LU502097B1 - Calculation Method for Grading and Staged Drought-limited Water Level or Flow Rate in River Course - Google Patents
Calculation Method for Grading and Staged Drought-limited Water Level or Flow Rate in River Course Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention comprises the following steps: specifically analyzing the water supply guarantee target of the river course according to various functions of the river course and the guarantee target of the river section in the drought period; according to the water supply guarantee target of the river, calculate the water demand inside and outside the river; comprehensive in-river and out-of-river security objectives, and control the drought limit water level or flow by stages, that is, setting the drought limit water level or flow by stages, which is divided into drought warning water level or flow and drought guaranteed water level or flow; the river section is divided into several drought early warning stages, and the drought-limited water level or flow rate of each early warning stage is obtained; the rationality of drought-limited water level or discharge is analyzed by return period analysis.
Description
DESCRIPTION LU502097 Calculation Method for Grading and Staged Drought-limited Water Level or Flow Rate in River Course
TECHNICAL FIELD The invention relates to the technical field of water resources dispatching, in particular to a calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course.
BACKGROUND The direct cause of drought is not meeing the demand for water for industrial and agricultural production, living and ecological environment in the region. The more serious the water shortage, and the greater the harm of drought disaster. The key to reducing drought is to relieve the contradiction of water shortage in arid areas to the greatest extent and reduce drought losses through measures such as emergency water transfer, scientific water allocation and water conservation. Therefore, timely grasping and reasonably judging the distribution of water resources in the region, the gap between supply and demand, and the degree of influence become the basic premise of drought-resistant command and decision-making. Generally speaking, the water demand for industrial and agricultural production, living and ecological environment in the region is relatively clear, and the available water supply of rivers, reservoirs and other water sources often becomes one of the most concerned indicators for drought emergency water dispatching. When the water level of lakes and reservoirs drops or the water volume decreases to a certain critical value, water shortage will occur in the region, and it will continue to drop to a certain extent, which will have an impact on various water demands of urban and rural residents, industrial and agricultural production, shipping and ecological environment. These indicators are important topics that must be studied to do a good job in drought emergency work.
It is the product of the natural geographical background in the river basin where it is located, and it is supplied by precipitation in different forms and through different transformation ways. Rivers are of great significance to the development of human society, and drought will have a great impact on coastal industrial and agricultural production, urban water supply, residents’ life, shipping and transportation, and the safety of natural ecology. Carrying out the research on the determination method and pilot application of the drought-limited water level (flow rate) in river sections may provide timely drought warning for decision-making departments at all levels atd/502097 the public, which will be a powerful impetus to the national drought emergency management and has important practical significance.
At present, in the field of flood control, China's river sections have established relatively perfect flood control index systems such as warning water level and guaranteed water level, which have played an important role in flood control and disaster reduction. However, in the field of drought resistance, China has not yet established drought characteristic indicators such as water level (flow rate) that may be used for drought emergency management. Drought emergency management such as hydrological drought reporting, drought early warning, drought consultation, emergency response, and water dispatching often lack scientific basis, and there is a phenomenon that the command and decision-making timing of drought resistance and disaster reduction is inaccurate or the emergency response is excessive, which to some extent affects the scientific and orderly development of drought resistance. Therefore, it is urgent to establish the index system of drought characteristics such as river water level (discharge) to provide scientific basis and technical support for drought-resistant command and decision-making.
SUMMARY The purpose of the present invention is to provide a calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course, so as to solve the aforementioned problems existing in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: A calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course includes the following steps: S1, according to the multiple functions of rivers and the guarantee targets of river sections in drought period, specifically analyzing the water supply guarantee targets of rivers; S2, according to the water supply guarantee target of the river, calculating the water demand in the river and the water demand outside the river; S3, considering the guarantee targets inside and outside rivers, due to the differences in water levels or flows of river sections in different periods of the year, targeting different drought-limited water levels or flows, that is, setting the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages; in the same period of the year, when the water levels or flows of river sections ak&J502097 different, setting the drought-limited water levels or flows with different warning levels, so as to ensure different water supply capacities in the future, and controlling the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages, that is, setting the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages, specifically drought warning water levels or flows and drought guaranteed water levels or flows.
