KR20100115952A - Method for state predicting of seashore embankment facilities - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE: A method of predicting the state of seashore embankment facilities is provided to enable the measures of the damage or breaking of the facility installed on seashore embankment to be prepared previously. CONSTITUTION: A method of predicting the state of seashore embankment facilities is as follows. The displacement of a target using a displacement sensor layered vertically on the ground of seashore embankment facilities is measured(S103). The displacement information of the target measured at the measuring step is grouped(S107). The state of seashore embankment facilities by analyzing the displacement information of the grouped target is predicted(S111).

Description

Method for state predicting of seashore embankment facilities

The present invention accurately predicts in real time the condition of a facility installed on a coastal lake (large signs of damage or signs of collapse) in real time, so that if a large-scale damage or collapse of a facility installed on the coastal lake is concerned, the countermeasures are established in advance. It is a technique for predicting the condition of coastal shoreline facilities to prevent damage caused by large-scale damage or collapse of coastal shoreline facilities.

From 2002 to 2004, the coasts of all watersheds suffered a lot of damage due to bank collapse, loss and flooding due to the invasion and tsunami of big and small typhoons such as typhoons 'Rusa' and 'Cicada'.

Therefore, there is an urgent need to present future-oriented advanced safety management techniques that can take into account the diversified contents of water resources, soil and structural aspects for effective coastal safety management.

On the other hand, in general, in the case of civil structural measurement management, a comparative analysis of the measurement result and the value calculated during the design has been made by calculating the management standard value for each structure for effective task performance.

However, in the field of civil measurement, it was confirmed that the control standard to be compared with the measurement data is not clear yet, and the currently used management standard refers to the data of Japan and the US as it is. It is disadvantageous to use a constant value for similar structures in batches.

Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the management standard of new concept rather than the existing concept of passive absolute control standard.

The present invention has been proposed by the above needs,

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION An object of the present invention is to provide a method of predicting the condition of coastal shoreline facilities, which enables accurate prediction in real time of the condition of the facilities installed on the shoreline (large signs of damage or signs of collapse).

Another problem to be solved by the present invention is to anticipate large-scale damage or collapse signs of facilities installed in coastal lakes in advance, and to establish countermeasures to prevent damage caused by large-scale damage or collapse of coastal lakes facilities in advance. To provide a method for predicting the condition of a coastal shoreline facility.

According to the present invention for solving the above problems, the "prediction method of coastal shore facilities,"

A measurement step of measuring displacement of the target by using a displacement sensing sensor stacked in a vertical direction on the ground surface of a coastal shoreline facility;

Grouping displacement information of the target measured in the measuring step; And

And a state prediction step of predicting the state of the coastal shoreline facilities by analyzing the displacement information of the grouped targets.

Here, the measuring step of measuring the displacement of the target, characterized in that for measuring the displacement amount in the horizontal direction of each target, grouping the displacement information of the target group of the displacement information of the horizontal target installed in the same section as one group It is characterized by grouping.

In addition, the method of predicting the state of coastal shore security facilities,

The displacement information of the grouped targets is compared with a plurality of preset condition values for predicting the state of the coastal shoreline facility, and the condition of the coastal shoreline facility is predicted according to the magnitude. And a center value of the control chart, a lower limit value of the control chart, an upper limit value of the control chart, a warning limit value, and a standard deviation σ.

According to the present invention, there is an advantage that it is possible to accurately predict the condition (large signs of damage or signs of collapse) of a facility installed on a coastal lake in real time.

In addition, due to the above advantages, it is possible to predict large-scale damage or signs of collapse of the facilities installed on the coastal shores in advance, and to prepare countermeasures to prevent damage caused by large-scale damages or collapses of the coastal shores. There are advantages to it.

Hereinafter, described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings a preferred embodiment of the present invention. In the following description, well-known functions or constructions are not described in detail since they would obscure the invention in unnecessary detail.

1 is an exemplary diagram in which a plurality of targets are installed in an indicator of a field (site) in the present invention, and FIGS. 2A and 2B are schematic diagrams illustrating a state prediction system of a coastal shoreline facility according to the present invention, and FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a state prediction method of coastal revetment facilities according to the present invention, and FIGS. 4A to 4E are characteristic graphs for explaining various rules for determining slope instability when predicting the condition of coastal retreat facilities.

