KR101245650B1 - System and Method for quantitatively predicting and evaluating the result of Research/Development Technology - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a system and method for quantitatively predicting and evaluating the performance of R & D technology. The R & D technology predictive evaluation system of the present invention is a determinant for determining a technology life cycle of a plurality of terminated R & D technologies. Estimated Technology Life Cycle Calculation Unit, which calculates the statistical expected technology life cycle for the R & D technology currently being researched, and Estimated Input Cost, which calculates the present value of the expected costs to be invested in the R & D technology based on the calculated expected technology life cycle. Present value calculation section, expected benefit cost present value calculation section that calculates the present value of the benefit cost for the performance expected to be obtained by the R & D technology based on the expected life cycle of the technology, and the forecast for the R & D technology Benefit Cost The estimated total cost of R & D technology by subtracting the expected input cost present value from the present value. Expected Net Profit to Calculate Present Value It includes the present value calculation section, which provides a more objective way to predict and evaluate the performance of R & D technology and quantitatively evaluate the performance of R & D technology before the end of the technology life cycle. Can be predicted and evaluated

Description

System and Method for quantitatively predicting and evaluating the result of Research / Development Technology}

The present invention relates to a system and method for evaluating the performance of R & D technology, and more particularly, to a system and method for predicting and quantitatively evaluating the performance of R & D technology while research on R & D technology is in progress. It is about.

The construction industry of Korea has provided the driving force to achieve the miracle of the Han River through the development of national land and the expansion of infrastructure from the early stage of industrialization. In addition, the construction industry is a cornerstone for economic development, and has played an important role in the national economy, having a great job creation effect and profoundly affecting the quality of life of the people. In particular, national research and development (R & D) projects in the construction sector have increased dramatically. In 2009, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 32 high-tech urban development projects, future railway technology development projects, and marine energy commercialization technology development projects. It said it plans to invest 535 billion won. In addition, the cost of investment in technology development by private construction companies increased from KRW 1.6 trillion in 2004 to KRW 5.43 trillion in 2008.

However, in order to revitalize construction R & D projects through continuous investment in budget, it is necessary to accurately predict and evaluate the performance of existing construction R & D projects, and based on this, future investment plans and new investments for existing R & D technologies are needed. It is necessary to use it as a reference for determining construction R & D technology. In other words, R & D performance evaluation can be defined as "evaluating inputs, actions, calculations and results in the R & D process to achieve the purpose of the organization through improving R & D productivity." The importance of R & D performance evaluation is in the short term a means of determining the success or failure of a project, but in the long run, it is a standard for achieving better performance.

Along with the recent financial crisis in the US, securing a unique product for builders in a rapidly changing business environment is directly linked to the survival of construction companies. Although technological competitiveness based on this is the result of continuous R & D, private R & D investment led by companies and top management has not been activated due to the lack of established methods for measuring and evaluating R & D performance. to be.

Research on the performance of the construction sector has been limited to construction projects and construction companies. Regarding measuring construction R & D performance, research was conducted in Korea in the case of public construction R & D.

In the United States, rather than performance research limited to construction R & D, performance measures for R & D are being taken at an industrial level, such as the Advanced Technology Program (ATP). The CII (Construction Industry Institute), a private organization, treats R & D as a project and conducts research to discover best practices and verify their utility.

Although research for public construction R & D performance management is being conducted in Korea, as mentioned above, the existing research focused on public construction R & D. However, these studies are rarely conducted on evaluation through standardized quantitative prediction through objective cost estimation for R & D before the end of the accurate technical life cycle.

An object of the present invention for solving the above problems is to provide a quantitative predictive evaluation system and method of R & D technology that can more objectively predict and evaluate the performance of R & D technology.

Another object of the present invention is to provide a system and method for providing a standardized algorithm capable of quantitatively predicting and evaluating the performance of R & D technology before the end of the technical life cycle.

R & D technology prediction evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention for achieving the above object, statistically about the research and development technology currently being researched from the determinants that determine the technology life cycle of a plurality of terminated R & D technologies An expected technical life cycle calculation unit for calculating an expected technical life cycle; An estimated input cost present value calculating unit configured to calculate a present value of an estimated cost to be input to the R & D technology based on the estimated technical life cycle calculated; An estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit that calculates a present value of benefit costs for performance expected to be obtained by the research and development technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated; And an estimated net profit present value calculation unit that calculates a present value of an estimated total net profit for the R & D technology by subtracting the present input cost current value from the estimated benefit cost present value for the R & D technology. .

 In this embodiment, the expected technology life cycle calculation unit, a collection unit for receiving and collecting data on the plurality of the already completed R & D technologies; An extraction unit for extracting each actual technology life cycle information from data on the R & D technologies collected by the collection unit; A determinant setting unit for setting the determinant for determining a technology life cycle of the R & D technologies extracted by the extracting unit; An analyzer for analyzing a correlation between the determinant set by the determinant setting unit and the technology life cycle extracted by the extracting unit; A derivation unit for deriving a multiple linear regression equation having the determinant as a variable and the technical life cycle as a result; And a calculation unit for calculating a statistically expected technical life cycle of the R & D technology currently under study based on the multiple linear regression equations.

The determinant includes a research field, a research period, a research cost, a research purpose, a utilization result, and a utilization evaluation of the research and development technology.

이며, 여기서

: 기술생애주기 (년),

: 결정인자 중 연구분야 (건축=1, 환경=2, 토목=3, 플랜트=4, 에너지=5), 및

: 결정인자 중 연구목적 (시방개발=1, 공법개발=2, 제품개발=3, 표준개발=4, 기타개발=5)이다. In this embodiment, the multiple linear regression equation is

, Where

: Technical life cycle (years),

: Research field among determinants (building = 1, environment = 2, civil engineering = 3, plant = 4, energy = 5), and

Among the determinants: research purpose (specific development = 1, method development = 2, product development = 3, standard development = 4, other development = 5).

In the present embodiment, the estimated input cost present value calculation unit may include a pre-start input cost present value acquisition unit which obtains a present value of the cost inputted before the start of research on the R & D technology; According to the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit, an expected performance cost present value for calculating an expected research performance period and an expected performance cost for each year after the start of the research development period. A calculator; The research on the R & D technology based on the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit and the expected research performance period of the R & D technology calculated by the present value calculation unit A project value input unit for calculating the estimated input cost after completion of calculating the expected input cost after completion; And a summing unit which adds the calculated present value of the pre-initiation input cost, the present value of the expected execution cost, and the present value of the estimated input cost after completion, to obtain a present value of the expected input cost for the R & D technology. It is configured to include.

In this embodiment, the estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit, based on the calculated expected technology life cycle of the R & D technology, the continuous expected benefit for calculating the expected benefit present value for the predicted continuous performance information of the R & D technology Present value calculator; A one-time estimated benefit present value calculation unit that calculates an expected benefit present value for predicted one-time performance information of the R & D technology based on the calculated expected technology life cycle of the R & D technology; And a summation unit configured to add the calculated presently expected benefit present value for the R & D technology and the one-time expected benefit present value to obtain the estimated benefit cost present value for the R & D technology.

