JPH0746312A - Method for estimating communications service interruption time - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To provide a communications service interruption time forecasting method for forecasting interruption time by using restricted failure history. CONSTITUTION:Processing up to failure repairment is sorted in each work (S1), practical failure data are inputted by using work which does not compete with other work in timing is set up as an interruption time constituting element (S2), time distribution data are integrated in each interruption time constituting element (S3), circuit constitution between plural terminals in a network is patterned (S4), the failure repairing procedure of a link and a node constituting a line is described by the array of interruption time constituting elements (S5), the time distribution of elements is added based upon the failure repairing procedure to calculate interruption time (S6), and the interruption time is forecasted (S7).

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a communication service interruption time prediction method, and more particularly, it has a history of failure occurrence in a network providing communication services and has a test function dividing function at the time of failure occurrence. The present invention relates to a communication service interruption time prediction method for predicting an interruption time (failure recovery expected time) of a line between terminals that can be repaired.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In the provision of communication services, there is a strong demand for notification of the interruption time of how long it cannot be used when a failure occurs, and it is also necessary to calculate the interruption time when a failure occurs in a network providing communication services. .

Conventionally, a failure history regarding the occurrence of a failure is stored, and cases of the same line configuration, the same device, and the same failure state are picked up from the failure history and the interruption time is estimated.

[0004]

However, in the above-mentioned conventional technique, the interruption time can be estimated from the failure history for the case of the same line configuration, the same device, and the same failure state, but all possible interruptions can occur. For a failure, there is a problem in that it is impossible to predict the interruption time from the occurrence of the failure to the recovery of the failure.

Although there is a method for calculating the downtime for each device or medium, there is no method for predicting the interruption time including the test time and the division time in the entire communication service network.

The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and solves the above-mentioned problems of the prior art, and in a network that provides communication services, communication service interruption for predicting interruption time by utilizing a limited failure history. The purpose is to provide a time prediction method.

[0007]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the principle of the present invention. The present invention classifies the processing from failure reception to failure repair into work units (step 1), inputs work data that is not affected by other work in terms of time, and inputs actual failure data. (Step 2), data of time distribution is accumulated for each interruption time component unit (Step 3), and a line configuration between terminals in the network that provides communication services is patterned (Step 4) to configure a line. Describe the failure repair procedure for the link and node in the sequence of the interruption time components (step 5), calculate the interruption time by stacking the time distribution of the elements based on the failure repair procedure (step 6), and predict the interruption time. (Step 7).

[0008]

According to the present invention, in a network that provides communication services, time distributions of interruption time components are integrated from a limited failure history, and links and nodes are classified into test units of line configurations and processing units for fault repair. Then, the line configuration is expressed by classified links and nodes, and the failure repair procedure of the line configuration is expressed as a scenario by arranging the interruption time components,
By stacking (summing) the time distributions of the downtime components according to this scenario, the downtime from failure occurrence to failure repair is predicted.

[0009]

Embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining an outline of service interruption time prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention.

First, in the time distribution generating process a, each work which is not time-constrained from other works is selected as a discontinuation time component from a series of works from failure acceptance to failure repair,
The failure data 100 is assigned to each component (work).

The time required for the work for each interruption time component is accumulated in the time distribution data file 110 for each interruption time component unit.

Next, in the scenario generation process b, a pattern code forming a line is input, and the pattern code and the link and node of the line corresponding to the code are input. Here, Scenario 1 in which the failure repair procedure is described by arranging the interruption time components for each line configuration pattern and failure location unit
Generate 30.

The interruption time calculation processing c calculates the interruption time for each scenario unit by superposing the data of the time distribution of the interruption time constituents based on the arrangement of the interruption time constituents individually described in the scenario 130. And store it in the interruption time data file.

In the interruption time prediction process d, the line configuration pattern code and the received failure status are input, and the related interruption time is determined based on the failure status.
By searching from 0 and performing weighting, the interruption time prediction result is output.

FIG. 3 shows a circuit configuration pattern notation method of a network that provides a communication service for failure analysis according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The line configuration shown in FIG.
2 is divided by two dividing points 2-1 and 2-2, 2
It is divided into one terminal section 3-1 and 3-3 and a transmission section 3-2.

The isolation points of the isolation points 2-1 and 2-2 are locations at which the isolation of the failure is first performed when the failure occurs, and the areas where the test and the failure repair engineer are on standby and can immediately respond when the failure occurs. Is. It also includes the point that the remote control has the same function. The nodes and links that compose the section delimited by the division points are patterned by a failure repair or test method.

