TWI469079B - A Method, System,and Computer Program Product for Security Evaluation - Google Patents

Description

Evaluation method, system, and computer program product of securities investment value

The present invention relates to securities investment, and more specifically relates to methods and systems for quantitatively evaluating the value of securities investment, and computer program products for storing securities processing programs.

With the rapid development of digital media and information technology, people often do not know where to start with the huge amount of market information. At present, the conventional technology requires investors to spend a lot of time collecting the relevant information of the inductive securities, and also requires investors to set or calculate various parameters (such as estimated earnings per share, estimated price-earnings ratio, etc.) for the value of securities investment. Evaluation, but some evaluation parameters are not only difficult to determine for the average individual investor, but even the scope of the parameters is not clear, and the applicability of the value of the securities investment evaluated is inevitably greatly reduced.

Most individual investors do not have a complete investment structure or investment process as professional legal entities. Many retail investors invest in the securities market, always chasing up and killing, hope to get rich instantly, or listen to the news of friends and relatives in the media to get something for nothing, the mentality belongs to Speculation, not investment, makes it easy to make investment decisions based on sensibility rather than rationality, and it also creates the inevitable result of long-term compensation and less profit.

As recommended by the investment pioneer Pinja Han (Benjamin Graham) Righteousness: "Investment refers to the act of ensuring the security of the principal and obtaining satisfactory remuneration after thorough analysis." In addition to the cash dividend, the "satisfied remuneration" includes the capital gain of the principal. No matter how much the rate of return is, as long as the investor is willing to accept it after reasonable analysis, it can be established.

The main concept of value investing is based on two core principles: Margin of Safety and diversified investment; value-for-money securities can provide a margin of safety for all kinds of mistakes, miscalculations, bad luck, or economic and financial market adversity. Separate investment; diversification can protect the downside risk of the entire portfolio and reduce the impact of unpredictable results on a single security.

However, it is difficult for individual investors to implement the sound investment principles in the unpredictable securities market. In particular, in accordance with the principle of value stock investment, it is not only usually held for a long time, but may wait for several years. Only encountered the appropriate target. One of the main reasons is that traditional technology lacks clear and specific investment tools that allow investors to follow investment disciplines that ensure safety margins and build portfolios for robust long-term investments.

The valuation of securities is the premise and core of value investment, and it is also a diversified investment problem. After finding a company with long-term competitive advantage, investors must try to quantitatively evaluate the intrinsic value of the company and compare it with the market price of the securities issued by the company. Further, it is necessary to compare the relative value between the securities as the investment location. The trade-off criteria for weight assignment.

The analysis of the intrinsic value of a company is very important. It provides an important basis for rational judgment in assessing the relative attractiveness of securities. It is a value based on facts (such as shareholders' equity, net profit, cash dividends, etc.) and is completely different from being susceptible to human manipulation. And market prices affected by psychological factors. But undeniably, market prices are fundamental factors affecting the value of investment from beginning to end; in particular, the margin of safety is mainly determined by the price paid by investors: the higher the transaction price, the smaller the margin of safety. From this It is known that price is an important factor in determining investment performance, as Buffett emphasizes; "A company with a good constitution may also be a bad investment, as long as the price of the purchase is too high."

On the other hand, one of the main assumptions of the well-known Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is that investors have the same expectation of return on investment; but in practice, even if they evaluate the same securities, they control hundreds of millions. Professional investors of funds and retail investors of small investments may differ in their expectations of the rate of return required.

All investment results depend to some extent on the future. The theoretically most recognized valuation framework is the cash flow discount model proposed by John Burr Williams in 1942: the value of any stock, bond, or other type of security, depending on the company that issued the securities is expected throughout the life The discounted value of the cash flow that can be generated. But in practice, it is difficult to assess the company's net cash flow for decades.

In order to solve the feasibility and immediacy of the valuation of securities, the practice community has developed a number of evaluation methods. The use of a single indicator has a partial bias (for example, only paying attention to the P/E ratio, the stock price ratio, the stock price ratio, and the dividend). Yield, return on capital, or return on equity), the information in the recent financial statements will make the investment direction too short-sighted (for example, only refer to the data of the most recent year or the most recent quarter), and only consider the company's future development estimates Figures are easy to ignore the correlation of the company's past business performance (such as estimated price-to-earnings ratio, estimated earnings growth rate, estimated revenue growth rate, or PEG index is the price-earnings ratio divided by the expected earnings growth rate per share).

Like the economist John. Keynes said: "I would rather be roughly correct, and not precise mistakes." Although the value of an enterprise depends on a number of variables, there is no single indicator that can show the whole picture; but the more complex the investment evaluation model or the more evaluation factors, the easier it is to make a difference. how is it It is also an important issue for investors to use the relatively important key factors to evaluate the investment value of securities in countless value variables.

On the other hand, the quantitative analysis of the value of securities helps to rationally judge the relative value of the investment value of securities and securities, improve the ability of investors to think independently, reduce the influence of herd mentality, and in the turbulent changes of market sentiment from time to time. Profit.

At present, the conventional technology lacks a sound investment structure, which can highlight the correlation between the company's past business performance and future value-added potential. There is also no systematic quantitative investment method that can simplify the investment value of securities and securities between a few key factors. Relative value can be applied to most securities, allowing investors to focus on long-term investment performance rather than arbitrarily buying and selling short-term trading.

In view of the shortcomings of the above-mentioned investment analysis of the securities, the inventor of the present invention has improved and innovated, so that investors can objectively and comprehensively evaluate the investment value of securities.

In view of the above problems of the prior art, the object of the present invention is to provide a sound investment structure with key evaluation factors, and to implement the concept of value analysis in the securities investment value evaluation method, system, and computer program product of the present invention. It can highlight the company's long-term business performance and future value-added potential, and can quantitatively and quantitatively analyze the investment value of securities and the relative value between securities. Another object of the present invention is to simplify the workload and time cost of investors, and to improve the quality of evaluating the reasonable value of securities, to strengthen the ability of investors to think independently, and to focus on fundamentals in order to conduct long-term investment in selected investment targets.

To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the value of a securities investment, comprising the steps of: establishing a securities database containing a plurality of securities, the securities database storing securities information of the plurality of securities, and the securities data may include financial accounting materials And historical P/E ratio; at least one pre-selected securities may be selected on the evaluation date, and the pre-selected securities may be included in the securities database; the value factor of the pre-selected securities may be generated according to the financial accounting information of the pre-selected securities, and the value factor may include historical shareholders' equity remuneration Rate, historical cash dividend allotment rate, base year shareholder equity and base year earnings per share; base year can be composed of four quarters, which can be consecutive for financial accounting data before the evaluation date Four quarters; the evaluation factor for the pre-selected securities in the multiple-predicted year after the base year can be generated based on the value factor of the pre-selected securities, which can include the expected earnings per share, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder equity per share; Based on the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities and the expected P/E ratio to generate the plural Annual estimates of the expected price in the last year; earnings ratio is expected to be generated by the historical price-earnings ratio.

Financial accounting information may include shareholders' equity, earnings per share and cash dividend per share for the multiple historical years prior to the date of assessment.

The expected P/E ratio can be the average or median of the P/E ratio for the historical year prior to the assessment date, or the P/E ratio for the base year.

The foregoing evaluation factors may be generated by: the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year after the base year may be generated by the base year earnings per share and the historical cash dividend allotment rate; the first estimated year may be based on the benchmark The first year that does not overlap with the base year from the beginning of the year; the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year may be generated by the shareholder's equity per share and the historical return on equity of the base year; Shareholders' equity may be generated by the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year, and the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; The expected cash dividend per share for the second forecast year after the base year can be generated from the expected earnings per share and the historical cash dividend allotment rate for the first forecast year; the second forecast year can be calculated from the base year to the future. The second year of overlap with the first forecast year; the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year may be generated by the expected shareholder's equity per share and the historical return on equity for the first estimated year; and the second forecast year The expected shareholder's equity per share is generated by the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year, the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year, and the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year.

The method of evaluation may include setting or selecting the required rate of return, based on the required rate of return, the number of years in the complex year, and the expected price per share of the pre-selected securities and the expected price of the last year of the complex year. The reasonable value of the securities; the required rate of return may be a predetermined value greater than zero. The required rate of return can be generated by using a menu method or a method of filling. The reasonable value of the pre-selected securities can take into account both the capital gains of the expected price and the cash flow of the expected cash dividends.

The securities information re-integration may include the market price, which may be based on the market price of the pre-selected securities and the reasonable value to generate a value ratio.

The securities information reconciliation may include the market price, which may generate the expected remuneration of the pre-selected securities based on the market price of the pre-selected securities, the expected cash dividend per share, the expected price in the last year of the complex forecast year, and the number of years in the complex forecast year. rate. Investors can use the expected rate of return to estimate the absolute investment value of a single security or compare the relative investment value between different securities.

The historical return on equity may be the average or median of the return on equity of the plural historical year prior to the assessment date, or the return on equity of the base year.

The historical return on equity can be generated using a menu method or a method of filling.

It is expected that the P/E ratio can be generated using a menu method or a filling method.

