KR20200076497A - Method for realizing human resource modeling simulator with human resource demand predicting modeling mechanism in shipbuilding industry - Google Patents

Abstract

Disclosed is a method for realizing a human resource modeling simulator applying a modeling technique for predicting a human resource demand in a shipbuilding industry. The method comprises the steps of: reviewing reference information; updating job information; investigating importance of work; receiving a design/production time plan; executing a human resource modeling simulator by reflecting the reference information, the job information, and the time plan to a modeling technique for predicting a human resource demand for each job group; and deriving company-wide human resource demand-supply status information and human resource excess and shortage information for each job/work type in accordance with a result of executing the human source modeling simulator. Therefore, strategic and systematic human resource management can be performed through preemptive predictive analysis of mid- to long-term human resource demand-supply changes.

Description

METHOD FOR REALIZING HUMAN RESOURCE MODELING SIMULATOR WITH HUMAN RESOURCE DEMAND PREDICTING MODELING MECHANISM IN SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY}

The present invention relates to a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator, and more specifically, to apply a modeling technique for manpower demand forecasting in shipbuilding industry to efficiently perform strategic and systematic manpower management through preemptive predictive analysis on mid- to long-term manpower demand-supply changes. It is related to a method of implementing a manpower modeling simulator.

Medium and long-term workforce planning and manpower operation by accurately predicting manpower demand-supply changes from the viewpoint of large-scale manpower and equipment/equipment input in the human resources field of the shipbuilding industry that produces various marine transportation structures of ships, marine or special ships It is very important to develop a plan.

In the related art, as shown in FIG. 1, in order to predict the need for manpower planning, the manpower requirements of each organization are received (S10), and the manpower of the received organizations is collectively reviewed for feasibility (S20) and management plan Considering and adjusting the manpower requirements for each organization in consideration (S30), and deriving the manpower scale through the adjusted manpower requirements (S40).

For example, the conventional medium-term workforce plan analyzes the shortage of manpower per organizational unit based on the size of manpower received by each organizational unit and the supply scale reflecting the decrease in manpower of retirement, and the new plan and the operation plan of manpower movement To this end, for this purpose, the current workforce by organizational unit and requests for the necessary workforce will be received in the future, and the total workforce will be reviewed to predict the workforce size.

However, since the size of the received workforce is derived by organizational unit, there is a limitation in the consistency when predicting the requirements by job unit, and reliability can be secured by the size of the workforce that does not take into account the management environment of design, production time, and order target. Can't.

In other words, it cannot be used as a reliable workforce plan because it is not sufficiently considered for the management environment, and it is limited to organizational units, rather than to calculate the workforce or workforce size. have.

Korean Registered Patent Publication No. 1152280 (2012.05.25) Korean Registered Patent Publication No. 1153070 (2012.05.29) Korean Patent Publication No. 2004-0049106 (2004.06.11)

The technical problem to be achieved by the idea of the present invention is to use the specialized modeling technique that reflects the characteristics of the job group based on the mid- to long-term management plan and management selection, to predict the manpower demand for shipbuilding industry. It is to provide an implementation method of applied human modeling simulator.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention, reviewing the reference information; Updating job information; Examining the importance of work; Receiving a design/production time plan; Executing the workforce modeling simulator by reflecting the reference information, the job information and the training plan in a workforce prediction modeling technique for each job group; And deriving enterprise-wide manpower demand-supply status information and manpower shortage information according to the execution result of the manpower modeling simulator; and providing a manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique.

Here, in the step of reviewing the reference information, a mid-term management declaration may be received, a design/production model may be reviewed, a type-job matching criterion may be checked, and a time-to-person conversion standard may be reviewed.

In addition, the modeling technique for predicting manpower demand can be applied according to job characteristics of office workers and production workers by job group.

In addition, the office workers are classified into the characteristics of project direct input personnel and non-project direct input personnel, and the production personnel are classified into project direct input personnel, project indirect input personnel, and project support personnel. Project manpower modeling techniques to perform manpower forecasting based on the mid-term management selection and the design/production time planning, modeling techniques to utilize production time to perform manpower forecasting based on large production time, and manpower forecasting based on facility operation plan The facility/equipment operation modeling technique that is performed and the business value-based modeling technique that performs workforce prediction by analyzing business value can be applied.

In addition, according to the project manpower modeling technique, the project direct input manpower of the office worker and the direct project manpower of the production worker apply the medium-term management selection and the design/production time schedule to the time-to-workforce conversion standard, and the required manpower. Can be derived.

