KR20220038843A - Method for managing construction process based on weather prediction - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method for managing a construction process based on weather prediction, by which a process management system establishes an initial work plan including the number of required work days for each construction with respect to a target construction project, calculates a weather forecast value for each detailed meteorological index of climate data for a preset period based on a construction start date, considers the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan, but derives the expected end date of the initial work plan by using the calculated weather forecast value, compares the derived expected end date with the target end date of the initial work plan to derive an insufficient number of required processes, and adjusts the initial work plan into detailed work units by using a combination of the number of extra workers available for the insufficient number of required processes and the extra work days. Therefore, the method enables scheduling of work that minimizes an unnecessary waste of construction period.

Description

Method for managing construction process based on weather prediction}

The present invention relates to a technology for managing a construction process, and in particular, a method for managing a process at a construction site based on weather forecasting, but adjusting a schedule for detailed work to determine whether work is impossible according to a predicted weather index, the method It relates to a recording medium and a process control system.

Various process management technologies exist to establish or adjust a series of work schedules required at the construction site. It has the advantage of being able to reflect In the case of a number of conventional process control technologies that consider the weather, rather than predicting and applying the future weather, it is immediately Work adjustments were made for safety. In the case of another conventional process control technology, the construction period was set longer than necessary by applying a spare period for uncertainty of future weather changes in advance. Various weather-related uncertainties that can affect the working environment at the construction site (e.g., earthquake, yellow dust, typhoon, lightning, etc.) that is the situation.

According to statistics, 80% of the world economy is directly or indirectly affected by weather, and as meteorological disasters occur frequently due to climate change, the importance of strategic use of meteorological data is gradually emerging. However, since most construction industries work outdoors, they are vulnerable to weather, climate, or seasonal characteristics, so construction and management through weather data analysis are absolutely necessary. The construction industry, which is mainly affected by temperature, precipitation, and wind, suffers from deterioration in construction quality due to weather changes, the possibility of poor construction, damage to facilities, safety accidents, and delays in the process.

A very low or high temperature may cause chemical changes, cessation and decline of physical action, freeze and thaw, as well as decrease in work productivity, resulting in inability to work and defective parts. For example, when the temperature is below 0°C, the setting of cement paste is delayed, which adversely affects the hardening of concrete, and when the temperature is below 4°C, the quality of concrete is highly likely to deteriorate. In addition, rainfall affects most construction works except for interior finishing and facility construction. In particular, earthworks, foundation works, and frame work cannot be carried out during rain, and some additional time is required for drying even after the rain stops. Whether or not work is impossible due to rain varies by construction type, and whether or not construction is performed depends on the rainy season and rainfall, but it is very difficult to consider all these things in advance in reality. If the rainfall is more than 10 mm per hour, it can be considered that most of the work is impossible because the water is slightly stagnant. Furthermore, the wind affects the transport, assembly, welding, and lifting work of heavy objects including steel frame work, and when the wind speed is above a certain limit, normal work is impossible in consideration of safety.

Therefore, in order to reduce the waste factor of additional construction or construction site, which can incur a lot of cost, and to prevent unexpected casualties, the strategic use of weather information minimizes risks from weather conditions and maximizes construction profits. Needs to be. Accordingly, a non-face-to-face remote construction project that utilizes weather information to professionally manage the overall business stage of construction on behalf of the client, from the planning and design stage of the construction project to the ordering, construction, completion, and maintenance stage. It is required to develop a technology that can prevent losses that may occur at the construction site due to weather changes in advance by linking the management service and meteorological data.

Korean Patent No. 10-1907964, "Construction site safety management monitoring system and method"

The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the conventional construction process management technology that considers the weather takes an approach that responds immediately to the weather change on the site. By adopting a strategy of overcoming the limitations that are not being utilized at all and establishing a work schedule longer than the actual required schedule by setting a spare period in advance to respond to normal weather uncertainty, it solves the problem of unnecessary construction delays, Due to the high cost of commercial forecast data according to weather changes, it is intended to solve the weakness that is difficult to apply to the construction business management of small and medium-sized individual clients.

