RU2661070C1 - Method for predicting the development of arterial thrombosis in patients suffering with nonspecific aortoarteritis - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine and can be used to predict arterial thrombosis in a patient with nonspecific aortoarteritis. Identify the patient's predictors: smoking, age over 44 years, arterial hypertension, the defeat of more than 3 arteries, confirmed instrumentally. Evaluate the predictors in scores. Calculate the values of the discriminant function (d) according to the claimed formula. If the value of d>0 – the risk of developing the disease is minimal. If the value of d<0 – the risk of developing the disease is high.

EFFECT: method makes it possible to carry out a prognosis of arterial thrombosis in a patient with nonspecific aortoarteritis, prevent vascular accidents and improve the quality of life of patients by evaluating the complex of the most significant predictors.

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Description

The invention relates to medicine, in particular to measurements for diagnosis, in particular the determination and registration of the state of blood vessels of organs and tissues of the human body to make forecasts of the development of the disease, is intended for use in rheumatology.

A known method for predicting the risk of prothrombotic changes in adolescents with essential arterial hypertension, in which the risk factors for the development of prothrombotic changes in adolescents with essential arterial hypertension are determined, namely: C677T polymorphism of the 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene; A66G polymorphism of the methionine synthase reductase gene; level of average daily diastolic blood pressure; level of median systolic blood pressure; daytime hypertension index of systolic blood pressure; an indicator of a burdened thrombotic genealogical history; an indicator of thrombosis in the family in relatives at an early age. Based on the assessment of the totality of the identified risk factors, they conclude either about a favorable prognosis and a low probability of developing prothrombotic changes, or about an unfavorable prognosis and a high probability of developing prothrombotic changes (Patent No. 2514887 RU. Publish. May 10, 2014).

A known method for predicting the risk of developing EAG in young men with hemocoagulation disorders, which consists in determining risk factors for the development of EAG in young men with hemocoagulation disorders, calculated by the formulas:

F1 = -0.65-0.53 × X1 + 0.21 × X2 + 0.81 × X3 + 0.45 × X4 + 0.52 × X5-0.63 × X6-0.87 × X7 + 0 , 36 × X8-0.21 × X9-0.88 × X10,

F2 = -2.74 + l, 27 × X1-0.69 × X2-0.54 × X3-0.83 × X4-0.38 × X5 + 0.44 × X6 + 0.92 × X7-0 , 58 × X8 + 0.95 × X9 + 0.62 × X10,

where X1 is the level of fibrinogen in the blood, g / l;

X2 - level of soluble fibrin-monomer complexes in the blood, mg / dl;

X3 - level of high density lipoproteins in the blood, mmol / l;

X4 - complicated pregnancy, where 1 - pregnancy proceeded without complications, 0 - pregnancy proceeded with complications;

X5 - late gestosis, where 1 is not marked during pregnancy, 0 is noted during pregnancy;

X6 - indicator of hypertension in the family, where 1 - the family has relatives suffering from hypertension, 0 - the family has no relatives suffering from hypertension;

X7 is the indicator of thrombosis in the family of relatives, where 1 - the family has relatives who have had thrombosis; 0 - there are no relatives in the family who have had thrombosis;

X8 - overweight, where 1 is, 0 is not;

X9 - type of ejection from the left ventricle, where 1 is normokinetic, 2 is hyperkinetic, 3 is hypokinetic;

X10 - the type of filling of the left ventricle, where 1 is normofunctional, 2 is hyperfunctional, 3 is rigid; however, if F1> F2, a favorable prognosis is made and the likelihood of developing EAG is considered low, and if F2> F1, an unfavorable prognosis is made and the likelihood of developing EAG is considered high (Patent No. 2550722 RU. Publish. May 10, 2015).

According to world literature, predictors of arterial thrombosis in patients with nonspecific aortoarteritis are: metabolic syndrome, low and high body weight, anemia, and the presence of lupus anticoagulant.

However, the aforementioned predictors do not affect the development of arterial thrombosis.

More than 80 predictors of the development of arterial thrombosis in patients with nonspecific aortoarteritis were examined empirically and the following predictors were revealed by discriminant analysis: age older than 44 years, arterial hypertension, smoking, and involvement of more than 3 arteries in the process before the development of arterial thrombosis.

