KR101472061B1 - A System For Planning And Managing Using Power Prediction Model - Google Patents

Abstract

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention includes a predictor for calculating a predicted power amount to be consumed in a receiving space, a controller for controlling the amount of power produced by the power generator to satisfy the predicted power amount, And a correction unit for correcting a factor used in calculating the predicted power amount by comparing the consumed power amount consumed in the receiving area with the predicted power amount, Management is possible.

Description

{A System For Planning And Managing Using Power Prediction Model}

The present invention relates to a power generation prediction model-based planning and sales management system that predicts power demand and generates and manages predicted power.

Due to technological advances, the use of various electric power products is continuously increasing. As a result, demand for electric power is steadily increasing.

Especially, in the period of relatively high temperature and low temperature, the consumption of electric power is very large due to the use of the aircon or heater. It may be unreasonable to construct a power plant for the same period as hydroelectric power plants in order to consume such a temporary increase in power consumption.

In order to solve this problem, there is a need for a small-scale power generation facility capable of quickly supplying power to a predetermined area and means for managing the power generation facility.

Korean Patent Registration No. 1094081 discloses a technique for supplying commercial power input to a load with high efficiency power conversion. However, there is no configuration that provides the required power in a given area.

Korean Patent Registration No. 1094081

The present invention is to provide a power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system that predicts the demand of electric power and produces and manages predicted electric power.

It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory and are not intended to limit the invention to the precise forms disclosed. Other objects, which will be apparent to those skilled in the art, It will be possible.

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention includes a predictor for calculating a predicted power amount to be consumed in a receiving space, a controller for controlling the amount of power produced by the power generator to satisfy the predicted power amount, And a correction unit for correcting the factor used for calculating the predicted power by comparing the consumed power amount consumed in the receiving area with the predicted power amount.

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operating system of the present invention includes a predictor for calculating a predicted power consumption to be consumed in a first period in a receiving area, and a predictor for calculating a difference between the consumed power consumed in the first period and the predicted power amount And a correction unit for correcting a factor used for calculation of the predicted power amount based on the difference value.

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention includes a power generation unit provided with a generator for generating electric power to be provided in a receiving zone, and a power generation unit for generating power to be supplied to the power generation unit, And a control unit for controlling the display unit.

The power generation prediction model based planning and sales management system of the present invention can minimize the unnecessary waste of resources required for power generation by predicting the amount of power consumed in the receiving area and producing the predicted amount of power.

In addition, since the generator can be driven in a planned manner according to the predicted amount of electric power, the electric power generated by the generator can be efficiently managed.

Furthermore, by comparing the predicted power amount with the actually consumed power amount, the predicted reliability of the power amount can be gradually increased.

1 is a schematic diagram showing a power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. The sizes and shapes of the components shown in the drawings may be exaggerated for clarity and convenience. In addition, terms defined in consideration of the configuration and operation of the present invention may be changed according to the intention or custom of the user, the operator. Definitions of these terms should be based on the content of this specification.

1 is a schematic diagram showing a power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention.

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operating system shown in FIG. 1 may include a predictor 110, a controller 130, a calculator 150, and a corrector 170.

The prediction unit 110 can calculate the predicted power amount to be consumed in the receiving area. The receiving zone may be a zone where power generated by the power generating unit 190 is supplied. The power consumed at the first time in the receiving zone may be the power generated at the power generation unit 190 at the 0th time before the first time. According to this, the power generation section 190 must produce power to be consumed in the receiving zone in advance. Therefore, it is important to calculate the predicted power to be consumed in the receiving area.

Unnecessary waste of resources consumed in the power generation unit 190 can be minimized according to the reliability of the predicted power amount. Although various power stations use various statistical data and human resources to predict power consumption, it is difficult to predict such power consumption.

Small power generation companies can be 200Kw or less for alternative power and 35,000Kw or less for other power generation companies.

According to the prediction unit 110, the predicted power amount of the receiving zone can be automatically provided. The predicted power amount (data value) may be provided to the control unit 130, for example.

The control unit 130 can control the amount of power produced by the power generation unit 190 to satisfy the predicted power amount. For this, the control unit 130 receives and stores the maximum amount of power amount data that can be produced by the plurality of power generation units 190. When the predicted power amount exceeds the maximum output amount of the predetermined power generation unit 190, And if there is no power generation unit 190 satisfying the predicted power amount, a plurality of power generation units 190 can be extracted and the extracted plurality of power generation units 190 can be controlled together.

The calculating unit 150 can calculate the electric power use cost of the receiving area at the predicted electric power amount. Because of the nature of power trading, the selling price of the power can be determined before power is supplied. Therefore, it is important to reliably obtain the predicted power amount.

The correction unit 170 can be used to reliably obtain the predicted power amount required by the control unit 130 and the calculation unit 150 described above.

