KR20130056835A - System and method for assessing future climatic change of the east asian summer monsoon - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE: A system and method for assessing climatic change of East Asian summer monsoon is provided to quantitatively analyze the change of East Asian summer monsoon by using an AR4(Assessment report 4) CMIP3 model. CONSTITUTION: A system for assessing climatic change of East Asian summer monsoon uses a CMIP3(Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models). The system comprises a space distribution-comparing part(60), a motel selection part(61), a model verification part(62), a quantitative future weather estimator(63), a precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part(64), and a monsoon change evaluation output part(65). The space distribution-comparing part compares climate data of 20th century and space distribution of average climate and precipitation in summer. The model selection part analyze and selects the CIMP3 model by using Taylor diagram. The model verification part divides the selected CMIP3 models, based on simulation capability of the climate data of 20th century and verify per divided groups. The quantitative future weather estimator estimates quantitative change of climate of 21th century. The precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part analyzes factors contributing to future precipitation change. The monsoon change evaluation output part outputs change data of the monsoon change evaluation according to selected models. [Reference numerals] (60) Space distribution-comparing part; (61) Motel selection part; (62) Model verification part for each group; (63) Quantitative future weather change estimator; (64) Precipitation change-contributing factor analysis part; (65) Monsoon change evaluation output part

Description

System and Method for Assessing Future Climatic Change of the East Asian Summer Monsoon}

The present invention relates to the diagnosis of East Asian summer monsoon change. Specifically, East Asian summer enables the reliable prediction of climate change by quantitatively evaluating changes in future East Asian monsoon with objective criteria using AR4 (Assessment report 4) CMIP3 model. Monsoon future change diagnosis system and method.

The East Asian summer monsoon is called Meiyu in China, the rainy season in Korea, and Baiwu in Japan. This phenomenon is one of the monsoons with distinct characteristics in the Asian climate system.

However, in recent decades, abnormal climate phenomena caused by climate change have become more prominent than before, and as a result of the development of large-scale natural disasters, they are out of the range of general natural climate variability.

Since these phenomena can have significant economic and social impacts, it is very important to analyze and predict summer Asian monsoons in East Asia. However, one of the difficulties in making predictions is which CMIP3 model to choose.

This is because changes in future climate can be interpreted differently according to the combination of ensemble of CMIP3 models. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth report on global warming in 2008, with a total of 23 participating models: the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models. , CMIP3 models).

There is a study evaluating East Asian monsoons using these models, but previous studies have predicted future climate using some model ensemble or one model without using all 23 models. This has not been done and it contains a lot of uncertainty about the model.

The present invention is to solve such a problem of predicting future climate for East Asian monsoon in the prior art, by using the CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model with objective criteria and quantitatively evaluate the change in future East Asian monsoon The aim is to provide a system and method for diagnosing future change in East Asia summer monsoon that enables high climate change prediction.

The present invention can quantitatively evaluate future East Asian summer monsoon changes using an ensemble of selected models, focusing on more objective and broader model selection by improving the problem of model selection to evaluate future climate predictions of East Asian summer monsoons. The aim is to provide an East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis system and method.

The present invention evaluates how well the CMIP3 models simulate the spatial distribution of 20th century climate data through the meteorological phenomenon of global transport, cumulus convection, and the mechanism of precipitation, which are important variables in the East Asian summer monsoon. The aim is to provide a system and method for diagnosing future change in East Asia summer monsoon that enables change prediction.

The present invention analyzes the mechanism of precipitation using the steam balance equation in order to examine the important generation process in the generation of precipitation, and further changes the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon, which can analyze the factors contributing to the change in precipitation in the future East Asia. Its purpose is to provide a diagnostic system and method.

The present invention estimates the future climate of East Asian summer monsoon according to the combination of the model ensemble in predicting the future climate output, and the optimal selection of models to ensure reliable climate change prediction in East Asia The aim is to provide a summer monsoon future change diagnosis system and method.

The objects of the present invention are not limited to the above-mentioned objects, and other objects not mentioned can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art from the following description.

The East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis system according to the present invention for achieving the above object is a system for evaluating the future changes of the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model, 20th century climate data and A spatial distribution comparison unit for comparing the summer precipitation climate average and the aging variability of the CMIP3 model; a model selection unit for evaluating and verifying a CMIP3 model using a Taylor diagram; selecting a CMIP3 model; selected from the model selection unit Group model verification unit for dividing CMIP3 models based on simulation capability of 20th century climate data and verifying them by divided groups; Future of 21st century through ensemble of CMIP3 models verified based on simulation capability by group model verification unit Future Climate Quantitative Change Prediction Predicting Quantitative Changes in Climate; Water Balance Equation Precipitation change contributor analysis unit for analyzing the factors contributing to the future precipitation change using; Monsoon change evaluation output unit for outputting the variation data of the East Asian monsoon change evaluation according to the model selection, through the ensemble of each group; It is characterized by.