In addition, the formula for deriving the required manpower based on the hour-to-manpower conversion standard, the project direct input manpower is derived by {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly OT) * design construction yield} The design construction work rate is defined as the design workforce's work rate for drawing a pure design drawing, and the project's direct workforce is {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly working days + monthly OT) * Efficiency * (1-idle attendance rate)}, the efficiency is defined as (target number / actual input time * 100), and idle attendance rate is defined as (idle time / normal total time * 100) Can be.

In addition, according to the manpower modeling technique that utilizes the production time, the project indirect input manpower and project support manpower are manpower required by the manpower demand regression model based on the large production time for each job in the mid-term management chart. Can be derived.

In addition, the workforce demand regression model may apply any one of a mineral oil regression model, a neutral regression model, and a conservative regression model according to the scale of future production.

In addition, by the facility/equipment operation modeling technique, the project support manpower of the production worker can derive the required manpower based on the required manpower per equipment/equipment by reflecting the facility/equipment operation plan in the mid-term management schedule.

In addition, by the work value-based modeling technique, the non-direct project workforce of the office worker can derive the required workforce for each appropriate position through analysis of individual work weight and work value for each organizational unit.

In addition, the manpower increase by year can be reflected in order to change the target manpower structure compared to the current manpower structure by the derived manpower.

In addition, the supply manpower by the manpower supply prediction modeling technique can be derived by (Hyundai Employee + Recruitment Employee-Retirement Employee ± Promotion Employee).

In addition, the manpower modeling simulator, according to the setting of any one or more of the manpower classification of business division, office or production, manpower requirements analysis standards, job classification, and organizational division of direct or partner companies, mid-term job / industry-specific manpower demand -Any one or more of supply status information, manpower shortage, and manpower structure information can be displayed in graphs and figures.

In addition, by utilizing any one or more of the above-mentioned company-wide workforce demand-supply status information, manpower shortage, and manpower structure information, a workforce management plan for any one or more of recruitment, movement, and relocation of workforce by job/type in the future It can be used as information.

In addition, it is possible to further analyze the labor cost by reflecting the manpower shortage information and the manpower structure information, and analyze the labor cost impact according to the manpower operation plan information.

According to the present invention, there is an effect capable of efficiently performing strategic and systematic workforce management through preemptive predictive analysis of mid- to long-term workforce demand-supply change.

In addition, it is possible to accurately estimate the required manpower by job/type by using the modeling technique specialized for each job group in the medium-term unit, improve the reliability of the demand-supply scale of each job group, and provide effective workforce standard information to reduce the shortage. There is.

Furthermore, it has the effect of improving the consistency of the workforce size, and accurately predicting the microscopic workforce size of each job/industrial unit by interlocking with the design/production time and the order size management environment.

Figure 1 shows a flow chart of a medium-term workforce planning according to the prior art.
2 is a flowchart illustrating a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using a shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 illustrates a mid-term management chart of a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique.
Figure 4 is a structure of the manpower demand prediction modeling technique of the manpower modeling simulator implementation method to which the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of Fig. 2 is applied.
FIG. 5 illustrates the time-to-person conversion standard of a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique.
FIG. 6 is a graph showing a regression model of manpower demand of the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of FIG. 2.
FIG. 7 exemplifies the operating manpower standard per facility/equipment of the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique.
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of a work value period modeling technique of a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of FIG. 2.
FIG. 9 illustrates the manpower modeling simulator interface screen of the manpower modeling simulator implementation method to which the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique is applied.
FIG. 10 is a schematic diagram of the manpower operation plan of the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique.

Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings so that those skilled in the art to which the present invention pertains can easily practice. The present invention can be implemented in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein.

Figure 2 shows a flow chart of a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique according to an embodiment of the present invention, and Figure 3 is a shipbuilding industry manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique Illustrating the mid-term management election, FIG. 4 is a structuralization of the manpower demand prediction modeling technique of the method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of FIG. 2, and FIG. 5 is a shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of FIG. An example of the time-to-workforce conversion criteria of the method for implementing a workforce modeling simulator by applying is, FIG. 6 is a graph showing a workforce demand regression model of the method for implementing a workforce modeling simulator using the predictive modeling technique for shipbuilding industry in FIG. Figure 7 illustrates the manpower model simulator implementation method applied to the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of Figure 2 illustrates the operating manpower standards per facility/equipment, and Figure 8 illustrates the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique of Figure 2 Figure 9 is a schematic diagram of the work value period modeling technique, Figure 9 is an illustration of the manpower modeling simulator interface screen of the method of implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower prediction modeling technique of Figure 2, and Figure 10 is a shipbuilding manpower demand of Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the workforce planning of the workforce modeling simulator implementation method using the predictive modeling technique.

