KR102538077B1 - System and method for forecasting maximum generation limit of renewable energy - Google Patents

Abstract

Provides a system and method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy. The system for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy includes i) a power centralized data storage unit that provides generation amount and tide information, ii) a power centralized data storage unit, and includes a new renewable next-day output prediction information unit, A calculation unit that predicts the next-day maximum power generation limit of new renewable energy from the next-day output prediction information of the next day of renewable energy, power generation and current information of the next day output prediction information unit, iii) It is connected to the calculation unit to visualize the limit value of the maximum power generation of the next day of renewable energy and iv) a control unit connected to and controlling the power centralized data storage unit, the arithmetic unit, and the display unit, respectively.

Description

System and method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of new and renewable energy {SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING MAXIMUM GENERATION LIMIT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY}

The present invention relates to a system and method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy.

Output control due to excessive power generation is necessary in spring or autumn when electricity demand is low according to output fluctuations of new and renewable energy. In addition, due to the increase in new renewable energy, the number of control outputs and control amount of new renewable energy are also increasing. This phenomenon is expected to increase in frequency with the increase in renewable energy not only on islands but also on land.

In particular, power sources with high variability depending on weather conditions, such as photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation, may cause instability by causing problems such as overvoltage or overload in power facilities, thereby increasing difficulties in power system operation. In addition, since the amount of power generation may exceed the power facility rating according to the increase in renewable energy, it is necessary to consider the maximum power generation limit of renewable energy.

Korean Patent Publication No. 2012-0135775

It is intended to provide a system that can precisely predict the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy and reflect it in system operation. In addition, it is intended to provide a method for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of such renewable energy.

The system for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention is connected to i) a power centralized data storage unit that provides power generation and current information, ii) a power centralized data storage unit, and renewable Includes next-day output prediction information unit, and a calculation unit that predicts the next-day maximum power generation threshold value of new renewable energy from the next-day output prediction information of the next day of renewable energy, power generation and current information of the next-day output prediction information unit of renewable energy, iii) Renewable energy connected to the calculation unit and a display unit that visualizes and outputs the next-day maximum generation limit value of energy, and iv) a control unit that is connected to and controls the power centralized data storage unit, calculation unit, and display unit, respectively.

The system for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention may further include a maximum generation threshold value data storage unit of renewable energy connected to the calculation unit. The new renewable energy next-day maximum generation threshold data storage unit may receive the renewable energy next-day maximum generation threshold value from the calculation unit or provide another renewable energy next-day maximum generation threshold value to the calculation unit.

The calculation unit is i) a power system state estimation unit, ii) a current power system information unit that is connected to the power system state estimation unit and receives the estimated power system state from the power system state estimation unit to generate an output control status, iii) a current The next-day 24-hour load prediction unit connected to the power system information unit and the renewable next-day output prediction information unit to adjust the load and thermal power generation amount, and iv) The next-day 24-hour load prediction unit connected to the next day 24-hour load estimation unit to adjust the renewable generation amount and thermal power generation amount A time power output prediction unit may be further included. The calculation unit may further include i) a next-day 24-hour power output prediction unit connected to a stability checker and ii) a renewable energy next-day maximum power generation limit prediction unit connected to the stability checker.

The stability inspection unit analyzes the factors constituting the power system stability generated from the next day 24-hour power output prediction unit, and if one of the factors exceeds the preset stability standard, the predicted value of the maximum generation limit of renewable energy is calculated. It can be output through the limit value predictor. Factors include static stability and dynamic stability, static stability includes voltage stability, facility overvoltage, facility overload, and short circuit ratio (SCR), and dynamic stability includes transient stability, overvoltage, frequency regulation, and frequency maintenance range can include

