JPH11256543A - Infection pathogen risk management mapping system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To quicken measures and to enlarge the range of investigation by estimating the amounts of discharge of potential pathogens in advance since the delay of the time required for investigation and limitations on the range of investigation become problems in the measures taken against infection pathogens on the basis of field investigation. SOLUTION: This system includes a basin database 150 in which information about a target area is collected, a pathogen discharge source extraction means 200 for extracting the position of a pathogen discharge source and scale information, a pathogen discharge estimation means 300 for calculating the amounts of discharge of potential pathogens, and an infection risk distribution display means 400 for displaying the results on a digital map. The time and labor related to field investigation are thus reduced, and the evaluation of the risks of infection pathogens can be achieved rapidly over a wide area.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system for assessing the risk of infectious diseases such as cryptoprotozoa, and more particularly to the potential of infectious disease pathogens using various basin information collected on a mapping system. To assess the potential emissions (risk potential) in advance and to identify the source of the pathogen when an infected person actually occurs.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art The number of cases of infection with infectious disease pathogens represented by cryptoprotozoa is increasing, and the need for risk assessment and management of infectious disease pathogens is rapidly increasing. In the case of cryptoprotozoa, the main route of transmission is by oral ingestion by drinking river water, so the route from the pathogenic source to the water supply facility is subject to risk assessment and management.

[0003] The current response is to directly sample water at a river point where the crypt parasites may flow from the crypt parasites that are judged to be suspicious, and analyze this sample to determine the presence or absence of the crypt parasites. It is used as information for confirming and identifying the emission source. In such a risk assessment based on a water quality survey, the survey may take a long time. In some cases, the places where the survey can be performed are limited due to constraints on human labor and costs.

[0004]

In the above prior art,
Since it takes a long time for water quality surveys to detect infectious disease pathogens such as cryptoprotozoa, there may be cases where the time delay until infection prevention measures are implemented becomes large.

[0005] In addition, since the places where the investigation can be performed are limited, only the current state of the investigation places is grasped, and the risk distribution of the cryptoprotozoa may not be evaluated. This issue becomes more pronounced the wider the region being evaluated.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to provide a method for promptly taking measures against infectious diseases by preliminarily assessing potential risks from information on sources of infectious diseases such as cryptoprotozoa, which are likely to be released. Another object of the present invention is to provide a system that makes the target evaluation area wider.

[0007]

According to the present invention, in a mapping system for managing basin information of a water source, information relating to the position and scale of a pathogenic source having a possibility of discharging an infectious disease pathogen in the basin is stored. A basin database; a pathogenic source extracting means for extracting, from information stored in the basin database, information on the pathogenic sources capable of reaching a specified location specified in the river channel; A pathogen emission amount estimating means for estimating a potential pathogenic emission amount from the pathogenic emission source extracted by the pathogenic emission source extracting means, using a pathogen emission intensity unit given in advance for each type,
An infectious disease risk distribution display means for displaying the potential pathogenic discharge estimated by the pathogenic discharge estimating means superimposed on the digital map information stored in the basin database. suggest.

[0008] The mapping system may further comprise: input means for inputting a place of residence of a person infected with the infectious disease or a water quality investigation site relating to the pathogen; Using the information on the input position and the information on the potential pathogenic discharge estimated by the pathogenic discharge estimating means, at the time when the information input by the input means such as the infected person information is obtained, A source identification means for evaluating the likelihood that the source is the source of the pathogen that actually caused the infectious disease pathogen is proposed.

In the mapping system according to the present invention, using watershed information integrated as a database on the mapping system, taking into account the location of a source of discharge that may discharge infectious disease pathogens, a water intake or the like is provided. A broad assessment of the potential pathogenic emissions (risk potential) of each source for key risk management points.

This makes it possible to quickly evaluate and manage risks in a wide area without waiting for the present situation to be grasped by the water quality survey.

As a prior art relating to a system for managing or monitoring watershed information on a water source, there is one disclosed in JP-A-3-35165 or JP-A-6-304546, which is directly related to the present invention. is not.

[0012]

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The present invention relates to a system for performing risk assessment on infectious diseases by applying a mapping technology capable of processing digitized maps and their attribute information. The infectious diseases dealt with here particularly refer to pathogens that are transmitted orally through drinking water intake, such as cryptoprotozoa.

