KR101097947B1 - Heavy rain prediction method and system thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE: Heavy rain predicting method and system are provided to precisely confirm the possibility of localized heavy rain and to rapidly respond to the heavy rain. CONSTITUTION: A method for predicting heavy rain includes the following: A heavy rain predicting system collecting local weather information(S100). The collected weather information is analyzed based on heavy rain models, and meteorological phenomena are verified. The heavy rain models are defined in n by a reference containing lever level jet and a thickness form. Based on the collected meteorological phenomena and pre-saved geographical information, a heavy rain section is set(S300).

Description

Heavy rain prediction method and system {HEAVY RAIN PREDICTION METHOD AND SYSTEM THEREOF}

The present invention relates to a heavy rain prediction method and system, in particular, to classify the type of heavy rain according to the meteorological factors that have a significant influence on the occurrence of heavy rain in the weather information to predict the possibility of heavy rain to more precisely derive the region and the possibility of heavy rain occurrence It relates to a heavy rain prediction method and system.

In recent years, the frequency of heavy rain has increased rapidly.

Heavy rains with daily rainfall above 80mm are concentrated in July (8.1 days, 29.1%) and August (7.9 days, 28.6%). In 1990, the frequency of heavy rains over the last 20 years was compared to the previous period. The frequency of heavy rains of more than 80 mm in 12 hours increased by only 25%, while the frequency of heavy rains of more than 150 mm in 12 hours increased by 60%, indicating a relatively steep increase.

In addition, summer heavy rains are occurring more frequently in the last decade (2001-2010) of the past 30 years (1981-2010), and according to the IPCC Fourth Report, climate change prediction models (air-ocean combined large cycle models) In the latter part of the 21st century, summer precipitation increases by 10-20% compared to the present, as the difference between continental and ocean surface temperatures increases and water vapor inflow increases from the lower layer in the late 21st century. Cumulus convection precipitation, which can cause dominant precipitation, is expected to increase by more than 40%.

The occurrence of such heavy rains may result in flooding of rivers, loss of structures, etc., if not prepared, which may have a huge negative impact on people's lives and the economy, depending on the magnitude of the damage.

Therefore, there is a need for a sophisticated rainfall prediction method and system that can reduce the magnitude of damage through the prediction by predicting the possibility of heavy rainfall and precipitation.

However, the conventional heavy rain prediction method does not have high reliability of the prediction result by using a heavy rain prediction model mainly dependent on the intuition of an experienced forecaster or based on past rainfall.

In other words, in the case of relying on the intuition of the forecaster as in the prior art, it is difficult to present a formal result and thus an objective methodology cannot be derived.

In addition, in the case of the rainfall-based heavy rain prediction model, precise rainfall prediction is virtually difficult because it does not consider the atmospheric structure of the heavy rain, and local rainfall that has a large amount of precipitation variation and occurs suddenly without considering geographic information such as geographic characteristics. Prediction was difficult.

In addition, in the case of rainfall-based heavy rain forecasting model, the forecaster's dependence on the model's prediction result increased, making it difficult to cope with changes in various situations.

In addition, the conventional heavy rain prediction system does not provide a detailed analysis of the heavy rain prediction results, so it is not easy for the forecaster to easily and intuitively grasp the current situation and construct a forecast scenario that can cope with various situations.

Korea Patent Registration No. 10-0989845

An object of the present invention for improving the above-described problems is to classify the type of rain using the air structure, such as low-rise jet and post-layer classification type, and then predicts the possibility of heavy rain to predict the chance of heavy rain more precisely and To provide a system.

Another object of the present invention for improving the above-mentioned problems is to further increase the prediction probability of local heavy rain by deriving the possibility of heavy rain based on the rainfall type model that analyzes the topographical characteristics and the correlation between the historical rainfall pattern and the atmospheric structure. To provide a heavy rain prediction method and system.

Another object of the present invention for improving the above-mentioned problems is to provide a user with a visual information of various heavy rain-related information such as detailed forecast precipitation, historical case ranking and significant precipitation probability to configure the user heavy rain prediction scenario It is to provide a method and system for predicting heavy rain.

The heavy rain prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention for achieving the above object is a heavy rain prediction method of the heavy rain prediction system, the heavy rain prediction system collecting the weather information by region of the heavy rain prediction system, the heavy rain prediction system Determining the weather belonging to one of the n heavy rain types by analyzing the collected meteorological information according to the heavy rain type model defined by the n including the lower jet and the layer classification type, and the heavy rain prediction system collects the heavy rain. And using the weather information and the pre-stored geographic information to correspond to the points satisfying the heavy rain zone conditions according to the heavy rain type determined in the heavy rain type determination step to set the heavy rain zone.