In the present embodiment, the continuous expected benefit present value calculation unit comprises: a continuous performance indicator extracting unit for extracting a continuous performance indicator from a plurality of indicators set as the performance indicator of the R & D technology; A continuous predictive outcome extracting unit configured to extract predicted continuous predictive outcome information of the research and development technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated for the research and development technology in response to the extracted continuous performance indicators; A yearly continuous predictive performance classification unit for classifying the continuous predictive performance information extracted based on the expected technical life cycle for each year; And a continuous forecasting performance amount for each year for calculating the continuous forecasting performance information classified by year, and calculating the present value of the monetary benefit of the continuous forecasting performance information based on the technical life cycle and a discount rate. do.

In the present embodiment, the continuous performance indicators include monetary performance indicators and non-monetary performance indicators.

In this embodiment, the one-time expected benefit present value calculation unit, a one-time performance index extraction unit for extracting a one-time performance indicator from a plurality of indicators set as the performance indicator of the R & D technology; A one-time prediction result extracting unit that extracts expected one-time prediction performance information of the R & D technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated for the R & D technology, in response to the extracted one-time performance indicator; A single-year forecasting performance classification unit for classifying the one-time forecasting performance information extracted based on the expected technology life cycle by year; And a one-time one-time forecasting performance amount calculation unit for calculating the one-time forecasting performance information categorized by year and calculating the present value of the monetary benefit of the one-time forecasting performance information based on the technical life cycle and the discount rate. It is configured to include.

In this embodiment, the one-time performance indicator includes a non-monetary performance indicator. Here, the amount-based performance indicators include cost reduction amount, construction period reduction amount, technology fee income amount, sales profit generation amount, defect prevention amount, civil prevention amount, maintenance cost reduction amount, and period donation amount. In addition, the non-monetary performance indicators include the expected life expectancy, the number of articles published in Korea, the number of articles published in foreign countries, the number of articles published in industrial properties, the number of registrations of industrial property rights, the number of new technologies, the number of field technical support, the number of applied sites, the number of external awards, the number of external public relations, In-house standardization, design reflection, and PQ (Pre-Qualification) are included.

In the present embodiment, the R & D technology prediction evaluation system divides the estimated total profit present value calculated by the estimated present value present value calculation unit by the present value of the estimated input cost calculated by the estimated input cost present value calculation unit. It further includes; an expected return on investment calculation unit for calculating the expected return on investment.

According to the present invention, through the quantitative predictive evaluation system and method of R & D technology, the objective of R & D technology can be predicted and evaluated more objectively, and the performance of R & D technology is quantitatively predicted before the end of the technology life cycle. Can provide a standardized algorithm that can be evaluated.

1 is a graph showing a technology life cycle from the start of a general R & D technology to the end of a developed technology.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a system for quantitatively predicting and evaluating the performance of R & D technology by predicting a technology life cycle at the time of initiation of R & D technology according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the expected life cycle calculation unit shown in FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4 is a graph showing a technology life cycle change according to research field classification according to an embodiment of the present invention.
5 is a graph showing the life cycle change of technology according to the study period according to an embodiment of the present invention.
6 is a graph showing a change in technology life cycle according to the research cost according to an embodiment of the present invention.
7 is a graph showing a change in the life cycle of technology according to the research purpose according to an embodiment of the present invention.
8 is a graph showing a technology life cycle change according to the utilization performance according to an embodiment of the present invention.
9 is a graph showing a technology life cycle change according to utilization and evaluation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
10 is a graph showing the correlation coefficient between the potential determinant and the technology life cycle for determining the technology life cycle according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 11 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of an estimated input cost present value calculator shown in FIG. 2 according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.
12 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of an estimated benefit cost present value calculator shown in FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 13 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of the continuous expected benefit calculator shown in FIG. 12 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
14 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of the one-time estimated benefit calculator shown in FIG. 12 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is to be noted that the same elements among the drawings are denoted by the same reference numerals whenever possible. In the following description, well-known functions or constructions are not described in detail since they would obscure the invention in unnecessary detail.

New technologies or methods developed as a result of research and development (R & D) technologies end their lifespan when they are superior to existing ones or can no longer be used due to changes in laws or institutions and consumer demands. In this way, it is the technology life cycle of R & D technology that represents the concept of time until the technology is created and finished.

The present invention provides a performance prediction evaluation method for predicting and measuring the performance of the R & D technology in progress before the end of the technical life cycle. In other words, the performance prediction evaluation method is a method of calculating the amount of money by predicting the performance of the ongoing R & D technology. 1 is a graph showing a technology life cycle from the start of a general R & D technology to the end of a developed technology.

As shown, the technical life cycle of the R & D technology extends from before the start of the research (0) to the end of the technical life cycle (c) through the start of the research (a) and the end of the research (b). It is configured to include.

Here, before the start of the research and development of the R & D technology (0) to the end of the research (b), the expenditure is higher than the income, so that the negative result is obtained, and from the end of the research (b) to the end of the technology life cycle ( c) It is common to get positive results because up to income is more than expenditure. At this time, the input cost for R & D technology is largely the cost before the start of research (0) to the start of research (a). It can be divided into a performance cost (B), which is a cost input up to the time point (b), and a post-completion cost (C), which is a performance management maintenance cost, which is injected from the end of the study (b) to the end of the technical life cycle (c).

The performance prediction evaluation of the R & D technology according to the present invention performs the performance prediction evaluation at a period (a to c) before the end of the technical life cycle, preferably, at the time of initiation (a) of the R & D technology. Therefore, the performance prediction evaluation of R & D technology according to the embodiment of the present invention is the actual cost only before the start of the R & D technology, and the input after completion, which is the execution cost to be input during the R & D technology and the cost to be input after completion. Costs and expected outcomes are calculated as expected amounts.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a system for quantitatively predicting and evaluating the performance of R & D technology by predicting a technology life cycle at the time of initiation of R & D technology according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the R & D technology predictive evaluation system includes a control unit 110, an input unit 122, and an output unit for controlling the overall operation of the system for predicting and managing the performance of the R & D technology, and inputting and outputting necessary information. 124).

In addition, in order to predict and evaluate the R & D technology according to the embodiment of the present invention, the R & D technology predictive evaluation system includes: an expected technology life cycle calculator 130, an estimated input cost present value calculator 200, and an expected benefit cost The present value calculation unit 300, the estimated net profit present value calculation unit 140, and the expected investment yield calculation unit 160 are further configured.

Meanwhile, the R & D technology prediction evaluation system according to the embodiment of the present invention includes a database that stores and manages information for performance prediction evaluation of the R & D technology. Specifically, the R & D technology prediction evaluation system according to the embodiment of the present invention, the R & D technology database (DB) 910, the expected technology life cycle database (DB) 930, the performance indicator database (DB) 950, Predictive performance database (DB) 970, and predictive evaluation database (DB) 990.

Prior to developing a method for predicting and evaluating the performance of the R & D technology of the present invention, the information stored in the above databases according to the present invention will be briefly described.

The research and development technology database (DB) 910 stores and manages data on a plurality of research and development technologies in which past research has been performed.

The expected technology life cycle database (DB) 930 stores and manages the expected technology life cycle information on the research and development technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit 130.