In addition, the present invention provides a computer program product for storing a securities information processing program for evaluating the value of a securities investment, loading the program via a computer and performing the following steps: linking a securities database containing a plurality of securities, a securities database The securities information of the plurality of securities may be stored, the securities information may include financial accounting materials and historical price-earnings ratio; at least one pre-selected securities may be selected on the evaluation date, the pre-selected securities may be included in the securities database; and the financial accounting may be based on the pre-selected securities The data generates a value factor for the pre-selected securities. The value factor may include the historical return on equity, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year may consist of four quarters. The four quarters may be four consecutive quarters of financial accounting information available before the evaluation date; the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities in the multiple-predicted year after the base year may be generated based on the value factor of the pre-selected securities, and the evaluation factor may include the expected earnings per share. Surplus, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity And a basis for assessing expected price-earnings ratio factor and the preselected securities to generate a plurality of estimates last year expected price in the year; PE ratio is expected to be generated by the historical price-earnings ratio.

Financial accounting information may include shareholders' equity, earnings per share and cash dividend per share for the multiple historical years prior to the date of assessment.

The expected P/E ratio can be the average or median of the P/E ratio for the historical year prior to the assessment date, or the P/E ratio for the base year.

The foregoing evaluation factors may be generated by: the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year after the base year may be generated by the base year earnings per share and the historical cash dividend allotment rate; the first estimated year may be based on the benchmark The first year that does not overlap with the base year from the beginning of the year; the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year may be the shareholder's equity per share and the historical shareholder's equity remuneration for the base year The expected annual shareholder's equity of the first estimated year may be generated by the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year, and the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; The expected cash dividend per share for the second forecast year after the base year can be generated from the expected earnings per share and the historical cash dividend allotment rate for the first forecast year; the second forecast year can be calculated from the base year to the future. The second year of overlap with the first forecast year; the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year may be generated by the expected shareholder's equity per share and the historical return on equity for the first estimated year; and the second forecast year The expected shareholder's equity per share is generated by the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year, the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year, and the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year.

The execution of the program may include: setting or selecting the required rate of return, based on the required rate of return, the number of years in the complex year, and the expected price per share of the pre-selected securities and the expected price of the last year of the complex year. A reasonable value of the pre-selected security may be generated; the required rate of return may be a predetermined value greater than zero.

The securities information re-integration may include the market price, which may be based on the market price of the pre-selected securities and a reasonable value to generate a value ratio.

The securities information re-integration may include the market price, and may generate the expected remuneration of the pre-selected securities based on the market price of the pre-selected securities, the expected cash dividend per share, the expected price in the last year of the complex forecast year, and the number of years in the complex forecast year. rate.

The historical return on equity may be the average or median of the return on equity of the plural historical year prior to the assessment date, or the return on equity of the base year.

The historical return on equity can be generated using a menu method or a method of filling.

It is expected that the P/E ratio can be generated using a menu method or a filling method.

Furthermore, the present invention provides a securities information system for quantifying the investment value of a security, which may include: a securities database that stores securities information of a plurality of securities, and the securities information may include financial accounting materials and a historical P/E ratio; The securities information processing subsystem may be linked to the securities database, which may include: a securities service sub-system, which may be used to select at least one pre-selected security on the evaluation date; the data retrieval and storage sub-system may be based on the securities service sub-system The pre-selected securities are selected to retrieve the securities data of the pre-selected securities from the securities database; and the sub-subsystem of the securities evaluation may be linked to the data retrieval and storage sub-system, which may include: a value factor module, which can be retrieved according to the data The financial accounting information of the pre-selected securities provided by the secondary subsystem is generated, and the value factor of the pre-selected securities is generated. The value factors may include the historical return on equity, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share in the base year, and the base year. Earnings per share; the base year can consist of four quarters, which can be The evaluation factor module can generate the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities in the complex forecast year after the base year based on the value factor provided by the value factor module. The evaluation factor can include the expected factor. Earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity per share; and the securities information module, based on the evaluation factor and expected price-earnings ratio provided by the factor module to generate the last year of the complex year Expected price; the expected P/E ratio can be generated by the historical P/E ratio provided by the data retrieval and storage subsystem.

The securities information of the securities database may further include the market price. The securities information module may be based on the expected price of the pre-selected securities in the last year of the complex forecast year, the market price provided by the data retrieval and storage sub-system, and the evaluation factor. The expected cash dividend per share provided by the module and the number of years in the complex forecast year to generate the expected rate of return on the pre-selected securities.

The securities service sub-system may further include: a condition setting module, which may set or select a required rate of return, and the required rate of return may be a predetermined value greater than zero; the securities information module may be based on the last of the pre-selected securities in the plural forecast year. The expected price for the year, the required rate of return provided by the condition setting module, the expected cash dividend per share provided by the factor module and the number of years in the complex forecast year to generate a reasonable value for the pre-selected securities.

The securities information of the securities database may further include the market price, and the securities information module may generate a value ratio based on the market value of the pre-selected securities and the market price provided by the data retrieval and storage sub-system.

The securities service sub-system may further include: a display interface module, which can display the plurality of values greater than zero provided by the condition setting module in a menu manner; and an operation interface module, which is one of the options available for selecting the menu To generate the required rate of return.

The securities service sub-system may further comprise: a display interface module, wherein the first ratio of the plurality of reasonable values provided by the condition setting module is displayed in a menu manner, the first ratio is less than one; and the operation interface module, pre-selected securities The purchase reference price is generated by the securities information module according to one of the options and the reasonable value of the operation interface module selection menu.

The display interface module can display the second ratio of the plurality of reasonable values provided by the condition setting module in a menu manner, the second ratio is greater than or equal to one; and the pre-selected securities selling reference price is based on the operation interface of the securities information module. The module selects one of the options and a reasonable value to generate.

In summary, the present invention utilizes a reasonable value evaluation certificate by the evaluation method of the securities investment value of the present invention, the computer program product of the internal securities information processing program, and the securities information system. The market price of the voucher is reasonable and uses the expected rate of return to guide the investor to buy or sell the securities in order to make the trade-off criteria for the portfolio. The invention can also be applied to a modified and improved reference to existing portfolios. Therefore, compared with the existing securities investment value evaluation method, the present invention utilizes the historical stock return rate of the enterprise, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder equity of the base year, and the earnings per share of the base year as a sound investment. The common value factor of the architecture, rather than just treating it as a single independent indicator, not only reduces the overall regret, but also achieves the effect of simplicity and complexity; and establishes an evaluation factor for the future appearance of the enterprise. By using the value factor established by historical financial accounting data related to the long-term business performance of the enterprise, avoiding investors' excessive optimism and causing investment losses; and adding the P/E ratio and the required rate of return to generate reasonable value, and then can also be combined The market price produces the expected rate of return to determine the rising space or downside of the stock price. It can not only evaluate the reasonable stock price of the securities and quantify the absolute investment value of the securities, but also evaluate the relative investment value between the securities, as an investment decision and investment discipline. Rational judgment criteria, focusing on long-term investment performance.