In the heavy rain type determination step, the heavy rain type model is preferably defined by a criterion including a layered expansion type of 1000 hpa to 500 hpa and a lower jet of 850 hpa and a wind speed of 25 knots or more.

The heavy rain type determination step may be a step of determining the heavy rain type as the lower jet front type when the lower jet is the front type and the post-layer classification type is the post-layer extended type.

Alternatively, the heavy rain type determination step may be a step of determining the heavy rain type as a lower jet rear type when the lower jet is a rear type and the post-layer classification type is a post-floor extended type.

Alternatively, the heavy rain type determination step may be a step of determining the heavy rain type as a typhoon direct impact type when the lower layer jet is present and the post-layer classification type is not the post-layer extended type.

Alternatively, the heavy rain type determination step may be a step of determining the heavy rain type as the typhoon front convergence type when the lower layer jet does not exist and the post-layer classification type is not the post-layer extended type.

Alternatively, the heavy rain type determination step may be a step of determining the heavy rain type as a tropical low pressure part type when the lower layer jet does not exist and the post-layer classification type is post-layer extended type.

Alternatively, in the heavy rain type determination step, when the developed ground cyclones having upper cores defined by a predetermined criterion are located on the east sea, and the seasonal and topographical characteristics satisfy the predetermined conditions, the heavy rain type is determined as the east coast heavy rain type. It may be a step.

On the other hand, the heavy rain type determination step finds the maximum wind speed point among the wind speed of 25 knots or more and the air instability index 30 or more at 850 hpa altitude of the lower jet, the wind direction average, the average wind speed, the temperature within the predetermined range of the maximum wind speed point If the set criteria are satisfied, it is determined to be the front type of the lower jet. In this case, the heavy rain zone setting step moves in a predetermined direction along the wireline starting from the center point and the center point of the lower jet, so that the wind speed satisfies the preset standard. The heavy rain is an internal region that connects the first point that changes and the second point that moves in a direction different from the direction starting from the first point, and meets an air instability index of 30 or less, or the wind direction changes to satisfy a predetermined criterion. Setting may be a zone.

Alternatively, in the heavy rain type determination step, when there is a northwest wind in a predetermined range in the north-south direction from a center point of the lower jet to a predetermined hardness point in the west direction, the heavy rain zone is determined as the rear jet type. Searching southward to the preset latitude point while moving westward from the center point of the lower jet to the longitude point, find the southwest wind, the air instability index of 30 or more, and the wind speed of 15 knots or more, and select the lowest latitude point. The center point, the first point, the second point, and the third point, wherein the first point, the point of the preset position westward from the first point is the second point, and the point of the preset position northward from the center point is the third point. It may be a step of setting the inner region connecting the to the heavy rain zone.

Alternatively, the heavy rain type determination step is to determine the typhoon front convergence type when the average air pressure in the preset area around the East Sea of China, which is preset at a latitude and longitude of a predetermined range, is below a predetermined standard. The heavy rain zone setting step may include setting the northernmost region as the heavy rain zone in which the air instability index belongs to a predetermined standard around the Korean Peninsula and where wind direction, wind speed, equivalent temperature, and expected precipitation satisfy the predetermined standard. .

Heavy rain prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention for achieving the above object is a weather information collection unit for collecting the weather information by region, §§ Lee information unit, lower layer jet and to manage the geographic information corresponding to the collected weather information by region A heavy rain type model unit that manages a heavy rain type model defined by a criterion including a layered classification type, and a heavy rain that determines the weather belonging to one of the n heavy rain types according to the heavy rain type model by analyzing the collected weather information. A type determining unit and a heavy rain area setting unit for setting a heavy rain area by using the collected weather information and the geographic information to correspond to the points satisfying the heavy rain area conditions according to the type of heavy rain.

The heavy rain prediction system may further include a display unit configured to display the set heavy rain area in different colors according to a predetermined criterion or to automatically display an area where the heavy rain warning standard can be reached.

Heavy rain prediction method and system according to an embodiment of the present invention is to classify the type of heavy rain by using the air structure such as low-rise jet and after-layer classification type to predict the possibility of heavy rain to more accurately present the likelihood of heavy rain to quickly predict the heavy rain. There is a coping effect.

