RU2495493C2 - Method of predicting mortality risk of population in area of occurrence and rising concentration of pollutants in atmospheric air - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: chemistry.

SUBSTANCE: average daily concentration of an i-th substance C_i is established in an investigated area (point) for one year; the average arithmetic value is determined from the monitoring data (contact indication and (or) remote probing) or from data obtained by simulating scattering of impurities in the atmosphere for one year according to recommendations and the obtained risk values are compared with WHO-recommended risk criteria.

EFFECT: high accuracy of determining concentration of pollutants in atmospheric air.

Description

The invention relates to ecology, in particular to the field of assessing the environmental risk of increased mortality in the zone of air pollution, environmental protection and public health.

Known methods for assessing the risk of public health when it comes into contact with pollutants, developed by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation under the guidance of the chief sanitary doctor Onishchenko GG, which is based on the concept of taking into account many factors of the effects of substances on the human body. [one].

The disadvantage of these methods is the low accuracy of determining and assessing risk and that such a technique can only be used by a specialist specially trained in its use.

The aim of the invention is to predict a decrease in mortality in the zone of occurrence and increase in concentrations of pollutants in the air.

This goal is achieved by setting the boundaries of the survey area, during the year in the area being assessed, they measure and examine the sources of existing and future pollution objects, measure the average daily concentration of the i-th substance C _i , determine the arithmetic average value from monitoring data, for example, contact indication, remote sounding or according to the data obtained on the basis of modeling the dispersion of impurities in the atmosphere for the year, in accordance with the recommendations of regulatory documents (for example, “General of the normative document ”OND - 86 according to the methodology of PK Prism using MPC _CCI - see GN 2.1.6.1338-03), and on the basis of hygienic standards for maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) of pollutants in the air, recommendations are developed to reduce the effects of industrial emissions to public health and the environment, compare the obtained risk indicators with risk criteria recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and determine the degree of risk of mortality in the area of origin and Stan concentrations of pollutants in the ambient air.

The method is implemented as follows. The region of the survey is determined to assess the risk of the effects of air pollution by pollutants in mortality rates in areas of chronic pollution (industrial zones, settlements, roads, mining and mineral processing areas, product pipelines). Examination of existing facilities, openings for the construction and reconstruction of enterprises - sources of emissions of pollutants in the section "Assessment of environmental impacts (EIA)" is carried out. The substantiation of technological solutions to reduce the hazardous effects of industrial emissions on public health is being developed. An environmental risk assessment of the increase in mortality in the air pollution zone is carried out, including a comparison of the obtained risk indicators with the risk criteria recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

and under the terms of the mechanism of the formula:

1) (C _{i -} MPC _i ) ≥1

2) MPC _i = (1 ÷ 20 MPC _i )

a technology is being developed for assessing the environmental risk of increasing mortality in the air pollution zone, including measuring over the course of the year the average daily concentration of the i-th substance C _i in the estimated zone (point), determining the arithmetic mean of hygiene standards according to monitoring data (contact indication and (or) remote sensing), or according to the data obtained on the basis of modeling the dispersion of impurities in the atmosphere for the year according to the recommendations of for example the "All-Union Normative Document" (OND - 86, according to the method PC Prism using MPC _CCI - see GN 2.1.6.1338-03), determine the maximum permissible concentration (MPC) of pollutants in the atmospheric air of populated areas, compare the obtained risk indicators with risk criteria recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and according to the formula:

$$R=\mathrm{one}\cdot {10}^{-6}\cdot e^{K_i\left(\frac{C_i-PD{\mathrm{TO}}_i}{PD{\mathrm{TO}}_i}\right)}$$

Where

R - inhaled non-carcinogenic risk of chronic toxic effect of the i-th substance (number of victims);

C _i — daily average concentration of the i-th substance during the year, mg / m ³ ;

MPC _i - average daily maximum permissible concentration of the i-th substance, mg / m ³ ;

e - an exponent simulating the increase in the biological effect of the i-th substance with an increase in its concentration;

K _i is the coefficient of the accumulating effect of the i-th substance on the human body;

1 · 10 ^-6 - the initial coordinate of the reference acceptable risk of biological effects of the i-th substance, death / year,

determine the degree of risk of mortality in the zone of occurrence and increase in concentrations of pollutants in the air.

Tasks to be solved:

1) Risk assessment of the effects of air pollution by pollutants in the mortality rate in chronic pollution zones (industrial zones, settlements, roads, mining and processing of minerals, sections of pipelines).

2) Examination of projects for the construction of new and reconstruction of existing enterprises - sources of emissions of pollutants in the section "Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)".

3) Development and justification of management decisions to reduce the hazardous effects of industrial emissions on public health in a given region.

Expected results are achieved:

1) The use of the invention in assessing the impact of emissions on public health

2) In an environmental audit

3) In environmental impact assessment.

Claims (1)

A method for predicting the risk of mortality in the zone of occurrence and increase in concentrations of pollutants in the atmospheric air, which consists in taking into account the factors of the effects of substances on the human body, characterized in that they establish the boundaries of the survey area, measure and evaluate current and future sources in the area being evaluated objects of pollution, measure the average daily concentration of the i-th substance C _i , determine the arithmetic mean value according to monitoring data, for example, contact indications, remote sensing, or according to data obtained on the basis of modeling the dispersion of impurities in the atmosphere for a year, in accordance with the recommendations of regulatory documents (for example, OND - 86) and based on hygienic standards for maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) of pollutants in atmospheric air, they develop recommendations on reduce the impact of industrial emissions on human health and the environment, compare the obtained risk indicators with risk criteria recommended by the World Organization health care (WHO) and determine the degree of risk of mortality in the zone of occurrence and increase in concentrations of pollutants in the air according to the formula
$$R=\mathrm{one}\cdot {10}^{-6}\cdot e^{K_i\left(\frac{C_i-PD{\mathrm{TO}}_i}{PD{\mathrm{TO}}_i}\right)}$$

where R is the inhaled non-carcinogenic risk of chronic toxic effect of the i-th substance (number of victims);
C _i — daily average concentration of the i-th substance during the year, mg / m ³ ;
MPC _i - average daily maximum permissible concentration of the i-th substance, mg / m ³ ;
e is an exponent simulating the increase in the biological effect of the i-th substance with an increase in its concentration;
K _i is the coefficient of the accumulating effect of the i-th substance on the human body;
1 · 10 ^-6 - the initial coordinate of the reference acceptable risk of biological effects of the i-th substance, death / year.