As shown in FIG. 1, the plurality of targets 101 to 104 applied to the present invention are installed using poles 111 to 114 on the surface slope of the coastal shoreline facility installed in the field (field). Here, the target is preferably installed horizontally with respect to the same cross section.

In FIG. 1, only four targets are shown on the slope for convenience, but in order to accurately predict the state of coastal revetment facilities, it is preferable to install as many targets as possible, but the larger the number of targets, the higher the accuracy, the installation of targets is possible. Since the cost and information processing are excessively consumed, it is desirable to set an optimized number of targets by experiment or the like.

는 각 단면의 센서위치로서, n은 단면번호이고, m은 센서위치이다.here

Is a sensor position of each cross section, n is a cross section number, and m is a sensor position.

In order to measure the displacement information of the target, as shown in FIG. 2B, a length measuring sensor which connects each target and the target with a wire and measures the displacement length of the wire, or as shown in FIG. 2A, It is preferable to use either an angle sensor for measuring the angle or a position measuring sensor using GPS, and the length measuring sensor, the angle sensor or the position measuring sensor adopts a sensor already known in the field for displacement measurement. Detailed description will be omitted.

Figure 2a is a block diagram showing a state prediction system of the coastal revetment facility using an angle sensor or GPS, Figure 2b is a block diagram showing a state prediction system for the coastal revetment facility using a length measurement sensor, the field system 100 , Coast prediction coastal facilities of the means 200, communication network 300, the monitoring system 400 is composed of.

2A and 2B are different from each other, but only the sensors to which they are applied are the same. Therefore, the following description will be given with reference to FIG. 2A for convenience of description.

On-site system 100 is installed in the vertical direction to the ground surface of the coastal shoreline facility 120 of the site by poles 111 ~ 114 and a plurality of targets (101 ~ 104) including a displacement measuring sensor and installed in the site Convert the target displacement information obtained from the displacement measuring sensors included in the plurality of targets 101 to 104 into a data format corresponding to the connected communication network, and then, to the state predicting means 200 of the coastal shoreline facility located remotely through the communication network. Displacement information transmitting means 130 for transmitting.

Displacement information transmission means 130 may include a signal processor for wired transmission to the terminal connected to the signal processing the displacement information obtained from each displacement measuring sensor, and to transmit the displacement information processed by the signal processor to the wireless communication network It may include a wireless transmitter for converting into a wireless data format for wireless transmission. In case of using a wired terminal, it is inconvenient for the administrator to directly access the signal processor by accessing the signal processor, and in the case of the wireless transmission method, the administrator can eliminate the inconvenience of directly exploring the location of the signal processor. have. However, since wired and wireless methods have various advantages and disadvantages, it is also possible to select an appropriate method or to use both methods in consideration of the installation location or other surrounding environment of coastal shoreline facilities.

The state predicting means 200 of the coastal revetment facility may be installed at the site, similar to the field system 100 installed at the site, or may be installed remotely and perform data communication through a separate communication network. Considering the convenience of management or other surrounding environment, it is desirable to install remotely.

알고리즘에 적용하여 해안 호안시설물의 상태를 예측하는 변위 정보 분석 및 예측수단(230)과; 상기 변위 정보 분석 및 예측수단(230)에서 예측한 해안 호안시설물의 상태 정보를 통신망(300)을 통해 일반 사용자 및 정보 참조자의 단말기로 전송해주는 예측정보 전송수단(240)을 포함한다.The state predicting means 200 of the coastal revetment facilities group the displacement information of the plurality of targets transmitted from the displacement information transmitting unit 130, and analyzes the displacement information of the grouped targets to determine the state of the coastal revetment facilities. As a function of predicting, specifically, displacement information receiving means for receiving displacement information of a plurality of targets transmitted from the displacement information transmitting means; A database server 220 for storing and managing displacement information received by the displacement information receiving unit 210 in a database 221; Group displacement information of a plurality of targets stored in the database 221 and preset displacement information of the grouped targets.