The correcting unit 170 can correct the factor used in calculating the predicted power amount by comparing the consumed power amount consumed in the receiving area with the predicted power amount.

For example, when the predictor 110 calculates the predicted power consumption to be consumed in the first period in the receiving zone, the corrector 170 calculates a difference value between the consumed power and the predicted power consumed in the first period in the receiving zone And the factor used for calculation of the predicted power amount can be corrected on the basis of the difference value.

The predicted power amount can be calculated by the following equation (1).

The average value of the electricity amount statistics may be an average value of the electricity amount consumed in the receiving area. The statistics at this time may include information on weather information, special days such as holidays or anniversaries, and the like. For example, the amount of power consumed at minus 10 degrees or the amount of power consumed on election day may be included in the statistics.

The value of the meteorological power generation model may be a value obtained by modeling the amount of consumed power fluctuating depending on weather and climate change. The values of the meteorological power generation model can vary. For example, it is common to show similar temperatures every year during the same period, but the temperature is gradually increasing due to global warming. The value of the meteorological power generation model may include a relational expression of power consumption that varies with such meteorological or climatic changes.

The error value is an error that occurs between the calculated value and the measured value. The error value may be included in the factor corrected by the corrector 170. The calculated value may be a predicted power amount calculated by applying Equation (1) to the first period and an amount of consumed power actually consumed in the first period. Even if the weather information between the measured value and the measured value are all the same, there is an error that can not be understood due to the difference between theory and reality. This error can also be included in the upper error value. The error value may also include an error between the weather information (predicted) reflected in the calculated value and the weather information (measured) reflected in the measured value.

Standby standby power is the amount of power that must be provided to the receiving area in preparation for an emergency, and may vary according to national policy. The predicted power amount has a value larger than the consumed power amount due to the standby ready power amount.

The correcting unit 170 calculates a predicted value indicating the influence of the meteorological error on the difference value by calculating the predicted meteorological information between the predicted meteorological information of the first period and the meteorological information measured in the first period , And the factor can be corrected by the estimated value.

For example, when the difference between the consumed power and the predicted power is 50,000 Kw, the predicted first temperature is 29 degrees, and the measured first temperature is 31 degrees, the corrector 170 calculates 25,000 Kw Can be calculated as an estimated value. The tolerance range allowed by the weather forecast technology is changed according to the development of the technology and the change of the climate. If the meteorological error range at the next prediction is 3 degrees, 25,000 Kw × 3 = 75,000 Kw is assigned to the error value, can do. The weather information may include temperature, humidity, wind volume, precipitation, and snowfall.

If there is an estimated value calculated for the same gas phase error before the first period, the corrector 170 selects a smaller one of the estimated value and the estimated value as the first correction value, and subtracts the first correction value from the difference value It is possible to correct the factor with the first correction value and the second correction value by setting one value as the second correction value.

In the above example, if the estimated value in the first period is 20,000 Kw per 1 degree, it is smaller than 25,000 Kw per 1 degree estimated in the first period, so 20,000 Kw per 1 degree is the first correction value. Since the gas phase error is 2 degrees, 10,000 Kw obtained by subtracting the first correction value twice from the difference value of 50,000 Kw becomes the second correction value. If the gas flow error range at the time of the next prediction is 3 degrees, 20,000 Kw × 3 + 10,000 Kw = 70,000 Kw can be substituted into the error value which is a factor of the equation (1).

The first correction value varies greatly, for example, by doubling the value in units of 1 degree or the like. Therefore, selecting a smaller value can increase the reliability. Of course, the error thus generated is canceled by the second correction value.

The power generation prediction model-based planning and sales operation system of the present invention may include a power generation unit 190 provided with a generator for generating electric power to be provided in a receiving area. At this time, the control unit 130 may control the power generation unit 190 so that the amount of power produced by the power generation unit 190 satisfies a predicted amount of power consumed in the receiving space.

The generator 190 may be provided with a plurality of generators. At this time, the controller 130 can grasp the maximum power generation capacity of each generator, and can select and drive one or more generators so that the sum of the maximum power generation capacities satisfies the predicted power amount.

The selection at this time can be made randomly within a range in which the sum of the maximum generating capacity satisfies the predicted power amount. Or it may be done with certain rules, such as driving one generator at the earliest and the other at the latest.

For example, when m generators (where m is a natural number) are provided in the power generation section 190, the nth power generator (where 2? N? M) And can be driven in a state of being driven with a capacity.

For example, Table 1 and Table 2 will be described.