The method for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention uses a system for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy including an interconnected power centralized data storage unit, an arithmetic unit, and a display unit. The method for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention includes i) providing current power system information by the centralized power data storage unit, ii) the next day by the centralized power data storage unit of renewable energy Step of providing output prediction information, iii) step of the calculation unit predicting the next day's 24-hour load from the current power system information and renewable next-day output prediction information, iv) next-day 24-hour power from the calculation unit's predicted next-day 24-hour load In the step of predicting the output, v) the calculation unit analyzes the factors constituting the power system stability generated in the step of predicting the power output for the next 24 hours, and determines whether any one of the factors violates the predetermined stability standard. vi) predicting the limit value of the next day maximum generation of renewable energy when the calculation unit determines that the predetermined stability criterion is violated, and vii) visualizing the prediction of the maximum generation limit value of the next day maximum generation of renewable energy by the display unit. include

The method for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention includes predicting power output for the next 24 hours from the predicted load for the next day for 24 hours, when all factors do not violate a predetermined stability criterion. It may further include the step of repeating.

In the step of determining whether a predetermined stability criterion is violated, the factors include static stability and dynamic stability, and the static stability includes voltage stability, facility overvoltage, facility overload, and short circuit ratio (SCR), and dynamic stability includes transient It may include stability, overvoltage, frequency change rate, and frequency maintenance range. In the step of estimating the next day's maximum power generation limit of new and renewable energy, the maximum power generation limit of the next day of new and renewable energy can be predicted when connecting to one or more objects selected from the group consisting of the entire system, substation, and main transformer.

In the step of estimating the next day's 24-hour load, the amount of thermal power generation can be adjusted. In the step of estimating the next day's 24-hour power output, the amount of renewable power generation and the amount of thermal power generation can be adjusted. The system for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention may further include a maximum generation threshold value data storage unit of renewable energy connected to the display unit. The method for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention may further include the step of creating a database of the next day's maximum generation threshold of renewable energy in a data storage unit of the maximum generation threshold of new and renewable energy. The database may include one or more pieces of data selected from the group consisting of a power facility unit, a maximum power generation threshold (MW), a power system accident type, and stability standard violation details.

The system operator can stably operate the power system by predicting the maximum generation threshold of new and renewable energy, comparing it with the predicted generation value of new and renewable energy in advance, and responding to it. In addition, it is possible to reduce variability and uncertainty by predicting the maximum power generation limit value of new and renewable energy for each power facility such as a transmission line, a substation, and a main transformer. And it is possible to stabilize the unstable power system by renewable energy.

1 is a schematic block diagram of a system for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 3 is a graph schematically showing the renewable energy next day output prediction step of Figure 2.
FIG. 4 is a graph schematically illustrating the next-day 24-hour power output prediction step of FIG. 2 .
5 to 7 are diagrams showing various application examples of the method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy of FIG. 2 .
FIG. 8 is a graph schematically illustrating the visualization step of predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy of FIG. 2 .

The terminology used herein is intended only to refer to specific embodiments and is not intended to limit the present invention. As used herein, the singular forms also include the plural forms unless the phrases clearly indicate the opposite. As used herein, the meaning of "comprising" specifies specific characteristics, regions, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, and other specific characteristics, regions, integers, steps, operations, elements, elements, and/or groups. does not exclude the presence or addition of

Although not defined differently, all terms including technical terms and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those of ordinary skill in the art to which the present invention belongs. Terms defined in commonly used dictionaries are additionally interpreted as having meanings consistent with related technical literature and currently disclosed content, and are not interpreted in ideal or very formal meanings unless defined.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings so that those skilled in the art can easily carry out the present invention. However, the present invention may be embodied in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein.

Figure 1 schematically shows a block diagram of a maximum generation threshold prediction system 100 of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention. The maximum generation threshold value prediction system 100 of renewable energy of FIG. 1 is only for exemplifying the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, the system for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy can be modified differently.