In order to solve the above technical problem, the process management method based on weather prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention is (a) the process management system establishes an initial work plan including the number of required work days for each type of work in relation to the target construction project step; (b) calculating, by the process management system, a weather forecast value for each detailed meteorological index of the climate data for a preset period based on the construction start date; (c) deriving, by the process management system, an expected end date of the initial work plan by using the calculated weather forecast value while considering the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan; (d) deriving insufficient required man-hours by comparing the expected end date derived by the process management system with the target end date of the initially set work plan; and (e) adjusting, by the process management system, the initial work plan into detailed work units by using a combination of the number of additional workers and additional work days available for the required number of hours.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, the step (b) of calculating a weather forecast value includes: (b1) detailed meteorological indicators, which are dependent variables, from conventional climate data collected for a preset period based on the construction start date setting a multiple regression function by selecting a plurality of independent variables; (b2) determining a regression coefficient by deriving an objective function that minimizes the error of the set multiple regression function; and (b3) calculating a weather forecast value for the preset period for each detailed weather index through multiple regression analysis according to the determined regression coefficient; Including, wherein the plurality of independent variables are preset for each detailed task according to the type of work It can be set to correspond to individual weather indicators of the stopping criteria.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, the step (c) of deriving the expected end date of the initial work plan includes: (c1) the work start date for each detailed work according to the type of work according to the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan to set; (c2) deriving a work end date for each detailed task by counting from the work start date for each detailed task using the available workable days calculated by comparing the weather forecast calculated for each detailed meteorological index with a work stop criterion set in advance for each detailed task; and (c3) deriving the expected end date of the initial work plan by sequentially connecting work end dates for each detailed work in consideration of the time-series work order.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, the step (c2) of deriving the work end date for each detailed work is to determine the work stop standard from the work stop range for each detailed work according to a plurality of work types collected for the detailed meteorological index, but , separate external and internal work for each detailed work to designate the work cessation range, and determine the adjustment range for judging whether or not work is possible according to the work area or the skill level of the worker in the area where at least one or more work stop ranges do not overlap. can be set.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, in the step (d) of deriving insufficient required man-hours, (d1) when the derived expected end date is later than the target end date, the difference between the expected end date and the target end date calculating; and (d2) deriving insufficient required man-hours from the product of the required working days corresponding to the calculated difference and the number of required workers based on the standard manpower.

In the process control method according to an embodiment, the step (e) of adjusting the initial work plan to a detailed work unit includes at least the generating candidate plans for one or more detailed tasks; (e2) matching with the candidate plan by calculating a profit and loss representative value from the change in cost and schedule change for the generated candidate plan; and (e3) adjusting the initial work plan in a detailed work unit using the candidate plan matched with the profit and loss representative value.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, in the step (e1) of generating a candidate plan for detailed work, the number of additional workers and additional A combination of work days is derived, but whether there is a task that satisfies the preset work stop criteria for each detailed task within a period adjacent to the work start date of the detailed task and can change the order, or according to the weather forecast value of the work start date of the detailed task It is possible to create a candidate plan according to work order change or work replacement by judging whether there is a work that satisfies the work stop criteria and can be replaced.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, the step (e2) of calculating a profit and loss representative value and matching the candidate plan may include, with respect to the generated candidate plan, a cost according to the number of workers changed to satisfy the required man-hours, workers By calculating the cost profit and loss value calculated from the change in cost according to the skill level of the worker and the cost change according to the replacement of work and a fixed profit and loss value according to the schedule delay, and linearly combining the calculated cost profit and loss value and the fixed profit and loss value, the cost and It is possible to calculate a profit and loss representative value considering the change of schedule at the same time and store it by matching with the candidate plan. In addition, in the step (e2) of calculating a profit and loss representative value and matching the candidate plan, the cost profit/loss value and the fixed profit/loss value are set complementary weights according to the user's selection to determine the profit/loss according to the cost change. The representative value of profit and loss may be calculated by differentially considering the degree of profit and loss according to the degree and schedule change.

In the process management method according to an embodiment, in the step (e3) of adjusting the initial work plan in a detailed work unit, the degree of damage is minimized according to the calculated profit and loss representative value when a plurality of the candidate plans are generated. By selecting a candidate plan, the initial work plan can be adjusted to a detailed work unit.

On the other hand, below, a computer-readable recording medium in which a program for executing the process management method described above is recorded on a computer is provided.

Embodiments of the present invention predict the weather based on public meteorological data during the construction period using multiple regression analysis designed to correspond to individual weather indicators of work cessation criteria set in advance for each detailed work according to the type of construction, so that small and medium-sized clients It promotes flexible schedule management, estimates whether the construction process is delayed by comparing work stop criteria for each detailed task according to the weather forecast calculated for each detailed weather indices, and derives insufficient man-hours according to the delay in order to change the order or replace work. By selecting a candidate plan that minimizes damage and generating a candidate plan according to By calculating the profit-and-loss representative value in consideration, it is possible to induce the selection of an optimal candidate plan that meets the needs of a plurality of clients.

1 is a view for explaining the basic idea of the present invention for managing the construction process based on weather forecast.
2 is a flowchart illustrating a process management method based on weather prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process of calculating a weather forecast value for each detailed weather index in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4 is a view for explaining a multiple regression model designed to perform weather prediction in consideration of the work stoppage criterion.
5 is a diagram illustrating a result of predicting the weather at the site for each detailed weather index.
6 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process of deriving an expected end date of an initial work plan in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
7 is a view illustrating a work stop standard for each detailed work according to the type of work.
FIG. 8 is a view for explaining a process of deferring non-overlapping areas from a plurality of work stop ranges.
9 is a diagram illustrating a result of determining whether work is possible for each detailed task according to a weather forecast value.
10 is a diagram illustrating a calculation result of workable days for each detailed task.
11 is a diagram illustrating a process of determining whether or not a target end date is complied with in consideration of a time-series work sequence and whether work is possible according to a weather forecast value.
12 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process of deriving insufficient required man-hours in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
13 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process of adjusting an initial work plan into detailed work units in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
14 is a view for explaining factors to be considered in the process of deriving an adjusted work plan and a representative value of profit and loss.
15 is a block diagram illustrating a process management system based on weather prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. However, detailed descriptions of well-known functions or configurations that may obscure the gist of the present invention in the following description and accompanying drawings will be omitted. In addition, throughout the specification, 'including' a certain component does not exclude other components unless otherwise stated, but means that other components may be further included.