S11-S16‧‧‧Steps

21‧‧‧ Processor

23‧‧‧ memory

231‧‧‧ storage unit

232‧‧‧Storage interface

233‧‧‧Removable storage unit

24‧‧‧Output interface

241‧‧‧ display

25‧‧‧Input interface

251‧‧‧ Input components

26‧‧‧Communication interface

27‧‧‧Information Bus

28‧‧‧Application Server

29‧‧‧Communication network

30‧‧‧ Securities Information System

31‧‧‧ Securities Information Processing Subsystem

32‧‧‧Stock database

33‧‧‧Data retrieval and storage subsystem

35‧‧‧Securities service sub-system

36‧‧‧Securities Evaluation Subsystem

39‧‧‧Source of securities information

352‧‧‧ Condition setting module

356‧‧‧Operation interface module

358‧‧‧Display interface module

361‧‧‧ Value Factor Module

363‧‧‧Evaluation factor module

365‧‧‧ Securities Information Module

50‧‧‧ Stock Pick Summary Page

51‧‧‧ Condition setting page

52‧‧‧ Stock Information Page

56‧‧‧ Display screen

57‧‧‧Touch panel

58‧‧‧Required rate of return setting slider

59‧‧‧Expected P/E ratio setting menu button

501‧‧‧Condition setting button

502‧‧‧ stock information button

503‧‧‧Search block

504‧‧‧Search button

512‧‧‧ Stock Pick Summary Button

514‧‧‧ Conditions setting field for historical return on equity

515‧‧‧ Conditional setting field for historical cash dividend allotment rate

516‧‧‧ Expected P/E ratio setting field

517‧‧‧ Conditions setting field for rate of return

518‧‧‧Buy the reference price setting field

519‧‧‧Sell the reference price setting field

522‧‧‧ Stock Pick Summary Button

581‧‧‧Required rate of return setting button

591‧‧‧Preferences for the most recent year

592‧‧‧Two-year average P/E ratio setting button

593‧‧‧Three-year average P/E ratio setting button

594‧‧‧ four-year average P/E ratio setting button

595‧‧‧ Five-year average P/E ratio setting button

701‧‧‧ plural historical year before the evaluation date

702‧‧‧Base year

703‧‧‧Multiple Estimate Year after the Base Year

72‧‧‧ Value factor

721‧‧‧ historical return on equity

723‧‧‧Historical cash dividend allotment rate

725‧‧‧ Base year equity per share

727‧‧‧ earnings per share for the base year

73‧‧‧Evaluation factor

732‧‧‧ Expected earnings per share

734‧‧‧ Expected cash dividend per share

736‧‧‧ Expected shareholder equity per share

81‧‧‧Historical Return on Shares

82‧‧‧Historical Cash Dividend Distribution Rate Page

83‧‧‧Expected P/E page

84‧‧‧Required Rate of Return page

85‧‧‧Buy Reference Price Page

86‧‧‧Sell reference price page

[Fig. 1] is a flowchart of a method for evaluating the value of securities investment according to the present invention; [Fig. 2] is a system architecture diagram of a computer program product for evaluating a value of a securities investment according to the present invention; [Fig. 3] is a description The present invention is applied to a system block diagram of a securities investment evaluation method; [Fig. 4] is another system block diagram for describing the application of the present invention to a securities investment evaluation method; [Fig. 5] is a schematic view showing a preferred embodiment of the securities information page displayed by the mobile computing device of the present invention; [Fig. 6] is a stock selection description of the securities information page displayed by the mobile computing device of the present invention. A schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of a summary page; [FIG. 7] is a schematic diagram showing a preferred embodiment of a stock information page of the securities information page displayed by the mobile computing device of the present invention; [FIG. 8] is a description of the present invention. A schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of a condition setting page applied to a securities information page displayed by a mobile computing device; and [FIG. 9] depicting a stock selection summary page of the securities information page displayed by the mobile computing device of the present invention A schematic diagram of another preferred embodiment.

The following describes the technical contents of the evaluation method, system, and computer program product of the present invention applied to the securities investment by using specific embodiments and illustrations. Those skilled in the art can easily understand the present invention by the contents disclosed in the present specification. Other advantages and effects. The invention may also be embodied or applied by other different embodiments. The details of the present invention can be variously modified and changed using other components, structures, financial accounting materials, and ratios without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

The various embodiments of the invention described below may include specific features or special features. Sex, but not every embodiment includes this particular feature or characteristic. In this context, the computer is an electronic computing device such as, but not limited to, a personal computer, a tablet PC, a smart phone, a workstation, or a server.

In an embodiment of the invention, the computer may include at least a processor that may link to a bus. The computer may also be connected to the memory via a news bus, which includes but is not limited to a hard disk, a CD player, or a flash memory. The information bus may also be connected to the display and input interface of the output interface, such as but not limited to a touch panel, a mouse, a keyboard, or other input device.

In an embodiment of the invention, "processing," "calculating," "generating," may be used to represent an action or process on a computer or similar electronic computing device, representing operation or conversion of data. The "processor" may be treated as part of any device that processes electronic data from a scratchpad or memory.

Embodiments of the invention may include apparatus to perform operations. The device may be specially constructed for the required purposes, or may comprise a general purpose device selectively activated or reconfigured by a program stored in the device. The computer system and/or computer program product described will be described in the following embodiments.

The securities described in the present invention may include stocks, index stock funds, mutual funds, or other financial commodities having financial accounting materials for reference. The company or enterprise described in the present invention is a broad concept, such as a stock issue company, an issue company of an index stock fund in which an underlying stock is invested, and a issuer of a stock underlying stock in a mutual fund. The financial accounting materials described in the present invention may be directly obtained or calculated by the financial statements of the issuing company, and the financial statements may be quarterly reports, semi-annual reports, or annual reports. The year described in the embodiment is not limited to the calendar year or the fiscal year of the company's operation. For the four consecutive quarters, there is no overlapping quarter between the year and the year, and each quarter in the adjacent two years can be adjacent to one quarter in another. The surplus and net profit described in the present invention have substantially the same meaning, and both mean the profit of the company or the enterprise. The shareholders' equity described in the present invention has substantially the same meaning as the net value. The name of the securities described in the present invention may be a symbol of a securities issuing company's abbreviation, a securities code, or a securities code that can express the identity of the securities.

Please refer to FIG. 1 , which is a flowchart of a method for evaluating the value of a securities investment according to the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1 , firstly, step S11 is performed to collect securities information of a plurality of securities from a securities data source to establish a quantitative investment value of the securities. a securities database for storing securities information of a plurality of securities, the securities data may include financial accounting materials and historical PER _history ; in one embodiment, the plurality of securities may be securities exchanges and securities in Taiwan The stocks of publicly listed counters of counter trading centers and index stock funds (ETFs). The sources of securities information may be the public information observatories of Taiwan Stock Exchange, the financial statements of listed companies and corporate briefings, or related to financial information companies. Consolidate information.

In one embodiment, financial and accounting information may include shareholders per share before the assessment date the complex history of the Year (Y _i) interests in BVPS _i, earnings per share and cash dividend per share EPS _i CDPS _i.

In another embodiment, the financial and accounting information may include a plurality of shareholders prior to the valuation date historical annual (Y _i) of the net equity BV _i, net profit after tax Earing _i and the total amount of the cash dividend CD _i.

Wherein the index value i is an integer value from 0 to -m and m is a positive integer. The larger the index value i is, the closer the historical year is to the evaluation date, that is, Y ₀ represents the history closest to the evaluation date in the complex historical year. Year (also referred to herein as the base year), Y- _m represents the historical year that is the farthest from the assessment date in the plural historical year.

Historical PE ratio PER _history can assess days before the average PER _average or median PER _median annual earnings ratio of PER _i complex history of, or the base year Y ₀ of the PE ratio PER _0.

Before taking the median PER _median , the P/E ratio PER _i can be ranked as PERorder ₀ to PERorder _{-m in} order of magnitude, if m is even, then PER _median = PERorder _-m/2 ; if m is odd, then PER _median = (PERorder _{- (m-1)/2} + PERorder _{- (m + 1) / 2} )/2.

In one embodiment, the P/E ratio PER _{i for} each historical year Y _i is data that can be obtained directly from the company's financial statements.

In another embodiment, each year history of the PE ratio PER _i Y _i can be divided by earnings per share for the year Y _i in the history of the average share price; where the average share price for the securities available each year history in the Y _i The total transaction amount of the annual stock transaction divided by the total number of shares traded.

Next, step S12 is performed to select the pre-selected securities for which the investment value is to be evaluated on the evaluation date, the pre-selected securities are included in the securities database; the evaluation date may be any day using the securities evaluation method of the present invention.

In an embodiment, the preselected security may be selected by an input component of a computer device The name of the security of the pre-selected security is entered (eg, a keyboard or touch panel), which may be, but is not limited to, a security code (eg, 2330) or a stock short name (eg, TSMC).

In another embodiment, selecting the pre-selected security may be by clicking on the pre-selected security by an input component of the computer device (eg, a mouse or a touch panel), the pre-selected security being one of the options of the plurality of securities.

Next, step S13 is performed to quantify the value of the securities company's past operating performance, and the value factor of the pre-selected securities is generated based on the financial accounting information of the pre-selected securities. The value factor includes the historical return on equity ROEhistory, the historical cash dividend allotment rate CDRhistory , the benchmark annual Y ₀ shareholder equity BVPS ₀ and the base year Y ₀ earnings per share EPS ₀ , in this article, the base year Y ₀ can be composed of four quarters, the four quarters can be before the assessment date For the fourth consecutive quarter of financial accounting information, the value factor represents the value of the securities company's past operating performance.

The historical return on equity ROEhistory is the average ROE _average or the median ROE _median of the ROE _i of the plural historical year before the assessment date, or the ROE _{0 of the} base year, where the index value i is An integer value of 0 to - (m-1) and m is an integer. The larger the index value i is, the closer the historical year Y _{i is} to the evaluation date, and the historical year to which i=0 is the reference year Y ₀ .

In one embodiment, the return on equity ROE _{i for} each historical year Y _i is data that can be obtained directly from the company's financial statements.

In another embodiment, the return on equity of each historical year ROE _i Y _i Y _i for the history of annual earnings per share a history of previous EPS _i Annual share of the _i-1 Y _i-1 except BVPS interest, That is, ROE _i = EPS _i / BVPS _i-1 . Alternatively, the net income year history of Earing _i Y _i net of Y _i-1 shareholders' equity year history of a previous BV _{i-1, i.e., ROE i = Earing i / BV} i-1.

A plurality of return on equity year history ROE ROE _{average i} of the average value may be generated in two ways, as follows:

Before obtaining a median ROE _median, may be first rate in each historical year return on equity of ROE _i Y _i is ROEorder ₀ to ROEorder arranged by size order of _{- (m-1),} if m is odd, ROE _median = ROEorder _-(m-1)/2 ; if m is even, ROE _median =(ROEorder _-(m/2-1) +ROEorder _-m/2 )/2.

The historical return on equity can be generated using a menu method or a method of filling. The menu method may include a method of selecting a value such as a pull-down type, a scroll type, or a button type, but is not limited thereto. User can utilize the menu to select the conditions for evaluating the history of return on equity shareholders employed, e.g. seven average, i.e., when m = 7, return on equity seven year history ROE ROE _{average i} of the average value.

The historical cash dividend allotment rate CDRhistory is the average CDR _average of the CDR _i of the cash dividend allotment rate before the evaluation date, or the CDR _{0 of the} base year's cash dividend distribution rate, where the index value i is from 0 to - ( The integer value of m-1) and m is an integer. The larger the index value i is, the closer the historical year Y _{i is} to the evaluation date, and the historical year to which i=0 is the reference year Y ₀ .

