RU2231090C1 - Method of radio wave prediction of earthquake and facility for its realization - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: geophysics.

SUBSTANCE: invention is intended for forecast of crust earthquakes and location of regions of seismic-ionospheric interactions in seismically active regions of the Earth in long-wave range of radio waves, for which earthquakes with amplitude M > 4 are distinctive. Network of radio routes covering seismically risky zone is formed. Radio routes crossing several times form grid of cells with cross-sections comparable with cross-sections for priority regions of zone. Coded burst of coherent radio pulses is periodically emitted by format specified per each of M points (M>1) on carrier in LW range of radio waves, phase of each burst in each radio pulse changes in accordance with prescribed code. Filtration of additive mixture of signals carried by surface and spatial waves is conducted in each of N reception points (N>2) along each route coordinated with corresponding format. Delays of signal of spatial wave relative to time of reception of signal of surface wave are measured many times. Anomalous delays which absolute deviations from reference value exceed specified value are recorded and identified. Time and duration of their manifestations are recorded. In addition disturbed routes for which alternation of regular and anomalous delays is characteristic are brought to light. If time intervals between more than three anomalous delays recorded in sequence in time on one or several disturbed radio routes crossing at least two other radio routes with anomalous delays shorten consistently judgment on possible region of earthquake can be made. Date of earthquake is then computed by formula

where

is data of m-th manifestation of anomalous delay, m being natural number, m>2, n =m-1, p=n-1,

For time interval

assemblage of spatially disturbed routes including at least one radio route with consistently diminished time interval between at least three anomalous delays and radio routes on which anomalous delays are recorded is isolated in addition. Maximal values of delay defines epicenter of supposed earthquake. Facility includes M>1 radio transmitters and N>2 radio receiving measuring and computation complexes integrated in network by communication channels and coupled to center of radio wave earthquake forecasting center.

EFFECT: increased accuracy and authenticity of prediction of point and time of earthquake.

2 cl, 4 dwg

Description

The invention relates to geophysics and is intended for prediction in the long-wave (LW) range of radio waves of crustal earthquakes [1] and for the location of areas of dynamic seismic-ionospheric interactions in the epicenter zones of seismically active regions of the Earth, which are characterized by earthquakes with magnitudes M> 4.

There is a method [2] for determining the location of an alleged earthquake, in particular a strong one, including a series of spaced-apart successive series of measurements of the electric and magnetic components of the electromagnetic field induced by low-frequency radiation of near-Earth plasma at heights of the upper atmosphere, and generating, in the presence of zones of stable observation of induced radiation, exceeding by more than 15-20 dB the level of the background of natural emissions, judgments about the existence of earthquake precursors, spatial polo the sources of which are identified with the supra-epicenter region of the alleged earthquake.

A device that implements this method contains low-frequency spectrum analyzers located on an artificial Earth satellite (AES), a standard telemetry storage device, and a recorder, a computer complex (VK), and data exchange channels between the AES and VC transceivers located in the satellite’s motion control center.

The accuracy of determining the coordinates for the epicenter of the alleged earthquake in a known manner often does not satisfy practical requirements due to the large duty cycle between the series of measurements of the components of the electromagnetic field and the low information content of the measurements. The method does not take into account, in addition, the experimentally duly confirmed mechanism of seismic ionospheric interaction.

There is also known [3] a method for predicting the time of an earthquake, in particular a strong one, including measuring in a seismically hazardous area at fixed power frequencies for infra-low-frequency fluctuations of currents in the upper layers of the earth's crust, determining the frequency spectral density of the power of the infra-low-frequency component of the current in the earth's crust, setting the value reference frequencies for the maximum change in the relative spectral power density, the development of judgments about the time of the earthquake the abnormal increase in the relative spectral power density of the infra-low-frequency component of the current in the earth's crust at reference frequencies.

The reliability of the forecast of the earthquake time when using this method does not satisfy the needs and requirements of practice due to the low sensitivity of the device that implements the method to seismic deformation processes in the earth's crust and the strong correlation of fluctuations of the surface currents and, therefore, the correlation of the results of power measurements for the corresponding current components with a variation in conductivity in the upper layers of the earth's crust, caused by technogenic, weather, seasonal and other natural phenomena, do not orrelirovannymi with seismic activity.

There is also known [4-6] a method of radio wave earthquake prediction, based on the use of data on variations in the field parameters of the signals of the super long wave (SDW) range (10-30 kHz) of radio waves in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide.

The essence of the method consists in periodically emitting at the point of space a monofrequency signal at the carrier frequency of the SDV range, receiving it at another point in space, repeatedly measuring the phase difference of the received signal and the signal of the reference frequency, calculating the excesses measured by the phase difference of a given value, recording them, and if a given time interval of the calculated excesses, the determination of the epicenter and the moment of the onset of the alleged earthquake along the radiation-reception path.

The rational implementation of this method involves the use of an SDV signal transmitter of the radio wave range and a radio receiving measuring and computing complex (RP-IVK) located on the earth's surface so that the radiation-reception path crosses a given seismically dangerous area.

In the case when the signal propagation path passes in the vicinity of the epicentral region and the signal is received in the zone closest to it, the error in determining the coordinates of the epicenter of the alleged earthquake is characterized by significant dispersion due to nonlinear effects of the interaction of the radiation field with the focal zone and does not satisfy practical needs. When receiving in the wave zone, the accuracy and reliability of determining the epicentral zone is due only to large-scale seismoionospheric interaction due to the weak sensitivity of the signal of the ADD range to local variations and migrations of local regions of the ionosphere above the epicentral region.

The reliability of determining the moment of the beginning of the alleged earthquake by this method also does not meet the requirements of practice, since the method does not reflect the characteristic patterns between the manifestations in a given time interval of phase excesses corresponding to the final stage of earthquake preparation and the act of the main seismic shock.

As a result, the device that implements this method does not provide the necessary sensitivity to the development of critical states in the lithosphere and surface atmosphere not only in the direction of the collinear radiation-reception path, but also in the space region in the direction normal to the path with linear dimensions exceeding the dimensions of the first zone Fresnel. Due to the low noise immunity, the device is characterized by sensitivity to radiation, which is caused by solar activity and the impact on the lower ionosphere of industrial explosions and other technological processes.

Closest to the proposed one is a method [7] of radio wave prediction of strong earthquakes, including the creation of a network of intersecting radiation-reception paths that overlap the seismically dangerous zone, periodic emission from at least three different frequency signals of the superluminal wavelength range from M points in the surface space, containing an integer phase cycles and synchronized in phase and time, receiving signals at N points in the surface space, M and N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, multiple measurement and reg their phases, detection and additional recording of the time of anomalous phase deviations for the received signals, the allocation of traces with an abnormal phase deviation having at least two intersections with other paths on which anomalous phase deviations of the signals are recorded, and in the presence of a sequential decrease in the time intervals between three and more abnormal phase deviations recorded on the selected paths, determining the area and time of the earthquake.

