RU2753899C1 - Method for predicting the risk of alcoholization of the population of local territories - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, in particular to social psychology. In male and female respondents of 20-30 years of age, representatives of the indigenous population of the studied territory, the threshold of thermal sensitivity is determined and correlated with the severity of indicators of social tension in the region. Depending on the obtained combination of values of the threshold of thermal sensitivity and indicators of social tension in the population of the studied territory, it is determined: moderate, pronounced risk or no risk of developing alcoholization.

EFFECT: method makes it possible to determine the degree of risk of alcoholization by evaluating the complex manifestation of the level of general nonspecific reactivity of the body in representatives of the indigenous population of the studied territory, as well as the total severity of indicators of social tension in the region.

1 cl, 2 dwg, 2 tbl, 2 ex

Description

The invention relates to psychology, and more specifically to social psychology. There are various methods for predicting the risk of alcoholization in the population of local areas. Some of them are based on the analysis of the genotype of residents of local territories [1, 2], others - on the identification of the presence and severity of alcoholic traditions in society [3], the third - on the basis of the level of violent mortality among the population [4], the fourth - on a comprehensive assessment of psychosomatic predictors of the development of alcohol dependence among members of the population without any health disorders [5]. At the same time, none of them provides for a comprehensive accounting of endogenous and exogenous factors that create preconditions for the development of alcoholization in the population of local territories.

The prototype is a method for identifying a person's predisposition to alcohol consumption through a comprehensive assessment of psychophysiological, psychosomatic and psychosocial prerequisites for alcoholization [6]. However, despite the complex nature of the assessment of risk factors for the development of alcoholism, this method does not take into account the indicators of social tension in society, reflecting the propensity of the population to addictions.

The aim of the claimed invention is to predict the risk of alcoholization in the population of local territories on the basis of an integrated approach that combines an assessment of the psychophysiological status of representatives of the indigenous population of the study area and an assessment of formal statistical indicators of social tension in society.

This goal is achieved by the fact that at the first stage, among 100 representatives (50 men and 50 women) of the indigenous population of the study area of 20-30 years of age, who have a permanent residence, students or permanently working, whose professional activity should not be interchangeable and not should be associated with regular departures from the region of residence, having the opportunity to freely choose their social environment, not exposed to extreme physical, chemical and biological exogenous influences, eating well, leading a healthy lifestyle, regularly undergoing medical examinations, staying in a stable functional and psycho-emotional state, to determine the psychophysiological potential, the level of general nonspecific reactivity of the body (UONRO) is assessed, by non-contact detection of the thermal sensitivity threshold (PTH), by automatically measuring the time of the onset of reflex elimination of the hand from light This beam has a stable temperature effect of the threshold force. To ensure the standard of exposure, an algesimeter of the "Ugo Basile" type (Italy) is used. The level of the general reactivity of the organism is determined at the moment the hand is removed from the irritating temperature effect. In this case, the PTC is fixed, which is automatically recorded on the algesimeter indicator in seconds. A high level of general reactivity of the body is distinguished by people who have minimum values of PTC in the range of 0.5 - 15.4 s, average - in the range of 15.5 - 30.4 s. And a low level - individuals characterized by the maximum values of the PTF in the range of 30.5 - 45.5 s. At the second stage of the study, an interval series is constructed and the frequency distribution of the PFC for a sample population of subjects is carried out, followed by the determination of the relative number of observations within the boundaries of high, medium and low UONRO. At the third stage of work, on the basis of official documents of Rosstat, the General Prosecutor's Office and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, a data block is formed that reflects mortality from homicide (per 1000 population), mortality from suicide (per 100000 population), number of abortions (per 100 births), mortality from neoplasms (per 100,000 population) in the last reporting year. Then the degree of integral manifestation of the analyzed indicators is calculated, from 4 to 12 points in total, for three specified levels of social tension in society.

At the fourth stage of the study, a correlation is made between the value of the relative number of subjects characterized by high UONRO with the sum of points of social tension in society. The subsequent comparison of the results obtained with the control values of the analyzed indicators contained in the working matrix provides a prediction of the risk of alcoholization in the population of the study area according to 9 possible combinations of the initial data.

1. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population of more than 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension less than 5 units, a moderately pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

2. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population of more than 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension from 5 to 8 units, a pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

3. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population of more than 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension of more than 8 units, a pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

4. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension less than 5 units, the absence of the risk of developing alcoholism in the population is determined.

5. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension from 5 to 8 units, a moderately pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

6. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension of more than 8 units, a pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

7. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population less than 50%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension less than 5 units, the absence of the risk of developing alcoholism in the population is determined.

8. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population less than 50%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension from 5 to 8 units, the absence of the risk of alcoholization in the population is determined.

9. With the values of the indicator of the relative number of respondents with a high UONRO in the general sample population less than 50%, in combination with the sum of scores of social tension of more than 8 units, a moderately pronounced risk of alcoholization of the population is determined.

Example 1

100 students of Volgograd State University, 18-23 years of age, who regularly consume alcohol, were identified as UONRO. It was revealed that among alcohol consumers 65% of people are characterized by high, 33% - medium and 2% - low UONRO. The distribution of students - alcohol consumers by standard UONRO groups (high, medium, low) is shown in Figure 1. The presented data indicate that individuals with a high UONRO are most susceptible to alcoholism, and those with a low UONRO are characterized by a minimal propensity to consume alcohol.

