KR102380377B1 - Management system of endogenous variables for reflecting forecasting errors of local revenues of local government and management method thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to an endogenous variable management system for maximizing income of a local government's ordinary allocation tax and an operation method thereof. More specifically, statistical information used for allocation of ordinary allocation tax is applied by being divided into exogenous variables incapable of being controlled by local governments and endogenous variables capable of being controlled. When the ordinary allocation tax for the year is applied, a difference between the estimated revenue and the final revenue before a predetermined year (year t-2) on the basis of the year (year t) for each type of basic income for each local government, the estimated value of error settlement for each local government (t+1 and t+2 years) is predicted, the error settlement is divided by the set number of years within three years, so that reasonable information on whether to reflect corrected income, thereby maximizing ordinary allocation tax revenue for local governments.

Description

Management system of endogenous variables for reflecting forecasting errors of local revenues of local government and management method thereof

The present invention relates to an endogenous variable management system and operation method for maximizing the income from ordinary distribution tax of local governments. Classify and apply as an endogenous variable that exists, but when applying the ordinary subsidy tax for that year, the difference between the estimated revenue and the confirmed revenue before a certain year (year t-2) of the current year (year t) by type of basic income for each local government After calculating the estimated value (t+1, t+2 years) of the error settlement for each local government, the error settlement amount is divided by the number of years set within three years, and reasonable information on whether or not to be reflected in the normal delivery tax corrected income is provided. It relates to an endogenous variable management system and operation method to maximize the income of local governments by providing them from ordinary subsidy tax.

In general, local governments, like the state, establish local finances to procure and use goods for the purpose of obtaining and disbursing income necessary for their activities.

When establishing finances, local governments shall establish finances to be used for administrative services for residents of the relevant local governments, and expand financial resources accordingly.

The most desirable method of financing for local governments to provide these administrative services is a local tax that the local governments can collect and use freely. However, due to the centralization of tax resources and the imbalance of tax sources between regions, it is virtually impossible for all local governments to meet their necessary financial resources with local tax revenue.

Therefore, for organizations that are unable to secure the financial resources necessary to provide standard administrative services with only local taxes collected from local residents, the central government will conserve financial resources according to the degree of the shortage, thereby resolving the ubiquity of tax sources and financial imbalances between regions. The local allocation tax is responsible for the central function of the fiscal adjustment system that guarantees financial resources so that all local governments can secure a certain level of administration.

In particular, the ordinary distribution tax among local allocation taxes is a financial resource that local governments always want to receive because there is no limit on the amount, there is no burden of local expenses, and there is no obligation to report settlement and audit afterwards.

For the purpose of equalizing the financial power of local governments, the ordinary subsidy tax is unilaterally issued by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security based on objective statistics and formulas, not through the application of local governments, with 19.24% of the internal tax as a financial resource.

The ordinary distribution tax distribution formula calculates the standard financial demand and standard financial income to which the statistical information used to calculate the ordinary delivery tax is applied for each local government, and sets the difference as the fiscal shortfall. Calculate.

As described above, in the conventional ordinary delivery tax distribution system to which the ordinary distribution tax distribution formula is applied, there are too many variables in statistical information, that is, because the distribution formula is complex, there is a problem in that it is difficult for local governments to track the process.

In addition, the conventional ordinary distribution tax distribution system recognizes that local governments cannot control all the variables of the complex distribution formula, so that they have neither the will nor the capability to predict the amount of ordinary distribution tax for the year in real time. There is a problem that the plan cannot be established on its own.

Direction of Reorganization of Standards for Calculation of Standard Financial Demand for Ordinary Delivery Tax, (2015.12)

It is an object of the present invention to classify and apply statistical information used for ordinary allocation tax allocation into exogenous variables that cannot be controlled by local governments and endogenous variables that can be controlled by local governments. It is to provide an endogenous variable management system and operation method that enhances the rationality of reflecting the adjusted income of local governments to recognize the need for equal reflection and to make a rational decision as to whether to reflect it evenly or to how many years if it is reflected. .

The endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention for achieving the above object is a local government ordinary delivery tax DB that stores ordinary delivery tax information for each local government, Statistical DB that stores statistical information for the calculation of ordinary allocation tax for the year and two or more years before a certain year from that year into endogenous variables that can be controlled by local governments and exogenous variables that cannot be controlled by local governments; storage; a communication unit connected to a wired/wireless data communication network to perform data communication with local government management units connected to the wired/wireless data communication network; and by collecting endogenous variable item information for each endogenous variable item input from the local government management unit for each local government through the communication unit to the person in charge of each endogenous variable item, generating statistical information for each local government and storing it in the statistics DB, and storing the endogenous variable item information in the statistics DB and a control unit that calculates and allocates ordinary delivery tax to the relevant local government and stores it in the ordinary delivery tax DB by applying It is characterized in that the error settlement amount is divided and applied to the corrected income through the division setting information indicating whether or not to do so.

In addition, the control unit calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the year (year t) for each type of basic income for each local government when applying the ordinary delivery tax for the year, Inspect the post-response division setting information for each local government to check whether the post-response division is set, and if the reactive division is set, the post-correction unit that divides the error settlement by the number of years set within 3 years and applies it to the corrected income It is characterized in that it further comprises.

In addition, the post-correction unit applies linear and non-linear models by looking at the error settlement distribution distribution diagram for several years of any local government, selects an optimal model based on the error minimization criterion, and t+1 year and It is characterized by calculating the estimated value of the error settlement for the t+2 year.

In addition, the control unit may include: a group setting unit for setting the endogenous variable items for each local government; an information processing unit that collects statistical information for calculating ordinary distribution tax from the local government management unit, stores it in the statistics DB, and extracts endogenous variable item information corresponding to the set endogenous variable item for each local government from the collected statistical information; an ordinary delivery tax calculation unit that calculates the ordinary delivery tax based on the statistical information, but calculates the ordinary delivery tax by reflecting the item information of the endogenous variable controlled for each local government; and an information providing unit that provides the calculated ordinary distribution tax to the local government management unit.

In addition, the basic income type, it is characterized in that local tax, non-current tax income, adjustment grant, collection grant, real estate grant tax.

In the method of operating an endogenous variable management system reflecting the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention for achieving the above object, the group setting process in which the control unit sets the endogenous variable items for each local government through the group setting unit ; The control unit collects statistical information for calculating ordinary distribution tax from local governments through the information processing unit, stores it in a statistics DB, and extracts endogenous variable item information corresponding to the set endogenous variable item for each local government from the collected statistical information information processing process; an ordinary delivery tax calculation process in which the control unit calculates the ordinary delivery tax based on the statistical information through the ordinary delivery tax calculator, and calculates the ordinary delivery tax by reflecting the item information of the endogenous variable controlled for each local government; and an information providing process in which the control unit provides the calculated ordinary distribution tax to the local government management unit through the information providing unit, wherein the group setting process includes the control unit setting each local government through the divisional reflection setting unit of the group setting unit. and a division reflection setting step of receiving division setting information indicating how many years to divide and reflect the error settlement for each type of basic income and storing it in a statistical DB.

In addition, the control unit calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the current year (year t) by type of basic income for each local government when the normal delivery tax is applied for the year through the post-correction unit Calculation, checking the post-response division setting information for each local government to check whether the post-response division setting is set, and if the reactive division setting is set, divide the error settlement by the set number of years within 3 years and apply it to the corrected income It is characterized in that it further comprises a post-correction process.

In addition, in the post-correction process, when the control unit applies the ordinary delivery tax for the year through the post-correction unit, the estimated revenue and confirmed revenue of the year before (year t-2) based on the current year (year t) by type of basic income for each local government Calculates the difference in error settlement between the two, inspects the post-response split setting information for each local government to check whether the post-response split is set, and if the post-response split is set, the error settlement is calculated by the number of set years within 3 years a post-application step of dividing and applying the adjusted income; and the control unit applies linear and non-linear models by looking at the error settlement distribution distribution diagram for several years of arbitrary local governments through the post-correction unit, but selects an optimal model based on error minimization standards (eg, MAPE, MSE, etc.), and a step of providing an estimate of the future error settlement for calculating the estimate of the error settlement for years t+1 and t+2 by the optimal model.

In addition, the basic income type, it is characterized in that local tax, non-current tax income, adjustment grant, collection grant, real estate grant tax.

The present invention reflects the difference between the estimated value and the amount collected two years before the year (year t) and the amount collected two years before the year (year t) in the corrected income among the standard financial income, but divides it into units of a certain number of years so that it can be reflected By doing so, it has the effect of reducing the disadvantages that local governments receive at one time in the corresponding year, and since it can be applied to the next year in installments, it is possible to provide an error correction function.