Here, the evaluation and verification of the CMIP3 model in the model selection unit uses a pattern correlation and a standard deviation in space between the CMIP3 model and the climate data, and the larger the correlation, the greater the standard deviation in the space. The higher the ratio (the standard deviation in space of the model / standard deviation in space of climate data) is on the value line, the greater the simulation capability.

The model verification unit for each group quantitatively predicts the generation of precipitation generation using the total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850 hPa water vapor transport, and water vapor balance equations of the 20th century, and compares the climate data with the CMIP3 model to verify the model. It is done.

In the precipitation change contributing factor analysis unit, the region of the water vapor balance equation is a region average of the main precipitation band regions [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E],

이고, 여기서

는 가강수량, < > 는 1000 hPa에서 100 hPa까지의 연직 적분, P는 강수량, E는 증발량, Residual(Res)는 계산상에서 생기는 오차값, 데이터 자료동화의 오차, 수학식의 2번째 항은 수평건조이류 (

) 와 질량발산과 관계있는 수분발산 (

) 으로 나누어지는 것을 특징으로 한다.

, Where

Is the amount of precipitation, <> is the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa, P is the precipitation, E is the evaporation amount, and Residual ( Res ) is the calculation error, data error, and the second term in the equation is horizontal. Dry liquor (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

It is characterized by being divided into).

The model selecting unit may further perform a process of correcting systematic errors of individual models by multivariate sequential pattern projection (MSPM) before evaluating and verifying CMIP3 models in order to reduce systematic errors of the CMIP3 models. .

The East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis method according to the present invention for achieving another object is 20cm century climate data and the CMIP3 model in order to evaluate the future change of the East Asian summer monsoon using the CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model Comparing the spatial distribution of summer precipitation and mean variability of the summer precipitation; Selecting CMIP3 models by evaluating and verifying CMIP3 models using Taylor diagrams; Selecting the CMIP3 models selected during the CMIP3 model selection process Based on the simulation capability, the CMIP3 model is quantitatively predicted and compared with the climate data by quantitatively predicting the important generation processes of precipitation using the 20th century's total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850hPa water vapor transport, and water vapor balance equations. Verifying the CMIP3 model verified based on the simulation capability in the verifying step. Characterized in that it comprises a; predicting the quantitative changes in the 21st century future climate through sangbeul and by using a steam balance equation analyzing the factors that contribute to the precipitation, change in the future.

Here, the zone for evaluating the future change of the East Asian summer monsoon is characterized in that the 20 ~ 50 ° N, 100 ~ 180 ° E region.

The 20th-century climate data are from summer of 1979 to 1999 (June, July, and August), and the future climate of the 21st century is from 2079 to 2099 (June, July, August). It is characterized by the future climate of).

In the step of evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using the Taylor diagram, the CMIP3 model is applied by applying three criteria, using a standard deviation distribution indicating the climate average and secular variability of 20th century East Asian summer precipitation. It is characterized by dividing.

The criteria applied for dividing the CMIP3 model are: (1) If the pattern correlation value with the climate data is more than 0.6 in the climate average Taylor diagram of the summer precipitation, the model is selected as the CMIP3 model of the first criterion with large simulation capability, and less than 0.6. (2) CMIP3 model whose pattern correlation value is 0.6 or more in the Taylor diagram of secular variability and the ratio of standard deviation in space is within 0.25 value based on the 1-value line. (3) CMIP3 model of second standard with small simulation ability if ratio of standard deviation in space is 0.25 value based on 1 value line Characterized by.

In the step of predicting the quantitative change of the future climate of the 21st century, the variables used are the total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850 hPa water vapor transport, the water balance equation, and the factors contributing to the precipitation generation. The method of expressing A1B is characterized in that it is expressed by the distribution of the A1B scenario and the deviation field from the 20th century.

In the process of classifying the selected CMIP3 models based on the simulation capability of 20th century climate data, the ensemble of all the selected CMIP3 models (N), and the CMIP3 selected in the order of high simulation capability of 20th century climate data. The spatial distribution is divided into three groups: ensembles of models (Nn, N> n) and ensembles of CMIP3 models (Nn, N> n), which are selected in order of lowest 20th century climate data. do.

In the step of evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using the Taylor diagram, the CMIP3 model is selected. Before evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model to reduce the systematic errors of the CMIP3 models, the individual variables are multi-variable sequential pattern projection (MSPM). Characterized in that the process of further correcting the systematic error of the model.