Heavy rain prediction method and system according to an embodiment of the present invention to further increase the prediction probability of the local heavy rain by deriving the possibility of heavy rain based on the rainfall type model that analyzes the topographical characteristics and the correlation between the historical rainfall pattern and atmospheric structure Therefore, it is possible to precisely present the possibility of local heavy rain.

Heavy rain prediction method and system according to an embodiment of the present invention can provide a user with a variety of heavy rain-related information, such as detailed forecast precipitation, historical case ranking and significant precipitation probability to configure the user to predict the heavy rain prediction scenario according to the current situation By doing so, it is possible to recognize the possibility of heavy rain in advance and cope with it.

1 is a flowchart of a heavy rain prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 to 5 are flowcharts of a heavy rain type determination step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
6 is a block diagram of a heavy rain prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 7 is a schematic view of the lower jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 8 is an illustration of a downpour jet of the lower floor jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 9 is a schematic view of the rear jet back type according to an embodiment of the present invention.
10 is a view illustrating a downpour jet of the lower jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention.
11 is a schematic diagram of a typhoon front convergence type according to an embodiment of the present invention.
12 is an exemplary diagram of a heavy rain prediction result verification according to an embodiment of the present invention.
13 to 14 are screen diagrams of a heavy rain prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The present invention as described above will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

1 is a flowchart of a heavy rain prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention, in the heavy rain prediction method, the heavy rain prediction system collects regional weather information (S100), and the heavy rain prediction system is a lower jet and a layered classification. Determining the weather belonging to one of the n heavy rain types by analyzing the collected weather information according to the heavy rain type model defined by the number n (S200) and the heavy rain prediction system; And a step of setting a heavy rain area (S300) by matching points satisfying heavy rain area conditions according to the heavy rain type determined in the heavy rain type determination step (S200) using previously stored geographic information.

In this case, the heavy rain prediction method may further include displaying the heavy rain type or heavy rain area (S400).

The heavy rain prediction method is a heavy rain prediction method of a heavy rain prediction system. The heavy rain prediction system detects a heavy rain area by applying an algorithm derived from the heavy rain type model to a numerical model predictor considering the weather information and geographic information. Pre-heavy rain monitoring and forecasting system that informs the possibility of heavy rain in a district.

The heavy rain type model is made based on an important weather element that makes heavy rain, such as an air structure, and in the present invention, as an important factor of the heavy rain type model, a lower level jet (LLJ) and an upper level jet (ULJ) are used. ) And lower jet coupling, K-index (KI), vertical wind shear and warm currents.

The lower-layer jet is a factor that causes heavy rain by moving a large amount of water vapor and high-temperature energy at high latitudes at low latitudes. In the United States, heavy convection systems and in East Asia transport water vapor and heat in warm zones of rainy season, causing frequent heavy rainfall. .

The lower jet has a correlation with the wind speed in proportion to the rainfall intensity. In particular, the lower jet in the East Asian region is accompanied by the low pressure developed in the mid-scale system in relation to the summer monsoon and frequently appears at a higher altitude than the lower jet in North America.

On the other hand, the coupling between the upper jet and the lower jet is the form of the upper jet and the lower jet intersect, when the divergent region of the upper jet inlet is located above the lower jet, a large amount of water vapor and high temperature energy Rapid ascending movement causes heavy rain.

The atmospheric instability index is defined by the following equation.

In Equation 1, the first term means the temperature difference between the lower layer and the middle layer, D of the second term means the amount of water vapor as the dew point temperature, and the third term means the wet water of 700 hPa.

Therefore, the larger the temperature difference between 850hPa and 500hPa, the greater the amount of water vapor of 850hPa, and the smaller the dew point deviation at 700hPa, the larger the value.

Using the air instability index, it is easy to identify the amount of water vapor in the lower atmosphere and the air instability, and it is very advantageous to predict the occurrence of heavy rain because it is related to the characteristics of heavy rain caused by current instability and continuous high energy inflow, not surface heating. .

For example, when the value of the atmospheric instability index is large, heavy rain occurs where the low-pressure air stream in the north and the air stream in the southwest wind converge.

On the other hand, in relation to the prediction of convective heavy rain, it is possible to derive a correlation between the region where medium-scale convective heavy rain occurs and 1000-500 hPa thickness diffluence. explain the warming and warm currents.

For example, in the Korean peninsula, which is located on the continent, this organization of air structure can be seen better.

