KR101749427B1 - Method for forecasting wind speed based on artificial neural networks having different features - Google Patents
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- KR101749427B1 KR101749427B1 KR1020150166316A KR20150166316A KR101749427B1 KR 101749427 B1 KR101749427 B1 KR 101749427B1 KR 1020150166316 A KR1020150166316 A KR 1020150166316A KR 20150166316 A KR20150166316 A KR 20150166316A KR 101749427 B1 KR101749427 B1 KR 101749427B1
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Abstract
A method for predicting wind speed based on an artificial neural network having various characteristics and an apparatus using the method are disclosed. A method according to one aspect of the present invention includes receiving wind speed data for a target time point for predicting the wind speed and a predetermined time period before the target time point and using a plurality of artificial neural networks (ANN) Generating initial prediction data on the wind speed of the target point and generating final prediction data using at least a part of the initial prediction data.
Description
The following embodiments relate to a wind speed prediction technique, and more particularly to an artificial neural network-based wind speed prediction technique having various characteristics.
Renewable energy is attracting attention in recent power systems that pursue energy efficiency and environment. Renewable energy can reduce dependence on fossil fuels or power plants powered by nuclear fuels. Many regions or countries may have potential due to sources of renewable energy such as wind, sunlight, and waves.
However, these energies are difficult to integrate into the main grid due to their intermittent nature. For example, if the wind is heavy, renewable energy can be overproduced and wasted. In addition, it may be impossible to produce renewable energy in a situation where power demand is high. This problem is due to the fact that the power can not be economically stored for later use. For efficient operation, the main grid must consider how much energy it will produce at the plant, taking into account the power available from renewable energy.
For this purpose, it is required to accurately predict the availability of renewable energy. For example, in the case of wind energy, it is required to predict the wind speed. Prediction of wind speed is an old task for many researchers and engineers in various countries. However, there is no universal way to predict wind speeds, and each region predicts wind speed according to their model.
Furthermore, such predictions of wind speed can be combined with technologies such as ANNs (Artificial Neural Networks), fuzzy logic, and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integral Moving Averate). ANNs can be used to predict the nonlinear motion of the target object. Thus, the dependency of input variables and output variables can be found in the learning stage through ANNs, and learning data for learning can be obtained through observation and measurement.
The following embodiments are intended to provide a technique capable of accurately predicting wind speed based on various artificial neural networks.
The method of predicting wind speed according to one side includes receiving a wind speed data for a target time point for predicting the wind speed and a predetermined time period before the target time point; Generating initial prediction data on the wind speed of the target point of time using a plurality of artificial neural networks (ANN) having different characteristics; And generating final prediction data using at least a part of the initial prediction data.
The plurality of ANNs are preliminarily learned with learning data of a period classified by different criteria, and the different criteria may include a season and a month.
The plurality of ANNs may include a plurality of input nodes corresponding to the wind speed data and an output node for outputting the initial predicted data.
The initial predicted data may include initial predicted data on seasonal variation characteristics of wind speed and initial predicted data on monthly variation characteristics of wind speed. ANN1 for generating first initial predictive data, ANN2 for generating second initial predictive data based on seasonal characteristics of the whole period, and ANN3 for generating third initial predictive data based on monthly characteristics of the whole period .
The generating of the initial prediction data may include: selecting subnetworks corresponding to the target time point in the ANN2 and the ANN3; And generating the initial prediction data using the subnetworks.
The ANN2 may include four subnetworks corresponding to spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the ANN3 may include 12 subnetworks corresponding to January to December.
delete
The plurality of ANNs includes ANN1 learned with learning data of the entire period, ANN2 learned with learning data classified by season as a whole, and ANN3 learned with learning data obtained by classifying the whole period as a monthly can do.
An apparatus for predicting the wind speed according to one side includes a plurality of ANNs for receiving wind speed data for a target time point for predicting the wind speed and a predetermined time period before the target time point and generating initial predicted data on the wind speed of the target time point (Artificial Neural Network); And a selection processing unit for generating final prediction data using at least a part of the initial prediction data, wherein each of the plurality of ANNs has different characteristics.