As shown in FIG. 1, the system for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy 100 includes a power centralized data storage unit 10, an arithmetic unit 20, a display unit 30, a control unit 40, and Renewable energy maximum generation threshold value data storage unit 50 is included. In addition, the maximum generation threshold value prediction system 100 may further include other components.

The power centralized data storage unit 10 provides generation amount and tide information. The amount of power generation and tidal current information are used to predict the maximum power generation threshold for the next day of renewable energy.

The computing unit 20 is connected with the power centralized data storage unit 10 . The arithmetic unit 20 predicts the next-day maximum power generation limit of new and renewable energy from the next-day output prediction information, power generation amount and tidal current information. To this end, the calculation unit 20 includes a power system state estimation unit 201, a current power system information unit 203, a renewable next-day output prediction information unit 205, a next-day 24-hour load prediction unit 207, and a next-day 24-hour power output. It includes a predictor 209, a stability checker 211, and a next-day maximum power generation limit predictor 213 for renewable energy. In addition, the arithmetic unit 20 may further include other components.

Here, the power system state estimation unit 201 estimates the power system state. The current power system information unit 203 is connected to the power system state estimation unit 201 . The current power system information unit 203 receives the estimated power system status from the power system status estimation unit 201 and generates the output control status. The new renewable next day output prediction information unit 205 generates new renewable next day output prediction information. And the next day 24-hour load prediction unit 207 is connected to the current power system information unit 203 and the renewable next day output prediction information unit 205. The current power system information unit 203 transmits information such as weather data or load performance data to the load prediction unit 207 for 24 hours on the next day. Then, the new renewable energy next day output prediction information unit 205 transmits information such as active power or new renewable energy output predicted amount to the next day 24-hour load predicting unit 207 . The next-day 24-hour load prediction unit 207 predicts the next-day 24-hour load based on these information in Equation 1 below.

[Equation 1]

Next day 24-hour load prediction unit 207 adjusts the load and thermal power generation amount. Next day 24-hour power output prediction unit 209 is connected to the next day 24-hour load prediction unit 207. Next-day 24-hour power output predictor 209 predicts next-day 24-hour power output according to Equation 2 below using the data of next-day 24-hour load predictor 207.

[Equation 2]

Next day 24-hour power output = Previous day 24-hour power output + Next day 24-hour load forecast

The next day 24-hour power output prediction unit 209 adjusts the amount of renewable power generation and the amount of thermal power generation.

On the other hand, the stability check unit 211 is connected to the next day 24-hour power output predictor 209. The stability checking unit 211 analyzes the factors constituting the power system stability generated from the next day 24-hour power output prediction unit 209, and if any one of these factors exceeds the predetermined stability standard, the predicted value of the maximum generation limit of renewable energy is calculated. It is output through the new and renewable energy next-day maximum power generation threshold prediction unit 213.

The predicted value of the maximum generation limit of renewable energy can be derived through Equation 3 below using factors such as renewable output prediction or power output prediction derived from the power output prediction unit. That is, when any one of the predicted limit values of voltage stability, transient stability, overvoltage, undervoltage, overfrequency, underfrequency, and frequency stability reaches a preset minimum value and exceeds the preset stability standard, the new and renewable maximum generation limit prediction value is output. .

[Equation 3]

Renewable maximum generation limit predicted value = MIN (limit predicted value_voltage _stability , limit _predicted value_transient stability, limit predicted _{value_overvoltage} , limit predicted value_low voltage, limit predicted value_over _frequency , limit predicted _{value_low frequency} , limit predicted _{value_frequency stability} )

On the other hand, conversely, if all the factors do not exceed the predetermined stability standard, the next day's 24-hour power output prediction unit 209 predicts and calculates the next day's 24-hour power output.

