TW201403525A  An evaluation method for security values, a method for portfolio process to construct the portfolio and a computer program product thereof for storing security information processing program  Google Patents
An evaluation method for security values, a method for portfolio process to construct the portfolio and a computer program product thereof for storing security information processing program Download PDFInfo
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 TW201403525A TW201403525A TW101125327A TW101125327A TW201403525A TW 201403525 A TW201403525 A TW 201403525A TW 101125327 A TW101125327 A TW 101125327A TW 101125327 A TW101125327 A TW 101125327A TW 201403525 A TW201403525 A TW 201403525A
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Abstract
Description
The present invention relates to securities investment, in particular to the quantitative assessment of the value of securities investment, and more particularly to the construction and management of indices and portfolios.
There are two major development directions for securities investment. One is the “efficiency market hypothesis”, which assumes that the securities market is highly efficient. According to all available information, the market price of securities will equal its fair value, which is an important theory of modern financial investment. One of the foundations is also the core idea of the market capitalization weighted index. However, this theory often contradicts the real market situation, such as the financial tsunami in 2008; and if the efficiency market is established, it is impossible to buy high and low investment behavior.
Value investment is another development direction of securities investment. The basic strategy is to use the deviation of the price of securities from the value of the company to buy securities at a discount price lower than the intrinsic value of the securities. After the price of the securities rises, the value is equal to or higher than the value. The price is sold to get the return on investment.
The valuation of securities is the premise and core of value investment, and it is also an unsolved investment problem. After finding a company with longterm competitive advantage, investors must try to quantitatively evaluate the intrinsic value of the company and compare it with the market price of the securities issued by the company. Further, it is necessary to compare the relative value between the securities as the investment location. The tradeoff criteria for weight assignment.
The analysis of the intrinsic value of a company is very important. It provides an important basis for rational judgment in assessing the relative attractiveness of securities. It is a value based on facts (such as shareholders' equity, net profit, cash dividends, etc.) and is completely different from being susceptible to human manipulation. And market prices affected by psychological factors.
The most widely accepted valuation framework in theory is the discounted cash flow model proposed by John Burr Williams in 1942: the value of any stock, bond or other type of security depends solely on the company that issued the securities. The discounted cash flow expected to be generated during the lifetime. But in practice, it is difficult to assess the company’s net cash flow for decades, such as the economist Kain. Sri Lanka said: "In the long run, we are not in the world."
In order to solve the feasibility and immediacy of the valuation of securities, the practice community has developed a number of evaluation methods. The use of a single indicator has a partial bias (for example, only paying attention to the P/E ratio, the stock price ratio, the stock price ratio, and the dividend). Yield, return on capital, or return on equity. The data in a single financial statement is a missing piece of analysis (for example, only the data of the most recent year or the most recent quarter), but only the estimated future development of the company. It is not possible to specifically present the investment value of the securities (such as the estimated P/E ratio, the estimated earnings growth rate, the estimated revenue growth rate, and the P/E ratio divided by the expected earnings growth rate per share).
Moreover, the more complex the evaluation model of the value of the securities or the more evaluation factors, the easier it is to make a difference and lose a lot. How to use the relatively important key factors to evaluate the investment value of securities in a myriad of value variables is also an important investment issue for investors.
On the other hand, the quantitative calculation of the value of securities helps to judge the investment value of securities and evaluate the relative value between securities, but the accuracy of the value of securities is not necessary, because the roughly correct estimate is far better than the accurate error calculation. . After all, the purpose of the investment is only to be able to buy the value of the securities that are worth the money, or to improve the overall profitability when managing the portfolio.
At present, there is a lack of a systematic quantitative investment method and a sound investment structure in the market, which can highlight the company's longterm business performance and future valueadded potential, and can be used to simplify the expected return of investment with a few key factors.
There are two options for the portfolio management method of a corporate investment institution. One is active investment, which is an evaluation of the investment value of each securities to determine the overbuy or underselling; the other is passive investment, also known as The index investment method tracks a specific index to adjust the shareholding position of the securities.
In the case of passive portfolio management, tens of trillions of capital is invested in the market value weighting index or based on the market value weighting index. In particular, the scale of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) has exceeded 1.2 trillion US dollars by the end of 2011. The most frequently mentioned index is the market capitalization weighted index generated by using constituent stocks (such as Taiwan Fifty Index or Standard & Poor's 500). Index), the city of constituent stocks As the value increases, the weight in the index increases, and as the market value decreases, the weight decreases. The market capitalization weighted index is based on the efficiency market. The resulting problem will cause the stocks with high stock prices to be overweighted because of the weight of the index. Otherwise, the stocks with low stock prices are because The weight of the index is reduced and oversubtracted. As a result, the return on the portfolio will be degraded, and at the same time, the result of chasing high and low in the speculative bubble market or panic short market. Thereby enhancing the cluster behavior of the securities market. High dividend indices (such as Taiwan's high dividend index) are another form of index formation that is favored in addition to the market capitalization index, but high dividends do not necessarily represent high returns. The formation of high dividend indices only comes from the distribution of expected cash dividends. The amount of passive portfolio management that tracks high dividend indices fails to take into account the return on investment from potential capital gains.
Therefore, investors need a portfolio that can balance capital gains and cash dividends and its management methods, in order to avoid the use of high dividend index management portfolio to generate a partial bias, and exclude the use of market valueweighted index management portfolio to cause chasing High killing low ills.
In view of the shortcomings and problems of the abovementioned conventional securities investment methods, the inventors of the present invention have improved and innovated, so that investors can objectively and comprehensively evaluate the investment value of securities.
In view of the above problems of the prior art, the object of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating the value of securities investment that can be learned from the past, which can demonstrate the longterm business performance and future valueadded potential of the company, and can be simplified to a few key factors. The expected return on the specific investment, investors can make rational investment decisions to reduce investment risks.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the investment value of a security, which is used for quantifying the investment value of a security, comprising the steps of: setting an evaluation date, based on financial accounting data of the securities in the plural historical year before the evaluation date; To generate a value factor; the value factor may include an average return on equity, an average cash dividend allotment rate, a shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and a base year The earnings per share; the base year consists of four quarters, which are four consecutive quarters from the assessment date to obtain financial accounting information; based on the value factor, the base year after the base year The evaluation factor may include an expected earnings per share, an expected cash dividend per share, and an expected shareholder's equity per share; a final estimated stock price based on the principaltoearnings ratio of the securities and the expected earnings per share; and a transaction price based on the securities , expected cash dividend per share, the last estimated stock price, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year to output the expected annualized rate of return.
The aforementioned financial accounting information may include shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends.
Financial accounting information may also include shareholders' equity, net profit per share, and cash dividend per share.
The aforesaid transaction price may be the average of the immediate or closing price in the intraday of the valuation date, the closing price of the day before the valuation date, or the closing price of the multiple trading days before the valuation date.
In order to mitigate the impact of abnormal data of a single annual financial accounting data on the judgment of the value of securities investment, the number of years in the above plural historical year may be at least 5 years; on the other hand, in order to avoid the impact of market volatility on the future value assessment of enterprises, the plural The estimated number of years can be at least 3 years.
The aforesaid average return on equity may be the average of the return on equity of the historical year prior to the date of assessment.
The aforesaid average cash dividend allotment rate may be the average of the cash dividend allotment rates for the historical year prior to the assessment date.
The aforesaid P/E ratio may be the P/E ratio of the base year, or the average of the P/E ratio of the historical year prior to the assessment date, or a preset value.
In addition, another object of the present invention is to provide a method for processing a portfolio that can balance the intrinsic value of securities with the relative value of securities to construct a sound investment structure or modify an investor's original investment portfolio. And can avoid chasing high and low irrational investment behavior.
