LU503357B1 - Method of numerical earthquake prediction - Google Patents
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- LU503357B1 LU503357B1 LU503357A LU503357A LU503357B1 LU 503357 B1 LU503357 B1 LU 503357B1 LU 503357 A LU503357 A LU 503357A LU 503357 A LU503357 A LU 503357A LU 503357 B1 LU503357 B1 LU 503357B1
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- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 abstract description 23
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- 238000004836 empirical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
- G01V1/01—Measuring or predicting earthquakes
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Abstract
The invention provides a method of numerical earthquake prediction, which comprises the following steps: constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area; simulating the spatio-temporal sequence of historical strong earthquakes in the monitoring area according to the three-dimensional numerical model, the initial stress field and the boundary conditions, and the best model obtained by fitting the time, location and magnitude sequences of historical strong earthquakes in the three-dimensional numerical models is determined as the best model; and carrying out continuous loading on the boundary of the best model, and calculating the three elements of time, location and magnitude of future strong earthquakes. The method is completely different from the empirical method and technology used for earthquake prediction at present, and it is a scientific calculation method based on mathematics, mechanics and earth science, and can give the time, location and magnitude of strong earthquakes in the future monitoring area through quantitative calculations, thus improving the accuracy of earthquake prediction.
Description
METHOD OF NUMERICAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION HUS03357
The invention relates to the technical field of earthquake prediction, and in particular to a method of numerical earthquake prediction.
Earthquake is a major natural disaster faced by human beings. Earthquake prediction can reduce earthquake disasters and protect life to some extent. Earthquake prediction has become an important subject in the field of scientific research in the world today.
However, over the past 50 years, although great progress has been made in the research of earthquake prediction worldwide, earthquake prediction is still an unsolved worldwide scientific problem because human beings are not very clear about the physical nature of the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence. Therefore, the current earthquake prediction results are usually inaccurate.
The existing earthquake prediction methods are mainly empirical based on earthquake precursors or statistical methods based on experience, lacking physical foundation, so the success rate of prediction is very low. In addition, in the existing numerical simulation technology, static (or quasi-static) mechanical calculation method is first used to simulate the preparation process of earthquakes, and then dynamic calculation method is used to continue to simulate the coseismic rupture process of earthquakes. In the simulation process, when the fault is in a critical state, the calculation result of static mechanical process is taken as the initial condition, and the calculation method is changed (switched to dynamic state) to continue the calculation, so that the process of earthquake preparation and coseismic rupture can be simulated continuously. However, the mechanical state in the calculation process is artificially changed during the above simulation, which is equivalent to decoupling the complex coupling relationship among stress, strain, displacement, friction constitutive relation, that is, in essence the frictional instability and the spontaneous rupture of the fault are artificially interfered. Meanwhile, this method cannot accurately judge the critical point 509357 of fault instability.
In order to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method of numerical earthquake prediction.
To achieve the above objective, the present invention provides the following solutions.
A method of numerical earthquake prediction, comprising: constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area; simulating the spatio-temporal sequence of historical strong earthquakes in the monitoring area according to the three-dimensional numerical model, the initial stress field and the boundary conditions, and the best model obtained by fitting the times, locations and the magnitudes of seismic sequences of historical major earthquakes in the three-dimensional numerical models is determined as the best model; and carrying out continuous loading on the boundary of the best model, and calculating the three elements of time, location and magnitude of future strong earthquakes.
Preferably, before constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area, the method further comprises: investigation and collecting the active fault structure, geophysics, geodesy and stress measurement data in the monitoring area to obtain geological data, geophysical data and geodesy data; the geological data comprise active fault structure and fault geometry, geophysical data comprise focal mechanism solution, underground fluid distribution, seismicity, borehole measurement, stress measurement and medium seismic velocity structure, density structure, viscosity structure, temperature structure and underground fluid structure given by geophysical inversion; the geodetic data comprise global positioning system, global navigation satellite system and 509357 interferometric synthetic aperture radar data.
Preferably, the physical parameters of the medium in the three-dimensional numerical model are determined by the medium seismic velocity structure, the density structure, the viscosity structure, the temperature structure and the underground fluid structure.
Preferably, the initial stress field and boundary conditions are obtained by fitting the stress orientation in the stress measurement and the focal mechanism solution and the surface velocity given by geodetic observation.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
The invention provides a method of numerical earthquake prediction, which comprises the following steps: constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area; simulating the spatio-temporal sequence of historical strong earthquakes in the monitoring area according to the three-dimensional numerical model, the initial stress field and the boundary conditions, and the best model obtained by fitting the time, location and magnitude sequences of historical strong earthquakes in the three-dimensional numerical models is determined as the best model; carrying out continuous loading on the boundary of the best model, and calculating the three elements of time, location and magnitude of the future strong earthquake. The method is completely different from the empirical method and technology based on earthquake precursors currently used for earthquake prediction. This method is a scientific calculation method based on mathematics, mechanics and earth science, and can give the time, location and magnitude of strong earthquakes in the future monitoring area through quantitative calculations, thus improving the accuracy of earthquake prediction.