Here, the factors include static stability and dynamic stability. Static stability includes voltage stability, facility overvoltage, facility overload, and short circuit ratio (SCR). And dynamic stability includes transient stability, overvoltage, frequency change rate and frequency maintenance range. Looking at the aforementioned factors, voltage stability is based on whether voltage stability is maintained in the event of a system failure. In addition, overvoltage and undervoltage of facilities are set to more than 1.1pu and less than 0.9pu, respectively. In addition, facility overload exceeds rated capacity, for example, power transformer is 60MVA, and transmission line is permissible current for each line. Allowable current is different for each line. The short circuit ratio is 3.0. Transient stability is based on maintaining synchronization of the generator phase angle in the event of a system failure. The frequency change rate is based on 8 Hz / s, and the frequency maintenance range is based on 59.2 Hz to 60.2 Hz.

The display unit 30 is connected with the arithmetic unit 20 . The display unit 30 visualizes and outputs the maximum power generation limit value for the next day of renewable energy.

The control unit 40 is connected to the power centralized data storage unit 10, the calculation unit 20, the display unit 30 and the renewable energy maximum generation limit value data storage unit 50, respectively. The control unit 40 automatically controls these parts according to the program.

Renewable energy maximum generation threshold value data storage unit 50 is connected to the calculation unit (20). The renewable energy maximum power generation threshold value data storage unit 50 receives and stores the maximum generation threshold value for the next day of renewable energy from the arithmetic unit 40 . And, if necessary, the calculation unit 50 is provided with another renewable energy next day maximum power generation limit.

Figure 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention. The method for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy of FIG. 2 is only for exemplifying the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, the method of predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy can be modified differently.

As shown in FIG. 2, the method for predicting the maximum generation threshold of new and renewable energy includes the step of providing current power system information and next-day output prediction information for new and renewable energy (S10), from the current power system information and next-day output prediction information for renewable energy. Predicting next day 24-hour load (S20), predicting next-day 24-hour power output from predicted next-day 24-hour load (S30), determining whether stability criteria are violated (S40), renewable energy next day maximum A step of predicting the generation threshold value (S50), and a step of visualizing the prediction of the maximum generation threshold value for the next day of renewable energy (S60). In addition, the method for predicting the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy may further include other steps.

In step S10, current power system information is provided. It also provides information on forecasting next-day output of renewable energy. That is, it provides renewable output prediction information for 24 hours on the next day. By inputting these information, it is possible to obtain the necessary information for 24-hour load prediction on the next day. Hereinafter, the next-day output prediction step of renewable energy will be described in more detail with reference to FIG. 3 .

Figure 3 is a graph schematically showing the renewable energy next day output prediction step of Figure 2. The renewable energy next day output prediction step of FIG. 3 is only for exemplifying the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, the step of predicting the next-day output of renewable energy can be modified differently.

Figure 3 shows an example of wind power generation among renewable energy generation as an example. 3, power generation output, power generation output control, and wind speed are respectively represented by lines.

As shown in FIG. 3, it is predicted that the output of wind power generation varies greatly over the next 24 hours depending on the wind speed. That is, as the wind speed increases, the power generation output increases, and as the wind speed decreases, the power generation output decreases. In one embodiment of the present invention, a method of controlling the wind power generation output to maintain it at 5 MW or less from 9:00 to 14:00 is exemplified. Solar power is similar. That is, since the wind speed and the amount of sunlight for the next 24 hours can be predicted, based on this, it is possible to predict the next day's output of renewable energy.

Returning to FIG. 2 again, in step S20, the next day's 24-hour load is predicted through the current power system information and the renewable next day's output prediction information. Next-day load prediction can be made by combining renewable next-day output prediction with the current power system. Accordingly, the amount of thermal power generation can be adjusted. That is, since new and renewable power generation has a higher power generation priority than thermal power generation, the output value of thermal power generation is adjusted. As a result, the total amount of power generation remains the same.

In step S30, power output for the next 24 hours is predicted. That is, from the 24-hour load prediction of the next day in step S20, power output for the next 24 hours can be predicted. In the renewable generation variation scenario, if the amount of new and renewable energy generation is increased or decreased, the stability of the power system is lowered. Therefore, the stability is increased by controlling the amount of new and renewable energy generation and thermal power generation together. This will be described in detail below with reference to FIG. 4 .