The performance indicator database (DB) 950 stores and manages performance indicators, which are indicators that can be recognized as performances from the research stage of R & D technology to the end of the technical life. In this case, the performance indicators are classified into monetary performance indicators that can calculate the results as amounts by arithmetic calculations and non-monetary performance indicators that can calculate the results as amounts by logical calculations. In this embodiment, the quantitative performance indicators may be divided into cost reduction, construction period reduction amount, technology fee income amount, sales profit generation amount, defect prevention amount, civil prevention amount, maintenance cost reduction amount, and period grant amount. In addition, non-monetary performance indicators include the expected life expectancy, the number of articles published in Korea, the number of articles published in foreign countries, the number of articles published in industrial property rights, the number of new technologies, the number of field technical support, the number of applied sites, the number of external awards, the number of external public relations, and the company's standardization. The number of cases, the number of design reflections, and PQ (Pre-Qualification) can be divided into the number of point reflections.

The expected performance database (DB) 970 is expected to be achieved from the start of the R & D technology until the expected end of the technical life price, based on the performance indicators stored in the performance indicator database 950 according to the expected life cycle. Store and manage performance information. At this time, the predicted performance information stored includes the quantitative performance information and the non-quantitative performance information.

The predictive evaluation database 990 stores and manages the performance predictive evaluation result information for the R & D technology according to the expected technology life cycle.

Hereinafter, a detailed description will be given of predicting and evaluating the performance of the R & D technology by the R & D technology predictive evaluation system having the above configuration.

The controller 110 controls the overall operation of the system for predicting and evaluating the performance of the R & D technology.

The input unit 122 includes an interface for inputting information on research and development technology, information for calculating an expected technology life cycle, performance indicators, expected performance information, and the like.

The output unit 124 displays information input through the input unit 122 and information performed according to the control of the controller 110 through the screen.

The expected technology life cycle calculation unit 130 calculates and predicts the technology life cycle of the present R & D technology based on the statistics of the technology life cycle of the other R & D technologies that have completed the research stored in the R & D technology database 910. It is stored and managed in the technology life cycle database (930). A method of calculating a technology life cycle according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIG. 3.

Hereinafter, a detailed description will be given of performing a predictive evaluation for each performance based on the performance indicators of the R & D technology according to the expected technology life cycle.

Estimated input cost present value calculation unit 200 is to estimate the performance of the R & D technology in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, the current of the cost input before the start of research on R & D technology and the cost to be input after the start of research Calculate the value The cost to be invested after the start of the study is calculated based on the expected technical life cycle.

Here, the input cost is the input cost before starting the research on R & D technology, the execution cost which is the cost to be input during the research on R & D technology, and after the research on R & D technology is completed. It can be divided into input costs after completion, which is a cost to be input. That is, the estimated input cost present value calculation unit 200 calculates the input value before the start of the R & D technology, the execution cost, and the present value of the input cost after completion based on the expected technology life cycle. In this embodiment, the present value is converted based on the real interest rate.

The estimated benefit cost present value calculator 300 calculates the present value of the expected performance based on the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculator 130. Here, the expected benefit cost present value calculation unit 300 converts the expected performance into the present value by dividing the expected performance into the present value by dividing the expected performance into a continuous expected performance expected to be sustained and a one-time expected expected performance. Calculate the present value of benefits costs. In this case, the sustained predictive performance may include monetary and non-monetary forecasts, and the one-time forecast may include non-monetary forecasts.

Estimated profit present value calculation unit 140 calculates the expected input cost present value from the present value of the expected economic performance (continuous and one-off) of the R & D technology calculated by the estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit 300. The present value of the estimated total net profit for the R & D technology is calculated by subtracting the present value amount of the estimated input cost calculated by the wealth 200.

The expected return on investment calculation unit 160 divides the estimated total net present value calculated by the estimated net present value calculation unit 140 by the present value of the estimated input cost calculated by the estimated input cost present value calculation unit 200. Calculate the expected return on investment for development technology.

The higher the expected return on investment and expected benefit for the R & D technology calculated in this embodiment, the higher the investment performance for the R & D technology.

3 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the expected life cycle calculation unit 130 shown in FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the expected technology life cycle calculation unit 130 is a collection unit 131, extraction unit 132, determinant setting unit 133, analysis unit 134, derivation unit 135, and calculation And 136.

The collector 131 receives and collects data on a plurality of R & D technologies that have been performed in the past through the input unit 122. The collected data is stored in the R & D database 910. In this example, development data on 237 R & D technologies completed in the past by A construction company were collected.

The extractor 132 extracts each actual technology life cycle information from the R & D technologies collected by the collector 131.

The determinant setting unit 133 sets determinants influencing the technical life cycle of the R & D technologies extracted by the extractor 132. In this embodiment, the determinants may be divided into research areas, research periods, research costs, research purposes, usability, and usability evaluation as shown in Table 1.

number Potential Influence Factor Remarks One Research Field  Plant, civil engineering, architecture, environment, energy field 2 Research period  0.5 to 5 years or more 3 Research cost  500 million to 300 million won or more 4 Research Purpose  Product, construction method, specification, standard development and others 5 Utilization  Amount obtained through performance application 6 Usability assessment  Upper, middle, lower

Here, the research fields included five fields of plant, civil engineering, architecture, environment and energy, and all the research projects used for analysis fall into one of these fields. The construction industry aims at a wide variety of achievements, including buildings, bridges, plants and roads. Therefore, these achievements are categorized by sector and examined for impact on the technology life cycle. In the case of construction, for example, the outcomes will mainly include private homes, so construction trends or cycles of technology will prioritize public safety and will be shorter than in civil engineering or plants, which are expected to have a conservative tendency in technological change. Because it is expected, we assume the research field as an influence factor.

For research periods, the research projects are classified according to less than one year, one to two years, two to three years, three to four years, four to five years, and five or more years. This suggests that the longer the research period of R & D technology is, the longer the study is required, and that the influence factor is suggested based on the fact that the longer the application period or the technology life cycle, the longer the research period.

The research costs are classified into less than W500mn, from W500mn to W100mn, from W100mn to W150mn, W150mn to W200mn, W200mn to W250mn, W250mn to W300mn, and more than W300mn. Considering that the longer the research period in the R & D technology, the total research cost generally increases and the expected life cycle of the technology and the utilization period of the research results can be prolonged, the relevant influence factor was proposed.

 For research purposes, one of the performance indicators presented in the previous chapter is classified into product development, process development, specification development, standard development and others. In addition, we analyze changes in the technology life cycle. The results of the utilization were examined by the sum of the cost savings and the number of grants realized after the completion of the research project and the completion of the technical life cycle. The A company's R & D management system examines the results of the application of research results, cost reduction, and frequency of contributions every year after the research is completed. Therefore, based on this, the utilization results of completed research projects are classified according to the total amount and the correlation between them and the life cycle of technology is identified.

Similarly, in the case of research usability evaluation, the evaluation of the project is conducted by experts consisting of field practitioners and utilization managers in the relevant fields. Therefore, it is assumed that the study utilization evaluation divided into upper, middle and lower is considered as an influence factor of the technology life cycle, and the correlation is analyzed accordingly.

