RU2737131C2 - Apparatus for estimating costs for manufacturing a complex engineering system based on changes in volume of an annual batch - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: computer equipment.SUBSTANCE: disclosed is a device for estimating costs for manufacturing a complex engineering system (CES) in conditions of incomplete information on planned appearance, comprising an input and storage module of source data (1) (and a source data memory unit (2) included therein), a unit for storing functional dependencies of the characteristics of the CES and a free member which characterizes the generation of the CES, (4), a unit for averaging the functional dependences of the characteristics of CES (5), a unit for approximating by the least squares of the values of the generations of CES (6), adder (7) and a unit for visualizing the calculated value of the costs for the production of CES (11), unit for calculating functional dependencies by method of least squares (MLS) for each generation of CES (3), unit for calculating production costs of CES (9), included in data input and forecast module of CES (8), wherein the device includes a unit for recalculating the costs for the manufacture of the CES depending on the volume of batch (10), wherein when inputting the development parameters of the main characteristics of the CES and the index (number) of the generation of the CES in the unit for calculating the cost of producing CES (9), the calculated value of the costs for the manufacture of the CES is generated, which is further supplied to unit for conversion of costs for production of CES depending on volume of lot (10); also to input unit for recalculation of costs for production of CES depending on volume of batch (10), volume of annual nominal batch and volume of annual current, as well as coefficient, characterizing optimal ratio of variables to total costs; then calculated value of total costs is supplied to input of visualization unit of design value of costs for production of CES (11).EFFECT: technical result is automation of the process of estimating costs for manufacturing a complex technical system in conditions of incomplete information on its planned appearance and changes in the volume of the annual batch.1 cl, 1 dwg, 1 tbl

Description

The technical field to which the invention relates.

The invention relates to digital computing, in particular to digital computing systems for determining the costs of manufacturing (creating) a complex technical system (STS) under conditions of incomplete information about its planned appearance and changes in the volume of the annual batch.

State of the art.

In the process of planning the production of an STS, the problem arises of estimating the costs of manufacturing its sample by years of release within the program period.

The use of the method of expert assessments and its modifications [1], provides for the possibility of establishing by the interviewed specialist the ratio of estimating the costs of manufacturing the CTS and its dependence on the size of the annual batch. Expert assessments are processed in various ways. With the help of certain transformations, an agreed opinion of experts is formed (scoring method). The specified methods, when assessing the costs of manufacturing CTS, are inherent in the errors of expert systems associated with the presence of the factor of "subjectivity".

There is a known approach to assessing the cost of manufacturing STS according to calculation items [2]. When implementing this method, the structure of the cost price is revealed and the share of each calculation item in the total cost price of the future serially produced product is predicted. Further, by some aggregated method (for example, specific indicators), for a new product that calculation item (for example, basic wages or costs of raw materials and materials) is calculated, the share of which is the highest in the cost structure. Costs depending on the batch in this case can be determined by the formula

where A is the calculated value of a specific cost item for a new product, rubles;

ϕ is the specific weight of the cost item in the calculation of the cost of a product of a certain class,%;

K is the coefficient of change in the size of the article when the volume of the batch changes.

This approach is effectively applicable at the stage of detailed design and manufacture of a prototype, as well as in the preparation and development of production, since it requires, first of all, the determination of material consumption according to working drawings and labor intensity according to the time norms recorded in technological maps, which at the time of development planning JTS may not yet be formed.

There are known systems [5-8] for determining the cost of research and development work when concluding government contracts for the creation of complex technical systems that do not solve the problem formulated by the authors of estimating the costs of manufacturing STS in conditions of incomplete information about the planned appearance of the system and when the volume changes production batch. To implement systems [5], [6], [8], a sufficient amount of technical and economic information is required, both about the object being created, and about the work and activities being carried out. A significant disadvantage of the invention [7] is the determination by an expert of the amount of costs both for the basic and for the newly developed version of the product.