Displacement information analysis and prediction means (230) applied to the algorithm to predict the state of coastal shoreline facilities; Prediction information transmission means 240 for transmitting the state information of the coastal coastal facilities predicted by the displacement information analysis and prediction means 230 to the terminal of the general user and the information reference through the communication network 300.

Here, the displacement information analysis and prediction means 230 means a conventional information processing computer, and a detailed description thereof will be omitted.

The monitoring system 400 is a general user (non-professional) system 410 for receiving and using displacement information analysis and prediction information through the communication network 300, and the displacement information analysis and prediction information through the communication network 300. And an information referrer system 420, which is an analytical expert that receives and notifies large scale damage or collapse of coastal shoreline facilities or establishes measures to prevent damage from large scale damage or collapse.

The state prediction method of the coastal coastal facilities according to the present invention using the state prediction system of the coastal coastal facilities configured as described above will be described in detail as follows.

The displacement measuring sensors included in the targets 101 to 104 installed on the indicators of the coastal revetment facility measure the displacement amount of the coastal revetment facility, and the signal processor of the displacement information transmitting means 130 processes the measured displacement information. If a terminal is connected to a data file, it is wired to the terminal. If the remote data is transmitted remotely, the wireless transmitter converts the data into a wireless data format corresponding to the communication network and wirelessly transmits the displacement information through the communication network. The measured displacement information includes sensor position information, section number information, and sensor position information of each cross section. In addition, the measured displacement information means displacement information of a target horizontally installed with respect to each same cross section. For example, assuming that four targets are installed vertically on the ground surface of a river control facility at regular intervals, and eight targets are installed horizontally on the same cross section, 32 displacements for one detection time point. Information is generated, and since eight displacement information are horizontally grouped into one group for the same cross section, four data groups can be obtained in the above case (S101 to S107).

The grouping information thus obtained is used to establish a representative cross section to estimate the fracture line of the embankment, that is, whether it will collapse to a deep or shallow fracture surface. The potential breakdown lines that can occur in the cross section to be analyzed are proportional to the number of sensors, and the analysis is performed in each step, including the number of cases.

Here, if the number of sensors installed based on each cross-section is less than five, a method of grouping and analyzing the entire cross-section may be applied.

The field system 100 may be implemented in parallel with a wired transmission method and a wireless transmission method as necessary.

The state predicting means 200 of the coastal revetment facility receives the displacement information transmitted from the displacement information transmitting means 130 through the displacement information receiving means 210, the displacement information receiving means 210 transmits the displacement information. Receive displacement information with a technical configuration corresponding to the means 130. For example, when the transmission means is a wired method (RS-485), the receiving means also has a wired configuration, and when the transmission means is a wireless system, the receiving means also has a wireless configuration.

When the displacement information receiving means 210 receives the displacement information of a plurality of targets installed in the vertical direction to the index of the coastal coastal facilities, the database server 220 stores it in the database 221, the displacement information analysis and prediction means The 230 may extract the state prediction value (basic indicator) of the stream control facility by applying the displacement information of the plurality of targets stored in the database 221 to a preset SAM algorithm.

관리도를 이용하며, 이러한 관리도는 판정을 위한 기본적인 지표를 산출하기 위한 것이다.That is, the present invention uses the concept of a control chart to determine whether or not instability, preferably

Control charts are used, which are for calculating basic indicators for judgment.

와 표준편차

로 정규분포하고 있는 것으로 가정하고, 표본

,

,....,

이 정규분포하는 변위 값으로부터 추출한 표본크기

의 개별계측치라 하면, 이 표본의 평균은 아래의 [수학식 1]과 같이 나타낼 수 있다.The measured target displacement value is average

And standard deviation

Assume that we are normally distributed with

,

, ....,

Sample size extracted from these normally distributed displacement values

In terms of individual measurements of, the mean of this sample can be expressed as Equation 1 below.

는 표본의 평균,

는 i번째의 표본,

은 표본의 수이다.here,

Is the mean of the sample,

Is the i th sample,

Is the number of samples.