The analyzing unit 134 analyzes the correlation between the determinant set by the determinant setting unit 133 and the technology life cycle extracted by the extracting unit 132. Hereinafter, a process of analyzing the correlation between the determinant and the technical life cycle by the analysis unit 134 will be described in detail.

The analysis unit 134 shows a technology life cycle according to a research field including a construction field, an environment field, a civil field, a plant field, and an energy field as shown in FIG. 4. On the X-axis, architecture is divided into 1, environmental 2, civil engineering 3, plant 4 and energy 5. The Y-axis represents the technical life cycle of individual research projects for each research field. As shown in the graph, the distribution of the technology life cycle for each sector can be seen, and the life cycle of the development technology increases in the order of architecture, environment, civil engineering, plant, and energy.

Table 2 shows the numerical distribution of these distributions, and the average life expectancy or life cycle value is the lowest in architecture and the highest in energy.

Research Field Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation construct 60 2.10 3.70 2.87 0.49 Environment 35 3.00 4.60 3.97 0.43 Civil engineering 38 4.10 5.70 4.71 0.42 plant 93 5.20 6.80 5.98 0.48 energy 11 6.30 7.50 6.85 0.57

The analysis unit 134 shows a technology life cycle according to the study period as shown in FIG. 5. The study period is divided into less than 1 year, more than 1 year to less than 2 years, more than 2 years to less than 3 years, more than 3 years to less than 4 years, and more than 4 years, considering the appropriate number of variables. As a result, the research period of many research projects was distributed between 2 and 3 years, and projects with more than 4 years of study could be classified as long-term research projects. appear. In addition, as shown in Figure 5 it can be seen that the technology life cycle according to the study period does not exhibit a particular trend.

Table 3 below shows the results of statistical analysis on the number of research projects and the life cycle of technologies according to the research period. It can be seen that about half of the total research projects ranged from one to two years.

Although there is no particular trend, the technical life cycle of technology development with more than 2 years of research period is generally larger than that of short-term studies with less than 1 year of research period.

Research period Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation 0 to less than 1 year 27 2.60 6.40 4.89 1.22 1 to 2 years 127 2.10 7.50 4.50 1.40 2-3 years 55 2.10 7.50 4.98 1.43 3 to 4 years 16 2.10 6.80 5.04 1.51 More than 4 years 12 2.70 7.10 5.33 1.52

The analysis unit 134 shows a technology life cycle of the research cost as shown in FIG. 6. The research cost of 124 research projects, which is half of the total research projects, ranged between 100 million and 200 million won. As the cost of research increases, the life cycle of the technology is expected to increase, but as shown in this graph, there is no correlation. However, if the input research cost is large, the expected performance amount, such as cost reduction amount or donation period, tends to increase, but it does not show a clear correlation with the technology life cycle, which is the period of utilization of the technology.

Table 4 shows the statistical analysis of the technology life cycle according to the research cost. In other words, regardless of the research cost invested in most research projects, the average lifecycle and standard deviation of the technology life cycle are not significant.

Research cost Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation 0 to 100 million won 124 2.10 7.50 5.01 1.40 1-2 million won 56 2.10 6.80 4.39 1.48 2 ~ 300 million won 25 2.30 6.80 4.44 1.34 Less than 3 ~ 400 million 12 2.10 6.40 3.91 1.17 Over 400 million won 20 2.70 6.40 4.84 1.16

Next, the analysis unit 134 is classified into product development, process development, specification development, standard development, and others according to the purpose of research and development, and accordingly, the result of examining the technology life cycle is shown as shown in FIG. 7.

According to Figure 7, it can be seen that the change in the technology life cycle according to the process development, specification development, product development, standard development does not exhibit a particular trend. In addition, it can be seen that the technology life cycle is widely distributed according to the research purpose, and the difference is clearly shown in Table 5 below. In the case of research for public development, the standard deviation of the technology life cycle was 0.99 years, whereas the standard development was increased to 1.38 years. In the case of public law development, most of them focus on the site to which the results of the research are applied, whereas the standard development seems to reflect the tendency to continuously apply the development results rather than the specific site. .

Research Purpose Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation Method development 64 2.50 6.80 4.18 0.99 Development 23 2.70 7.10 3.50 1.02 Product Development 20 2.30 6.60 4.30 1.68 Standard development 111 2.10 7.50 5.36 1.38 Etc 19 2.90 6.30 4.78 1.09

The analysis unit 134 shows the relationship between the utilization performance and the technology life cycle as shown in FIG. 8. In this case, the utilization performance is calculated as the sum of the period contribution amount or cost reduction amount obtained by applying the result of the research. If the utilization performance is higher than the average, it is considered to have achieved a monetary performance that can be converted into a cycle or site cost reduction. Here, in case of R & D technology whose amount of contribution is less than the minimum value, various non-monetary achievements such as academic activities, public relations, and human resource development are not reflected.

Table 6 below shows the results of statistical analysis of the technology life cycle according to the monetary performance of R & D technologies. In this example, 61% of the total of 237 research projects realized more than 400 million won worth of research results.

Attribution Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation 0 to 100 million won 130 2.10 7.50 4.53 1.42 1-2 million won 29 2.60 7.50 4.72 1.55 2 ~ 300 million won 8 2.60 6.40 5.54 1.24 Less than 3 ~ 400 million 9 2.70 6.80 4.52 1.43 Over 400 million won 61 3.10 6.80 5.09 1.30

The analysis unit 134 shows the technology life cycle change according to the utilization evaluation by the expert group performed after the research of the R & D technology is completed as shown in FIG. 9. The usability assessment here reflects not only the case where the research output has already been used, but also the overall assessment, including the possibility of future use. As shown in the figure, in general, when the utilization evaluation degree is good, the technology life cycle also increases.

Table 7 below shows the statistical analysis of the technology life cycle according to the utilization evaluation. As shown in the table, when the evaluation of utilization is low, the average life cycle of the technology life cycle is 4.3 years, whereas in the case of good, the life cycle of the technology life cycle is 5.4 years, about 1 year.

Utilization Evaluation Number of assignments Technology Life Cycle (Year) Minimum value Maximum value medium Standard Deviation good 87 2.90 7.50 5.40 1.39 usually 39 2.60 6.10 4.47 1.26 lowness 111 2.10 7.10 4.30 1.29

As such, when looking at the graph showing the change of the technical life cycle according to the potential determinants expected to affect the technical life cycle, it is generally found that the distribution of the technical life cycle is not easy to identify clear trends or trends. Able to know. Therefore, there is a need for establishing a criterion for judging the presence or extent of an assumed determinant's impact on the life cycle of a technology.

Therefore, in the embodiment of the present invention, the analysis unit 134 performs statistical correlation analysis or Pearson correlation coefficient analysis in order to analyze the correlation between the technical life cycles for each determinant. The result is as shown in FIG.

As shown in FIG. 10 showing the correlation coefficient between the potential determinant and the technology life cycle, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the technology life cycle according to the research field divided into the construction, environment, civil engineering, plant, and energy fields is 0.942, which has the greatest effect. Able to know. Next, it can be seen that the correlation coefficient between technological life cycle changes according to the research purpose divided into construction method, specification, standard, product, and other development is 0.420. Although the correlation coefficient value is not significant between the study purpose and the technical life cycle, it is considered to be the second largest among the assumed influence factors after the research field.

