JPH11149465A - Evaluation method using time constant - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To facilitate automatic evaluation by a computer by setting an initial value and a time constant for an evaluation object, calculating the function of time based on a specified condition by using the initial value and the time constant and then predicting the evaluation of the evaluation object based on the size of the function of the time. SOLUTION: In the case of deciding the initial value of an evaluation value to be a certain fixed value j1 , the time constant τ of the equation of E)1 (t)= A1 .exp(-t/τ) is set so as to shorten a period in which the evaluation value is lowered to a reference value. In this case, E1 (t) is the function and A1 is a constant. Then, in passing an inspection in an initial period t1 , an addition value j2 is added to the evaluation value in τ so as to be equal to the next initial value j1 , the time constant 7 is slightly prolonged further and the period until the next inspection period t2 is slightly prolonged. Further, in the case of passing also the inspection in t2 , the addition value j3 is added to the evaluation value in t2 , the time constant τ is prolonged slightly more, the period until the evaluation value is lowered to the reference value is calculated and an inspection period is predicted.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a time constant which is evaluated for an evaluation object whose evaluation decreases or increases while showing a tendency that the degree of change is large at first, but the degree of change is reduced as time passes. It relates to the evaluation method using.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art When it is necessary to evaluate things, particularly when the evaluation target is to judge based on abstract elements or conceptual elements, a computer is required. It is often left to human judgment rather than relying on such factors. For example, it is difficult for a computer to determine how the popularity of popular products such as books, music CDs, game software, etc. changes. However, for example, when such a product is purchased by a retail store, since the purchase amount depends on popularity, it is necessary to predict how much popularity will continue in the future.
Even if a computer attempts to determine such an operation using some element as a parameter, it is generally necessary for a human to finally confirm the suitability of the operation.

[0003]

However, when the above evaluation is performed by a human, there is a problem in terms of objectivity.
It is also conceivable that the conclusions will be different each time a decision is made or by the person making the decision. On the other hand, if you try to make a computer automatically evaluate complex parameters by inputting them into the computer, there are problems such as the validity of the parameters themselves and the burden of inputting parameters. However, it is only possible to input a relatively simple parameter to make a judgment.

[0004] Therefore, the present invention is to automatically evaluate a subject to be evaluated based on an abstract element or a conceptual element, which had to be mainly performed by a human, by using a computer. It is an object of the present invention to provide an evaluation method using a time constant that can be performed.

[0005]

The evaluation method using the time constant according to the first aspect of the present invention for solving the above-mentioned problem has a large degree of change at first, and changes with time t. Setting an initial value A and a time constant τ for an evaluation object whose evaluation tends to decrease and the evaluation decreases, and using the A and τ, E (t) = A · exp (−
t / τ), calculating E (t) based on the equation
Estimating the evaluation of the evaluation object based on the magnitude of E (t).

The evaluation method using the time constant according to the second aspect of the present invention relates to an evaluation object in which the degree of change is large at first and the degree of change tends to decrease as time t elapses. Setting an initial value A and a time constant τ, and using the above A and τ, E (t) = A ·
Based on the formula {1-exp (-t / τ)}, E (t)
And a step of predicting the evaluation of the evaluation target based on the magnitude of E (t).

According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the evaluation method using the time constant, at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is set at a predetermined time. It is characterized by performing again. Claim 4
The evaluation method using the time constant according to the invention described in claim 1
Alternatively, in the invention described in Item 2, when E (t) becomes a constant value, at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is reset.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, there is provided an evaluation method using a time constant according to the first, second, third or fourth aspect of the present invention, wherein the evaluation object is an evaluation for a trader and the E (t ) Is used to determine whether to be a legitimate trader or a temporary trader based on the value of. According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, there is provided an evaluation method using a time constant according to the first, second, third or fourth aspect of the invention, wherein the evaluation target is the importance of the received e-mail. .

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, there is provided an evaluation method using a time constant according to the first, second, third or fourth aspect of the present invention, wherein the evaluation target is the popularity of a popular product, and
(t) is used to predict the purchase time of the popular product. The evaluation method using the time constant according to the invention of claim 8 is the invention according to claim 1, 2, 3, or 4, wherein the object to be evaluated is a performance of a predetermined device, and The method is used for determining an interval between inspections performed on the apparatus based on the inspection.

