KR101560081B1 - Apparatus for generation of future typical weather data and method thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to an apparatus and a method for calculating a future standard weather data. The apparatus for calculating future meteorological data according to the present invention includes a meteorological data calculation unit for calculating future meteorological data of a total statistical period for a plurality of meteorological elements through simulation; A CDF calculating unit for calculating a monthly long-term cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period and a monthly cumulative cumulative distribution function of each year; An FS calculating unit for comparing the long term cumulative distribution function and the short term cumulative distribution function to calculate an FS value for each year; A candidate month selecting unit for selecting n candidate months having a small ranking of FS values by year; An average deviation calculation unit for calculating an average of the total statistical period of the future weather data calculated for the specific weather element and an average deviation of the candidate month; And a standard year creating unit for creating a future standard year by selecting a month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as a representative month.
As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to increase the reliability of the calculation of the period load necessary for designing a desert or facility using future standard meteorological data as compared with the past data.

Description

[0001] APPARATUS FOR GENERATION OF FUTURE TYPICAL WEATHER DATA AND METHOD THEREOF [0002]

The present invention relates to an apparatus and a method for calculating future meteorological data, and more particularly, to an apparatus and method for calculating standard meteorological data to help predict the energy consumed by buildings to be designed in the future.

In recent years, environmental pollution caused by indiscreet development and growth in the international society has caused big and small problems in global environment and human society. One of the biggest problems is climate change.

Seasonally, winter tends to be shorter and summer season longer, and ecological damage is also caused by heavy snowfall, drought, localized heavy rain, yellow sand, and changes in Samhanshion temperature. This affects the entire economy, society, industry, and culture.

In the case of architecture affected by the climate, simulations for evaluating the energy consumption of buildings based on past weather data, research on eco-friendly design to save energy, and evaluation of building energy performance have been developed and popularized.

However, buildings and facilities that are used once for at least 50 years to a maximum of 100 years once built are not affected by past climate conditions but are subject to continually changing climate conditions. It is difficult to cope with future weather changes.

The technology to be a background of the present invention is disclosed in Korean Patent Laid-Open Publication No. 2013-0089762 (Aug. 31, 2013).

An object of the present invention is to provide an apparatus and method for calculating future standard weather data to be used as input data in periodic load calculation.

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided an apparatus for calculating future meteorological data, comprising: a meteorological data calculation unit for calculating future meteorological data of a total statistical period for a plurality of meteorological elements through simulation; A CDF calculating unit for calculating a monthly long-term cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period and a monthly cumulative cumulative distribution function of each year; An FS calculating unit for comparing the long term cumulative distribution function and the short term cumulative distribution function to calculate an FS value for each year; A candidate month selecting unit for selecting n candidate months having a small ranking of FS values by year; An average deviation calculation unit for calculating an average of the total statistical period of the future weather data calculated for the specific weather element and an average deviation of the candidate month; And a standard year creating unit for creating a future standard year by selecting a month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as a representative month.

The meteorological element may include a dry bulb temperature, a horizontal front surface irradiation amount, and a relative humidity, and the future weather data may represent daily average data on the meteorological element.

The FS calculating unit may calculate the sum of the dry bulb temperature, the horizontal irradiation amount, and the relative humidity, in ascending order of the FS values for each year, and select three candidate walks having the smallest calculated value can do.

The average deviation calculation unit may rank the FS values of the three weather elements per month, select n candidate roads having a small sum of the three ranks, calculate a deviation from the average of the wind speed data among the n candidate roads Can select the smallest month as the representative month.

If the last day of the representative month of the selected future standard year is 31 days, the 30-day data is set to 31 days data And when the last day is 28, the data of 29 days and 30 days can be deleted.