The device that implements this method contains M radio transmitters of signals of the SDV range and N radio receiving measuring and computing complexes (RP-IVK), M and N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, spaced in the far zone from the boundaries of the seismically dangerous area, network dedicated communication channels between each RP-IVK and the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction (TsRVPZ), containing serially connected receiver and computer complex (VC), which performs the functions of a device for processing prognostic information.

The TsRVPZ receiver-recorder contains a standard transmitting and receiving device (E-mail, fax modem) connected to a VK, with the help of which the prognostic parameters transmitted from each RP-IVK are received and registered on an appropriate medium, and transmission of administrative and other data to each point radiation signals and RP-IVK.

The computer center of the central control center, equipped with general and special application software, contains private application programs for predicting the location and time of earthquakes, an archive of anomalous phase deviations for different frequency signals along each of the M × N possible paths of their propagation, an archive of time and time intervals for the manifestation of anomalous phase deviations, archive of comparison of the time and time intervals of the manifestation of anomalous phase deviations with the coordinates of the epicenters and the time of earthquakes recorded according to by urgent reporting services, as well as a databank for hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal threshold values for each radio path.

The radio transmitter contains a cesium frequency standard connected in series, a format generator and a synthesizer of highly stable normalized, automatically controlled, multi-frequency signals that are fed to the corresponding input of the amplification unit, made in the form of input and pre-terminated amplifiers and a power amplifier connected to the corresponding input of the antenna device (AU ) emitting according to the established format sequentially in time different frequency signals.

RP-IVK contains [8, p.398-399] serially connected control units, an input high-frequency unit, a radio comparator in which a format is generated for the multi-frequency signals received at the input of the control unit, a frequency selector, the three outputs of which are connected to the corresponding multi-frequency inputs of the M-channel a switch whose clock input is connected to the corresponding output of the radio comparator. By the clock pulses of the radio comparator, a periodic, sequential in time switching of the corresponding different-frequency outputs of the frequency selector with the corresponding inputs of each of the M track meters (TI) of the prognostic parameters is carried out. The outputs of each TI are connected to the corresponding inputs of the M-channel threshold device connected to the corresponding input of the VC. The information output of the VK is connected to the corresponding input of a standard transceiver.

Each TI is made in the form of three parallel monofrequency phase meters (FM), the outputs of which serve as the corresponding outputs of the TI. A particular FM contains a phase-locked loop (PLL) device connected in series, the output of which forms a current estimate of the phase of the mono-frequency signal, and a meter for the value of this estimate, the output of which serves as one of the three TI outputs.

The PLL device contains a series-connected mixer, a low-pass filter connected to the input of a controlled quartz local oscillator, the output of which is connected to another input of the mixer, the output of the low-pass filter serves as the output of the device.

When testing the method, the corresponding standard transmitters of four transmitting stations of the domestic phase radio-navigation system (FRSN) Alpha and several (up to eight) global stations [8, p.390-399] FRNS Omega (8, p. USA), for receiving signals propagating along N paths - two prototypes of RP-IVK, a complex with the corresponding general and special software, a converter of a network voltage of a frequency of 50 Hz to a predetermined one. Each prototype — the PIK-2 receiving measuring complex [9] —includes a modification of the standard RSDN-85 FRS Alfa receiver transceiver, a control unit for the state of the transceiver functional elements, a computer complex, uninterruptible power supply and switching elements.

At the stage of “field” tests, prototypes placed one at a time in St. Petersburg and Moscow, respectively (VNII GOCHS EMERCOM of the Russian Federation), ensured reliable reception of signals along eight, four, different for each sample, routes. At the same time, in a single-time system, tracking, recording, and archiving of the prognostic parameters of signals — phase anomalies for the set of different-frequency signals received on each path — were carried out. A comparison of the time of the manifestation of phase anomalies on one track and (or) on the set of tracks covering a given seismically active region with an earthquake, the coordinates of the epicenter of which are recorded by the “urgent reporting service” (Moscow region) within a given region or in its vicinity, made it possible to establish practically important patterns for the manifestation of phase anomalies in time intervals that precede the moment of the main seismic shock.

According to the results of the route tests, the first stage of the radio wave system for short-term earthquake prediction (RVS KPZ) was created, deployed as part of a launch complex of two prototypes, and accepted (April 1998) by the Russian Emergencies Ministry.

The strength and effectiveness of the prototype method and device are due to the ability to extract excess information from the signals received in the receiving channels of the RP-IVK through the totality of the tracks crossing the same seismically active region. The use of this information was sufficient in the formation of a number of plausible earthquake forecasts for the southern and southeastern regions of Russia and the CIS.

In connection with the decommissioning of the FRS “Omega”, the forced shutdown of one transmitting station of the FRS “Alpha” and the inability to deploy additional transmitting and receiving points of the SDV range within the first phase of the RCS KPZ rational use of the potential of the prototype method based on the field of signals emitted only three FRS "Alpha" transmitters are currently difficult. The problem lies both in the insufficient informativeness of the received signals and, most importantly, in the significant error in the phase measurements due to the instability of the frequency of the quartz heterodyne in the channels of the monofrequency phase meters of each RP-IVK.

The random and time-unsteady drift of the frequency of the quartz local oscillator in the PLL circuit relative to its nominal value leads to a decrease in the local oscillator coherence time, to a narrowing of the capture band and, when the interference conditions along the path caused by man-caused and natural phenomena change, to the carrier frequency desynchronization of each mono-frequency signal reception with a local oscillator frequency. As a result of this, the error in the phase measurements exceeds several times the error in the measurements of ordinary signals characteristic of signal propagation paths, noise processes, and noise. At the same time, the performance characteristics are deteriorating for the procedures for estimating and measuring the true values of phase anomalies and, ultimately, the reliability and accuracy of the earthquake forecast are reduced.

The objective of the invention is to improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction of the place and time of mainly strong earthquakes, and the expected technical result should not be based on the deployment of additional points of transmission and reception of signals of the ADD range of radio waves, but on the effective use of existing technical capabilities in the DV range of radio waves.

When implementing the invention, the following technical result is achieved:

- prediction of the time of a (predominantly strong) earthquake in the interval from two to three weeks to a day and seven to ten hours with a reliability of no worse than 0.7-0.75 and a probability of false alarm within 0.2-0.25;

- forecast of the epicenter (mostly strong) of the earthquake with a deviation within half the maximum transverse size for the priority area of the earthquake zone.