In other words, if the low pressure part is located in China and the high pressure part is located in the sea above the ground and the lower layer, and the air pressure valley is located north of the Korean peninsula at 500 hPa, it appears to be expanded in the thickness of 1000-500 hPa.

This pattern is the south wind in the lower layer, the mid-air atmosphere is a wind direction of the western wind type is the pattern of interlaminar vertical wind shear and warm air flow, the convection zone that can generate heavy rain is located in the expanded form.

In the present invention, it is possible to predict the occurrence of heavy rain by using a heavy rain prediction model based on the factors consisting of the important weather factors, the classification of the heavy rain prediction model is shown in Table 1 below.

Heavy rain type model

Lower Floor Jet
Front type
Lower Floor Jet
Rear type
Typhoon front
Convergence type
Tropical low pressure part
type
Typhoon direct
Impact type 850hpa Underfloor Jet
(Only south wind)
Applicable)
Front
back side
-
-
existence 1000-500hpa
Post Layer Expansion
existence
existence
-
existence
-

The type of heavy rain type is 850 hPa, the presence of lower jets with wind speeds of 25 knots or higher, and the lower jet front type, lower jet rear type, typhoon front convergence type, tropical low pressure part type, and typhoon direct, depending on the type of sub-layer classification of 1000-500 hPa. It is classified into five types, including impact type, and includes the east coast heavy rain type as heavy rain except summer.

With the presence of lower jets, heavy rains in the form of 1000-500 hPa post-layer expansion can be categorized as front jet types and rear jet types as indicated, indicating that the location of the heavy rain is forward or backward relative to the maximum wind speed of the lower jet. This is because the diary and the type differ depending on the cognition.

2 to 5 are flowcharts of a heavy rain type determination step (S200) according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 2, in the heavy rain type determination step (S200), the heavy rain type model is preferably defined by a criterion including a layered expansion type of 1000 hpa to 500 hpa and a lower jet of 850 hpa and a wind speed of 25 knots or more as described above.

Heavy rain types with lower jets can be classified into lower jet front type, rear type and typhoon direct impact type.

2 and 3, the heavy rain type determination step (S200) is the front jet type (S210, S220) according to the preset lower jet, and the post-floor classification type is extended according to the preset criterion (S221). If S222, it is preferable to include the step (S223) to determine the type of heavy rain down jet.

The bottom jet front type occupies the most occurrence rate among heavy rain generation types, and is generally a type of a strong bottom jet which is formed between a stagnant front line and a medium low pressure located on the west sea and a high pressure in the North Pacific.

In addition, referring to Figures 2 and 4, the heavy rain type determination step (S200) is the rear jet type (S210, S230) according to a predetermined criterion, the post-layer classification type is a post-floor extended type according to a preset criterion If (S240, S241) it is preferable to include the step (S242) to determine the type of heavy rain to the rear jet.

The lower jet type rear type is a type in which a wet southwest wind meets a dry air stream in the north at the edge of the North Pacific high pressure when a low pressure is located in the north or east of the Korean peninsula, and a narrow band-like heavy rain occurs.

Referring to FIG. 2 again, in the case of the heavy rain type determination step (S200), when the lower jet is present (S210) and the post-floor classification type is not the post-floor expansion type according to a preset criterion, the heavy rain type is determined as a typhoon direct impact type. It is preferable to include the step (S231, S232).

The typhoon direct impact type is a type in which heavy rain occurs in the north and right strong wind zones of the typhoon.

On the other hand, heavy rain type without lower jet may be classified into tropical low pressure part type and typhoon front convergence type.

2 and 5, if the heavy rain type determination step (S200) does not include the lower jet (S211) and the post-layer classification type is post-floor expansion type (S212) according to a preset criterion, the heavy rain type may be tropical. It is preferable to include the step (S213) to determine the low pressure portion type.

The tropical low pressure type forms a heavy rain zone to the north and right of the tropical low pressure part.

2 and 5, if the heavy rain type determination step (S200) does not include the lower jet (S211), and the post-floor classification type is not the post-floor expansion type according to a preset criterion (S212), the heavy rain It is preferable to include the step (S214, S215) of determining the type as the typhoon front convergence type.

The typhoon front convergence type is a heavy rain type formed in the front convergence zone of the north typhoon, and occurs mainly in an area where the airflow moving from the right side of the typhoon to the north is weakened or deformed.

On the other hand, referring to Figures 2 and 5, the heavy rain type determination step (S200) is that the developed ground cyclones with the upper core nucleus defined by a predetermined criterion is located on the East Sea, the seasonal and topographical characteristics satisfy certain conditions The method may further include determining the heavy rain type as the east coast heavy rain type (S216 and S217).