A method of calculating future meteorological data according to an embodiment of the present invention includes: calculating future meteorological data of a total statistical period for a plurality of meteorological elements through simulation; Calculating a monthly long-term cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period and a monthly cumulative short-term distribution function of each year; Comparing the long-term cumulative distribution function and the short-term cumulative distribution function to calculate an FS value for each year; Selecting n candidate months having a small ranking of FS values by year; Calculating an average of the total statistical period of the future weather data calculated for the specific weather element and an average deviation of the candidate month; And generating a future standard year by selecting a month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as a representative month.

According to the future standard weather data calculation apparatus and method of the present invention, the reliability of the calculation of the period load necessary for the design of a building or a facility can be improved by using the future standard weather data compared to the past data.

1 is a configuration diagram of a future standard weather data calculation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a flowchart of a method of calculating future meteorological data according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph showing the average of the dry bulb temperatures, the year nearest to the average, and the CDF of the most distant year.
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the mean of the horizontal surface irradiation, the year nearest to the average, and the CDF of the year with the greatest difference.
5 is a graph showing the mean of the relative humidity, the year closest to the average, and the CDF of the year with the most difference.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings so that those skilled in the art can easily carry out the present invention. The present invention may, however, be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein. In order to clearly illustrate the present invention, parts not related to the description are omitted, and similar parts are denoted by like reference characters throughout the specification.

First, a description will be given of an apparatus for calculating a future standard meteorological data according to an embodiment of the present invention.

1 is a configuration diagram of a future standard weather data calculation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.

1, the future standard weather data calculation apparatus 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention includes a weather data calculation unit 110, a CDF calculation unit 120, an FS calculation unit 130, 140, and a standard year creating unit 150.

The weather data calculation unit 110 calculates future weather data of the total statistical period for a plurality of weather elements using simulation. In the embodiment according to the present invention, the weather data calculation unit 110 simulates the future weather data from 1980 to 2099 using the PRECIS simulation program and the East Asian boundary data, and calculates the values of dry bulb temperature, To obtain data. PRECIS is a program offered by the Met-Office. As one embodiment of the present invention, the total statistical period may be 120 years from 1980 to 2099. [

The CDF calculating unit 120 calculates the long-term cumulative distribution function of the monthly total statistical period and the cumulative short-term cumulative distribution function of each year using the cumulative distribution function formula. The cumulative distribution function is a function representing a probability that a certain value x1 is less than or equal to a specific x, and is a cumulative function expression.

The FS calculating unit 130 compares the long-term cumulative distribution function and the short-term cumulative distribution function using the FS statistic (Finkelstein-Schafer statistic) to calculate the FS value for each year.

The FS statistical method is an empirical methodology for selecting a single solution from observed meteorological data of a census period as a general method for calculating standard meteorological data. This method measures the similarity of two data distributions. It compares the distribution of daily mean meteorological data of each survey period with the distribution of daily meteorological data of each month, .

The candidate month selection unit 140 selects the n month in which the FS value of each year is small, as the candidate month.

The average deviation calculating unit 150 calculates the average of the total statistical period of the weather data calculated for the specific weather element and the average deviation of the candidate month.

The standard year creating unit 160 creates a future standard year by selecting the month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as the representative month.

Hereinafter, a method of calculating future weather data according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described.

The CDF calculation unit 120 calculates a monthly cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period for a plurality of weather elements and a monthly cumulative distribution function for each year using an expression of a cumulative distribution function (S220). The excitation gas phase element includes dry bulb temperature, horizontal surface pre-irradiation and relative humidity, and future weather data is daily average data on the weather element.

That is, all the values of the meteorological elements of the total statistical period corresponding to each month are sorted in ascending order, and then the daily average cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period is calculated using the CDF function expression as shown in Equation 2 below.

는 총 통계기간 데이터 중 한 달에 속하는 일 평균의

값의 순위를 나타내고, N은 총 통계기간의 데이터 중 한 달 내의 일수를 나타내고, p는 기상요소(건구온도, 수평면 전 일사량, 상대습도)를 나타내고, m은 월을 나타낸다.here,

Of the total statistical period data belongs to one month of the daily average

N represents the number of days in one month of the data of the total statistical period, p represents the weather element (dry bulb temperature, horizontal irradiation, relative humidity), and m represents the month.