In addition, the present invention calculates the estimated values for years t+1 and t+2 with a computerized system based on the collection amount of local government j for each corrected income item to become data for determining division and reflection, and the estimation technique is for local governments It also has the advantage of being able to apply linear and non-linear models by looking at the error settlement distribution distribution diagram for several years and select the optimal model based on each error minimization criterion (eg, MAPE, MSE, etc.).

1 is a diagram showing the configuration of a communication system to which an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of a local government according to the present invention is applied.
2 is a diagram showing the configuration of an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.
3 is a flowchart illustrating a method of operating an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.
4 is a flowchart illustrating a target management method among the endogenous variable management system operating methods reflecting the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.
5 is a flowchart illustrating a post-response method among the endogenous variable management system operating methods that reflect the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.
6 is a flowchart illustrating a method of estimating ordinary delivery tax among endogenous variable management systems and operating methods that reflect the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.
7 is a graph showing the annual trend of the local subsidy reduction rate according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, with reference to the accompanying drawings, the configuration and operation of the endogenous variable management system reflecting the settlement of the corrected income of the local government according to the present invention will be described in detail, and the operation method in the system will be described.

1 is a view showing the configuration of a communication system to which an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention is applied, and FIG. 7 is a yearly trend of local subsidy reduction rate according to an embodiment of the present invention. is a graph showing

1 and 7, the endogenous variable management system 10 reflecting the settlement of the corrected income of the local government according to the present invention is a plurality of local governments 20 through the wired/wireless data communication network 1, the management unit 20 ) to perform mutual data communication.

The wired/wireless data communication network 1 is any one of an Internet network including a local area network (LAN), a mobile communication network such as 3G, 4G, 5G, a dedicated network, a power line network, a WiBro network, etc. It may be a data communication network to which one or more are coupled.

The local government management unit 20 is a system managed by the local government and includes a plurality of the same type of local government management unit 30 configured for each municipality of the same type (province, city, county).

The same kind of local government management unit 30 includes a same kind of local government server 31 and a terminal 32 in charge of a plurality of ordinary subsidy tax endogenous variable items and a person in charge of each exogenous variable item. The same kind of local government server 31 manages the terminal in charge of the person in charge 32 by dividing it into a terminal in charge of an exogenous variable and a terminal in charge of an endogenous variable.

The person in charge terminal 32 may be a personal computer, a desktop computer, a computer terminal such as a notebook computer, or a mobile terminal such as a smart phone or a smart pad.

The endogenous variable management system 10 may be installed in the local government management unit 20 of any one of the local governments and managed by the corresponding local government, and a plurality of local government management units 20 or the corresponding local governments Revenue and expenditure related information including information on revenue and expenditure and statistical information related to revenue and expenditure is collected from the management units 30 of the same type of local government in the management unit 20 .

The endogenous variable management system 10 defines exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item in advance, and exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information from the normal grant tax-related information received by the defined exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information It may be configured to collect information separately or to receive information related to ordinary allocation tax in which exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information are separated from the local government management unit 20 .

The exogenous variable is information that cannot be controlled by local governments, and may be the number of population, area of administrative district, total fertility rate, and the like.

And the endogenous variable is information that can be controlled by local governments, and it may be a local tax collection rate, reduction of event festival expenses, and the like. There are about 20 items of the endogenous variable, and 50 or more types of each item may be defined, but the specific number will be different for each local government.

The endogenous variable management system 10 collects endogenous variable item information for each endogenous variable item input from the local government management unit for each local government to the person in charge of each endogenous variable item, and generates statistical information for each local government, and local government ordinary subsidy tax DB , calculates and allocates the ordinary distribution tax by applying the endogenous variable, and provides the allocated ordinary distribution tax information to the local government management unit 20 .

The detailed configuration and operation of the endogenous variable management system 10 will be described with reference to FIG. 2 below.

2 is a diagram showing the configuration of an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments according to the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 2 , the endogenous variable management system 10 includes a control unit 100 , a storage unit 200 , and a communication unit 300 .

The storage unit 200 includes a program area for storing a control program for controlling the endogenous variable management system 10 according to the present invention, a temporary area for temporarily storing data generated during execution of the control program, and data required for the control program. and a data area for semi-permanently storing data generated during execution of the control program. In the data area, according to the present invention, the target DB 210 for the local government, the DB for the local government ordinary allocation tax 210, and the statistics DB 230 are configured.