The closest prototype of all the considered inventions is a device for estimating the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system in conditions of incomplete information about the planned shape [9], which does not solve the problem of assessing the costs of manufacturing an STS by years of release within the program period.

Estimation of costs for the production of a sample STS invention [9] is optimal, because is determined for the optimal ratio of fixed and variable costs achieved by the cooperation of CTC manufacturers as a result of optimizing their economic activities, and the nominal batch (practically average annual for the program period) and, naturally, less than the maximum one, which allows, if necessary, to implement "mobilization deployment".

This assessment can only be used to compare individual samples of different promising and existing CTS. But with a large error, estimates of the costs for the programmed period of production of one or another promising or existing CTC sample are given, which is really required when deciding to replace an existing one or choose a promising one.

Taking into account these and other problems, there is a need for the development of an automated device for estimating the costs of manufacturing an STS under conditions of incomplete information about the planned appearance and when the volume of the annual batch changes.

Disclosure of the essence of the invention

When planning (forecasting) the costs of manufacturing a CTS sample in the absence of information about real production costs, it is proposed to use information both on the optimal estimate of the costs of manufacturing an CTC in conditions of incomplete information about its planned appearance, and on the dependence of the constant component of costs on the variable component on the volume of the produced batch.

The invention can be used in the military and civil industries in the process of consideration by the Customer of tender documentation, to assess the feasibility of projects to create complex technical systems, when planning and implementing measures of state programs, to create high-quality and competitive STS and their components.

The technical result is the automation of the process of assessing the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system in conditions of incomplete information about its planned appearance and changes in the volume of the annual batch.

So, first, in the initial data memory unit (2), the input values of the characteristics of the CTS of each generation (X _i = {x _1i ; x _2i ; ..., x _ki )) and its cost (C _i ) are grouped by generations i (i is the index (number ) generation, k is the total number of the main characteristics of the STS).

Further, based on the information coming from the initial data memory unit (2), in the unit for calculating functional dependencies using the least squares method (LSM) for each generation of CTS (3), the dependence of costs on the main characteristics of the CTS and the number of its generation is formed and stored in the memory block functional dependences of the characteristics of the CTS and the free term characterizing the generation of CTS (4) in the form:

where a _{pok i} is the free term of the dependence characterizing the fixed costs of the creation / generation of CTS;

f _{mmx i} (x _1i , x _2i ;…, x _ki ) - functional dependence of costs on the main characteristics of the STS.

Based on the dependences f _{mmx i} (x _1i , x _2i ; ...; x _ki ) of CTS generations from 1 to m received from the memory block, the coefficients are averaged with the same parameters in the block averaging the functional dependences of the CTS characteristics (5), and the overall dependence f _{mmx is formed} (x ₁ , x ₂ ; ...; x _k ) coming further to the adder (7).

Based on the received memory block functional dependencies CTC characteristics and intercept, characterizing the generation of CTC (4) a _{dormancy i} STS generations values from 1 to m in the least-squares approximation block values CTC generations (6) is formed by a general relation f _dormancy (i), coming further to the adder.

The resulting dependencies in the adder (7) are combined into a formula for estimating the costs of manufacturing an ITS, which is fed to the block for calculating the costs of manufacturing an ITS (9).

When entering the values of the main characteristics of the STS X _m and the index (number) of the generation m of the STS in the block for calculating the costs of manufacturing the STS (9), the calculated value of the costs for manufacturing the STS C (m) is formed, which then goes to the block for recalculating the production costs CTC depending on the batch size (10). Also, the input of the unit for recalculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS, depending on the batch size (10), receives the values V - the volume of the annual nominal batch and v - the volume of the annual current batch, as well as the coefficient d _op , which characterizes the optimal ratio of the variable values to the total costs. Further, the calculated value of the total costs C _{about is} fed to the input of the visualization unit of the calculated value of the costs of manufacturing the CTS (11).

Let us consider in more detail the procedure for recalculating the costs of manufacturing an STS, depending on the batch size for block 10.

