TWI699727B - Apparatus and method for estimate fund risk - Google Patents

Abstract

An apparatus and a method for estimate a fund risk are provided. The apparatus for estimate the fund risk includes: a display, displaying an input interface; a storage device, storing the input interface, a bathtub curve module and an income-expenditure diagram module; and a processor, coupled to the storage device and the display. The processor executes the input interface to display the input interface in the display and receives the plurality of input data through the input interface. The processor executes the bathtub curve module and the income-expenditure diagram module to generate a bathtub curve and a warning diagram by using the input data respectively. The processor generates a system interface and links to the bathtub curve and the warning diagram in the system interface.

Description

Fund risk assessment device and method

The present invention relates to a new venture risk assessment, and particularly relates to a capital risk assessment device and method.

For new entrepreneurs with limited resources, it is most important to grasp the risk of business decision-making. In the past, operators mostly relied on various business operation reports, or collected necessary information through professional manager data sources, such as field investigations by commissioners, past experience, various historical documents, or oral information from relevant personnel, and integrated them into demand Data or charts, and finally the operating results can be known through the rule of thumb or cost settlement method, and the possible financial risks of the operating process cannot be estimated in time. However, after data collection or integration of data charts, new entrepreneurs cannot understand the capital gap risk by intuitive numerical measurement. Secondly, the industry needs to collect a lot of data and compare with internal supporting data to get a clearer risk confirmation result. Third, even with all kinds of commercial data, the evaluation results may still be biased in the selection of data, resulting in incorrect evaluation results, leading to failure to put forward risk management strategies to control the probability of bankruptcy caused by insufficient funds.

The present invention provides a capital risk assessment device and method, which can estimate the risk level of projects (projects) that are expected to fail during the new venture operation period.

The capital risk assessment device of the present invention includes: a display, a display input interface; a storage device that stores an input interface, a bathtub curve module, and a revenue and expenditure graph module; and a processor, coupled to the storage device and the display , The processor executes the input interface to display the input interface in the display, and receives multiple input data through the input interface; and the processor executes the bathtub curve module and the revenue and expenditure graph module to generate the bathtub curve separately by using the input data And the early warning diagram; the processor generates the system interface, and links to the bathtub curve and the early warning diagram in the system interface.

In an embodiment of the present invention, the bathtub curve module described above uses Weibull Distribution to generate a bathtub curve.

In an embodiment of the present invention, the above-mentioned processor switches the bathtub curve and the warning map in the system interface based on an operation.

In an embodiment of the present invention, the storage device further includes a design specification sample, and the processor uses the design specification sample to determine whether the format of the input data received through the input interface is correct.

In an embodiment of the present invention, the aforementioned input data includes fund dynamic date, occurrence status, actual/simulated category, income and expenditure amount, and fund dynamic category.

The capital risk assessment method of the present invention includes: receiving multiple input data through an input interface; using the input data to generate a bathtub curve and an early warning chart; and The system interface is generated and linked to the bathtub curve and warning diagram in the system interface.

Based on the above, the present invention uses the Bathtub Curve to analyze and describe the service failure (degree of reliability) and possible life (time segment) of each service organization, and uses the early warning graph to remind new ventures to pay attention to the flow of funds dynamic.

In order to make the above-mentioned features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the following specific embodiments are described in detail in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

100: Capital risk assessment device

110: display

120: storage device

121: input interface

122: bathtub curve module

123: Revenue and Expenditure Chart Module

124: Fund Simulation Module

130: processor

S205~S215: Steps of capital risk assessment method

301~307: field

601~604, 701~704: curve

700: safe water level

A, B: Option

Fig. 1 is a block diagram of a capital risk assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating capital risk according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an input interface according to an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 4A is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve during early death according to an embodiment of the present invention.

4B is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve in a plateau period according to an embodiment of the present invention.

4C is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve in a tasteless stage according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a system interface for displaying a bathtub curve according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of a system interface displaying an early warning diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a system interface displaying an early warning diagram according to another embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 1 is a block diagram of a capital risk assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention. The capital risk assessment device 100 is designed in the manner of commercial simulators (Interpretive Simulations) to be used as a simulation system for group decision-making. It provides multiple interfaces such as simple capital actual dynamic data records and the system automatically generates various business models, so that new venture members can always Grasp the financial dynamics and record the measures taken in response to the challenge model as a basis for self-examination and discussion of new ventures.

Please refer to FIG. 1, the capital risk assessment device 100 includes a display 110, a storage device 120 and a processor 130. The processor 130 is coupled to the display 110 and the storage device 120.