In the step of analyzing the factors contributing to the future precipitation change using the water vapor balance equation, the area of the water vapor balance equation covers the main precipitation band regions [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E]. On average,

이고, 여기서

는 가강수량, < > 는 1000 hPa에서 100 hPa까지의 연직 적분, P는 강수량, E는 증발량, Residual(Res)는 계산상에서 생기는 오차값, 데이터 자료동화의 오차, 수학식의 2번째 항은 수평건조이류 (

) 와 질량발산과 관계있는 수분발산 (

) 으로 나누어지는 것을 특징으로 한다.

, Where

Is the amount of precipitation, <> is the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa, P is the precipitation, E is the evaporation amount, and Residual ( Res ) is the calculation error, data error, and the second term in the equation is horizontal. Dry liquor (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

It is characterized by being divided into).

Such a method for diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoon according to the present invention has the following effects.

First, by evaluating all 23 CMIP3 models to assess future East Asian summer monsoon changes, a broader model can be used to predict.

Second, the reliability of the Taylor diagram can be improved by selecting the model through two criteria, the standard deviation of the 20th century summer precipitation and the mean of seasonal variation. .

Third, models selected on a strict and objective basis can be used as tools for the prediction of other variables, in addition to precipitation.

Fourth, it is possible to analyze and predict precipitation in more detail by dividing precipitation into large-scale precipitation and cumulus convection precipitation.

Fifth, it is possible to analyze and predict how the shape of large-scale circulation will change by analyzing water vapor transport among the effects on precipitation.

Sixth, in order to examine the important generation process in the generation of precipitation, the mechanism of precipitation can be analyzed by using the water balance equation to analyze the factors contributing to the precipitation change in the future East Asia.

Seventh, in predicting future climate, the evaluation output can be verified to confirm that the evaluation of East Asian summer monsoon can be interpreted differently according to the combination of models ensemble.

Eighth, before evaluating and validating the CMIP3 model, multivariate sequential pattern projection (MSPM) is used to correct the systematic errors of individual models to select the models optimally for reliable climate change prediction.

1A is a climate averaged Taylor diagram of summer 20th century precipitation of 22 CMIP3 models.
1B is a Taylor diagram of the standard deviation of 20th century summer precipitation of 22 CMIP3 models
Figure 2 shows the distribution of 20th century climate data, ensemble of all models, ensembles of models with good simulation ability, total precipitation and cumulus convective precipitation of models with low simulation ability, and summer average distribution of 850 hPa water vapor transport.
Figure 3 shows the overall distribution of the ensemble of all models in the 21st century, the ensemble of the model with good simulation ability, the ensemble of the model with the low simulation ability and cumulus convective precipitation, and the summer average distribution of 850 hPa water vapor transport.
4 is a distribution chart showing the increase in the 21st century compared to the 20th century for precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, and 850hPa water vapor transport;
5A and 5B are the terms of the water vapor balance equations for the deviations of the 20th century, the 21st century, and the 20th century. The climate data and the ensemble of all models, the ensemble of the high simulation model, and the ensemble of the low simulation model Graph showing average value
Figure 6a is a block diagram of a future change diagnosis system of East Asian summer monsoon using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention
Figure 6b is a flow chart showing a method for diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoon using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention

Hereinafter, a preferred embodiment of the East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis method according to the present invention will be described in detail.

Features and advantages of the East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis method according to the present invention will become apparent from the detailed description of each embodiment below.

FIG. 1A is a climate averaged Taylor diagram of the 20th century summer precipitation of 22 CMIP3 models, and FIG. 1B is a Taylor diagram of the standard deviation of the 20th century summer precipitation of 22 CMIP3 models.

In the following description, the 20th century climate data is the summer data from 1979 to 1999 (June, July and August), and the future climate of the 21st century is 2079 to 2099 (June, July, August is the future climate.

The present invention uses 22 of 23 CMIP3 models participating in AR4 to select a model that simulates the spatial distribution of climate mean and secular variability of summer precipitation, which is the most important variable in summer monsoons in the 20th century (1979-1999). do.

In particular, three criteria apply in selecting models.

The criteria applied to break down the CMIP3 model,

(1) If the pattern correlation value with the climate data is more than 0.6 in the climate average Taylor diagram of summer precipitation, select the CMIP3 model of the first criterion with large simulation capability, and if it is less than 0.6, the CMIP3 model of the second criterion with small simulation capability Classified as,

(2) In the Taylor diagram of secular variability, the CMIP3 model whose pattern correlation value is 0.6 or more and the ratio of standard deviation in space is within 0.25 value based on the 1-value line is selected as the CMIP3 model of the first criterion with large simulation ability.

(3) In the Taylor diagram of secular variability, if the ratio of standard deviation in space is other than 0.25 value based on 1 value line, it is classified as CMIP3 model of the second standard with small simulation ability.

It also uses the multi-model ensemble method to remove the uncertainty of the model.

These processes are intended to be used as a useful index for determining more useful and reliable model selection than conventional model selection methods.