[0010]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. Before that, first, the time constants described in the following description will be briefly described. Time t
The functions E ₁ (t) and E ₂ (t) are expressed as follows: E ₁ (t) = A ₁ · exp (−t / τ) (1) E ₂ (t) = A ₂ · ｛1−exp (−t / Τ)｝ (2), τ is called a time constant. here,
A ₁ and A ₂ are constants. The function E ₁ (t) of the equation (1) is shown in FIG.
FIG. 1A shows the function E ₂ (t) of the equation (2) in FIG. 1B. In the following, A _{1 is referred} to as an initial value and A _{2 is referred} to as a saturation value. In particular, a curve according to the equation (1) as shown in FIG. 1A is also referred to as an attenuation curve. Equations (1) and (2)
The form of the equation often appears in an equation representing a transient phenomenon in an electric circuit.

The time constant τ has the following properties. FIG.
In (a), the curve of the function E ₁ (t) has t = nτ (n =
When tangents are drawn at (0, 1, 2,...), The time at which each tangent intersects the t axis is (n + 1) τ. Similarly, in FIG. 1B, the curve of the function E ₂ (t) has t = n
When tangents are drawn at τ (n = 0, 1, 2,...), the time at which each tangent intersects the straight line E ₂ (t) = A ₂ is (n + 1) τ
Becomes

In the attenuation curve shown in FIG. 1A, the function E ₁ (t) has an initial value A ₁ when t = 0.
1 / e (e = 2.71828 ... is the base of natural logarithm)
The time t at which the value of the function E ₁ (t) decays to τ is τ. In general, the time at which the current value of the function E ₁ (t) becomes 1 / e is the time τ after the current time. Next, an embodiment of the time constant evaluation method of the present invention using the time constant τ will be described. In the first embodiment, the time constant evaluation method of the present invention is applied to a case where a company or a trader entering or leaving a company is evaluated.

[0013] Many companies, especially large companies, deal with many traders in carrying out their business. These traders are divided into regular traders and temporary traders. There may be differences in treatment in terms of payment. The reason for dividing the traders in this way is that if all traders are registered and managed, for example, it is necessary to manage traders who have performed only one transaction over a long period of time. This is because the efficiency is reduced. As an example of the treatment difference, in the payment conditions, for example, payment may be made to a legally registered trader on the 25th of the month following the end of the month, and to a temporary trader in cash.

Conventionally, a system for automatically evaluating a trader using, for example, computer software has been used. However, in the method used in the conventional system, only factors that can be calculated simply, such as the transaction amount, the number of transactions, and the annual average of the transaction amount, are considered as factors for evaluation. It was left to the person in charge how to consider the time of occurrence, the frequency of transactions, the interval between transactions, etc. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the concept of a time constant is adopted to evaluate a trader.

FIGS. 2 (a) and 3 (a) are graphs showing the transaction amount with a business partner of a certain company every two months, and FIG. ,
FIG. 3A shows the transaction amount for the trader B. A very large amount of transaction occurs with the trader A in February, but the transaction amount in other months is almost zero. However, since the transaction amount in February is very large, the annual total amount and the transaction amount D _ave1, which is the average of the annual transaction amount, are considerably high.
On the other hand, although there are some fluctuations with the trader B depending on the month, the trade is changing at a substantially constant amount. Then, the annual total transaction amount of the trader B and the average transaction amount D _ave2 every month are smaller than the trader A.

In the case shown in FIGS. 2A and 3A,
When a trader is evaluated using a conventional method, the evaluation value of the trader A having a larger annual total transaction amount and the average monthly transaction amount is higher than that of the trader B. In the conventional method, for example, FIGS. 2 (a) and 3 (a)
As shown in, a threshold value D _th is set, and a trader whose average annual transaction amount is higher than this is registered as a regular trader in the next fiscal year, and a trader whose value is lower than D _th is registered. Was a temporary trader, dividing it into regular traders and temporary traders.