According to claim 1, the expected technical result is achieved due to the fact that:

- in the method of radio wave earthquake prediction, including the creation of a network of intersecting radio paths radiation-reception, covering the seismically dangerous zone, the placement of radiation and reception points in the surface space outside the seismically dangerous zone, periodic radiation in a given range of radio waves from a single time signal from M points of a synchronized signal, reception signals at N points, M and N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, tracing with abnormal deviations of prognostic parameters crossing at least two other radios a race with abnormal deviations of the prognostic parameters, and with a successive decrease in the time intervals between anomalous deviations of the prognostic parameters, the determination of the time and region of the alleged earthquake, the points of emission and reception are spread in space, forming a network of cells with multiple intersections of the radio paths, the transverse dimensions of which are comparable with the transverse dimensions for priority areas of the earthquake zone.

The use of this feature provides not only the necessary conditions for an approximate forecast of the earthquake location with an error within half the maximum transverse size for the priority area of the earthquake zone, but also sufficient conditions for the subsequent optimization of the procedures for forecasting the epicenter and the time of the earthquake.

- The signal is emitted in the DV range of radio waves in the format specified for each of the M points in the form of an encoded packet of coherent radio pulses on a carrier frequency in the band 80-120 kHz, the phase of which in each radio pulse of the packet varies according to the prescribed code, a consistent with the appropriate format, filtering the additive mixture of signals carried by surface and spatial waves.

The surface wave in the DW range is weakly sensitive [8, p. 386-389; 10] to the geophysical parameters of the earth’s surface over which it spreads, and is not sensitive to changes in the ionosphere, including changes in the height of the layers of the ionosphere during sunrise and sunset. A spatial wave, on the other hand, is invariant to the geophysical parameters of the earth's crust and highly sensitive to variations in the concentration of electrons in the lower layers of the ionosphere E or D, especially to migration of spatial clusters of electrons, the sizes of which are comparable to the wavelength of the carrier frequency of the radiation signals. With changes in altitude and other variations of the lower layers of the ionosphere caused by natural and (or) technogenic phenomena, the length of the path for the signal of the spatial wave between the given points of its radiation and reception changes, and the length of the path for the signal of the surface wave remains unchanged. Consequently, a sign of the manifestation of an anomalous delay in the coded packet of coherent radio pulses carried by a spatial wave relative to the time of reception of an encoded packet of coherent radio pulses carried by a surface wave can serve as a highly informative carrier of precursor phenomena caused by seismic ionospheric interaction in the periods preceding a crust earthquake.

Due to the use of the indicated features at each path during reception, reliable detection-discrimination of signals emitted at different points, unambiguous selection of surface and spatial wave signals and, therefore, high sensitivity of the method to seismic ionospheric interaction are ensured.

- Repeatedly measure the delay of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of the surface wave signal, register the delays, the absolute deviations of which from the reference threshold value exceed the specified value, identify the anomalous delays, record the date, time and duration of their manifestation.

Registration of delays whose absolute deviations from the “reference” threshold in the statistical sense of the threshold exceed a predetermined value, the subsequent identification of anomalous delays, registration of the date, time and duration of their manifestation allows you to quickly adjust daily, weekly and seasonal threshold standards for each radio path and, therefore, ensures high confidence level in the development of judgments about precursor processes within the seismic hazard zone.

- Allocate radio paths perturbed by anomalous delays with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays recorded sequentially in time on one or more radio paths.

Using this feature allows us to develop plausible judgments about the earthquake area, at least in the vicinity of the allocated radio paths, and to generalize the dependence established in [7] for the date of the alleged earthquake in the form

T _d = t _m + (t _m -t _n ) ² / [(t _n -t _p ) - (t _m -t _n )],

where t _m is the registration date of the m-th anomalous delay, m is a positive integer, m> 2, t _n is the registration date of the n-th anomalous delay, n = m-1, t _p is the registration date of the p-th anomalous delay, p = n-1.

- For the time interval T = T _d -t _m between the dates of the alleged earthquake and the m-th manifestation of the anomalous delay, an additional set of spatially perturbed paths is selected, including selected radio paths with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays, and radio paths on which abnormal delays were recorded in time interval T. For the selected set of radio paths, the cross-correlation of abnormal delays is calculated.

Using this feature allows you to obtain information about operational anomalous delays manifested in the time interval T in a seismically dangerous area covered by an additionally allocated set of radio paths. Correlation of these delays with delays recorded on the set of spatially disturbed radio paths with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays provides the possibility of forming a reliable forecast with a potentially small error for the epicenter of a possible earthquake.

The practical implementation of the totality of features contained in claim 1 of the claims thus provides the necessary and sufficient conditions: for reliable detection-discrimination of radiation signals propagating along local and intersecting radio paths, unambiguous selection of signals carried by surface and spatial waves, and subsequent the use of anomalous delay of a spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of a surface wave signal as a highly informative medium I predictive phenomena due to seismoionospheric interaction in the periods preceding the crust earthquake. Manifestations of abnormal delays that are repeated over a given time interval, generally different for different paths, and the pattern of their manifestation on local and aggregate intersecting paths, obviously allows us to develop predictions of possible region and magnitude of the earthquake with estimated reliability and accuracy, as well as determine the date for the main seismic shock.

According to claim 2, the expected technical result is also achieved due to the fact that:

- in the device of the radio wave earthquake prediction containing M radio transmitters and N radio receiving measuring and computing complexes (RP-IVK), where M, N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, connected to the network by communication channels with the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction ( TsRVPZ), and each radio transmitter contains a standard frequency and a power amplifier connected to the input of the antenna device (AU), each RP-IVK contains a series-connected AU and an input high-frequency unit, M track meters (TI), cat outputs They are connected to the corresponding inputs of the M-channel threshold device, switched to a computer complex (VK). TsRVPZ contains a transmitter-receiver connected to a VK. Each radio transmitter further comprises a radiation formatter, the output of which is connected to the trigger input of the standard frequency reference. To the output of the standard frequency reference are connected sequentially connected standard sequences of video pulses, a shaper of coded packets of coherent video pulses, the other input of which is connected to another output of the radiation formatter, a modulator, the other input of which is connected to the output of the phase encoder of the carrier frequency connected to the standard frequency standard, and its other the input is connected to the output of the encoder packs of coherent video pulses, and the amplifier of coded packs of coherent radio pulses s connected to the corresponding input of the power amplifier. The antenna device is designed to emit signals of the DV range of radio waves.

