KR20180060071A - Development of System for Cost-Benefit Model Interface, Using Energy Outlook Model and Integrating Inventory Database - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention provides a cost-benefit model interface system using an energy outlook model and an integrating inventory database (DB). According to the present invention, the cost-benefit model interface system using the energy outlook model and the integrating inventory DB includes: an integrating inventory including a greenhouse gas inventory receiving data from a greenhouse gas information center and an air pollutant inventory receiving data from a clean air policy support system; an energy outlook model estimating final energy consumption of the future using the greenhouse gas inventory and the air pollutant inventory and recalculating the amount of discharge; and a cost-benefit calculation unit calculating the cost-benefit using the integrating inventory and energy outlook model. According to the present invention, the cost-benefit model interface system using the energy outlook model and the integrating inventory DB is proper in Korea to estimate the cost-benefit about degradation of air quality due to an air pollutant and climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Description

[0001] The present invention relates to a cost-benefit model interface system using an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database,

The present invention relates to a cost benefit model interface system utilizing an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database.

Global climate change due to greenhouse gases and deterioration of air quality due to air pollutants are emerging as serious issues, and international research is being actively carried out. In Korea, the cost of climate change and air quality integration management - It is necessary to secure world-class integrated policy-based technology to cope effectively.

In order to effectively establish and effectively implement the government's climate change adaptation policy in response to climate change, it is necessary to have an integrated inventory for rapid, cost-effective, and adaptive policies for greenhouse gas and air pollutants, It is necessary to reduce the national budget by 3%.

In order to evaluate the cost-benefit of climate change due to greenhouse gases and air quality deterioration due to atmospheric pollutants reflecting the domestic and overseas trends, cost-benefit model interface system using energy forecast model and integrated inventory database suitable for Korea .

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a cost benefit model interface system using an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database according to the present invention. The cost benefit model interface system includes data from an air pollutant inventory and a greenhouse gas information center, Integrated inventory that includes the greenhouse gas inventory provided; An energy prospecting model for estimating the future final energy demand using the above-mentioned air pollutant inventory and the greenhouse gas inventory, and estimating the emission amount; And a cost benefit calculator for estimating cost benefits using the integrated inventory and the energy forecast model.

The target material of the air pollutant inventory includes CO, SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5, and the target material of the greenhouse gas inventory includes CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 .

The integrated inventory may include North Korea's emissions information for estimating emissions to Korea.

The energy outlook model can include data from the National Statistical Office (NSO), Korea Development Institute's economic growth prospects, industry research outlook, and international oil price forecasts.

Wherein the cost benefit calculation unit uses an objective function of a cost estimation module for minimizing an overall cost during a modeling period for calculating a cost benefit, the objective function including an annualized investment cost of the facility, The variable operating costs of the facility, the annual carbon cost of the facility and the air pollutant emission allowance, the discount factor for the initial investment cost, and the discount factor for the year-over-year cost.

According to the present invention described above, a cost-benefit model interface system using an energy forecasting model and an integrated inventory database suitable for Korea in order to evaluate the cost-benefit of deteriorating air quality due to climate change and atmospheric pollutants due to greenhouse gases .

1 is a system configuration diagram of a cost-benefit model interface system S using an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is an illustration of a source classification scheme for the air pollutant inventory 111 and the greenhouse gas inventory 112.
FIG. 3 shows a process for constructing the integrated inventory 110 including the North Korean emission information for estimating the amount of emissions to Korea.
FIG. 4 shows a conceptual diagram of the energy forecast model 120. FIG.
5 shows a flow chart of the energy forecasting model.
6 shows the overall system function flow from the input unit 150 to the output unit 140.
FIG. 7 shows a main screen of the inventory section of the user interface program corresponding to the cost-benefit estimating unit 130. FIG.
Figure 8 shows the cost benefit main screen of the cost benefit estimator 130 for estimating the cost benefit by applying the energy view and policy.
FIG. 9 shows a cost benefit result screen of the cost benefit estimating unit 130 that displays the cost benefit estimating results in the form of a table and a graph.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the following description and the accompanying drawings, substantially the same components are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant description will be omitted. In the following description of the present invention, a detailed description of known functions and configurations incorporated herein will be omitted when it may make the subject matter of the present invention rather unclear.