S4, dividing multiple drought warning stages for the river section, wherein there are a plurality of different drought-limited water levels or flows in the same warning stage, and taking the maximum of all drought-limited water levels or flows in the same early warning stage as the stage drought-limited water level or flow of the early warning stage; SS, analyzing the rationality of the drought-limited water level or flow rate by the return period analysis method, and when the return period result is consistent with the return period of drought in history, it means that the determined drought-limited water level or flow rate is reasonable; Optionally, the water supply guarantee targets of the river course include social and economic water supply guarantee targets, ecological environment guarantee targets and shipping guarantee targets; S1 specifically includes the following contents, S11, through the investigation and collection of river water intakes and water supply information, analyzing and determining the social and economic water supply guarantee targets that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river water intake and water supply information includes water intake position, water intake elevation, water intake area, water industry, water consumption period and water consumption of each water intake; S12, collecting river ecological environment information through investigation, analyzing and determining related ecological environment guarantee targets that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river ecological environment information includes ecological water requirements of aquatic habitats and migratory species, water requirements for sand scouring and pollutant transportation, and environmental capacity; S13, collecting river shipping information through investigation, analyzing and determining the shipping guarantee objectives that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river shipping information includes navigable waters, channel grades, navigable time, navigable water level and shipping scheduling.
Optionally, the water demand outside the river is social and economic water demand; th&/502097 water demand in the river course includes ecological water demand and shipping water demand, wherein the ecological water demand includes basic ecological water demand and suitable ecological water demand; S2 specifically includes as follows: S21, calculating social and economic water demand by water consumption survey and statistics method or quota calculation method; S22, based on the local water supply rules, comparing the calculation results of 7Q10 method, minimizing continuous 30-day average flow method, flow percentage method and Tennant method, or determining the basic ecological and environmental water demand by the average flow method in the last 10 years; according to the local water supply rules, determining the appropriate ecological and environmental water demand by Tennant method; S23, calculating the shipping water demand by the safeguard rate frequency method; Optionally, the specific process of calculating the socio-economic water demand by using the water consumption survey and statistics method is as follows: Carrying out survey statistical data of water consumption by industry in the downstream of the fracture surface for 10 years; According to the type and mode of water use, investigating and counting urban and rural water supply, enterprise production, agricultural irrigation and environmental ecological water use data; Selecting several years with 75% incoming water frequency as the general dry year group, and calculating the average monthly water consumption in the general dry year group for each industry as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the general dry year; at the same time, selecting several years with 95% incoming water frequency as the ultra-low water year group; for each industry, calculating the monthly average water consumption in the ultra-low water year group as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the ultra-low water year.
Optionally, the concrete process of calculating socio-economic water demand by quota calculation method is as follows: Calculating the domestic water demand according to the residents’ domestic water quota and population development forecast results in the planning level year;
Calculating the industrial water demand according to the industrial water quota and grok$/502097 industrial output value in the planning level year; Calculating the irrigation water demand according to the irrigation area, planting structure, irrigation system and irrigation utilization coefficient in the planned horizontal year; Combining domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand to obtain socio-economic water demand.
Optionally, when calculating the basic eco-environmental water demand, calculating the basic eco-environmental water demand for the river control section with long series of hydrological data by the flow duration curve method, 7Q10 method or Qp method, and reasonably determining the basic eco-environmental water demand by comparing the calculation results; for the river control section lacking a long series of hydrological data, calculating the basic eco-environmental water demand by the average discharge method of the driest month in recent 10 years.
Optionally, tennant method is used to calculate the appropriate ecological environment water demand, 12 Wr =24x3600x ) Mix Q; XP i=1 Where Wy is the water demand to maintain a certain function of the river course under the condition of multi-year average; M; is the number of days in the i-th month; Q; is the multi-year average flow in i month; P; is the percentage of water demand for ecological environment in the i-th month; in low water period, usually selecting 10%-20% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological environment, and in high water period, usually selecting 30%-40% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological environment.