The predictors of arterial thrombosis presented were previously unknown in the medical community, specifically regarding nonspecific aortoarteritis.

The study of the prior art, regarding the claimed subject matter, did not reveal sources of information that are close analogues of the claimed solution.

The objective of the present invention is the ability to identify the degree of risk of non-specific aortoarteritis based on predictors.

The result is the determination of criteria for assessing the degree of risk of the disease, prevention of vascular accidents and improving the quality of life of patients through timely treatment and preventive measures.

The problem is solved in that a method for predicting the development of arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis includes identifying predictors in patients: smoking (x1), age over 44 years (x2), arterial hypertension (x3), damage to more than 3 arteries confirmed by instrumental (x4), then predictors are evaluated in points: if they are, they are rated as “1 point”, if not, “On points”, and then the values of the discriminant function (d) are calculated using a mathematical expression in the form of an equation I: d = -4.918x ₁ -3.283x ₂ -5.283x ₃ -3.3007x ₄ + 6.603, and if the value d> 0 - the risk of developing the disease is minimal, if the value d <0 - the risk of developing the disease is high.

The present invention is illustrated by a detailed description, examples of its use, illustrative material in the form of tables, graphs, on which:

Table No. 1 - “Coefficients of the classification function. Fisher's linear discriminant functions ”;

Table 2 - “Classification Results”;

FIG. 1 - the graph "Sensitivity / Specificity" is built relative to the mathematical expression. On the graph, measurements are carried out along the abscissa and ordinates in percent. Sensitivity and specificity are obtained by plotting the ROC curve. The sensitivity for detecting arterial thrombosis is 71.4%. The specificity of detecting arterial thrombosis is 88.2%;

Table 3 - “The relationship between predictors of arterial thrombosis in patients with Takayasu arteritis (this is a synonym for nonspecific aortoarteritis) with discriminant function coefficients and scores;

FIG. 2 is a graph of the construction of the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) dependence of the sum of scores for each patient.

The method is as follows.

Abbreviation used in the description of the method.

HELL - blood pressure;

ROC - receiver operating characteristic;

MTR - cardiovascular complications;

ECG - electrocardiography;

ECHO KG - echocardiography;

FGDS - fibrogastroduodenoscopy;

UZDG - ultrasound dopplerography;

ACT - aspartate aminotransferase;

ALT - alanine aminotransferase;

KDR - the final diastolic size;

DAC is the final systolic size.

When a patient contacts the clinic, they are initially interviewed and complaints are recorded. Then appoint additional consultations and biochemical examinations.

In the process, the method for predicting the development of arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis uses such means of prediction as discriminant analysis (Fig. 1) and the empirical method (Fig. 2). At the same time, a score was assigned to each of the 4 selected predictors by evaluating its significance for the forecast.

For discriminant analysis, the coefficients of the Fischer classification function are used and a mathematical expression is obtained in the form of an equation for determining classification values:

where d is the value of the discriminant function;

x1 - predictor of patient’s smoking before arterial thrombosis;

x2 - predictor - the patient is older than 44 years before the development of arterial thrombosis;

x3 - predictor - detection of arterial hypertension in a patient before the development of arterial thrombosis;

x4 - predictor - the patient's detection of damage to more than 3 arteries before the development of arterial thrombosis, confirmed by instrumental.

In addition, with the empirical method, a score is assigned to each of the 4 selected predictors using table No. 3 (Fig. 4), with a score of more than 1.5, the risk of developing the disease is assessed as quite high.

The following degrees of risk are highlighted:

If d> 0 - the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis is minimal.

If d <0 - the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis is high.

Along with a rigorous discriminant analysis algorithm, the empirical method is used - the assignment of points. At the same time, a score is assigned to each of the 4 selected predictors by evaluating its significance for the forecast (Fig. 5).

With a total score of more than 1.5 - the risk of developing arterial thrombosis is quite high.

To select the optimal threshold for the application of the prognostic decision, an ROC curve is built based on the sum of the scores for each patient. When analyzing this curve, the optimal threshold value of 1.5 points is chosen, while the sensitivity of the prognostic algorithm is 92%, and the specificity is 88%.

The proposed method was examined 96 patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis, 28 of which had as an outcome - the development of arterial thrombosis, confirmed by instrumental angiography.