는 평균

와 표준편차

로 정규분포함을 알 수 있으므로 정규분포의 한계를 확률로 나타내면 아래의 [수학식2]와 같다.From central theorem

Is average

And standard deviation

Since the normal distribution can be seen, the limit of the normal distribution can be expressed by Equation 2 below.

는 표본의 평균,

는 표본의 표준편차,

는 제1종 오류의 확률,

는 정규분포에서 제1종 오류를 제외한 상·하한값이다.here,

Is the mean of the sample,

Is the standard deviation of the sample,

Is the probability of type 1 error,

Is the upper and lower limits of the normal distribution excluding the type I error.

이다.The probability that any sample mean is within the following limits is 1-

to be.

은 표본의 평균,

은 표본의 표준오차,

는 제1종 오류의 확률,

는 정규분포에서 제1종 오류를 제외한 상·하한값,

는 표준편차,

은 표본의 수이다.Where LCL is the control chart lower limit, UCL is the control chart upper limit,

Is the mean of the sample,

Is the standard error of the sample,

Is the probability of type 1 error,

Is the upper and lower limits of the normal distribution excluding the Type I error,

Is the standard deviation,

Is the number of samples.

와 표준편차

를 알고 있다면 위의 [수학식 3]은 표본평균의 관리도에 있어서 관리도 상한값과 관리도 하한값으로 사용할 수 있다. 즉 3

한계를 사용한다면

대신에 3을 사용할 수 있다. 만일 표본평균

가 UCL의 위로, 그리고 LCL의 아래로 벗어나게 되면 표본평균은 관리 불능상태라고 한다. 즉 변위 값의 표준이

와 같지 않게 된다.Therefore, if the average of displacement values

And standard deviation

If Equation 3 is known, Equation 3 above can be used as the upper and lower control chart values in the control chart of the sample mean. 3

If you use limits

You can use 3 instead. If the sample mean

Is above the UCL and below the LCL, the sample mean is said to be unmanageable. The standard of displacement values

Will not be the same as

를 각 표본의 평균이라고 하면 변위 값의 평균

의 가장 좋은 예측치

는 다음의 [수학식4]를 통해 산출할 수 있다.

Is the mean of each sample, the mean of the displacement values

Best estimate of

Can be calculated through the following [Equation 4].

는 표본의 재평균(예측치),

는 i번째의 표본평균, k는 표본의 수이다.here,

Is the reaverage (prediction) of the sample,

Is the i-th sample mean, and k is the number of samples.

의 예측치

는

의 관리도 중심선(CL)으로 이용된다.Average of displacement values

Estimate

Is

The control of is also used as the center line (CL).

의 예측치가 필요한데, 이를 위해서는 표본 군의 범위를 이용하는 것이 일반적이다.Standard deviation for setting control chart limits

An estimate of is needed, which is usually done using a range of sample groups.

으로 구성되는 표본크기

의 표본 군에 대해 표본범위

은 아래의 [수학식5]를 통해 구한다.Individual measurements

Sample size consisting of

Sample range for

Is obtained from Equation 5 below.

는 개별계측치의 최대값을 나타내고,

는 개별계측치의 최소값을 나타낸다.

Indicates the maximum value of the individual measurement,

Is the minimum value of the individual measurement.

사이에는 중요한 관계가 성립하는데, 확률변수

로 표현할 수 있다. 이는 상대적 범위(relative range)라고 부르며, 정규분포를 하는 모집단으로부터 표본을 추출할 때

의 분포는 표본크기

에 의존한다.Sampling range and standard deviation of this distribution from normalized measurement data

An important relationship exists between the random variables

. This is called relative range, and when you sample from a population that is normally distributed

Distribution of sample size

Depends on

의 평균(기대값은)

인데, 이값은 도 5에 도시된 관리한계 계수표와 같이 표본크기

에 따라 결정된다.

Of (the expected value is)

This value is the sample size as shown in the control limit coefficient table shown in FIG.

It depends on.

의 예측치에 대해 정리하면,

즉

이므로,

는 다음과 같이 정리된다.At this time,

If we sum up about estimate of,

In other words

Because of,

Is summarized as follows.

는 확률변수의 예측치,

은 표본범위의 예측치,

는 확률변수의 평균값(기대값)이다.here,

Is the predicted value of the random variable,

Is an estimate of the sample range,

Is the mean value (expected value) of the random variable.