The local government target DB 210 stores post-response division setting information for each local government. The reactive division setting information includes whether the reactive division is divided, the number of divisions, and the like. The divided years may be 2 years, 3 years, or the like.

Also, the local government target DB 210 may further store target information for each endogenous variable item of the local government.

The local government ordinary distribution tax DB 220 stores revenue and expenditure-related information, ordinary distribution tax information, and the like for each local government. The normal delivery tax information stores the standard financial demand amount for each local government, the standard financial income amount, the fiscal deficit amount, and the amount of error settlement for each type of basic income.

The statistical DB 230 stores revenue and expenditure related information including statistical information for calculation of general distribution tax and information on revenue and expenditure for the current year and at least two years prior to a predetermined year for each local government. The revenue and expenditure-related information includes statistical information and revenue and expenditure information divided into an endogenous variable that can be controlled by a local government and an exogenous variable that cannot be controlled.

The communication unit 300 connects to the wired/wireless data communication network 1 to perform data communication with the local government management units 30 of the same type of local government management units 20 connected to the wired/wireless data communication network 1 .

The control unit 100 includes a group setting unit 110 , an information processing unit 120 , an ordinary allocation tax calculation unit 130 , a target management unit 140 , a post-correction unit 150 , a comprehensive simulation unit 160 , and an information providing unit ( 170).

The group setting unit 110 includes an endogenous variable item setting unit 111 , a normal allocation tax target setting unit 112 , and a division reflection setting unit 113 .

The endogenous variable item setting unit 111 sets the endogenous variable item for each local government and stores it in the statistical DB 230 .

The normal allocation tax target setting unit 112 receives target information for each endogenous variable item of each local government and stores it in the local government target DB 210 .

The division reflection setting unit 113 receives division setting information indicating how many years to divide and reflect the error settlement for each type of basic income of each local government, and stores it in the statistics DB 230 .

The information processing unit 120 includes an information collection unit 121 , an endogenous variable extraction unit 122 , and an information extraction unit for each same type of organization 123 , and revenue and expenditure including statistical information for calculating ordinary distribution tax from local governments Related information is collected and stored in the statistics DB 230, and endogenous variable item information corresponding to the set endogenous variable item for each local government and the same type of government is extracted from the collected statistical information.

More specifically, the information collection unit 121 collects and outputs information related to ordinary delivery tax including statistical information for calculating ordinary delivery tax from local governments.

The information collection unit 121 may receive from the local government information related to an ordinary allocation tax in which exogenous variables and endogenous variables are not distinguished, or may receive information related to ordinary allocation tax in which exogenous variables and endogenous variables are distinguished.

The endogenous variable extraction unit 122 classifies and outputs exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information from ordinary allocation tax-related information, or extracts exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information from ordinary allocation tax-related information to provide a statistical DB (230) save to

The information extraction unit 123 for each homogeneous entity extracts the extracted exogenous variable item information and endogenous variable item information for each homogeneous local government, extracts item information for each endogenous variable of each homogeneous local government, and stores it in the statistical DB 230 . .

The ordinary allocation tax calculation unit 130 includes a standard financial demand calculation unit 131, a standard financial income calculation unit 132 and a financial shortfall calculation unit 133, and collects statistical information of revenue and expenditure related information of the statistical DB 230. With reference to this, the ordinary distribution tax is calculated for each local government.

The standard financial demand calculation unit 131 calculates and outputs the standard financial demand by summing the basic demand, the correction demand, and the self-effort demand of the statistical DB 230 .

The standard financial income calculation unit 132 calculates and outputs the standard financial income by adding up the basic income, the corrected income, and the self-effort income.

The financial shortfall calculation unit 133 calculates the financial shortfall by subtracting the standard financial income from the reference financial demand.

A number of endogenous variables are included in the corrected demand, self-effort demand, corrected income, and self-effort income items.

In order to receive a large amount of ordinary subsidy tax, it would be more advantageous to increase the standard fiscal demand and decrease the standard fiscal income. Therefore, it is advantageous to increase the demand for endogenous variable items of adjusted demand and self-effort demand and decrease the endogenous variable item import amount for adjusted income and self-effort income.

Specifically, each of the standard financial demand calculation unit 131 and the reference financial income calculation unit 132 calculates the standard financial demand amount and the standard financial income by applying the ordinary delivery tax formula for each included endogenous variable item and adding them. When explaining the calculation example of the ordinary delivery tax formula for each item above, the standard financial income according to the increase or decrease in the amount of local tax arrears is calculated as ((t-2) arrears - (t-3) arrears) * 1.8. If the amount of delinquency in year (t-2) decreases compared to the previous year, the standard financial income becomes negative and becomes an incentive, and when the amount of arrears increases, the standard financial income becomes positive and becomes a penalty.