However, the correlation coefficient between the life cycles of technology according to factors such as research period, research cost, utilization evaluation, and utilization evaluation was very small or negative, indicating that the causal relationship was very small or not at all. .

Therefore, according to the embodiment of the present invention, the technical life cycle is considered to have a significant relationship. Accordingly, the derivation unit 135 derives the multiple linear regression equations as a result of the technology life cycle, using the research field and the study purpose as variables, as shown in Equation 1 below.

: 기술생애주기 (년)here

: Technical life cycle (years)

: 연구분야 (건축=1, 환경=2, 토목=3, 플랜트=4, 에너지=5)

: Research field (Building = 1, Environment = 2, Civil Engineering = 3, Plant = 4, Energy = 5)

: 연구목적 (시방개발=1, 공법개발=2, 제품개발=3, 표준개발=4, 기타개발=5)

: Purpose of Research (Specific Development = 1, Method Development = 2, Product Development = 3, Standard Development = 4, Other Development = 5)

In this example, it is possible to estimate the coefficient of determination mainly used in statistical analysis to determine how well the estimated technical life cycle estimated by the regression equation corresponds to the actual life cycle of the survey, that is, the goodness of fit. have. As a result, the coefficient of determination between the estimated life cycle and the actual life cycle was 0.90. Therefore, there was a high correlation between the technology life cycle based on the proposed regression equation and the technology life cycle based on the results obtained from the use of 237 existing research projects. For reference, the coefficient of determination is equal to the square of the correlation coefficient representing the degree of correlation between the two variables, denoted by R ² (R-Squared). Generally, this decision coefficient of 1.0 means that the estimated value and the actual value match perfectly, and 0 means that the predicted value by the regression equation does not help.

In relation to the other constants of the regression equation proposed in this example, the standard deviation values for the constant value 2.1, the coefficient value -0.1 for the study field and the coefficient value 1.1 for the study purpose are 0.09, 0.03 and 0.03, respectively. I think this is low. The standard error for the estimated technology life cycle is 0.45, less than one year.

Therefore, in this embodiment, the calculation unit 136 calculates the technology life cycle by using the regression equation derived in this embodiment in predicting the performance of the R & D technology to be undertaken in the present embodiment, and the results according to the past statistical analysis. Calculate by

FIG. 11 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of an estimated input cost present value calculator 200 shown in FIG. 2 according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the estimated input cost present value calculation unit 200 is a pre-start input cost present value acquisition unit 222, the estimated execution cost present value calculation unit 224, after completion of the expected input cost present value calculation unit 226 ), And an adder 228.

Pre-initiation input cost The present value acquisition unit 222 is a cost before the start of research on the R & D technology, such as technology discovery and research planning for the R & D technology from the input cost database 900 Obtain information A.

Estimated execution cost The present value calculation unit 224 starts within the expected research period (years) and the research execution period of the R & D technology according to the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit 132. Calculate the expected execution cost (KRW) by year. The estimated execution cost present value calculation unit 224 calculates the present value of the expected execution cost as shown in Equation 2 below, through the extracted expected research execution period and the expected execution cost for each year.

Where k is a constant

: 예상 연구수행기간(년)

: Estimated period of research (years)

: 예상 연구기간 내 착수 후

년 경과년도의 예상 수행비용(원)

: After undertaken within the expected research period

Estimated Execution Cost (Year)

: 실질할인율(%)

: Real discount rate (%)

After completion of the expected input cost present value calculation unit 226 is a technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit 132 and the R & D technology calculated by the present value of the expected execution cost present value calculation unit 224. Based on the expected research period, the expected input cost (KRW) is calculated after completion of the research on the R & D technology. After completion of the estimated input cost present value calculation unit 226 calculates the present value of the estimated input costs after completion as shown in Equation 3 through the estimated input costs after the completion of the study calculated.

: 연구완료 후 예상 투입비용(원)here,

: Estimated input cost after completion of research (KRW)

: 실질할인율(%)

: Real discount rate (%)

: 예상 연구수행기간(년)

: Estimated period of research (years)

The adder 228 sums (A + B + C) the present value of pre-initiation input cost (A), the present execution cost present value (B), and the estimated input cost present value (C) after completion. To obtain the present value of the projected input costs for R & D technologies.

12 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit 300 shown in FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the estimated benefit cost present value calculator 300 includes a continuous expected benefit present value calculator 320, a one-time estimated benefit present value calculator 340, and an adder 360. .

Continuous expected benefit The present value calculator 320 extracts continuous performance information that is expected to have a continuity of performance from the monetary and non-monetary performance information among the predicted performance information stored in the predictive performance database 970, and provides each continuous performance. By using the technology life cycle and discount rate for each star, the expected benefit present value for continuous performance information is calculated as in Equation 4 below.

: 연구종료 후 경과년수(년)here,

: Years after completion of study (years)

: 기술생애주기(년)

: Technical life cycle (years)

: 실질할인율(%)

: Real discount rate (%)

: 연구수행기간(년)

: Period of research (years)

: 금액적 성과지표

의

년도의 경제적 성과(원)

Amount performance indicator

of

Economic Achievements in Years (KRW)

: 금액적 성과지표의 개수

: Number of quantitative performance indicators

: 비금액적 성과지표

의

년도의 경제적 성과(원/년)

: Non-monetary performance indicator

of

Economic Performance of the Year (Won / Year)

: 비금액적 성과지표의 개수

: Number of non-monetary performance indicators

Here, among the non-monetary performance indicators, the performance indicators corresponding to the continuous predicted performance are the number of site technical support, the number of applied sites, the number of design reflections, the number of PQ point reflections, and the life expectancy increase.

One-time estimated benefit The present value calculation unit 340 extracts one-time performance information having a one-off performance from the performance information stored in the performance database 970, using the technology life cycle and discount rate for each one-time performance information. As shown in Equation 5, the present value of expected benefits for the single-shot performance information is calculated.

: 연구종료 후 경과년수(년)here,

: Years after completion of study (years)

: 기술생애주기(년)

: Technical life cycle (years)

: 실질할인율(%)

: Real discount rate (%)

: 연구수행기간(년)

: Period of research (years)

: 비금액적 성과지표

의

년도의 경제적 성과(원/년)

: Non-monetary performance indicator

of

Economic Performance of the Year (Won / Year)

: 비금액적 성과지표의 개수

: Number of non-monetary performance indicators

Here, among the non-monetary performance indicators, the performance indicators corresponding to the one-time forecast performance are the number of papers published in Korea, the number of papers published overseas, the number of industrial property registrations, the number of new technologies, the number of external awards, the number of external public relations, and the number of internal standardizations.

The adder 360 sums the continuous estimated benefit present value (D) and the one-time estimated benefit present value (E) calculated as described above to obtain the estimated benefit cost present value for the R & D technology.

13 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of the continuous expected benefit calculator 320 shown in FIG. 12 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the sustained predictive benefit calculator 320 includes a sustained performance indicator extractor 322, a sustained predictive performance extractor 324, a sustained predictive performance classification unit 326 for each year, and a sustained predicted performance amount for each year. The calculator 328 is configured.