In order to more clearly explain the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions over the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the figures that need to be used in the embodiments. Obviously, the figures in the following 11508887 description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other figures can be obtained according to these figures without any creative effort.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the prediction process provided by the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of finite element simulation provided by the embodiment of the present invention.
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the figures in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of them. Based on the embodiment of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in the field without creative effort are within the scope of the present invention.
The reference to "an embodiment" here means that a specific feature, structure or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment may be included in at least one embodiment of this application. The appearance of this phrase in various places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor is it an independent or alternative embodiment mutually exclusive with other embodiments. It is understood explicitly and implicitly by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein can be combined with other embodiments.
Terms such as "first", "second", "third" and "fourth" in the specification and claims of this application and the figures are used to distinguish different objects, rather than to describe a specific order. In addition, the terms "comprise" and "have" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. For example, a series of steps, processes, methods, etc. are not limited to the listed steps, but optionally also include steps not listed, or optionally include other step elements inherent to these 509357 processes, methods, products or equipment.
The objective of the invention is to provide a method of numerical earthquake prediction, which can improve the accuracy of earthquake prediction. 5 In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the present invention will be explained in more detail below with reference to the figures and detailed description.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 1, the present invention provides a method of numerical earthquake prediction, which includes:
Step 100, constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area;
Step 200, simulating the spatio-temporal sequence of historical strong earthquakes in the monitoring area according to the three-dimensional numerical model, the initial stress field and the boundary conditions, and the best model obtained by fitting the time, location and magnitude sequences of historical strong earthquakes in the three- dimensional numerical models is determined as the best model; and
Step 300: carrying out continuous loading on the boundary of the best model, and calculating the three elements of time, location and magnitude of future strong earthquakes.
Preferably, before the Step 100, the method further comprises: investigating and collecting the active fault structure, geophysics, geodesy and stress measurement data in the monitoring area to obtain geological data, geophysical data and geodesy data; the geological data comprise active fault structure and fault geometry, geophysical data comprise focal mechanism solution, underground fluid distribution, seismicity, borehole measurement, stress measurement and medium seismic velocity structure, density structure, viscosity structure, temperature structure and underground fluid structure given by geophysical inversion; the geodetic data comprise global positioning system(GPS), global navigation satellite system(GNSS) 509357 and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR).
The physical parameters of the medium in the three-dimensional numerical model are determined by the medium seismic velocity structure, the density structure, the viscosity structure, the temperature structure and the underground fluid structure. The initial stress field and boundary conditions are obtained by fitting the stress orientation in the stress measurement and the focal mechanism solution and the surface velocity given by geodesy such as GPS, GNSS and InSAR.
Specifically, as shown in Fig. 2 (the data in the second row and other measurement data, such as stress measurement, focal mechanism solution, etc.), this embodiment selects the area (monitoring area) for predicting the future strong earthquakes according to the national and social needs. Firstly, the seismic geological structure, fault geometry, geodesy, borehole measurement, stress measurement, focal mechanism solution, underground fluid distribution, seismic activity and the data of medium seismic velocity structure, density structure, viscous structure, temperature structure and underground fluid structure given by geophysical inversion are investigated and collected. Then, according to the data above, a three-dimensional numerical model including the monitoring area is established.
According to the medium seismic velocity structure, temperature structure, density structure, viscosity structure and fluid distribution in the monitoring area, the physical parameters of the medium in the three-dimensional numerical model are given. The boundary conditions and initial stress field of the model are obtained by fitting the focal mechanism, stress orientation in stress measurement and surface velocity given by geodesy such as GPS, GNSS and InSAR.
Based on the above-mentioned numerical model, the spatio-temporal sequence of strong earthquakes that occurred in the monitoring area in history is retrospectively simulated (for example, in the past 1000 years, the magnitude M>7.0) (the number of strong earthquakes is usually not less than 5, and if strong earthquakes occur frequently in the monitoring area, the time scale can be controlled in 300 or 500 years). The model that best fits the time, location and magnitude sequence of historical strong earthquakes 509357 is regarded as the best model.
Finally, the boundary of the best model is continuously loaded, the stress on the fault plane will increase continuously, reaching a certain limit, and the fault will rupture, resulting in a strong earthquake. This earthquake is obtained by numerical calculation; the time, location and magnitude of a strong earthquake are determined and unique by scientific calculations. This method of earthquake prediction is completely different from the current empirical or statistical methods based on earthquake precursors.
This embodiment makes use of a new finite element calculation program, so that the finite element calculation process can be carried out according to the user's intention.