However, taking into account factors that are hardly apparent on the surface, such as credit and personal relationships in transactions, the transaction amount is high, but is more continuous than that of the trader A who has only made one transaction. In some cases, it is more reasonable to raise the evaluation of the trader B who has a business with the trader B. Thus, in the present embodiment, an evaluation method is used in which the evaluation value changes with time using the attenuation curve of FIG. 1A according to the equation (1). Figure 2 (b) and 3 (b) is a graph showing the temporal change in the evaluation value E _A and E _B, FIG. 2 (b) corresponds to the traders A, FIG. 3 (b ) Corresponds to the trader B described above. In these graphs, the horizontal axis represents time (month).

As described above, in February, there was a large transaction with the trader A, so in FIG.
As the evaluation value at that time, a value a proportional to this transaction amount
Provide _one. Since it is proportional to the transaction amount, a ₁ is a relatively large value. However, in this embodiment, the curve E _A1 representing the evaluation value E _A, the same decay curve as a function E ₁ in FIG. 1 (a). That is, the curve E _A1 is represented by the equation (1) (however, the initial value A ₁ is a ₁ , and the time constant τ is τ ₁ ), and is a curve similar to FIG. Since February, because there was no transactions between the traders A, the evaluation value E _A is,
The value gradually decreases from the initial value a ₁ with the passage of time, and becomes a very small value as of December.

On the other hand, there is a regular transaction with the trader B every two months. When there is transaction value proportional to the transaction amount (proportional constant is common to between traders A traders B) and is added to the evaluation value E _B In the meantime, the initial and the added value as a value, to apply the decay curve, gradually decreases the evaluation value E _B. For example, FIG.
As shown in the case of February, adds the value b ₁ that is proportional to the transaction amount of the month in the evaluation value so far, the added value, the initial value A ₁ of the formula (1) . The time constant τ is τ ₁ as in FIG. 2B. Thus curve E _B1 representing the evaluation value E _B, when reduced with the lapse of time according constant tau. Then, when another transaction occurs, a value b ₂ , b ₃ ,... Proportional to the transaction amount is added to the evaluation value at that time each time, and the value after the addition is used as an initial value and each curve is E _B2 , E _B3 , E _B4 , E _B5 , and E _B6 decrease over time according to the time constant τ. Therefore, the evaluation value E _B at the time of 12 months, compared to the evaluation value E _A traders A shown in FIG. 2 (b), has a much larger value.

As described above, there is a transaction with the trader A in which the transaction is concentrated in February, and the transaction amount is large, and the annual transaction amount is relatively large. However, there have been no transactions since then, so in practice it would seem reasonable to lower the rating. On the other hand, the transaction amount for each transaction with the trader B is relatively small, but the transaction is continuously generated every two months. It is. If the evaluation method using the time constant τ of the present embodiment is realized as a computer program, it is possible to automatically and reasonably evaluate a trader on a computer without bothering the person in charge. Become.

In the above description, the time constant τ has been described as being constant. However, it is also possible to create a program so that the time constant itself changes automatically according to the amount of the transaction amount. For example, as shown in FIG. 2 (a), when the transaction amount in February is very large, accordingly, but also increases the evaluation value E _A as the initial value, since the evaluation value is not easily reduced It is thought that some problems may occur. In such a case, if there is a transaction exceeding a certain amount, the time constant may be reduced accordingly, and the evaluation value may be reduced more quickly.

In the above description, a trader is evaluated only based on the size of the transaction amount. However, when evaluating a trader based on the details of the transaction, for example, the delivery date and the quality of the delivered goods, the time and the cost may be reduced. An evaluation method in which the evaluation value changes over time using a constant can be used. As an example, suppose that, for example, a company once did not meet the delivery date. In this case, the evaluation at that time must be reduced. However, it is not reasonable to make the low rating constant with a single failure. Therefore, set an appropriate time constant,
If the evaluation is gradually restored using the equation (2) as shown in FIG. 2, a more rational evaluation can be made.