The total costs C _about - for the manufacture of a CTS sample are the sum of fixed C _n costs (directly taken into account in the costs of making a CTS sample: the cost of components, materials according to specifications and flow charts, etc.) and variable C _to costs (partially transferred costs associated with the economic and managerial activities of the cooperation of manufacturers of STS: part of the salary for management personnel, part of the cost of maintaining capital facilities, etc.).

Let us introduce the coefficient d, characterizing the achieved level of the current economic activity of the enterprise for the production of CTC samples, as the ratio of the values of the variables to the total costs (d = C _to / C _about ). Then the indicator d allows you to represent the variable costs Ck as:

The existing method for estimating the costs of manufacturing a sample of CTS [9] determines the estimate of the costs of manufacturing CTS as optimal C (m), ie at the optimal value of the indicator d _op, achieved by the cooperation of enterprises - manufacturers of CTC as a result of optimization of their economic activities, and a nominal batch (practically average annual for the program period).

The cost of manufacturing a CTC sample from the current annual batch C _about may differ significantly from its optimal estimate C (m) due to the difference between the volume V of the annual nominal batch and the volume v of the annual current batch due to the dependence of the variable component C _k on the value d. This dependence d (V, v ) in relation to the value for the optimal batch d _оn can be described by the expression:

►

►

A feature of f (V, v ) is that for v = V f (V, V) = 1. As a consequence, d (V, V) = d _on .

Based on the above, the costs of C _about (V, v ) for the production of one CTC sample from the current batch of v samples will be determined as:

The value of the indicator d _on can be determined either as the achieved value for the nominal batch of the previous generation of CTCs currently in production, or it can be set taking into account the requirements for the perceptual production of CTCs.

Provided that, in the program period, the annual costs of economic and management activities of the cooperation of CTC manufacturing enterprises are independent of the size of the annual batch, the total annual variable costs are evenly distributed over all its samples. For this case, the function f (V, v ) has the form f ( V, v ) = V / v .

Thus, the manufacture costs CTC conversion unit depending on the batch size (10) made overall cost value calculation _of C as:

Brief description of the drawings.

The device for estimating the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system, taking into account the change in the volume of the annual batch contains (Fig. 1):

- a module for input and storage of initial data (1), including a memory unit for initial data (2);

a block for calculating functional dependencies using the least squares method (OLS) for each generation of CTS (3);

memory block of functional dependences of the characteristics of the CTS and the free term characterizing the generation of CTS (4);

block for averaging the functional dependences of the characteristics of the STS (5);

block of approximation by least squares of values of CTS generations (6);

adder (7);

a module for inputting data and predicting the cost of an ITS (8), which includes a unit for calculating the costs of manufacturing an ITS (9) and a unit for recalculating the costs for manufacturing an ITS, depending on the batch size (10);

block for visualization of the estimated value of the cost of manufacturing STS (11).

Implementation of the invention

The initial data memory unit (2) receives input statistical information about the main characteristics of the CTS for each generation of the CTS and its cost. The block for calculating the costs of manufacturing CTS (9) receives input information about the main characteristics of CTS of the predicted generation. The unit for recalculating the costs of manufacturing CTCs, depending on the batch size (10), receives the cost of manufacturing CTCs of a specific generation from the unit for calculating the costs of manufacturing CTCs (9), the value of the optimal ratio of variable and fixed costs in the optimal batch as a requirement for the future production of CTCs , the volume of the annual nominal batch, the volume of the current annual batch.

The output of the system is the value of the costs for the production of CTS, which comes from the unit for recalculating the costs of the CTC, depending on the batch size (10), to the visualization unit of the estimated cost of manufacturing the CTC (11), depending on the volume of the batch.

The unit for recalculating the CTC costs depending on the batch size (10) the cost of manufacturing a CTC sample from a nominal batch to the cost of manufacturing it in the current batch, based on the dependence of the change in the composition of the first ratio of variable and fixed costs on the ratio of the annual volumes of the nominal and current batch ...

The principle of operation of the invention is best illustrated by an example.