The method for processing a portfolio of the present invention described above is for constructing or modifying a portfolio, comprising the steps of: selecting a plurality of preselected securities, setting an evaluation date, and collecting securities information of each preselected securities, the securities data including the evaluation date Financial accounting information, priceearnings ratio, and transaction price; preselected securities may be securities selected by the investor from the trading market, or may be constituent securities of a particular index or fund; the evaluation date may be a method for processing the investment portfolio by the present invention. On or before the date; financial accounting information may include shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year prior to the date of assessment; financial accounting information may also include shareholders' equity and earnings per share for the historical year prior to the date of assessment. And the cash dividend per share; wherein the historical year is the year in which the securities related financial information can be obtained before the assessment date, and the number of years in the plural historical year may be at least 3 years; each preselected securities are generated based on the financial accounting data of each preselected securities. The value factor, the value factor may include the average return on equity, the average cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year; wherein the base year consists of four quarters. The four quarters mentioned are calculated from the evaluation date to obtain the financial accounting information. For four consecutive quarters; based on the value factors of each preselected securities, respectively, the evaluation factors for the multipleyears after the base year are generated. The evaluation factors may include expected earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity per share; The estimated annual number of years may be at least 2 years; the lowest estimated share price is generated based on the P/E ratio of each preselected securities and the expected earnings per share; based on the transaction price of each preselected securities, the expected cash dividend per share, and the last Estimating the stock price, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year, respectively outputting the expected annualized return rate of each preselected securities; and assigning weights to each preselected securities according to the expected annualized return rate of each preselected securities to construct or modify the portfolio The expected annualized rate of return is positively correlated with the assigned weight.
The financial quality of the aforementioned preselected securities may be the decisionmaking factor of whether the investor makes an investment. Therefore, the steps of generating the value factors of each preselected securities based on the financial accounting materials of the preselected securities respectively are generated separately from the aforementioned value factors according to the preselected securities. The step of evaluating the evaluation factors of the plurality of estimated years after the base year may include the step of rejecting each preselected securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition, wherein the value condition may include: the average return on equity is greater than the first predetermined value; The first preset value may be greater than or equal to zero.
The expected annualized return rate of the aforementioned preselected securities may be whether the investor will preselect The securities are included in the decisionmaking elements of the investment portfolio. Therefore, the foregoing steps of outputting the expected annualized return rate of each preselected securities and the aforementioned steps of constructing or modifying the investment portfolio may include preselection of the expected annualized return rate that does not meet the remuneration conditions. The step of eliminating the securities; wherein the reward condition may include: the expected annualized rate of return is greater than a second predetermined value; and the second predetermined value may be greater than or equal to zero. By eliminating preselected securities with poor investment return potential, we will improve the investment performance of the revised portfolio.
In the above method of processing a portfolio, the P/E ratio may be the P/E ratio of the base year, the average of the P/E ratio of the historical year before the assessment date, or a preset value; the transaction price may be the closing price of the valuation date. The average of the closing price of the day before the valuation date or the closing price of the multiple trading days before the valuation date.
Furthermore, it is still another object of the present invention to provide a method for constructing an index by constructing an index by taking into account the expected annualized return rate of capital gains and cash dividends, on the one hand making up for the high dividend yield without considering capital gains, and It also avoids the problem that the market valueweighted index overweights the overvalued securities and the underweight of the undervalued securities; at the same time, the replacement and weight allocation of the index constituents selected by the expected annualized return rate is objective, transparent and The characteristics of the copy are beneficial to the adjustment of the institutional corporate portfolio, and are suitable as tracking targets for index stock funds and index linked products.
The method for constructing an index of the present invention is for constructing an index having a predetermined number of securities, comprising the steps of: selecting a plurality of securities, the number of selected securities may be greater than or equal to the predetermined number; setting an evaluation date, collecting each The securities information of securities, which may include: financial accounting information, priceearnings ratio, and transaction price before the date of assessment; financial accounting information may include: shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year prior to the date of assessment, Wherein, the evaluation date may be any day on or before the method of constructing the index of the present invention, and the number of years in the plural historical year may be at least 5 years; the transaction price may be the closing price of the evaluation date, the closing price of the day before the evaluation date, Or the average of the closing prices on the multiple trading days before the valuation date; the value factors are generated based on the financial accounting data of the selected securities. The value factors may include: average return on equity, average cash dividend allotment rate, The shareholder's equity per share for the base year and the earnings per share for the base year; wherein the base year consists of four quarters, which are four consecutive quarters from the assessment date to obtain financial accounting information. Quarterly; based on the value factors of each security, the valuation factors of each securities in the multiple estimated years after the base year are respectively generated, wherein the evaluation factors may include the expected earnings per share for the forecast year, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected Shareholders' equity per share; wherein the number of years in the forecast year may be at least 3 years; the expected share price per share of the respective stocks based on the expected earnings per share and the pricetoearnings ratio of each of the securities; The price, the last estimated stock price, the expected cash dividend per share, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year to output the expected annualized return rate of each of the securities; the securities can be selected from large to small based on the expected annualized rate of return. The constituent securities of the index, the number of selected securities is equal to the aforementioned predetermined number; the expected annualized return rate of each component of the securities is used to weight each component of the securities to be configured The weighting is given to each component of the securities, and the expected annualized rate of return is positively correlated with the configured weight; the weighting may include: the weight of each component of the securities is not more than a predetermined value; and the weighting may include: using each component of the securities The standard deviation of the return on equity in the plural historical year corrects the weight of the constituent securities; the standard deviation is inversely related to the assigned weight.
The financial physique of the enterprise that selects the constituent securities of the index may be the decisionmaking factor of whether the investor makes an investment. Therefore, the foregoing steps of generating the value factor based on the financial accounting data of the selected securities may be between the abovementioned value factors of each securities. The method includes the steps of rejecting each of the securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition; wherein the value condition may be that the average return on equity is greater than a preset value; and the preset value may be greater than or equal to zero.
The aforesaid P/E ratio may be the P/E ratio of the base year, the average of the P/E ratio of the historical year prior to the assessment date, or a preset value.
In the foregoing method of constructing an index of the present invention, the reintegration includes periodically reconstructing the index; the periodicity may be monthly, quarterly, or yearly.
In addition, it is added that the method of evaluating the investment value of the aforementioned securities, the method of processing the investment portfolio, and the method of constructing the index can be realized by the computer program product of the internal storage securities information processing program, for example, the computer program product is An electronic device or storage medium such as a computer, a network server (such as a cloud device), or a mobile device (such as a mobile phone), etc., the investor executes the stored securities information processing program through the aforementioned electronic device, or through any one of The electronic device that can read the securities information processing program stored in the storage medium implements the various methods of the present invention described above after executing the program. The various methods of the invention described above can also be implemented in a particular data processing system.
In summary, the method for evaluating the investment value of the securities of the present invention, the method for processing the investment portfolio, and the method for constructing the index and the computer program product of the internal securities processing program can be used to quantify the securities using the expected annualized return rate. The value of the investment is used as a tradeoff criterion for whether or not to include the portfolio; and the relative value between the securities is evaluated at the expected annualized rate of return to determine the weight allocation and purchase position of the plurality of securities in the portfolio. The invention can also be applied to a modified and improved reference to existing portfolios. Therefore, the present invention utilizes the return on equity, the cash dividend payout ratio, the shareholder's equity per share in the base year, and the cash dividend per share as a common value factor for constructing a sound investment structure, compared to the existing valuation method of securities investment value. Rather than treating it as a single independent indicator, it not only reduces the overall regret, but also achieves the effect of simplicity and complexity. The establishment of the evaluation factor for the future of the company is also based on longterm operation with the company. Performancerelated historical financial accounting data to establish the value factor, to avoid investors' excessive optimistic expectations and cause investment losses; finally join the transaction price and the P/E ratio to produce the expected annualized return rate, not only can quantify the investment value of securities It can also assess the relative value of securities as a rational criterion for investment decisions and investment discipline.
