JPH07205574A - Sales forecast sheet for newly-establizhed store - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To provide a sales forecast sheet for a newly-established store to be used for a theoretical and sure sales forecast system of the established store based on scientific data. CONSTITUTION:Columns 5-1 through 5-6 are provided for writing investigated data of each of evaluation items such as evaluation of field of view, evaluation of traffic line, market scale, quality of commercial area, building evaluation, and competitive evaluation. Columns 6-1 through 6-6 are provided for writing coefficients of the above-mentioned items adjacently to the investigated data columns 5-1 through 5-6. Further, adjacently to the coefficient columns 6-1 through 6-6, calculation columns 7-1 through 7-6 are provided for writing numerical values obtained by multiplication of the numerical values in the investigated data columns 5-1 through 5-6 and the numerical values in the coefficient columns 6-1 through 6-6. At the lower part of the calculation columns 7-1 through 7-6, a forecast sales column 9 is provided for writing a total value obtained by summing up the numerical values in the calculation columns. By the numerical value to be written in the forecast sales column 9, a success rate o establishment of a store can be determined and recognized.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a sales forecast sheet for a new store, and more specifically, it determines whether or not the store will be successfully installed based on the sales forecast assuming that the store is installed at a certain place. Sales forecast sheet for new stores

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, when setting up a store at a certain place,
The judgment of the success rate was made based on the feeling and experience of the person. In other words, when you try to open a store in a certain area and find a candidate for opening a store, it is a normal management consultant to decide whether to open the store at that location and succeed, or in other words, to make a profit. Experts, etc. did some research on the surrounding conditions of the store location, and finally judged it based on their feelings and experience.

[0003]

However, in the determination of the success rate of opening a store based on such feelings and experiences, its accuracy is very low, and it is generally said that only three successful stores can be installed in 1000 stores. It is about. Therefore, opening a store that looks closely at the store profitability standard is pressing,
It was desired to introduce highly accurate sales forecasts by introducing a scientific method using numerical values and data.

The object of the present invention is to solve the above-mentioned conventional problems, and is based on scientific data, and the sales of a new store used for a theoretical and reliable sales forecasting system of a store to be opened. To provide a forecast sheet.

[0005]

[Means for Solving the Problems] The present invention is a sales forecast sheet for a new store, which has the following configuration in order to achieve the above-mentioned technical problems. That is, the new store sales forecast sheet of the present invention is provided with a plurality of columns for entering survey data for each of a plurality of location determination evaluation items, and the coefficient for each location determination evaluation item is provided adjacent to each survey data entry column. A calculation column is provided in which a column for entry is provided, and a value obtained as a result of multiplying the value in the survey data entry column and the value in the coefficient entry column in each location determination evaluation item is adjacent to the coefficient entry column. A forecast sales column is provided below the calculation column to enter the total value of the calculation columns, and the success rate of store installation can be determined and recognized by the value entered in the forecast sales column. Is characterized by.

Further, the new store sales forecast sheet of the present invention forms an evaluation table in which the evaluation item frame, the survey data frame and the coefficient frame are provided in three rows, and the evaluation item frame in the first column of the evaluation table is formed. The evaluation items for location determination for urban location-dependent stores are visibility evaluation, flow line evaluation, market size, quality of commercial area, building evaluation and competitiveness evaluation. The evaluation data are formed in the second and third columns of the evaluation table, and the numerical data entry columns are formed in the survey data frames and the coefficient frames of the third column in correspondence with the respective evaluation item name columns of the first column. In the same row as each evaluation item name column, a calculation column for entering the numerical value of the result obtained by multiplying the numerical value entered in each numerical entry column in the survey data frame by the numerical value in each numerical entry column in the coefficient frame is formed Then, add up the numerical values of each calculation column at the bottom of each calculation column. Was provided estimated sales column to fill the total value, characterized by being capable determines recognize the success rate of the shop installed by a number is entered in the estimated sales field.

[0007]

According to the new store sales forecast sheet of the present invention, for example, in the case of an urban location-dependent store, visibility evaluation,
Enter each survey data and coefficient for each location judgment evaluation item such as traffic flow evaluation, market size, trade area quality, building evaluation and competitiveness evaluation in each entry column. Then, the numerical values obtained by multiplying the numerical values entered in these columns are entered in the respective calculation columns.