Next, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described. With the development of information communication equipment such as a personal computer and information communication infrastructure such as the Internet and personal computer communication, the use of electronic mail (hereinafter referred to as "e-mail") as one of communication tools is rapidly expanding. E-mail usage is expected to increase in the future, which may result in a large number of e-mails being intensively sent to a particular person. The problem is that if you receive a lot of e-mails, it takes a lot of effort for the recipient to check all e-mails.
It's already happening as a real problem.

Therefore, in the present embodiment, by applying the evaluation method using the time constant of the present invention, the evaluation of the importance of the e-mail is automatically performed with the passage of time in a manner that meets the needs of the recipient. By making corrections and receiving the e-mails, the e-mails are read in order from the e-mail with the highest rating after the correction, so that the e-mails with higher importance and urgency can be automatically read first. .

On the other hand, it is sometimes inconvenient that the evaluation once given is always constant. For example, even if a person who sent a lot of important emails at a certain time was given a high rating, if the rating is kept high, even if the frequency of sending important emails decreases, the If the evaluation does not change, it does not fit the real situation. Also, because we sent a lot of less important emails for a period of time, even if you set a low rating, the past low rating does not change even after you start sending important emails after that, There's a problem.

When sending an e-mail using a computer, some e-mail software can specify the degree of urgency as an indication that the other party wants to read it immediately. However, the designation of the urgency is based on the judgment of the sender, and does not always coincide with the judgment of the receiver. The same applies to the importance of contents. E-mails with such designations are sent frequently, but in fact, for senders whose urgency and importance are low, it is necessary to lower the evaluation of e-mails from the sender. It is reasonable.

FIG. 4 shows an evaluation of an e-mail sent from a specific person, that is, an evaluation of how important the person is as a person who sends an e-mail.
This is a case where the above-mentioned decay curve is applied to change over time. In this case, when the person sends an e-mail for the _first time (t ₁ ), it is set in advance.
An initial value c ₁ and a time constant τ are specified as setting values for a person who has sent an e-mail for the first time. Note that the initial value c ₁ , the time constant τ, or the added value c ₂ described later is expressed by E
An e-mail software program may be designed so that each value can be input to a predetermined window of the CRT screen each time the e-mail is read.

When an e-mail is sent from a first person at time t ₁ in FIG. 4, the set initial value c ₁ is given as an evaluation value. This evaluation value gradually decreases according to the decay curve of the time constant τ. However, at time t ₂ , when an e-mail is received again from the same person, a certain value c is then obtained.
₂ is added to the evaluation value at that time, and this added value is used as the initial value of the attenuation curve therefrom. When such processing is performed, E-mails from people who frequently send e-mails
The higher the email, the higher the evaluation value.

Conversely, in FIG. 4, the e-mail has not been sent for a while after t ₄ , so that the evaluation value gradually decreases. As described above, when no e-mail is sent for a while, the time constant τ is automatically shortened.
That is, t ₅ frequent E-mail again later is begin sent, when since the constant τ is shortened, the way of attenuation of the evaluation value is steeper than before as shown in FIG.

However, some of the e-mails that are regularly sent frequently are relatively insignificant, such as in-house newsletters. The recipient can know in advance from the e-mail address etc. that it is an in-house newsletter. In such a case, the value of the initial value c ₁ and the subsequent added value c ₂ may be reduced, For example, the evaluation value can be forcibly reduced by reducing the constant τ so that the evaluation value can be read when time is available. In this way, the contents of the evaluation can be flexibly customized on the recipient side according to the individual situation using the method.

Some e-mails, such as direct mails for sales purposes, abuse the urgent / urgent designation in order to attract the attention of the recipient. In such a case, the e-mail of the person can be evaluated using the change represented by the above-mentioned equation (2), that is, the curve showing the change as shown in FIG. FIG.
Shows an example in which the evaluation is reduced every time an e-mail is received.