The plurality of ANNs may be previously learned with learning data of a period classified by different criteria, and the different criteria may include a season and a month.
The plurality of ANNs may include a plurality of input nodes corresponding to the wind speed data and an output node for outputting the initial predicted data.
The initial predicted data may include initial predicted data on seasonal variation characteristics of wind speed and initial predicted data on monthly variation characteristics of wind speed.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises ANN1 for generating first initial predictive data based on characteristics of the entire period, ANN2 for generating second initial predictive data based on seasonal characteristics of the entire period, Lt; RTI ID = 0.0 > ANN3 < / RTI >
The method may further comprise a switch for selecting the subnetworks corresponding to the target time point in the ANN2 and the ANN3 and transmitting the wind speed data to the subnetworks, Data can be generated.
The ANN2 may include four subnetworks corresponding to spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the ANN3 may include 12 subnetworks corresponding to January to December.
delete
The plurality of ANNs includes ANN1 learned with learning data of the entire period, ANN2 learned with learning data classified by season as a whole, and ANN3 learned with learning data obtained by classifying the whole period as a monthly can do.
According to the embodiments described below, it is possible to accurately predict the wind speed using artificial neural networks of various standards.
Also, according to the embodiments described below, the utilization of the regenerated energy can be improved by using the accurately predicted wind speed.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an apparatus for predicting wind speed according to an embodiment; FIG.
2 is a block diagram showing a detailed structure of an ANN according to an embodiment;
3 is a block diagram illustrating a data processing procedure of an ANN according to an exemplary embodiment;
4 is a block diagram for explaining a learning process of an ANN according to an embodiment;
5 is a block diagram illustrating a process of generating learning data according to an embodiment;
6 is an operational flowchart illustrating a wind speed prediction method according to an embodiment.
Hereinafter, embodiments will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Like reference symbols in the drawings denote like elements.
1 is a block diagram showing a wind speed predicting apparatus according to an embodiment. Referring to FIG. 1, an apparatus for predicting wind speed according to an embodiment may include an ANN (Artificial Neural Network) 100 and a
The wind speed prediction device can receive the wind speed data from the weather data server. The weather data server can provide wind speed records along with meteorological data such as sunlight and precipitation over time. The wind speed predicting device can extract necessary data from the data received from the weather data server. Thereafter, the extracted data may be converted into a series of Structured Query Language (SQL) to be inserted into a database table. The table can be defined as a MySQL database running on a Linux machine. Data analysis modules can find the information they need through the MySQL communications section of their platform. Furthermore, Open DataBase Connectivity (ODBC) allows a generic application to find a specific database field and process it according to its workspace analysis strategy. Embodiments may include a Fast ANN (FANN) library that provides sufficient ANN APIs for C language applications.
The ANN 100 receives the target time and wind speed data. The target time point means a specific time point to which the wind speed is predicted. For example, if you want to know the wind speed of tomorrow, the target time can be tomorrow. As will be described in greater detail below, the ANN 100 may include subnetworks having different characteristics, generated on various criteria, and the target time point may be used to select a particular network among the subnetworks. The selected specific network can generate initial predicted data based on wind speed data.
The wind speed data may include wind speed data for a predetermined time interval before the target point. For example, the wind speed data may include wind speed data for five days before the target point. The time interval of the wind speed data included in the wind speed data may correspond to the input node of the
The
The selection processing unit (200) generates final prediction data based on the initial prediction data. The
2 is a block diagram showing a detailed structure of an ANN according to an embodiment. Referring to FIG. 2, an
3 is a block diagram for explaining a data processing procedure of the ANN according to an embodiment. Referring to FIG. 3, the
The subnetworks ANN2 1 through ANN2 4 of ANN2 120 may correspond to seasons, respectively. For example, the subnetwork ANN2 1 corresponds to the spring, the subnetwork ANN2 2 corresponds to the summer, the subnetwork ANN2 3 corresponds to the fall, and the subnetwork ANN2 4 corresponds to the winter . Each season can be defined by a certain standard. For example, in Korea, March to May may be defined as spring, June to August as summer, September to November as autumn, and December to February as winter. As will be described later in detail, the subnetworks ANN2 1 to ANN2 4 of ANN2 120 can learn learning data corresponding to each season in advance.