Optionally, in S3, calculating the drought-limited water level or flow rate of rivers at all stages and levels by the outer envelope method, step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water level or flow rate method; the process is as follows: S31, taking the maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage by using the outsourcing line method; Wisi = max{W,.; W,i}
Where W,; is the ecological water demand of the river in the ith month; W;; is the watet)502097 demand of river navigation in the ith month; W,; is the maximum value of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in the ith month; S32, obtaining the drought-limited water level or flow rate of rivers in each stage by the obtained maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage and the method of step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water level or flow rate; Q={max{W, ;, Wg} + (Wy i+ Wr; + Wu,d} Where Wy, ;, Wy; and W,,; are the monthly domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand in the general dry year or the extremely dry year of the first month, respectively; Q; is the monthly drought warning or drought guaranteed water flow; u() is the conversion function of river water demand-discharge; Z;=max{H, z(Q;)} Where Z; is monthly drought warning or drought guaranteed water level; z() is the river flow-water level conversion function; H is the nozzle elevation; Optionally, in S4, the calculation modes of water level or flow staging of drought warning/drought guaranteed level are as follows, Qr = max{Q;,Q,..Q; } Zr = max{Z, Z, Zi} Where QT is the drought warning or drought guaranteed flow rate of stage T, ZT is the drought warning or drought guaranteed water level in stages T, Q; is the flood warning or flood protection flow of the river course in the i-th month within the period T; Z; is the flood warning or flood protection water level of the river course in the i-th month in the period T.
Optionally, SS specifically includes as follows: S51, defining the stages (T1, T2 ..) of drought-limited flow, and obtaining the drought-limited flow of each stage; S52, from the first year of the long series of data, traversing the monthly flow in all year stages, and counting the number of years n in which the flow in each stage is lower than the drought limit flow;
S53, obtaining the return period r when the actual discharge in different stages is lower thdit)502097 the dry limit discharge of the river course; R= n Where N is the number of years of long series of traffic data; the calculation method of the return period of drought-limited water level is the same as that of drought-limited discharge; S54, determining whether the obtained return period R is consistent with the return period of drought in history, if so, it means that the determined drought limit water level or flow rate is reasonable; otherwise, it means that the determined drought limit water level or flow rate is unreasonable.
The method has the beneficial effects that: the main water requirements of the social and economic water supply guarantee target, the ecological environment guarantee target and the shipping guarantee target of the river section are comprehensively considered, combined with a certain designed water inflow process of the river course, the drought-limited water level (flow rate) is divided into stages through step-by-step control, step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water level (flow rate) method and outsourcing line method, and drought characteristic indexes such as water level which may be used for drought emergency management are established. It effectively solves the phenomenon of inaccurate command and decision-making time or excessive emergency response for drought relief, and establishes drought characteristic index system such as river water level, which provides scientific basis and technical support for drought relief command and decision-making.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FIGURES Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a calculation method in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of drought early warning stages at hydrological station A in the embodiment of the present invention; Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of outsourcing line, step-by-step superposition and step-by-step control in the embodiment of the present invention.
DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention will be further explained in detail with reference to the attached drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only fbt/502097 explaining the present invention, but not for limiting the present invention.
Embodiment 1 As shown in the figure, this embodiment provides a calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course, which includes the following steps: S1, according to the multiple functions of rivers and the guarantee targets of river sections in drought period, specifically analyzing the water supply guarantee targets of rivers; S2, according to the water supply guarantee target of the river, calculating the water demand in the river and the water demand outside the river; S3, considering the guarantee targets inside and outside the river course, due to the differences in water levels (flows) of river sections in different periods of the year, targeting different drought-limited water levels (flows), that is, setting the drought-limited water levels (flows) by stages; in the same period of the year, when the water levels (flows) of river sections are different, setting the drought limit water levels (flows) with different warning levels, and controlling the drought limit water levels (flows) by stages, so as to ensure the different water supply capacity in the future, that is, setting the drought limit water levels (flows) by stages, specifically dividing into drought warning water levels (flows) and drought guaranteed water levels (flows); S4, dividing multiple drought warning stages for the river section,, wherein there are several different drought-limited water levels (flows) in the same early warning stage, so taking the maximum of all drought-limited water levels (flows) in the same early warning stage as the stage drought-limited water level (flows) of the early warning stage; SS, analyzing the rationality of the drought limit water level or flow rate by the return period analysis method; when the return period results coincide with the return period of the drought in history, it means that the determined drought limit water level or flow rate is reasonable.