이므로, 표준편차

의 예측치

는

이 된다.By the way,

Standard deviation

Estimate

Is

Becomes

의 예측치로

를, 표준편차

의 예측치로

를 이용하고,

를 3으로 놓으면

관리도 파라미터들은 다음의 [수학식7]과 같이 정리된다.Average

With an estimate of

, Standard deviation

With an estimate of

Using

If you set it to 3

Control chart parameters are arranged as shown in Equation 7 below.

은 표본 크기

의 함수이므로 [수학식 8]는 다음과 같이 정리될 수 있다.Management limit factor

Silver sample size

Equation 8 can be summarized as follows.

에 따른 상수

의 값은 도 4에서와 같이 정리될 수 있다.Sample size

Constant

The value of can be summarized as in FIG.

은 표준편차와 관련이 있으므로 분산은 관리도에

값을 차례로 타점 함으로써 관리할 수 있다. 이 관리도가

관리도인데

관리도의 중심선과 관리한계는 다음과 같다.Sample range

Is related to the standard deviation, so the variance

It can be managed by hitting values one by one. This chart

Control chart

The center line and management limits of the control chart are as follows.

은 표본범위의 평균,

은 표본범위의 표준편차이다.here,

Is the mean of the sample range,

Is the standard deviation of the sample range.

의 분포에서 표준편차

의 예측치

을 필요로 한다. 데이터 특성이 정규분포를 한다고 가정하면

은 상대적으로 범위

의 분포로부터 구할 수 있다.

의 표준편차를

라 하면 분산(

)=분산(

)=

분산(

)이 되며,

이므로 , 결과적으로

이 성립한다.Sample range to determine control limits

Standard deviation in the distribution of

Estimate

need. Suppose your data properties are normally distributed

Is relatively in range

It can be obtained from the distribution of.

The standard deviation of

Say variance (

) = Variance (

) =

Dispersion(

),

As a result,

This holds true.

는 알 수 없는 값이므로 그 추정치인

를 이용하여야 하는데, 이를 다시 정리하면

이 된다.

Is an unknown value, so its estimate is

You should use

Becomes

의 추정치인

은 아래의 식을 이용하여 산출할 수 있다.At this time,

Is an estimate of

Can be calculated using the following equation.

는 표본범위 표준편차의 추정치,

는 표본범위의 평균,

는 확률변수(

)의 평균값,

은 확률변수(

) 표준편차의 기대치이다.here,

Is an estimate of the standard deviation of the sample range,

Is the mean of the sample range,

Is a random variable (

) Mean value,

Is a random variable (

) Is the expectation of the standard deviation.

관리한계를 사용하는

관리도의 파라미터는 다음의 식과 같다.

Using control limits

The parameters of the control chart are as follows.

와

는 다음의 [수학식 12]와 같은데, 이를 이용하여 [수학식 11]을 정리하면 다음과 같다.Also, the management limit coefficient

Wow

Is the same as [Equation 12], using the following equation [11] is summarized as follows.

는 확률변수(

)의 평균값,

은 확률변수(

) 표준편차의 기대치이며,

와

는 관리한계 계수이다.here,

Is a random variable (

) Mean value,

Is a random variable (

) Is the expectation of the standard deviation,

Wow

Is the control limit coefficient.

와

의 값은 도 4a ~ 도4e에 주어져 있다.At this time,

Wow

Is given in Figs. 4A to 4E.

알고리즘에 적용하여 해안 호안시설물의 상태를 최종적으로 판단하게 된다(S109 ~ S111).As previously known, the estimated value

It is finally applied to the algorithm to determine the state of coastal coastal facilities (S109 ~ S111).

In other words, the target displacement value measured as shown in FIG. 4A is applied to Rule 1 for determining an unstable slope to determine the slope. Rule 1 determines that the slope is unstable if the displacement value at one point is outside the control limits (UCL, LCL). This rule is the most commonly used rule. If the slope is stable when using the 3σ limit, the probability that one displacement is out of the limit is about 0.26%.