The present invention selects a model based on more objective and strict criteria for the problem caused by the interpretation of the East Asian monsoon according to the model selection due to the uncertainty of the model, and predicts the East Asian summer monsoon through the ensemble of the selected model.

It also shows quantitatively how the future changes in East Asian monsoons will increase over the 20th century.

First, obtain the standard deviation distribution to see the climate precipitation and secular variability of summer precipitation data in East Asia (20-50 ° N, 100-180 ° E), and then calculate the 22 CMIP3 models based on the same criteria. Use the Taylor diagram as a method.

Apply three criteria in the Taylor diagram to group CMIP3 models that better simulate 20th-century climate data and CMIP3 models that are poorly simulated, and ensemble (N) the three groups used in this analysis: all CMIP3 models. We compare and analyze the ensembles of the model with excellent simulation ability (Nn, N> n) and the ensemble of the CMIP3 model (Nn, N> n) with poor simulation ability.

Using the three groups divided above, we confirm the reliability of the model selection once again through the transport of 850hPa steam, which is the main element of precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation and precipitation mechanism.

Next, we will look at precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, and strength and size changes of 850hPa water vapor transport in the future using the ensemble of the model with excellent simulation capability.

The model ensemble also shows the rate of change in the 21st century compared to the 20th century climate.

On the other hand, the mechanism of precipitation is examined by using the water balance equation to quantitatively examine the important generation process in the generation of precipitation and to investigate the factors contributing to the future precipitation change.

These results indicate how important the choice of model is in evaluating future East Asian monsoons.

The system and method for predicting and evaluating future East Asian summer monsoons using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention will be described in detail as follows.

6A is a block diagram of a system for diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoon using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention, and FIG. 6B is a flowchart illustrating a method for diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoon using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention. .

A system for evaluating future changes in summer monsoons in East Asia using the CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model according to the present invention, as shown in FIG. Spatial distribution comparison unit 60 for comparing the spatial distribution of variability, a model selection unit 61 for selecting a CMIP3 model by evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using a Taylor diagram, and the model selection unit 61 CMIP3 models are divided based on the simulation capability of 20th century climate data and verified by the group model verification unit 62 and the model verification unit 62 for each group verification. The future climate quantitative change predictor 63 predicts the quantitative change of the future climate in the 21st century through the ensemble of the model, and the water vapor balance equation is used to predict the future precipitation change. Precipitation change contributor analysis unit 64 for analyzing the contributing elements, and monsoon change evaluation output unit 65 for outputting the variation data of the East Asian monsoon change evaluation according to the model selection through the ensemble of each group.

Here, the model selector 61 uses a pattern correlation and a standard deviation in space for evaluating and validating the CMIP3 model and climate data. The more the ratio of standard deviation (standard deviation value in model space / standard deviation value in climate data) is on the value line, the greater the simulation capability.

The model selector 61 may further perform a process of correcting systematic errors of individual models by multivariate sequential pattern projection (MSPM) before evaluating and verifying CMIP3 models to reduce systematic errors of the CMIP3 models. .

This systematic error correction is used to correct the forecast variation of an individual model to be similar to the variation of the observation using a statistical method in order to accurately estimate the uncertainty of the prediction. The pattern of time series variability of the predictor and the associated region of the predictor are predicted. Statistically analyzing the variability to extract the correlation, and using the extracted correlation information to correct the predicted variable corresponding to the period and region to actually predict.

The model verification unit 62 for each group quantitatively predicts the generation of precipitation generation using the total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850 hPa water vapor transport, and water vapor balance equations of the 20th century, and compares the climate data to verify the CMIP3 model. do.

The region of the water vapor balance equation in the precipitation change contributor analysis unit 64 is a region average of the main precipitation band regions [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E],

이고, 여기서

는 가강수량, < > 는 1000 hPa에서 100 hPa까지의 연직 적분, P는 강수량, E는 증발량, Residual(Res)는 계산상에서 생기는 오차값, 데이터 자료동화의 오차, 수학식의 2번째 항은 수평건조이류 (

) 와 질량발산과 관계있는 수분발산 (

) 으로 나누어진다.

, Where

Is the amount of precipitation, <> is the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa, P is the precipitation, E is the evaporation amount, and Residual ( Res ) is the calculation error, data error, and the second term in the equation is horizontal. Dry liquor (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

Divided by).

In addition, the method of diagnosing future changes in summer monsoons in East Asia using the CMIP3 model according to the present invention compares 20th century climate data with the spatial distribution of summer precipitation climate averages and secular variability of 22 CMIP3 models. S601)

In addition, the CMIP3 model is evaluated and verified according to three criteria using the Taylor diagram, which is a statistical method, and the CMIP3 model is selected based on this (S602).

In the CMIP3 model selection step, before evaluating and validating the CMIP3 models in order to reduce the systematic errors of the CMIP3 models, the process of correcting the systematic errors of individual models can be further performed by multivariate sequential pattern projection (MSPM). .