The remarkable features of the improved finite element calculation are as follows: the calculation process can be automatically switched between static and dynamic, and the calculation time step can be automatically controlled, so it can not only calculate the long-term slow earthquake preparation process (one hundred years or longer), but also simulate the co-seismic process (namely the instantaneous fault rupture process, and the calculation time step can be as short as 0.001 seconds or less). As long as there is a mathematical expression of the friction constitutive relation on the fault plane, it can be easily embedded in the main program of finite element calculation. In the process of simulating earthquake rupture, there is no need to perform any artificial intervention (such as giving nucleation area, reducing friction coefficient, changing stress state, etc.) for continuous calculation. Using the improved finite element method, the research on the earthquake rupture process and the earthquake preparation process are comprehensively considered, which reduces the artificial intervention. According to the actual geological process, the stress state before the fault rupture is obtained by the slow structural loading, which overcomes the limitation of the artificial initial stress field. It can flexibly deal with complex boundary conditions and non-planar faults, and can simulate complex physical structures of media such as viscoelastic, viscoplastic, porous media, etc. In addition, in the calculation process, mesh generation can achieve self- adaptation, that is, in the calculation process, according to the accuracy requirements, the mesh is automatically encrypted. The simulation results show that the improved finite element method has unique advantages in simulating earthquake preparation and 509357 earthquake rupture.
In addition, the strong earthquake activity in Longmenshan thrust fault zone is simulated by using the new methods and technologies mentioned above. Firstly, the optimal finite element model in the interseismic phase is obtained by inverting the observation data (leveling and GPS observation) before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
Then, the model is slowly loaded according to the actual tectonic deformation rate, until the earthquake nucleates automatically and the fault spontaneously breaks, resulting in the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. This process has an advantage of reducing artificial intervention (for example, manually specifying a simple initial field, manually specifying the nucleation position and nucleation time), so that the rupture process is more likely to conform to the actual situation. Especially, the simulation shows that the recurrence period of strong earthquakes on Longmenshan fault zone is about 3298 years, which is quite consistent with the geological survey results such as paleoearthquakes.
In addition, during large earthquakes, the occurrence of small earthquakes on the low- dip fault in Longmenshan fault zone obeys the slip-predictable model, while the large earthquakes on the gentle dip fault obey the time-predictable model. However, the strong earthquakes on the steep dip are very complex and do not obey any prediction model. As shown in Fig. 3, the distribution diagram of dislocations on the gentle dip fault and steep dip fault in Longmenshan fault zone given by finite element simulation with time. Each step in Fig. 3 represents an earthquake event (sudden dislocation), the arrow corresponds to a strong earthquake, and the number in between is the recurrence interval of the earthquakes (the average is about 3298 years, which is in good agreement with the results of paleoearthquakes).
The invention has the following beneficial effects.
The method is completely different from the current method and technology of earthquake prediction based on earthquake precursors. This method is a scientific calculation method based on mathematics, mechanics and earth science, and gives the time, location and magnitude of strong earthquakes in the future monitoring area through quantitative calculation, thus improving the accuracy of earthquake prediction.
In this specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive way, and the 509357 differences between each embodiment and other embodiments are highlighted, so the same and similar parts of each embodiment can be referred to each other.
In this paper, specific examples are used to explain the principle and implementation of the present invention, and the explanations of the above embodiments are only used to help understand the method and core ideas of the present invention, meanwhile, according to the idea of the present invention, there will be some changes in the specific implementation and application scope for those of ordinary skill in the field. To sum up, the contents of this specification should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. A method of numerical earthquake prediction, comprising: constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area; simulating the spatio-temporal sequence of historical strong earthquakes in the monitoring area according to the three-dimensional numerical model, the initial stress field and the boundary conditions, and the best model obtained by fitting the time, location and magnitude sequences of historical strong earthquakes in the three- dimensional numerical models is determined as the best model; and carrying out continuous loading on the boundary of the best model, and calculating the three elements of time, location and magnitude of future strong earthquakes.
2. The method of numerical earthquake prediction according to claim 1, characterized in that before constructing a three-dimensional numerical model and the initial stress field and boundary conditions of the three-dimensional numerical model according to the acquired geological data, geophysical data and geodetic data of the monitoring area, the method further comprises: investigating and collecting the active fault structure, geophysics, geodesy and stress measurement data in the monitoring area to obtain geological data, geophysical data and geodesy data; the geological data comprise active fault structure and fault geometry, geophysical data comprise focal mechanism solution, underground fluid distribution, seismicity, borehole measurement, stress measurement and medium seismic velocity structure, density structure, viscosity structure, temperature structure and underground fluid structure given by geophysical inversion; the geodetic data comprise global positioning system, global navigation satellite system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data.
3. The method of numerical earthquake prediction according to claim 1, characterized in that the physical parameters of the medium in the three-dimensional numerical model are determined by the medium seismic velocity structure, the density structure, the viscosity structure, the temperature structure and the underground fluid 509357 structure.
4. The method of numerical earthquake prediction according to claim 1, characterized in that the initial stress field and boundary conditions are obtained by fitting the stress orientation in the stress measurement and the focal mechanism solution and the surface velocity given by geodetic observation.
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| LU503357A LU503357B1 (en) | 2023-01-16 | 2023-01-16 | Method of numerical earthquake prediction |
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| LU503357A LU503357B1 (en) | 2023-01-16 | 2023-01-16 | Method of numerical earthquake prediction |
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