In this embodiment, the calculation method specifically includes five parts, namely, analyzing the water supply guarantee target, calculating the water demand inside and outside the river course, calculating the drought-limited water level (flow) of each stage, calculating the drought-limited water level (flow) of each early warning stage, and judging the rationality of thé/502097 drought-limited water level (flow) obtained by calculation.
These five parts is detailed explained as follows:
1. Analyzing water supply security objectives This part corresponds to the content of the above S1, and the water supply guarantee objectives of river courses include social and economic water supply guarantee objectives, ecological environment guarantee objectives and shipping guarantee objectives; S1 specifically includes followings, S11, social and economic water supply security objectives: through the investigation and collection of river water intakes and water supply information, analyzing and determining the social and economic water supply guarantee targets that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river water intake and water supply information includes water intake position, water intake elevation, water intake area, water industry, water consumption period, water consumption and other information of each water intake; S12, the goal of ecological environment protection: through the investigation and collection of river ecological environment information, analyzing and determining the relevant ecological environment protection objectives that need to be protected during the drought period, wherein the river ecological environment information includes ecological water requirements of aquatic habitats and migratory species, water requirements for sand scouring and pollutant transportation, environmental capacity and other data; S13, shipping guarantee objectives: through the investigation and collection of river shipping information, analyzing and determining the shipping guarantee objectives that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river shipping information includes navigable waters, channel grades, navigable time, navigable water level, shipping scheduling and other information.
2. Calculating the water demand inside and outside the river.
This part corresponds to the content of S2, and the water demand outside the river is social and economic water demand; the water demand in the river course includes ecological water demand and shipping water demand; the ecological water demand includes basic ecological water demand and suitable ecological water demand; S2 specifically includes the followings,
S21, calculating social and economic water demand by water consumption survey atdJ502097 statistics method or quota calculation method; S22, based on the local water supply rules, comparing the calculation results of 7Q10 method, minimum continuous 30-day average flow method, flow percentage method and Tennant method, or determining the basic ecological and environmental water demand by the average flow method in the last 10 years, and according to the local water supply rules, determine the appropriate ecological and environmental water demand by tennant method; S23, calculating the shipping water demand by the safeguard rate frequency method.
In this embodiment, the calculation of socio-economic water demand includes two ways, namely:
1. Calculating socio-economic water demand by water consumption survey statistics method: Carrying out statistical data of water consumption by industry in the downstream of the survey section in recent 10 years; According to the type and mode of water use,investigating and counting urban and rural water supply, enterprise production, agricultural irrigation and environmental ecological water use data; Selecting several years with 75% incoming water frequency as the general dry year group, and calculating the average monthly water consumption in the general dry year group for each industry as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the general dry year; at the same time, selecting several years with 95% incoming water frequency as the ultra-low water year group; for each industry, calculating the monthly average water consumption in the ultra-low water year group as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the ultra-low water year.
2. Calculating socio-economic water demand by quota calculation method: (When quota calculation method is adopted, please refer to GBT 51051-2014 Water Resources Planning Code for the calculation of socio-economic water demand) Calculating the domestic water demand according to the residents’ domestic water quota and population development forecast results in the planning level year; Calculating the industrial water demand according to the industrial water quota and gross industrial output value in the planning level year;
Calculating the irrigation water demand according to the irrigation area, planting structure{502097 irrigation system and irrigation utilization coefficient in the planned horizontal year; Combining domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand to obtain socio-economic water demand.
The ecological water demand shall should be subject to the local water supply rules as far as possible, and refer to the Handbook of river flow management. The ecological water demand includes basic ecological water demand and suitable ecological water demand.
In this embodiment, when calculating the basic ecological environment water demand, the basic ecological environment water demand may be reasonably determined by comparing the calculation results of various methods on the basis of 7Q10 method, minimum continuous 30-day average flow method, flow percentage method, Tennant method, etc. The following is as follws:
1. For the river control section with long series ( n>30 years) hydrological data, calculating the basic eco-environmental water demand by the method of flow duration curve, 7Q10 or Qp;
2. For the river control section lacking a long series of hydrological data, calculating the basic eco-environmental water demand by the average discharge method of the driest month in recent 10 years.