This method provides the opportunity with high accuracy of 92%, using the point system and 88.2%, using a mathematical expression, to predict the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patients with Takayasu arteritis, and allows you to start timely preventive measures to reduce the incidence of arterial thrombosis and overall mortality.

The effectiveness of the method for predicting the development of arterial thrombosis in patients with Takayasu arteritis is demonstrated in the following examples.

Clinical example 1

Patient N. (24 years old), lives in a suburb of a regional city, is not married, denies pregnancy, is a student, smokes since she was 16 years old. She became acutely ill in November 2006, when she noted an increase in body temperature to 37.8, nausea and vomiting, and abdominal pain (mainly in the epigastric region). On examination: according to the results of fibrogastroscopy - peptic ulcer of the duodenum (duodenal ulcer 0.5 cm × 1 cm with white fibrin at the bottom); according to biochemical analysis of blood - bilirubin 5.3 μmol / L, glucose 5.3 mmol / L, ALT 21 e / L, ACT 17 e / L, total protein 76 g / L, urea 4.6 mmol / L, cholesterol total 4.7 mmol / l, creatinine 50 μmol / l; in the general analysis of blood: hemoglobin 110 g / l, red blood cells 3.95 10 × 12 / l, platelets 300 10 × 9 / l, white blood cells 4.2 10 × 9 / l, ESR 32 mm / h. She was treated at the place of residence by a general practitioner with a duodenal ulcer (proton pump inhibitors, antispasmodics, enzymes) with a small positive effect (reduction of nausea and vomiting). However, abdominal pain persisted. Since July 2007, general weakness, fatigue, dizziness, flickering of “flies” in front of my eyes have been disturbing. Abdominal pains persist. Blood pressure level 210/110 mm Hg Consulted by a physician, conclusion: arterial hypertension 3 tbsp. To clarify the genesis of arterial hypertension, she was sent for a consultation with a cardiologist. When examined by a cardiologist: hemoglobin 139 g / l, white blood cells 9.3 10 × 9 / l, red blood cells 3.4 10 × 12 / l, lymphocytes 41%, monocytes 6.6%, platelets 239 10 × 9 / l, ESR 27 mm /hour. According to the results of a general analysis of urine: protein 0.2 g / l, specific gravity of urine - 1020, pH 5.0, sugar, white blood cells, red blood cells were not found. According to the ultrasound of the renal arteries from 10.07. 2007: decrease in blood flow in the right and left renal arteries.

With suspicion of fibrodysplasia of the renal arteries, she was referred for consultation with angiosurgeons and then was hospitalized for examination in the department of vascular surgery of the regional city.

According to computed tomography of the abdominal cavity from 07/09/2007: stenosis of the celiac trunk 65-70%. Occlusion of the right renal artery. Secondarily shriveled kidney. Stenosis 75-80% of the left renal artery. According to aortography of the abdominal aorta of 08/10/2007: celiac trunk stenosis 65%. The right renal artery is not visualized. Left renal artery - stenosis of 80%.

The patient is referred for consultation to a rheumatologist. Conclusion of the rheumatologist: “Given the onset of the disease at the age of 20 years, high laboratory activity (ESR 27-32 mm / hour), the presence of symptoms of chronic abdominal ischemia and arterial hypertension, noise on the abdominal aorta, picture of stenosis of the celiac trunk, left renal artery, occlusion "right renal artery, confirmed by angiography, lack of dyslipidemia, the diagnosis of nonspecific aortoarteritis."

The assessment of predicting the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patient N was carried out using a combination according to discriminant analysis using a mathematical expression in the form of an equation (hereinafter the prognostic formula):

d = -4.918x ₁ -3.283x ₂ -5.283x ₃ -3.3007x ₄ + 6.603

d = -4.918 * 1-3.283 * 0-5.283 * 0-3.3007 * 1 + 6.603 = -1.622

d <0 - therefore, a high risk of developing arterial thrombosis.

According to such forecasting tools as discriminant analysis and the empirical method, patient N. scores 2.5 points (damage to more than 3 arteries / smoking before the development of the event / arterial hypertension), which predicts a high risk of developing arterial thrombosis.