In addition, all values of each month belonging to one month of the total statistical period data are sorted in ascending order, and the daily average cumulative distribution function of each month is calculated through the following equation (3).

는 총 통계기간 중 각 월별에 해당하는 연도의 일평균

값의 순위를 나타내고, n은 총 통계기간 중 각 월별에 해당하는 연도의 일수를 나타내고, p는 기상요소 (건구온도, 수평면 전 일사량, 상대습도)를 나타내고, y는 년을 나타내고, m은 월을 나타낸다.here,

Is the daily average of the year corresponding to each month in the total statistical period

Where n represents the number of days in the year corresponding to each month in the total statistical period, p represents the weather element (dry bulb temperature, horizontal irradiation, relative humidity), y represents year, m represents month .

Next, the FS calculating unit 130 compares the long-term cumulative distribution function and the short-term cumulative distribution function using the FS statistic (Finkelstein-Schafer statistic) to calculate the FS value for each year (S230).

First, FS (p, y, m) is calculated from the FS statistic as shown in the following Equation 4 in order to compare the monthly long-term CDF with the short-term CDF.

FIGS. 3 to 6 are graphs showing the CDF difference of the year with the greatest difference from the dry bulb temperature, the horizontal irradiation amount, the average relative humidity, the year close to the average, and the average.

In Figures 3 to 6, the black line represents the average, the blue line represents the year nearest the average, and the red line represents the year with the greatest difference from the average.

Next, the candidate month selection unit 140 selects n month, in which the FS value of each year is small, as the candidate month (S240).

That is, according to the embodiment of the present invention, the monthly FS (p, y, m) values are sorted in ascending order, and the three weather elements are sorted according to the year corresponding to each month and then added up. N = 3 candidate months are selected in the order of the total sum of the rankings.

Next, the average deviation calculating unit 150 calculates the average of the total statistical period of the weather data calculated for the specific weather element and the average deviation of the candidate month (S250). That is, the average deviation calculating section 150 calculates the average value of the wind speed data as the specific weather element. Also, the average of all the wind speed data for the total statistical period corresponding to the month is obtained, and the deviation from the average value is obtained. For the selection of the representative month, BEST is selected as the month having the small deviation of the average of the wind speed data among n = 3 candidate months, and it is designated as the representative month corresponding to the month.

In this process, the weather data calculation unit 110 collects wind speed data for n = 3 candidate months using the PRECIS simulation.

Next, the standard year creating unit 160 creates a standard year by selecting a month having a small deviation of the average of the wind speed data in the candidate month (S260).

That is, the monthly FS (p, y, m) values are sorted in ascending order, and the three weather elements are sorted by the year corresponding to each month, and then the ranking is added. The three candidate months are selected in such a way that the sum of the rankings is small, and an average value of the wind speed data of the corresponding year is obtained. Also, the average of all the wind speed data for the total statistical period corresponding to the month is obtained, and the deviation from the average value is obtained. For the selection of the representative month, BEST is selected as the month in which the deviation of the wind speed data from the average of the three candidate months is small, and designated as the representative month corresponding to the month.

Future weather data from 1980 to 2099 are set at 30 days per month, so 360 days for 12 months. Therefore, for the January, March, May, July, August, and October December corresponding to the big month, the 30 day data of each month is copied and used as the 31st day data. For February, the data for February 29 and February 30 are deleted. In the case of February, the last day of the 29th, delete the 30-day data.