For example, the patterning is performed in consideration of the presence / absence of a remote test function, the presence / absence of a person in charge of testing and a person in charge of repair, the type of device, and the like.

The example of FIG. 3 shows the link type and node type in the low speed leased line service. Each terminal section and transmission section are described by the link type and node type. The pattern code is attached to different units, and the configuration of the entire line is described by the pattern code of item 3. In the case of the figure, it is assumed that the terminal section 3-1 corresponds to "O", the transmission section 3-2 corresponds to "P", and the terminal section 3-3 corresponds to "Q".

In FIG. 3, "A" is a subscriber section,
“B” is a relay metal section, “C” is a local transmission section,
“D1” indicates an analog transmission section, and “D2” indicates a digital transmission section.

Further, in FIG. 3, "V" indicates a connection point, and indicates a state in which a person having a test and repair technique is not at the installation site. “∇” indicates a multiplexing device, and indicates a state in which no person having testing and repairing skills is at the installation site. The "▲" has both a multiplexing device and a remote testing device. “•” indicates that there is a technician who is not an expert in testing and repairing, but who can perform simple repairing and testing at the installation site. “O” is a cut-off point, and the place where the failure is cut off first, and the person who performs the test and the repair are waiting. Alternatively, the same processing can be performed remotely, and a multiplexing device, a connection point, and a test device are installed at this location. “□” represents a customer terminal.

In FIG. 3A showing the pattern code and terminal configuration, the line configuration of the terminal section for pattern code 1 indicates that the subscriber section is between the customer terminal and the dividing point.

The line configuration of the terminal section for the pattern code 2 has a simple repair, although not a specialist in testing and repair, at the connection point between the relay metal section B and the subscriber section A between the customer terminal and the dividing point. There is a technician who can do the test at the installation site.

The line configuration of the terminal section for the pattern code 3 is such that a multiplexer is installed between the customer terminal and the dividing point and between the local transmission section C and the subscriber section A. Although it is not an expert, it has a technician at the installation site who can perform simple repairs and tests.

Regarding the line configuration of the terminal section for the pattern code 4, the local transmission section C, the relay metal section B and the subscriber section A exist between the customer and the dividing point, and the local transmission section C and the relay metal section exist. A multiplexer and a remote testing device are installed between B and B, and there is a connection point between the relay metal section B and the subscriber section A where no person has testing and repairing skills.

In FIG. 3B, which shows the line configuration of the pattern code and the transmission path section, the pattern code 1 indicates an analog transmission section between the dividing points, and the pattern code 2 indicates the digital type between the dividing points. Shows the transmission section of.

For example, the configuration of the entire line is "O: P: Q".
= “1: 1: 4”, the terminal section 3-1
Indicates that the pattern code is "1" and that "a subscriber section is between the customer and the dividing point".
Since the pattern code of the transmission section 3-2 is "1", this transmission section is an "analog transmission section".
Is shown. Further, since the pattern code of the terminal section 3-3 is "4", "the local transmission section C, the relay metal section B and the subscriber section A exist between the customer and the dividing point, and A multiplexer and a remote test device are installed between the transmission section C and the relay section B, and between the relay section B and the subscriber section A.
There is a connection point where no one has testing and repair skills. "

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing of the interruption time predicting method according to the embodiment of the present invention. A method of predicting the service interruption time (probable failure recovery time) when a failure occurs in a node or link of the line configuration of the network providing the communication service shown in FIG. 3 will be described.

In the process 20, the actual failure data is input (step 20-21), and the time distribution data is tabulated from the failure data in units of interruption time components. A work that is independent from a series of work from the acceptance of a failure report to the repair and is not affected by other work in terms of time is defined as one interruption time component. The input failure data is allocated to each constituent element, and the time distribution data 23 is generated for each interruption time constituent element.

The process 10 in the figure is a process for calculating the interruption time. The line configuration pattern code of FIG. 3 and its line configuration are input to the system (step 10-11). In the case where each of the links and nodes configuring the pattern for each line configuration pattern has a failure, the interruption time components are arranged according to the failure processing procedure to generate one scenario as shown in FIG. 6 (steps 10-12). ). The time distribution data 23 corresponding to the element is taken out from the interruption time component name in the failure processing procedure described in the scenario,
By stacking, the interruption time can be predicted for each scenario (step 10-13).

Discontinuation time component f and discontinuation time component g
And f (t) and g (t) are the respective probability densities of the required work time t, the probability density h (z) of the required time obtained by superposing these elements is

[0032]

[Equation 1]

Is given by By this stacking method,
Calculate the suspension time.