The continuous performance indicator extracting unit 322 extracts the continuous performance indicator from the 20 performance indicators stored in the performance indicator database 950. Here, the sustained performance indicators may include both monetary performance indicators and non-monetary performance indicators.

The continuous predictive performance extractor 324 extracts continuous predictive performance information from the predictive performance database 970 based on the extracted continuous performance indicators. In addition, the continuous predictive performance extractor 324 extracts the expected technical life cycle information for the research and development technology calculated based on Equation 1 by the expected technical life cycle calculator 130.

The yearly continuous predictive performance classification unit 326 classifies the extracted continuous predictive performance information by year based on the expected technical life cycle information.

The annual predictive performance amount calculation unit 328 calculates the present value of the monetary benefit of the continuous performance information through Equation 4 in response to the expected technical life cycle of the continuous performance information according to the actual discount rate.

On the other hand, in the present embodiment, the continuous performance indicator is composed of eight monetary performance indicators and 12 non-monetary performance indicators. First, the definition of each of the eight quantitative performance indicators and the method of converting the amounts are briefly explained.

In the present embodiment, like the performance indicators stored in the performance indicator database 950, the amount of performance indicators is eight, that is, cost reduction, construction period reduction amount, technical fee income amount, sales profit generation amount, defect prevention amount, civil prevention amount , Maintenance cost savings, and periodical donation amount.

Cost savings are direct construction cost savings due to the on-site application of R & D technology, cost savings for the number of employees reduced, and cost savings due to import substitution. The direct construction cost reduction due to the application of development technology is the difference between the projected construction cost when applying the existing technology and the final construction cost after applying the development technology. The cost savings for the number of workers reduced is the cost savings corresponding to the number of workers reduced by the application of development technology. The indicators of the number of workers reduced depend on which organization's staff is being reduced. Even if the contractor's workforce is reduced, subcontracting amounts are not reduced and there is no real monetary performance. Reductions can only be achieved when linked to cost reduction. The cost savings from import substitution are estimated by subtracting the costs of import substitution technology from the costs of imports.

The amount of reduction in construction period refers to the economic effect of the days of reduction in air caused by the technology developed through the project. The amount of reduction in construction period is the amount of indirect cost savings equivalent to the number of days of reduction in air in the year when the R & D technology is applied (indirect cost of the project, the number of days in which the construction period is shortened / whole air) and the opportunity cost. Can be calculated as the sum of the number of days of reduction of air ㅧ sales revenue / original air) and the increase or decrease of direct costs due to the application of air reduction technology.

The amount of royalty income refers to the income from the transfer of technology transfer of developed technology, and refers to direct technology fees received from small and medium-sized companies. Normally, large construction companies carry out R & D technical tasks jointly with SMEs and do not apply technology fees to the construction companies for their performance. When applied to other construction companies, the agreement is to receive a certain percentage of the sales as a technology fee.

The amount of sales profit generated is the amount of sales that corresponds to the amount of sales increased due to the application of R & D technology. If the sales increase, the contract cost may increase due to design changes.

The defect prevention amount refers to the effect of preventing defects caused by the application of development technology. Based on the statistical performance data of the defect management cost, calculate the amount of reduced defect cost.

The amount of civil complaint prevention means the effect of preventing civil complaints from the application of development technology. For example, in the case of applying the noise reduction method, the cost of handling civil complaints and the increase in the cost of applying the method will be calculated.

Maintenance cost reduction means the reduction of maintenance cost due to the application of development technology. The savings in maintenance costs should only be calculated if they are linked to the profitability of the construction company. For example, technologies that reduce the cost of managing apartments have no financial benefit to construction firms. Such cases should be measured by performance indicators such as the number of standardizations in the company, the amount of donations, and the number of design reflections.

The period donation amount represents the expected profit from the application of development technology. After the project is completed, the contribution amount should be converted into a performance indicator of the revenue generation amount.

Hereinafter, the definition of each of the twelve non-monetary performance indicators according to the present embodiment and a method for converting amounts will be briefly described. In the present embodiment, 12 non-monetary performance indicators include the expected life expectancy, the number of articles published in Korea, the number of articles published in foreign countries, the number of registered industrial property rights, the number of new technologies, the number of field technical support, the number of applied sites, the number of external awards, and the external The number of public relations, in-house standardization, design reflection, and PQ (Pre-Qualification) are reflected.

In this example, a survey was conducted on 15 experts in each research field of architecture, civil engineering, plant, and environment to derive weights among non-monetary performance indicators that cannot be converted arithmetically. The content of the survey is a weighted comparison of performance areas and non-monetary performance indicators and the amount of each non-monetary performance indicator unit.

In the case of using the general AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique, the analysis results of the weights for the non-monetary performance indicators of this embodiment are shown in Table 8.

Classification Weight (A) Performance indicator Weight (B) Weight (C) = A × B productivity 0.08 Life expectancy 1.00 0.08 Knowledge accumulation 0.21 Domestic Paper Presentation 0.05 0.01 Overseas Paper Presentations 0.10 0.02 Industrial Property Registration 0.15 0.03 New technology cases 0.70 0.15 Practical application 0.25 Field Technical Support Cases 0.12 0.03 Field of application 0.15 0.04 Number of design reflections 0.25 0.06 Number of PQ Points Reflected 0.48 0.12 Foreign PR 0.08 Number of external awards 0.27 0.02 External Public Relations 0.73 0.06 standardization 0.38 In-house standardization 1.00 0.38

On the other hand, in the present embodiment, the results of the evaluation of the amount conversion of the non-monetary performance indicators to 15 experts to convert the amount of each non-monetary performance indicator by unit are shown in Table 9. Here, the weighting value among the items is a weight with respect to the survey average.

That is, as shown in the right column of Table 2, it can be seen that the amount weights obtained by the non-monetary performance indicators from the survey do not coincide with the amount weights obtained through the AHP.

In millions of Korean won division A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O Average Price
weight AHP
weight Life expectancy
Years of increase
(A) 164 161.5 131 145.5 97.5 119 92.5 87 94 123 130.5 93.5 114.5 131.5 115 120 0.08 0.08 Domestic paper
Presentation
(B) 5.5 1.5 2.25 3.25 2.5 3.25 1.25 1.25 0.75 2.5 3.25 2.5 3 2 3 2.5 0.00 0.01 Foreign Papers
Presentation
(C) 21 12.5 17.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 6 6.5 10 12.5 17.5 11.5 10 11.5 13.5 12.5 0.01 0.02 Industrial property rights
Number of registration
(D) 30 25 37.5 22.5 22.5 15 10 10 12.5 20 17.5 17.5 22.5 15 22.5 20 0.01 0.03 New technology cases
(E) 500 400 350 500 400 600 250 150 325 425 450 400 475 500 37.5 406.7 0.28 0.15 Field technology
Number of support
(F) 9 7 7 7 6.5 5 3.5 3.5 3.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 6.5 7 7 6 0.00 0.03 Field of application
(G) 50 50 40 45 30 45 30 40 25 55 40 30 40 45 35 40 0.03 0.04 Design reflection
Number
(H) 50 32.5 35 37.5 47.5 35 30 20 20 42.5 30 35 42.5 35 32.5 35 0.02 0.06 PQ Value
Reflection
(I) 700 550 450 600 500 600 300 300 350 525 600 450 575 500 500 500 0.34 0.12 Foreign Awards
Number
(J) 100 60 80 75 70 80 30 40 40 80 60 90 85 75 85 70 0.05 0.02 Foreign PR
Number
(K) 135 95 100 125 100 115 85 60 85 106.5 105 115 115 110 115 104.4 0.07 0.06 In-house standardization
Number
(L) 205 140 190 150 150 140 125 115 125 145 140 160 140 165 155 150 0.10 0.38 sub Total 1.00 1.00

For example, the average weight of the survey's average life expectancy was 0.08, which was in agreement with the AHP weight, but in the number of domestic papers, the average survey weight was 0.00 and the AHP weight was 0.01. Despite the same expert evaluations, the problem is that AHP weights and survey weights do not match.