After that, the numerical values entered in these calculation fields are summed up and entered in the forecast sales field provided at the bottom of the table. The numerical value entered in this predicted sales column is a predicted numerical value of sales when the store is opened literally, and the success rate of the store can be immediately determined by looking at this predicted sales.

[0009]

[Embodiments] Hereinafter, the new store sales forecast sheet of the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the embodiments shown in the drawings. FIG. 1 shows a new store sales forecast sheet 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. New Store Sales Forecast Sheet 1 of this Example
Is especially for urban location-dependent stores. The new store sales forecast sheet 1 for the urban location-dependent store has a forecast property name entry field 2 in which the forecast property name is entered at the top.

It is preferable to enter the name of the store that is the target of the installation plan in this predicted property name entry field 2, but since the installation has not been decided, the installation of the store is planned for the time being. Fill in the location name. For example, if the store is planned to be installed in Shimbashi, Tokyo, it will be displayed for Shimbashi property. As a result, this new store sales forecast sheet 1
You can understand at a glance which property is targeted for.

An evaluation table 3 is provided below the prediction property name entry field 2. The evaluation table 3 is formed by providing evaluation item frames 4, survey data frames 5 and coefficient frames 6 in three rows. In the evaluation item frame 3 in the first column of this evaluation table, visibility evaluation, flow line evaluation, market size, quality of trade area,
The six evaluation item name columns 4 of 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5 and 4 of 6 in which the evaluation item names of the building evaluation and the competitiveness evaluation are arranged in the vertical direction are Has been formed.

Visibility evaluation in these evaluation item name fields,
The evaluation items of the flow line evaluation, market size, trade area quality, building evaluation, and competitiveness evaluation are related to the urban location-dependent store that is one embodiment of the present invention, and in the case of other stores, the items are The name is changed and each evaluation item corresponding to the location is set. From this, this evaluation item name can be generically called a location determination evaluation item name.

In the survey data frame 5 and the coefficient frame 6 in the second and third columns of the evaluation table 3, the evaluation points corresponding to 1 to 6 in each evaluation item name column 3 in the first column Entry field 5-1,
5, 2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 5 and 5, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 2, 3, 6, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6 are formed. That is, the evaluation table 3 is divided into five equal parts in the vertical direction by the horizontal lines, whereby the evaluation item frame 4 in the first column is divided into six parts.
One evaluation item name column 4 is divided into 1 to 4 and the survey data frame 5 and the coefficient frame 6 are also in the same line as the evaluation item name column 4 from 1 to 4 6 respectively. 6 to 6 and 1 to 6 of 6.

In the evaluation data entry field 5 corresponding to the evaluation item name fields 4 to 4-6, the evaluation point entry fields 5 to 5-6 are respectively:
The following survey data will be entered numerically. That is, in the evaluation point entry field 5-1, the evaluation point for the visibility evaluation in the evaluation item name field 4-1 is entered. This evaluation is based on picking up three guidance facilities at the planned store location, and if there is no obstacle in the direction in which the user naturally looks from each guidance facility Set to point 3.

[0015] In addition, a state in which the user is consciously searching for the property (changing the line of sight) from the guidance facility to some extent, and an obstacle such as a street tree or a building in the direction in which the user naturally looks from the guidance facility. In a certain state, the direction of the line of sight is natural, but if the signboard etc. is assimilated to the surrounding environment (fusion phenomenon), the evaluation score is 2
And Then, if it is in a state in which it cannot be recognized even if it is searched until it leaves the guidance facility, the evaluation point 1 is set.

In this way, the visibility of each of the three guiding facilities is evaluated, the average value thereof is calculated, and the average value is entered in 1 of the numerical value entry column 5 as the evaluation point. By the way, here, the guidance facility is around the property (100 to 20
0m) means that there is a high concentration of people, and the priority is the area around the large-scale station entrance / exit, with the station entrance / exit ticket gates
Large retail stores (department stores, discount stores), large supermarkets, large intersections, shopping mall entrances, etc.
However, if the concentration is extremely high, it may be one or two.