The technical contents of the present invention are described below by way of specific embodiments, and those skilled in the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of the present invention from the disclosure of the present specification. The invention may also be embodied or applied by other different embodiments. The details of the present invention can be variously modified and changed without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
The securities of the present invention may include stocks, index stock funds, and common foundations. Gold, or other financial products with financial accounting information available for reference. The company or enterprise described in the present invention is a broad concept, such as a stock issue company, an issue company of an index stock fund in which an underlying stock is invested, and a issuer of a stock underlying stock in a mutual fund. The financial accounting materials described in the present invention may be directly obtained or calculated by the financial statements of the issuing company, and the financial statements may be quarterly reports, semiannual reports, or annual reports. The year described in the embodiment is not limited to the calendar year or the fiscal year of the company's operation. It refers to the year consisting of four consecutive quarters. There is no overlapping quarter between the year and the year, and each has two adjacent years. The first quarter was able to be adjacent to one of the other quarters. The surplus and net profit described in the present invention have substantially the same meaning, and both mean the profit of the company or the enterprise.
The present invention improves the way in which the investment value of securities is evaluated to improve the shortcomings of the conventional valuation method. Please refer to FIG. 1 , which is a flowchart of a method for evaluating the investment value of a security of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1 , in order to quantify the investment value of the securities to be evaluated, in step S101 , an evaluation method for applying the value of the securities of the present invention may be set. The execution date is used as the evaluation date. Since one year consists of four consecutive quarters, starting from the evaluation date, the last four consecutive quarters in which financial accounting information can be obtained are used as the base year Y _{0} , starting from the base year Y _{0} . Go forward to collect the shareholders of the plural m+1 years (hereinafter referred to as the historical year) Y _{0} , Y _{1} , ..., Y _{ (m1)} , Y  _{m} (historical annual symbol is marked by the back) Equity EQUITY _{0} to EQUITY _{m} , net profit EARNING _{0} to EARNING _{m} , and cash dividends CD _{0} to CD _{m} and other financial accounting materials to generate a value factor for assessing the company's financial physique, where the base year Y _{0} is the historical year Y _{0} , the net profit is net profit after tax, net profit before tax or net profit before tax.
The value factors resulting from the financial accounting information for the historical year of the above securities include the average return on equity ROEAVG, the average cash dividend payout ratio CDERAVG, the base year Y _{0} per shareholder equity BVPS _{0} , and the base year Y _{0} earnings per share EPS _{0.}
In an embodiment, in order to avoid the impact of the economic cycle or abnormal annual performance on the financial accounting data, the number of years m+1 of the historical year may be at least 5 years, that is, m may be at least 4.
The return on equity represents the operating efficiency of the company's investment in the capital invested by the shareholders. The annual return on equity is the net profit of the year except for the previous year's shareholders'equity; in one embodiment, the annual net profit is available for four consecutive quarters of the year. The net profit after taxation for the quarterly report is added to the total; and the shareholders' equity is the net amount of shareholders' equity for the last quarter of the four consecutive quarters of the year. An exemplary calculation of the average return on equity is as follows:
The base year Y _{0} of _{0} EPS base line earnings per share for the year Y _{0} net profit divided by the number of shares outstanding base year Y _{0,} the profitability of each of the shares on behalf of, the securities can be used for different profitability on the same basis Comparison. The base year earnings per share can be a basic earnings per share or a diluted earnings per share.
In one embodiment, EPS _{0} is the basic earnings per share, and the number of issued shares is the number of outstanding shares of common stock that can be obtained in the last quarterly report of four consecutive quarters of the base year, which is added due to the surplus or capital reserve transferred to capital increase. The shares are subject to retrospective adjustment calculations.
In another embodiment, EPS _{0} is a diluted earnings per share, and the number of issued shares is the number of outstanding shares of common stock that can be obtained in the last quarter of the four consecutive quarters of the base year, and is added as a result of surplus or capital reserve to increase capital. The shares are subject to retrospective adjustment calculations and assume that all dilutive potential ordinary shares are traded outside the base year to calculate the diluted earnings per share; the potential common shares include convertible corporate bonds issued by the company and shareholders The employee dividends that will be resolved for stock issuance are potential ordinary shares.
Shareholders share interests in the base year Y _{0} Y _{0} of _{0} BVPS annual benchmark system 'equity divided by number of shares of the base year Y _{0;} each represents the net value of the shares enjoyed by the different securities can be made on the same basis on net Comparison. In one embodiment, the shareholder's equity in the base year is the net amount of shareholders' equity that is amortized in the last quarterly report of the year.
The financial accounting information of each historical year Y _{0} to Y _{m} may also include the shareholders' equity, earnings per share and cash dividend per share of the annual financial statements in each historical year, wherein the earnings per share is Aftertax surplus, or pretax earnings per share, therefore, when calculating the value factor, the annual return on equity is the annual earnings per share divided by the previous year's shareholders' equity, the annual cash dividend allotment rate For the current year's cash dividend per share, except for the previous year's earnings per share, the shareholder's equity and earnings per share of the base year Y _{0} can be directly obtained from financial accounting information without double counting.
In step S102, the value year is used to generate the reference year Y _{0} after the plural n years (hereinafter referred to as the estimated year) Y _{1} , Y _{2} , ..., Y _{n1} , Y _{n} (estimated annual symbol is traveled Postlabeled) evaluation factor for investors to estimate the company's future business performance potential to measure investment quality. The evaluation factors include expected EPS per share EPS _{1} to EPS _{n} , expected cash dividend per share CDPS _{1} to CDPS _{n} , and expected per Shareholders' equity BVPS _{1} to BVPS _{n} are exemplified as follows: Expected earnings per share EPS _{ j } = BVPS _{ j 1} × ROEAVG , expected cash dividend per share CDPS _{ j } = EPS _{ j 1} × CDERAVG , expected shareholder equity per share BVPS _{ j } = BVPS _{ j 1} + EPS _{ j }  CDPS _{ j } , where the arguments j = 1 to n, in another embodiment, if the earnings per share for the base year or the expected earnings per share for the estimated year is negative, The expected calculation of the expected cash dividend per share CDPS _{1} to CDPS _{n} is as follows: expected cash dividend per share CDPS _{ j } = max , ( EPS _{ j 1} × CDERAVG , where the arguments j=1 to n.
In one embodiment, to avoid the impact of financial market volatility on the final estimated stock price, the number n of years of the plural estimate may be at least 3 years.
In one embodiment, when the securities issue company publishes the financial forecast for the estimated annual Y _{1} before the evaluation date, if the expected earnings per share in the financial forecast is a single value, the expected earnings per share announced by the securities issue company As the estimated earnings per share of the annual Y _{1} EPS _{1} ; if the expected earnings per share in the financial forecast is a range, the expected median or average of the earnings per share range is the expected annual Y _{1} per Stock surplus EPS _{1} .
In one embodiment, the issuers of the securities in the assessment before the date of the published estimates annual cash dividend per share for Y _{1,} the places announced cash dividend per share estimates as the expected annual cash dividend per share Y _{1} CDPS _{1} .