The east coast heavy rain type is a type of heavy rain which is not distinguished as the lower jet of 850 hPa and the after-expanded type of 1000-500 hPa, and is a type generated by a combination of mechanical rise and atmospheric instability due to strong convergence and topographical effects in autumn.

As such, the heavy rain prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention predicts heavy rain after classifying heavy rain types using atmospheric structures such as lower jet and post-layer classification. There are advantages to it.

In addition, as described above, the rainfall probability can be derived based on the rainfall type model that analyzes the topographical characteristics and the correlation between the historical rainfall pattern and the atmospheric structure to further increase the prediction probability of the local rainfall and refine the local rainfall probability. Can be presented.

7 is a schematic view of the lower jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention, Figure 8 is a diagram illustrating a downpour jet of the lower jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The lower jet front type occupies the largest portion of heavy rain warning arrival cases, and is a heavy rain type in which airflow converges to the lower jet core front of 850 hPa.

The lower-jet type of the lower jet is mainly generated in stagnant wires such as rainy season wires, and medium-scale low pressure and 850 hPa low pressure or air pressure troughs are located on the West Sea, and the lower-level jets of southwestern winds from the lower layer atmosphere are strongly affected by the North Pacific high pressure. appear.

In addition, in the mid-air, wind and vertical warm winds occur vertically together with the west wind (west wind or southwest west wind).

2, 3 and 7, in the heavy rain type determination step (S200), the maximum wind speed point is found among the points having a wind speed of 25 knots or more and an air instability index of 30 or more at an altitude of 850 hpa of the lower jet. If the wind direction average, the average wind speed, and the air temperature within a predetermined range satisfy the predetermined criteria, it may be determined as the front type of the lower jet.

Referring to FIG. 7 as a preferred embodiment, the heavy rain type determination step (S200) finds the maximum wind speed point among the points having a wind speed of 25 knots (12.5 m / s) or more and an air instability index of 30 or more at an altitude of 850 hPa (eg, For example, if 1 pixel is 12 km, the wind direction average of ± 2 pixels) corresponds to the southwest wind conditions (180 ° to 255 °), and the average wind speed is 12.5 m / s or more, and the temperature is 14.5 ° C. or more. You can judge.

Also, referring to FIGS. 1, 7 and 8, the heavy rain zone setting step (S300) moves in a predetermined direction along a wireline starting from the center point and the center point of the lower jet, and changes so that the wind speed satisfies a predetermined criterion. The heavy rain area is an internal region that connects a first point and a second point that moves in a direction different from the predetermined direction starting from the first point, and meets an air instability index of 30 or less or fluctuates so that the wind direction satisfies a predetermined criterion. Can be set to (71).

Referring to FIGS. 7 and 8 as a preferred embodiment, the first point is set to a point where the wind speed is 7.5 m / s or less or the wind speed decreases as the first point moves to the northeast along the wireline from the center point.

In addition, the second point is a point where the wind speed is moved westward along the point where the ambient wind speed is closest to the first point and meets the wind direction outside the southwest wind condition or moves southward, or that the atmospheric instability index value is less than 30. do.

Subsequently, an inner region connecting the center point, the first point, and the second point is set as a heavy rain area 71.

In FIG. 8, the heavy rain area set by the heavy rain prediction method is represented by a thick blue solid line, and the solid red line is represented by 5 knot intervals with 850 hPa and 15 knots of isothermal lines, and the yellow area is 30 or more of the air instability index and black. Solid colored lines represent the 850hPa streamline.

9 is a schematic view of the lower jet back type according to an embodiment of the present invention, Figure 10 is an illustration of a downpour jet of the lower jet type according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The low-rise jet rear type occupies a small portion of all the heavy rain warning cases, but the duration is short because it is narrow to the north and south of the precipitation zone. Therefore, there are few cases of alarm arrival, but many cases have reached the warning.

In addition, the heavy rain zone of the rear jet bottom type is north of the entrance of the lower jet jet (Streak) of 850hPa, and the cold dry northwest air flows into the west sea where the cool air flows into the west sea and is formed by meeting with the north wind.

As shown in FIG. 9, the lower jet rear type is a convective precipitation zone in the form of a narrow east-west band and has a strong relationship with a cold front or a stagnation front, and has a strong strength but a narrow width, and thus a long duration, and mainly an upper layer. Since it appears near the end of trough, the center of the ground cyclone is characterized by being located north of the Korean peninsula or on the east coast.