Example 2

On the basis of cartographic and statistical material from the National Atlas of Russia, model regions were identified, endowed with a relatively typical set of discretely expressed combinations of factors of the environment of human life, characteristic of the Russian Federation: Arkhangelsk Region, Republic of Karelia, Leningrad Region, Irkutsk Region, Primorsky Territory, Voronezh Region, Saratov region, Volgograd region, Rostov region, Krasnodar region, Republic of Adygea, Republic of Crimea, Astrakhan region. Using the official statistics of Rosstat, the General Prosecutor's Office and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation for the last reporting year, a block of indicators of social tension was formed for each selected region: the level of alcoholization of the population, total crime (per 100,000 population), serious crime (per 10,000 population), mortality from murders (per 1000 population), mortality from suicide (per 1000 population), mortality from neoplasms (per 100,000 population), number of abortions (per 100 births), divorce rate, quality of life index. The subsequent analysis of the relationships of the studied indicators, carried out by the Spearman rank correlation method, revealed a number of complex relationships of the indicators of social tension with the level of alcoholism in the population of the model regions (Figure 2). It was determined that such indicators of social tension of society as mortality from homicide, mortality from suicide, mortality from neoplasms, the number of abortions per 100 births, are characterized by statistically significant direct links with the level of alcoholism in the population of model regions of Russia.

Thus, the analysis of the aggregate manifestation of UONRO and the total severity of individual vectors of social tension in the indigenous population makes it possible to predict the presence and severity of the risk of developing alcoholism in local residents.

The use of this method in comparison with the prototype has a number of advantages:

1) comprehensive accounting of physiological and social risk factors for the development of alcoholization in the population of local territories;

2) the possibility of a qualitative typology and quantitative assessment of the risk of alcoholization in local residents;

3) algorithmization of the testing process, minimizing the subjectivity of assessing the risk of alcoholization in the population of local territories.

Bibliography

1. Marusin A.V., Stepanov V.A., Spiridonova M.G., Bokhan N.A., Mandel A.I., Kharkov V.N., Pels Ya.R., Puzyrev V.P. Polymorphism of genes of ethanol-metabolizing enzymes ADH1B, ADH7 and CYP2E1, relationship with the risk of alcoholism comorbid with tuberculosis in the Russian population of the West Siberian region // Medical Genetics. - 2006. - No. 7 (49). S. 51-56.

2. Brick LA, Keller MC, Knopik VS, McGeary JE, Palmer RHC. Shared additive genetic variation for alcohol dependence among subjects of African and European ancestry // Addiction Biology. - 2019. - Jan; No. 24 (1). P. 132-144. doi: 10.1111 / adb.12578.

3. Belyaeva TK, Pukhova AG, Bikmaeva A.B., Pukharev AS Ethnic aspects of drunkenness and alcoholism // International Journal of Applied and Fundamental Research. - 2017. - No. 7-2. - S. 236-238.

4. Sakharov A.V., Govorin N.V. Violent mortality and alcoholization of the population in the Trans-Baikal Territory // Far Eastern Medical Journal. - 2011. - No. 2. S. 97-99.

5. Zimina L.A., Azmuko N.A., Boeva A.V., Tarmaeva I.Yu., Pogorelova I.G. Assessment of the degree of risk and motives of alcoholization of the population. Certificate of registration of the computer program RU 2017619312, 08/22/2017. Application No. 2017616744 dated July 11, 2017.

6. Mulik A.B., Shatyr Yu.A., Mulik I.G., Nazarov N.O. A method for identifying a person's predisposition to alcohol consumption. Patent RU 2548520 C1, 20.04.2015. Bul. No. 11. Application No. 2013151525/14 dated 19.11.2013.

Claims (1)

A method for predicting the risk of alcoholization in the population of local territories, characterized in that 50 male and 50 female respondents aged 20-30, representatives of the indigenous population of the study area, who have a permanent place of residence, students or permanent workers, whose professional activity does not carry changeable nature and is not associated with regular departures from the region of residence, who have the opportunity to freely choose their social environment, who have not been exposed to extreme physical, chemical and biological exogenous influences, who eat well, lead a healthy lifestyle, regularly undergo medical examinations, stay in a stable functional and psychoemotional state, carry out non-contact detection of the thermal sensitivity threshold by automatically measuring the time of elimination of the hand from the light beam, which has a stable temperature effect of the threshold force, then in relation to the population living in the study area, assess the level of social tension, taking into account the mortality from homicide per 1000 population, mortality from suicide per 100000 population, the number of abortions per 100 births, mortality from neoplasms per 100000 population in the last reporting year, and according to Table 1, which contains on page 3 of the description, determine the sum of points for the given levels of social tension and at the threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the total sample population of more than 66%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension less than 5 units, determine moderately expressed the risk of developing alcoholism; with a threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the general sample population of more than 66%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension from 5 or more units, a pronounced risk of developing alcoholism is determined; at the threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the total sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of social tension points less than 5 units, the absence of the risk of alcoholism development is determined; with a threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the general sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension from 5 to 8 units, a moderately pronounced risk of alcoholism development is determined; with a threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the general sample population from 50 to 66%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension of more than 8 units, a pronounced risk of developing alcoholism is determined; with a threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the total sample population of less than 50%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension up to 8 units, the absence of the risk of developing alcoholism is determined; with a threshold of thermal sensitivity in the range of 0.5-15.4 s in the total sample population of less than 50%, in combination with the sum of points of social tension of more than 8 units, a moderately pronounced risk of alcoholism development is determined.

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