FIG. 4 is a graph schematically illustrating the 24-hour power output prediction step (S30) of FIG. 2 . This next-day 24-hour power output prediction step is only for exemplifying the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, the next day 24-hour power output estimation step may be modified differently.

As shown in FIG. 4, the solar power and the power generation of the control target wind power generator are located above the power generation of the connection line and the central power supply generator. From 7:00 to 19:00, when sunlight is sufficient, solar power accounts for a large proportion. Therefore, during this time, while minimizing the amount of power generation by the wind power, the control amount is secured by controlling the central feed power generation, that is, the thermal power generation together. That is, the stability can be increased by adjusting the amount of new renewable energy generation and the amount of thermal power generation together.

Returning to FIG. 2 again, in step S40, the factors constituting the power system stability generated in step S30 are analyzed. Here, the factors are the same as those previously described in the stability checking unit 211 (shown in FIG. 1 ). In step S40, it is determined whether any one of the factors violates a predetermined stability criterion. If any one of the factors violates the preset stability standard, it moves to step S50 and predicts and outputs the maximum power generation limit for the next day of renewable energy. In this case, the violated stability criteria are also output. Conversely, when all the factors do not violate the preset stability criteria, it moves to step S40 and repeats the next day's 24-hour power output prediction from the predicted next-day's 24-hour load.

In step (S50), the maximum power generation limit value for the next day of renewable energy is predicted according to the violation of the stability criterion in step (S40). The maximum generation threshold of new and renewable energy is determined by system stability. System stability is divided into voltage stability, transient stability, overload, overvoltage, and frequency fluctuation rate. In order to maintain system stability, it predicts the maximum power generation limit for the next 24 hours of renewable energy, predicts the appropriate output control amount, and reflects it in operation.

In step S50, the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy for the next 24 hours is predicted. As the amount of renewable energy incorporated into the power system increases, load variability and uncertainty occur, and the power system becomes unstable. Therefore, it can be prevented by predicting the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy.

The limit value of the maximum generation of new and renewable energy for the next 24 hours is predicted for each power facility constituting the power system. Power facilities are transmission lines, substations, main transformers or distribution lines. Among these, for example, it is assumed that the installed capacity of new and renewable energy connected to the main transformer is increased to the maximum output in order to predict the limit value of the maximum generation of new and renewable energy for the next 24 hours from the main transformer of the substation. Renewable energy facilities such as wind power generation or photovoltaic power generation are connected to a power transmission network exceeding 154 kV or a distribution network of 22.9 kV or less depending on the capacity of the power generation facility and the size of the link voltage. Power generated by new and renewable energy facilities may be directly consumed in an area where a substation connected thereto is located or may be transmitted to other power demand areas through transmission lines.

That is, the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy is predicted when connected to targets such as the entire system, substation, or main voltage generator. This will be described in detail below with reference to FIGS. 5 to 7 .

5 to 7 show various application examples of the method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy of FIG. 2 . More specifically, FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy connected to the entire system, and FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of a method of predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy connected to a substation. It is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting the maximum power generation limit value of renewable energy connected to the main transformer. 5 to 7 are only for illustrating an application case of the method for predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy of FIG. 2, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, it is possible to apply a different method of predicting the maximum power generation threshold value of renewable energy.

As shown in the dotted rectangle in FIG. 5 , the maximum generation limit of renewable energy in the entire system connected to the small-scale wind and solar power on the left as well as the large-scale wind and solar farm on the right is predicted. That is, since renewable energy may be transmitted to other regions along transmission lines, the entire system may become unstable. Therefore, the maximum generation limit of renewable energy for the entire system is predicted.