The terms used in the present invention are only used to describe specific embodiments, and are not intended to limit the present invention. The singular expression includes the plural expression unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. In the present application, terms such as "comprises" or "comprises" are intended to designate that the described feature, number, step, operation, component, part, or combination thereof exists, but is one or more other features or It should be understood that the existence or addition of numbers, steps, operations, components, parts, or combinations thereof does not preclude the possibility of addition.

Unless specifically defined otherwise, all terms used herein, including technical and scientific terms, have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. Terms such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries should be interpreted to have meanings consistent with the context of the related art, and are not to be interpreted in an ideal or excessively formal meaning unless explicitly defined in the present application. .

1 is a view for explaining the basic idea of the present invention for managing the construction process based on weather forecasting. Embodiments of the present invention utilize meteorological data to order, construct, and complete a construction project from the planning and design stage. In order to calculate the number of workable days by linking the construction project management service and the weather conditions up to the maintenance stage, it is intended to provide a technical means to predict the weather change and prevent the construction period and cost loss.

In the embodiments of the present invention for managing the expected process based on the weather forecast, first, the meteorological data required for the construction site is collected to calculate the number of working days required in the actual environment. Analyze weather data such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. According to different construction sites, it is possible to use regional weather data to derive the number of workable days and use it for each construction site. By referring to the predicted weather data, it was not simply judged whether work was possible at the construction site, but detailed work was classified according to the type of work and compared with the work stop standards required for each detailed work. Here, the work stoppage standards are established from work requirements collected from various construction companies and field engineers as accumulated from experience in the field according to detailed work. In other words, various options such as work that can be performed now, work that can be performed in the near future, work that can be replaced, work that can change the order, etc. , and referring to the initially established work plan, it is possible to create an adjusted work plan by reflecting these options. Through this configuration, it is possible to maximize the real-time process rate and accurately predict the process progress in the future.

Referring to FIG. 1 , which illustrates a part of the design screen of the present invention for determining the number of workable days for each type of work, it is possible to predict the regional weather information of Jeju Island by date, select a construction site in a specific area, and perform each scheduled detailed work in advance was displayed. This judgment is derived by comparing the detailed meteorological indicators required for each detailed work with the work cessation standards, and helps to derive the number of workable days for each work type and construction period.

2 is a flowchart illustrating a process management method based on weather prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In step S210, the process management system establishes an initial work plan including the number of required work days for each type of work with respect to the target construction project. In this process, the time-series arrangement of detailed work for each type of construction project is set in consideration of all elements of the normal work sequence, manpower input, and cost, and an initial work plan is created from this.

In step S220, the process management system calculates a weather forecast value for each detailed meteorological index of the climate data for a preset period based on the construction start date. Since the construction site is placed in various working environments depending on the season or work date, it is necessary to analyze the conventional climate data based on the construction start date in consideration of the weather factor. The researchers of the present invention performed weather prediction using public weather data of the past 30 years when developing a prototype, but may be able to add or subtract an appropriate period to be analyzed according to climate change. In climate analysis, not all detailed meteorological indicators provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration or private companies are used, but ground indicators that require observation for each detailed work at the construction site are selectively used. In this case, the detailed meteorological indices that serve as the standard should correspond to the meteorological indices required by the work cessation standards to be introduced later. For example, there are restrictions on rainfall/snowfall, temperature, humidity, and wind speed in concrete pouring, so meteorological indicators are required. In predicting the weather during the current construction period from the past climate data, various machine learning algorithms can be used, and an example thereof will be introduced later with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4 .

In step S230, the process management system considers the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan established through step S210, but derives the expected end date of the initial work plan using the weather forecast value calculated through step S220. . In this process, if detailed work is carried out according to the work order of the initial work plan established above, it is determined whether the work can be performed due to the weather expected on the scheduled date/period for each work. If it is impossible to proceed with the work due to the expected weather according to the treatment policy at the typical construction site, the work is postponed, and the work schedule is sequentially adjusted to obtain the expected end date.

In step S240, the process management system compares the expected end date derived through step S230 with the target end date of the initially set work plan to derive the insufficient required man-hours. Now, by comparing the expected end date according to the deferred initial work plan and the target end date at the time of the original design, the number of work required for the deferred plan to comply with the target end date is calculated. Here, man hour is a quantification of the amount of work for each detailed process and work period on the premise of standard work ability. Accordingly, the man-hour may be determined from the combination of the worker's standard work ability and the work time (or work day), and the required man-hour may be obtained through comparison with the scheduled work load.