3. Comparing and analyzing the calculation results of various methods, and reasonably determining the minimum water demand of basic ecological environment.
In this embodiment, the appropriate ecological environment water demand may be calculated by Tennant method according to the water demand requirement of maintaining the normal ecological environment function corresponding to the protection target; Calculating the appropriate ecological environment water demand by Tennant method , 12 Wr =24x3600x ) Mix Q; XP i=1 where Wy is the water demand to maintain a certain function of the river course under the condition of multi-year average, M; is the number of days in the i-th month; Q; is the multi-year average flow in i month; P; is the percentage of water demand for ecological environment in the i-th month; in the low water period, usually selecting 10%-20% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological environment, and in the high water period, selecting 30%-40% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological502097 environment, as shown in Table 1. Table 1 Recommended river flow percentage under different habitats in the river Average flow percentage/Yoin low water Multi-period average flow river course period percentage/% 60-100 60-100 |. Verygood | 00000000 4 | 006 00 Middle Extreme difference In this embodiment, the calculation of shipping water demand refers to the Inland Navigation Standard (GB 40139-2014), and the navigable water level is calculated and determined by the guarantee rate frequency method in the reach which is not affected by tides and lakes.
3. Calculating the drought limit water level (flow) of rivers at all stages and levels.
This part corresponds to the content of S3. In S3, the water level (flow rate) of rivers in different stages and levels is calculated by the envelope method, step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of the water level (flow rate). The specific process is: S31, taking the maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage (each month) by using the outsourcing line method; Wis i = max{W, ; W, ;} Where W,. ; is the ecological water demand of the river in the ith month; Wg; is the water demand of river navigation in the ith month; Wi; is the maximum value of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in the ith month; S32, obtaining the drought-limited water levels (flows) of rivers in each stage by the obtained maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage and the method of step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water levels (flows); Qi=p{max{W, ; Wy} + Wei + Wr; + Wu,d} Where Wy; ;, Wg; and W,,; are the monthly domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand in the general dry year or the extremely dry year of the first month respectively; Q; is the flow of drought warning (drought guaranteed level) in the 02097 first month; HW() is the conversion function of river water demand-discharge; Z;=max{H,z(Q;)} Where Z; is the monthly drought warning (drought guaranteed level) water level; Z() is the river flow-water level conversion function; H is the nozzle elevation.
4. Calculating the drought limit water level (flow) of each early warning stage.
This part corresponds to the content of step S4. In step S4, the calculation methods of water level (flow) stages of drought warning (drought guaranteed level) are as follows, Qr = max{Q;,Q,..Q: } Zr = max{Z, Z, Z; } Where Qr is the flow of drought warning (drought guaranteed level) in stages T; ZT is the water level of drought warning (drought guaranteed level) in stages T; Q; is the flood warning (flood protection) flow of the river course in the i-th month in the period T; Z; is the flood warning (flood protection) water level of the river course in the i-th month in the period T.
Dividing multiple drought warning stages for the river section,, wherein there may be several different drought limit water levels (flows) in the same warning stage, at this time, taking the maximum of these drought limit water levels as the drought limit water level (flows) of this stage.
5. Judging the rationality of the drought limit water level (flow) obtained by calculation.
This part corresponds to the contents of S5, which specifically includes the followings, S51, defining the stages (T1, T2, ...) of the drought-limited water level (flow), and obtaining the drought-limited water level (flow) of each stage; S52, from the first year of the long series data, traverse the monthly flow in all year stages, and count the number n of years in which the flow is lower than the drought limit water level (flow); S53, obtaining the return period R when the actual flow rate in different stages is lower than the dry limit water level (flow rate) of the river; R= n
Where N is the number of years of long series of traffic data; the calculation method of th&}502097 return period of drought-limited water level is the same as that of drought-limited discharge.
S54, determining whether the obtained return period R is consistent with the return period of drought in history, if so, it means that the determined drought limit water level (flow rate) is reasonable; otherwise, it means that the determined drought limit water level (flow rate) is unreasonable.
The rationality of drought-limited water level (discharge) is judged by return period analysis and historical drought consistency analysis. The return period analysis suggests that the drought warning water level (discharge) should be once every 10 years and the drought guaranteed water level (discharge) should be once every 20 years in humid area. The water level (flow rate) of drought warning in dry area is once every five years, and the drought guaranteed water level (flow rate) is once every ten years.