The use of this feature provides a regulated input into the initial operating state of each transmitter and transmission in accordance with the established format of highly noise-resistant radiation signals, and also eliminates the possibility of simultaneously receiving informative signals from several transmitters at each receiving point.

- In the RP-IVK, an additional input bandpass filter in the range of 80-120 kHz is connected to the input high-frequency block made for the DV range of radio waves. M> 1 path meters are connected to a band-pass filter in parallel, each of which contains a surface wave channel and a spatial wave channel connected in parallel with the input of the TI, additionally introduced a reception trace formatter and a delay meter, the reception trace formatter connected to the second channel inputs. Each channel contains a filter and a low-pass filter, matched to a given reception format, connected in series to the corresponding input of the receive route formatter and delay meter, the output of which serves as an output of a TI.

The use of this feature provides high noise immunity of the RP-IVK, optimal filtering of the additive mixture of signals carried by the surface and spatial waves by the criterion of the signal-to-noise ratio, unambiguous selection of the components in each coded packet of coherent radio pulses, subsequent measurement with an estimated error of the delay of the spatial wave relative to the reception time surface wave signal and the formation of measurement results at the corresponding output of the track meter.

Using the combination of features contained in paragraph 2 of the claims, thus providing a technical result, expressed in the possibility of adapting the device to changes in the propagation conditions of the signals, increasing its sensitivity to the random nature of the anomalous delays of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of surface wave signals due to seismoionospheric interactions during the preparation of earthquakes, and, therefore, to increase the reliability and the accuracy of short-term prediction of crustal earthquakes.

The invention is illustrated graphic materials:

figure 1 shows a diagram of a device for radio wave earthquake prediction;

figure 2 is a diagram of a radio transmitter;

figure 3 is a diagram of the RP-CPI;

figure 4 is a block diagram of the algorithm of the device.

The method of the present invention is implemented as follows.

According to a single time signal, a signal is periodically emitted according to the established format from M> 1 points of surface space in the LW range of radio waves, reception is carried out at N> 2 points of space. Radiation and reception points are carried outside the limits of the seismically dangerous region, if possible in the wave zone from the boundaries of the region, forming a network of cells covering seismically active regions when the radio paths are repeatedly crossed. The transverse lengths of the cells are comparable with the transverse lengths for the priority areas of the seismically dangerous zone.

As a result of seismoionospheric interactions in the lower layers of the ionosphere above the seismically active region and its environs, spatially dynamic regions of increased ionization appear. The propagation conditions of the signals, which are most noticeable on radio routes at night, are changing. The integral effect of changing the reception conditions at a particular point is manifested in stochastic variations in the phase and group velocities of the received signal.

For informative identification of the laws of this kind of variation, the signals emit, if possible, in the direction of the meridians. Thus, daily intervals of signal reception at night are increased, which is characterized by a weakening of solar activity, and provide conditions for increasing the sensitivity and information content of reception signals to seismo-ionospheric interactions.

In order to exclude the simultaneous arrival of signals emitted from M points at any of the N points, and to minimize possible interference of signals carried by surface and spatial waves, the signal at different points is emitted sequentially in time in the form of coded packets of coherent radio pulses at a carrier frequency in band 80-120 kHz. The duty cycle and the number of radio pulses in a packet of a signal emitted at one point may differ from the duty cycle and the number of radio pulses in a packet of a signal emitted at another point. The phase in each radio pulse of the packet changes in accordance with the prescribed code, different for different points of radiation, and is mainly 0 or 180 degrees relative to the initial phase of the stable normalized carrier frequency of the radio pulse.

In an arbitrary RP-CPM for each of the M possible radio paths, a reception format corresponding to the format of radiation from a particular point in the surface space is set, and a reference threshold value adequate to the path is set. Filtering the additive mixture of signals carried by the surface and spatial waves in accordance with a given format is performed, the delay of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of the surface wave signal is repeatedly measured. Delays are recorded whose absolute deviations from the reference threshold value exceed a predetermined value, anomalous delays are identified, for example, by the criterion of maximum likelihood or maximum posterior probability [13, pp. 192-210], the date, time and duration of their manifestation are recorded. Simultaneously with the identification and registration of anomalous delays, the standard deviations of the current delays from the reference threshold value are specified in multiples of an hour and a day.

To identify the patterns of manifestation of anomalous delays and the formation of earthquake forecasts, a two-dimensional orthogonal coordinate system corresponding to each trace is used, the abscissa and ordinate of which are the current time and the values of the time intervals in days between two consecutively recorded delays on the track.

The origin of the coordinates is the date of the first manifestation of an anomalous delay recorded after the transition of the path from the usual background state, adequate to the conditions of receiving the additive mixture of signals in the absence of seismic ionospheric interactions, into unsteady - disturbed by the seismic ionospheric interaction - state. The second manifestation of the anomalous delay, recorded when the trace was transferred from the stationary state to the corresponding second non-stationary state, is displayed in the coordinate system as a point whose abscissa is the date of this manifestation, and the ordinate is the time interval between the second and first manifestations. The transition of the seismically active trace from the normal state to the third unsteady state is indicated by the second point, the abscissa of which is the date of the third manifestation of the anomalous delay, and the ordinate is the time interval between the third and second abnormal delays. If the ordinate of the second point is less than the ordinate of the first point, then the possible location of the earthquake source is predicted in the vicinity of the route, and the earthquake date T _{d is} calculated according to the above formula, where m> 2.

The subsequent transition of the perturbed path from the normal to the perturbed state is displayed in the coordinate system by the third point, the abscissa of which is the date the path passes to the new perturbed state, and the ordinate is the time interval between the last and the previous manifestation of the anomalous delay. If the display ordinate of this point is less than the ordinate of the previous point, then the earthquake date T _{d is} specified according to the specified formula, in which m> 3, and the time interval T from the date t _{m of the} manifestation of the last anomalous delay before the earthquake begins is determined according to the relation T = T _d -t _m .

If in the same time interval, including the time moment t _m , a path disturbed by three or more anomalous delays with a sequential decrease in the gaps between them intersects at least two other paths that have at least one anomalous delay registered, then the focal region earthquakes are determined in the vicinity of the intersection points of disturbed paths.

For the time interval T, a set of spatially perturbed traces is additionally distinguished, including at least one trace with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays, and the traces on which the anomalous delays are recorded, for the selected set, the cross-correlation of the anomalous delays is calculated using the maximum values which specify the epicenter of the alleged earthquake.

The device for implementing the method (FIG. 1) contains M> 1 radio transmitters 1 LW range of radio waves and N> 2 RP-IVK 2, where M and N are natural numbers connected to the network by dedicated communication channels 3 with the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction 4, containing standard transmitting and receiving device 5 (E-mail, fax-modem), the input-output of which serves as the corresponding input-output of TsRVPZ 4, connected to the computer complex 6.