This systematic error correction is used to correct the forecast variation of an individual model to be similar to the variation of the observation using a statistical method in order to accurately estimate the uncertainty of the prediction. The pattern of time series variability of the predictor and the associated region of the predictor are predicted. Statistically analyzing the variability to extract the correlation, and using the extracted correlation information to correct the predicted variable corresponding to the period and region to actually predict.

In the model selection process, the model ensemble is divided into three groups: the model ensemble with excellent simulation capability of 20th century climate data, the model ensemble with poor simulation capability, and the ensemble of all models.The 20th century precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, and 850hPa vapor The simulation simulates the CMIP3 model by comparing it with climate data (S603).

And through the ensemble of the model with excellent simulation ability, it predicts the quantitative change of the future climate of the 21st century. (S604)

Next, the factors contributing to the future precipitation change are analyzed using the water vapor balance equation (S605).

In order to confirm that the East Asian monsoon change is evaluated differently according to the model selection through the ensemble of each group, the East Asian monsoon change evaluation result according to the model selection is output (S606).

Specifically, the present invention uses a method of determining criteria for selecting a model by selecting summer precipitation in 20th century East Asia from CMAP (Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data (horizontal lattice spacing 2.5 °).

The non-humidity, 850 hPa winds needed to calculate cumulus convective precipitation and water vapor transport, variables other than overall precipitation, are selected from reanalysis data (horizontal lattice spacing 2.5 °) to characterize the summer East Asian monsoon.

Table 1 summarizes the results of future changes in East Asian monsoons using the CMIP3 model.

However, the results in Table 1 are the results of evaluating a model using one model or using an ensemble of several models that meet the authors' criteria. The problem with these results is that not only does it reduce the uncertainty of a model, but there are also limitations in model selection, which prevents accurate verification or extensive model selection.

Therefore, in the present invention, by using all CMIP3 models participating in AR4 and dividing the criteria for selecting models into two rather than one, it is possible to have a more objective and reliable model selection.

In the summer precipitation analysis, the analysis is divided into total precipitation and cumulus convective precipitation. The reason for using this variable is that the cumulus convective precipitation in the East Asian summer climate characteristic uses the climatic characteristics in which the occupancy rate is greater in the overall summer precipitation than the large precipitation.

Water vapor transport on the 850 hPa plane is a major factor in East Asian summer precipitation. The variables used to view the steam transport flow are 850 hPa humidity and wind (East-West-North).

FIG. 1A is a Taylor diagram showing the similarity between the precipitation climate mean of the 20th century (1979-1999) summer (June, July, August) of climate data and 22 CMIP3 models.

Here, the statistical method of Taylor diagram is to use pattern correlation and standard deviation in space of CMIP3 model and climate data.

The higher the correlation is, the better the Taylor diagram is. The more the ratio of the standard deviation in space (the standard deviation value of the model / the standard deviation value of the climate data) is located on the 1-value line, the better the model.

As a model selection criterion, in FIG. 1A, (1) the pattern correlation value was classified into an excellent model when 0.6 or more, and a model having poor simulation ability by less than 0.6.

FIG. 1B is a Taylor diagram showing the similarity of the standard deviation distribution of twenty-first century (1979-1999) summer (June, July, August) climatic data with 22 CMIP3 models.

As a model selection criterion, in FIG. 1B, when the (2) pattern correlation value is 0.6 or more and the ratio of the standard deviation in the space is within 0.25 value based on the 1-value line, the model is selected to have excellent simulation ability, and (3) the standard deviation in the space. If the ratio is other than 0.25 based on the 1-value line, it is classified as a model with poor simulation ability.

The models were selected based on the three criteria applied in Figures 1a and 1b, the selected models of each group are summarized in Table 2.

The red circle indicates better simulation compared to the climate data, and the blue circle indicates that the model is poorly simulated.

Here, the ECHO-G model and the INM-CM3 model are included in the excellent simulation group, but the ECHO-G model is excluded because future climate variables are not available, and the INM-CM3 shows good performance in the Taylor diagram. In comparison, the spatial patterns of the summer precipitation averages were not included in the group with good simulation ability because the distribution patterns as well as the intensity were not shown when compared with the climate data.

According to the above criteria, six models selected as good models are more correlated and close to 1 standard deviation ratio in space than other models, but the models with poor simulation ability show low correlation and large standard deviation ratio in space.

Now, using the ensemble of the selected model, we can see how well it matches the climate data in the overall precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, and water vapor transport on the 850hPa side, as shown in FIG.

First, referring to the precipitation of FIG. 2 (a), the distribution of major precipitation bands of Meiyu in China, the rainy season in Korea, and Baiwu in Japan is well represented in the climate data.