Process 30 shows an example of a predictive utilization system when a failure occurs. When a failure occurs, the line configuration pattern code and failure status are input to the system. The line configuration pattern code is used to calculate the predicted value of the interruption time when one of the link and the node in the line configuration is out of order. The probability of occurrence of a link or node failure in the circuit configuration pattern is calculated from past data based on the failure status, the one with the highest probability of occurrence is emphasized, and the predicted interruption time is output.

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining a method of allocating a failure time component from one piece of failure data according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The low speed leased line service allocated to the interruption time component 50 from one piece of the fault data 40 shown in the figure will be described. When the interruption time component 50 is classified, a test-related element by a metal section test, a primary test, a test by a remote control device, etc., a movement-related element indicating that a node has been dispatched, a subscriber section repair, a relay metal section repair, and transmission. There are failure repair-related elements such as road section digital line partial repair.

By inputting a plurality of execution failure data 40, the time distribution data 23 for each interruption time component unit is accumulated.

FIG. 6 shows the contents of a scenario according to an embodiment of the present invention. The scenario has a line configuration pattern code and a failure section unit, and the failure repair procedure is the interruption time component 50.
It is written in the order of.

The scenario shown in the figure is composed of a line pattern code, a search item of a failure section, and data of a failure repair procedure as search items. The failure repair procedure in the example of the figure describes a procedure in which a primary test is first performed, and then a node n is dispatched to repair the subscriber section.

The above processing will be specifically described below.

First, in the time distribution generation processing a, when the actual failure data 40 is input, the failure data 40 has a failure condition of "communication impossible", and it is necessary for the "primary test" of the work items. It is assumed that the time is 10 minutes, the time required for “mobilization” is 30 minutes, and the time required for repairing the subscriber section is 20 minutes. By inputting a plurality of such failure data 40, time distribution data for each interruption time component unit is obtained. For example, data about how much time is required for the distribution of the time required for the primary test is obtained.

Next, in the scenario generation processing b, the line configuration pattern code as shown in FIG. 3 is input, and a failure repair procedure is obtained for each failure point. Assuming that the line configuration pattern code “1: 1: 4” and the fault section A section are input, the time distribution data file 110 for each interruption time element unit using this line pattern code and section as search items.
To search. Corresponding item is time distribution data file 1
If it exists in 10, the scenario 60 of primary test → mobilization → subscriber section repair can be obtained as the failure repair procedure.

Further, the interruption time calculation process c calculates the sum of the data of the time distribution of the interruption time constituent elements based on the arrangement of the elements described in each scenario 60. For example,
If the primary test has an average time distribution of 10 minutes, mobilization has an average time distribution of 30 minutes, and subscriber section repair has an average time distribution of 20 minutes, the total interruption time for repairing the failure is 1 on average.
It becomes a time distribution of time. In this way, the interruption time is calculated for each scenario and stored in the interruption time data file 140.

Finally, in the interruption time prediction process d, when the failure status and the line configuration pattern code are input, the interruption time data file 140 is searched according to the line configuration pattern code and the failure status to obtain the corresponding interruption time. , The interruption time is predicted by performing the weighting process.

[0045]

As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to predict the interruption time in a network which provides a communication service having a limited failure history. By patterning the line configuration in consideration of testing and failure repair processing, it is possible to aggregate interruption time prediction calculations.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining the principle of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining an outline of service interruption time prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a notation method of a line configuration pattern of a network that provides a communication service for failure analysis according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining a process of a suspension time prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining a method of allocating failure time components from one piece of failure data according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing contents of a scenario according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[Explanation of Codes] 1-1, 1-2 Terminals 2-1 and 2-2 Separation Point 3-1 and 3-3 Terminal Section 3-2 Transmission Section 40, 100 Failure Data 50 Interruption Time Related Components 60 Scenario 110 Time analysis data for each interruption time element 120 Circuit configuration data 130 Scenario 140 Interruption time data file 150 Circuit configuration pattern code / fault condition

Claims (1)

[Claims] 1. A process from failure acceptance to failure repair is classified into work units, work that is not temporally affected by other work is used as a discontinuation time component, and the interruption time is calculated using actual failure data. Data of the time distribution is taken for each component, the line configuration between terminals in the network that provides communication services is patterned, and the failure repair procedures for the links and nodes that make up the line are arranged in a sequence of the interruption time components. A communication service interruption time prediction method, characterized in that the interruption time is predicted by stacking time distributions of elements based on the description of the failure repair procedure.