In one embodiment, the cash dividend allotment rate each year history of CDR _i Y _i can be a company's dividend policy each year history of the publication of the Y _i per share cash dividend CDPS _i addition to a history of previous year Y _i-1 EPS _i-1 per share, that is, CDR _i = CDPS _i / EPS _i-1 .

In another embodiment, the cash dividend allotment rate each year history of CDR _i Y _i can be a previous tax year history of the Y _i-1 Earning net profit for the historical annual cash dividend of Y _i in addition to the total amount of CD _{i i- 1} , that is, CDR _i = CD _i /Earning _i-1 .

The average CDR _average of the CDR _i of the cash dividend allotment rate for the historical year can be generated in two ways, as follows:

[Math 5]

The cash dividend allotment rate CDR _{i for} each historical year Y _i may be zero, so the historical cash dividend allotment rate may be zero, or the expected cash dividend per share may be zero.

The average CDR _average of the CDR _i of the cash dividend allotment rate for the historical year can be generated using a menu method or a filling method. The menu method may include a method of selecting a value such as a pull-down type, a scroll type, or a button type, but is not limited thereto. The user can use the menu to select the set conditions used to estimate the average CDR _average of the cash dividend payout ratio CDR _{i for} the plural historical year, such as the three-year average, that is, m=3, the cash dividend for the three historical years. The CDR _average of the CDR _i of the allotment rate.

As mentioned earlier, the base year Y ₀ can be composed of four quarters, which can be four consecutive quarters of financial accounting information available before the assessment date. In one embodiment, a publicly traded company may publish financial statements for each quarter, based on the quarterly financial statements, which may be closest to the evaluation date and the quarter of the published financial statements, plus the previously disclosed financial statements. The three quarters constitute the first historical year, that is, the base year Y ₀ , and the quarters of the four previously disclosed financial statements continue to constitute the second historical year Y _-1 , and the remaining four in the historical year. The quarters are similar, and the quarters do not overlap in different historical years; if the financial statements for the new quarter are announced later, the definition basis of the historical year is changed to the quarter of the latest published financial statements.

Each year history of the value factor can be generated by its financial and accounting information contained in the four quarters to the base year earnings EPS ₀ Y ₀ per share, for example, define the base year Y ₀ from the four quarters Q01, Q02, Q03 and Q04 The composition is Q04 which is the quarter closest to the evaluation date, Q03 followed by Q02, and the quarter farthest from the evaluation date is Q01. If the financial statements published in these four quarters are EPS _Q01 , EPS respectively _{For Q02} , EPS _Q03 and EPS _Q04 , the EPS of the base year Y ₀ is EPS ₀ = EPS _Q01 + EPS _Q02 + EPS _Q03 + EPS _Q04 . If the financial statements of the new quarter Q05 are announced before another evaluation date, the base year Y ₀ will be composed of Q02, Q03, Q04, Q05, so that the earnings per share of the base year Y ₀ can be updated to EPS ₀ = EPS _Q02 +EPS _Q03 +EPS _Q04 +EPS _Q05 .

In another embodiment, the base year may be the company's fiscal year from which the annual financial accounting information can be obtained from the evaluation date, and the annual earnings per share, annual return on equity, earnings per share, and cash dividend per share may be directly obtained from the annual report. Related securities information to simplify the application of the present invention.

Then, step S14 is performed to evaluate the future operational performance of the securities issuing company, and the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities in the plural forecast year after the base year is generated according to the value factor of the pre-selected securities, and the evaluation factor may include the expected earnings per share EPS _j , expected per The cash dividend payout CDPS _j and the expected shareholder equity BVPS _j ; wherein the index value j is an integer value from 1 to n and n is a positive integer, and the smaller the index value j is, the closer the estimated year is to the evaluation date.

In one embodiment, the evaluation factor generation mode comprising: a first estimate of the base year after year Y ₀ Y ₁ of the expected earnings per share for shareholders EPS ₁ Y ₀ the base year of historical interest multiplied by the equity BVPS ₀ return ROEhistory; first estimated annual basis by the Department of Y ₁ Y ₀ next year starting with the first year does not overlap the base year Y _0; Y ₁ of the first annual estimate of expected cash dividend per share basis CDPS ₁ Annual Y ₀ earnings per share EPS ₀ multiplied by historical cash dividend allotment rate CDRhistory; first estimated annual Y ₁ expected per share shareholder equity BVPS ₁ is the base year Y ₀ shareholder equity BVPS ₀ plus first Estimated annual Y ₁ earnings per share EPS ₁ minus the first expected annual Y ₁ expected per share cash dividend CDPS ₁ ; second annual estimated Y ₂ after the base year Y ₀ expected earnings per share EPS ₂ is the expected first-year Y ₁ annual shareholder equity BVPS ₁ multiplied by the historical shareholder return rate ROEhistory; the second estimated year Y ₂ is from the base year Y ₀ from the beginning to the first estimate year Y ₁ overlaps the second year; a second estimate of the current year is expected to share Y ₂ Dividend CDPS ₂ Y ₁ as the first estimate of the expected annual earnings per share EPS ₁ multiplied by the historical cash dividend allotment rate CDRhistory; and a second estimated annual expected Y ₂ shareholders' equity per share BVPS ₂ for the first annual forecast Y ₁ Expected Shareholders' Equity BVPS ₁ plus the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year Y ₂ EPS ₂ minus the expected second-year Y ₂ of the expected cash dividend per share CDPS ₂ . The evaluation factors for the remaining estimated years are derived as such.

In another embodiment, the expected per share cash dividend CDPS ₁ for the first estimated year Y ₁ may be the historical year Y ₀ earnings per share EPS ₀ multiplied by the historical cash dividend allotment rate CDRhistory, ie CDPS ₁ = EPS ₀ × CDRhistory; since CDPS ₁ cannot be negative, if EPS ₀ is negative, CDPS ₁ = max[0, (EPS ₀ x CDRhistory)]. The first year is expected to forecast Y ₁ shareholders' equity per share BVPS ₁ per share to shareholders as described above can be the base year Y ₀ BVPS ₀ plus interest in the first year estimate of earnings per share is expected Y ₁ EPS ₁ minus The first expected annual Y ₁ expected cash dividend per share CDPS ₁ , which is BVPS ₁ = BVPS ₀ + EPS _{1 -} CDPS ₁ ; the first estimated annual Y ₁ return on equity ROE ₁ can take advantage of the concept of averaging Y ₁ to the first estimate of the expected annual earnings per share EPS _1, the first estimate of the expected annual Y ₁ shareholders 'equity per share BVPS _1, per share and shareholders' equity base year of BVPS ₀ Y ₀ be expressed as follows:

In order to simplify the implementation of the present invention, the ROE _{1 of the} first estimated annual Y ₁ is equal to the historical return on equity ROEhistory, through the following mathematical formula,

[Math 12]

Similarly, the expected EPS of the second estimated annual Y ₂ EPS ₂ , the expected cash dividend per share CDPS ₂ and the expected shareholder equity BVPS ₂ are as follows: [Formula 14] CDPS ₂ =max( 0, EPS ₁ × CDRhistory )

[Math 16] BVPS ₂ = BVPS ₁ + EPS ₂ - CDPS ₂

In this way, it can generate expected earnings per share for other estimated years, expected cash dividend per share and expected shareholder equity per share.

In another embodiment, if the securities issue company has announced the estimated annual Y ₁ cash dividend per share before the assessment date, the published cash dividend per share is used as the expected annual cash dividend per share of Y ₁ . CDPS ₁ , the first expected annual cash dividend allotment rate CDR ₁ = CDPS ₁ / EPS ₀ ; the historical cash dividend allotment rate can be replaced by the average of the m-year dividend allotment rate including the known CDR1. The example formula is as follows: [Math 17] CDR _average = (CDR ₁ + CDR ₀ + CDR _-1 +.... + CDR _(-m+2) /m

Finally, step S15 is executed to generate the expected stock price, and the expected earnings per share EPS _n of the last year of the complex forecast year may be generated according to the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities, and the expected P/E ratio is PERestimate to generate the last one of the complex forecast years. expected year stock Y _n P _n, which may be expected earnings ratio PERestimate history PERhistory generated earnings ratio.

In one embodiment, the expected PE ratio may be equal to the historical PE ratio PERhistory.

In another embodiment, for a conservative estimate, the expected PE ratio may be the minimum of the P/E ratio for the historical year and the P/E ratio for the base year.

In yet another embodiment, the expected cost-benefit ratio can be a given value, such as: 10.0 or 12.0.

Estimated annual complex in the last year of the expected share price Y _n P _n can be a complex year in the final year of the Y _n multiplied by the expected earnings per share EPS _n estimated earnings ratio PERestimate, investors can expect the share price by P _n Assess whether you want to hold pre-selected securities or hold pre-selected securities.

It is expected that the PE ratio can be generated using a menu method or a filling method, that is, a menu method or a filling method similar to the above-mentioned historical return on equity. Menu method can include pulldown The method of selecting a value, such as a scroll wheel or a button type, but is not limited thereto. Users can use the drop-down menu to select the method used to evaluate the expected PE ratio, such as the five-year median, which is the median P/E ratio for five historical years at m=5.