However, in the model ensembles of all models and inferior simulation ability, the rainfall distribution in the Baiu region of Japan is well represented, but the rainy season in the Korean peninsula and Meiyu in China do not show the distribution as well as the strength.

On the other hand, the ensemble of the model with good simulation shows the distribution and intensity of the main precipitation.

In the cumulative convection precipitation of FIG. 2 (b), the intensity of all models is lower than the climate data because of the dry bias that the model has in summer precipitation.

However, the cumulus convective precipitation in the Manchuria region and near 20 ° N suggests that the distribution and precipitation of other models are not simulated better than the model ensemble with excellent simulation capability.

Referring to the climate data of FIG. 2 (c), it can be seen that water vapor is being transported along the northwest Pacific high pressure, and the convergence of water vapor transport is particularly large near the north latitude 30N. In the model of each group, the total transport direction is simulated similarly, but in terms of transport size, the ensemble of all models or the model ensembles with poor simulation ability are simulated smaller than the model ensembles with excellent simulation ability.

So far, models have been selected using climate averages and secular variability of summer precipitation in the 20th century, and examined whether groups of selected models are well simulated by other variables. The ensemble group of models with excellent simulation ability simulated the climatic features of the 20th century East Asian summer monsoon compared to other groups.

Next, the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon in the 21st century are as follows.

FIG. 3 is a graph showing the total rainfall and cumulus convective precipitation and the average distribution and deviation length in summer for ensembles of all models in the 21st century, ensembles of models with high simulation capability, ensembles of models with low simulation capability, and 850 hPa vapor transport. The scenario of the model used is the A1B scenario.

3 (a) and 3 (b) are deviation fields showing the difference between total precipitation and 20th century precipitation. First, the distribution of precipitation in the A1B scenario is similar to that of the 20th century, but the Korean Peninsula region and the southern part of Japan Seems to have increased slightly.

It is more detailed in the distribution of deviations, up to 1 mm / day in the Meiyu region of China, the rainy season region of the Korean Peninsula, and the southern and central regions of Japan.

In fact, 1mm / day is considered to be a small number, but it is not a small number because the ratio of FIG. 4 (a) can be considered to be about 10% to 20% as compared with the present time.

In the cumulus convective precipitation of FIG. 3 (c) and FIG. 3 (d), it is similar to the overall precipitation. In particular, Figure 3 (d) has a distribution similar to that of Figure 3 (b), which means that in the future, the difference rate of convective precipitation, which is less than that of large-scale precipitation, will be larger in summer in East Asia.

3 (e) and 3 (f) show the size of water vapor transport and humidity.

In Figure 3 (f) it can be seen that the size of the water vapor transport to the mid-tropics in the subtropical region is increasing, the size of the non-humidity similar position, that is, in the Korean peninsula region and the Meiyu region of China.

As such, all the above results mean that the future monsoon in East Asia in the 21st century will be rainier than it is now, and the increase in the amount of cumulative convective precipitation is increasing.

In addition, one of the causes of this phenomenon can be thought of as an increase in the humidity and water vapor transport.

In the above, we looked at the intensity and location of the change. To see more quantitatively, the increase in spatial distribution is as follows.

Since the interpretation of the figure as shown in FIG. 4 is more easily understood by the general public, it can be used as an indicator of the change of the future East Asian monsoon. It is also important to suggest that the choice of model can be interpreted differently in evaluating the future.

Fig. 4 shows changes in the 21st century of the model ensembles excellent in simulation capability and ensembles of all models.

Figure 4 shows the increase in the 21st century compared to the 20th century for precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850hPa water vapor transport, the ensemble of the excellent simulation model, the ensemble of all models, all models in the 21st century excellent simulation model Each distribution shows how much it increased compared to the ensemble of.

First of all, it is shown that the model ensembles with good simulation ability increase by up to 20%, but increase by 10-15% in all models ensembles.

In particular, Figure 4 (c) is shown to see how much the value of the model with excellent simulation capability in the 21st century compared to the ensemble of all models, the main precipitation band area is about 30% excellent simulation It can be seen that the model is largely simulated.

In other words, the best models are expected to have more rainfall than the ensemble of all models in the 21st century. In other words, the ensemble of all models simulates about 30% of the major precipitation bands compared to the model ensemble with excellent simulation capability.

In cumulus convective precipitation, up to 50% of the North Pacific region is simulated in Figure 4 (d), but all model ensembles have similar numbers but different spatial distributions.

Also, in FIG. 4 (f), it can be seen that the precipitation band region has less cumulus convection precipitation simulation of about 40% in the ensemble of all models.

In the size of water vapor transport, the difference of spatial distribution of future change according to model selection is larger than other variables. In the model ensembles shown in Fig. 4 (g), the spatial distribution of precipitation is similar to the spatial distribution of precipitation. On the other hand, it can be seen that the ensemble of all models in FIG. 4 (h) is almost inconsistent with the distribution of precipitation.