At time t ₁ in FIG. 5, if an unnecessary direct mail that is neither urgent nor urgent is sent as an e-mail, first, a negative initial value d ₁ and an appropriate time constant τ are given. Some direct mail from the same person who sent unwanted direct mail in the past is worth reading. Therefore, it is not appropriate to leave the evaluation low. Therefore,
As shown in FIG. 5, when an e-mail is not sent to a specific person for a certain period of time, the evaluation of the e-mail from that person is gradually recovered so that the evaluation becomes closer to the medium evaluation. . The evaluation value is changed by a curve according to the equation (2) as shown in FIG. In this way, E from that person
You can avoid the situation where you never read mail. However, at time t _2, the even E-mail that has been transmitted next, if that is still unnecessary direct mail, the addition value d ₂ as shown in FIG. 5, further lowering the evaluation.

Further, some e-mails send only e-mails that are completely uninteresting and unnecessary. For such a person, as shown in FIG. 6, the evaluation value (initial value e ₁ ) is set low when the e-mail arrives, and the time constant τ is made extremely long. As a result, the evaluation value will not recover to the middle level until a considerable period has elapsed.

On the other hand, for those who regularly send useful information as e-mail, for example, as shown in FIG.
At the time point t ₁ when the e-mail is received, the initial value f ₁ is assigned, and thereafter, at t ₂ , t ₃ , t ₄ ,..., The added values f ₂ , f ₃ , f ₄ ,. . The time constant τ is a relatively long constant value. In this way, the e-mail from such a person is ranked higher in the evaluation rank for a long period of time, so that the e-mail from that person can be surely read.

Further, there are senders who send information by e-mail at a low frequency, but the content of the information is extremely important. As an example, an e-mail from the upper level of the company (for example, the president) corresponds thereto. As shown in FIG. 8, with respect to the e-mail from such a partner, the initial value g ₁ is set at t ₁ when the e-mail is received _first , and the initial value g ₁ is set at t _{2 when the} e-mail is received next time, as shown in FIG. , The addition value g ₂ is set to be higher, and the time constant is set longer. Thus, for example, even after returning from a long-term business trip, an e-mail from an important person can be reliably read.

Next, a third embodiment of the present invention will be described. When retailers purchase popular products such as books, music CDs, videos, and game software, in order to prevent unnecessary inventory, they predict the degree of sales to some extent, that is, change in popularity, and sell products. I have to buy it. Since the sales of goods fluctuate due to various factors, it is difficult to accurately predict the sales over a long period of time. However, the fact that even popular items initially decline in popularity after a certain period of time is a characteristic common to all popular products. The difference is the initial degree of popularity and how long it will decline. Therefore, the method using the time constant of the present invention can be applied to such sales prediction.

That is, the initial popularity level is set as an initial value, the period during which the popularity estimated from past results is maintained is set as a time constant τ, and the attenuation curve is calculated by a computer. , Music CDs, videos,
With regard to popular products such as game software, it is possible to automatically predict the sales over a long period of time and the range of fluctuations in sales.

FIG. 9 shows an evaluation method of the present embodiment in which the present invention is applied to the evaluation of popular products such as books and music CDs. In the figure, t ₁ , t ₂ , t ₃ , t ₄ , t
₅ represents the purchase time of the product. However, instead of these procurement periods, inventory periods may be used. As shown in FIG. 9, stocking for the first time its products at t _1. At this time, popular because it is initially released is believed to be high, imparts h ₁ of relatively increased as the initial value. However, in the case of popular products, it is considered that the degree of decrease in popularity is higher as soon as the product is released, so a shorter value is set as the time constant τ. As a result, the decay curve at the time of release is
Changes rapidly.

Thereafter, the amount of stock from the next time is determined based on the actual sales and stock. Generally, twice,
As the purchase is repeated three times, the amount of arrival tends to decrease. Based on this arrival amount, the added value h ₂ ,
h _3, to set h _4, h ₅ each time a. On the other hand, the duration of sales is considered to be longer as the period from the release time becomes longer, so that the time constant τ becomes longer at the time of later purchase.
Lengthen. Further, when sales are stagnant and the frequency of purchasing is reduced, the time constant is shortened again to lower the evaluation rank of the product.