In step S250, the process management system adjusts the initial work plan into detailed work units by using a combination of the number of additional workers and additional work days available for the required man-hours derived through step S240. This process presupposes revision of the deferred work plan to comply with the initial target end date, adjusting the detailed work through the combination of the number of additional workers available at the construction site and the additional working days. In particular, in adjusting the schedule, the embodiments of the present invention suggest various options as a candidate plan in consideration of detailed weather indicators and work stop criteria for each detailed work according to the type of work together, and criteria for determining the adequacy of such a candidate plan As a result, an index called profit and loss representative was created. Profit and loss representative value is an index that combines not only normal cost gains and losses, but also a certain profit/loss ratio that converts qualitative gains and losses resulting from schedule changes into quantitative values. It has the advantage of being able to reflect The representative profit and loss value will be described in more detail later with reference to FIGS. 13 and 14 .

3 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process (step S220) of calculating a weather forecast value for each detailed weather indicator in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention, among various artificial intelligence methodologies related to weather forecasting. An embodiment using regression analysis is presented.

In step S221 , a multiple regression function may be set by selecting a plurality of independent variables related to detailed weather indicators, which are dependent variables, from conventional climate data collected for a preset period based on the construction start date.

Referring to FIG. 4 illustrating a multiple regression model designed to perform weather prediction in consideration of the work stoppage criterion, the graph is visualized by linking a single independent variable and a dependent variable. For weather prediction, multiple independent variables must be utilized, so a multiple regression function that can select multidimensional independent variables is needed. In this case, it is preferable that the plurality of independent variables be set to correspond to the individual weather indicators of the work stop criteria set in advance for each detailed work according to the type of work. 4, it can be seen that the selection of independent variables (x ₁ , x ₂ , ..., x _n ) is made according to the work stop criteria 410 for each detailed task first, and each independent The final regression function representing the relationship with the dependent variable (y) can be modeled by determining the regression coefficients (b ₁ , b ₂ , ..., b _n ) associated with the variable.

In step S222, a regression coefficient may be determined by deriving an objective function that minimizes the error of the multiple regression function set in step S221. As an evaluation index for measuring the accuracy of the multiple regression function, a root mean square error (RMSE), a mean absolute error (MAE), or the like may be used.

From an implementation point of view, daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, rainfall, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, wind direction, humidity, sunshine by using the API authentication key provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal and public data portal or using XML Weather data such as time and solar radiation can be obtained. A multiple regression function may be modeled using the obtained detailed weather index as an independent variable, and a regression coefficient for each independent variable may be determined. In particular, through the prototype developed according to the embodiments of the present invention, the long-term forecast and the average climate are checked by calculating the average climate value of the weather information for the past 30 years, and after linking the public weather data API, the construction project management It was possible to calculate the construction period and the number of workers for each type of work according to the work suspension criteria.

In step S223, a weather forecast value for the preset period may be calculated for each detailed weather index through multiple regression analysis according to the regression coefficient determined in step S222. Now, multiple regression functions can be utilized to derive weather forecasts for the period over which scheduled detailed work should be performed.

In the above, a weather prediction method using multiple regression analysis has been proposed, but as long as the weather index required by the work stop criterion 410 for each detailed task is selected as the observation target, long short-term memory (LSTM) or deep neural (DNN) network) may be used.

5 is a diagram illustrating a result of predicting the weather of the site for each detailed weather indices. It can be confirmed that detailed weather indices such as weather forecasts are specifically presented according to the time trend of the date exemplified in a short period of time. However, it is difficult to predict such weather by section (for example, monthly or weekly) of the entire construction schedule in which the construction project is carried out. It is possible to predict the weather for each section from the start date. That is, it is possible to determine whether the construction can proceed normally by using the weather forecast for each section adjacent to the time when detailed work is being performed.

6 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process (step S230) of deriving an expected end date of an initial work plan in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In step S231, the work start date for each detailed work according to the type of work is set according to the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan. Since the order of the detailed tasks established according to the initial work plan is determined, the work start date of individual tasks can also be known. In other words, through this process, you can check at what point in time development work is being performed.

Next, in step S232, the workable date calculated by comparing the weather forecast calculated for each detailed meteorological index with the work stop criteria set in advance for each detailed task is used to calculate from the work start date for each detailed task, and the work end date for each detailed task is derived can do. As there are forecast values of the weather indicators derived earlier for each day, it can be determined whether the work can proceed by linking it with the work stop criteria, and through this, it is possible to determine whether the work can proceed, For example, it may be a unit of 5 days to a unit of 10 days), it is possible to calculate the available days (working days) in which the work is possible. Therefore, if the available work days are reduced due to bad weather, the work end date calculated from the work start date may be later than expected due to work delay.

Subsequently, in step S233, the expected end date of the initial work plan may be derived by sequentially connecting the work end dates for each detailed work in consideration of the time-series work order. In this process, the individual processes that can be deferred are sequentially linked to obtain an expected end date that predicts when the initial work plan will end under the currently anticipated weather conditions.