It is advisable to use a compatible personal computer - IBM PC [11], equipped with related local devices and software, as a VC in the central heating and cooling center. The operational (RAM) and permanent (BIOS) memory of a computer can be limited to up to 512 MB and up to 5 GB, respectively, and the clock frequency can be limited to one GHz.

The radio transmitter (Figure 2) contains a series-connected standardized frequency reference 7, the trigger input of which is connected to the output of the radiation formatter 10, a sequence of video pulses 8, a coded burst generator of coherent video pulses 9, the other input of which is connected to another output of the radiation formatter 10, modulator 11, the other input of which is connected to the output of the encoder phase 12 of the carrier frequency connected to the output of the standard frequency reference 7, and its other input is connected to the output of the encoder x packs of coherent video pulses 9, an amplifier of an encoded pack of coherent radio pulses 13, a power amplifier 14 and an antenna device 15 LW radio waves.

The standardized standard frequency 7, as well as the standard video sequence of pulses 8, the radio transmitter can be made on the basis of the precision oscillator ICL8038 [12, p.142-147], which is a monolithic and integrated circuit (IC) that provides high-precision generation of sinusoidal, rectangular and pulsed oscillations with a minimum of external components in the range from 0.001 Hz to 300 kHz.

The generator of coded bursts of coherent video pulses 9 is rationally synthesized as a three- or five-element code (13, p. 346-355] of Barker in the form of a sequential shifting register [14, p. 192-194] on D- or JR-triggers. this should contain one or two binary addition schemes, respectively.As an element base for the manufacture of the former 9, widespread microcircuits 7475, 7493, 7492 can be used [14, pp. 152-154, 176-180] and their domestic counterparts.

In the manufacture of radiation formatter 10, which performs the functions of starting the radio transmitter and setting the shaper 9 to follow the encoded burst of coherent video pulses, monolithic ICs NE555, NE556, and SE556 can be used as an element base.

To build the modulator 11 it is natural to use the broadband IC ICL8013, which is [12, p. 190] a four-quadrant analog multiplier, the output signal of which is proportional to the algebraic product of the signal supplied to its one input from the output of the encoder pack of coherent video pulses 9, to the signal that is supplied from the carrier phase encoder 12 to its other input. As a phase 12 encoder, a phase inverter made on the basis of an elementary transistor circuit with a single transmission coefficient can be used.

The amplifier encoded packs of coherent radio pulses 12 rationally based on the use of high-precision IC INA102 with a variable gain in the range of 10-100.

As a power amplifier 14 and antenna device 15 of the radio transmitter (Figure 2), it is advisable to use the same device transmitting stations of the pulse-phase radio navigation system (RNS) "Laurent-S" [8, p. 386-387] or its analogue - domestic RNS "The Seagull".

Each radio receiving measuring and computing complex (Fig. 3) contains a series-connected antenna device 16, an input high-frequency unit 17, made for the LW range of radio waves, a bandpass filter (PF) 18 in the range of 80-120 kHz, to which M> 1 paths are connected in parallel meters (TI) 19, each of which contains a channel of a surface wave 20 and a channel of a spatial wave 21 connected in parallel to its input, as well as an additionally entered trace reception formatter 22 and a delay meter 23. Moreover, the trace ph Mator 22 is connected to the second inputs of channels 20 and 21, and each channel contains a filter 24 and a low-pass filter 25 connected to the corresponding input of the trace formatter 22 and delay meter 23. The output of the delay meter 23, which serves as the output of TI 19, is connected through the corresponding input-output of the M-channel threshold device 26 is switched to the computing complex 27.

As a series-connected antenna device 16, the input high-frequency unit 17 and the PF 18 RP-IVK (Figure 3), it is rational to use the antenna unit, notch filter and high-pass bandpass filter included in the receiver of the pulse-phase RNS “Laurent-S” [ 8, p. 387-388]. The filter 24 and the low-pass filter 25, which are part of the channel of the surface wave 20 and the channel of the spatial wave 21, consistent with the reception format, can be executed on the basis of IC ICL8013 [12, p. 190] and IS INA105 [12, p. 61], respectively.

The execution in TI 19 of the reception formatter 22 can be implemented on microcircuits 7475, 7492, 7493, IS NE555, NE556, SE556 and trigger and logic circuits such as I, OR, I-NOT, etc. widely used in digital technology. Their use is also rational and for the second inputs in channels 20 and 21. As a delay meter 23, you can use the well-known [15, p. 350-352] high-precision device I-2-23 (24) with a digital output, the measurement of time intervals in which is based on the pulse-counting method of direct counting.

The threshold device (PU) 26 is a combination of a sequential M-bit shift register with a binary g-bit, g = 7, ..., 11, a subtracting counter (BC) [14, p. 218-223] and a digital comparator containing a binary adder-subtractor [14, p.246-248] in the appropriate combination with operational amplifiers, trigger and logic elements AND-NOT. Through the g-bit output of the aircraft, which serves as one output of the control unit, and the binary output of the digital comparator, which serves as the other output of the control unit, broadcasts from each TI to VK 27, respectively, of current and anomalous measurement results. The execution of the threshold device can be carried out on IC types 74147, 7483, 7492, 7493, DC-7 (7A) and ED-11 [14, p. 168-174, 192-194, 225-266, 381-382].

The use of a modern IBM PC as a VK 27 in RP-IVK, the main parameters of which (RAM, BIOS, clock speed, etc.) are comparable with similar parameters of the IBM PC, which is part of the central control unit 4, seems to be a rational technical solution.

The operation algorithm of the device (Figure 1), the block diagram of the operation of which is shown in Figure 4, involves the following steps.

1. In the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction device (Figure 1) on an electronic map of a seismically dangerous region in accordance with the restrictive part and claim 1 of the claims show the boundaries for priority areas, the location of the points of emission and reception, as well as a set of M × N radio paths indicating for each route priority features. For each of M> 1 radio transmitters (FIG. 2), the radiation path format for the coded burst of coherent radio pulses (CCGC) is specified, which is consistent with the reception format of the corresponding trace meter (TI) in each RP-CPI (FIG. 3). The duty cycle of the local radio pulses in the packet is regulated so that when each of the N> 2 propagates possible radio paths, the radio pulses of the spatial wave signal do not interfere with the radio pulses of the surface wave signal. Also set the delay of the radiation signals, different for different radio transmitters, relative to the corresponding signal of a single time. An electronic card and M> 1 reception formats different for different TIs, as well as hourly, daily, and seasonal reference threshold values, are transmitted to each RP-IVK via communication channels.