Therefore, in order to convert the amount of non-monetary performance indicators, it is required to agree with the AHP weighting as an objective measure to secure the reliability of the average value weight. In order to be consistent with the AHP weighting result and the value conversion evaluation result of the non-monetary performance indicator, the average amount of the survey is converted according to the AHP weight as shown in Table 3. That is, in Table 10, the average value is calculated by converting the AHP weights based on the average amount of each non-monetary performance indicator. For example, the estimated life expectancy is KRW 120 million, and the estimated life expectancy is 0.08 based on the weight of the AHP analysis, and the weight of the domestic publications is 0.01. It is 15 million won, equivalent to 1/8 of the amount.

In millions of Korean won division prediction
life span
increase
Years domestic
Paper
Announcement
Number Oversea
Paper
Announcement
Number industry
Property rights
Enrollment
Number New technology
Number Scene
Technology
support
Number apply
Scene
Number design
reflection
Number PQ
Store
reflection
Number Foreign
prize
Number Foreign
promotion
Number man
standardization
Number Life expectancy 120 15 30 45 225 45 60 90 180 30 90 570 Domestic Paper Presentation 20 2.5 5.0 7.5 37.5 7.5 10 15 30 5 15 95 Overseas Paper Presentations 50 6.25 12.5 18.8 93.8 18.8 25 37.5 75 12.5 37.5 237.5 Industrial Property Registration 53.3 6.7 13.3 20 100 20 26.7 40 80 13.3 40 253.3 New technology cases 216.9 27.1 54.2 81.3 406.7 81.3 108.5 162.7 325.4 54.2 162.7 1030.3 Field Technical Support Cases 16 2 4 6 30 6 8 12 24 4 12 76 Field of application 80 10 20 30 150 30 40 60 120 20 60 380 Number of design reflections 46.7 5.8 11.7 17.5 87.5 17.5 23.3 35 70 11.7 35 221.7 Number of PQ Points Reflected 333.3 41.7 833 125 625 125 166.7 250 500 83.3 250 1583.3 Number of external awards 280 35 70 105 525 105 140 210 420 70 210 1330 External Public Relations 139.2 17.4 34.8 52.2 261 52.2 69.6 104.4 208.8 34.8 104.4 661.2 In-house standardization 31.6 3.9 7.9 11.8 59.2 11.8 15.8 23.7 47.4 7.9 23.7 150 Average 115.6 14.4 28.9 43.3 216.7 43.3 57.8 86.7 173.4 28.9 86.7 549 Amount weight
(AHP weighting) 0.08
(0.08) 0.01
(0.01) 0.02
(0.02) 0.03
(0.03) 0.15
(0.15) 0.03
(0.03) 0.04
(0.04) 0.06
(0.06) 0.12
(0.12) 0.02
(0.02) 0.06
(0.06) 0.38
(0.38)

By deriving the valuation for each non-quantitative performance indicator in this way, and then deriving the average value for each non-quantitative performance indicator, it can be seen that the results are consistent with the AHP weighting values as shown in the bottom of Table 3.

Therefore, the results of the final conversion of the valuation amount per non-quantitative performance indicator are summarized in Table 11.

                                                       In millions of Korean won division prediction
life span
increase
Years domestic
Paper
Announcement
Number Oversea
Paper
Announcement
Number industry
Property rights
Enrollment
Number New technology
Number Scene
Technology
support
Number apply
Number of sites design
reflection
Number PQ
Store
reflection
Number Foreign
prize
Number Foreign
promotion
Number man
standardization
Number Conversion 115.6 14.4 28.9 43.3 216.7 43.3 57.8 86.7 173.4 28.9 86.7 549

14 is a block diagram illustrating a detailed configuration of the one-time expected benefit calculator 340 shown in FIG. 12 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown, the one-time forecast benefit calculation unit 340 is a one-time performance indicator extraction unit 342, a one-time forecast performance extractor 344, a yearly forecast performance classification unit 346, and by year It includes a one-time forecast and the amount calculation unit 348.

The one-time predictive performance index extractor 342 extracts one-time performance indicators from the 20 performance indicators stored in the performance indicator database 950. In this embodiment, the one-time performance indicators include non-monetary performance indicators.

The one-time predictive outcome extractor 344 extracts one-time predictive outcome information from the predictive outcome database 970 based on the extracted one-time outcome index. In addition, the one-time predictive outcome extractor 344 extracts the technology life cycle information calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculator 130 from the expected technology life cycle database 930 with respect to the extracted single-time predictive performance information.

The one-time forecasting performance classification unit 346 classifies the extracted one-time forecasting performance information by year based on the expected technical life cycle information.

The one-time forecasting performance amount calculation unit 348 calculates the present value of the monetary benefit through the one-time forecasting performance information through Equation 5 according to the actual discount rate corresponding to the expected technical life cycle of the one-time forecasting performance information. do.

Accordingly, the adding unit 360 of FIG. 12 quantifies the present value of the estimated benefit cost for the R & D technology by summing the calculated amount of the sustained expected performance and the amount of the one-time expected outcome.

Using the estimated present input cost and expected benefit cost present value, the estimated profit present value calculation unit 140 presents the estimated input cost present value of the expected benefit cost for the R & D technology as shown in Equation 6 below. Subtract the value to calculate the expected net present value of R & D technology.

The expected return on investment calculation unit 160 calculates the expected return on investment for research and development technology by dividing the estimated net present value calculated by the estimated net present value calculating unit 140 by the estimated input cost present value as shown in Equation 7 below. do.

In the foregoing, certain preferred embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described. However, it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment and that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the present invention as defined in the appended claims. It will be possible. Accordingly, the true scope of the present invention should be determined only by the appended claims.