If the evaluation value is obtained by such a method, it is possible to predict the sales to some extent in the future.
If this result is reflected in the purchase amount, it is possible to minimize unnecessary inventory. In a retail store of a popular product such as a CD shop, which product is displayed in the most prominent place of the store is important for business. Therefore, the evaluation result obtained as described above can be used for displaying a product.

FIG. 10 shows a book, a music CD,
Although an embodiment is shown in which the method of the present invention is applied to evaluation of popular products such as videos and game software,
What is different from FIG. 9 is that so-called long-run products, which have been repeatedly purchased over a long period of time, are evaluated. For such products whose popularity has been maintained for a long period of time, past results should be taken into account when setting the time constant. Therefore, t ₁ , t ₂ ,
A relatively long time constant τ is set when purchasing is performed at t ₃ and t ₄ . The addition value i is constant. As a result, the attenuation curve of the evaluation value becomes gentle, and the high evaluation is maintained over a long period of time. The ratings given in this way faithfully reflect the actual situation in which popularity is long-lasting.

Next, a fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described. In a factory or the like that manufactures a certain product, it may be necessary to periodically inspect a manufacturing apparatus of the product in order to keep the quality of the product constant. In particular,
A reference signal generator used when manufacturing a VTR corresponds to this. In the present embodiment, the evaluation method using the time constant according to the present invention is applied in order to obtain an objective guideline for determining the interval between inspections performed on the manufacturing apparatus.

It is desirable from the point of quality control that the inspection is repeated at a certain frequency for a while, even if the result is good and the first time the inspection is performed on the manufacturing apparatus. In general, the interval between inspections may be gradually increased if the test is passed every time the inspection is performed. Conversely, if rejection occurs frequently, the interval between inspections must be shortened. Must.

FIG. 11 shows an example of a case in which when a test is passed with good results every time an inspection is to be performed next. In the figure, t = 0 indicates the time when a new manufacturing apparatus is installed, t ₁ and t ₂ indicate the time when the inspection was performed in the past, and t ₃ indicates the time when the inspection should be performed next. The reference line indicates a reference value at which the inspection must be performed if the evaluation value decreases to this point.

[0045] In the case of the manufacturing apparatus, such as the case of FIG. 11, as described above, the period from when the installed device (t = 0) to time t ₁ for performing first test need to relatively short There is. Therefore, when you decide to a certain value j ₁ in the initial value of the evaluation value, the evaluation value sets the time constant τ of the way (1) period to decrease relatively short to the reference value.
If the test at t ₁ passes, the additional value j ₂ is added to the evaluation value at t ₁ so that the next initial value becomes equal to j _1, and the time constant τ is further lengthened a little, and the next test time t
Make the period up to ₂ slightly longer. If there was a pass the results of testing in t _2, then to calculate whether the time t ₃ to inspect a what time is the added value to the evaluation value at _{t 2 j 3 (= j 2} ) Is added, the time constant is made a little longer, and a period until the evaluation value decreases to the reference value is calculated, whereby t ₃ is determined. In this way, by predicting the inspection time based on the past progress, an objective guide is given when determining the next inspection time.

FIG. 12 also shows an example in which the present invention is applied to the case of determining the inspection time of the manufacturing apparatus. Contrary to the case of FIG. 11, the inspection is rejected every time, and adjustment is required each time. It is when it becomes. At the beginning of the installation of the manufacturing apparatus, it is considered that the quality was the same as the quality of the manufacturing apparatus in the case of FIG. 11, so the initial value and the initial time constant were the same as in FIG. period until t ₁ for performing first test is the same as in FIG. 11. However, if the adjustments made fail the test at t ₁ is then time to time t ₂ should inspected (t ₂ -t
₁₎ it should be shorter than t _1. Therefore, the time constant τ is slightly reduced. Similarly, if the rejection is made at t ₂ and t ₃ , the time constant τ is gradually shortened each time. Then, the time constant τ is set so that the period up to the next inspection time t ₄ is further reduced.
In this way, it is possible to obtain an objective guideline for determining the next inspection time when the rejection of the inspection continues.