2. Based on command signals, TsRVPZ 4 produces, at specified time intervals, a test series of radiation and reception sessions, according to the results of which the formats and periods of radiation of the signals are adjusted, as well as the established delay for the radiation signals relative to the signal of a single time, in each RP-CPI for each radio path, they are adjusted reception formats, as well as reference threshold values corresponding to the tracks.

3. In a particular radio transmitter (Figure 2) from one output of the radiation formatter 10 to the input of the standard frequency standard 7 comes with a set delay relative to the signal of a single time trigger signal. At the output of standard 7, a harmonic amplitude-normalized oscillation is generated with a frequency f in the band 80-120 kHz, which is fed to the input of the standard of the sequence of video pulses 8 and to one input of the encoder phase 12. In standard 8, the oscillation is converted into a common-mode sequence of normalized video pulses, which is fed to one input of the shaper of the encoded sequence of video pulses 9, to the other input of which a signal is supplied from the other output of the radiation formatter 10. As a result of the conversion of those received into the shaper 9 with its output signal to one input of the modulator 11 and the other input of phase encoder 12 is periodically supplied coded packet coherent video pulses. Since the signal from encoder 12 is supplied to another input of modulator 11, an encoded pack of coherent radio pulses (CPCGR) is periodically generated at the modulator output, the phase of the carrier frequency f in each radio pulse of which changes in accordance with the prescribed code. After amplification in amplitude and power, respectively, in amplifiers 13 and 14, the signal in the form of CPCGR is emitted by the antenna device 15.

4. The signal emitted by a particular of M> 1 possible radio transmitters enters through N> 2 radio paths to the antenna devices 16 of the corresponding RP-IVK radio paths (Figure 3). The signal arrives with a delay relative to the time of its radiation, which is different for different radio paths, in the form of an additive mixture of surface and spatial wave signals. After converting to AU 16 any of the N possible RP-CPIs, the signal is supplied to the input RF unit 17, in which it is preliminarily amplified and “cleaned” of various kinds of interference and distortion. From the output of the RF block, it enters PF 18, where RF interference is eliminated, and then to the inputs M> 1 of the track meters 19.

Since the propagation time of a spatial wave signal along the “radiation-reception” path always exceeds the propagation time of a surface wave signal, the additive mixture at the input of each TI, which serves as a signal input for the channel of the surface wave 20 and the channel of the spatial wave 21, is an alternating sequence of radio pulses. The odd radio pulses in the mixture correspond to CPCGR transmitted by a surface wave, and the even radio pulses in the sequence correspond to CPCGR transferred by a spatial wave.

In the initial state, the signal input in channel 20 is open, and in channel 21 is closed; in the subtracting counter (BC) of the threshold device 26, a binary number is set corresponding to a reference threshold value (FET), in the adder-subtractor of the digital comparator, a binary equivalent is set for a given amount of deviation relative to the FET.

If the reception format in a specific TI specified by the formatter 22 at the second inputs of channels 20 and 21 is adequate to the encoded packet of coherent radio pulses emitted by the radio transmitter, then the channels will execute sequentially “pulse-wise” coordinated filtering of the additive mixture received at the input of this TI.

Upon receipt of the first radio pulse in alternating sequence at the “open” input of channel 20, the first reference pulse is generated at the output of the filter 24 in the channel, which, through the low-pass filter 25, will be fed to the corresponding input of the receive formatter 22 and one input of the delay meter 23. From the output of the meter, those. from the output of a specific TI, to the input of a threshold device (PU) 26, switched through a distributor with a clock input of the aircraft, clock pulses will begin to arrive with a repetition period T _j . Simultaneously, according to the control signals received from the formatter 22 to the second inputs of channels 20 and 21, channel 20 will go into the closed state, and channel 21 will go into the open state.

Upon arrival in the open channel 21 of the second radio pulse contained in the sequence at the input of the TI, a second reference pulse is generated at the output of the matched channel filter 24, which will pass through the low-pass filter 25 to the corresponding input of the formatter 22 and another input of the delay meter 23. As a result, channels 20 and 21 will return to their original state. The supply of clock pulses to the aircraft input will be stopped, and at its outputs a binary mapping of the algebraic remainder is formed between the decremented - binary equivalent of the initial reference threshold value and the subtracted - the number of J clock pulses received in the aircraft. The binary sequence that is adequate to the absolute deviation from the FET is transmitted from the aircraft outputs through one output of the control unit to the file of “trace-by-pulse absolute deviations” created in VK 27 and to the input of the adder-subtractor in the digital comparator. At the end of the broadcast, the initial reference threshold value will be established in the aircraft.

The time interval between the moments of receipt of the first and second reference pulses at the corresponding inputs of the meter 23 is equal to the time interval between the beginning and end of the supply of clock pulses to the input of the aircraft and is T = JT _j fractions of a second. Formally, it is adequate to the absolute deviation modulus of the algebraic remainder from the FTE, physically - to the delay of the first radio pulse of the encoded packet of coherent radio pulses carried by the spatial wave, relative to the time of reception of the first radio pulse of the CPKGR carried by the surface wave. So, if the numerical analogue of the binary sequence at the input of the adder-subtracter exceeds the value specified in the digital comparator, then this sequence through another output of the control unit will go to a specific file of “trace pulse delays” created in the corresponding VC directory.

Pulse filtering of each subsequent pair, consisting of odd (third, fifth, etc.) and adjacent even (fourth, sixth, etc.) radio pulses contained in the additive mixture at the input of the TI, is performed according to the filtering algorithm of the first pair radio pulses.

Filtering begins with the arrival of an odd radio pulse in channel 20 of the TI and ends with the arrival of an even radio pulse in channel 21.

Each time, at the end of the cycle, a binary sequence adequate to the absolute deviation from the EPZ is supplied from the aircraft outputs through one output of the control unit 26 to the corresponding trace file of pulse measurements. Translation of the “absolute deviation” into the trace file of pulse-by-pulse delays is carried out only in cases when its module exceeds the value specified in the digital comparator.

The completion of the filtering of the last pair of radio pulses from the additive mixture of pulses received at the TI input, which is essentially the end of a single cycle, according to which a signal with known parameters is received at the radio path input, and a weakened copy of this signal and the next one with an unknown delay are received at the output of the trace, perhaps a distorted analogue of a weakened copy is accompanied by:

- assessment and registration of the mathematical expectation - mо and standard error - sko estimation for the absolute deviation (Ao) from the FTE of the delay of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of the surface wave signal,

- identification (according to the criterion of maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori probability density [13, p. 192-210]) of the anomalous delay (Az) of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of the surface wave signal, registration of mo and sko for the identified Az along with an estimate of its time mt manifestations.