Embodiments of the present invention are provided to more fully describe the present invention to those skilled in the art, and the following embodiments may be modified in various other forms, The present invention is not limited to the following embodiments. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be more thorough and complete, and will fully convey the concept of the invention to those skilled in the art.

The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an," and "the" include plural forms unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. Also, " comprise "and / or" comprising "when used herein should be interpreted as specifying the presence of stated shapes, numbers, steps, operations, elements, elements, and / And does not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, operations, elements, elements, and / or groups. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the listed items.

Although the terms first, second, etc. are used herein to describe various elements, regions and / or regions, it should be understood that these elements, components, regions, layers and / Do. These terms do not imply any particular order, top, bottom, or top row, and are used only to distinguish one member, region, or region from another member, region, or region. Thus, the first member, region or region described below may refer to a second member, region or region without departing from the teachings of the present invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings schematically showing embodiments of the present invention. In the figures, for example, variations in the shape shown may be expected, depending on manufacturing techniques and / or tolerances. Accordingly, embodiments of the present invention should not be construed as limited to any particular shape of the regions illustrated herein, including, for example, variations in shape resulting from manufacturing.

FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram of a cost-benefit model interface system S using an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the integrated inventory 110, 120, a cost-benefit estimator 130, an output unit 140, and an input unit 150.

Integrated inventory 110 includes an air pollutant inventory 111 and a greenhouse gas inventory 112.

The air pollutant inventory (111) receives data from the Criteria Air Pollutant (CAPSS), which consists of 7 substances, consisting of CO, SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5 do.

The emission classification system of the air pollutant inventory (111) is divided into 12 main categories, 58 sub-categories, 334 sub-categories, and 579 sub-categories. The classification system is different from the greenhouse gas inventory (112) Should be preceded.

An example of the emission source classification scheme of the air pollutant inventory 111 and the greenhouse gas inventory 112 is shown in FIG.

The greenhouse gas inventory 112 has a form similar to CAP-CAPSS and is provided by GHG-CAPSS (Green House Gases) operating in GIR (Greenhouse Gas Information Center). The whole country is the domain, and the target substances are CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, the six greenhouse gases.

The source classification system of the greenhouse gas inventory (112) is required to prioritize the integration of the classification system due to differences in the classification system as described above for energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use, and waste.

Examples of integration between CAPSS and GHG-CAPSS are shown in the table below.

The integrated inventory (110) includes information on North Korea's emissions in order to estimate the amount of emissions to Korea, and the process for constructing the inventory is shown in FIG.

The energy forecasting model (120) plays the most important role in determining greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions as a model for predicting future energy demand and estimating future emissions.

Activity forecasts are a key factor in predicting energy demand. Activities include energy demand, added value, solvent use, fertilizer usage, and livestock breeding.

A conceptual diagram of the energy forecast model 120 is shown in FIG.

The basic assumptions (population, economic growth rate, oil price, etc.) that forecast activity data, which are major factors for emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, from the Energy Outlook Model (120) These include the National Statistical Office (NIS) 's population forecasts, Korea Development Institute' s economic growth forecasts, industrial research institutes' industrial structure outlook, and international oil price forecasts.

The energy forecasting model (120) requires forecasts of activity data for each sector of the national economy (industry, transportation, home, commercial, public sector), and in particular, activity data for the final energy outlook of the transportation sector The number of cars, the mileage of cars, and the configuration of vehicles by fuel are applied and energy prospects are implemented including the share of car usage, railroad, public transportation, ship, airplane, and other transportation modes.

5 shows a flow chart of the energy forecasting model described above.

The cost-benefit calculator 130 corresponds to the program UI portion of the present system, the output unit 140 corresponds to the output device of the computer, and the input unit 150 refers to the input device of the computer.

The overall system functional flow from the input unit 150 to the output unit 140 is shown in FIG.