The display 110 may be any type of display, such as a cathode ray tube (Cathode Ray Tube, CRT) display, a liquid crystal display (Liquid Crystal Display, LCD), a plasma display (Plasma Display), a light-emitting diode (Light-Emitting Diode, LED) display, Field Emission Display (FED), etc. The display 110 may also be a touch screen combined with a touch module.

The storage device 120 is, for example, any type of fixed or removable random access memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), read-only memory (Read-Only Memory, ROM), flash memory (Flash memory), hard disk Dish or other similar device or combination of these devices. The storage device 120 stores an input interface 121, a bathtub curve module 122, a revenue and expenditure graph module 123, and a capital simulation module 124. The above-mentioned input interface 121, bathtub curve module 122, income and expenditure chart module 123 and capital simulation The module 124 is composed of one or more code snippets. After the code snippets are installed, they will be executed by the processor 130 to implement the following capital risk assessment method.

The input interface 121 is used for receiving multiple input data. The bathtub curve module 122 is used to generate a bathtub curve. The revenue and expenditure graph module 123 is used to generate an early warning graph. The fund simulation module 124 is used to generate a simulated income and expenditure amount by using similar investments.

The processor 130 is, for example, a central processing unit (CPU), a physical processing unit (PPU), a programmable microprocessor (Microprocessor), an embedded control chip, and a digital signal processor (Digital Signal Processor). Processor, DSP), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) or other similar devices.

Fig. 2 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating capital risk according to an embodiment of the present invention. Please refer to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2 at the same time. In step S205, multiple pieces of input data are received through the input interface 121. That is, the processor 130 first executes the input interface 121 to display the input interface 121 on the display 110, and receives multiple input data through the input interface 121. The storage device 120 further includes a design specification sample, and the processor 130 uses the design specification sample to determine whether the format of the input data received through the input interface 121 is correct. A sample design specification is shown in Table 1.

The input interface 121 can receive multiple pieces of input data according to the specifications shown in Table 1, for example. These input data include capital dynamic date, occurrence status, actual/simulated category, income and expenditure amount, and capital dynamic category.

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an input interface according to an embodiment of the invention. FIG. 3 shows part of the input interface 121. Please also refer to Table 1. The input interface 121 includes 7 fields 301~307. The field 301 is used to receive the fund dynamic date, and its format is year-month-day. The field 302 is used to receive the occurrence status. As shown in Table 1, the field 302 is used to indicate that the input has occurred, or is receivable/payable. The field 303 is used to receive the actual/simulated category. For example, the input is the actual income and expenditure status or the simulated income and expenditure status generated by the fund simulation module 124. The field 304 is used to receive the actual income and expenditure amount or the simulated income and expenditure amount. The field 305 is used to receive which type of capital dynamics the input belongs to. The dynamic categories of funds are shown in Table 1. Column 306 shows the dynamics of funds Clear, for example, display the text description of "Funds Expiration (Bathtub Curve)". The field 307 is used to display the corresponding strategy response description. For example, the storage device 120 also includes a database. After receiving an amount of revenue and expenditure through the field 304, the corresponding policy response description can be obtained by looking up the table. The numbers in the field 307 respectively represent different strategy response instructions.

After receiving multiple input data, in step S210, the input data is used to generate a bathtub curve and an early warning map. Here, the bathtub curve module 122 generates a bathtub curve. The income and expenditure graph module 123 generates an early warning graph. In addition, the capital simulation module 124 is used to calculate the simulated income and expenditure amount corresponding to each actual income and expenditure amount.

After that, in step S215, a system interface is generated and linked to the bathtub curve and the warning map in the system interface. In addition, based on an operation, the bathtub curve and the warning diagram can be switched in the system interface.

The bathtub curve module 122 uses Weibull Distribution to generate a bathtub curve. New ventures are value propositions put forward by new entrants to the market. Most of them already have hypothetical competing objects and their products and services, but they also lack market awareness, consumer preference, and product and service channels, as well as various resource constraints. , So it has a certain degree of risk. If this new business is regarded as a Service Mechanism, the various risk factors can be compared to the Failure Factors that caused this service mechanism. In the field of Reliability Engineering, a bathtub curve is often used to describe the failure process of each service. The bathtub curve describes the service failure process with three major trends, including the early death period (early failure period), the plateau period and the tasteless period. In the early death period, new ventures are based on capital Source restrictions and market misplacement are extremely risky. It is necessary to gradually improve the business environment and expand the market to gradually reduce the capital risk. During the stable period, the value proposition of the new venture has certain market support, and the risk reduction stabilizes to a certain level. In the tasteless period, the market has become saturated and faced with many rivals, and price has become the only effective demand. New ventures can only profit by expanding the scale of the economy, and there is no other way out, so the operating risk is gradually increasing.