The control unit 130 can select and drive the generator to be driven in accordance with the predicted power amount over time.

time 0 One 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 value 30 30 30 30 30 35 50 50 70 90 95 100 time 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 value 110 130 150 150 140 140 150 160 150 110 80 60

It is assumed that the predicted power amount calculated by the prediction unit 110 is as shown in Table 1. The unit of the value is 10,000 Kw.

time 0 One 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 No. 1 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 2 50 50 50 50 50 75 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 3 50 50 100 100 100 100 No. 4 50 100 100 100 No. 5 50 75 100 No. 6 No. 7 No. 8 No. 9 No. 10 time 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 No. 1 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 3 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 4 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 5 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 6 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 50 No. 7 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 No. 8 100 50 50 100 50 No. 9 100 No. 10 50

It is assumed that ten generators are provided in the generator 190 from No. 1 to No. 10 and the maximum generating capacity of each generator is 200,000 Kw. The unit value of each generator is% utilization rate.

In Table 1, the predicted power of time 0 is 300,000 Kw. First, the No. 1 generator is driven at 100% and produces 200,000 Kw. The No. 2 generator is driven with the No. 1 generator driven at 100%. The No. 2 generator is driven at 50% and produces 100,000 Kw.

In Table 6, the predicted power of time 6 is 500,000 Kw. First, the No. 1 generator is driven at 100% and produces 200,000 Kw. The No. 2 generator is driven with the No. 1 generator driven at 100%. The No. 2 generator is also driven by 100%, producing 200,000 Kw. In the state where the No. 2 generator is driven at 100%, the No. 3 generator is driven at 50% to produce 100,000 Kw, and the power generator 190 produces 500,000 Kw.

When the generator 190 is driven, the generator 1 is always driven. Therefore, if the No. 1 generator is installed as a reliable product, other generators may be installed with relatively low safety products. In addition, since the number of generators having a higher number is higher, the efficiency of maintenance management can be increased, for example, by first checking a generator having a higher number of frequencies.

Meanwhile, the power generation unit 190 and the control unit 130 may be separately installed. At this time, the control unit 130 may control one or more power generating units 190. In the case of a small-scale power generation company, it is difficult to understand at what time and at what capacity the generator is provided. According to the predictor 110, the corrector 170, and the controller 130 of the present invention, it is possible to clearly know at what time and at which capacity the drive should be performed, and by automatically driving the generator 190, You do not have to take. Since there may be a plurality of small-scale power generation companies, it is difficult to provide the prediction unit 110, the correction unit 170, and the control unit 130 for each small-sized power generation company.

Accordingly, a plurality of power generation units 190 can be connected to the management system by separately including a predicting unit 110, a correction unit 170, and a control unit 130 in a separate management system and managing the management system separately from the power generation unit 190. [ It can be made available.

While the invention has been shown and described with reference to certain preferred embodiments thereof, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Accordingly, the true scope of the present invention should be determined by the following claims.

110 ... prediction unit 130 ... control unit
150 ... calculation unit 170 ... correction unit
190 ... power generation section

Claims (9)

A predictor for calculating a predicted power to be consumed in the first period in the receiving zone;
A control unit for controlling the amount of power produced by the power generation unit to satisfy the predicted power amount;
A calculating unit for calculating a power usage cost of the receiving space at the predicted power amount;
Calculating a difference between the consumed power amount consumed in the first period and the predicted power amount in the receiving zone and correcting a factor used for calculating the predicted power amount based on the difference value, And a step of calculating an estimated value indicating an influence of the meteorological error on the difference value and calculating the estimated value based on the difference between the meteorological information of the first period and the meteorological information measured in the first period, A complementary government;
Wherein a plurality of generators for generating electric power to be provided in a receiving space are provided, m generators (where m is a natural number) are provided, and an nth generator (where 2? N? A power generation section driven in a state where the (n-1) th generator is driven at a maximum power generation capacity; And
And a control unit for controlling the power generation unit so as to determine the maximum power generation capacity of each of the plurality of generators so that the amount of power generated by the power generation unit satisfies a predicted power amount consumed in the receiving zone, And a controller for selecting a generator to be driven in accordance with a predicted power amount according to time,
The predicted power amount is calculated by the following equation,
Estimated amount of electricity = average value of electricity amount ± average value of electricity generation value ± error value +
Here, the average value of the electricity amount statistics is an average value of the electricity amount statistics consumed in the receiving area. The statistics include information on special days including weather information, holidays or anniversaries, and the value of the weather development model is consumed The value of the power model is a value that reflects the change in power consumption depending on the weather or climate change. The error value is an error that occurs between the arithmetic value and the actual value and can be included in the factor corrected by the correction value. And the calculated value includes an estimated power amount calculated by applying the above equation for the first period or a consumed power amount actually consumed in the first period And the standby ready power is the amount of power that must be provided to the receiving area in preparation for an emergency,
Wherein a pre-estimated value calculated for the gas phase error exists before the first period,
Wherein the correction unit selects a smaller one of the estimated value and the estimated value as a first correction value and sets a value obtained by subtracting the first correction value from the difference value as a second correction value, 2 Predictive model-based planning and sales operating system that compensates for these factors with correction values. delete delete delete delete delete delete delete delete

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