On the other hand, as shown in the dotted rectangle in Figure 6, it is possible to predict the maximum generation limit of renewable energy in a smaller area than the entire system. That is, it is possible to predict the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy connected to a substation connected to a grid exceeding 154 kV in an area limited to a small-scale wind and solar power on the left side and a large-scale wind farm and photovoltaic power plant on the right.

And, as shown in the dotted rectangle in FIG. 7, the maximum power generation limit of renewable energy connected to a bus main voltage of 22.9 kV or less can be predicted. That is, the maximum power generation limit of renewable energy connected to the main voltage is predicted in the area limited to small-scale wind power and sunlight on the left side.

Returning to FIG. 2 again, in step S60, the prediction of the maximum power generation limit value for the next day of renewable energy is visualized. In other words, it is automatically visualized so that the system operator can monitor the prediction of the maximum power generation threshold for the next day of renewable energy. As a result, the margin of additional generation of new and renewable energy can be confirmed through the difference between the predicted amount of new and renewable power generation and the predicted amount of new and renewable power generation. This will be described in more detail with reference to FIG. 8 .

8 schematically shows the visualization step (S60) of predicting the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy of FIG. The visualization of the maximum generation threshold value of renewable energy in FIG. 8 is only for exemplifying the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Therefore, it is possible to visualize the prediction of the maximum generation limit value of renewable energy differently.

In FIG. 8, the lower line is the result of predicting the amount of new and renewable energy generation, and the upper line is the predicted maximum generation limit value of the new and renewable energy. The lower part of FIG. 8 shows detailed information, such as the maximum power generation limit value, power system accident type, and stability standard violations. 8 shows the predicted value of new and renewable energy generation based on the operation monitoring data of the power system and the prediction result of the maximum generation limit value of new and renewable energy. Therefore, the power facility operator can simultaneously monitor the prediction of the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy and the prediction result of new and renewable energy. In addition, when the new renewable energy approaches the predicted maximum power generation limit, measures can be taken to maintain the stability of the power system.

On the other hand, it is possible to build a database by extracting the maximum generation threshold value prediction data from the maximum generation threshold value prediction result of new and renewable energy. The database includes the power facility unit, maximum generation threshold (MW), power system accident type or stability standard violation details, etc. In the case of diagramming a two-dimensional graph consisting of the time axis of new and renewable power generation and the power generation axis of FIG. 8, it may be based on the above database.

Although the present invention has been described as described above, those skilled in the art to which the present invention belongs will readily understand that various modifications and variations are possible without departing from the concept and scope of the claims described below.

10. Centralized control data storage unit 20. Calculation unit
30. Display unit 40. Control unit
50. Renewable energy maximum generation limit value data storage unit
100. System for predicting the maximum power generation threshold of new and renewable energy
201. Power system state estimation unit 203. Current power system information unit
205. Renewable Energy Next Day Output Forecast Information Department
207. Next day 24-hour load prediction unit
209. Next day 24-hour power output prediction unit
211. Stability check unit
213. Renewable energy next day maximum power generation threshold prediction unit

Claims (12)