[0013] Cryptoprotozoa, which are typical infectious disease pathogens handled by the present invention, are parasitic protozoa belonging to the order Coccidia of spores, and are used for domestic animals such as cattle, horses and pigs, and mammals such as dogs, cats and rats. Animals serve as insect hosts. It also infects humans through ingestion through food and drink and fingers. It develops after an incubation period of 4 to 10 days after infection. The symptoms are
Watery diarrhea with abdominal pain continues for about 3 to 7 days. Outbreaks of tap water were reported in 1993.
In Illinois, U.S.A. in 2004 (including 12 deaths)
1), and 8,000 people in Japan were reported in Saitama Prefecture in 1996.

[0014] Conventionally, when such an infectious disease is reported, a possible infection route is assumed,
Attempts have been made to identify the source of infectious disease pathogens by conducting water quality surveys in questionable rivers and rivers. The detection operation for confirming whether or not Cryptoparasites are present in sample water such as river water requires a large amount of labor and time because complicated operations such as concentration and staining are required. As a result, the time lag before identifying the source and taking appropriate countermeasures may not only be large, but also the survey site must be limited to a small number of sites, and the current status of cryptoparasite emissions should be widely understood. It is practically difficult to do.

On the other hand, the present invention uses the information of the water source river to be surveyed and its basin (refers to the surrounding area that directly affects the river water quality and quantity), and uses the information on the potential pathogen of infectious diseases and pathogens. This system provides a new system to minimize the number of water quality survey points required to identify the source and to shorten the time required for identification by pre-evaluating the target emissions.

An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 shows an entire configuration of an embodiment in which the mapping system according to the present invention is applied to the risk assessment of cryptoprotozoa. The configuration of the mapping system 100 according to the present invention can be roughly divided into (1) basin database 150, (2) pathogen emission source extraction means 200, (3) pathogen emission estimation means 300, and (4) infectious disease risk distribution display means 400 ( 5) Infected person information input means 500 and (6) emission source specifying means 600.

First, a rough flow of the risk evaluation of the crypt parasite by the mapping system 100 will be described. In FIG. 1, a water intake 2 is present in a flow path of a river 1. The water intake 2 is a facility for taking in raw water, which is a source of tap water, from a river, and is an important point in water quality management. The basin of the river 1 has a point emission source 3 that can identify its specific position as a source of cryptoprotozoa, such as a livestock breeder, and a non-existent non-identifiable area whose area is spread and whose position cannot be identified as a point. There is a point emission source 4. By referring to the basin database 150 that stores the flow path information of the river 1 and the information related to the emission source, the pathogenic emission source extracting means 200 extracts all the emission sources that may release the cryptoprotozoa. Then, the list of the extracted emission sources is output to the pathogen emission amount estimating means 300. The pathogen emission estimation means 300 uses the emission estimation model to estimate the potential cryptoparasite emissions from each emission source (ie,
The risk potential of Cryptozoa). The risk potential estimated by the pathogen emission amount estimating means 300 is sent to the infectious disease risk distribution displaying means 400, and is superimposed and displayed on a digital map of the basin. As a result, the risk potential of the entire basin can be visualized, and can be used for planning of measures against infectious diseases caused by cryptoprotozoa.

Furthermore, when an infected person actually occurs, the infected person information input means 500 is used to enter the point of occurrence of the infected person, the water quality survey result in the river 1 (whether or not Cryptoparasites are detected, Is the number). The input information here is sent to the emission source specifying means 600, and the destination of the infected person is set as the end point, and all the emission sources that can reach this end point are searched. For the found emission source, the probability that is directly causing the infected person is calculated, and only the emission source with a predetermined accuracy or higher is output to the infectious disease risk distribution display means 400 as a candidate of the infection source. I do. The infectious disease risk distribution display means 400 provides a display such that the accuracy of the source of the infection is clear, and the source of the infection can be easily identified.

The above is the general flow of the operation of the mapping system 100.

Each unit of the mapping system 100 is realized by a computer such as a workstation or a personal computer, or software executable by the computer. The basin database 150 is constructed on an auxiliary storage device in the computer, such as a hard disk, but may be constructed on hardware other than the computer itself, such as a file server.

Next, details of each component of the mapping system 100 will be described in order.