Investors have expectations of the stock price, hoping to conjecture possible future stockspecific annual estimates, thus, in step S103, the estimated annual Y Y _{n} based on annual estimates of expected earnings per share EPS _{n} and PE ratio output _{n} estimated stock price  the last estimated stock price P _{n} , the estimated annual Y _{n} priceearnings ratio can be averaged by the average of the historical interest ratio of each historical year to get the average priceearnings ratio PERAVG, the average priceearnings ratio and An exemplary calculation of the last estimated stock price P _{n} is as follows:
The last estimated stock price P _{ n } = EPS _{ n } × PERAVG .
In one embodiment, the P/E ratio for each historical year may be the average share price per share for the year divided by the earnings per share; wherein the average share price per share may be the total transaction amount of the securities transaction for the year divided by the total number of shares traded.
In another embodiment, the P/E data is available in the annual statements included in each historical year and is directly quoted to calculate the average P/E ratio PERUVG.
In another embodiment, the investor can use the P/E ratio PER _{0} of the base year Y _{0 as} the P/E ratio of the estimated annual Y _{n} . The exemplary calculation of the last estimated stock price P _{n} is as follows: Stock price P _{ n } = EPS _{ n } × PER _{0} In another embodiment, for the conservative estimate of the last estimated stock price P _{n} , the pricetoearnings ratio can be used as the smaller of the average pricetoearnings ratio and the benchmark annual P/E ratio; An exemplary calculation of the estimated stock price P _{n} is as follows: The last estimated stock price P _{ n } = EPS _{ n } × min [ PER _{0} , PERAVG ] In another embodiment, it is the last estimated stock price of the conservatively estimated growth stock P _{n} The P/E ratio may be replaced by a predetermined value, which may be a value less than or equal to 15.
Investors can estimate the potential capital gains by the difference between the trading price P _{0 of the} securities and the last estimated stock price P _{n} . Therefore, the price of the securities can also be an element of the investor's investment evaluation. The price of the securities, that is, the transaction price P _{0} , represents the quantitative value of the investment market for the securities per share, that is, the price, which can be valued immediately on the valuation date. The price or closing price, which is a quick response market evaluation of the securities per share; it can also be based on the closing price of the previous day of the evaluation date to understand how the investment market in the previous day views the quantitative value of the securities; it can also be valued in the assessment. The average of the closing prices of the previous trading days before the day is averaged to quantify the value of the securities per share to reduce the impact of abnormal price fluctuations or artificial speculation.
In step S104, the transaction price P _{0} is exemplarily used as the present value, and the expected cash dividends of each of the n estimated years, CDPS _{1} to CDPS _{n are} used as the annuity, the last estimated stock price P _{n} as the final value, and the plural The total number of years n of the estimated year is used as the number of periods, and the expected annualized return rate RATE can be output using the annuity formula; the exemplary calculation of the expected annualized return rate is as follows:
In another embodiment, in order to simplify the calculation of the expected annualized return rate RATE, the expected cash dividend per share for each of the n estimated years, CDPS _{1} to CDPS _{n} average CDPSAVG, can be used as a fixed annuity, with an average expected cash per share. An exemplary calculation of the dividend is as follows:
In this embodiment, an exemplary calculation of the expected annualized return rate RATE is as follows:
In one embodiment, the financial accounting information of the multiple historical years of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) includes a weighted average of the shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends of the constituent stocks, and then sequentially generates a value factor, An assessment factor is generated and the expected annual rate of return for the ETF is ultimately produced.
Investors can use the expected annualized return rate RATE to assess the investment value of securities.
Dispersing funds in multiple securities and forming a portfolio to diversify investment risks is a widely accepted concept in the investment market, but how to allocate funds for each securities with integrated assessment methods and specific quantitative objective data is an investor. The present invention has proposed a solution method for this purpose. Please refer to FIG. 2, which is a flow chart of the method for processing a portfolio of the present invention.
As shown in FIG. 2, first, in step S201, a plurality of preselected securities are selected, an evaluation date is set, and securities information of each preselected securities is collected, and the securities information includes financial accounting materials, a priceearning ratio, and a transaction price before the evaluation date; The financial and accounting information may include shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year prior to the date of assessment; or, financial accounting information may also include shareholders' equity, net profit per share, and Cash dividend per share, where the net profit is net profit after tax, net profit before tax or pretax net profit, and the net profit per share is net profit per share after tax, net profit per share before tax or net profit before tax per share. And the number of years in the selected plural historical year may be at least 5 years; the P/E ratio may be the P/E ratio of the base year, the average of the P/E ratio of the historical year before the assessment date, or the preset value; It can be the average of the closing price of the valuation date, the closing price of the day before the valuation date, or the closing price of the multiple trading days before the valuation date.
In step S202, the financial accounting materials of each preselected securities are separately produced. The preselected securities are used to represent the value factor of the company's financial value. The value factors include the average return on equity, the average cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year. Since the technical idea of step S202 is consistent with the previous step S101, it is not described herein.
Optionally, in order to maintain the financial quality of each preselected securities in the investment portfolio, in step S203, a value condition is set according to the value factor, and the preselected securities that do not meet the value revision are excluded, wherein the value condition may include the shareholders' equity The rate of return is greater than zero, and the value condition may also include the shareholder's equity per share in the base year being greater than zero.
In step S204, an evaluation factor for a plurality of estimated years after the base year is generated according to the value factors of each preselected securities, and the evaluation factors include an expected earnings per share, an expected cash dividend per share, and an expected shareholder's equity per share, wherein, The number of years in the estimation year may be at least 3 years. Since the technical idea of step S204 is consistent with the previous step S102, it is not described herein.
In step S205, the last estimated stock price is generated according to the P/E ratio of each preselected securities and the expected earnings per share. Since the technical idea of step S205 is consistent with the previous step S103, it is not described herein.
In step S206, the expected annualized return rate is respectively output according to the transaction price of each preselected security, the expected cash dividend per share, the last estimated stock price, and the total number of years of the complex forecast year; due to the technical idea of step S206 The foregoing step S104 is consistent, and therefore is not described herein.
Alternatively, in order to take into account the expected annualized return rate of the overall investment portfolio, in step S207, a reward condition is set according to the expected annualized return rate, and the preselected securities that do not meet the reward condition are excluded, wherein the reward condition may include an expectation The annualized rate of return is greater than zero, and the remuneration condition may also include the expected annualized rate of return being greater than or equal to the riskfree rate of return; the riskfree rate may be the term of the longterm government bond.
Finally, in step S208, the expected annualized return rate of each preselected security is used as a weight for each preselected security to construct or modify the investment portfolio.
In one embodiment, the weight of each preselected security in the portfolio may be the expected annualized return rate of the preselected securities divided by the expected annualized return rate of all preselected securities. The sum of the weights of all preselected securities is 100%. The investor multiplies the total investment amount by the weight of each preselected securities as the amount of each preselected securities.
In another embodiment, in order to avoid concentration of the risk of the portfolio due to the weight of the single preselected securities being too large, the weight of each preselected security may be limited to not exceed a predetermined value.
In order to meet the diversified investment needs of the market, a number of indices have been developed to show the economic physiques of different market segments, such as the Taiwan index series. The stocks of representative listed companies in the Taiwan stock market are selected as constituent stocks to recognize specific market capitalization. , industry or ethnic group performance, and as a tracking target for indexed goods and investment performance measures. Accordingly, the present invention further provides a method of constructing an index for constructing an index having a predetermined number of securities and managing the investment portfolio using the index.
Please refer to FIG. 3, which is a flow chart of a method for constructing an index of the present invention for constructing an index having a predetermined number of securities, and using the index to manage at least one investment portfolio.
As shown in FIG. 3, in step S301, a plurality of securities are selected, and the number of selected securities is greater than or equal to the predetermined number, and the selected securities source may be a specific market segment, and the market segment may be a specific region, country, Industry, or company size; the predetermined number is the number of securities that make up the index.