2 to 10, a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator to which a shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied, as a whole, a reference information review step (S110) and a job information update step (S120). It consists of a work importance investigation step (S130), a design/production time schedule acceptance step (S140), a workforce modeling simulator execution step (S150), and a workforce information derivation step (S160), which is used to change the demand and supply for mid- to long-term workforce. The main objective is to conduct strategic and systematic workforce management through preemptive predictive analysis.

First, in the standard information review step (S110), the mid-term management selection, which is the standard information for predicting manpower demand modeling, is received, the design/production model is reviewed, the job system is checked, and the job-job matching criteria are checked, Review the time-to-workforce conversion criteria.

Here, as shown in FIG. 3, the mid-term management chart can be subdivided into standard projects (linear) according to the business division of merchant ships, oceans, and special ships to provide summary information for each year.

Next, in the job information update step (S120), the job information for each individual for calculating the size of the supply manpower is updated, and the job system information of all employees is updated to improve the consistency of the supply manpower for each job unit.

Next, in the task importance investigation step (S130), the task importance is investigated to derive the demand-supply manpower for the job group based on the business value of management or personnel for non-project (regardless of project) duties.

Next, in the design/production time plan acceptance step (S140), a mid-term time plan of design/production for performing a project job is received, and a design and production engineering unit time plan that is directly input to the project is received.

Next, in the manpower modeling simulator execution step (S150 ), the manpower modeling simulator is executed by reflecting the aforementioned reference information, job information, and training plan in a specialized manpower demand prediction modeling technique for each job group.

For example, as shown in [Table 1] below, four types of manpower demand prediction modeling techniques can be applied according to job characteristics of office workers and production workers by job group.

Occupational characteristics Human resource demand prediction modeling Office work Production Use of human resource forecasting Name of workforce modeling technique PJT manpower Non-PJT manpower Direct An indirect position Support jobs ∨ ∨ Management Selection/Time Plan project ∨ ∨ Production time (large industrial type) Production use Facility operation plan Equipment/equipment operation ∨ Business Value Analysis Business value base

Here, the project direct input manpower (PJT manpower) includes design, procurement, production management, quality and business management manpower, and the project non-direct manpower (non-PJT manpower) includes sales, management support, and R&D manpower. do.

In addition, the direct input manpower (direct direct) of the project of production includes welding, mounting, processing, mounting, painting and commissioning manpower, and the indirect input manpower (direct indirect) includes drawing, environmental management and welfare support manpower, The support staff (support staff) includes the crane operation, signal, equipment repair and tug boat operation personnel that operate the main facilities or equipment supporting the project.

In other words, the office workers are classified into project direct input workers and project non-direct input workers, and production workers are divided into project direct input workers, project indirect input workers, and project support workers.

Accordingly, as shown in FIG. 4, the manpower demand prediction modeling technique is based on the characteristics classification described above, the project manpower modeling technique that performs manpower forecasting according to the mid-term management selection and design/production time planning, and the production time of the large-scale industry The production-use modeling technique for performing human resource forecasting, the facility/equipment operation modeling technique for performing human resource prediction based on the facility operation plan, and the business value-based modeling technique for performing human resource prediction by business value analysis are applied.

Specifically, first, by the project manpower modeling technique, the required manpower is predicted based on the manpower input model and input time by type. The project direct input manpower of the office workers and the project direct manpower of the production workers are selected for mid-term management selection and design. / You can derive required manpower by applying the production time plan to the time-to-workforce conversion standard.

Here, the direct input manpower of the project by the required manpower derivation formula based on the hour-to-manpower conversion criteria illustrated in FIG. 5 is {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly OT) * design construction yield It is derived by }, and the design construction yield is defined as the yield of design workforce drawing pure design drawings.

In addition, the direct input manpower of the project for production workers is derived by {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly OT} * efficiency * (1-idle attendance rate)}, and the efficiency is (target number / It can be defined as the actual input hours * 100), and the idle attendance rate can be defined as (idle hours / normal total hours * 100).

On the other hand, the design construction time rate excludes the number of hours of order meetings, meetings, or training, and the idle attendance rate excludes the ratio of the number of hours in the waiting due to training, weather relations, or safety accidents from normal total hours. it means.

Second, based on the manpower modeling technique using production time, a regression model between production times with high correlation with the current supply manpower of the target job is developed based on the main production time, which is a key manpower driver that affects the required manpower for each job. In order to derive the required manpower, the project indirect input manpower and project support manpower can be derived from the manpower demand regression model based on the large production time of each job in the mid-term management chart.