The basin database 150 stores various types of information related to the basin of the target river 1. As shown in FIG. 2, the basin range is classified into a raster type, a vector type, a site type, and the like according to a division unit. The raster-type data 150a expresses data in units in which a target area is regularly divided into rectangles. Specifically, the raster-type data 150a includes population data and national land area statistics (national census) published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Representative examples include cattle and pig data on livestock breeding numbers (national land numerical information) published by the Geographical Survey Institute.

The vector type data 150b expresses data in units of divisions expressed by arbitrary line segments or polygons, while the raster type is a regular division format. The data handled in the examples include data on river channels, administrative boundaries, and sewage treatment zones. The site-type data 150c is data in units of points that can be expressed as coordinates, such as the position of a specific business establishment. Sewage treatment plants and regular water quality observation points, etc., belong to this category in addition to the specific business sites.

In addition to the above three types of data, various data 150 d such as an emission estimation model used for estimating the amount of cryptoparasite emissions and an emission intensity are also included in the basin database 150.
Is stored in The basin database 150 has a general function as a database management system (DBMS), such as input, search, editing, and output, as well as the stored data itself. The execution of these functions depends on the CRT
5 can be performed with the keyboard 10 while referring to the screen display of FIG.

The contents of the basin database 150 have been described above. In performing the various means described below,
Necessary data is input and output through the basin database 150.

The pathogen discharge source extracting means 200 described next
Extracts from the basin database 150 a list of sources required to estimate the potential emissions of the specified infectious disease pathogens. The operation of the pathogenic discharge source extracting means 200 will be described with reference to the flow shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 3, there are five steps in total. First, in a target infectious disease setting step 210, which is the first step, the type of infectious disease to be subjected to risk evaluation is set. The setting can be made by input from the keyboard 10, but it is also possible to adopt a method of selecting from a display menu of the CRT 5 by an auxiliary input means (not shown) such as a mouse. In the present embodiment, the target infectious disease is the crypt parasite, and the default of the setting is the crypt parasite, so that the setting in this step can be omitted.

In the next estimation model reference step 220, an emission estimation model for estimating the set infectious disease pathogen emission is referred to. The model referred to here is stored in various data 150d of the basin database 150. By this reference, a list of data items necessary for estimating the emission amount is created. The created list is sent to the database search step 230.

In the database search step 230, the data items included in the data item list created in the previous estimation model reference step 220 are searched from the basin database 150 to confirm whether or not there is available data. If there is a data item that does not exist in the basin database 150, the item is output as a message and an input to the basin database 150 is requested.

In the next emission source extraction step 240, all the emission sources that are likely to emit the pathogen of the infectious disease set in the target infectious disease setting step 210 are added to the point emission sources registered in the basin database 150. 3, and from the non-point emission source 4. The determination as to whether the emission source is applicable is made based on whether or not the emission source is included as a variable in the emission estimation model referred to in the estimation model reference step 220. As described above, the cryptoprotozoa parasitize livestock and the like, proliferate, and are excreted together with the excrement. For this reason, in this embodiment,
The point emission sources include business establishments engaged in livestock industry and sewage treatment plants. In addition, as a non-point emission source, a grazing land or the like where excreta may flow into a river due to runoff on the ground surface during rainfall or the like is applicable. In the last emission source list output step 250, the list of emission sources extracted in the previous step is output to the pathogen emission amount estimating means 300. The above is the description of the pathogen discharge source extracting means 200.

The pathogen emission amount estimating means 300 described below estimates a potential pathogen emission amount based on the number of emission sources and the emission source intensity. Here, the number of emission sources means the number of livestock by type of livestock in the case of point emission sources such as livestock farms and the area of non-point emission sources such as pastures. The emission source unit is a value indicating the emission amount per unit number, and has a unit such as the number of cryptoprotozoa / head number (cattle) and the number of cryptoprotozoa / km ² (grazing land area).

The pathogen discharge amount estimating means 300 is composed of five steps as shown in FIG. In the first radix data reading step 310, the radix of each emission source is searched and read from the emission source list output from the pathogenic emission source extraction means 200 with reference to the basin database 150.

In the next emission unit reading step 320, an emission unit, which is a coefficient of the emission estimation model, is read from various data 150d of the basin database 150. It is premised that the emission intensity is given in advance for each type of emission source. As the value of the basic unit, the value shown in the past research results may be used, or the value based on the original field survey may be used to reflect the characteristics of the target area.