In one embodiment, individual stocks of the top 500 market capitalizations of the US stock exchange market may be selected, and then a predetermined number of 300 stocks are produced to form an index.
Also, in another embodiment, a stock of the 501st largest market capitalization of the US stock exchange market to a market value of 2000 may be selected, and then a predetermined number of 1,000 stocks may be produced to form an index.
Further, in another embodiment, stocks of the top 1000 market capitalizations other than the US stock exchange market may be selected, and then a predetermined number of 700 stocks are produced to form an index.
Moreover, in another embodiment, the top 100 stocks of the electronic stocks in the Taiwan stock exchange market may be selected, and then a predetermined number of 50 stocks are produced to form an index.
In step S302, the execution date of the method for applying the construction index of the present invention may be set as the evaluation date, and the securities information of each securities may be collected. The securities information may include: financial accounting materials, a priceearning ratio, and a transaction price; Includes: shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year prior to the assessment date, which may be at least 3 years in the plural historical year; the net profit may be net profit after tax, net profit before tax or before tax. Net profit; the transaction price can be the average of the closing price of the valuation date, the closing price of the day before the valuation date, or the closing price of the previous trading day before the valuation date; the pricetoearnings ratio can be the P/E ratio of the base year and the plural history before the evaluation date. The average of the annual P/E ratio, or the preset value.
In step S303, a value factor is generated according to the financial accounting data of each security, and the value factor may include: an average return on equity, an average cash dividend allotment rate, a shareholder's equity per share in the base year, and an earnings per share in the base year. Since the technical idea of step S303 is consistent with the previous step S101, it is not described herein.
In step S304, the securities whose value factors are not in accordance with the value condition are excluded to maintain the financial constitution of each securities in the investment portfolio; however, all securities may meet the value condition, so step S304 may also be ignored, that is, Step S304 is optional.
In an embodiment, the value condition may be that the average shareholder equity is greater than zero.
Also, in another embodiment, the above value condition may be a publicly traded transaction for more than three years.
In step S305, according to the value factor of each security, the evaluation factors of each securities in the plural estimation year after the base year are respectively generated, and the determined plurality of years may be at least 2 years, wherein the evaluation factors include plural numbers. Estimated annual earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity per share. Since the technical idea of step S305 is consistent with the previous step S102, it is not described here.
In step S306, the expected stock price per share and the costbenefit ratio of each of the securities respectively generate the last estimated stock price of the complex forecast year. Since the technical idea of step S306 is consistent with the previous step S103, it is not here. Narration.
In step S307, according to the transaction price of each security, the last estimated stock price, the expected cash dividend per share, and the total number of years of the complex forecast year, the expected annualized return rate of each securities is output, due to the technology of step S307. The idea is consistent with the previous step S104, and therefore is not described herein.
In step S308, each of the securities is selected as the component securities of the index according to the expected annualized return rate, and the number of selected securities is determined according to the predetermined number. It should be noted that it is not limited to the abovementioned sorting methods from large to small, and can also be sorted from small to large, in other words, any sorting method that is convenient for investors to browse and select can be applied.
In step S309, each component securities is weighted by using the expected annualized return rate of each component security to allocate weights to each component securities, and the expected annualized return rate is positively correlated with the configured weight; the investor can set a predetermined value as the weight. The upper limit, the proportion of the investment amount of each component of the securities to the total investment amount is less than or equal to the upper limit of the weight to avoid the concentration of investment risk. The predetermined value of the upper limit of the weight may be 10%, but is not limited thereto; In the case of securities, the weight of the constituent securities may be corrected by the standard deviation of the return on equity of each component of the securities in the plural historical year, wherein the standard deviation is negatively correlated with the configured weight.
In addition, the investment portfolio can be managed by the above method of constructing an index, that is, in step S310, the portfolio is managed according to the weight of the constituent securities of the constituent index and the constituent securities, wherein the socalled management includes: when the index When the component securities change or the weight of the component securities changes, the weights of the constituent securities of the index are used to adjust the relevant weights of the constituent securities in the portfolio. The index provider may reexecute steps S301 through S309 on a quarterly basis to reconstruct the index.
The method for evaluating the investment value of the securities of the present invention, the method for processing the portfolio, and the method for constructing the index can be written as a securities information processing program and loaded into a computer program such as a handheld device, a computer or a network server (for example, a cloud device). Execution in the product can also be developed into a system or device for use by investors, but not limited to this, the securities information processing program can also be loaded into a storage function such as a hard disk, a floppy disk, a compact disc or a flash drive. Computer program product, but for For example, the electronic device such as the handheld device, the computer or the network server reads the securities information processing program stored in the computer program product, and executes the abovementioned book after the electronic device reads the security information processing program and executes the electronic information processing program. Various methods of the invention.
Please refer to FIG. 4 , which is a system architecture diagram of a method for processing a portfolio by applying the present invention. As shown in FIG. 4 , the portfolio information system 40 has a securities database 401 and a portfolio processing device 41 , and the portfolio information system 40 is A source 42, such as the New York Stock Exchange, collects securities information of each preselected security and stores it in a securities database 401, which may be a hard disk, a disk array system, or a flash memory. The storage medium; the portfolio processing device 41 implements the technical idea of the present invention by using the securities data stored in the securities database 401 to generate the investment portfolio 43.
In the portfolio processing device 41, the data retrieval and storage subsystem 411 implements the foregoing step S201, searches the securities database 401 and retrieves the securities data of each preselected securities according to the selected preselected securities and the set evaluation date, including The financial accounting information, the P/E ratio and the transaction price; the value factor generator 412 implements the foregoing step S202, inputs the financial accounting data of each security from the data retrieval and storage subsystem 411, and outputs a value factor; the value condition filter 413 implements the foregoing step S203. The selfvalue factor generator 412 inputs the value factor of each preselected security and filters according to the foregoing value conditions, and rejects the preselected securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition, that is, no longer outputs, and only the value factor meets the value condition. The value factor of the preselected securities is output to the evaluation factor generator 414; the evaluation factor generator 414 implements the aforementioned step S204, inputs the value factor from the value condition filter 413 and generates an evaluation factor; the expected annualized rate of return generator 415 implements the aforementioned step S205 and S206, the evaluation factor generator 414 inputs the evaluation factor And inputting the transaction price and the P/E ratio from the data retrieval and storage subsystem 411 to generate the last expected stock price and the expected annualized return rate of each preselected security; the reward condition filter 416 implements the foregoing step S207, and generates the expected annualized return rate. The device 415 inputs and filters the expected annualized return rate of each preselected security, and the preselected securities whose expected annualized return rate does not meet the foregoing remuneration conditions are rejected. Except that, that is, no output is performed, only the expected annualized return rate of the preselected securities whose expected annualized return rate meets the reward condition is output to the weight configurator 417; the weight configurator 417 implements the aforementioned step S208, the selfreward condition filter 416 Enter the expected annualized return rate of each security, weight each securities according to the principle of positive correlation between the expected return rate and the weight, and allocate the weights of each securities to the portfolio 43 for investors' reference. Asset allocation.
For example, the portfolio information system 41 can be implemented as a system chip (SOC) by integrated circuit technology, and the securities data is input from the securities database 401 in the form of digitized data, and the generated portfolio 43 is digitally digitized. The manner of data is outputted to the display device for reference by the investor. More specifically, in an embodiment, the portfolio information system 40 can be, for example, a web server, and the display device is, for example, an investment. For the terminal device such as a mobile phone or a personal computer, the portfolio processing device 41 may be, for example, a necessary hardware component for the portfolio information system 40 to generate the aforementioned investment portfolio 43, such as the aforementioned system wafer, circuit or the foregoing. The computer program product and the like for storing the securities information processing program; in another embodiment, the portfolio information system 40 can also be, for example, a terminal device such as a personal computer; in other words, different systems depending on the implementation type. Architecture.