Therefore, referring to FIGS. 2, 4, and 9, in the heavy rain type determination step (S200), when the northwest wind exists within a predetermined range in the north-south direction from the center point of the lower jet to a predetermined hardness point in the west direction, the lower jet back You can judge by type.

As a preferred embodiment, referring to Figure 9, the heavy rain type determination step (S200) is to find whether the north-west wind (270 ° ~ 359 °) exists within ± 48km north-south to the hardness 120.20318E (west) from the center point, the lower layer jet Judging by the rear type.

In addition, referring to FIGS. 1, 9 and 10, the heavy rain zone setting step S300 is predetermined in the south direction to a predetermined latitude point while moving by a predetermined position in the west direction from the center point of the lower jet to the longitude point. Search for points to find the southwest wind, the air instability index of 30 or more, and the wind speed of 15 knots or more. Among them, the lowest latitude is the first point, the first point westward from the first point, the second point, and the center point. An internal region connecting the center point, the first point, the second point, and the third point is set as the heavy rain zone 91 from the north to the third point as a third point.

9 and 10, in the heavy rain zone setting step S300, when there is a northwest wind, the grid is moved southward to latitude 32.127510N while moving one pixel in the west direction from the center point to the longitude of 120.20318E. Search to find grids with wind speeds of 15 knots, southwest winds, and air instability of 30 or more.

Thereafter, the coordinates having the lowest latitude among the grids are found and set as the first point, and the grid 36 km west from the coordinates of the first point is defined as the second point, and the third point 96 km north from the center point. Set as a point, the center point, the first point, the second point and the third point is connected to set the heavy rain zone (91).

In FIG. 10, the heavy rain region set by the heavy rain prediction method is represented by a thick blue solid line, and the solid red line is represented by 5 knot intervals with 850 hPa and 15 knots of isothermal lines, and the yellow area is 30 or more of the air instability index and black. Solid colored lines represent the 850hPa streamline.

11 is a schematic diagram of a typhoon front convergence type according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The typhoon front convergence type is a heavy rain that occurs in the convergence zone located in the north of the north typhoon, and there is no clear low pressure on the weather map, and it occurs mainly at the northern pressure valley end or saddle.

In addition, the typhoon front convergence type is indistinguishable from the distinct low pressure in the synoptic barometer, but the vertical structure of ��� layer convergence and upper divergence is distinct, and the atmospheric instability index occurs mainly at a high value of 35 or more, and 10 to the west and northwest of the value. It also features a stable zone.

The typhoon front convergence type means that heavy rain occurs where energy accumulates near the boundary where a high temperature air stream moving from the right side of the typhoon meets a low temperature air stream. Located west and northwest.

Therefore, referring to FIGS. 2, 5, and 11, in the heavy rain type determination step (S200), an average air pressure in a predetermined area is determined based on a minimum sea level air pressure around the East China Sea, which is preset to a latitude and longitude of a predetermined range. Below, it can be judged as the typhoon total convergence type.

As a preferred embodiment, referring to FIG. 11, when the average value of ± 3 pixels around the lowest sea level �� is less than 1001 hPa around the East China Sea (latitude 20.648375N to 26.908382N, longitude 121.82407E to 129.93770E), the typhoon front convergence type You can judge.

1 and 11, in the heavy rain zone setting step S300, an atmospheric instability index belongs to a predetermined criterion around a preset Korean peninsula in a predetermined range, southeast wind of a predetermined criterion, wind speed of a predetermined criterion or less, and predetermined criterion. The northernmost region of the region where the equivalent temperature and the expected precipitation of is greater than or equal to a predetermined criterion may be set as the heavy rain region 111.

As a preferred embodiment, referring to Figure 11, the heavy rain zone setting step (S300) has an air instability index of 33 or more and less than 40 around the Korean Peninsula, southeast wind (90 ° ~ 210 °) of 850 hPa, wind speed of 25 knots, 333K ~ 340K, a significant temperature above 0, and find the northernmost region of the precipitation over 0 to set the heavy rain zone (111).

12 is an exemplary diagram of a heavy rain prediction result verification according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The rain prediction result was verified by applying a heavy rain prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention to a 3-hour interval prediction (+ 12-48 hours) of UM-RDAPS (2 times (00, 12UTC)). .

The automatic weather observation system (AWS) of the verification target was one representative of each city and county unit, and a total of 168 points were included.