Clinical example 2

Patient N, 35 years old, lives in a suburb of the regional city, turned to a neurologist at the clinic with complaints of dizziness, tinnitus, flies in front of her eyes, headaches. These symptoms worry the patient about 5 years. It was observed by a neurologist at the place of residence with a diagnosis of widespread spinal osteochondrosis. From the anamnesis it is known that she was born from the first normal pregnancy, full-term; developed according to age. I didn’t have childhood infections. An allergic history without features. At the age of twenty, myopia was detected. There were no pregnancies. Unmarried. Reception of hormones denied.

In a general blood test from March 2010 (when the patient was 33 years old) hemoglobin 135 g / l, red blood cells 4.33 10 × 12 / l, white blood cells 5.8 10 × 9 / l, lymphocytes 42%, monocytes 3.9% , platelets 398 10 × 9 / l, ESR 34 mm / h. In a March 2010 biochemical blood test: bilirubin 7.7 μmol / L, glucose 4.2 mmol / L, urea 4.32 mmol / L, total cholesterol 6.13 mmol / L, creatinine 67 μmol / L, potassium 4 , 16 mmol / L, sodium 146 mmol / L.

In April 2010, the patient was referred for a neurologist consultation. On examination, pain on palpation of the neck along the carotid arteries attracted attention. Conducted ultrasound MAG, ultrasound of the thyroid gland. According to the results of ultrasound of the thyroid gland: a node of the right lobe 5 × 3 mm. According to the MAG Doppler ultrasound scan: hemodynamically significant stenosis of the left subclavian artery (75%). The patient was referred for an angiosurgeon consultation. For further examination, she was hospitalized in the Department of Vascular Surgery.

In the general blood test dated 05/17/2010: leukocyte level 11.4 10 × 9 / L, red blood cells 4.64 10 × 12 / L, hemoglobin 117 g / L, platelets 261 10 × 9 / L, lymphocytes 35.8 %, monocytes 9.2%, neutrophils 52.8%, eosinophils 1.7%, ESR 22 mm / h. In the biochemical analysis of blood from 05.17. 2010: bilirubin 7.1 μmol / L, ALT 7 U / L, ACT 18 U / L, glucose 4.2 mmol / L, urea 2.5 mmol / L, total cholesterol 5.3 mmol / L, creatinine 89 μmol / L, iron 13 mmol / L. In the immunological blood test dated 05/17/2010: CRP 15 mg / l, rheumatoid factor 10 U / l, immunoglobulin A 3.75 g / l, immunoglobulin M 1.77 g / l, immunoglobulin G 17 g / l, CEC 185 units In the general analysis of urine dated 05/18/2010: urine density 1020, pH 5.5, protein 0.1 g / l, white blood cells, red blood cells were not detected. According to the results of aortography, occlusion of the left subclavian artery was detected in the first section with a length of 8 mm (85% stenosis in the first segment). Non-specific aortoarteritis is suspected, in connection with which the patient was consulted by a rheumatologist. The conclusion of the rheumatologist: the patient currently has no laboratory signs of an inflammatory process due to the absence of high fever and arthralgia (increased ESR up to 22 mm / h, leukocytosis 11.4 10 × 9 / l, hemoglobin 117 g / l, PSA 15 mg / l , CEC 185 units). Taking into account changes in the analyzes and hemodynamically significant stenosis of the left subclavian artery (80%), one gets the impression of activity of A. Recommended: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, prednisone 10 mg per day, antiplatelet agents. The operation was delayed due to the activity of the process.

After 3 months on the background of treatment in a general blood test from 08/23/2010: hemoglobin 120 g / l, red blood cells 4.3 10 × 12 / l, white blood cells 8.8 10 × 9 / l, lymphocytes 38%, monocytes 3.9% , platelets 250 10 × 9 / l, eosinophils 4.2%, ESR 11 mm / h. In the biochemical analysis of blood from 23.08. 2010: bilirubin 7.1 μmol / L, ALT 8 U / L, ACT 17 U / L, glucose 4.5 mmol / L, urea 3 mmol / L, total cholesterol 5.5 mmol / L, creatinine 90 μmol / l In an immunological blood test dated 08/23/2010: CRP 5 mg / L, rheumatoid factor 8 U / L. Conducted surgical treatment. Surgery protocol: a catheter was inserted into the thoracic aorta using a guide.