At step 516, the invention may also include setting or selecting a required rate of return RATE _(x%) , based on the required rate of return RATE (x%), the number of years of the complex year of the forecast, and the expected cash dividend per share of the pre-selected securities CDPS _j and a plurality of estimated annual Y _n of the last year is expected shares P _n, securities reasonably preselected value P _ro; return claim rATE _(x%) can be greater than a predetermined value of zero.

The reasonable value P _ro can be obtained by the compound interest discounted value of the final value of the cash value. In an embodiment, if the evaluation date is more than half a year from the most recent cash dividend distribution date, the exemplary formula of the reasonable value P _ro is as follows :

In another embodiment, if the evaluation date is less than half a year from the date of the most recent cash dividend distribution, the exemplary formula of the reasonable value P _ro is as follows

The required rate of return RATE _(x%) can be selected or set by using a menu method or a filling method, that is, a menu method or a filling method similar to the above-mentioned historical return on equity. The menu method may include a method of selecting a value such as a pull-down type, a scroll type, or a button type, but is not limited thereto. The user can use the drop-down menu to select the required rate of return RATE _(x%) , for example 15%.

In addition, the complex securities information may include market price P _0, P ₀ may be the market price for the securities instant price, closing price, or the previous day's closing price on the valuation date of the session, or the average number of trading days before Closing price.

In one embodiment, the value ratio of the securities may be defined as 1- (market price) / (reasonable value) to measure whether the security has a sufficient margin of safety or a degree of premium.

Can cash dividend per share CDPS _j, plural estimated based on the market price of securities preselected P _0, the year is expected to last a year Y _n of the expected price P _n, and a plurality of the estimated number of years n the year, it is expected to produce the preselected securities Rate of return RATE.

A specific embodiment of estimating the expected rate of return RATE can be as follows:

The user can judge the upside or downside of the stock price of the pre-selected securities by comparing the difference or the value ratio of the market price P ₀ to the reasonable value P _ro .

The user can also use the ratio of the reasonable value P _ro to evaluate the purchase reference price and the sell reference price of the securities; in one embodiment, the purchase reference price can be 70% of the reasonable value P _ro , and the selling reference price can be A reasonable value of 120% of _Pro .

The user can also use the expected rate of return RATE to assess whether the pre-selected securities have a satisfactory investment value or to compare the relative value of the different securities.

The user can set the evaluation factor by means of historical stock return, expected price-to-earnings ratio, and the required return or fill-in method, which can simplify the securities analysis operation and increase the reasonable value of the estimated securities based on the quantitative data. The quality of decision making.

In an embodiment, the historical shareholders' equity return rate, the expected price-earning ratio, and the required rate of return are determined by a menu or a value-added method, and may be applied to all the plurality of securities in the securities database. For example, all securities use the average of the five-year return on equity, the expected price-to-earnings ratio is the median three-year P/E ratio, and the required rate of return is 15%.

In another embodiment, different historical stock returns, expected price-to-earnings ratios, and required returns may be set for different pre-selected securities by way of menu or fill-in. For example, the pre-selected securities A set the historical shareholder equity return rate as the five-year average, and the pre-selected securities B set the historical shareholder equity return rate as the three-year average to match the different industrial characteristics or economic cycle of the securities issue company, and increase the present invention. The flexibility and practicality of the evaluation method and investment decision structure.

The aforementioned evaluation method for the value of the securities investment can be realized by a computer program product of the internal storage securities information processing program, such as a computer, a network server (such as a cloud device), or a mobile device (for example, a smart type). An electronic device or a storage medium, etc., through which the investor executes the securities information processing program stored therein, or through any one of the readable devices The electronic device of the securities information processing program stored in the storage medium implements the various methods of the present invention described above after executing the program. The various methods of the invention described above can also be implemented in a particular data processing system.

Please refer to FIG. 2, which is a system architecture diagram for describing a computer program product for evaluating the value of securities investment in the present invention. In accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, a computer system as shown in FIG. 2 may be used in an electronic computing device such as, but not limited to, a user terminal device and/or a server device or the like. The computer program product of the present invention can be applied to any suitable computer system to execute any suitable operating system. The computer system illustrated in FIG. 2 may be, but not limited to, a Microsoft Windows for a personal computer, an Apple iOS system for a tablet, or a smart phone. Google Android system, etc.

The computer system may include a processor 21 that may be coupled to the information bus 27. The computer system may also include memory 23. The memory 23 may include a storage unit 231 of a non-volatile storage medium such as a hard disk drive or a NAND flash memory, and may be used to store an application written according to the method of the present invention; the memory 23 is also The storage system may include a storage device 232, such as but not limited to a CD player, a USB slot, a memory card jack, etc. The computer system may also include a removable storage unit 233, which may also be referred to as a program storage device or a computer program. Products, such as optical discs, flash drives, memory cards, etc.; the removable storage unit 233 can read or write data to the storage interface 232; the processor 21 may be a digital processing core for reading and executing memory The program contained in 23, in addition, if the program implementing the method of the present invention is updated, the updated program can be stored in the memory 23 via the processor 21.

The computer system may include input devices such as an input interface 25 and an input component 251 such as, but not limited to, a touch panel, a mouse, a keyboard, or other input peripheral products. The loss Incoming component 251 allows the user to enter the name of the security to select the pre-selected security, or allows the user to set the evaluation factor by means of a menu or a value, such as a rate of return, a historical return on equity, or an expected price-earnings ratio, but not Limited to this.

The computer system can include an output device, such as an output interface 24 (such as a display interface) and a display 241. In an embodiment, the display 241 can let the user know the reasonable value, the market price, the required rate of return, etc., in a text or graphic manner. But it is not limited to this.

The computer system can include a communication interface 26, such as but not limited to a network interface card and a data machine; the computer can connect the communication network 29 and the application server 28 to transfer software and data via the communication interface 26, and the communication network 29 can be Internet or proprietary network. In one embodiment, after the computer is loaded into the computer program product of the securities information processing program, the securities database (not shown) in the application server 28 can be connected through the communication interface 26 to perform the securities of the present invention. Investment evaluation method. The securities database may also be downloaded to the memory 23 through the communication interface 26, or directly stored in the storage unit 231 of the memory 23 via manual operation or automatic import.

The user can use the input component 251 to send the parameters of the control program execution to the processor 21 via the input interface 24, and thereby boot the execution of the program. The parameters of the program execution may include, for example, a method of generating a historical return on equity, a method of generating a historical cash dividend allotment rate, a method of generating an expected price-earning ratio, a required return rate filled or selected, and a securities of a pre-selected securities Name, but not limited to this. The result of executing the program by the processor 21 can be used to transfer text or graphics to the display 241 via the output interface 24 for the user to reference the application. The result of executing the program may include, but is not limited to, the reasonable value of the pre-selected securities.

In one embodiment, the present invention can be provided as a computer program product that can be downloaded And stored in the computer; the user can send the program from the application distribution platform to the memory 23 of the client computer through the communication interface 26 of the computer (for example, a data machine or a wireless network), and then executable on the computer The internal storage securities information processing program of the computer program product. The application distribution platform is, for example but not limited to, the Google Play store of the Android operating system or the App Store platform of the Apple iOS operating system.

The method of the present invention can be implemented using a securities information system. Please refer to FIG. 3, which is a system block diagram for describing the application of the present invention to a securities investment evaluation method. As shown in FIG. 3, the securities information system 30 may include a securities information processing subsystem 31 and a securities database 32; the securities information of the plurality of securities may be obtained from the securities data source 39 by manual or automatic processing and stored in the securities database 32. Securities information may include financial accounting information and historical P/E ratios. The securities information processing subsystem 31 is coupled to the securities database 32; the securities information processing subsystem 31 can accept user selections and settings input from a user operating from a client electronic device (not shown); wherein the securities database 32 and the securities information processing subsystem 31 need not be located at the same physical location.

The securities information processing subsystem 31 may include a securities service sub-system 35 that provides the outside world to select at least one pre-selected security on the evaluation date. The securities information processing subsystem may include a data retrieval and storage sub-system 33 that compares the securities names of the pre-selected securities provided by the securities service sub-system 35 to the securities database 32 to obtain the relevant securities information of the pre-selected securities. The securities information processing subsystem 31 may include a securities evaluation sub-system 36, which may be coupled to the data retrieval and storage subsystem 33, and may receive relevant securities information of the pre-selected securities; the securities evaluation sub-system 36 may include a value factor module 361, The value of the number of years in the plural historical year of the pre-selected securities may be built in order to generate a value factor for the pre-selected securities, including the historical return on equity, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share in the base year, and Earnings per share for the base year; the base year can be financial accounting information obtained before the assessment date It consists of four consecutive quarters; the securities evaluation sub-system 36 may include an evaluation factor module 363 that can be built with the number of years of the complex estimated annual estimate of the required assessment, and then based on the value provided by the value factor module 361 The factor generates an evaluation factor for the multiple estimated year after the base year. The evaluation factor includes the expected earnings per share, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder equity per share. The securities evaluation sub-system 36 may include a securities information module 365, which may be based on The evaluation factor and expected price-to-earnings ratio provided by the evaluation factor module 363 yields the expected price for the last year of the complex estimation year, wherein the expected price-to-earnings ratio can be calculated from the historical P/E ratio provided by the data retrieval and storage subsystem 33. .