That is, by using the weather data predicted through the above series of processes, it is possible to calculate the construction period and the number of workers by type of work, and to calculate the number of workable days by applying the general construction standard specification and rules on occupational safety and health standards.

7 is a view illustrating a work stop standard for each detailed work according to the type of work.

As previously introduced, the meteorological indices used at the construction site are different from the overall meteorological indices observed by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and there are meteorological indices of interest in the construction process. For example, in the case of concrete work, the calculation of the number of days unavailable to work applying the general standard specification for civil engineering works is stopped when the temperature is below 0℃ or above 30℃. In addition, in the case of asphalt concrete pavement work, work is stopped when the temperature is below 5℃. Furthermore, when calculating the number of days unavailable to work to which the rules for occupational safety and health standards are applied, in the case of a strong wind with an instantaneous wind speed exceeding 10 m/s, work suspension is the standard.

Therefore, by comparing the weather forecast value calculated for each detailed weather index according to an embodiment of the present invention and the work stop criteria set in advance for each detailed task, the workable days calculated by using the available work days are counted from the work start date for each detailed task, and the work end date for each detailed task In deriving , the work stop criteria are determined from the work stop ranges for each detailed work according to a plurality of work types collected for detailed weather indicators, but it is preferable to designate the work stop range by separating external and internal work for each detailed work .

Referring to FIG. 7 , it can be seen that the external construction and the internal construction are separated according to the work for each process, and the work stop criteria according to the detailed weather indicators are different. For example, in the case of rainfall (rain), snowfall (snow), and wind speed, it can be seen that differentiated standards are presented according to indoor and outdoor conditions, whereas in the case of temperature and humidity, the same standard is applied both indoors and outdoors. In this way, separate external and internal construction works for detailed work, but by setting different criteria for suspending work for each, schedule adjustment in case of failure to comply with the initially scheduled construction completion time due to the influence of bad weather is more flexible can be applied This is because there is no reason to suspend the entire construction project solely due to the worsening of the weather condition, which is commonly referred to as bad weather. Referring to FIG. 7 , for example, in the case of 'light foam concrete construction', work can be performed regardless of a heavy rain situation, because the work is limited only by temperature. Therefore, the detailed work progresses by subdividing the environmental constraints for each detailed work constituting one construction work, and classifying whether the work is inside or outside, and judging each constraint in connection with the predicted weather indices. You can make more precise decisions about whether or not this is possible.

FIG. 8 is a view for explaining a process of deferring non-overlapping areas from a plurality of work stop ranges.

The work stoppage standards proposed by the embodiments of the present invention do not exist in a single legal or agreed standard. There are standards tracked by many construction companies based on their own experiences, and there are also standards accumulated from common perceptions in the industry. Therefore, the work cessation standards may be partially different for each work subject, skill level, and even region.

Embodiments of the present invention collect a plurality of work stoppage standards from various sources, and compare/accumulate them to derive one work stop standard. In this process, there was a problem about how to handle the inconsistent range, and in FIG. 8 , in addition to the classification corresponding to 'workable' and 'work impossible', from the different detailed criteria of a plurality of work stop standards 810, A section corresponding to 'work reservation' was derived. Referring to Fig. 8 (a), three work stop criteria for concrete pouring are exemplified, and it can be seen that there is a difference in rainfall (rain) and humidity, respectively. Now, in FIG. 8 (b), the standards of workable and impossible are set for the overlapping numerical sections with respect to rainfall (rain) and humidity, but reserved sections 821 and 822 for the area where the work stop range does not overlap It is configured so that it can respond flexibly according to the judgment of the field when scheduling adjustments.

In summary, the work stop criteria are determined from the work stop range for each detailed work according to the plurality of work types collected for detailed weather indicators, but the work stop range is specified by separating the external and internal work for each detailed work, and at least one work For the area where the stopping range does not overlap, the adjustment range was set for judging whether or not work is possible according to the work area or the skill level of the worker.

9 is a diagram illustrating a result of determining whether work is possible for each detailed task according to a weather forecast value. Previously, three classification criteria of 'work reservation' were set by adding the work stop criteria to 'work possible' and 'work impossible' through FIG. did For example, it can be confirmed that work is impossible on 7/9 (Thu) for 'pilling driving', while it can be confirmed that work is reserved for 'welding'. Therefore, a site with skilled workers will be able to flexibly decide whether to proceed with the 'welding' operation according to the suggested climate index.

10 is a diagram illustrating a calculation result of workable days for each detailed task. If it is determined whether work is possible for each detailed task according to the weather forecast value, and a final decision is made on the 'work reservation' item, the workable days for each detailed task can be calculated for each sub-section. 10 exemplifies the calculation of the number of workable days on a monthly basis.