Filtering the second and subsequent signals emitted by one of the M possible radio transmitters is similar to the situation considered when a signal in the form of an additive mixture of surface and spatial wave signals arrives at the input of a particular route meter 19 in any of the N possible RP-IVCs. In the corresponding channels of this TI, “pulse-by-wave” matched filtering of the additive mixture is performed sequentially in time.

The final result of filtering the radiation signals, as well as the result of filtering the first radiation signal received at the input of the AU and then to the trace meter, can contain registered mо and sko for the trace Ao from the FET, as well as mо and sko for the identified trace Az along with estimates of their time manifestations.

Adequate filtering of signals in other trace meters of a specific of the N possible RP-IVK, which are emitted by other radio transmitters from the M-set, as well as filtering in the corresponding TI of the signal that came from the output of a specific radio transmitter to the control unit of each of N - the set of RP- CPI.

The data of the final filtering parameters (mо, sko, development time) are recorded in VK 27 of each RP-CPI, in the corresponding trace files for the absolute deviations of the delays from the EPZ and the identified anomalous delays.

5. If at least one trace file VK 27 of a particular RP-CPI (Figure 3) contains Az for at least three consecutive time-by-cycle “signal” filtering, then mo, sko and the time of manifestation of Az along with the corresponding estimates for Ao transmit to the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction 4 devices (Figure 1). At the same time, they do not interrupt the filtering of subsequent signals in the additive mixture supplied to the input of the TI, and proceed to the implementation of the actions according to paragraph 6. Otherwise, a cyclic transition to the operations of item 4 is realized.

6. They also transmit the filter interruption time Az, i.e. the time of manifestation of only absolute deviations of delays from the EPZ, the time of renewal of registration of abnormal delays and the time intervals between them. Similar actions are performed when Az is manifested in other TIs of a specific RP-IVK and in the track meters of other RP-IVK.

7. Received via communication channels 3 to the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction 4 data is recorded in M × N - a set of track files VK 6 device (Figure 1). On the electronic map of a seismically dangerous region, radio paths indignant with anomalous delays are distinguished, on each of them time points and the duration of the anomalous delays are noted at a single time.

Transferring from TsRVPZ to RP-IVK, using transmitting and receiving devices, recommendations for changing the EPZ in the corresponding TI. In addition, other radio paths indignant at abnormal delays are highlighted on the electronic map.

8. At the Center for Hygiene Control, the hypothesis is checked that at least one radio path disturbed by anomalous delays intersects two other radio paths disturbed by Az against the alternative that there is no such intersection. If the second hypothesis is plausible, then a cyclic transition to step 4 is carried out, if the first hypothesis is valid, then go to the operations of paragraph 9.

9. At the central air traffic control center, radio paths are allocated with a successive decrease in the time intervals between at least three abnormal delays recorded in a given time interval. When selecting at least one radio path, which is characterized by a sequence of three or more anomalous delays with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between them, they proceed to the operations of claim 10. If the condition of successively reducing the time intervals between at least three abnormal delays is not fulfilled, then a cyclic transition to the operations according to claim 4 is performed.

10. Judge the possible area of the earthquake, calculate (according to claim 1 of the earthquake formula) its date T _d .

The forecast data on the date of a possible earthquake in the vicinity of the allocated radio paths are transmitted, without interrupting the filtering of signals along all the radio paths, to the corresponding services of the Ministry of Emergencies and the administration of the regions adjacent to the disturbed radio paths.

The interval T is calculated between the calculated date of the alleged earthquake T _d and the date t _{m of} registration of the last anomalous delay in time, T = T _d -t _m , T> 0.

11. For the time interval T = T _d -t _m between the dates of the alleged earthquake and the m-th manifestation of the anomalous delay, an additional set of spatially perturbed paths is selected, including selected radio paths with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays, and radio paths, on which abnormal delays are recorded in the time interval T. For the selected population, the mutual correlation of the anomalous delays is calculated, the maximum values of which determine the region and coordinates of the epicenter of the alleged earthquake.

The forecast data is transmitted, without interrupting filtering on all radio routes, to the corresponding services of the Ministry of Emergencies and the administration of the seismically dangerous and adjacent areas.

12. If the forecast turned out to be “false” after the time interval T, then a cyclic transition to the operations is carried out in accordance with clause 4 and the corresponding services are informed of the forecast withdrawal.

Using the RP-IVK prototype created in a single copy, in July-September 2002, experimental testing of private filtering procedures for signals emitted from the corresponding working zones of the domestic IFRNS “Chaika” and the Russian-American system “Laurent-S” was carried out. Coded bursts of coherent radio pulses emitted at a carrier frequency f = 100 kHz were used as carriers of possible earthquake precursors.

The reception of radiation signals was carried out (at the monitoring station of the radio navigation systems of the Far East Standard range) along four fan radio paths: Alexandrovsk - Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk - Khabarovsk, Tokatibuto - Khabarovsk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky - Khabarovsk. A clear separation of the packets of radio pulses carried by the surface and spatial waves was recorded along all the tracks. On the longest route (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky - Khabarovsk), during the periods of sunrise and sunset in the signals of a spatial wave, interference interactions appeared, caused, perhaps, by reflections from the lower layers of the ionosphere. In the period from 2002-07-12 to 2002-09-27 on the Aleksandrovsk-Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk-Khabarovsk and Tokatibuto-Khabarovsk radio routes crossing the seismically active zones, anomalous for these paths of delayed spatial wave signals relative to the time of reception of surface wave signals were recorded. In the same period and the following calendar decade, an urgent reporting service recorded in the working areas of the Chaika and Laurent-S radio navigation systems and their environs several crustal and deep-seated earthquakes with a magnitude of up to three to four points (on the Richter scale). Due to the lack of a network of intersecting radio paths, the creation of which is due to a financial problem, it was not possible, unfortunately, to unambiguously establish an unambiguous correlation of the recorded “unusual” delays with the earthquakes that occurred.

Nevertheless, the statistical pattern of registration of anomalous delays on fan radio paths, similar to a similar, but time-lagging pattern of seismic shocks in the vicinity of these paths, confirms the potential capabilities of the claimed method of earthquake prediction.

By the appropriate placement of ten to twelve measuring and computing complexes, the production of which on an accessible element base does not cause fundamental difficulties, and using the radio fields of the operating Chaika and Laurent-S RSs, it will be possible to cover the most seismically active regions of the Far Eastern District of Russia and other seismically active regions adjacent to Far Eastern District of States.