The subnetworks ANN3 1 through ANN3 12 of ANN3 130 may correspond to months, respectively. For example, the subnetwork ANN3 1 corresponds to January, the subnetwork ANN3 2 corresponds to February, the subnetwork ANN3 3 corresponds to March, and the subnetwork ANN3 12 corresponds to December, . As will be described in detail later, the subnetworks ANN3 1 to ANN3 12 of ANN3 130 may learn learning data corresponding to each month in advance.
As described above, the
Also, the
FIG. 4 is a block diagram for explaining a learning process of the ANN according to an embodiment. The
As described above, the
The
The
5 is a block diagram illustrating a process of generating learning data according to an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 5, the learning data includes
The first learning data DB1 may include total wind speed data for at least one year before the target time point for predicting the wind speed. For example, when the target time is 2015, the first learning data DB1 may be data on the wind speed of the whole of 2014, or data on the wind speed of the whole two years from January 1, 2013 to December 31, have.
The second learning data DB2 and the third learning data DB3 can be generated by classifying the first learning data DB1 on a constant basis. The second learning data DB2 includes the sub learning data DB2 1 to DB2 4 . The second learning data (DB2) can be generated by classifying the first learning data (DB1) by season. For example, wind speed data from January 1 to February 28 corresponding to spring in the first learning data DB 1 can be classified into sub learning data DB2 1 . The third learning data DB3 includes sub learning data DB3 1 to DB3 12 . The third learning data DB3 can be generated by classifying the first learning data DB1 monthly. For example, wind speed data from January 1 to January 31 corresponding to January in the first learning data DB1 can be classified into sub learning data DB3 1 .
The above-described
The embodiments described above may be implemented in hardware components, software components, and / or a combination of hardware components and software components. For example, the devices, methods, and components described in the embodiments may be implemented within a computer system, such as, for example, a processor, a controller, an arithmetic logic unit (ALU), a digital signal processor, such as an array, a programmable logic unit (PLU), a microprocessor, or any other device capable of executing and responding to instructions. The processing device may execute an operating system (OS) and one or more software applications running on the operating system. The processing device may also access, store, manipulate, process, and generate data in response to execution of the software. For ease of understanding, the processing apparatus may be described as being used singly, but those skilled in the art will recognize that the processing apparatus may have a plurality of processing elements and / As shown in FIG. For example, the processing unit may comprise a plurality of processors or one processor and one controller. Other processing configurations are also possible, such as a parallel processor.
The software may include a computer program, code, instructions, or a combination of one or more of the foregoing, and may be configured to configure the processing device to operate as desired or to process it collectively or collectively Device can be commanded. The software and / or data may be in the form of any type of machine, component, physical device, virtual equipment, computer storage media, or device , Or may be permanently or temporarily embodied in a transmitted signal wave. The software may be distributed over a networked computer system and stored or executed in a distributed manner. The software and data may be stored on one or more computer readable recording media.
The method according to an embodiment may be implemented in the form of a program command that can be executed through various computer means and recorded in a computer-readable medium. The computer-readable medium may include program instructions, data files, data structures, and the like, alone or in combination. The program instructions to be recorded on the medium may be those specially designed and configured for the embodiments or may be available to those skilled in the art of computer software. Examples of computer-readable media include magnetic media such as hard disks, floppy disks and magnetic tape; optical media such as CD-ROMs and DVDs; magnetic media such as floppy disks; Magneto-optical media, and hardware devices specifically configured to store and execute program instructions such as ROM, RAM, flash memory, and the like. Examples of program instructions include machine language code such as those produced by a compiler, as well as high-level language code that can be executed by a computer using an interpreter or the like. The hardware devices described above may be configured to operate as one or more software modules to perform the operations of the embodiments, and vice versa.
Although the embodiments have been described with reference to the drawings, various technical modifications and variations may be applied to those skilled in the art. For example, it is to be understood that the techniques described may be performed in a different order than the described methods, and / or that components of the described systems, structures, devices, circuits, Lt; / RTI > or equivalents, even if it is replaced or replaced.