A guide was guided through the catheter into the descending aorta. Two stents are installed along the conductor in the proximal part of the left subclavian artery. Angioplasty in the walls of the balloon. In control angiography, the optimal angiographic result of stent implantation. The patient with recommendations (taking disaggregants, observation of a rheumatologist and a vascular surgeon) was discharged from the hospital.

In example 2, the assessment of predicting the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patient N according to the prognostic formula:

d = -4.918x ₁ -3.283x ₂ -5.283x ₃ -3.3007x ₄ + 6.603

d = -4.918 * 0-3.283 * 0-5.283 * 0-3.3007 * 1 + 6.603 = 3.296

d> 0 - therefore, the risk of developing arterial thrombosis is minimal

According to the empirical forecasting method, in this case, patient N scored 0 points, which also indicates a minimal risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patient N.

Clinical case No. 3

Patient X. From the anamnesis: nationality - Armenian. Born in the Sverdlovsk region. Born a full-term baby, has two children. In childhood, he suffered from recurrent tonsillitis about which, at the age of thirteen, tonsillectomy. Profession is a locksmith. Smokes since 22 years.

Since 2003, he complained about a rise in blood pressure to 200/100 mmHg. I did not regularly take antihypertensive therapy. Since 2005, there were pains in epigastrium, heartburn after eating. It was observed by a gastroenterologist, received conservative therapy with a weakly positive effect. In the period from 2005 to 2006, he began to notice increased pain in the epigastrium. In addition, there were complaints of pain when walking, weight loss of more than 30 kg. An examination according to ultrasound of the abdominal aorta and its branches revealed occlusion of the infrarenal aorta, as well as occlusion of the celiac trunk. 02/06/2007 hospitalized in the rheumatology department of the regional clinical hospital for examination and treatment. When examined in a general blood test: hemoglobin 132 g / l, red blood cells 4.06 10 × 12 / l, platelets 289 10 × 9 / l, white blood cells 10.6 10 × 9 / l, lymphocytes 37%, ESR 54 mm / h .; according to the biochemical analysis of blood - glucose 5.6 mmol / l, total protein 80 g / l, urea 5.6 mmol / l, total cholesterol 4.7 mmol / l, creatinine 87 μmol / l; according to immunological research: no LE cells were detected, CEC 60, immunoglobulin A 4.1 g / l, immunoglobulin M 0.52 g / l, immunoglobulin G 10.8 g / l, cryoglobulins, rheumatoid factor not found, complement titer 59 , 44 IU, level of C-reactive protein 48, ENA 0.41, ANCA 0.32, AKL 1.0. According to the hemostasiogram, there is a tendency to a decrease in the activity of factors of the turbine complex, moderate fibrinogenemia, and fibrinolysis.

ECG from 08.02.2007 - sinus bradycardia, 48 per minute, focal (scar) changes along the posterior wall of the left ventricle are not excluded.

ECHO KG from 02/09/2007: hypokinesis of the posterior wall of the left ventricle below the basal level, KDR 54.4 mm, KSR 38.8 mm, PV 55%.

FGDS from 09.02.07. Post ulcerated linear red scar of the middle third of the body of the stomach along the lesser curvature. Superficial gastritis.

Ultrasound of the abdominal aorta and its branches from 02/11/2007: There is occlusion of the aorta below the renal arteries, most likely occlusion of the celiac trunk, pronounced stenosing lesion AMS> 90%. Signs of stenosing lesion of the right renal artery> 50%.

Doppler ultrasound of the vessels of the neck and upper extremities of 01/21/2007: No hemodynamically significant blood flow disturbances of the brachiocephalic arteries and arteries of the upper extremities were detected.

USDG of vessels of n / extremities. 01/26/07. Occlusion of the arteries of the ilio-femoral segments on both sides.

The patient is referred for consultation with an angiosurgeon. Conclusion of the consultation: “In view of the activity of the process, angiography is not currently shown.” Based on the examination, the diagnosis was made: Nonspecific aortoarteritis with aortic occlusion below the renal arteries, celiac trunk occlusion, stenosing lesion of the right renal artery, activity 3.

Patient X was given therapy: plasmapheresis No. 3, prednisone 60 mg per day, chimes 75 mg per day, omeprazole 40 mg per day.

03/23/2007 the patient was discharged home. It is recommended to continue taking prednisolone 60 mg per day, followed by a consultation with a rheumatologist after 3 months.