Referring to FIG. 5, a method for constructing an index of the present invention is applied and a system architecture diagram of portfolio management is provided. As shown in FIG. 5, the index construction information system 50 has a securities database 501, an index weight processing device 51, and an index generation. And a portfolio management server 54, the index construction information system 50 collects securities information of the plurality of securities greater than or equal to a predetermined number in the investment market from the securities data source 52, such as the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and stores the securities information in the securities database 501. The securities database 501 may be a storage medium composed of a hard disk, a disk array system, or a flash memory; the index weight processing device 51 inputs the securities data stored in the securities database 501 and implements the technology of the present invention. The idea is to generate a weight of the securities, the index generator 53 generates an index by the weight of the securities, and the portfolio management server 54 manages the portfolio according to the index.
In the index weight processing device 51, the data retrieval and storage subsystem 511 Implementing the foregoing step S302, searching the securities database 501 according to the selected securities and the set evaluation date, and extracting the securities information of each securities, including financial accounting materials, the P/E ratio, and the transaction price; the value factor generator 512 Implementing the foregoing step S303, inputting the financial accounting data of each security from the data retrieval and storage subsystem 511 and outputting a value factor; the value condition filter 513 implements the foregoing step S304, and inputs the value factor of each security from the value factor generator 512 and according to the foregoing The value condition is filtered, and the securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition are eliminated, that is, the output is no longer output, and only the value factor of the securities whose value factors meet the value condition are output to the evaluation factor generator 514; the evaluation factor generator 514 is implemented. In the foregoing step S305, the value factor is input from the value condition filter 513 and an evaluation factor is generated; the expected annualized rate of return generator 515 implements the aforementioned steps S306 and S307, and the evaluation factor generator 514 inputs the evaluation factor and the data retrieval and storage subsystem. 511 enter the transaction price and the P/E ratio to generate each preselection certificate The last expected stock price and the expected annualized return rate; the function of the reward condition filter 516 implements the foregoing step S308, and the expected annualized return rate of each security is input from the expected annualized return rate generator 515 and filtered, and the expected annualized The returns are sorted from large to small, a predetermined number of securities are sequentially selected from the maximum expected annualized return rate, and the expected annualized return rate of the predetermined number of securities is output to the weight configurator 517; the weight configurator 517 implements the aforementioned steps S309, the expected annualized return rate of each predetermined number of securities is input from the reward condition filter 516, and each of the securities is weighted according to the principle that the expected compounded rate of return is positively correlated with the weights to allocate weights to the respective securities.
The index generator 53 inputs the weights w _{1} to w _{n of the} respective securities from the weight configurator 517, and generates an index IDX according to the stock prices P _{1} to P _{n of the} respective securities. The exemplary formation process of the index IDX is as follows: setting the base date and using The index weight processing means 51 generates the weights w' _{1} to w' _{n of the} portfolios of the securities on the base day and stores the stock prices P' _{1} to P' _{n of} the securities on the base date; the index value of the base date is defined, and the base index IDX' , for example 5000;
The portfolio management server 54 inputs the index IDX from the index generator 53, and adjusts the investment proportion of each securities in the portfolio by the weights w _{1} to w _{n} of each securities to correct the investment portfolio, so that the revised portfolio can track the index. Changes in IDX.
In an exemplary embodiment, constructing a highreward index, using the top 100 listed companies in the Taiwan stock market as the sampling parent, selecting 50 stocks with the highest expected annualized return rate in the next five years as constituent stocks, in the expected year. The rate of return is weighted to recognize the performance of companies with longterm profit potential.
In this embodiment, the respective securities information of the 100 companies before a specific evaluation date is collected, including the closing price of the day before the evaluation date, the annual P/E ratio of the five historical years before the evaluation date, and Shareholders' equity, aftertax net profit, and cash dividends for the five historical years prior to the assessment date.
Then calculate the value factor for each of the 100 stocks. Among them, the average return on equity is the sum of the net profit after tax of the first year to the fourth year before the evaluation date divided by the sum of the net shareholders' equity from the second year to the fifth year before the evaluation date; the average cash dividend allotment rate The sum of the cash dividends for the first year to the fourth year before the evaluation date divided by the total net profit after tax for the second year to the fifth year before the evaluation date; the earnings per share for the base year is the four quarterly tax for the base year The sum of the net profit divided by the number of issued shares, the number of shares issued is based on the number of shares issued in the last quarterly report of the base year; the shareholder's equity per share is the net shareholder's equity recorded in the last quarterly report of the base year divided by Number of shares issued.
Then, the stocks that do not meet the value conditions are excluded, and the value condition is that the average return on equity is greater than zero. In this embodiment, there may be 80 stocks that meet the value condition, and the value factors of the seven stocks are as shown in Table 1.
Individual stocks that meet this value condition continue to generate separate assessment factors for the five years following the base year. The expected earnings per share for the first year after the base year is the average return on equity multiplied by the shareholder's equity per share for the base year; the expected cash dividend per share for the first year after the base year is the average cash dividend payout ratio multiplied by Earnings per share for the base year. The expected shareholder's equity per share for the first year after the base year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year plus the expected earnings per share for the first year after the base year minus the expected share per share for the first year after the base year Cash dividends; and so on, are calculated as the expected earnings per share and expected cash dividend per share for the fifth year after the base year.
The expected expected share price is calculated by multiplying the expected earnings per share for the fifth year after the base year of each of the base stocks by the P/E ratio; the P/E ratio is the average of the P/E ratio of each of the five historical years prior to the valuation date. value.
Based on the transaction price of each of the stocks, the last estimated stock price, the expected cash dividend per share for each year after the base year, and the total number of years in the estimated year, Output its expected annualized rate of return.
According to the expected annualized rate of return, 50 stocks are selected as the constituent stocks of the index from large to small, and the expected annualized return rate of each constituent stock is used to allocate weights to each constituent stock. The expected annualized return rate of the 50 constituent stocks may be increased to 500%, and the weight allocation of each constituent stock in the index is shown in Table 2.
Illustratively, the weighted allocation of the securities of each component may also be corrected by using the standard deviation of the annual return on equity (ROE) of each component securities before the evaluation date: for example, the correction value of the ROE standard deviation is less than or equal to 5% = 1.0, The ROE standard deviation is less than or equal to 10% and the correction value is greater than 5% = 0.9, the ROE standard deviation is less than or equal to 15% and the correction value is greater than 10% = 0.8, and the ROE standard deviation is greater than 15% correction value = 0.7, such as Table 3 shows.
In summary, the present invention utilizes the securities data including the transaction surface and the fundamental surface to quantify the value factors and evaluation factors used to judge the financial quality of the company and the quality of the securities investment, and further generate the expected annualized return rate of the securities, so that the investment It is an invention with both objectivity and integrity to evaluate the relative value of the investment value of securities and securities with specific data.
The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the principles and effects of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention. Modifications and variations of the abovedescribed embodiments can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Therefore, the scope of the claims of the present invention should be as described in the following claims.