Embodiment 2 In this embodiment, the implementation process of the calculation method of the present invention is specifically illustrated. As shown in Figure 1, the water users along the river downstream of a hydrological station A are a large irrigation area, and the water intake is located at the bottom of the riverbed, so there is no requirement for the section water level.
Combining with the characteristics of river courses and referring to the content of step S1, the calculation in this embodiment mainly considers the socio-economic water demand, ecological water demand and shipping water demand of river courses.
Combined with the content of step S2, in this embodiment, the monthly water demand process of the irrigation area in general low-water year and extra-low-water year is obtained by using water consumption survey and statistics method and quota calculation method respectively. From the point of view of partial safety, the comprehensive water demand is obtained by taking the maximum value of the water consumption obtained by the two methods month by month, which is the basis of the calculation of the drought-limited water level (discharge). The pumping quantity of irrigation districts in each month calculated by these two methods is shown in Table 2 below.
Table 2 Pumping quantity of irrigation area (m*/s) LU502097 water consumption demand 75% 95% 75% 95% 75% 95% Year Year Year Year Year Year | January | 14 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 9 | | Ma [| 17 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 19 | | May | 8 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 17 | | September | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | October | 0 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | December | 9 | 15 | 6 | 7 [ 9 | 15 | In the ecological water demand, Tennant method is used to calculate the appropriate ecological flow of the river, which is 20.1 m°/s; according to the detailed regulation of water quantity of the river where the hydrological station is located, the hydrological station needs to ensure the low limit flow of 12 m°/s and the early warning flow of 25 m°/s.
In order to combine with the current dispatching management, 12 m°/s is adopted as the minimum ecological flow (basic ecological and environmental water demand) and 25m*/s as the appropriate ecological flow.
The river ecological water demand of each fish meal obtained is shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3 Ecological water demand of river course (m°/s) Minimum ecological flow Suitable ecological flow The calculation of shipping water demand needs to refer to the Inland Navigation Standard (GB 40139-2014), and the navigable water level shall be calculated and determined by the guarantee rate frequency method for the river sections which are not affected by tides and lakes.
The obtained water demand for river navigation in each month is shown in Table 4 below.
Table 4 Water demand for river navigation (m*/s) LU502097 Month Water demand of irrigation area in | Water demand of irrigation district in 75% ranking year 95% ranking year January [| —ê | TT | Ma May “Sewber | à | °° eke | à [0 [ Pœmbr | @ [7 According to S3, monthly drought warning water level and monthly drought guaranteed water level are calculated by monthly accumulation method, and the calculation results are shown in Table 5 below.
Table 5 Monthly flow rate of drought warning and drought guaranteed level at hydrological station À (m°/s) Drought warning flow Dry flow protection According to S4, comprehensively considering the monthly average precipitation, runoff, water level and water consumption law of the irrigation area of Hydrological Station A, a hydrological year is divided into four periods, March-May is the agricultural irrigation period, June-August is the main flood season, September-October is the end of flood season, and November-February is the non-flood season. The maximum monthly drought warning (protection) flow in each stage is used as the staged drought warning flow and the staged drought guaranteed flow, and the results are shown in Table 6 below.
Table 6 Flow rate of drought warning and drought guaranteed level in hydrological statiohU502097 A (m°/s) flow Non-flood season Irrigation peak period Flood season End of flood season Non-flood season According to S5, the rationality analysis of the drought limit water level (discharge) is carried out by the return period method.
According to the monthly flow data statistics of 58 years from 1961 to 2018, the flow rate of drought warning is lower than that of drought warning for 14 years in dry season, 9 years in irrigation period and 9 years in flood season, and the return period is within 4-6 years.
In the dry season, the flow rate 1s lower than that of the dry season for 7 years, the flow rate is lower than that of the dry season for 6 years in the irrigation period, and the flow rate is lower than that of the dry season for 6 years in the flood season, and the return period is within 8-10 years.
The results of rationality verification are shown in Table 7 below.