The target management unit 140 includes endogenous variable item information of each local government collected through the information processing unit 120 and target information for each endogenous variable item of the corresponding local government set in the local government target DB 210 . , calculates the target achievement rate for each period and provides it to the local government management unit 20 of the relevant local government through the information providing unit. Through this, the person in charge of the endogenous variable item will be assigned his/her work target, and will be able to provide work productivity by providing whether the work goal has been achieved and directly related to the increase or decrease of the ordinary subsidy tax. The target achievement rate may be calculated in any one or more cycles of a monthly unit, a quarter unit, a semi-annual unit, a year unit, and the like.

The post-correction unit 150 calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the year (year t) for each type of basic income by local government when applying the ordinary delivery tax for that year, and , Inspect the post-response division setting information for each local government to check whether the post-response division is set, and if the reactive division is set, divide the error settlement by the set number of years within 3 years and apply it to the corrected income of the ordinary distribution tax do. The basic income type may include local tax, non-current tax income, adjustment grant, collection grant, real estate grant tax, and the like.

The post-correction unit 150 applies linear and non-linear models by looking at the error settlement distribution distribution diagram for several years of any local government, but selects an optimal model based on error minimization criteria (eg, MAPE, MSE, etc.), It may be possible to calculate the estimated value of the error settlement for years t+1 and t+2 by the optimal model and provide it to the local government management unit 20 through the information providing unit 170 . The nonlinear model may be a quadratic function, a log function, an exponential function, an artificial intelligence model method, or the like. If the selected estimate for years t+1, t+2 is small, it can be reflected in installments. However, if the estimates are large, if the estimates are large, the adjusted income for years t+1, t+2 may increase further, resulting in a disadvantage. Confirmed local governments will be able to give up the split reflection. For example, if the error settlement in Eumseong group is 12,414 million won in year t-2, if 6,207 million won is reflected in two years in years t and t+1, the estimated error settlement value in year t+1 is expected to be 7,165 million won. It is predicted that it will be unfavorable to the allocation of the grant tax in year t+1 (6,207 + 7,165 = 13,372 million won), so it will be possible to make a decision to settle the tax all at once in year t instead of reflecting in installments.

The comprehensive simulation unit 160 generates trend information for each endogenous variable item by granting incentives and penalties to each local government according to the rate of change in year t-2 compared to year t-3 based on the current year (year t) for each endogenous variable item. and comprehensively simulates the trend information for each endogenous variable item and provides it to the local government management unit 20 through the information providing unit 170 .

), 동종자치단체 최소 징수율(

), 동종자치단체 평균 징수율(

), 자치단체 j의 징수율(

, t : t-2, t-3, … t-n), 자치단체 j의 t+1년도 지방세 징수율 추계치(

)를 계산하고, 도 7과 같은 연도별 추세 그래프를 생성하여 해당 지방자치단체 관리부(20) 또는 동종자치단체 관리부(30)로 제공한다. 상기 동종단체 최고 징수율, 동종단체 최소 징수율, 동종단체 평균 징수율, 특정자치단체 징수율 자체는 이 기술분야에서 잘 알려진 기술이므로 그 상세한 설명을 생략한다.In the case of local tax collection rate, the comprehensive simulation unit 160 determines the highest collection rate (

), the minimum collection rate (

), average collection rate (

), the collection rate of local government j (

, t : t-2, t-3, … tn), the estimated local tax collection rate for year t+1 of local government j (

) is calculated, and a trend graph is generated for each year as shown in FIG. The highest collection rate of the same type of organization, the minimum collection rate of the same type of organization, the average collection rate of the same type of organization, and the collection rate of a specific local government itself are well known in the art, and thus detailed description thereof will be omitted.

The comprehensive simulation unit 160 may be applied to each item of self-effort demand and income in the same way to generate and provide year-by-year trend graphs for each endogenous variable. Through this process, the local government will be able to maximize the ordinary subsidy tax by finding the optimal value of each endogenous variable from the point of view of the local government, presenting it as a goal, and implementing performance management.

The information providing unit 170 provides various types of information generated according to the present invention to the same type of local government management unit 30 of the local government management unit 20 .