4B is a decision rule 2, in which when two of the three consecutive displacement values deviate from the 2σ limit on one side of the center line, the slope is determined to be unstable. A warning limit can be set at 2σ from the centerline, which assumes that the slope is unstable if two of the three consecutive displacement values fall outside this limit.

Fig. 4C is a decision rule 3, and it is determined that the slope is unstable when four out of five consecutive displacements deviate from the 1σ limit on one side of the center line.

FIG. 4D is a decision rule 4, in which when the eight or more consecutive displacement values exist on one side of the center line, it is determined that this slope is unstable.

Fig. 4E is the decision rule 5, and it is determined that the slope is unstable when eight consecutive displacement values make a run. There are many forms of run. A run is an arrangement of continuous displacement values, in which the displacement values are not only continuously arranged to one side of the center line but also the continuous displacement values are arranged upward or downward. Five consecutive displacement values corresponding to sample numbers 8 to 12 run under the center line, and eight consecutive RBIs corresponding to sample numbers 13 to 20 run downward through the center line.

The state and judgment information of the coastal coastal facilities determined in this way are used by a manager (a professional manager who manages coastal coastal facilities) and a general user (the information using a communication network such as the Internet or a text transmission method such as SMS) in step S113. Is sent to the non-professional as a user using it.

The manager shall check the status and judgment information of the transmitted coastal shoreline facilities and issue an alert and promptly follow up the shoreline if it is determined that the coastal shoreline facilities may show signs of major damage or may collapse. Minimize the damage caused by large-scale damage or collapse of shoreline facilities.

The present invention is not limited to the above-described specific preferred embodiments, and various modifications can be made by any person having ordinary skill in the art without departing from the gist of the present invention claimed in the claims. Of course, such changes will fall within the scope of the claims.

1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a field system to which the present invention is applied;

Figure 2a and Figure 2b is a block diagram of a state prediction system of coastal coastal facilities in the present invention.

Figure 3 is a flow chart showing a state prediction method of the coastal shoreline facilities according to the present invention.

Figures 4a to 4e is a characteristic graph for explaining the rules for predicting the state of coastal revetment facilities in the present invention.

5 is a control limit coefficient table applied to the present invention.

<Explanation of symbols for the main parts of the drawings>

100... Field system

101 to 104. target

111 to 114... pole

130... Displacement information transmission means

200... Means of predicting the condition of coastal shoreline facilities

220... Database server

230... Displacement information analysis and determination means

300... communications network

Claims (5)

In the method of predicting the condition of coastal shoreline facilities, A measuring step of measuring displacement of the target by using a displacement sensing sensor stacked in a vertical direction on the ground surface of the coastal shoreline facility; Grouping displacement information of the target measured in the measuring step; And And a state prediction step of predicting a state of coastal shoreline facilities by analyzing the displacement information of the grouped targets. The method of claim 1, wherein the grouping of the displacement information of the target includes: A method for predicting the condition of coastal shoreline facilities comprising grouping displacement information of horizontal targets installed in the same section into one group. The method of claim 1, wherein the predicting the state comprises: And comparing the displacement information of the grouped targets with a plurality of preset condition values in order to predict the state of the coastal revetment facility, and predicting the condition of the coastal revetment facility according to the magnitude of the coastal revetment facility. State Prediction Method. The method of claim 3, wherein the plurality of condition values include a control chart center value, a control chart lower limit value, a control chart upper limit value, a warning limit value, and a standard deviation (σ). The method of claim 4, wherein the state prediction step comprises: If at least one or more of the displacement values of one grouped horizontal multiple target exceeds the predetermined control upper limit or falls below the lower limit, the coastal shoreline facility is predicted to be unstable. Predicts that the coastal shoreline installation is unstable if at least two deviations from the two displacement values deviate from a preset warning limit value, and at least four of the five consecutive displacement values deviate from the standard deviation of the center of control chart. It is predicted that the coastal revetment facility is unstable, and if the continuous eight displacement values exist on one side of the center line, the coastal revetment facility is unstable, and when the consecutive eight or more displacement values make a run, the coastal revetment Prediction of the condition of coastal shoreline facilities characterized by predicting unstable facilities Law.

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