For example, as shown in FIG. 6, a regression model for manpower demand between production hours of a rear chairman who has a high correlation with the job of material receipt management can be derived, which improves inefficiency due to business simplification and work interference. Considering, the conservative regression model (②) can be applied to the workforce regression model. However, this regression model can be converted to a mineral heritage (②) or neutral (①) model and applied according to the increase in the order target and production volume by business unit according to the remaining order. Here, the production time of the trailing chairman is provided from the production time in the management selection. In other words, as a workforce demand regression model, various regression models can be applied depending on the size of production, such as order targets and order backlogs. Specifically, any of the mineral oil regression model, neutral regression model, and conservative regression model can be applied. Can.

For reference, in the regression model of manpower demand, the correlation between the monthly production time as an independent variable and the number of people (required personnel) as a dependent variable is as follows: {number of unmanaged personnel = (α * production time of subsequent chairman + β)} The defined and conservative regression model is a workforce model derived based on the lower limit by simplifying to the main product center and reflecting the inefficiency improvement caused by work interference.

Third, the equipment/equipment operation modeling technique predicts manpower demand based on the manpower standards required for operation per equipment/equipment as shown in Fig. 7, and the project support manpower of production workers is the equipment/equipment in the mid-term management charter. By reflecting the operation plan, the required manpower can be derived based on the required manpower per facility/equipment.

Here, the operating manpower standard per facility/equipment in FIG. 7 defines standard personnel for each job according to the facility/equipment.

Fourth, according to the work value-based modeling technique, the non-direct project workforce of the office worker performing the support work can derive the required workforce for each appropriate position through analysis of the work weight and work value of each organizational unit.

Here, as illustrated in FIG. 8, the increase or decrease in manpower by year may be reflected in order to change the target manpower structure (manpower demand by year) compared to the current manpower structure by the derived manpower (manpower demand).

For example, the mid-term required manpower, which is the target manpower structure for the manager's position, is derived as one person, so that Y3=1 can be reflected by the annual manpower increase of ±1 from Y1=3.

Finally, in the step of deriving manpower information (S160), the company-wide manpower demand-supply status information and manpower shortage information according to job/type of work are derived according to the execution result of the manpower modeling simulator.

On the other hand, the supply manpower by the manpower supply prediction modeling technique can be derived by (Hyundai Employee + Recruitment Employee-Retirement Employee ± Promotion Employee).

That is, as shown in FIG. 9, the manpower modeling simulator is based on the conditions of the business division, the division of office workers or production workers, the analysis of manpower requirements of the direct or partner companies, the classification of jobs, and/or organizational divisions. The company-wide workforce demand-supply status information, workforce shortage, and/or workforce structure (available manpower) information can be displayed and provided in graphs and figures.

That is, in order to check the size of the workforce by the workforce modeling simulator, setting and executing the conditions of the business/occupation can provide the required, supply and/or overage information of the workforce according to the set conditions.

On the other hand, as shown in Figure 10, by using the previous job / industry-wide workforce demand-supply status information, manpower shortage information, and / or manpower structure information, recruitment, movement and / or relocation of the workforce by job / industry in the future It can be used as a workforce planning information for, for example, to clarify the movement and/or (re)deployment process to solve the shortage of manpower, improve the workforce structure through mitigation of high job positions, and duplicate and inefficient work between office workers and production workers. Can be eliminated, work efficiency can be improved by improving the working method, and workforce efficiency can be strengthened through production support and indirect outsourcing.

In addition, it is possible to analyze the labor cost efficiency according to the size of the workforce and changes in the workforce structure, to analyze the labor cost additionally by reflecting the labor shortage information and the workforce structure information, and to analyze the labor cost impact according to the workforce planning information.

Therefore, by constructing a manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique as described above, strategic and systematic manpower operation can be efficiently performed through preemptive predictive analysis on mid- to long-term manpower demand-supply changes. , By accurately predicting the required manpower per job/type by specialized modeling technique for each job group, it is possible to provide efficient manpower standard information to improve the reliability of demand-supply size of each job group and reduce over-sufficiency. It improves the consistency of scale, and can accurately predict the microscopic workforce size of each job/industrial unit by interlocking with the design/production time and the order-scale management environment.

The configurations shown in the embodiments and drawings described in this specification are only one of the most preferred embodiments of the present invention, and do not represent all of the technical spirit of the present invention. It should be understood that there may be water and variations.