In the cases shown in FIGS. 11 and 12, the added value j is set so that the initial value of each attenuation curve becomes equal at each inspection.
₂ , j ₃ and j ₄ were set. However, not only the time constant τ, but also the initial value of the attenuation curve may be changed according to the result of the inspection. Further, contrary to FIGS. 11 and 12, the time constant τ may be kept constant, and the added value may be set so that only the initial value of the attenuation curve after each inspection changes.

FIG. 13 shows each attenuation curve based on the inspection result.
Addition value and time so that the initial value of the line and the time constant τ change
This is a case where a constant τ is set. Referring to FIG.
When the device is installed (t = 0), the initial value is k₁It is. Next
T₁If the test result is passed in, the time constant τ
Is slightly longer, and the initial value of the next decay curve is k ₁
So that the sum k_TwoIs added to the evaluation value
You. Thereafter, similarly, t _Two, T_Three, The time constant τ is
With a little longer, the initial value is
Each addition value k is set to be slightly larger_Three, K_FourSet
is there.

Next, the recording medium of the present invention will be described. The evaluation method using the time constant according to the present invention can be easily realized as a computer program. That is, a function for setting the above initial value, added value, and time constant τ, and E (t) = A · exp (−t / τ) or E
(t) = A · {1−exp (−t / τ)} The function of calculating E (t) based on the equation, and the evaluation of the evaluation target is performed based on the magnitude of E (t). The function of predicting can be realized as a computer program. Therefore, a computer-readable recording medium on which such a computer program is recorded also falls within the scope of the present invention. The recording medium is a floppy disk, CD-
ROMs, magneto-optical disks, magnetic tapes, semiconductor storage devices, and the like are included.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and various changes can be made within the scope of the invention. There are various cases to which the present invention can be applied in addition to the above embodiments. For example, in a hospital, when a nurse looks around a patient, a patient whose condition is stable may have a longer interval, but a patient whose condition is unstable needs to look around frequently. In this case, since a limited number of nurses are in charge of a large number of patients, it is desirable to determine the time interval to look around according to the patient's condition so that the patient can look around efficiently. Therefore, if the patient's condition, stability, etc. are input as parameters and the present invention is applied, the time interval around the patient can be automatically determined based on objective evaluation.

Further, since the scholastic ability of the student or the student is gradually changed, when the scholastic ability of the student or the student at the school or the educational institution is determined, it is not determined by a single test but over a long period of time. It is desirable to judge the overall academic ability. In such a case, the present invention is useful. In addition, when kanji conversion software in a word processor decides candidates for kanji to be converted, if a certain reading is once converted to a certain kanji, it will be converted to that kanji again even after a certain period (or number of times) has elapsed. If there is no character, the present invention can be applied to the case where the priority of the kanji is lowered.

Further, when judging the soundness of a company such as an insurance company or a bank, or a state or a local government,
The present invention can be applied. In addition, for example,
Customer management of a company, complaint management for products from customers, personnel evaluation in a company, and the like are also considered as application examples of the present invention. As described above, the present invention can be widely applied to a case where the evaluation should be gradually changed with time.

[0053]

As described above, according to the present invention,
Initially, the degree of change is large, and the degree of change tends to decrease as time t elapses. For an evaluation object whose evaluation decreases or increases, the initial value A and the time constant τ
And the equation E (t) = A.exp (-t / τ),
Alternatively, E (t) is calculated based on the formula of E (t) = A ｛{1-exp (−t / τ)}, and the evaluation of the evaluation target is predicted based on the magnitude of E (t). Therefore, it is possible to evaluate objectively compared to human evaluation.Since the evaluation method is simple, it is easy to evaluate the evaluation target based on abstract or conceptual elements. It is possible to realize the automatic evaluation by

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a time constant τ,
(A) is a function of E ₁ (t) = A ₁ · exp (−t / τ), and (b) is a function of E ₂ (t) = A ₂ · ｛1-exp (−t / τ).
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a function of (τ)｝.

FIG. 2A is a graph showing a monthly transaction amount of a certain company traded with a trader A in the first embodiment, and FIG. It is the figure which showed a mode that the evaluation value with respect to the trader A changed with progress of time as a graph.