The securities information module 365 may also have a predetermined value of the required rate of return. The securities information module 365 may calculate the expected cash dividend per share and the plural amount provided by the evaluation factor module 363 based on the expected price in the last year of the estimated year. Estimate the number of years in the year and the rate of return required to generate a reasonable value for the pre-selected securities.

The securities information of the securities database 32 may also include the market price of the securities. The securities information module 365 may be based on the expected price of the pre-selected securities in the last year of the complex forecast year, the data retrieval and storage subsystem 33 from the securities database 32. The market price of the pre-selected securities obtained by the search and the estimated annual cash dividends provided by the evaluation factor module 363 and the number of years of the complex forecast year to generate the expected rate of return for the pre-selected securities.

The securities information module 365 can also generate a pre-selected security market value based on the fair value of the pre-selected securities and the market price of the pre-selected securities retrieved from the securities database 32 by the data retrieval and storage subsystem 33.

Please refer to FIG. 4, which is another system block diagram for describing the application of the present invention to the securities investment evaluation method. The securities information processing subsystem 31 may include a securities service sub-system 35, a securities service The sub-system 35 can include a condition setting module 352, an operation interface module 356, and a display interface module 358. The user can input the securities name of the selected pre-selected securities to the operation interface module by using an input component such as a touch panel or a keyboard. 356, the evaluation factor may also be set by using the menu module 356 by using the menu method or the filling method, such as the required rate of return, the historical return on equity, or the expected price-earnings ratio; the display interface module 358 may be in the form of text or The graphical manner displays a range of values or options for each evaluation factor to be selected; the condition setting module 352 can be coupled to the securities evaluation sub-system 33, which allows the user to change the setting conditions of the evaluation factor, such as but not limited to: setting the required rate of return The value, the setting condition of the historical return on equity, the setting condition of the cash dividend distribution rate, or the setting condition of the expected price-earning ratio, or the setting condition forming option of the evaluation factor is presented on the display screen via the display interface module 358. For the user to set or select the setting conditions of each evaluation factor; in addition, the calendar of different pre-selected securities The historical shareholder return rate or expected price-earnings ratio can be set differently from the total number of securities; in an embodiment, the condition setting module 352 can set the evaluation factor setting conditions including but not limited to: the required rate of return is 15 %, historical return on equity is the average of the five-year return on equity before the assessment date, historical cash dividend distribution is the average of the five-year cash dividend allotment rate before the assessment date, and the expected P/E ratio is the assessment date. The condition setting module 352 can also provide a condition setting menu of the evaluation factor and display the display device connected to the display interface module 358 for facilitating the user to use the input device through the operation interface module. 356 Select the condition setting option of the evaluation factor.

The securities information processing subsystem may include a data retrieval and storage sub-system 33 and a securities evaluation sub-system 36. The securities service sub-system 35 may transmit the securities name of the pre-selected securities to the data retrieval and storage subsystem 33, data retrieval and After the storage sub-system 33 links the securities database 32 to verify the name of the security, the financial accounting information and historical cost-benefit ratio of the pre-selected securities can be collected and calculated and transmitted to the securities evaluation sub-system 36.

The securities evaluation sub-system 36 may include a value factor module 361 and an evaluation factor module 363; the value factor module 361 is combined with the condition setting module 352 to set the condition of the historical shareholder return rate and the historical cash dividend allotment rate (the condition) The setting may be a system preset value or a user-defined value), and the relevant financial accounting data of the pre-selected securities is calculated to generate a value factor and provided to the evaluation factor module 363, which may include a historical return on equity, historical cash dividends The allotment rate, the earnings per share of the base year, and the net value per share of the base year; the evaluation factor module 363 can be substituted into the number of years after the base year set by the condition setting module 352, and the value factor module The value factor of 361 is used to generate an evaluation factor for the pre-selected securities in the complex forecast year, the evaluation factor including the expected earnings per share, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder equity per share; the securities evaluation sub-system 36 may include a securities information model. Group 365, in conjunction with the evaluation factor provided by the evaluation factor module 363 and the conditional setting module 352, the expected price-to-earnings ratio Conditions set computing complex after the base year estimates for the year expected earnings per share last year and is expected to generate earnings ratio of the preselected securities expected price.

In addition, the securities evaluation sub-system 36 may also include a securities information module 365 to generate a reasonable value or an expected rate of return for the pre-selected securities; the securities information module 365 may utilize the generated pre-selected securities at the expected price for the final year of the estimated year. The required return rate set by the condition setting module 355 is combined with the expected cash dividend per share of the pre-selected securities generated by the evaluation factor module 363 and the number of years of the complex estimated year to generate a reasonable value of the pre-selected securities. The securities value module 365 can also utilize the first value of the reasonable value set by the pre-selected securities and the reasonable value set by the condition setting module 355 to generate a recommended value for the purchase reference price, the first ratio being less than one; the securities value model The group 365 can also utilize the second value of the reasonable value set by the pre-selected security and the condition setting module 355 to generate a suggested value for the selling reference price, the second ratio being greater than or equal to one.

The securities information of the securities database 32 may also include the market price of the plurality of securities; the data retrieval and storage sub-system 43 may also include the pre-selected securities selected by the verification information service subsystem 35 for retrieving the securities data from the securities database 32. The market price of the pre-selected securities; the securities information module 365 can utilize the market price of the pre-selected securities of the temporary data retrieval and storage subsystem 33, and the expected cash dividends of the pre-selected securities transmitted by the evaluation factor module 363, The expected stock price of the last year of the year is estimated and the number of years in the complex forecast year to generate the expected rate of return for the pre-selected securities.

In one embodiment, the securities database 32 and the securities information processing subsystem 31 of the securities information system 30 of the present invention may be located in a single computer device.

In another embodiment, the securities database 32 can be stored in a remote application server and connected to the client's securities information processing subsystem 31 via the Internet or a proprietary network for data transmission. The security information processing subsystem 31 is built into the client electronic device in the form of software. The electronic device of the user terminal, such as but not limited to: a personal computer, a tablet PC, or a smart phone, in particular, a remote server that can communicate with the memory and security database 32 via wireless communication or the Internet. Data exchange. The securities information processing subsystem 31 can accept user selections and settings from user input from the user premises electronic device. The securities information processing subsystem 31 may issue a request for the securities inquiry to the securities database 32 via the remote application server according to the pre-selected securities selected by the user, and the securities database 32 returns the relevant securities information.

Please refer to FIG. 5 to FIG. 9 , which are schematic diagrams of a preferred embodiment of a securities information system 30 for use in a touch-sensitive mobile computing device; wherein FIG. 5 illustrates the securities information of the present invention. A schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of the initial screen of the screen, and FIG. 6 illustrates the selection of a pre-selection A schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of a securities information screen displayed after the selection of securities (Securities A), and FIG. 7 is a preferred embodiment of the securities data, value factors, and evaluation data of the pre-selected securities. FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of a securities information screen related to condition setting, and FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of a preferred embodiment of a securities information screen for changing a set condition of a pre-selected security (securities A).

As shown in FIG. 5, the three main securities information screens of the securities information system 30 of the present invention include a stock picking summary page 50, a condition setting page 51, and a stock information page 52. Each of the above three securities information pages has a display screen 56 coupled to the display interface module 358 for allowing the user to view the relevant securities information of the securities information processing subsystem 31; and on the display screen 56 of the three securities information pages. The touch panel 57 is coupled to the operation interface module 356 to provide necessary setting or selection functions for the user. On the stock selection summary page 50, the user touches the click condition setting button 501 through the touch panel 57 to enter the condition setting page 51, and the same click on the individual information button 502 to enter the stock information page 52; in the condition setting 51 The page touch can be returned to the stock selection summary page 50 by clicking the stock selection summary button 512. Similarly, the touch click stock selection summary button 522 on the individual stock information page 52 can also return to the stock selection summary page 50. In addition, in the stock selection summary page 50, the search field 503 allows the user to input a stock code or name, input the pre-selected securities, and then touch the search button 504 to select the pre-selected securities, that is, the connection operation interface module 356, and access the data. The retrieval and storage subsystem 33 requests the securities data of the pre-selected securities from the securities database 32 located at the remote server (not shown), and the securities information is transmitted to the securities evaluation sub-system 36 to generate a value factor, evaluation. Factors, related securities information, and presented on the individual stock information page 52 for the user's reference. The required rate of return setting slider 58 allows the user to set the required rate of return for individual securities. The expected price-to-earnings setting menu button 59 sets the expected price-to-earnings ratio for individual securities. The condition setting page 51 can display fields of the system's common preset conditions for all securities, including but not limited to: history The setting condition field 514 of the return on equity, the setting condition field 515 of the historical cash dividend distribution rate, the setting condition field 516 of the expected price-earning ratio, the setting value field 517 of the required return rate, and the purchase reference price The condition field 518 and the setting condition field 519 of the selling reference price are set. In this embodiment, the preset return rate of the system is set to 15%, and the expected P/E ratio of the system is set to a five-year average; on the initial screen of the stock selection summary page 50, the required return rate is displayed. The 15% and expected P/E ratios are shown as a five-year average.