S101‧‧‧Steps for generating a value factor
S102‧‧‧Steps for generating an evaluation factor
S103‧‧‧Steps to generate the last estimated stock price
S104‧‧‧Steps to output the expected annualized rate of return
S201‧‧‧Steps for selecting multiple securities
S202‧‧‧Steps to generate a value factor
S203‧‧‧Steps for the selection of value conditions
S204‧‧‧Steps for generating an evaluation factor
S205‧‧‧Steps to generate the last estimated stock price
S206‧‧‧ Steps to output the expected annualized rate of return
S207‧‧‧Steps for the selection of remuneration conditions
S208‧‧‧Steps to construct or amend the portfolio
S301‧‧‧Steps for selecting multiple securities
S302‧‧‧Steps for collecting securities information
S303‧‧‧Steps to generate value factors
S304‧‧‧Steps for performing value selection
S305‧‧‧Steps for generating an evaluation factor
S306‧‧‧Steps to generate the last estimated stock price
S307‧‧‧Steps to output the expected annualized rate of return
S308‧‧‧Steps for determining component securities
S309‧‧‧Steps for configuring weights
S310‧‧‧Steps for managing portfolios
40‧‧‧ Portfolio Information System
401‧‧‧ Securities Database
41‧‧‧ portfolio processing unit
411‧‧‧Data Retrieval and Storage Subsystem
412‧‧‧ Value Factor Generator
413‧‧‧Value Condition Filter
414‧‧‧Evaluation factor generator
415‧‧‧ Expected annualized rate of return generator
416‧‧‧Remunity condition filter
417‧‧‧weight configurator
42‧‧‧Source of securities information
43‧‧‧ portfolio
50‧‧‧ Index Construction Information System
501‧‧‧ Securities Database
51‧‧‧Index weight processing device
511‧‧‧Data Retrieval and Storage Subsystem
512‧‧‧Value Factor Generator
513‧‧‧Value Condition Filter
514‧‧‧Evaluation factor generator
515‧‧‧ Expected annualized rate of return generator
516‧‧‧Remunity condition filter
517‧‧‧weight configurator
52‧‧‧Source of securities information
53‧‧‧index generator
54‧‧‧ Portfolio Management Server
1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the investment value of a security of the present invention.
2 is a flow chart of a method of processing a portfolio of the present invention.
3 is a flow chart of a method for constructing an index of the present invention and a step of applying the method for managing a portfolio.
4 is a system architecture diagram of a method of processing a portfolio of the present invention.
Figure 5 is a system architecture diagram of a method of applying the index of construction of the present invention and providing portfolio management.
40‧‧‧ Portfolio Information System
401‧‧‧ Securities Database
41‧‧‧ portfolio processing unit
411‧‧‧Data Retrieval and Storage Subsystem
412‧‧‧ Value Factor Generator
413‧‧‧Value Condition Filter
414‧‧‧Evaluation factor generator
415‧‧‧ Expected annualized rate of return generator
416‧‧‧Remunity condition filter
417‧‧‧weight configurator
42‧‧‧Source of securities information
43‧‧‧ portfolio
Claims (24)
 An investment value evaluation method for securities, which is used for quantifying the investment value of a security, comprising the steps of: setting an evaluation date according to financial accounting data of the securities in the plural historical year before the evaluation date to generate a value factor; The value factors include the average return on equity, the average cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters, the four quarters The four consecutive quarters from which the financial accounting information can be obtained from the evaluation date; based on the value factor, an evaluation factor for the multiple forecast year after the base year is generated, which includes the expected earnings per share and expected cash per share. Dividends, and expected shareholder's equity per share; based on the pricetoearnings ratio of the securities and the expected earnings per share, the final estimated share price; and the transaction price of the securities, the expected cash dividend per share, the last estimated share price, and the plural Estimate the total number of years in the year to output the expected annualized return on the security.
 The method for assessing the investment value of securities as described in item 1 of the patent application, wherein the financial accounting information includes shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends.
 The method for assessing the investment value of securities as described in claim 1, wherein the foregoing evaluation factor is generated by: the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year after the base year is the shareholder of the base year The equity is multiplied by the average return on equity; the first estimated year is the first year that does not overlap with the base year from the base year; the expected cash dividend per share for the first forecast year is The earnings per share for the base year is multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year plus the expected earnings per share for the first forecast year Subtract the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; The expected earnings per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year multiplied by the average return on equity; the second estimated year is from the base year The second year that does not overlap with the first estimated year; the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; And the expected shareholder's equity per share for the second estimated year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year plus the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year minus the second forecast year. Cash dividend per share.
 A method for processing a portfolio for constructing or revising a portfolio includes the steps of: (1) selecting a plurality of preselected securities, setting an evaluation date, and collecting securities information of each of the preselected securities, the securities including the evaluation The financial accounting information, the P/E ratio, and the transaction price before the date; (2) The value factor of each preselected security is generated based on the financial accounting data of each preselected securities, which includes the average return on equity, average cash dividend The allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters, which are calculated from the assessment date. The accounting information is for four consecutive quarters; (3) based on the value factors of each of the preselected securities, respectively, the evaluation factor for the multiplepredicted year after the base year, which includes the expected earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expectations (4) The final estimated stock price is generated based on the P/E ratio of each preselected securities and the expected earnings per share; (5) The transaction price of each preselected security, the expected cash dividend per share, the last estimated stock price, and the total number of years of the complex forecast year, respectively, output the expected annualized return rate of each of the preselected securities; and (6) according to each The expected annualized return rate of the preselected securities is used as the weight of each of the preselected securities to construct or modify the investment portfolio; The expected annualized return rate of the voucher is positively correlated with the assigned weight.
 The method of processing a portfolio as described in claim 4, wherein the financial accounting information includes shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year prior to the assessment date.
 The method for processing a portfolio as described in claim 4, wherein the step (2) and the foregoing step (3) further comprise the step of: rejecting each of the preselected securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition.
 The method for processing a portfolio as described in claim 6, wherein the value condition comprises: the average return on equity is greater than a first predetermined value; the first predetermined value is greater than or equal to zero.
 The method for processing a portfolio as described in claim 4 or 6, wherein the step (5) and the foregoing step (6) include the following steps: the expected annualized rate of return is not in accordance with the reward condition The preselected securities are eliminated; the reward condition includes: the expected annualized return rate is greater than a second preset value; the second preset value is greater than or equal to zero.
 The method for assessing the investment value of a security as described in claim 4 or 6, wherein the step (3) of the evaluation factor is generated by: the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year after the base year is The shareholder's equity per share for the base year is multiplied by the average return on equity; the first estimated year is the first year from the base year that does not overlap with the base year; the expectation for the first forecast year The cash dividend per share is the earnings per share for the base year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year plus the first estimate The expected earnings per share for the year is deducted from the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year. Multiplied by the average return on equity; the second estimated year is the second year from the base year that does not overlap with the first forecast year; The expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; and the expected shareholder equity per share for the second estimated year is The estimated shareholder's equity per share for the estimated year plus the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year minus the expected cash dividend per share for the second forecast year.
 A method for constructing an index for constructing an index having a predetermined number of securities, comprising: (1) selecting a plurality of securities, the number of selected securities being greater than or equal to the predetermined number; and (2) setting an evaluation date to collect each of the securities. Securities information, including: financial accounting information, priceearnings ratio, and transaction price; the financial accounting information includes shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends for the historical year before the assessment date; (3) based on each of the securities The financial accounting data respectively generates a value factor, which includes: average return on equity, average cash dividend allotment rate, shareholder equity per share in the base year, and earnings per share for the base year; For the quarterly period, the four quarters mentioned are the four consecutive quarters from which the financial accounting information can be obtained from the evaluation date; (4) according to the value factors of each of the securities, each of the securities is generated in the reference year. The evaluation factor for the estimated annual period, wherein the evaluation factor includes the expected earnings per share for the complex forecast year, and the expected earnings per share. Dividends, and expected shareholder's equity per share; (5) based on the expected earnings per share and the principaltoearnings ratio of each of the securities, respectively, the final estimated share price of the complex forecast year; (6) based on the transaction price of each of the securities, The last estimated stock price, expected cash dividend per share, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year to output the expected annualized return rate for each of the securities; and (7) based on the expected annualized return rate from large to small Selecting each of the securities as component securities of the index, the number of securities selected being equal to the predetermined number; (8) Using the expected annualized return rate of each of the constituent securities to weight each of the constituent securities to allocate weights to each of the constituent securities, and the expected annualized return rate is positively correlated with the configured weight.