11 is a diagram illustrating a process of determining whether or not a target end date is complied with in consideration of a time-series work sequence and whether work is possible according to a weather forecast value. Referring to FIG. 11 , detailed work is specified for each work type, and a schedule for performing each work is determined according to a work plan established by connecting them in time series. In addition, weather forecast values for the day were derived and presented together with detailed weather indicators. According to the progress of time, when the scheduled date of 'concrete pouring' was reached while each work satisfies the work stop criteria and was proceeding normally, it was detected that it met the work stop criteria according to the weather forecast value. Accordingly, it can be confirmed that a typical task delay 1110 occurs, and subsequent tasks are delayed so that the final task does not comply with the target end date and passes 1120 . In this case, it may be judged that schedule adjustment is necessary to comply with the target end date, but it has already been emphasized that the cause cannot be collectively referred to as just bad weather. That is, since the work stop criteria that must be satisfied for each detailed job are different, it is necessary to individually observe the weather indicators set in the work stop criteria corresponding to each job, and accordingly, more sophisticated schedule adjustment is possible.

12 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process (step S240) of deriving insufficient required man-hours in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In step S241, when the previously derived expected end date is later than the target end date, a difference between the expected end date and the target end date is calculated. Then, in step S242, it is possible to derive the insufficient required man-hours from the product of the required work days corresponding to the calculated difference and the number of required workers based on the standard manpower. Since the required man-hour refers to the amount of work that is currently expected to be required to meet the target end date, it can be determined from the combination of the unit work capacity that a standard man can perform and the input time/date.

13 is a flowchart illustrating in more detail a process (step S250) of adjusting an initial work plan in a detailed work unit in the process management method of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In step S251, a candidate plan for at least one detailed task is generated from the combination of the number of additional workers and additional working days available for the derived required man-hours. In this process, the combination of the number of additional workers and additional work days is derived in consideration of the work cessation criteria separated by outdoor work and indoor work, in which the type of detailed work is set in advance for each detailed work within a period adjacent to the work start date of the detailed work. It is determined whether there is a job that satisfies the job cessation criteria and the order can be changed, or whether there is a job that satisfies the job cessation criteria and can be replaced according to the weather forecast value of the job start date of the detailed job. Candidate plans according to substitution can be created. In other words, the criteria for stopping work that can be applied according to the type of work are differentiated, and candidates that can make up for the current work delay are derived by applying the detailed meteorological indicators suggested by the weather forecasts. In this case, it is possible to generate a rich candidate group by examining whether the order of the tasks can be changed or whether the initially set task can be replaced with another task.

In step S251, a representative profit and loss value is calculated from a change in cost and a change in schedule for the candidate plan generated in step S251 to match the candidate plan. In this process, with respect to the generated candidate plan, the cost according to the number of workers changed to satisfy the required man-hours, the cost according to the skill level of the worker, and the cost profit/loss value calculated from the change in the cost according to the replacement of the job and the schedule delay Calculates a fixed profit and loss value according to , and by linearly combining the calculated profit and loss value and the fixed profit and loss value, a representative profit and loss value that considers changes in cost and schedule at the same time is calculated and matched with the candidate plan and stored. In an embodiment of the present invention, an index of 'representative value of profit and loss' is provided as a criterion for determining which candidate is the most appropriate candidate among the previously generated candidate plans.

As a criterion for judging the adequacy of the candidate plan, it is possible to simply look at whether the initial target end date can be met. can be an option. On the other hand, there may be situations where it is necessary to make a profit in the period even at the expense of a loss in costs. Therefore, it was necessary to introduce an index indicating each profit or loss while simultaneously observing changes in cost and schedule. In general, it is easy to calculate the increase or decrease of cost due to plan change or schedule adjustment, but it is not easy to quantify profit and loss according to schedule change independently and quantitatively. Accordingly, in one embodiment of the present invention, the 'loss of profit and loss' is obtained by linearly combining the profit and loss of cost and the profit and loss of schedule change (meaning that the gain of the period due to the early completion of the schedule or the loss of the period due to the delay is digitized.) A new indicator called 'representative value' was developed.

Here, the cost/loss value is to be calculated as a changed value (increase/decrease value of cost) or degree (increase/decrease ratio of cost) of the cost of the detailed work included in the corresponding candidate plan based on the cost of the detailed work included in the initial work plan. can In addition, the constant profit and loss value is a changed value (increase/decrease value of period) or degree (increase/decrease ratio of period) of the execution period of the detailed task included in the corresponding candidate plan based on the execution period of the detailed task included in the initial work plan. can be calculated. Furthermore, a is a weight for the cost/loss value, and b is a weight for a constant hand/loss value, and it is preferable that the sum of both is maintained at a constant value. For convenience of implementation, each of a and b may be configured to be greater than '0' and set to a value less than '1' so that the sum of both is '1'. That is, the representative value of profit and loss is calculated by differentially considering the degree of profit and loss according to the cost change and the degree of profit and loss according to the schedule change by setting complementary weights according to the user's selection for each of the cost profit and loss value and the fixed profit and loss value. It is desirable to induce

Now, in step S253, the initial work plan may be adjusted in a detailed work unit by using the candidate plan matched with the representative profit/loss value. If a plurality of candidate plans are generated, the initial work plan may be adjusted in a detailed work unit by selecting a candidate plan in which the degree of damage is minimized according to the calculated representative value of profit and loss. That is, it is possible to determine which candidate plan among a plurality of candidates meets the needs of the user (the building owner) as a quantitative numerical value. In this case, the user's request is based on the user's point of view regarding cost (eg, how sensitively it can accommodate an increase in cost) and the user's point of view regarding the schedule (eg, how sensitively it can accommodate the delay of the schedule). It can be determined through the above Equation 1 to mean).