In practice, based on the currently existing mobilization requirements and the achieved level of economic activity of the cooperation of CTS manufacturers, the optimal value of the d _on indicator is 0.3-0.4. During the period of production development for the first batch of CTC, the V / v ratio can be 5 or more. Then, for the specified method of forming variable costs as part of the costs of manufacturing the CTS, the current annual costs C _about , according to formula (5), can be 2.2-2.6 times higher than the costs C (m) for its manufacture in the optimal batch. And vice versa, during the period of full-scale production of CTC, with an increase in the batch volume twice the nominal, the cost of producing one sample decreases by 15-20%.

Table 1 presents estimates of the costs of manufacturing 260 CTC samples for a 7-year program period with different volumes of annual batches and constancy of annual variable costs of cooperation of CTC manufacturers.

The calculation of the total costs for the manufacture of CTS for the entire program period, determined on the basis of the optimal cost of the sample, is 10-14% less than the estimate of these costs when calculating them taking into account the size of annual batches.

For this reason, in order to reduce the forecast error in estimating the costs of producing promising CTS in the program period, it is necessary to take into account the differences between the volume V of the nominal batch and the volume v of the annual batch of the given CTC.

FIG. 1 shows a general scheme for the implementation of the device for estimating the costs of manufacturing the STS, taking into account the change in the volume of the annual batch.

The device contains a module for input and storage of initial data (1), including a memory unit for initial data (2); a block for calculating functional dependencies using the least squares method (OLS) for each generation of CTS (3); memory block of functional dependences of the characteristics of the CTS and the free member characterizing the generation of CTS (4); block for averaging the functional dependences of the characteristics of the STS (5); block of approximation by least squares of values of CTS generations (6); adder (7); a module for inputting data and predicting the cost of the CTC (8), which includes a block for calculating the costs of manufacturing CTC (9) and a block for recalculating CTC costs depending on the batch size (10); block for visualization of the estimated value of the cost of manufacturing STS (11).

The initial data memory unit (2) receives input statistical information about the main characteristics of the CTS for each of its generation and the cost of the system itself reduced to uniform conditions. The block for calculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS (9) receives input information about the main characteristics of the CTS of the predicted generation. The unit for recalculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS, depending on the batch size (10), receives the value of the costs for manufacturing the CTC, calculated in block (9), as well as the volume of the entire batch of manufactured products, the annual output and the coefficient value characterizing the ratio of variable costs to total costs. The output of the system is the value of the cost of manufacturing the CTS of the predicted generation, which comes from the unit for recalculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS, depending on the batch size (10), to the visualization unit of the estimated cost of manufacturing the CTS (11), taking into account the change in the volume of the annual batch.

The implementation of the proposed invention at the first stage is possible in the form of a hardware-software complex on a PC, and at the second stage as a stand-alone device.

The advantages of the proposed invention are:

the ability to estimate the costs of manufacturing an STS of a predicted generation without specifying its new (additional) characteristics, including under conditions of incomplete information about these characteristics;

the ability to take into account when calculating the cost, the change in the batch size depending on the conditions of the program period;

the use of easily programmable formulas, which leads to the automation of the process of estimating the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system and the elimination of the accumulation of errors in the processing of initial data;

constructive simplicity of the invention, minimal data set for its operation.

Used sources

1. Saati T. Decision making with dependencies and feedbacks: Analytical networks. Per. from English. - M .: Book house "LIBROKOM". 2009 .-- 360 p.

2. Requirements for the justification of the calculation of the cost of experimental design and research work signed by the head of the Department of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the pricing of military products on 4.08.2010.

3. Methodological recommendations on the formation of the initial price of a state contract when placing a state defense order by means of a tender, approved by the Chief of Armaments of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation on February 8, 2008.

4. ETC. Varlamova, N.A. Vasilieva, L.M. Neganova and others. Great economic encyclopedia. - M .: Eksmo, 2008 .-- 816 p.

5. Protasov A.A. (RU), etc. An automated system for determining the initial price of a contract for research and development work in the implementation of a state order. Utility model patent No. 1336389, IPC G06Q 50/26, 2013.