3 is a flowchart illustrating a method for allocating ordinary allocation tax using endogenous variables according to the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 3 , the control unit 100 sets the normal distribution tax for each local government through the endogenous variable item setting unit 111 and the division reflection setting unit 113 of the group setting unit 110 ( S111 ). ). The setting of the ordinary subsidy tax sets endogenous variable items that may be different for each local government, and may include whether to set the divisional reflection setting and the divisional reflection number of years.

When the setting of the general distribution tax for each local government is completed, the control unit 100 performs target setting for each item (S113). That is, the control unit 100 sets a target value for each endogenous variable item (person in charge) through the normal allocation tax target setting unit 112 of the group setting unit 110 .

When the target value for each item is set, the control unit 100 collects information related to ordinary distribution tax from the management units 30 of the same type of local government, and extracts endogenous variable item information from the collected ordinary distribution tax information (S115).

The control unit 100 determines whether an ordinary allocation tax target management event occurs (S117), a post-response event occurs (S119), or an ordinary allocation tax estimation event occurs when ordinary allocation tax information including endogenous variable item information for each local government is obtained (S121) and it is monitored whether an event for calculating the normal delivery tax occurs (S123). The reactive event may be configured to occur after the occurrence of the normal allocation tax calculation event.

The normal delivery tax target management event may be generated when a normal delivery tax target management request signal is generated from an arbitrary terminal 32 of the same type of local government management unit 20, or may be configured to be generated at a certain period.

The reactive event may be generated after the occurrence of the normal delivery tax calculation event as described above, may be generated by the terminal in charge 32, or may be configured to occur at a certain period during a specific period.

The normal allocation tax estimation event may also be generated by the person in charge terminal 32, or may be configured to be automatically generated at a certain period.

Ordinary delivery tax calculation event may also be generated by the person in charge terminal 32, or may be configured to be automatically generated at a certain period during a certain period.

When the normal delivery tax target management event occurs, the control unit 100 performs the target management process (S125). The target management process will be described with reference to FIG. 4 below.

When a reactive event occurs, the control unit 100 provides the reactive information to the corresponding local government management unit 30 of the corresponding local government management unit 20 (S127). The process of providing the post-response information will be described with reference to FIG. 5 below.

When an ordinary distribution tax estimation event occurs, the control unit 100 estimates the ordinary distribution tax through the comprehensive simulation unit 160 and provides the estimated ordinary distribution tax information to the corresponding local government management unit 30 of the relevant local government management unit 20 do (S129). The process of estimating and providing the normal delivery tax will be described with reference to FIG. 6 below.

When an ordinary delivery tax calculation event occurs, the control unit 100 calculates an ordinary delivery tax for each local government through the ordinary delivery tax calculation unit 130 (S131).

4 is a flowchart illustrating a target management method among the ordinary allocation tax allocation methods using endogenous variables according to the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 4 , when an ordinary delivery tax target management event occurs, the control unit 100 requests identification information of the person in charge of the corresponding endogenous variable of the corresponding local government (S211). When the normal delivery tax target management event is generated by an arbitrary person in charge, it is provided to the person in charge terminal 32 of the person in charge. Load and get

After the request for input of the person in charge identification information, the control unit 100 monitors whether the person in charge identification information is input (S213).

When the person in charge identification information is obtained, the control unit 100 loads the endogenous variable item target setting information and the current work information, which is the endogenous variable item information managed by the person in charge (S215), and then the item according to the work information to date The achievement rate to the target value for each information is calculated (S219). It will be preferable that the terminal 32 in charge of the person in charge of the higher level local government is configured to provide information on the achievement rate up to the target value of all persons in charge of the lower level local government. In addition, at this time, the higher-ranking person in charge may be further provided with guide information on the increase of ordinary delivery tax that can determine whether the normal delivery tax can be increased by adjusting the endogenous variable item of a person in charge.

When the target achievement rate is calculated, the control unit 100 provides the target achievement rate information to the terminal 32 of the person in charge and the person in charge of the higher level (S219).

5 is a flowchart illustrating a post-response method among the ordinary allocation tax allocation methods using endogenous variables according to the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 5 , the control unit 100 calculates an error settlement by the estimated value for each type of basic income and the fixed income based on statistical information for year t-2 ( S311 ).

When the error settlement amount is calculated, the control unit 100 checks whether the reactive division reflection setting information of the local government target DB 210 of the storage unit 200 is set to check whether the reactive division reflection setting information is set (S313).