In the case of estimating not only the emission amount at the present time but also the emission amount in the future, a future scenario, that is, a condition for estimating the emission amount in the future is set in a next scenario setting step 330. As the conditions of the future scenario, the future value of the number of emission sources and emission intensity, or the rate of change is set. If the future emissions are not to be estimated, this step is omitted and the next estimation model calculation step 340 is executed.

In the estimation model calculation step 340, the potential emission amount of each emission source is actually calculated using the emission amount estimation model. Examples of the emission estimation model are shown in Expressions 1 and 2.

[0036]

[Formula 1] P ₁ (Livestock business establishment n, fiscal year t) = Σ ｛S ₁ (K, t)
× N (n, K, t)｝ where P ₁ (n, t): Cryptoparasite emission from point emission source n in year t S ₁ (K, t): Emission source of emission source K in year t Unit N (n, K, t): base of emission source K of point emission source n in year t K = {cattle, horse, pig}

[0037]

P ₂ (grazing land m, year t) = S ₂ (m, t) × M (m, t) where P ₂ (m, t) is the cryptogram of year t from the non-point emission source m Protozoal emissions S ₂ (m, t): Source unit of year t of non-point emission source m M (m, t): Area of year t of non-point emission source m Typical emission sources other than livestock farms Can be estimated using the same emission estimation model as in the equation (1). In addition, the non-point emission sources other than the pasture land can be estimated using the same model as in Equation 2. The emission amount estimated in this step is sent to the infectious disease risk distribution display means 400 together with the emission source position information in the estimation result output step 350.

The above is the description of the pathogen discharge amount estimating means 300. In the process from the pathogen emission source extraction means 200 to the subsequent pathogen emission estimation means 300, the risk assessment of infectious diseases due to cryptoprotozoa has been completed. Requires visualization of estimation results. Infectious disease risk distribution display means 400
Is a means for performing this visualization.

Infectious disease risk distribution display means 40 shown in FIG.
The operation of "0" will be described below in order. First, in a target area map reading step 410, a digital map of a region targeted for risk evaluation is read from the basin database 150. This map contains information such as administrative boundaries and roads, and is used as a background for displaying the risk evaluation results. With this background, the position of the discharge source and the discharge amount distribution can be displayed in such a manner that the actual positional relationship can be understood.

Next target area river flow path reading step 42
At 0, the digital data of the river channel is read from the basin database 150. As the river channel data, the national land numerical information disclosed by the Geographical Survey Institute is the most widely used.

In the astigmatic emission source emission display step 430, a screen is displayed so that the emission level of the astigmatism emission source can be identified. FIG. 6 shows an example of the display. In this example, a land use category such as a grazing land is represented by raster type data. The density of the hatching pattern is changed according to the level of the total emission amount of the astigmatism emission sources in each mesh, so that the difference in the emission amount can be easily identified.

In the next point emission source emission amount display step 440,
Display on the screen so that the emission level from the point emission source can be identified. FIG. 6 shows an example of the display. The size of the circular symbol indicates the level of the emission amount, and the circular symbol is arranged at the center position of the emission source.

By displaying the non-point emission source emission amount display step 430 and the point emission source emission amount display step 440, the non-point emission source and the point emission source can be identified on the screen of the CRT 5, and furthermore, each exists. The position and scale are clearly visible,
It is possible to accurately understand the risk distribution of infections caused by cryptoprotozoa.

The operation of the infectious disease risk distribution display means 400 has been described above. The procedure for preliminarily evaluating the potential infectious disease risk due to Cryptozoa can be executed by the above-described pathogenic emission source extracting means 200, pathogenic emission amount estimating means 300, and infectious disease risk distribution displaying means 400. The range including the basin database 150 is the minimum configuration of the mapping system 100.

Input means 5 for infected person information described below.
00 and the emission source specifying means 600 are executed when an infected person of Cryptoplasma parasite is actually reported or when Cryptoplasma parasite is detected from the water quality survey in the target river 1. As a rough flow, information such as the location of the infected person and the water quality survey and the detection level are input, and further, using the emission distribution estimated by the pathogenic emission estimation means 300, etc., Assess if it is an emission source,
A suspicious emission source with high accuracy is output to the infectious disease risk distribution display means 400. As a result, it is possible to effectively support the understanding of the infection route and the identification of the cause discharge source.

