RU2020124981A

RU2020124981A - A method for determining the probability of death based on complaints in a patient with tuberculosis with HIV infection upon admission to a hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service of the Russian Federation

Info

Publication number: RU2020124981A
Application number: RU2020124981A
Authority: RU
Inventors: Владислав Семёнович Боровицкий; Максим Петрович Разин
Priority date: 2020-07-20
Filing date: 2020-07-20
Publication date: 2022-01-20
Also published as: RU2765744C2; RU2020124981A3

Claims

A method for determining the probability of death based on complaints in a tuberculosis patient with HIV infection upon admission to a hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service of the Russian Federation (FSIN), which consists in the use of clinical signs, including the presence of a combination of patient complaints, characterized in that the following clinical signs are used as clinical signs : complaints of pain in the chest (B), headaches (B ₁ ), loose stools (G), no cough with sputum (K), dry cough (K ₁ ), acute onset of the disease (N), shortness of breath (O) , chills (O1), sweating (P), weight loss (P1), lack of weakness (C), loss of appetite (A), fever (T) (body temperature above 37.0 0C), while with or without a sign of it a value of 1 or 0 is assigned, followed by calculation according to the formula, that is, each feature is given an experimentally established weight value in the form of a product of a constant coefficient by 1 or 0:

(0.23354) and in the presence of chest pain (B)=1, no=0;

(0.58072) and in the presence of headaches (B ₁ )=1, absence=0;

(1.38119) and in the presence of loose stools (W)=1, absence=0;

(-0.6816) and in the absence of cough with sputum (K)=1, presence=0;

(0.80112) and in the presence of dry cough (K ₁ )=1, absence=0;

(0.48203) and in the presence of an acute onset of the disease (H)=1, absence=0;

(1.12078) and in the presence of shortness of breath (O)=1, absence=0;

(-0.0187) and in the presence of chills (O ₁ )=1, absence=0;

(0.41297) and in the presence of sweating (P)=1, absence=0;

(0.97654) and in the presence of weight loss (P ₁ )=1, absence=0;

(-0.83206) and in the absence of weakness (C)=1, presence=0;

(-0.336) and in the presence of a decrease in appetite (A)=1, no=0;

(0.46756) and in the presence of fever (T)=1, absence=0;

and summed with a constant equal to (-4.14136) and then calculated using the formula:

where e is the base of the natural logarithm = 2.71828947,

z - the sum of the numerical values of each of the features:

z \u003d (-4.14136) + 0.23354x (B) + 0.58072x (B ₁ ) + 1.38119x (W) + (-0.6816) x (K) + 0.80112x (K ₁ ) + 0.48203x(H)+1.12078x(O)+(-0.0187)x(O ₁ )+0.41297x(P)+0.97654x(P ₁ )+(-0.83206)x(C )+(-0.336)x(A)+0.46756x(T),

where "B" - the presence of pain in the chest, "B ₁ " - the presence of headaches, "F" - the presence of loose stools, "K" - the absence of cough with sputum, "K ₁ " - the presence of a dry cough, "N" - the presence of an acute onset of the disease, "O" - the presence of shortness of breath, "O ₁ " - the presence of chills, "P" - the presence of sweating, "P ₁ " - the presence of weight loss, "C" - the absence of weakness, "A" - the presence of a decrease in appetite, "T" - the presence of fever,

based on the obtained probability value, a conclusion is made about the advisability of further monitoring and treatment of a tuberculosis patient with HIV infection upon admission to the hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service in the intensive care unit: with a probability value of 50% or more, the risk of death and the need for hospitalization of the patient in the intensive care unit are predicted, with the value probability below 50% of the patient is hospitalized in the hospital ward.