In other words, the ensemble of the model with excellent simulation ability has similar mechanical mechanisms of precipitation and water vapor transport, which are the main factors of precipitation, but the ensemble of other models does not represent it at all.

On the other hand, the present invention quantitatively examine the important production process in the precipitation of East Asian summer monsoon, and how to determine how much contributes to the precipitation of the monsoon is analyzed using the steam balance equation.

We also look at contributing factors for future precipitation changes, which are the region averages of the major precipitation band regions [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E].

는 가강수량, < > 는 1000 hPa에서 100 hPa까지의 연직 적분을 의미한다. here

Is the amount of precipitation, and <> means the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa.

) 와 질량발산과 관계있는 수분발산 (

) 으로 나뉜다. P is precipitation and E is evaporation amount. Residual ( Res ) means errors in calculations, errors in data assimilation, or errors between precipitation data such as CMAP data and NCEP / DOE reanalysis data. The second term in Equation 1 is the horizontal dry flow (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

Are divided into

5A and 5B show values of climate data, an ensemble of all CMIP3 models, an ensemble of models having excellent simulation capability, and an ensemble of CMIP3 models having poor simulation capability for each term.

The main results using the water vapor balance equation are as follows.

(1) For each term in Equation 1, the ensemble of the model with good simulation is most similar to the value of the climate data. This can lead to reliable results in model selection.

(2) The ensemble value of the model with poor simulation ability shows the largest difference with the climate data. In particular, the climate data and the other two ensemble groups show horizontal wet drift, but the group with poor simulation ability has the horizontal dryness. Type is shown.

Moreover, this group shows a large amount of evaporation compared with other groups. These results may explain why the model ensemble, which is less capable than the other groups, has relatively low rainfall.

(3) Based on the above results, future changes in precipitation can give more reliable results than the simulated values of the other two groups, with the best model ensemble.

) 은 수분수렴항 (

) 보다 20~30% 큰 값을 나타내고 있다.(4) Horizontal wetting advection term in ensembles of models with excellent climate data and simulation ability (

) Is the water convergence term (

) Is 20-30% larger than

) 이 수평습윤이류항 (

) 보다 2배정도 큰 값을 모의능력이 우수한 모델의 그룹이 모의하고 있는데, 이는, 증발량이 증가함으로써 대기의 수증 양이 증가하기 때문이다. However, in future climate change, the water convergence term (

This horizontal wet advection term (

The group of models with good simulation ability simulates a value twice as large as) because the amount of vapor increase in the atmosphere as the amount of evaporation increases.

In this way, the change in future East Asian summer monsoon can be interpreted differently according to the model selection.

As described above, the present invention evaluates changes in future East Asian summer monsoons using the CMIP3 model that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And secular variability.

In the model selection process, three criteria were used to have a more objective criterion on a large scale. Models with good simulation ability and poor simulation capability of 20th century climate data were selected, and the ensemble of selected models was used to quantitatively evaluate changes in future East Asian monsoons.

In addition, it can be seen that the evaluation of the future East Asian summer monsoon may be interpreted differently according to the model selection.

It will be understood that the present invention is implemented in a modified form without departing from the essential features of the present invention as described above.

It is therefore to be understood that the specified embodiments are to be considered in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense and that the scope of the invention is indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description and that all such differences falling within the scope of equivalents thereof are intended to be embraced therein It should be interpreted.

Claims (14)

A system for evaluating future changes in East Asian summer monsoons using the CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model,
A spatial distribution comparison unit for comparing 20th-century climate data and spatial distribution of summer precipitation climate mean and secular variability of the CMIP3 model;
A model selection unit for evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using a Taylor diagram to select the CMIP3 model;
A group model verification unit for dividing the CMIP3 models selected by the model selection unit based on the simulation capability of 20th century climate data and verifying the divided groups for each group;
A future climate quantitative change prediction unit for predicting quantitative changes in future climate of the 21st century through an ensemble of CMIP3 models verified based on simulation capability by the group model verification unit;
Precipitation change contributor analysis unit for analyzing the factors contributing to the future precipitation change using the water vapor balance equation;
Monsoon change evaluation output unit for outputting the variation data of the East Asian monsoon change evaluation according to the model selection through the ensemble of each group; East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis system comprising a. The method of claim 1, wherein the evaluation and verification of the CMIP3 model in the model selection unit,
The pattern correlation and standard deviation of the CMIP3 model and climate data are used, and the greater the correlation, the greater the ratio of the standard deviation in the space (the model's standard deviation value / climate data in the space). Standard deviation value) East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis system, characterized in that the simulation position is determined that the larger the value is located in the value line. The method of claim 1, wherein the group verification unit for each group,
Diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoons by quantitatively predicting the generation of precipitation generation using the total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850 hPa water vapor transport, and water vapor equations of the 20th century and verifying the CMIP3 model against climate data system. The method of claim 1, wherein in the precipitation change contributor analysis unit,
The area of the water vapor balance equation is the average of the major precipitation bands [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E].