As a system for predicting the maximum power generation limit value of new and renewable energy,
A power centralized data storage unit that provides power generation and tide information;
It is connected to the power centralized data storage unit, and includes a renewable next-day output prediction information unit, and the renewable energy next-day maximum power generation limit from the renewable next-day output prediction information, the power generation amount, and the tidal current information of the new renewable next-day output prediction information unit. an arithmetic unit that predicts a value;
A display unit connected to the calculation unit to visualize and output the limit value of the next day maximum generation of renewable energy, and
A control unit connected to the power centralized data storage unit, the calculation unit, and the display unit to control the power centralized data storage unit, the calculation unit, and the display unit.
Maximum power generation threshold prediction system including. In paragraph 1,
Further comprising a renewable energy maximum generation limit value data storage unit connected to the calculation unit,
The renewable energy maximum generation threshold data storage unit receives the renewable energy next-day maximum generation threshold from the calculation unit or predicts the maximum generation threshold value to provide another renewable energy next-day maximum generation threshold to the calculation unit. system. In paragraph 1,
The calculation unit is
power system condition estimation unit,
A current power system information unit that is connected to the power system state estimation unit and generates an output control status by receiving an estimated power system state from the power system state estimation unit;
A next-day 24-hour load prediction unit connected to the current power system information unit and the renewable next-day output prediction information unit to adjust the load and thermal power generation amount, and
Next-day 24-hour power output prediction unit connected to the next-day 24-hour load estimation unit to adjust the amount of renewable generation and the amount of thermal power generation
Maximum power generation threshold prediction system further comprising a. In paragraph 3,
The calculation unit is a stability check unit connected to the next day 24-hour power output prediction unit and
Renewable energy next day maximum power generation threshold prediction unit connected to the stability check unit
Including more,
The stability checking unit analyzes the factors constituting the power system stability generated from the next-day 24-hour power output prediction unit, and if any one of the factors exceeds a predetermined stability standard, the predicted value of the maximum generation limit of the new and renewable energy is calculated. Maximum generation threshold prediction system that outputs through the maximum generation threshold prediction unit for the next day of energy. In paragraph 4,
The factors include static stability and dynamic stability, wherein the static stability includes voltage stability, facility overvoltage, facility overload, and short circuit ratio (SCR), and the dynamic stability includes transient stability, overvoltage, frequency change rate, and Maximum generation limit value prediction system including frequency maintenance range. As a method for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy in a system for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy including an interconnected power centralized data storage unit, an arithmetic unit, and a display unit,
providing current power system information by the power centralized data storage unit;
Providing, by the power centralized data storage unit, next-day output prediction information for renewable energy;
Predicting, by the calculation unit, the next day's 24-hour load from the current power system information and the renewable next day's output prediction information;
predicting, by the computing unit, the next 24-hour power output from the predicted next-day 24-hour load;
Determining whether any one of the factors constituting the power system stability generated in the step of predicting the next day's 24-hour power output by the calculation unit violates a predetermined stability criterion;
When the calculation unit determines that the predetermined stability criterion is violated, predicting a maximum power generation limit value for the next day of renewable energy, and
Visualizing, by the display unit, the prediction of the maximum power generation limit for the next day of the renewable energy
A method for predicting the maximum power generation limit value of renewable energy including. In paragraph 6,
When all of the factors do not violate the predetermined stability criterion, the step of repeating the step of predicting the next day's 24-hour power output from the predicted next-day 24-hour load prediction method. In paragraph 6,
In the step of determining whether the preset stability criterion is violated, the factors include static stability and dynamic stability, and the static stability includes voltage stability, facility overvoltage, facility overload, and short circuit ratio (SCR), wherein the Dynamic stability is a method for predicting the maximum power generation limit including transient stability, overvoltage, frequency change rate and frequency maintenance range. In paragraph 6,
In the step of estimating the next-day maximum power generation limit of new and renewable energy, the maximum power generation limit of the next day of renewable energy is predicted when connecting to one or more objects selected from the group consisting of the entire system, substation, and main transformer. method. In paragraph 6,
In the step of predicting the 24-hour load on the next day, the maximum power generation threshold value prediction method in which the amount of thermal power generation is adjusted. In paragraph 6,
In the step of predicting the next day's 24-hour power output, the maximum power generation threshold prediction method in which the amount of renewable power generation and the amount of thermal power generation are adjusted. In paragraph 11,
The system for predicting the maximum generation threshold of renewable energy further includes a maximum generation threshold data storage unit of renewable energy connected to the display unit,
Further comprising the step of making a database of the maximum generation threshold of the next day of the renewable energy in the new and renewable energy maximum generation threshold value data storage unit,
The database includes one or more data selected from the group consisting of a power facility unit, a maximum generation threshold (MW), a power system accident type, and a stability standard violation history.

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