Claims (17)

An expected technology life cycle calculation unit that calculates a statistical expected technology life cycle for the R & D technology currently being researched from a determinant for determining a technology life cycle of a plurality of previously completed R & D technologies;
An estimated input cost present value calculating unit configured to calculate a present value of an estimated cost to be input to the R & D technology based on the estimated technical life cycle calculated;
An estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit that calculates a present value of benefit costs for performance expected to be obtained by the research and development technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated; And
An estimated net profit present value calculation unit that calculates a present value of an estimated total net profit for the R & D technology by subtracting the present input cost present value from the projected benefit cost present value for the R & D technology;
The estimated benefit cost present value calculation unit,
A continuous expected benefit present value calculation unit configured to calculate an expected benefit present value for predicted continuous performance information of the R & D technology based on the calculated expected technology life cycle of the R & D technology;
A one-time estimated benefit present value calculation unit that calculates an expected benefit present value for predicted one-time performance information of the R & D technology based on the calculated expected technology life cycle of the R & D technology; And
And a summation unit that obtains the present value of the estimated benefit cost for the R & D technology by adding the calculated presently expected present benefit value for the R & D technology and the present value of the one-time expected benefit. R & D technology predictive evaluation system.
The method of claim 1,
The expected technology life cycle calculation unit,
A collecting unit which receives and collects data on the plurality of terminated R & D technologies;
An extraction unit for extracting each actual technology life cycle information from data on the R & D technologies collected by the collection unit;
A determinant setting unit for setting the determinant for determining a technology life cycle of the R & D technologies extracted by the extracting unit;
An analyzer for analyzing a correlation between the determinant set by the determinant setting unit and the technology life cycle extracted by the extracting unit;
A derivation unit for deriving a multiple linear regression equation having the determinant as a variable and the technical life cycle as a result; And
And a calculation unit for calculating a statistically expected technical life cycle of the R & D technology currently under study based on the multiple linear regression equations.
The method of claim 1,
The determinant may include at least one of a research field, a research period, a research cost, a research purpose, an applicability, and an applicability of the research and development technology.
The method of claim 2,
The multiple linear regression equation,

Is,
here

: Technical life cycle (years),

: Research field among determinants (building = 1, environment = 2, civil engineering = 3, plant = 4, energy = 5), and

: R & D technology predictive evaluation system, characterized by research purpose (development development = 1, process development = 2, product development = 3, standard development = 4, other development = 5) among determinants.
The method of claim 1,
The estimated input cost present value calculation unit,
A pre-initiation cost input value acquisition unit for acquiring a present value of the cost inputted to the research and development technology before the start of research;
According to the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit, an expected performance cost present value for calculating an expected research performance period and an expected performance cost for each year after the start of the research development period. A calculator;
The research on the R & D technology based on the technology life cycle of the R & D technology calculated by the expected technology life cycle calculation unit and the expected research performance period of the R & D technology calculated by the present value calculation unit A project value input unit for calculating the estimated input cost after completion of calculating the expected input cost after completion; And
A summation unit that adds the calculated present value of pre-initiation input cost, the present value of the expected execution cost, and the present value of the estimated input cost after completion, to obtain a present value of the estimated input cost for the R & D technology; R & D technology predictive evaluation system, characterized in that the configuration.
6. The method of claim 5,
The estimated execution cost present value calculation unit, "

", Where k is a constant,

Expected period of study (years),

: After undertaken within the expected research period

Estimated performance in years (KRW),

: R & D technology predictive evaluation system, characterized by calculating the present value of the expected execution cost for the R & D technology through a real discount rate (%).
6. The method of claim 5,
After the expected completion of the input cost present value calculation unit,

", here,

: Estimated input cost after completion of research (KRW),

: Real discount rate (%),

: A research and development technology predictive evaluation system, characterized by calculating the present value of the input cost after completion of the expected research and development technology through the expected research execution period (years).
delete The method of claim 1,
The continuous expected benefit present value calculation unit,
Equation "

",
here,

: Number of years since the end of the study,

: Technical life cycle (years),

: Real discount rate (%),

: Period of study (years),

Amount performance indicator

of

Economic performance in fiscal year (won),

= Number of quantitative performance indicators,

: Non-monetary performance indicator

of

Economic performance in fiscal year (won / year),

: A research and development technology prediction evaluation system, characterized by calculating the present value of the continuous expected benefit of the research and development technology through the number of non-monetary performance indicators.
The method of claim 1,
The one-time estimated benefit present value calculation unit,
Equation "

",
here,

: Number of years since the end of the study,

: Technical life cycle (years),

: Real discount rate (%),

: Period of study (years),

: Non-monetary performance indicator

of

Economic performance in fiscal year (won / year),

: A research and development technology prediction evaluation system, characterized by calculating the present value of the one-time expected benefit of the research and development technology through the number of non-monetary performance indicators.
The method of claim 1,
The continuous expected benefit present value calculation unit,
A continuous performance indicator extracting unit for extracting a continuous performance indicator from a plurality of indicators set as the performance indicators of the R & D technology;
A continuous predictive outcome extracting unit configured to extract predicted continuous predictive outcome information of the research and development technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated for the research and development technology in response to the extracted continuous performance indicators;
A yearly continuous predictive performance classification unit for classifying the continuous predictive performance information extracted based on the expected technical life cycle for each year; And
The continuous predictive performance information, which is classified by year, the annual predictive performance and amount calculation unit for calculating the present value of the monetary benefit of the continuous predictive performance information based on the technical life cycle and the discount rate; R & D technology predictive evaluation system.
12. The method of claim 11,
The continuous performance indicators R & D technology predictive evaluation system, characterized in that it comprises a monetary performance indicator and a non-monetary performance indicator.
The method of claim 1,
The one-time estimated benefit present value calculation unit,
A one-time performance index extraction unit for extracting one-time performance indicators from a plurality of indicators set as the performance indicators of the R & D technology;
A one-time prediction result extracting unit that extracts expected one-time prediction performance information of the R & D technology based on the expected technology life cycle calculated for the R & D technology, in response to the extracted one-time performance indicator;
A single-year forecasting performance classification unit for classifying the one-time forecasting performance information extracted based on the expected technology life cycle by year; And
The one-time one-time forecasting and amount calculation unit for calculating the one-time forecasting performance information classified by the year, the present value of the value of the benefits of the one-time forecasting performance based on the technical life cycle and the discount rate; R & D technology predictive evaluation system, characterized in that the configuration.
The method of claim 13,
The one-time performance indicators R & D technology predictive evaluation system characterized in that it comprises a non-monetary performance indicators.
13. The method of claim 12,
The amount of performance indicators, characterized in that it comprises at least one of cost savings, construction period reduction amount, technology fee income amount, sales profit creation amount, defect prevention amount, civil prevention amount, maintenance cost reduction amount, and period contribution amount R & D technology predictive evaluation system.
The method according to claim 12 or 14,
The non-monetary performance indicators include the expected life expectancy, the number of articles published in Korea, the number of articles published in foreign countries, the number of articles published in foreign countries, the number of registered industrial property rights, the number of new technologies, the number of field technical support, the number of applied sites, the number of external awards, the number of external public relations, and the company's standardization. A research and development technology prediction evaluation system, characterized in that it includes at least one of the number, the number of design reflections, and the number of points reflecting the pre-qualification (PQ).
The method of claim 1,
Expected investment that calculates the expected return on investment for the R & D technology by dividing the estimated total profit present value calculated by the estimated present value calculating unit by the present value of the estimated input cost calculated by the estimated input cost present value calculating unit. Research and development technology prediction evaluation system further comprising; yield calculation unit.

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