If set, the control unit 100 applies the divided reflection number included in the post-corresponding divisional reflection setting information, and calculates the divisional error settlement amount obtained by dividing the error settlement amount by the number of years (S315).

When the division error settlement amount is calculated, the control unit 100 reflects the division error settlement amount in the current year (S317).

At this time, if there is a division error settlement set divided in the previous year (t-1), it is determined whether there is an error by comparing the division error settlement amount of the current year. It may be configured to apply.

6 is a flowchart illustrating a method of estimating an ordinary delivery tax among methods of allocating an ordinary delivery tax using endogenous variables according to the present invention.

6, the control unit 100 compares the local tax collection rate in year t-3 and the local tax collection rate in year t-2 for each endogenous variable item (S411), and determines whether the local tax collection rate has increased for each endogenous variable item (S413) .

If the local tax collection rate increases, the controller 100 allocates an incentive to the corresponding endogenous variable item (S415), and allocates a penalty if the collection rate decreases (S417).

When any one of incentives and penalties is allocated to each endogenous variable item for each local government, the control unit 100 performs a simulation in which a trend is applied for each endogenous variable item (S419). For example, to raise the local tax collection rate, incentives are allocated when the collection rate in year t-2 is higher than that in year t-3, and penalties are allocated when it is low. The problem is that the local tax collection rate (collected amount ÷ imposed amount) cannot continue to increase by more than 1 compared to year t-3. In other words, items that give incentives and penalties according to the rate of change cannot continue to increase and decrease forever, so they will have to take a disadvantage in a specific year. At this time, since there are several endogenous variable items in the present system, the control unit 100 comprehensively simulates the trends of various endogenous variables, such as the items that reflect the corrected income settlement, and then makes an appropriate selection and decision to maximize the normal delivery tax. So that the simulation information is provided to the local government management unit 20 .

The endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of the corrected income of each local government according to the present invention consists of five steps.

1. Scale and items of endogenous variables of local government’s ordinary subsidy tax, and deduction of related results

2. Confirmation of officials in charge of each endogenous variable and redesign of job process through job description

- Each endogenous variable statistics generation subject, cycle, and statistical determination procedure, etc.

3. Establishment of endogenous variable management system

- Expected size of endogenous variable ordinary grant tax amount

- Sensitivity analysis and comprehensive simulation of each endogenous variable for maximization of ordinary subsidy tax

4. Derivation of estimates of each endogenous variable by a linear non-linear model

- Derivation of estimates for t+1, t+2 of the estimated error settlement among adjusted income

- Analysis of descriptive statistics for each endogenous variable and deduction of estimated value (t-1), average, highest, lowest, and relevant local government statistics, and estimated value (t-1) of each statistic

5. Suggestion and operation management of target values for each endogenous variable for maximization of ordinary subsidy tax

- Monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and yearly execution status evaluation and feedback

On the other hand, it is common knowledge in the art that the present invention is not limited to the typical preferred embodiments described above, but can be improved, changed, replaced, or added in various ways without departing from the spirit of the present invention. Those who have will be able to understand it easily. If implementation by such improvement, change, substitution, or addition falls within the scope of the appended claims below, the technical idea should also be regarded as belonging to the present invention.

10: Endogenous variable management system 20: Local government management department
30: homogeneous municipality management unit 31: homogeneous municipality server
32: person in charge terminal 100: control unit
110: group setting unit 111: endogenous variable yield setting unit
112: ordinary subsidy tax target setting unit 113: divisional reflection setting unit
120: information processing unit 121: information collection unit
122: endogenous variable extraction unit 123: information extraction unit for each homogeneous group
130: Ordinary allocation tax calculation unit 131: Standard financial demand calculation unit
132: standard financial income calculation unit 133: financial shortfall calculation unit
140: target management unit 150: post correction unit
160: general simulation unit 170: information providing unit

Claims (9)