ego,
here

Is the amount of precipitation, <> is the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa, P is the precipitation, E is the evaporation amount, and Residual ( Res ) is the calculation error, data error, and the second term in the equation is horizontal. Dry liquor (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

East Asia Summer Monsoon Future Change Diagnosis System, characterized by The method of claim 1, wherein the model selection unit,
In order to reduce the systematic errors of CMIP3 models, the East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnosis is further performed by correcting the systematic errors of individual models by multivariate sequential pattern projection (MSPM) before evaluating and validating the CMIP3 models. system. To assess future changes in summer monsoons in East Asia using the CMIP3 (Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 models) model,
Comparing the 20th-century climate data with the spatial distribution of summer precipitation climate mean and secular variability of the CMIP3 model;
Selecting a CMIP3 model by evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using a Taylor diagram;
The CMIP3 models selected during the CMIP3 model selection process are divided based on the simulation capability of 20th century climate data, and each group is divided into 20th century's total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850hPa water vapor transport, and water vapor balance. Quantitatively predicting the production process and comparing the climate data to validate the CMIP3 model;
Predicting quantitative changes in future climates of the 21st century through an ensemble of CMIP3 models verified based on simulation capabilities in the verification step and analyzing factors contributing to future precipitation changes using a water vapor balance equation; Featured East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnostic method. The method of claim 6, wherein the region for evaluating the future change of the East Asian summer monsoon is 20-50 ° N, 100-180 ° E region. According to claim 6, The 20th century climate data is the summer data (June, July, August) from 1979 to 1999, The future climate of the 21st century is 2079 to 2099 (June, July, August) The future change of East Asian summer monsoon future diagnostic method, characterized in that the future climate. The method of claim 6, wherein in the step of selecting and evaluating the CMIP3 model by evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using the Taylor diagram,
A method for diagnosing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon, characterized by dividing the CMIP3 model using three criteria, using the standard deviation distribution representing the climate mean and secular variability of 20th century East Asian precipitation. The method of claim 9, wherein the criteria applied to divide the CMIP3 model is:
(1) If the pattern correlation value with the climate data is more than 0.6 in the climate average Taylor diagram of summer precipitation, select the CMIP3 model of the first criterion with large simulation capability, and if it is less than 0.6, the CMIP3 model of the second criterion with small simulation capability Classified as,
(2) In the Taylor diagram of secular variability, the CMIP3 model whose pattern correlation value is 0.6 or more and the ratio of standard deviation in space is within 0.25 value based on the 1-value line is selected as the CMIP3 model of the first criterion with large simulation ability.
(3) The method of diagnosing future changes in East Asian summer monsoon, if the ratio of standard deviation in space is 0.25 value based on 1 value line in the Taylor diagram of secular variability, it is classified as CMIP3 model of second standard with small simulation ability. . 7. The method of claim 6, wherein in predicting quantitative changes in future climate in the 21st century,
The variables used are total precipitation, cumulus convective precipitation, 850 hPa water vapor transport, analysis of factors contributing to precipitation generation using the water vapor balance equation, and A1B scenario distribution and 20th century. East Asian summer monsoon future change diagnostic method characterized by the deputy general manager. According to claim 6, In the process of grouping the selected CMIP3 models based on the simulation capability of 20th century climate data,
Ensemble of all selected CMIP3 models (N), census of 20th century climate data in order of high, ensembles of selected CMIP3 models (Nn, N> n), and low order of 20th century climate data. A method for diagnosing future change in East Asian summer monsoon, characterized by representing spatial distribution by dividing into three groups of ensemble of selected CMIP3 models (Nn, N> n). The method of claim 6, wherein in the step of selecting and evaluating the CMIP3 model by evaluating and verifying the CMIP3 model using the Taylor diagram,
In order to reduce systematic errors of CMIP3 models, multi-variable sequential pattern projection (MSPM) is further performed to correct systematic errors of individual models before evaluating and verifying CMIP3 models. . 7. The method of claim 6, wherein in analyzing the factors contributing to future precipitation changes using the water vapor balance equation,
The area of the water vapor balance equation is the average of the major precipitation bands [26 ° N-46 ° N, 114 ° E-151 ° E].

ego,
here

Is the amount of precipitation, <> is the vertical integration from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa, P is the precipitation, E is the evaporation amount, and Residual ( Res ) is the calculation error, data error, and the second term in the equation is horizontal. Dry liquor (

) And moisture dissipation related to mass dissipation (

A method for diagnosing future changes in East Asia summer monsoon, characterized by

Images