As shown in FIG. 6, if the user wants to evaluate the investment value of the securities A on the evaluation date on March 16, 2013, the name of the securities of the securities A can be entered in the search field 503, and then the touch search button 504 is touched. As a pre-selected security, the securities A notify the data retrieval and storage sub-system 33 through the operation interface module 356 to link the securities database 32 of the remote application server and download the securities data of the securities A, and then transmit to the securities evaluation sub-system 36. The securities information module 365 then displays the relevant securities information through the display interface module 358 on the display screen 56 of the stock selection summary page 50, including but not limited to: market price, expected price, reasonable value, value ratio, and purchase reference price. , sell reference price, expected rate of return, expected price-earnings ratio. The user can roughly judge the investment value of the securities A by using the above securities information: in this embodiment, the current market price of the securities A (the closing price of the previous trading day of the evaluation date) is as high as 580 yuan, which is very close to the evaluation of the present invention. The estimated 2017 expected price of 600 yuan, even if it can maintain the outstanding performance of the average annual return on equity of 36% in the past five years, and take into account the cash dividends from 2013 to 2017, the expected rate of return is only 4.3. %; If you want to achieve the system default value of 15% of the required rate of return, the current fair value of the securities A is only 368 yuan, refer to the condition setting page 51, the purchase reference price is set to a reasonable value of 80% equal to 294 yuan, sell reference The price is set at 120% of the reasonable value equal to 441 yuan. Therefore, if the user holds the securities in his hand, he should consider the rallies or the appropriate amount of code reduction. The user can touch the individual stock information button 502 to enter the stock information page 52. A step-by-step understanding of the evaluation process of the investment value of Securities A can be seen as more aware of its ability to enhance its fundamental analysis and independent judgment.

As shown in FIG. 7, the individual stock information page 52 displays the securities information after the user selects the securities A as the pre-selected securities. Because the issuing company of Securities A has announced the financial and annual financial statements for the fourth quarter of 2012 before March 16, 2013, the consecutive four seasons of financial accounting information that can be obtained before the evaluation date can be the first quarter to the fourth of 2012. The quarter, the base year 703 is 2012, and the plural historical year 701 before the evaluation date can be from 2008 to 2012. The securities information of Securities A can include but is not limited to: the return on equity of 2008 to 2012 (ie, this ROE of the chart, shareholder's equity per share (ie the net value per share of this chart), earnings per share, cash dividend per share (ie cash dividend of this chart), and cash dividend allotment rate (ie dividend distribution of this figure) The value factor 72 of the securities A includes the historical return on equity 721, the historical cash dividend allotment rate 723, the shareholder equity 725 per share in the base year, and the earnings per share 727 in the base year. The value factor 72 can be generated. As shown below: historical return on equity 721 = (30.8% + 31.0% + 38.0% + 40.4% + 39.8%) / 5 = 36.0%

Historical cash dividend distribution ratio 723 = (70.9% + 71.4% + 84.7% + 83.8% + 73.1%) / 5 = 76.8%

Base year earnings per share 727=23.9

Shareholders' equity per share for the base year 725=64.3

In this embodiment, the multiple estimated year 705 after the base year may be from 2013 to 2017, and the valuation factor 73 of the securities A includes the expected earnings per share 732, the expected cash dividend per share 734, and the expected shareholder equity 736; The return on equity of the present embodiment can be divided by the earnings per share divided by the average shareholder's equity per share for the year. The evaluation factor of the securities A is estimated by the above mathematical formula 14 to the mathematical formula 16 as follows: 2013 Expected cash dividend per share for the year = 23.9 x 76.8% = 18.4

Expected earnings per share for 2013 = (64.3-18.4/2) x (36% / (1 - (36% / 2))) = 24.2

Expected shareholder equity per share in 2013 = 64.3 + 24.2-18.4 = 70.1

Expected earnings per share in 2014 = 24.2 x 76.8% = 18.6

Expected earnings per share for 2014 = (70.1-18.6/2) x (36% / (1 - (36% / 2))) = 26.7

Expected shareholder equity per share in 2014 = 70.1 + 26.7-18.6 = 78.1

(So on and so forth)

Expected cash dividend per share for 2017 = 33.3 x 76.8% = 25.7

Expected earnings per share for 2017 = (97.7-25.7/2) x (36% / (1 - (36% / 2))) = 37.3

Expected shareholder equity per share for 2017 = 97.7 + 37.3 - 25.7 = 109.3

In this embodiment, the P/E ratio (not shown) of the multiple historical years of the securities A is in order: 2008 P/E ratio = 9.47

2009 P/E ratio = 16.42

2010 P/E ratio = 23.12

2011 P/E ratio = 15.74

2012 P/E ratio = 15.70

According to the expected price-to-earnings ratio of the condition setting page 51 is set to the average value of the five-year P/E ratio, the expected P/E ratio of the securities A = (9.47+16.42+23.12+15.74+15.70)/5=16.09

The expected price of Securities A in 2017 = 37.3 x 16.09 = 600.2

The current reasonable value of Securities A is estimated as follows when the required rate of return is 15%: the discounted value of the expected price = 600.2 / (1 + 15%) ⁵ = 298.4

The discounted value of expected cash dividends = 14.4/(1+15%)+18.6/(1+15%) ² +20.5/(1+15%) ³ +22.9/(1+15%) ⁴ +25.7/( 1+15%) ⁵ =69.4

The reasonable value of securities A = 298.4 + 69.4 = 367.8

In this embodiment, the value ratio can be defined as 1-(market price) / (reasonable value) to measure whether the security has a sufficient margin of safety or a degree of premium.

The value ratio of securities A = 1 - (580 / 367.8) = -57.7%

In the case where the purchase reference price setting condition and the selling reference price setting condition are respectively 80% of the reasonable value and 120% of the reasonable value: the purchase reference price of the securities A = 367.8 x 80% = 294.2

The reference price for the sale of securities A = 367.8 x 120% = 441.1

In the present embodiment, the expected rate of return securities A (RATE _A) by the following equation (equation 20) Collocation obtained: 580.0 = 600.2 / (1 + RATE ^{_A) 5 + 18.4 / (1 +} RATE _A) + 18.6 / (1 + RATE ^{_A) 2 + 20.5 / (1 +} RATE ^{_A) 3 + 22.9 / (1 +} RATE ^{_A) 4 + 25.7 / (1 +} RATE _A) ⁵

Therefore, the expected rate of return of securities A = 4.27%

As shown in FIG. 8, the user can set the relevant evaluation parameters on the condition setting page 51. In this embodiment, the user can touch the condition setting field 514 of the historical stock return rate in the click condition setting page 51. You can enter the historical shareholder return on equity page 81. The multiple options provided by the condition setting module 352 are displayed in the menu mode. The user can select one of the options and return to the condition setting page 51. The setting condition of the condition setting field 514 is also updated to the selected option; the same user can go to the historical cash dividend allotment rate page 82, the expected price-earnings ratio page 83, the required rate of return page 84, and the purchase. The reference price page 85, and the sell reference price page 86, to select the individual evaluation parameters to establish their own investment decision structure. user When the stock selection summary button 512 is clicked again to return to the stock selection summary page 50, the securities information system will use the updated setting conditions to evaluate the selected pre-selected securities.

As shown in FIG. 6 and FIG. 9, on the stock selection summary page 50, a contextual simulation of different set conditions for pre-selected securities may be performed, such as, but not limited to, a required rate of return and an expected price to benefit ratio. In this embodiment, after selecting the securities A on the stock selection summary page 50 and obtaining the corresponding securities information, the user can move the required return rate setting knob 581 of the required return rate setting slider 58 to select different predetermined values. Requires the rate of return; can also touch one of the expected P/E ratio setting button 59 setting buttons, including the most recent year P/E setting button 591, the two-year average P/E ratio setting button 592, and the three-year average benefit. The setting button 593, the four-year average P/E ratio setting button 594, and the five-year average P/E ratio setting button 595 are used to select the different predetermined conditions of the expected P/E ratio, and obtain the corresponding pre-value book of the securities A. Benefit ratio. Referring to FIG. 9, when the user moves the required rate of return setting button 581 of the required rate of return setting slider 58 to the left to a value of 10% of the required rate of return display, and the touch clicks the expected price-earning ratio setting menu button 59. After the three-year average P/E ratio button 593, the securities information module 365 receives the change of the setting conditions of the securities service sub-system 35, and displays the updated securities information in the stock selection summary page 50: including the expected price from 600. Yuan became 678 yuan, the reasonable value changed from 368 yuan to 500 yuan, the value ratio changed from -58% to -16%, and the expected rate of return rose from 4.3% to 6.6%. The user can use this situation simulation analysis to know that even The expected price-to-earnings ratio is changed from a five-year average of 16.1 to a three-year average of 18.2, and the expected rate of return for securities A is still less than 7%; it can also be resolved from another perspective: even if the required rate of return falls to 10%, the value ratio remains Negative value, in other words, the market price of 580 yuan is still 16% higher than the new reasonable value of 500 yuan.

With the securities evaluation method, computer program product, and securities information system of the present invention, users can construct their own sound investment structure, focus on fundamentals to select securities and hold them for a long time.

In summary, the present invention utilizes the securities data including the transaction surface and the fundamental surface to quantify the value factors and evaluation factors used to judge the financial quality of the company and the quality of the securities investment, and further generate the expected return rate of the securities, so that the investor can It is an invention with both objectivity and integrity to evaluate the relative value of the investment value of securities and securities with specific data.