The operation of the infected person information input means 500 is shown in FIG.
This will be described using the flow of FIG. First, in a position input step 510 for infected person information or the like, the position of a person infected with Cryptoparasite or a point where Cryptoparasite is detected in a river water sample by water quality survey is input. The input of the position is performed by displaying a digital map of the target area on the CRT 5 and pointing to a corresponding point using an auxiliary input device (not shown) such as a mouse or an input tablet. In addition, in addition to this, an address or the like is directly input from the keyboard 10, and the latitude / longitude and U
It is also possible to adopt a method using an address matching technique for converting to map coordinates such as TM (Universal Transverse Mercator) coordinates.

In the next infected person information present state input step 520, the present state information of the infected person input in the previous infected person information position input step 510 or the water quality investigation point is inputted. The current status information here refers to the number of infected persons, the number of affected persons, the degree of onset, etc. for the location of infected persons.
For water quality survey points, it indicates the detected concentration of cryptoprotozoa (the number of individuals per unit volume of sample water) and the activity (the ratio of active individuals having activity). For input of information, after designating a position or a point, information corresponding thereto is input from the keyboard 10. The input information is output from the last infected person information etc. output step 530 to the emission source identification means 600, and is used to identify the cause emission source.

Next, the operation of the discharge source specifying means 600 will be described with reference to FIG.
This will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. The processing in this means is composed of five steps. In the first emission source backtracking step 610, a search is made for an emission source that can reach the infected person position input in the infected person information position input step 510 of the infected person information input means 500 or the water quality survey point. Reachable means that infectious disease pathogens discharged from the source have reached the surface of the ground and flowed into rivers, and the pathogens or water quality surveys were conducted while the pathogens were flowing downstream. If there is a point, it can be considered reachable. The actual determination as to whether the vehicle can be reached is performed according to the procedure shown in FIG. First, in the river channel section corresponding to the catchment area to which each emission source belongs, the nearest point of the emission source is determined. Next, search the upstream channel from the river channel where the infected person or the water quality survey point is located (backtracking)
If the vehicle passes through the flow path to which the nearest point belongs before reaching the most upstream end flow path, it is determined that the vehicle can be reached.

In the next reach route distance calculation step 620, the route distance between the discharge source determined to be reachable and the infected person (or water quality survey point) is calculated. This path distance is obtained by the sum of the flow distance from the discharge source to the nearest point of the river flow path and the flow distance from the nearest point of the river flow path to the infected person (or water quality survey point). The reach distance can be calculated with the function of calculating the straight-line distance between two points, and the flow-down distance can be calculated with the function of calculating the sum of the lengths of the river channels that pass through.A common mapping system handles map information. It can be realized by the function provided in.

In the emission source accuracy calculation step 630, the accuracy of whether or not each emission source is a cryptoprotozoa that actually infected the infected person (or was detected at the water quality survey point) is calculated. The accuracy increases as the potential discharge estimated by the pathogen discharge estimator 300 increases, and decreases as the distance to the infected person (or water quality survey point) increases. Equation 3 shows an example of a function used for calculating the accuracy.

[0051]

K (source n, infected person a) = w × F ₁ ｛P ₁ (n,
t) {+ (1−w) × F ₂ {L (n, a)} where K (n, a): the probability that the source n is the causative source of the infected person a w: weighting factor F ₁ : potential emissions likelihood function F _2: accuracy function L according to reach (n, a): reach the weighting coefficient w from the emission sources n to infected persons a is an emphasis on either the arrival distance and potential emissions This is a coefficient for adjusting whether to be the accuracy, and may be set arbitrarily. The accuracy function F ₁ is a function that increases monotonically with an increase in potential emissions. On the other hand, the accuracy function F ₂ is a function that monotonically decreases as the reach distance increases. Since the accuracy is easier to understand if it has a predetermined value range, it is desirable that each accuracy function is a function having a saturation characteristic between [0, 1], for example, a sigmoid function.

In the next emission source ranking assigning step 640, up to a predetermined rank is assigned to the emission sources in the descending order of accuracy.
In the final emission source identification result output step 650, a list of emission sources assigned with a ranking is displayed on the infectious disease risk distribution display means 40.
Output to 0. The output emission source is displayed in such a manner that its position and distribution can be understood by, for example, highlighting and displaying the potential emission amount as shown in FIG.