When the heavy rain zone is detected in the prediction area of the UM-RDAPS, it is determined that the cumulative precipitation of the automatic weather observation system located in the heavy rain area exceeds the heavy rain warning standard (Caution 80mm / 12h), and the time when the heavy rain zone is detected The 12-hour cumulative precipitation within +12 hours is determined to be a hit only when the threshold is met, and the case before the detection time is not considered.

In analyzing the results of the verification, a total of 155 heavy rain areas were detected, of which 128 were hit and 82.6% accurate.

This means that most of the heavy rain is closely related to the important factors of the heavy rain prediction type of the present invention, which means that the heavy rain prediction method according to the present invention can be utilized for preliminary situational monitoring, recognition and preliminary news of heavy rain.

In addition, within 39 hours, a hit ratio of 86.3% was used as a reference for preliminary news coverage.In the case of preliminary news coverage, heavy rainfall forecasts of 100mm of precipitation or more per day (24 hours) depending on the length of time in the heavy rain zone of each site It is possible.

6 is a block diagram of a heavy rain prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention, Figures 13 to 14 are screen diagrams of a heavy rain prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 6, the heavy rain prediction system 100 includes a weather information collecting unit 110 collecting weather information for each region, a geographic information unit 120 for managing geographic information corresponding to the collected weather information for each region, and a lower jet. And a heavy rain type model defined by n, based on a criterion including a post-layer classification type, a heavy rain type model unit 150, and analyzing the collected weather information, according to the heavy rain type model, a weather belonging to one of the n heavy rain types. Heavy rain type determination unit 140 for determining a heavy rain area setting unit 130 by using the collected weather information and the geographic information to correspond to the points satisfying the heavy rain area conditions according to the type of heavy rain It includes.

In addition, the heavy rain prediction system 100 may further include a display unit 170 which displays the set heavy rain area in different colors according to a predetermined criterion or automatically displays an area where the heavy rain warning standard can be reached.

That is, the display unit 170 may automatically express the heavy rain area set by the heavy rain prediction system 100 using the numerical prediction model to the user.

Conventional heavy rain prediction system provides a heavy rain detection screen in a single color, the heavy rain prediction system 100 of the present invention by processing the graphic in different colors according to the predicted precipitation to visualize the area where rain is concentrated, the likelihood of reaching the special news for each point It is easy to grasp.

In addition, the heavy rain prediction system 100 may further include a weather information database 160 for storing and managing past weather information and weather conditions.

Although not shown, the heavy rain prediction system 110 may further include a data search unit for searching the weather information database.

Through this, the user can find the past case similar to the weather element value of the predicted heavy rain zone and check the distribution of precipitation by location.

According to a preferred embodiment, the weather information database unit 160 may store a case in which cumulative precipitation reaches a heavy rain warning in the entire station of the automatic weather observation system.

In addition, the weather information database unit 160 preferably stores both numerical model analysis data for each heavy rain case and data of a full automatic weather observation system of heavy rain dates.

Through this, the heavy rain prediction system 100 may extract the similar situation of the automatic weather stations corresponding to the heavy rain area when the heavy rain zone is detected in the weather information database unit 160 and provide the same to the user. It is desirable to classify historical data into average and significance levels and present them to users through visual display means such as bar graphs.

FIG. 13 illustrates that the heavy rain prediction system displays detailed forecast precipitation data for each point, and FIG. 14 collects precipitation similar to the situation of each station through the heavy rain prediction system, using a standard deviation of significant minimum, The maximum value of significance is shown.

The heavy rain prediction system may provide this value to the user through graphical means such as a distribution chart.

Referring to FIG. 13 and FIG. 14, the torrential prediction system displays an area on a map that may reach a torrential rain storm standard, and searches for past cases similar to the atmospheric state of the torrential rain prediction area to determine an estimated cumulative precipitation. To be displayed.

In addition, by providing a variety of information related to heavy rain, such as similar past case days, precipitation by station, the forecaster can take a sufficient time to recognize the possibility of heavy rain occurrence and to construct a forecast scenario according to the situation.

As such, the heavy rain prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention provides the user visually with various heavy rain related information such as detailed predicted precipitation, past case ranking, and significant rainfall probability, allowing the user to intuitively grasp the current situation and change the situation. There is an advantage to recognize the possibility of heavy rain in advance and to cope with this by enabling to cope with various.

The foregoing embodiments and advantages are merely exemplary and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention. However, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various changes and modifications may be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the present invention. .