The local government’s ordinary delivery tax DB, which stores information on ordinary delivery tax for each local government, and statistical information for the calculation of ordinary delivery tax for the current year for each local government and two or more years before a certain year from the current year will be controlled by the local government. a storage unit including a statistical DB for classifying and storing endogenous variables and exogenous variables that cannot be controlled;
a communication unit connected to a wired/wireless data communication network to perform data communication with local government management units connected to the wired/wireless data communication network; and
The communication unit collects endogenous variable item information for each endogenous variable item input from the local government management unit for each local government through the communication unit, generates statistical information for each local government, and stores the endogenous variable in the statistics DB. It is made including a control unit that calculates the ordinary distribution tax by applying it, allocates it to the relevant local government, and stores it in the ordinary distribution tax DB,
The control unit divides the error settlement amount through division setting information indicating how many years to divide and reflect the error settlement amount for each basic income type of the local government and apply it to the corrected income An endogenous variable management system that reflects minutes.
The method of claim 1,
The control unit calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the current year (year t) for each type of basic income for each local government when applying the ordinary delivery tax for that year, and local self-government A post-correction unit that inspects the post-response division setting information for each group to check whether the post-response division is set, and if the post-response division is set, divides the error settlement by the set years within 3 years and applies it to the corrected income. An endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments, characterized in that
3. The method of claim 2,
The post-correction unit,
Linear and non-linear models are applied by looking at the distribution of error settlement distribution for several years of arbitrary local governments, but the optimal model is selected based on the error minimization standard MAPE or MSE, and t+1 year and t+2 according to the selected optimal model An endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of the corrected income of a local government, characterized in that it calculates the estimated value of the annual error settlement.
3. The method of claim 2,
The control unit is
a group setting unit for setting the endogenous variable items for each local government;
an information processing unit that collects statistical information for calculating ordinary distribution tax from the local government management unit, stores it in the statistical DB, and extracts endogenous variable item information corresponding to the set endogenous variable item for each local government from the collected statistical information;
an ordinary delivery tax calculation unit that calculates the ordinary delivery tax based on the statistical information, but calculates the ordinary delivery tax by reflecting the item information of the endogenous variable controlled for each local government; and
An endogenous variable management system reflecting the settlement of corrected income of a local government, characterized in that it includes an information providing unit that provides the calculated ordinary distribution tax to the corresponding local government management unit.
The method of claim 1,
The basic income type is:
An endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments, characterized in that they are local tax, non-current tax income, adjustment grant, collection grant, and real estate grant tax.
a group setting process in which the control unit sets endogenous variable items for each local government through the group setting unit;
The control unit collects statistical information for calculating ordinary distribution tax from local governments through the information processing unit, stores it in a statistics DB, and extracts endogenous variable item information corresponding to the set endogenous variable item for each local government from the collected statistical information information processing process;
an ordinary delivery tax calculation process in which the control unit calculates the ordinary delivery tax based on the statistical information through the ordinary delivery tax calculator, and calculates the ordinary delivery tax by reflecting the item information of the endogenous variable controlled by each local government; and
Including an information providing process in which the control unit provides the calculated ordinary distribution tax to the local government management unit through the information providing unit,
The group setting process is
The control unit receives the division setting information indicating how many years to divide and reflect the error settlement for each basic income type of each local government through the division reflection setting unit of the group setting unit and storing it in the statistical DB, including a division reflection setting step A method of operating an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement amount of the adjusted income of the local government.
7. The method of claim 6,
The control unit calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the current year (year t) for each type of basic income for each local government when the ordinary delivery tax is applied for the year through the post-correction unit, and , Examine the post-response division setting information by local government to check whether the post-response division is set, and if the reactive division is set, the post-correction that divides the error settlement by the set years within 3 years and applies it to the corrected income An endogenous variable management system operating method that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments, characterized in that it further comprises a process.
8. The method of claim 7,
The post-correction process is
The control unit calculates the difference between the estimated revenue and the finalized revenue before a certain year (year t-2) based on the current year (year t) for each type of basic income for each local government when the ordinary delivery tax is applied for the year through the post-correction unit, and , Inspect the post-response division setting information for each local government to check whether the post-response division is set, and if the post-response division is set, divide the error settlement by the number of years set within 3 years and apply it to the corrected income. application step; and
The control unit applies linear and non-linear models by looking at the distribution of error settlement for several years of any local government through the post-correction unit, but selects an optimal model based on MAPE or MSE, which is the error minimization standard, and selects t by the selected optimal model A method of operating an endogenous variable management system reflecting the settlement of corrected income of a local government, characterized in that it includes the step of providing an estimate of the future error settlement for calculating the error settlement estimate for year +1 and year t+2.
7. The method of claim 6,
The basic income type is:
A method of operating an endogenous variable management system that reflects the settlement of corrected income of local governments, characterized in that they are local tax, non-current tax income, adjustment grant, collection grant, and real estate grant tax.

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