Table 7 Rationality Test of Drought Limit Flow at Hydrological Station A Stages drought warning flow Dry flow protection Number of times lower Recurrence Number of times lower | Recurrence period than the drought period (year) than the drought (year) warning flow rate guaranteed flow rate Drought 14 4 7 period Irrigation 10 period | Flood season | 9 | 6 | 6 0 10 | season By adopting the technical scheme disclosed by the invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained: The invention provides a calculation method for water level or flow rate of drought limit in river course by grading and stages, which comprehensively considers the main water demand of the social and economic water supply guarantee target, the ecological environment guaranté&)502097 target and the shipping guarantee target of the river section, and combines with a certain designed water inflow process of the river course, and stages the water level (flow rate) of the river course through step-by-step control, step-by-step superposition of the water level (flow rate) of the drought limit and envelope method, so as to establish drought characteristic indexes such as water level which may be used for drought emergency management. The method effectively solves the phenomenon that the command and decision-making time of drought resistance and disaster reduction is inaccurate or the emergency response is excessive, establishes drought characteristic index systems such as river water level, and provides scientific basis and technical support for the command and decision-making of drought resistance.
The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and it should be pointed out that those of ordinary skill in the technical field may make several improvements and embellishments without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these improvements and embellishments should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course, characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, according to the functions of rivers and the guarantee targets of river sections in drought period, analyzing the guarantee targets of water supply of rivers; S2, according to the guarantee targets of water supply of the river, calculating the water demand in the river and the water demand outside the river; S3, considering the guarantee targets inside and outside rivers, due to the differences in water levels or flow rate of river sections in different periods of the year, setting different drought-limited water levels or flow rates, that is, setting the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages; in the same period of the year, when the water levels or flow rates of river sections are different, setting the drought-limited water levels or flow rates with different warning levels, and controlling the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages, so as to ensure water supply capacities in the future, that is, setting the drought-limited water levels or flows by stages, specifically drought warning water levels or flow rates and drought guaranteed water levels or flow rates; S4, dividing multiple drought warning stages for the river section, wherein there are different drought-limited water levels or flow rates in the same early warning stage, and taking the maximum of all drought-limited water levels or flow rates in the same early warning stage as the stage drought-limited water level or flow rate of the early warning stage; SS, analyzing the rationality of the drought-limited water level or flow rate by the return period analysis method, when the return period result is consistent with the return period of drought in history, it means that determined drought-limited water levels or flow rates are reasonable; the water demand outside the river is social and economic water demand; the water demand in the river course includes ecological water demand and shipping water demand; the ecological water demand includes basic ecological water demand and suitable ecological water demand; S2 includes as follows: S21, calculating social and economic water demand by water consumption survey and statistics method or quota calculation method;
S22, based on the local water supply rules, comparing the calculation results of 7Q 10502097 method, at least continuous 30-day average flow method, flow percentage method and Tennant method, or determining the basic ecological water demand by the average flow method in the last 10 years; according to the local water supply rules, determining the appropriate ecological water demand by Tennant method;
S23, calculating the shipping water demand by the safeguard rate frequency method,
S3, calculating the drought-limited water level or flow rate of rivers at stages and levels by the outer envelope method, step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water level or flow rate method; the process is as follows:
S31, taking the maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage by using the outsourcing line method;
Wisi = max{W,.; W,i}
where W,.; is the ecological water demand of the river in the i-th month; W,; is the water demand of river navigation in the ith month; W,; is the maximum value of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in the ith month;
S32, obtaining the drought-limited water level or flow of rivers in each stage by the obtained maximum values of ecological water demand and shipping water demand in each stage and the method of step-by-step control and step-by-step superposition of drought-limited water level or flow;
Q:=u{max{W,;, Wy} + (Wy, + Wr + Word}
where Wy, ;, Wui and W,,; are the monthly domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand of the i-th month in the general dry year or the extremely dry year, respectively; Q; is the drought warning or drought guaranteed flow of the i-th month; WO) is the conversion function of river water demand-discharge;
Z;=max{H, z(Q;)}
where Z; is monthly drought warning or drought guaranteed water level; z() is the river flow-water level conversion function; H is the water gap elevation;
SS includes as follows:
S51, defining the stages (T1, T2 ..) of drought-limited flow, and obtaining the drought-limited flow of each stage;
S52, from the first year of the long series of data, traverse the monthly flow in all yekt/502097 stages, and count the number of years n in which the flow in each stage is lower than the drought limit flow; S53, obtaining the return period R when the actual flow rate in different stages is lower than the drought limited flow rate of the river course; R= n where N is the number of years of long series of flow rate data; the calculation method of the return period of drought-limited water level is the same as that of drought-limited flow rate; S54, determining whether the obtained return period R is consistent with the return period of drought in history, if so, it means that the determined drought limit water level or flow rate is reasonable; otherwise, it means that the determined drought limit water level or flow rate is unreasonable.
2. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course according to claim 1, characterized in that the water supply guarantee targets of the river course include social and economic water supply guarantee targets, ecological guarantee targets and shipping guarantee targets; S1 includes as follows: S11, through the investigation and collection of river water intakes and water supply information, analyzing and determining the social and economic water supply guarantee targets that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river water intakes and water supply information includes water intake position, water intake elevation, water intake area, water industry, water consumption period and water consumption of each water intake; S12, collecting river ecological environment information through investigation, analyzing and determining related ecological environment guarantee targets that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river ecological environment information includes ecological water requirements of aquatic habitats and migratory species, water requirements for sand scouring and pollutant transportation, and environmental capacity; S13, collecting river shipping information through investigation, analyzing and determining the shipping guarantee objectives that need to be guaranteed during the drought period, wherein the river shipping information includes navigable waters, channel grades, navigable time, navigable water level and shipping scheduling.
3. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate 14502097 river course according to claim 1, characterized in that the process of calculating the socio-economic water demand by the water consumption survey is as follows: surveying statistical data of water consumption by industry in the downstream of the fracture surface for 10 years; according to the type and mode of water use, investigating and counting of urban and rural water supply, enterprise production, agricultural irrigation and environmental ecological water use data; selecting several years with 75% incoming water frequency as the general dry year group, and calculating the average monthly water consumption in the general dry year group for each industry as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the general dry year; at the same time, selecing several years with 95% incoming water frequency as the ultra-low water year group, for each industry, calculating the monthly average water consumption in the ultra-low water year group as the socio-economic water demand of the industry in the ultra-low water year.
4. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course according to claim 1, characterized in that the process of calculating socio-economic water demand by quota calculation method is as follows: calculating the domestic water demand according to the residents’ domestic water quota and population development forecast results in the planning level year; calculating the industrial water demand according to the industrial water quota and gross industrial output value in the planning level year; calculating the irrigation water demand according to the irrigation area, planting structure, irrigation system and irrigation utilization coefficient in the planning level year; combining domestic water demand, industrial water demand and irrigation water demand to obtain socio-economic water demand.
5. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course according to claim 1, characterized in that when calculating the basic ecological water demand, the flow duration curve method, 7Q10 method or Qp method are used to calculate the basic ecological water demand for the river control section with long series of hydrological data, and the basic ecological water demand is determined by comparing the calculation results;
for the river control section lacking a long series of hydrological data, the basic ecological watkt)502097 demand is calculated by the average discharge method of the driest month in recent 10 years.
6. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course according to claim 1, characterized in that calculating the appropriate ecological water demand by Tennant method is as follows: 12 Wr =24x3600x ) Mix Q; XP i=1 where Wy is the water demand to maintain a certain function of the river course under the condition of multi-year average; M; is the number of days in the i-th month; Q; is the multi-year average flow in 7 month; P; is the percentage of water demand for ecological environment in the i-th month; in low water period, usually selecting 10%-20% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological environment, and in high water period, selecting 30%-40% of the average annual flow as the water demand for ecological environment.
7. The calculation method for grading and staged drought-limited water level or flow rate in river course according to claim 1, characterized in that in S4, the computing methods of water level or flow of drought warning/ drought guaranteed are as follows: Qr = max{Q;,Q,..Q; } Zr = max{Z, Z, Zi} where Qr is the drought warning or drought guaranteed flow rate in stage T; ZT is the drought warning or drought guaranteed water level in stage T; Q; is the flood warning or flood guaranteed flow rate of the river course in the i-th month in stage T; Z; is the flood warning or flood guaranteed water level of the river course in the i-th month in the period T.
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