The Weber distribution is the theoretical basis for reliability analysis and life testing. The Weber distribution is a continuous probability distribution, and its probability density is:

Through the scale parameter α, shape parameter β and position parameter γ, the state of each period of the bathtub curve can be described. For example, β=0.5 at the early death stage, β=1 at the plateau stage, and β=3 at the chicken rib stage. In the following example, the given scale parameter is α=1, and two parameters of different shapes and positions are respectively assigned, and the bathtub curve of each period is drawn as shown in Figure 3A~Figure 3C.

FIG. 4A is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve during early death according to an embodiment of the present invention. 4B is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve in a plateau period according to an embodiment of the present invention. 4C is a schematic diagram of a bathtub curve in a tasteless stage according to an embodiment of the present invention. In Fig. 4A, given shape parameter β=0.5, position parameter γ=0. In Fig. 4B, given shape parameter β=1, position parameter γ=3. In Fig. 4C, given shape parameter β=3, position parameter γ=0.

At the same time, the funds held in each period of the new venture s(t) is the difference between the funds held in the previous period s(t-1) and the current depletion ε(t), where τ is the capital invested at the beginning of the period and t is the number of periods. General formula (1).

If the value of the loss ε(t) in each period is plotted as a Scatter Plot, and the distribution is observed as shown in the aforementioned bathtub curve, it indicates that the new venture is at the corresponding stage. For example, in the early death period, if the loss of each period gradually decreases, it means that the new venture is moving towards a stable period; otherwise, there is a risk of unprofitable. Expansion (1) shows that the function of holding funds in each period is as follows, when the holding funds in a certain period are exhausted, the accumulated depletion value of each period is the initial investment of funds; therefore, the depletion function of each period is also the slope of the bathtub curve -As shown in the differential of formula (3), the closer the β value is to 0 or the greater than 1, it will affect the number of periods entering or leaving the plateau. At the same time, if the number of periods required for the development of a new venture can be estimated, the initial investment scale can be estimated according to formula (2). If the initial investment scale is too small, the funds held in the previous periods will be overly optimistic The depletion estimate is exhausted, so that it enters a high-risk period in advance, and even closes.

In this embodiment, the position parameter γ is preset to 0, and the scale parameter α is substituted into the cost of each period (that is, the actual income and expenditure amount in the input data), so that the shape parameter β can be calculated. The slope of a period can be used to obtain the early death period (β=0.5), or the plateau period (β=1), or the tasteless period (β=1). It is estimated that the funds can last a few periods. Here, the pre-determined early death period for new ventures is β=0.5, however, this is only an example, not based on this Is limited. As shown in FIG. 5, FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a system interface for displaying a bathtub curve according to an embodiment of the present invention. Including option A and option B in the system interface. Option A is used to switch the display screen to the bathtub curve, and option B is used to switch the display screen to the warning diagram.

To obtain the parameters of the bathtub curve formed by the loss of each period, given the approximate values of the estimated scale parameters and shape parameters, you can use GNU-R code to preset the position parameter γ to 0, and output the scale parameter α and shape The approximate value of the parameter β. The GNU-R code used is to reference the library MASS(library(MASS)), and call the function fitdistr, fitdistr(data.wei,densfun=dweibull,start=list(scale=1,shape=2) ), where data.wei is the loss vector of each period.

At the same time, if it is necessary to verify whether the loss vector of the subsequent periods is still consistent with the specified bathtub curve, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov verification method can be used to calculate it. For example, reference the library (vcd), call the function ks.test(data.wei,"pweibull",scale=1,shape=2) in the library, where data.wei is the loss vector of each period. The GNU-R code default position parameter γ is 0, which can be used to output the verification result.

New ventures should pay attention to the wear and tear trend of each period, estimate the bathtub curve parameters so far, and understand the current development process and actively respond. Calculate the bathtub curve slope under known parameters to estimate when to enter or leave the plateau; at the same time, through the bathtub curve verification to track whether the subsequent periods of wear are still in the same process.

Parent business spin-off or merger model

When the parent business is split or merged into a new business department to provide valuable products or services, the parent business will generally generate revenue from the parent business before the parent business has not determined its development process Among them, a certain amount of regular funding for new ventures is regarded as part of the income of new ventures, and new ventures make a part of their own profits. At the same time, there are expenditures for the development of the company and the realization of the strategy, and new businesses are waiting to be done, resulting in a loss of net profit in each period. When the net profit reduction rate in each period increases, it will be in a dilemma. For the parent industry, the scale of cumulative capital injection will influence subsequent strategic planning. Therefore, this model will focus on the impact of the net profit reduction rate on the cumulative capital injection. For ease of illustration, assume that the number of periods is t and the fixed amount of regular funding from the parent industry is τ , The current income impairment is ε(t), and the holding funds are s(t). At the same time, when the initial time, that is, t=0, the holding funds and income impairment are both 0, so formula (4) is derived.