In addition, since the horizontal irradiation amount, the horizontal direct irradiation amount and the clouding amount are data of 3 hours unit, they are converted into 1 hour unit by linear interpolation. In order to combine the representative month with a virtual year, the last 8 hours of each month and the first 8 hours of the next month must be linked smoothly. Also, in order for the standard year to be used repeatedly in the simulation, this interpolation is performed including the last 8 hours of December and the first 8 hours of January of the following year.

As described above, according to the future standard meteorological data calculation apparatus and method according to the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to increase the reliability of the calculation of the period load necessary for designing the drains or facilities using the future standard meteorological data as compared with the past data.

The present invention has been described above with reference to the embodiments. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Therefore, the disclosed embodiments should be considered in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense. Therefore, the scope of the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, but should be construed to include various embodiments within the scope of the claims and equivalents thereof.

100: Future standard weather data output device,
110: weather data calculation unit, 120: CDF calculation unit,
130: FS calculation unit, 140: candidate month line government,
150: average deviation calculating section, 160: standard year preparing section

Claims (10)

A meteorological data calculation unit for calculating future meteorological data of a total statistical period for meteorological elements including dry bulb temperature, horizontal irradiation amount and relative humidity through simulation;
A CDF calculating unit for calculating a monthly long-term cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period and a monthly cumulative cumulative distribution function of each year;
The long term cumulative distribution function and the short term cumulative distribution function are compared and the order of the FS values by year is sorted in ascending order and the sum of the order of the dry bulb temperature, the horizontal front surface irradiation amount and the relative humidity is calculated. An FS calculation unit for selecting candidate schedules;
A candidate month selecting unit for selecting n candidate months having a small ranking of FS values by year;
An average deviation calculation unit for calculating an average of the total statistical period of the future weather data calculated for the specific weather element and an average deviation of the candidate month; And
And a standard year generating unit for generating a future standard year by selecting a month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as a representative month. The method according to claim 1,
Wherein the future weather data comprises:
And means for calculating average daily data on the meteorological element. delete The method according to claim 1,
Wherein the average deviation calculator calculates,
The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the nth candidate month having the smallest sum of the three rankings is selected, and the month having the smallest deviation from the average of the wind speed data is selected as the representative month Standard meteorological data output device. 5. The method of claim 4,
The standard year compilation unit,
Wherein each month of the selected future standard year is set to 30 days, and if the last day of the representative month of the selected future standard year is 31 days, 30 days of data is used as 31 days of data, The data of the 29th and 30th days is deleted, and the data of the 30th day is deleted when the last day is 29th. 1. A meteorological data calculation method using a future standard meteorological data calculation device,
Calculating future meteorological data of a total statistical period for a meteorological element including dry bulb temperature, horizontal surface irradiance and relative humidity through simulation;
Calculating a monthly long-term cumulative distribution function of the total statistical period and a monthly cumulative short-term distribution function of each year;
The long term cumulative distribution function and the short term cumulative distribution function are compared and the order of the FS values by year is sorted in ascending order and the sum of the order of the dry bulb temperature, the horizontal front surface irradiation amount and the relative humidity is calculated. Selecting candidate months;
Selecting n candidate months having a small ranking of FS values by year;
Calculating an average of the total statistical period of the future weather data calculated for the specific weather element and an average deviation of the candidate month; And
And generating a future standard year by selecting a month having the smallest average deviation among the candidate months as a representative month. The method according to claim 6,
Wherein the future weather data comprises:
And calculating the average daily data on the meteorological element. delete The method according to claim 6,
Wherein the calculating the average deviation comprises:
The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the nth candidate month having the smallest sum of the three ranking is selected, and the month having the smallest deviation from the average of the wind speed data is selected as the representative month How to Calculate Future Standard Weather Data. 10. The method of claim 9,
The step of creating the future standard year comprises:
Wherein each month of the selected future standard year is set to 30 days, and if the last day of the representative month of the selected future standard year is 31 days, 30 days of data is used as 31 days of data, The data of the 29th and 30th days is deleted, and the data of the 30th day is deleted when the last day is 29th.

Images