The above is the description of the configuration and operation of the embodiment in which the mapping system according to the present invention is applied to the risk assessment of cryptoprotozoa. The present invention can be applied to other infectious diseases such as O-157 in a similar procedure, and the same effects as in the present embodiment can be obtained.

[0054]

According to the present invention, it is possible to evaluate the potential pathogenic discharge in the target area in a wide range using the basin information available in the mapping system. As a result, risk assessment and management for a wide area can be quickly performed without waiting for grasp of the current situation by water quality survey.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an entire configuration of an embodiment in which a mapping system according to the present invention is applied to risk assessment of cryptoprotozoa.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating types of data stored in a basin database.

FIG. 3 is a view for explaining main steps of a pathogen discharge source extracting means.

FIG. 4 is a view for explaining main steps of a pathogen discharge amount estimating means.

FIG. 5 is a view for explaining main steps of an infectious disease risk distribution display means.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of display by the infectious disease risk distribution display means.

FIG. 7 is a view for explaining the main steps of an input unit for infected person information and the like;

FIG. 8 is a view for explaining main steps of a discharge source identification unit.

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a step of determining whether or not an infectious disease pathogen is reachable.

[Explanation of symbols]

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... River, 2 ... Water intake, 3 ... Point emission source, 4 ... Non-point emission source, 5 ... CRT, 10 ... Keyboard, 100 ... Mapping system, 150 ... Basin database, 200 ... Pathogen emission source extraction means, 300 means for estimating pathogen discharge, 40
0: infectious disease risk distribution display means, 500: infected person information input means, 600: emission source specifying means.

 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────の Continued on the front page (72) Inventor Mikio Yoda 5-2-1 Omikacho, Hitachi City, Ibaraki Prefecture Inside the Hitachi, Ltd. Omika Plant

Claims (5)

[Claims] 1. A mapping system for managing basin information of a water source, comprising: a basin database storing information on a position and a scale of a pathogen discharge source having a possibility of discharging an infectious disease pathogen in the basin; A pathogenic source extracting means for extracting information on the pathogenic source capable of reaching a specified location designated in the river channel from the stored information; and a pathogen given in advance for each type of the pathogenic source. A pathogenic emission amount estimating means for estimating a potential pathogenic emission amount from the pathogenic emission source extracted by the pathogenic emission source extracting means, using an emission intensity unit; and a potential pathogenic emission estimated by the pathogenic emission amount estimating means. Infectious disease risk distribution display means for displaying the amount superimposed on the digital map information stored in the basin database. Disk management mapping system. 2. A mapping system for managing basin information of a water source, comprising: a basin database storing information relating to a position and a scale of a pathogenic discharge source having a possibility of discharging cryptoprotozoa in the basin; and storing the information in the basin database. Pathogen source extraction means for extracting information on the pathogenic sources that can reach the water intake in the river channel from the obtained information, and a pathogen emission amount given in advance for each type of the pathogenic sources Using a basic unit, a pathogenic emission estimation means for estimating a potential cryptoprotozoan emission from the pathogenic emission source extracted by the pathogen emission source extraction means, and a cryptoprotozoan emission estimated by the pathogenic emission estimation means Infectious disease risk distribution display means for superimposing and displaying the digital map information stored in the basin database. Original risk management mapping system. 3. The mapping system according to claim 1, further comprising: a residence of a person infected with the infectious disease;
Or an input means for inputting infected person information or the like for inputting a water quality investigation point relating to the pathogen, information on the position input by the input means for the infected person information or the like, and a potential pathogenic discharge estimated by the pathogenic discharge amount estimating means. Using the information on the amount, at the time when the information input by the input means such as the infected person information is obtained, the probability that each pathogenic source is the pathogenic source that actually generated the infectious disease pathogen is evaluated. And a source identification means. 4. The mapping system according to claim 3, wherein the accuracy evaluation performed by said emission source identification means monotonically increases according to a potential pathogen emission amount and is input by said infected person information input means. A risk management mapping system for infectious diseases, which is performed using a function that monotonically decreases according to the distance between the location and the pathogenic source. 5. A recording medium for a computer storing a program for realizing the means of the mapping system according to claim 1.