100: heavy rain prediction system 110: meteorological information collection unit
120: geographic information section 130: heavy rain area setting unit
140: heavy rain type determination unit 150: heavy rain type model unit
160: weather information database unit 170: display unit

Claims (13)

In the heavy rain prediction method of the heavy rain prediction system,
a) collecting, by the heavy rain prediction system, regional weather information;
b) analyzing, by the heavy rain prediction system, the collected weather information according to the heavy rain type model defined by the number of rain jets and the type of the after-floor classification according to n types of rainstorm jets; And
c) the heavy rain prediction system using the collected weather information and pre-stored geographic information to correspond to the points satisfying the heavy rain area conditions according to the type of heavy rain determined in step b) to set the heavy rain area; Heavy rain prediction method.
The method of claim 1, wherein in step b)
The heavy rain type model is defined by a criterion including a layered expansion type of 1000 hpa to 500 hpa and a lower jet of 850 hpa and a wind speed of 25 knots or more.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
And determining the heavy rain type as the lower jet front type when the lower jet is the front type and the post-layer classification type is the post-layer extended type.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
And determining the heavy rain type as the lower jet rear type when the lower jet is the rear type and the post-layer classification type is the post-layer extended type.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
And determining the type of heavy rain as a typhoon direct impact type when the lower layer jet is present and the type of post-layer classification is not extended after layer.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
And determining that the type of heavy rain is a typhoon front convergence type if the lower layer jet does not exist and the type of post-layer classification is not post-layer extended type.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
And determining the heavy rain type as a tropical low pressure type when the lower layer jet does not exist and the post-layer classification type is post-layer extended type.
The method of claim 1, wherein b)
Determining the heavy rain type as the east coast heavy rain type when the developed ground cyclones with the upper cores defined by a predetermined criterion are located on the east sea, and the season and the topographical characteristics satisfy the predetermined conditions; Heavy rain prediction method.
The method of claim 1,
In step b), the maximum wind speed point is found among the points having a wind speed of 25 knots or more and an air instability index of 30 or more at an altitude of 850 hpa of the lower jet, and the wind direction average, the average wind speed, and the air temperature within a predetermined range of the maximum wind speed point are preset. If satisfied, judging by the type of the lower jet;
The step c) is different from the direction starting from the first point and the first point that moves in a predetermined direction along the wireline starting from the center point, the center point, and fluctuates so as to satisfy a preset criterion. And setting an internal region connected to a second point in which an air instability index which is moved in a direction and meets a second point that the air instability index is 30 or less or the wind direction changes to satisfy a predetermined criterion is a heavy rain region.
The method of claim 1,
Step b) is a step of judging the rear jet type of the lower jet if there is a northwest wind in a predetermined range in the north-south direction from the center point of the lower jet to the predetermined hardness point in the west direction;
The step c) searches for the southwest wind, the air instability index of 30 or more, and the wind speed of 15 knots or more by moving southward to a preset latitude point while moving westward from the center point of the lower jet to the longitude point. The center point, the first point, and the second point, the lowest point being the first point, the point of the preset position westward from the first point the second point, and the point of the preset position northward from the center point the third point. And setting an internal region connecting a point and a third point as the heavy rain zone.
The method of claim 1,
Step b) is a step of determining the typhoon front convergence type when the average air pressure in the preset area around the lowest seam pressure around the East China Sea, which is preset to a latitude and longitude within a predetermined range, is below a preset standard.
The step c) is a step of setting the northmost region as the heavy rain region in which the air instability index belongs to a predetermined criterion around the Korean peninsula, and the wind direction, wind speed, equivalent temperature, and expected precipitation satisfy the predetermined criterion; The heavy rain prediction method characterized by the above-mentioned.
In the heavy rain prediction system,
A weather information collection unit for collecting weather information for each region;
A geographic information unit that manages geographic information corresponding to the collected local weather information;
A heavy rain type model unit which manages n heavy rain type models based on criteria including a lower jet type and a lower jet type;
A heavy rain type determination unit that analyzes the collected weather information to determine a weather belonging to one of the n heavy rain types according to the heavy rain type model; And
A heavy rain area setting unit configured to set heavy rain areas by matching points satisfying heavy rain area conditions according to the type of heavy rain by using the collected weather information and the geographic information.
The method of claim 12,
And a display unit configured to display the set heavy rain area in different colors according to a predetermined criterion or to automatically display a region in which a heavy rain warning standard can be reached.

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