The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the principles and effects of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention. Modifications and variations of the above-described embodiments can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Therefore, the scope of the claims of the present invention should be as described in the following claims.

S11-S16. . . step

Claims (27)

An evaluation method for the value of a securities investment, comprising the steps of: establishing a securities database containing a plurality of securities, the securities database storing securities information of the plurality of securities, the securities materials including financial accounting materials and historical price-earnings ratio; At least one pre-selected security is selected in the securities database, and the pre-selected securities are included in the securities database; the value factor of the pre-selected securities is generated according to the financial accounting information of the pre-selected securities, and the value factor includes historical stock returns, historical cash dividends The allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters, which are consecutive for the financial accounting data before the evaluation date. Four quarters; an evaluation factor for the pre-selected securities for the multiple estimated years after the base year based on the value factor of the pre-selected securities, the estimated factors including the expected earnings per share, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder equity per share; And generating an expected earnings per share and expected price-earnings ratio based on the pre-selected securities to generate the plural Annual estimates of the expected price in the last year; the expected price-earnings ratio produced by the Department of the history of PE ratio. The method of claim of claim 1, wherein the financial accounting information includes a shareholder's equity, earnings per share and cash dividend per share for the plural historical year prior to the evaluation date. The method of evaluation as described in claim 1 wherein the expected price-to-earnings ratio is the average or median of the P/E ratio for the multiple historical years prior to the assessment date, or the P/E ratio for the base year. The evaluation method of claim 1, wherein the foregoing evaluation factor is generated by: estimating an expected per-share cash dividend for the first estimated year after the base year by the earnings per share of the base year and the historical cash The dividend issuance rate is generated; the first estimated year is the first year in which the base year does not overlap with the base year; the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year is from the base year The shareholder's equity and the historical return on equity are generated; the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year, and the first The expected annual cash dividend per share for the estimated year; the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year and the historical cash dividend allotment rate Generated; the second estimated year is the second year in which the base year does not overlap with the first forecast year; the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year is determined by the first estimate Annual expected shareholder equity per share and the historical return on equity; The expected shareholder's equity per share for the second estimated year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year, the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year, and the expected cash per share for the second estimated year. Dividends are generated. The method of evaluating the scope of claim 1 includes determining or selecting a required rate of return, based on the required rate of return, the number of years in the year of the complex estimate, and the expected cash dividend per share of the preselected securities and the plural The expected price for the last year of the year is estimated to produce a reasonable value for the pre-selected security; the required rate of return is a predetermined value greater than zero. The evaluation method of claim 5, wherein the securities information includes a market price, and a value ratio is generated according to a market price of the pre-selected securities and a reasonable value. The method of claim 1, wherein the securities information includes a market price, based on a market price of the pre-selected securities, an expected cash dividend per share, an expected price of the last year of the complex forecast year, And the number of years in the complex forecast year, resulting in the expected rate of return on the pre-selected securities. For example, in the evaluation method described in claim 1, wherein the historical return on equity is the average or median of the return on shareholders' equity in the plural historical year before the evaluation date, or the shareholder's equity compensation in the base year. rate. For example, the evaluation method described in claim 8 of the patent scope, wherein the historical return on equity is generated by using a menu method or a filling method. For example, the evaluation method described in claim 3, wherein the expected P/E ratio is generated by using a menu method or a filling method. A computer program product for storing a securities information processing program for evaluating the value of a securities investment, loading the program via a computer and performing the following steps: linking a securities database containing a plurality of securities, the securities database storing the plurality of securities Securities information, the securities information includes financial accounting data and historical price-earnings ratio; at least one pre-selected securities are selected on the evaluation date, the pre-selected securities are included in the securities database; the top selection is generated based on the financial accounting data of the pre-selected securities The value factor of the securities, which includes the historical return on equity, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share in the base year and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters. The four quarters are the four consecutive quarters in which the financial accounting information can be obtained before the evaluation date; the evaluation factor of the pre-selected securities in the multiple estimated years after the base year is generated based on the value factor of the pre-selected securities, the evaluation factor includes Expected earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity per share; The pre-selected securities based on expected earnings and expected earnings ratio to produce the final year of the plurality of expected price forecast in the year; the expected price-earnings ratio produced by the Department of the history of PE ratio. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the financial accounting information includes a shareholder's equity, earnings per share and cash dividend per share for the plural historical year prior to the evaluation date. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the expected price-to-earnings ratio is the average or median of the P/E ratio for the historical year prior to the assessment date, or the P/E ratio for the base year. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the foregoing evaluation factor is generated by: the expected annual cash dividend per share for the first estimated year after the base year is the earnings per share of the base year and the history The cash dividend distribution rate is generated; the first estimated year is the first year in which the base year does not overlap with the base year; the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year is from the base year The shareholder's equity per share and the historical return on equity are generated; the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year, and Expected earnings per share for the first estimated year; the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year and the historical cash dividend allotment rate Generated; the second estimated year is the second year in which the base year does not overlap with the first forecast year; the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year is Estimated shareholders' equity per share for the year is expected with the historical return on equity generated; and The expected shareholder's equity per share for the second estimated year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year, the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year, and the expected cash per share for the second estimated year. Dividends are generated. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the execution of the program comprises: setting or selecting a required rate of return, according to the required rate of return, the number of years of the complex year, and the pre-selected securities The expected price per share of the cash dividend and the expected year of the last year of the complex estimate is the reasonable value of the pre-selected security; the required rate of return is a predetermined value greater than zero. The computer program product of claim 15, wherein the securities information includes a market price, and a value ratio is generated according to a market price of the pre-selected securities and a reasonable value. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the securities information includes a market price, based on the market price of the pre-selected securities, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected price of the last year of the complex year. And the number of years in the year of the complex estimate, resulting in the expected rate of return on the pre-selected securities. The computer program product as claimed in claim 11, wherein the historical return on equity is the average or median of the return on shareholders' equity in the plural historical year before the evaluation date, or the shareholders' equity of the base year Rate of return. For example, the computer program product described in claim 18, wherein the historical return on equity is generated by using a menu method or a method of filling. The computer program product of claim 13, wherein the expected price-earning ratio is generated by using a menu method or a filling method. A securities information system for quantifying the investment value of securities, including: The securities database is a stock information of a plurality of securities, the financial information including historical accounting information and historical price-earnings ratio; and a securities information processing subsystem linked to the securities database, which includes: a sub-system of securities services, For selecting at least one pre-selected security on the evaluation date; the data retrieval and storage sub-system is based on the pre-selected securities selected by the securities service sub-system for retrieving the securities information of the pre-selected securities from the securities database; And a sub-system of securities evaluation, which is linked to the sub-system of data retrieval and storage, comprising: a value factor module, which is based on the financial accounting information of the pre-selected securities provided by the sub-system of the data retrieval and storage, and generates the pre-selection The value factor of the securities, including the historical return on equity, the historical cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share in the base year and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters. The four quarters are four consecutive quarters of the financial accounting data obtained before the evaluation date; a group, based on the value factor provided by the value factor module, generating an evaluation factor for the pre-selected securities for the multiple estimated years after the base year, the evaluation factors including expected earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected earnings per share Shareholders' equity; and the securities information module, based on the expected earnings per share and expected price-earnings ratio provided by the factor module to generate the expected price for the last year of the complex year; the expected price-earnings ratio is The historical P/E ratio provided by the data retrieval and storage subsystem. For example, the securities information system described in claim 21, wherein the securities information of the securities database further includes a market price, and the securities information module is further based on the pre-selected securities in the last year of the plural forecast year. The expected price, the market price provided by the data retrieval and storage sub-system, and the expected cash dividend per share provided by the evaluation factor module and the number of years in the complex forecast year to generate the expected remuneration for the pre-selected securities rate. For example, the securities information system described in claim 21, wherein the securities service sub-system further comprises: a condition setting module, setting or selecting a required return rate, the required return rate being a predetermined value greater than zero; the security The information module is further based on the expected stock price of the pre-selected securities in the last year of the complex forecast year, the required rate of return provided by the condition setting module, the expected cash dividend per share provided by the evaluation factor module, and The plural estimates the number of years of the year to generate a reasonable value for the pre-selected securities. The securities information system of claim 23, wherein the securities service sub-system further comprises: a display interface module, wherein the plurality of values greater than zero provided by the module are displayed in a menu manner according to the condition; And an operation interface module for selecting one of the options of the menu to generate the required rate of return. The securities information system of claim 23, wherein the securities information of the securities database further includes a market price; the securities information module is further based on a reasonable price of the pre-selected securities The value is a value ratio to the market price of the pre-selected security provided by the data retrieval and storage subsystem. The securities information system of claim 23, wherein the securities service sub-system further comprises: a display interface module, wherein the first ratio of the reasonable value provided by the module is set according to the condition to be a menu mode Displaying that the first ratio is less than one; and the operating interface module, the purchase reference price of the pre-selected securities is selected by the securities information module according to the operation interface module, and one of the options of the menu and the reasonable value produce. The securities information system of claim 26, wherein the display interface module displays, according to the condition setting module, a plurality of the second ratio of the reasonable value displayed in a menu manner, the second ratio being greater than or And the selling reference price of the pre-selected securities is generated by the securities information module based on one of the options of the operating interface module selecting the menu and the reasonable value.