05/04/2007, the patient noted a sharp increase in pain throughout the abdomen, loose stools up to 4 times a day with a raspberry shade (according to the patient), taking analgesics, antispasmodics - without effect. May 6, 2007, the patient turned to the emergency room of the GBUZ Sverdlovsk Regional Clinical Hospital No. 1 (Ekaterinburg). Upon admission, the condition is serious, clear consciousness. With auscultation of the lungs, vesicular breathing, respiratory rate of 19 per minute, wheezing is not heard. Rhythmic tones 99 per minute, emphasis of the second tone over the aorta, noises are not heard. The abdomen on palpation is soft, painful in all departments. Status localis: in the projection of the carotid arteries, the pulsation of the arteries is distinct, symmetrical at all levels, in the projection of the entire abdominal aorta, gross systolic murmur is determined, pulsation of the vessels of the lower extremities is reduced at all levels.

According to computed tomography of the abdominal organs, occlusion of the infrarenal aorta, common iliac arteries, occlusion of the celiac trunk, superior mesenteric artery, stenosis of the right renal artery were revealed.

When examined according to a general blood test: hemoglobin 125 g / l, red blood cells 4.59 10 × 12 / l, platelets 280 10 × 9 / l, white blood cells 32 10 × 9 / l, lymphocytes 37%, ESR 60 mm / h. ; according to the biochemical analysis of blood - glucose 5.1 mmol / L, ACT 57 U / L, ALT 18 U / L, total protein 78 g / L, urea 7.1 mmol / L, total cholesterol 4.7 mmol / L, creatinine 65 μmol / l; according to echocardiography, hypokinesis of the posterior wall of the left ventricle was revealed, 52% of CRC, 40.2 mm of CSF, 41% of PV. Upon admission and dynamics was observed by surgeons, diagnostic laparoscopy was performed repeatedly, according to which no data were obtained for mesenteric thrombosis, but signs of ischemic enterocolitis were determined. On 08.05.2007, a consultation of specialists was held, at which a decision was made on conservative tactics of patient management with dynamic monitoring of specialized specialists. Given the presence of severe ischemic colitis, performing a revascularizing operation on the visceral branches of the aorta is contraindicated in connection with the extremely high risk of total reperfusion injury to the intestine in the postoperative period. There were no spontaneous pains during treatment. 05/11/2007 the phenomenon of encephalopathy, decompensation of blood circulation, resuscitation without effect, biological death was recorded.

Assessing the prediction of the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patient X according to the prognostic formula:

d = -4.918x ₁ -3.283x ₂ -5.283x ₃ -3.3007x ₄ + 6.603

d = -4.918 * 1-3.283 * 1-5.283 * 1-3.3007 * 1 + 6.603 = -10.188

d <0 - hence a high risk of developing arterial thrombosis

According to the forecasting tools, both the discriminant analysis and the empirical method, patient X scored the maximum number of points - 3 points (damage to more than 3 arteries / smoking before the onset of the event / arterial hypertension / age more than 44 years), which indicates a very high risk of developing arterial thrombosis.

When identifying medium and high risks, respectively, table 3 (Fig. 4), patients were recommended:

1) Diet

2) Quitting smoking

3) walking

4) Adequate correction of blood pressure

5) Prescription of antihypertensive drugs with angioprotective effects

6) Prescribing statins with pleotropic effects is possible.

7) Coagulation, thromboelastometry

8) Solving the issue of therapy with antiplatelet agents, angicoagulants.

The proposed invention is simple to use, can be used by practitioners - rheumatologists, both on an outpatient basis and in a hospital, to assess the risk of developing arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis.

Claims (1)

A method for predicting the development of arterial thrombosis in patients suffering from nonspecific aortoarteritis, including the detection of predictors in patients: smoking (x1), age over 44 years (x2), arterial hypertension (x3), damage to more than 3 arteries confirmed by instrumentation (x4), then evaluate predictors in points: if available, evaluate as “1 point”, if not, “0 points”, and then calculate the values of the discriminant function (d) using a mathematical expression in the form of the equation: d = -4.918x ₁ -3.283x ₂ - 5.283x ₃ -3.3007x ₄ + 6.603, and if value d> 0 - the risk of developing the disease is minimal, if value d <0 - the risk of developing the disease is high.

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