One of the important concepts in the cost estimation module 130 in the cost estimating module 130 is a set. By using the concept of set, it is possible to express various calculations in simple form. The symbols of the main set used in the cost estimation module are set as follows.

: 기준 연도 이후 모델링 연도 집합

: Modeling year set after base year

: 기준연도

: Base year

: 기준연도 이전의 연도 집합

: Year set before the base year

: 부문 집합

: Sector set

: 에너지 기술 또는 후단처리 기술 집합

: A set of energy technologies or tailing technologies

:

의 부분집합으로 에너지 기술 집합

:

A set of energy technologies as a subset of

:

의 부분집합으로 후단처리 기술 집합

:

A set of post-processing techniques as a subset of

: 오염물질(온실가스 또는 대기오염물질) 집합

A set of pollutants (greenhouse gases or air pollutants)

:

의 부분집합으로 온실가스 집합

:

A set of greenhouse gases

:

의 부분집합으로 대기오염물질 집합

:

A set of air pollutants as a subset of

: 에너지서비스 수요 집합

: Energy service demand aggregation

:

의 부분집합으로 최종 에너지서비스 수요 집합

:

A set of final energy service demand sets

:

의 부분집합으로 중간 에너지서비스 수요 집합

:

A set of intermediate energy service demand sets

The objective function of the cost estimating module is the minimization of the total cost during the modeling period for cost benefit estimation. The total cost benefit uses the following formula in the form of discounted base year:

: 에너지기술

와 후단처리기술

를 설치한 설비의 연간화된 투자비용

: Energy Technology

And post-treatment technology

The annualized investment cost of the installed facility

: 에너지기술

와 후단처리기술

를 설치한 설비의 연간 고정운영비용

: Energy Technology

And post-treatment technology

The annual fixed operating costs of the installed facilities

: 에너지기술

와 후단처리기술

를 설치한 설비의 연간 변동운영비용 (연료비용 포함)

: Energy Technology

And post-treatment technology

(Including fuel costs)

: 오염물질 배출에 부과금을 부과할 경우 에너지기술

와 후단처리기술

를 설치한 설비의 연간 탄소비용과 대기오염 배출부과금

: When levying levies on pollutant emissions Energy technology

And post-treatment technology

Annual carbon costs and air pollution emission charges

: 연초 투자비용에 대한 할인계수

: Discount factor for initial investment

: 연중 발생비용에 대한 할인계수

: Discount factor for annual costs

를 사용하여 연초 기준으로 할인하고, 그 외 비용은 연중 중간을 기준으로 하여 할인계수

를 적용한다. 각 식은 다음과 같다.It is assumed that the investment in the facilities in the cost estimating module 130 is made at the beginning of the year, and that other fixed operating expenses, variable operating expenses, carbon costs and air pollution discharge charges occur throughout the year. Therefore,

Discounted at the beginning of the year using the discount rate

Is applied. Each equation is as follows.

The cost estimating module in the cost benefit estimating unit 130 is componentized and integrated into the present system.

The main screen of the inventory section of the user interface program corresponding to the cost advantage calculator 130 for calculating the cost benefit using the integrated inventory 110 and the energy forecast model 120 is shown in FIG.

The parts from (1) to (5) shown in FIG. 7 are described below.

① Screen switching: It performs screen switching function according to user selection.

② Main Menu: Provide the main menus related to the inventory as buttons, and import / export / update / delete functions.

③ Search condition: Provides the conditions for searching the inventory data in the form of a combo box. It is divided into base year, region, material name, field, fuel name, and technical name.

④ Result output: Outputs search result in tabular form including each field name

The cost benefit main screen of the cost benefit estimator 130 for calculating the cost benefit by applying the energy forecast and policy is shown in FIG.

The parts from (1) to (6) shown in FIG. 8 are as follows.

① Policy name: Enter the policy name to search

② Policy search: Search the policies including the entered policy name

③ User-defined: Provides the ability to add user-defined policies

④ Policy list: Output search result list

⑤ Details: Details of the selected policy in the list of ④ is output in table form

⑥ Confirmation: Save the settings for cost benefit calculation

The cost benefit result screen of the cost benefit estimator 130 that displays the cost benefit estimation results in the form of tables and graphs is shown in FIG.