14 is a view for explaining factors to be considered in the process of deriving an adjusted work plan and a representative profit/loss value, and the processing process of FIG. 13 is visually expressed.

First, it is assumed that the initial work plan 1410 is established, and the delay due to detailed tasks that do not meet the work stop standard 1451 according to the weather forecast 1452 occurs 1420 and it is impossible to comply with the target end date. . Accordingly, a new candidate plan 1430 is derived in consideration of the weather prediction value 1452 and the work stoppage criterion 1451 together. That is, the combination of the number of additional workers and additional work days is derived by considering the work stop criteria separated by the type of detailed work for outdoor work and indoor work. It is determined whether there is a job that satisfies the criteria and can change the order, or whether there is a job that satisfies the above job stop criteria and can be replaced according to the weather forecast value of the job start date of the detailed job. Candidate plans can be created according to the

Next, each of the candidates 1470 is determined from a combination of the number of additional workers and additional working days, and a profit and loss representative value 1480 according to Equation 1 is calculated and matched from the corresponding cost and schedule change. With respect to the generated candidate plan, the cost according to the number of workers changed to satisfy the required man-hours, the cost according to the skill level of the worker, and the cost profit/loss value calculated from the change in the cost according to the replacement of the job, and the constant profit and loss due to the delay of the schedule A value is calculated, and by linearly combining the calculated cost/loss value and the fixed profit/loss value, a representative profit/loss value that considers changes in cost and schedule at the same time is calculated and matched with the candidate plan and stored. At this time, by setting complementary weights for each of the cost profit and loss value and the fixed profit and loss value according to the user's selection, the degree of profit and loss according to the cost change and the degree of profit and loss according to the schedule change are differentially considered, and the representative profit and loss value It is preferable to calculate

Now, one candidate plan may be selected based on the profit and loss representative value 1480 to generate an adjusted work plan 1490 . When a plurality of candidate plans are generated, the initial work plan may be adjusted in a detailed work unit by selecting a candidate plan in which the degree of damage is minimized according to the calculated representative value of profit and loss.

15 is a block diagram illustrating a process management system 50 based on weather prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention, wherein each step of FIG. 2 is reconstructed in terms of hardware configuration. Therefore, in order to avoid duplication of description, here, only the outline will be outlined by focusing on the function and operation of each configuration.

The input unit 10 of the process management system 50 may receive the climate data for a preset period and store it in the database 30, and also receive a plurality of work stoppage criteria to generate an integrated work stoppage standard, and the database ( 30) can be stored.

The processing unit 20 of the process management system 50 establishes an initial work plan including the required number of work days for each work type with respect to the target construction project, and weathers by detailed meteorological indicators of climate data for a preset period based on the construction start date Calculate the predicted value. Then, the processing unit 20 derives the expected end date of the initial work plan by using the calculated weather forecast value while considering the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan, and the derived expected end date and initially set The required man-hours insufficient are derived by comparing the target end dates of the work plans, and the initial work plan is adjusted in a detailed work unit by using the combination of the number of additional workers and the additional work days available for the required man-hours.

According to the above-described embodiments of the present invention, by predicting the weather based on public meteorological data during the construction period using multiple regression analysis designed to correspond to individual weather indicators of work suspension criteria set in advance for each detailed work according to the construction type, The order is changed by facilitating flexible schedule management of large-scale clients, and estimating delays in the construction process by comparing work stop criteria for each detailed work according to the weather forecast calculated for each detailed meteorological index, and deriving insufficient man-hours according to the delay. Alternatively, it is possible to create a candidate plan according to work substitution, but select a candidate plan that minimizes damage and adjust the initial work plan into detailed work units to minimize unnecessary construction period waste. It is possible to induce the selection of an optimal candidate plan that meets the needs of a plurality of clients by calculating the profit and loss representative value by considering the profit and loss of both.

Meanwhile, embodiments of the present invention can be implemented as computer-readable codes on a computer-readable recording medium. The computer-readable recording medium includes all types of recording devices in which data readable by a computer system is stored.

Examples of the computer-readable recording medium include ROM, RAM, CD-ROM, magnetic tape, floppy disk, optical data storage device, and the like. In addition, the computer-readable recording medium is distributed in a computer system connected to a network, so that the computer-readable code can be stored and executed in a distributed manner. And functional programs, codes, and code segments for implementing the present invention can be easily inferred by programmers in the technical field to which the present invention pertains.