Claims (19)
Generating initial prediction data on the wind speed of the target point of time using a plurality of artificial neural networks (ANN) having different characteristics; And
Generating final prediction data using at least a part of the initial prediction data;
And estimating the wind speed.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
Learning is preliminarily learned with learning data of periods classified on different criteria,
The different criteria may include season and month,
Wind speed prediction method.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
A plurality of input nodes corresponding to the wind speed data and an output node for outputting the initial predicted data;
Wind speed prediction method.
Wherein the initial prediction data includes:
Including initial predictive data on seasonal variation characteristics of wind speed and initial predictive data on monthly variation characteristics of wind speed,
Wind speed prediction method.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
ANN1 for generating second initial predictive data based on the seasonal characteristic of the whole period, and ANN2 for generating second initial predictive data based on the monthly characteristic of the whole period, RTI ID = 0.0 > ANN3 < / RTI >
Wind speed prediction method.
Wherein the generating the initial prediction data comprises:
Selecting subnetworks corresponding to the target time point in the ANN2 and the ANN3; And
Generating the initial prediction data using the subnetworks
And estimating the wind speed.
Wherein the ANN2 comprises four subnetworks corresponding to spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the ANN3 comprises twelve subnetworks corresponding to January to December,
Wind speed prediction method.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
An ANN1 that is learned by learning data of the entire period, ANN2 that is learned by learning data that classifies the whole period by season, and ANN3 that is learned by learning data that classifies the whole period by a monthly,
Wind speed prediction method.
A selection processing unit for generating final prediction data using at least a part of the initial prediction data;
Lt; / RTI >
Each of the plurality of ANNs having different characteristics,
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
Learning is preliminarily learned with learning data of periods classified on different criteria,
The different criteria may include season and month,
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
A plurality of input nodes corresponding to the wind speed data and an output node for outputting the initial predicted data;
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the initial prediction data includes:
Including initial predictive data on seasonal variation characteristics of wind speed and initial predictive data on monthly variation characteristics of wind speed,
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
ANN1 for generating second initial predictive data based on the seasonal characteristic of the whole period, and ANN2 for generating second initial predictive data based on the monthly characteristic of the whole period, RTI ID = 0.0 > ANN3 < / RTI >
Wind speed prediction device.
Further comprising a switch for selecting the subnetworks corresponding to the target time point in the ANN2 and the ANN3 and transmitting the wind speed data to the subnetworks,
Wherein the subnetworks generate the initial prediction data based on the wind speed data,
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the ANN2 comprises four subnetworks corresponding to spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the ANN3 comprises twelve subnetworks corresponding to January to December,
Wind speed prediction device.
Wherein the plurality of ANNs comprises:
An ANN1 that is learned by learning data of the entire period, ANN2 that is learned by learning data that classifies the whole period by season, and ANN3 that is learned by learning data that classifies the whole period by a monthly,
Wind speed prediction device.
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KR20210154581A (en) | 2020-06-12 | 2021-12-21 | 부산대학교 산학협력단 | Method for predicting the formulation of structural epoxy adhesives using machine learning |
KR20230083860A (en) | 2021-12-03 | 2023-06-12 | 전기은 | Generator control system and method based on climate prediction through artificial intelligence |
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Cited By (4)
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KR101956715B1 (en) * | 2017-09-01 | 2019-03-11 | 군산대학교산학협력단 | Wind direction prediction method and apparatus for yaw control of wind turbines |
KR101956717B1 (en) * | 2017-09-01 | 2019-03-11 | 군산대학교산학협력단 | Method and apparatus for prediction of wind direction, and method for yaw control of wind turbines using the same |
KR20210154581A (en) | 2020-06-12 | 2021-12-21 | 부산대학교 산학협력단 | Method for predicting the formulation of structural epoxy adhesives using machine learning |
KR20230083860A (en) | 2021-12-03 | 2023-06-12 | 전기은 | Generator control system and method based on climate prediction through artificial intelligence |
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