Currently, in the territories of Russia, China, Korea, Japan, the Mediterranean Sea, in the North and Northwest parts of the Pacific Ocean, in the eastern coast of the USA and in other seismically active regions of the Earth, there are more than 160 operating terrestrial RSs of the “Laurent-S” and “Classes” Gull". So the use of the signals of these stations will make it possible to carry out, in addition to the navigation functions, the functions of radio wave earthquake prediction.

Sources of information

1. Reznichenko Yu.V. Earthquake magnitude problems. Magnitude and energy classification of an earthquake - M .: Nauka, 1974, p. 98-103.

2. SU 1171737 A, G 01 V 9/00, 08/07/85.

3. SU 1349535 A1, G 01 V 3/121, 03/12/85.

4. Gufeld I.L., Marenko V.F., Ponomarev E.A., Yampolsky. The study of perturbations of the amplitudes and phases of the signals of FRS "Omega" on seismically active routes. On Sat Search for electromagnetic precursors of earthquakes - M.: IFZ AN SSSR, 1988, p. 149-169.

5. Gufeld I.L., Marenko V.F. Short-term time forecast of strong earthquakes using radio wave methods. DAN 1992, v. 323, No. 6, p. 1064-1067.

6. Marenko V.F. Investigation of the relationship of seismotectonic processes with perturbations of the lower ionosphere by the method of radio transmission on super-long waves. Abstract of dissertation Art. Ph.D. n Irkutsk, 1989.

7. RU 2037162 C, G 01 V 3/12, 02.09.94.

8. Laurila S. Electronic measurements and navigation. - M .: Nedra, 1981, 480 p.

9. Design documentation for PIK-2. - M .: AOOT “Interseismoprognoz”, 1988, 39 p.

10. Use of the radio spectrum. Translation from English, ed. M.S. Gurevich. - M.: Communication, 1969, p. 31-39, 41-43, 95-111.

11. Figurnov V.E. IBM PC for the user - M .: INFA-M, 1997.

12. Witson, J. 500 practical schemes for IP. Translation from English - M .: Mir, 1992, 376 p., Ill.

13. Van Tris, G., Theory of Detection, Estimation, and Modulation. Volume 3. Signal processing in radio and sonar and the reception of random Gaussian signals against interference. New York, 1971. Translation from English edited by prof. V.T. Goryainova. - M .: Soviet Radio, 1977, 664 p.

14. Tokheim R. Fundamentals of digital electronics. Translation from English. - M .: Mir, 1988, 392 p.

15. Measurements in Electronics: A Handbook. Edited by V.A. Kuznetsova. - M.: Energoizdat, 1987, 512 p., Ill.

Claims (2)

1. The method of radio wave earthquake prediction, including the creation of a network of intersecting radio paths that overlap the seismic zone, the placement of radiation and reception points in the surface space outside the seismic zone, periodic radiation in a given range of radio waves from a single time signal from M points of a synchronized signal, receiving signals in N points, M and N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, the allocation of radio paths with anomalous deviations of prognostic parameters crossing at least two other radio paths from the anoma deviations of the prognostic parameters, and with a successive decrease in the time intervals between the anomalous deviations of the prognostic parameters, the determination of the time and region of the alleged earthquake, characterized in that the points of radiation and reception are spread in space, forming a network of cells with repeated cross-sections of the radio paths, the transverse dimensions of which are comparable with the transverse dimensions for priority areas of the seismic hazard zone, the signal is emitted in the DV-range of radio waves according to the specified for each of M point format in the form of an encoded packet of coherent radio pulses on a carrier frequency in the band 80-120 kHz, the phase of which in each radio pulse of the packet changes according to the prescribed code, at each radio path, an additive mixture of signals transferred by surface and spatial waves is filtered according to the corresponding format, repeatedly measure the delay of the spatial wave signal relative to the time of reception of the surface wave signal, register the delays, the absolute deviations of which exceed the specified value from the reference threshold value, identify abnormal delays, record the date, time and duration of their occurrence, select radio paths disturbed by anomalous delays, and sequentially decrease the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays recorded sequentially in time on one or on several radio paths, judge about the possible area of the earthquake, and the date of the earthquake is calculated by the formula T _d = t _m + (t _m -t _n ) ² / [(t _n -t _p ) - (t _m -t _n )], where t _m is the registration date of the m-th anomalous delay, m is a positive integer, m>2; t _n is the registration date of the n-th anomalous delay, n = m-1; t _p - date of registration of the pth anomalous delay, p = n-1, for the time interval T = T _d -t _m between the dates of the alleged earthquake and the mth manifestation of the anomalous delay, additionally, a set of spatially perturbed paths is selected, including selected radio paths with a sequential decrease in the time intervals between at least three anomalous delays and radio paths on which anomalous delays are recorded in the time interval T; alleged earthquake. 2. A radio wave earthquake prediction device comprising M radio transmitters and N radio receiving measuring and computing complexes, where M, N are natural numbers, M> 1, N> 2, connected to the network by communication channels with a center of radio wave earthquake prediction, each radio transmitter containing a standard normalized frequency and a power amplifier connected to the input of the antenna device, each radio receiving measuring and computing complex contains a series-connected antenna device and an input high-frequency block, M track meters, the outputs of which are connected to the corresponding inputs of the M-channel threshold device, switched to the computer complex, the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction contains a receiving and transmitting device, the input-output of which serves as the corresponding input-output of the center of the radio wave earthquake prediction connected to the computing complex, characterized in that the radio transmitter further comprises a radiation formatter, the output of which is connected to the input of the start of the standard normal of a fixed frequency, the output of which is connected in series to a standard sequence of video pulses, a shaper of coded packets of coherent video pulses, another input of which is connected to another output of a radiation formatter, a modulator, another input of which is connected to the output of a carrier phase encoder connected to a standard frequency standard, and another its input is connected to the output of the shaper of coded bursts of coherent video pulses, and the amplifier of coded bursts of coherent radio pulses, p connected to the corresponding input of the power amplifier, the antenna device is designed to emit signals of the DV-range of the radio waves, in the radio-reception measuring and computing complex, an additional bandpass filter in the range of 80-120 kHz is connected to the input high-frequency block, made for the DV-range of the radio waves, to which connected in parallel M> 1 trace meters, each of which contains a surface wave channel and a spatial wave channel, parallel connected to the input of the trace an amplifier, and an additionally introduced trace reception formatter and delay meter, wherein the reception trace formatter is connected to the second channel inputs, each channel contains a filter and a low-pass filter, matched to the corresponding reception format, connected to the corresponding input of the reception trace formatter and delay meter, output which serves as the output of the track meter.

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