The description of the parts from (1) to (6) shown in FIG. 9 is as follows.

① Policy tree: A list of policies selected by the user is displayed in a tree form.

② Selection of results: Provided in tab form by dividing the cost benefit calculation result by the benefit, the emission by each trial, and the estimation weight.

③ Result output table: Outputs the cost benefit calculation result as a table including fields

④ Result output graph selection: Provides selection of bar graph and accumulation graph for the cost benefit calculation result

⑤ Result output graph: Output the cost benefit calculation result in graph form according to ④

⑥ Image saving: It provides the function to export the graph of the cost benefit calculation result to the image

The above-described embodiments of the present invention can be embodied in a general-purpose digital computer that can be embodied as a program that can be executed by a computer and operates the program using a computer-readable recording medium. The computer-readable recording medium includes a storage medium such as a magnetic storage medium (e.g., ROM, floppy disk, hard disk, etc.), optical reading medium (e.g., CD ROM,

Combinations of each step of the flowchart and each block of the block diagrams appended to the present invention may be performed by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be loaded into a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus so that the instructions, which may be executed by a processor of a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, And means for performing the functions described in each step are created. These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer usable or computer readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to implement the functionality in a particular manner so that the computer usable or computer readable memory It is also possible for the instructions stored in the block diagram to produce a manufacturing item containing instruction means for performing the functions described in each block or flowchart of the block diagram. Computer program instructions may also be stored on a computer or other programmable data processing equipment so that a series of operating steps may be performed on a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to create a computer- It is also possible that the instructions that perform the processing equipment provide the steps for executing the functions described in each block of the block diagram and at each step of the flowchart.

Also, each block or each step may represent a module, segment, or portion of code that includes one or more executable instructions for executing the specified logical function (s). It should also be noted that in some alternative embodiments, the functions mentioned in the blocks or steps may occur out of order. For example, two blocks or steps shown in succession may in fact be performed substantially concurrently, or the blocks or steps may sometimes be performed in reverse order according to the corresponding function.

The foregoing description is merely illustrative of the technical idea of the present invention, and various changes and modifications may be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the essential characteristics of the present invention. Therefore, the embodiments disclosed in the present invention are intended to illustrate rather than limit the scope of the present invention, and the scope of the technical idea of the present invention is not limited by these embodiments. The scope of protection of the present invention should be construed according to the following claims, and all technical ideas within the scope of equivalents should be construed as falling within the scope of the present invention.

The present invention has been described with reference to the preferred embodiments. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Therefore, the disclosed embodiments should be considered in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense. The scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all differences within the scope of equivalents thereof should be construed as being included in the present invention.

Claims (5)

As a cost-benefit model interface system using an energy forecast model and an integrated inventory database,
An integrated inventory including an air pollutant inventory to receive data from a Clean Air Pollution Support System and a greenhouse gas inventory to receive data from a GHG Information Center;
An energy prospecting model for estimating the future final energy demand using the above-described air pollutant inventory and the greenhouse gas inventory, and estimating the emission amount; And
And a cost benefit calculator for estimating cost benefits by utilizing the integrated inventory and the energy forecast model. The method according to claim 1,
Wherein the target material of the atmospheric pollutant inventory comprises CO, SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5 and the target material of the greenhouse gas inventory comprises CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, ≪ / RTI > The method according to claim 1,
The integrated inventory includes information on North Korea's emissions to estimate the amount of emissions to Korea. The method according to claim 1,
The energy prospecting model includes the National Statistical Office's population forecasts, Korea Development Institute's economic growth prospects, industry research outlook, and international oil price forecasts. The method according to claim 1,
Wherein the cost benefit calculation unit uses an objective function of a cost estimation module for minimizing an overall cost during a modeling period for calculating a cost benefit, the objective function including an annualized investment cost of the facility, Wherein the system utilizes variable operating costs of the facility, annual carbon cost of the facility and air pollution emission allowance, discount factor for initial investment, annual discount factor.

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