S110: Standard information review step S120: Job information update step
S130: work importance investigation step 140: design/production time plan acceptance step
S150: Manpower modeling simulator execution phase
S160: Step of deriving manpower information

Claims (15)

Reviewing the reference information;
Updating job information;
Examining the importance of work;
Receiving a design/production time plan;
Executing the workforce modeling simulator by reflecting the reference information, the job information and the training plan in a workforce prediction modeling technique for each job group; And
The step of deriving the company-wide workforce demand-supply status information and workforce shortage information according to the execution result of the workforce modeling simulator; including, shipbuilding industry workforce modeling simulator implementation method using the predictive modeling technique. According to claim 1,
In the step of reviewing the reference information, the mid-term management declaration is received, the design/production model is reviewed, and the type-job matching criteria are checked, and the time-to-manpower conversion criteria are reviewed. A method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using modeling techniques. According to claim 2,
The manpower demand prediction modeling technique is applied according to the job characteristics of office workers and production workers by job group, a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique. The method of claim 3,
The office workforce is characterized by a project direct input workforce and a project non-direct workforce, and the production workforce is characterized by a project direct input workforce, a project indirect workforce, and a project support workforce.
For each of the above characteristics, the project management modeling technique for performing manpower forecasting based on the mid-term management selection and the design/production time-planning, the modeling technique for production-time utilization performing equipment forecasting for large-scale production time, and equipment operation plan A facility/equipment operation modeling technique for performing human resource forecasting, and a work value-based modeling technique for performing human resource forecasting by analyzing business value analysis. Way. The method of claim 4,
According to the project manpower modeling technique, the project direct input manpower and the project direct manpower of the office worker derive the required manpower by applying the medium-term management selection and the design/production time schedule to the time-to-workforce conversion standard. Characterized in that, the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry demand forecasting modeling technique. The method of claim 5,
Equation for deriving the required manpower based on the hour-to-manpower conversion standard
The project direct input manpower of the office worker is derived by {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly OT) * design construction yields}, and the design construction yields are pure design drawings. Is defined as the yield rate to draw,
The project direct input manpower of the production job is derived by {monthly input hours / (basic working hours * monthly working days + monthly OT) * efficiency * (1-idle attendance rate)}, and the efficiency is (target number / Real time input time * 100), and the idle attendance rate is defined as (idle time / normal total time * 100), characterized in that the shipbuilding industry demand forecasting modeling method applied to the modeling simulator implementation. The method of claim 4,
According to the manpower modeling technique that utilizes the production time, the project indirect input manpower and project support manpower are derived from the manpower demand regression model based on the large production time by job type in the mid-term management selection. Characterized in that, the manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry demand forecasting modeling technique. The method of claim 7,
The manpower demand regression model is characterized by applying one of a mineral oil regression model, a neutral regression model and a conservative regression model according to the scale of future production, and a method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique. The method of claim 4,
The facility/equipment operation modeling technique, characterized in that the project workforce of the production worker, by reflecting the facility/equipment operation plan in the mid-term management schedule, derives the required manpower based on the required manpower per facility/equipment. Manpower modeling simulator implementation method using shipbuilding industry demand forecasting modeling technique. The method of claim 4,
According to the work value-based modeling technique, the non-direct project workforce of the office worker is characterized by deriving the required manpower by appropriate position through analysis of individual work weight and work value for each organizational unit, a modeling technique for predicting demand for shipbuilding manpower. Manpower modeling simulator implementation method. The method of claim 10,
A method for implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique, characterized by reflecting manpower growth by year to change the target manpower structure compared to the current manpower structure by the derived manpower. According to claim 1,
The human resource modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry's manpower demand prediction modeling technique, characterized in that the supply manpower based on the manpower supply prediction modeling technique is derived by (Hyundai + Employment-Retired + Promotion). The method of claim 12,
The manpower modeling simulator provides enterprise-wide manpower demand-supply by job/type of work in the middle term, according to one or more conditions of business division, manpower division of office workers or production workers, manpower requirement analysis standards of direct or partner companies, job division, and organization division A method of implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand prediction modeling technique, characterized by providing one or more of status information, manpower shortage information, and manpower structure information in graphs and figures. The method of claim 13,
By utilizing any one or more of the above-mentioned company-wide workforce demand-supply status information, manpower shortage information, and manpower structure information, as workforce planning information for any one or more of recruitment, movement, and relocation of workforce by job/type in the future Characterized by utilizing, manpower modeling simulator implementation method using the shipbuilding industry demand forecasting modeling technique. The method of claim 14,
A method of implementing a manpower modeling simulator using the shipbuilding industry manpower demand forecasting modeling technique, characterized in that it analyzes the labor cost additionally by reflecting the manpower shortage information and the manpower structure information and analyzes the labor cost impact according to the manpower operation plan information.

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