FIG. 3A is a graph showing monthly transaction amounts of a certain company traded with a trader B in the first embodiment, and FIG. 3B is a graph showing a decay curve using a decay curve; It is the figure which showed a mode that the evaluation value with respect to the trader B changed with progress of time as a graph.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing how an evaluation of an e-mail sent from a specific person changes with time in one embodiment in a second embodiment.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a graph of evaluation values showing a case where the evaluation is lowered every time an e-mail is received in the second embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a graph showing a change in an evaluation value for a person who sends only an e-mail that the recipient is not interested in or does not need at all in the second embodiment.

FIG. 7 is a graph showing a change of an evaluation value for a person who periodically sends useful information as an e-mail in the second embodiment.

FIG. 8 is a graph showing a change in an evaluation value with respect to a sender indicating that the frequency of sending information by e-mail is low, but the content of the information is extremely important in the second embodiment. .

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an evaluation method of an embodiment in which the present invention is applied to evaluation of popular products such as books and music CDs in the third embodiment.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an evaluation method of an embodiment in which the present invention is applied to evaluation of so-called long-run products in the third embodiment.

FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a change in evaluation for calculating when to perform a test next when a good result is passed for each test in the fourth embodiment. .

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a fourth embodiment in which a test is rejected each time and adjustment is required each time;
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a change in evaluation for calculating when to perform an inspection.

FIG. 13 In the fourth embodiment, an addition value and a time constant τ are set so that an initial value and a time constant τ of each decay curve change based on a result of the test, and then the test should be performed. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a change in evaluation for calculating the difference.

Claims (12)

[Claims] 1. A step of setting an initial value A and a time constant τ for an evaluation object in which the degree of change is initially large and the degree of change tends to decrease as time t elapses and the evaluation decreases. And τ, E (t) = A · exp (−t /
τ), a step of calculating E (t) based on the equation; and a step of predicting the evaluation of the evaluation object based on the magnitude of E (t). Evaluation method using. 2. A step of setting an initial value A and a time constant τ for an evaluation target whose degree of change is initially large and whose evaluation tends to be reduced as the time t elapses and whose degree of change tends to decrease; And τ, E (t) = A · ｛1-exp (−
t / τ)｝, and a step of predicting the evaluation of the evaluation target based on the magnitude of E (t). Evaluation method using a time constant. 3. The evaluation method using a time constant according to claim 1, wherein at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is reset at a predetermined time. 4. When E (t) becomes a constant value,
3. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is reset. 5. The evaluation object is an evaluation for a trader, and is used to determine whether to be a regular trader or a temporary trader based on the value of E (t). An evaluation method using the time constant according to claim 1, 2, 3, or 4. 6. The evaluation method using a time constant according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation target is the importance of the received e-mail. 7. The evaluation target is a popularity of a popular product, and is used for predicting a purchase time of the popular product based on the E (t). Evaluation method using the stated time constant. 8. The apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation target is a performance of a predetermined apparatus, and is used for determining an interval between inspections performed on the apparatus based on the E (t). Evaluation method using the time constant described in 2, 3, or 4. 9. The computer has a function of setting an initial value A and a time constant τ for an evaluation object whose evaluation degree is initially low and whose evaluation degree tends to decrease as time t elapses. Using the above A and τ, E (t) = A · exp (−t /
τ), a function of calculating E (t) based on an equation, and a function of predicting the evaluation of the evaluation target based on the magnitude of E (t). A readable recording medium. 10. A computer has a function of setting an initial value A and a time constant τ for an evaluation target whose evaluation is increasing at first with a large degree of change and a tendency of decreasing with time t. Using the above A and τ, E (t) = A · ｛1-exp (−
t / τ)｝, a function of calculating E (t) based on the expression, and a function of predicting the evaluation of the evaluation target based on the magnitude of E (t). A computer-readable recording medium that has been recorded. 11. The computer-readable recording medium according to claim 9, wherein at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is reset at a predetermined time. 12. The computer according to claim 9, wherein at least one of the initial value A and the time constant τ is reset when the E (t) becomes a constant value. A readable recording medium.