The current holding funds are the sum of the previous holding funds, the amount of regular injections, and the current income impairment; therefore, the value of each period is brought into the general formula to derive the holding funds function, as shown in equation (5). At the same time, it can be seen from equation (6) that when the accumulated holding funds in a certain period are exhausted, the average amount of accumulated income impairment will be close to the amount injected regularly.

Under this model, controlling the marginal value θ(t) of the income impairment of each period within a certain range k(t) is an important principle for the new venture to maintain financial stability or not to deteriorate; that is, the income loss of each period The marginal value is the difference between the previous two periods of income impairment, so the formula (7) is obtained. The income impairment rate of each period to be controlled, k(t), is the difference between the marginal value of the income impairment of the previous and subsequent periods, so Get formula (8).

It can be seen from equation (8) that the income impairment rate of each period k(t) is a function of income impairment, and in the simplified model, it is assumed that the slope of the bathtub curve in the early death period is a constant, that is, the income impairment rate of each period is constant k , So bring in the value of each period to expand, that is, to deduce the law of each period to get formula (9).

It can be seen from equation (9) that when the income impairment rate is constant, the income impairment of each period increases with the slope of 2k linear relationship; at the same time, combined with equation (5), that is, equation (10) is derived as the function of holding funds.

Fund level model

When the new venture gradually enters a stable period, the business model and commodity service are not Before innovating again, the demand for funds tended to stay above a certain level. In practice, under this situation, the parent industry or the new venture itself has no reason to continue to increase capital. Therefore, the function of holding funds in each period degenerates into a constant, which can be regarded as the concept of business scale. The difference between invested capital and income loss is close to this constant. That is to say, when the income is high, you can take the opportunity to expand the scale or improve the quality. On the contrary, you should think about reducing expenditure and keep an eye on the competition in the industry to see if you are in a tasteless period. Therefore, the previous example is extended, assuming that the number of periods is t, the holding funds (fund level) constant is s, the amount of funding changes in each period of the parent industry is τ(t), and the current income deduction is ε(t). That is, t=0, the difference between the amount of subsidy change and the income impairment is the holding capital constant, so formula (11) is derived.

During this period, the amount of subsidy changes in each period is determined according to the change in income impairment, and the bathtub curve of income impairment is incorporated into equation (11) to derive equation (12). It is flexibly observed whether the average ε and standard deviation σ of each period of income impairment are within the allowable range of parent industry funding, as shown in equations (13) and (14).

The fund level model is used to assess whether the income and expenditure status is stable. A large variance represents a high degree of dispersion and stable income and expenditure. In this stable period, new businesses continue to strive to create value and control expenditures within the allowable range, and then maintain holdings of funds above a certain level. If the sales of goods or services expand and the slope of income loss decreases sharply, an expansion strategy can be adopted to expand the distribution of channels or develop the next-level innovative products and services; on the contrary, the competitive environment should be examined and whether the main reason for the increase in income loss is Whether it is due to competition within the industry or the pricing of the quality of goods and services, to determine whether it has entered a tasteless period, and to adopt corresponding strategies to respond.

The income and expenditure graph module 123 generates an early warning graph based on the actual income and expenditure amount and the simulated income and expenditure amount. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of a system interface displaying an early warning diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention. The early warning diagram shown in FIG. 6 is an embodiment of no safety warning reminder. In Figure 6, the option B is used to switch the display screen of the system interface to the warning diagram. Among them, curve 601 represents actual expenditure, curve 602 represents simulated expenditure, curve 603 represents actual income, and curve 604 represents simulated income. The start and end dates of simulated income/expenses will be different from the start and end dates of actual income/expenses. For example, if it is expected that Case A will be executed on November 1st, but the contracting date of Case A will be delayed and the execution will only start on December 5th. Therefore, the related expenses and income will be different from the expected date after the execution. .

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a system interface displaying an early warning diagram according to another embodiment of the present invention. The early warning diagram shown in FIG. 7 is an embodiment with a safety warning reminder. Curve 701 represents actual expenditure, curve 702 represents simulated expenditure, curve 703 represents actual income, and curve 704 represents simulated income. The safety water level 700 is a safety balance warning. Since the actual cash flow (excluding receivables) balance is lower than the cash safety amount established by the company at the beginning, the safety level of 700 is used to warn the company that the inventory is insufficient, and it is necessary to seek financial assistance as soon as possible, otherwise there will be a financial crisis . In this embodiment, the safety water level 700 Located between July 2nd, 2016 and July 3rd, 2016, its meaning is that there are 24 hours a day, and you need to pay attention to the day (24 hours) on July 2nd, and it will send a warning notice accordingly (Email or SMS) The time given to the person in charge, for example, 12 noon on that day.