In the above, various embodiments of the present invention have been mainly reviewed. Those of ordinary skill in the art to which the present invention pertains will understand that the present invention can be implemented in modified forms without departing from the essential characteristics of the present invention. Therefore, the disclosed embodiments are to be considered in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense. The scope of the present invention is indicated in the claims rather than the foregoing description, and all differences within the scope equivalent thereto should be construed as being included in the present invention.

410, 810, 1451: Criteria for stopping work
821, 822: Adjustment range (for work hold)
1410: Initial work plan
1420: Deferred work plan
1430, 1470: Candidate Plan
1452: weather forecast
1480: Profit and loss representative value
1490: Coordinated work plan
50: process control system
10: input
20: processing unit
30: Database

Claims (10)

(a) establishing, by the process management system, an initial work plan including the required number of working days for each type of construction for the target construction project;
(b) calculating, by the process management system, a weather forecast value for each detailed meteorological index of the climate data for a preset period based on the construction start date;
(c) deriving, by the process management system, an expected end date of the initial work plan by using the calculated weather forecast value while considering the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan;
(d) deriving insufficient required man-hours by comparing the expected end date derived by the process management system with the target end date of the initially set work plan; and
(e) adjusting, by the process management system, the initial work plan to a detailed work unit by using a combination of the number of additional workers and additional work days available for the required number of hours; including, a process control method. The method of claim 1,
The step (b) is,
(b1) setting a multiple regression function by selecting a plurality of independent variables related to detailed meteorological indicators, which are dependent variables, from conventional climate data collected for a preset period based on the construction start date;
(b2) determining a regression coefficient by deriving an objective function that minimizes the error of the set multiple regression function; and
(b3) calculating a weather forecast value for the preset period for each detailed weather index through multiple regression analysis according to the determined regression coefficient;
The plurality of independent variables are set to correspond to individual meteorological indicators of the work stoppage criteria set in advance for each detailed work according to the type of work, the process management method. The method of claim 1,
Step (c) is,
(c1) setting a work start date for each detailed work according to the type of work according to the time-series work sequence included in the initial work plan;
(c2) deriving a work end date for each detailed task by counting from the work start date for each detailed task using the available workable days calculated by comparing the weather forecast calculated for each detailed meteorological index with a work stop criterion set in advance for each detailed task; and
(c3) deriving the expected end date of the initial work plan by sequentially connecting work end dates for each detailed work in consideration of the time-series work sequence; 4. The method of claim 3,
The step (c2) is,
Determine the work stop criteria from the work stop range for each detailed work according to the plurality of work types collected for detailed weather indicators, but specify the work stop range by separating external and internal work for each detailed work, and at least one work stop range is A process control method for setting an adjustment range for determining whether work is possible with respect to a non-overlapping area based on a work area or the skill level of a worker. The method of claim 1,
Step (d) is,
(d1) calculating a difference between the expected end date and the target end date when the derived expected end date is later than the target end date; and
(d2) deriving insufficient required man-hours from the product of the number of required workers based on the number of required workers and standard manpower corresponding to the calculated difference; including, a process control method. The method of claim 1,
Step (e) is,
(e1) generating a candidate plan for at least one detailed task from a combination of the number of additional workers and additional working days available for the derived required man-hours;
(e2) matching with the candidate plan by calculating a profit and loss representative value from the change in cost and schedule change for the generated candidate plan; and
(e3) adjusting the initial work plan in a detailed work unit by using the candidate plan matched with the profit and loss representative value; including, a process management method. 7. The method of claim 6,
The step (e1) is,
The combination of the number of additional workers and additional working days is derived in consideration of the work cessation criteria, where the type of detailed work is separated by outdoor work and indoor work,
Whether there is a task that satisfies the preset work cessation criteria for each detailed task and whose order can be changed within a period adjacent to the work start date of the detailed task, or satisfies the task cessation criterion according to the weather forecast value of the work start date of the detailed task, and replacement is not possible A process control method for determining whether a possible operation exists and generating a candidate plan for reordering or replacing operations. 7. The method of claim 6,
Step (e2) is,
With respect to the generated candidate plan, the cost according to the number of workers changed to satisfy the required man-hours, the cost according to the worker's skill level, and the cost profit/loss value calculated from the change in the cost according to the replacement of the job, and the constant profit and loss due to the delay of the schedule calculate the value,
By linearly combining the calculated cost/loss value and the fixed profit/loss value, a representative profit/loss value that considers changes in cost and schedule at the same time is calculated and matched with the candidate plan and stored. 9. The method of claim 8,
Step (e2) is,
Complementary weights are set for each of the cost profit and loss value and the constant profit and loss value according to the user's selection, thereby calculating the representative profit and loss value by differentially considering the degree of profit and loss according to the change in cost and the degree of profit and loss according to the schedule change. To do, process control method. 7. The method of claim 6,
Step (e3) is,
When a plurality of candidate plans are generated, the initial work plan is adjusted in detailed work units by selecting a candidate plan in which the degree of damage is minimized according to the calculated representative value of profit and loss.

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