 For the method of constructing an index as described in claim 10, the following steps are further included between the foregoing step (3) and the foregoing step (4): the securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition are excluded.
 The method for constructing an index as described in claim 11, wherein the value condition comprises the average return on equity is greater than a predetermined value; the preset value is greater than or equal to zero.
 The method of constructing an index as described in claim 10 or 11, wherein each of the constituent securities is configured with a weight not exceeding a predetermined value.
 The method for constructing an index as described in claim 10 or 11, wherein the weighting in the foregoing step (8) comprises: using a standard deviation of the return on equity of each of the constituent securities in the plural historical year The weight of each of the constituent securities is corrected; the standard deviation is inversely related to the configured weight.
 A computer program product for storing securities information processing programs for evaluating the investment value of securities, after loading and executing the program via a computer, performing the following steps: setting an evaluation date based on the plural history of the securities before the evaluation date Financial accounting information for the year to generate a value factor; the value factor includes the average return on equity, the average cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year; Formed in four quarters, the four quarters mentioned are the four consecutive quarters from which the financial accounting information can be obtained from the evaluation date; based on the value factor, the evaluation factor of the complex forecast year after the base year is generated. The evaluation factors include the expected earnings per share, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder's equity per share; the lowest estimated share price based on the principaltoearnings ratio of the securities and the expected earnings per share; and based on the transaction price of the securities, expected per Cash dividends, final estimate The stock price, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year, to output the expected annualized return rate of the security.
 The computer program product as described in claim 15 wherein the financial accounting information includes shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends.
 The computer program product of claim 15, wherein in the foregoing step of generating an evaluation factor, the evaluation factor is generated by: estimating an expected earnings per share for the first estimated year after the base year is the benchmark Annual expected shareholder's equity per share multiplied by the average return on equity; the first estimated year is the first year from the base year that does not overlap with the base year; the expectation for the first forecast year The cash dividend per share is the earnings per share for the base year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year is the shareholder's equity per share for the base year plus the first estimate The expected earnings per share for the year is deducted from the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the expected shareholder's equity per share for the first estimated year. Multiplied by the average return on equity; the second estimated year is the second year from the base year that does not overlap with the first forecast year; the second forecast year The cash dividend per share is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; and the expected shareholder's equity per share for the second estimated year is the expected share per share for the first estimate. Shareholders' equity plus the expected earnings per share for the second forecast year minus the expected cash dividend per share for the second forecast year.
 A computer program product for storing a securities information processing program for constructing or revising a portfolio, loading the program via a computer and performing the following steps: (1) selecting a plurality of preselected securities, setting an evaluation date, and collecting each of the preselected securities The securities information, which includes the financial accounting information, the P/E ratio and the transaction price before the assessment date; (2) each of the financial accounting materials of the preselected securities The value factor of the preselected securities, which includes the average return on equity, the average cash dividend allotment rate, the shareholder's equity per share for the base year, and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters. The four quarters mentioned are the four consecutive quarters from which the financial accounting information can be obtained from the evaluation date; (3) the evaluation of the multiple estimated years after the base year based on the value factors of each of the preselected securities Factor, the evaluation factor includes expected earnings per share, expected cash dividend per share, and expected shareholder equity per share; (4) generating a final estimated share price based on the P/E ratio of each preselected security and the expected earnings per share; 5) according to the transaction price of each preselected securities, the expected cash dividend per share, the last estimated stock price, and the total number of years of the complex forecast year, respectively outputting the expected annualized return rate of each of the securities; and (6) The expected annualized return rate of each of the preselected securities is each of the preselected securities allocation weights to construct or modify the investment portfolio; wherein the expected annualized return rate and the configured weight are Related.
 For example, in the computer program product described in claim 18, between the foregoing step (2) and the foregoing step (3), the following steps are further included: the preselected securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition are excluded. The value condition includes: the average return on equity is greater than zero.
 In the computer program product described in claim 18 or 19, the following steps are further included between the foregoing step (5) and the foregoing step (6): the preselected securities whose expected rate of return is not in accordance with the remuneration condition are excluded. The reward condition includes: the expected annualized rate of return is greater than zero.
 The computer program product according to claim 18 or 19, wherein in the foregoing step (3), the evaluation factor is generated by: the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year after the base year is The expected annual shareholder equity for the base year is multiplied by the average return on equity; the first estimated year is the first year from the base year that does not overlap with the base year; The expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year is the earnings per share for the base year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; the expected shareholder equity for the first estimated year is the shareholder per share for the base year The equity plus the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year minus the expected cash dividend per share for the first estimated year; the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year after the base year is the first Estimated annual shareholder's equity per share multiplied by the average return on equity; the second estimated year is the second year from the base year that does not overlap with the first forecast year; Estimated annual cash dividend per share is the expected earnings per share for the first estimated year multiplied by the average cash dividend allotment rate; and the expected annual shareholder equity for the second estimated year is the first estimated year The expected shareholder's equity per share plus the expected earnings per share for the second estimated year minus the expected cash dividend per share for the second estimated year.
 A computer program product for storing a securities information processing program for constructing an index having a predetermined number of securities. After loading and executing the program via a computer, the following steps are performed: (1) selecting a plurality of securities, the number of selected securities is greater than Or equal to the predetermined number; (2) setting an evaluation date, collecting securities information of each of the securities, the securities information including: financial accounting materials, a priceearning ratio, and a transaction price; the financial accounting materials include: plural history before the evaluation date Annual shareholders' equity, net profit, and cash dividends; (3) generating value factors based on the financial accounting data of the selected securities, including: average return on equity, average cash dividend allotment rate, and per share in the base year Shareholders' equity and the earnings per share for the base year; the base year consists of four quarters, which are four consecutive quarters from which the financial accounting information can be obtained from the assessment date; 4) based on the value factors of each of the securities, respectively, an evaluation factor for each of the securities in the multiple estimated years after the base year, The assessment factor Including the expected earnings per share for the expected year, the expected cash dividend per share, and the expected shareholder's equity per share; (5) based on the expected earnings per share and the pricetoearnings ratio of each of the securities, respectively, the most The estimated stock price at the end; (6) based on the transaction price of each of the securities, the last estimated stock price, the expected cash dividend per share, and the total number of years in the complex forecast year, to output the expected annualized return rate of each of the securities. (7) selecting each of the securities as component securities of the index according to the expected annualized rate of return, the number of selected securities equals the predetermined number; and (8) utilizing the expected annualized returns of each of the constituent securities Rate to weight each of the constituent securities to allocate weights to each of the constituent securities, and the expected annualized return rate is positively correlated with the configured weight.
 For example, in the computer program product described in claim 22, between the foregoing step (3) and the foregoing step (4), the following steps are further included: the securities whose value factors do not meet the value condition are excluded; the value condition Including: The average return on equity is greater than zero.
 The computer program product of claim 22 or 23, wherein the weighting of the foregoing step (8) comprises: correcting each of the component securities by a standard deviation of the return on equity of the securities in the plural historical year. The weight of the component security; the standard deviation is inversely related to the configured weight.
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