6. Protasov A.A. (RU), etc. An automated system for determining the cost of research or development work when concluding government contracts. Utility model patent No. 133639, IPC G06Q50 / 26, 2013.

7. Burba A.A. (RU), etc. A device for technical and economic assessment of the implementation of research and development work. Copyright certificate for invention No. 2470365, IPC G06Q 50/04, G06Q 10/06, 2011.

8. Brewer D.T. (US), etc. System for determining the cost of the project. Copyright certificate for invention No. 2259593, IPC G06N 7/06, 2000.

9. Gulyaev A.Yu. (RU), etc. A device for estimating the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system in conditions of incomplete information about the planned appearance. Copyright certificate for invention No. 2666232, IPC G06F 17/15, 2018.

Claims (5)

A device for estimating the costs of manufacturing a complex technical system (CTS) in conditions of incomplete information about the planned shape, containing a module for input and storage of initial data (1) (and a block of initial data memory (2) included in it), a memory block of functional dependencies of characteristics of CTS and the free term characterizing the generation of the CTS (4), the block for averaging the functional dependences of the characteristics of the CTS (5), the block of approximation by the least squares of the values of the CTS generations (6), the adder (7) and the block for visualizing the calculated value of the cost of manufacturing the CTS (11), the block calculation of functional dependencies by the method of least squares (OLS) for each generation of CTS (3), a block for calculating the costs of manufacturing CTS (9), which is included in the module for data entry and forecasting the cost of CTS (8), characterized in that it includes a block recalculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS depending on the batch size (10), while in the initial data memory block (2) the input values of the characteristics of the CTS of each i-th generation (X _i = (x _1i ; x _2i , ..., x _ki )) and its value (C _i ) are grouped by generation i (where i is the generation index (number), k is the total number of the main characteristics of the STS); Based on the information coming from the initial data memory unit (2), in the unit for calculating functional dependencies using the least squares method (LSM) for each generation of CTS (3), a dependence of costs on the main characteristics of the CTS and the number of its generation is formed and stored in the memory block of functional dependences of the characteristics of the CTS and the free term characterizing the generation of CTS, (4) in the form

where a _{pok i} is the free term of the dependence characterizing the fixed costs of creating the i generation of CTS, a f _{mmx i} (x _1i ; x _2i , ..., x _ki ) is the functional dependence of costs on the main characteristics of CTS; based on the dependencies f _{mmx i} (x _1i ; x _2i , ..., x _ki ) of CTS generations from 1 to m received from the memory block, the coefficients are averaged with the same parameters in the block averaging the functional dependences of the CTS characteristics (5) and the overall dependence f _{mmx is formed} (x _1i ; x _2i , ..., x _k ), which is fed further to the adder (7); based on the received memory block functional dependencies CTC characteristics and intercept, characterizing the generation of CTC, (4) values of a _{dormancy i} STS generations from 1 to m, in the approximation unit OLS values CTC generations (6) is formed by a general relation f _dormancy (i ), which goes further to the adder; the obtained dependencies in the adder (7) are combined into the formula for estimating the costs of manufacturing the CTS, which is fed to the block for calculating the costs of manufacturing the CTS (9)

when entering the values of the main characteristics of the STS X _m and the index (number) of the generation m of the STS in the block for calculating the costs of manufacturing the STS (9), the calculated value of the costs for the production of the STS C (m) is formed, which then goes to the unit for recalculating the production costs STS depending on the batch size (10); also at the input of the unit for recalculating the costs of manufacturing CTS, depending on the batch size (10), the values V - the volume of the annual nominal batch and v - the volume of the annual current batch, as well as the coefficient d _оn , characterizing the optimal ratio of the values of the variables to the total costs; further, the calculated value of the total costs C _{about is} fed to the input of the visualization unit of the calculated value of the costs of manufacturing the CTS (11).

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