In summary, the present invention uses the Weber distribution and bathtub curve of the reliability engineering method to evaluate the failure factors of the new venture development service, and to estimate the project that is expected to fail during the new venture business period. (Project) The degree of possible risk. The following effects can be obtained by using the above-mentioned embodiment. As income continues to grow in accordance with the incurred and accounts receivable trends, it is possible to examine how new ventures use funds to develop their businesses. In the case of expenditures in accordance with the incurred and accounts payable trends, it is possible to examine how new ventures adjust their business scale. When R&D is not going well and the cost index is inflated, you can review how new ventures adjust R&D strategies. In the case of an exponential inflation of salary costs, you can examine how new ventures use people's strategies. In the case of fixed asset expenditure exponential expansion, you can examine how new ventures adjust equipment investment strategies. In the case of sudden and unexpected other expenditures, you can review how new ventures adjust their capital scheduling strategies. In addition, the use of safe water level warnings can remind users whether they are currently on the verge of bankruptcy.

Although the present invention has been disclosed in the above embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention. Anyone with ordinary knowledge in the relevant technical field can make some changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. The scope of protection of the present invention shall be subject to those defined by the attached patent scope.

100: Capital risk assessment device

110: display

120: storage device

121: input interface

122: bathtub curve module

123: Revenue and Expenditure Chart Module

124: Fund Simulation Module

130: processor

Claims (8)

A capital risk assessment device includes: a display that displays an input interface; a storage device that stores the input interface, a capital simulation module, a bathtub curve module, and a revenue and expenditure graph module; and a processor, Coupled to the storage device and the display, the processor executes the input interface to display the input interface on the display, and receives multiple input data through the input interface, wherein the input data includes a fund dynamic date, An occurrence status, an actual/simulated category, a revenue and expenditure amount, and a fund dynamic category, where the revenue and expenditure amount corresponding to the simulation category includes the simulated revenue and expenditure amount, and the revenue and expenditure amount corresponding to the actual category includes the actual revenue The processor executes the fund simulation module to calculate the simulated revenue and expenditure amount corresponding to the actual revenue and expenditure amount, and inputs the simulated revenue and expenditure amount to the input interface; and the processor executes the bathtub curve Module and the revenue and expenditure diagram module to use the input data to generate a bathtub curve and to generate an early warning diagram based on the actual revenue and expenditure amount and the simulated revenue and expenditure amount, wherein the early warning diagram includes a safety balance warning, and the The processor sends a warning notification corresponding to the safety balance warning; the processor generates a system interface and links to the bathtub curve and the warning map in the system interface. The capital risk assessment device described in the first item of the patent application, wherein the bathtub curve module uses a Weber distribution to generate the bathtub curve. As described in the first item of the scope of patent application, the processor is based on an operation, and the bathtub curve and the prediction The police map is switched. For example, the capital risk assessment device described in item 1 of the scope of patent application, wherein the storage device further includes a design specification sample, and the processor uses the design specification sample to determine whether the format of the input data received through the input interface is correct. A method of capital risk assessment includes: receiving multiple input data through an input interface, wherein the input data includes a capital dynamic date, an occurrence status, an actual/simulated category, a revenue and expenditure amount, and a capital dynamic category, The input data corresponding to the simulation category includes the simulated income and expenditure amount, and the input data corresponding to the actual category includes the actual income and expenditure amount. After calculating the simulated income and expenditure amount corresponding to the actual income and expenditure amount , Input the simulated income and expenditure amount to the input interface; use the input data to generate a bathtub curve and generate an early warning graph based on the actual income and expenditure amount and the simulated income and expenditure amount, wherein the early warning graph includes a safety balance warning, and Send a warning notice corresponding to the safety balance warning; and generate a system interface, and link to the bathtub curve and the warning graph in the system interface. The capital risk assessment method described in item 5 of the scope of patent application, wherein the bathtub curve is generated using a Weber distribution. For example, the fund risk assessment method described in item 5 of the scope of patent application further includes: based on an operation, performing the bathtub curve and the early warning map in the system interface Switch. The capital risk assessment method described in item 5 of the scope of patent application further includes: using a design specification sample to determine whether the format of the input data received through the input interface is correct.

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