Next, in the evaluation point entry field 5-2, the evaluation points for the flow line evaluation in the evaluation item name field 4-2 are entered. The way of assigning this evaluation point is to use a line where people naturally pass between the two guidance facilities in a general way as one flow line, and if the property is located on that flow line or if the walking direction is not changed significantly, When it is possible to approach the property, the rating is 3. In this case, the upper limit of the evaluation is 2 for the flow line that does not originate from the station on one side.

Further, it is possible to approach the property without significantly changing the walking direction, or to leave the flow direction by 10 m to 20 m without changing the walking direction, or even on the flow line. If a psychologically strong sense of purpose is required to reach the property, a rating of 2 is given.

Then, the situation where the property is not located on the flow line,
Or, if it is in a shopping district that does not form a flow line, the evaluation point is 1. Regarding this flow line evaluation, three flow lines are selected and the average value of the respective evaluation points is calculated, and this is entered as the evaluation point in 2 of the numerical value entry column 5. However, if there is no specific location between the guidance facilities, it may be one or two.

Next, in the evaluation score entry field 5-3, the evaluation score for the market scale in the evaluation item name field 4-3 is entered. The method of assigning this evaluation point is as follows. First, refer to a wide area map that covers a radius of 1 km around the property, and list the town streets with a radius of 500 m.

Then, the ratio of those town chomes is calculated. Next, the annual retail sales amount as well as the annual food and drink sales amount will be examined for each of these towns. Such data can be obtained from the commercial statistics department of prefectures, municipalities, or private organizations that collect various data. Simply add up the annual retail sales amount and the annual food and drink sales amount at each of these towns and streets, and enter the total amount (unit: 100 million yen) in the number entry column 5-3.
Fill in.

Further, in the evaluation point entry field 5-4, the evaluation points regarding the quality of the commercial area in the evaluation item name field 4-4 are entered. The way of assigning this evaluation point is to observe the behavior and behavior of passers-by within a range of 50m before and after the property
Evaluate from the following viewpoints. In other words, (1) there is a tendency to adhere to life, (2) there is a tendency toward offices, (3) there is a tendency toward leisure, (4) whether there is a tendency toward tourism, (5) whether there is a tendency toward students, (6) ) A score is attached to each of the judgment indicators of whether or not there is a physical tendency.

Here, the lifestyle intimacy tendency means the manner and behavior of passersby: housewives holding shopping carts and plastic bags, many women, relatively many elderly and elderly people, office workers, office workers, etc. There are few people, young and new families are few, movement is slow and slow, there are many shops dealing with nearest items such as shopping streets and supermarkets, many bicycles are parked, etc. Say when there is. Then, when this state is applicable, an evaluation score of 2 is given.

The office tendency is that there are many office workers, office workers, etc., walking fast, traffic on weekday mornings and evenings is extremely high, traffic on holidays is low, and relatively light clothing. This is the case when the restaurant is very crowded during lunch, the proportion of women is low, etc.
Then, when this state is applicable, an evaluation score of 1 is given.

[0025] Also, the leisure tendency is that young and new families are overwhelmingly large, students returning from school and high school students flow in in the afternoon, there are many colorful clothes, male and female couples stand out (most), stalls It refers to the situation where there are many businesses, leisure facilities nearby, etc. Then, when this state is applicable, an evaluation score of 3 is given.

[0026] Further, the tourist tendency refers to a situation such as a tourist resort, many foreigners, many souvenir shops, more holiday inflows than weekdays, more women, etc., and
If this state is applicable, the evaluation shop 3 is given.

The student tendency refers to a state in which there is a university or a high school, which is exclusively for students to go to school, the inflow of holidays is less than that of weekdays, and it is quick. Then, when this state is applicable, an evaluation score of 1 is given. However, if the inflow of holidays is seen to improve due to extracurricular activities, the evaluation score is 2.

Finally, the physical tendency refers to a state in which there are many workers involved in construction, repairs, maintenance-related work, manual labor, and facilities such as out-of-place betting booths, baseball, and markets are nearby. . Then, when this state is applicable, an evaluation score of 2 is given.

In this way, an average value is obtained from the evaluation points attached to each item of the judgment index, and the average value is entered in 4 of the numerical value entry column 5 as the evaluation point. Next, in the evaluation point entry field 5-5, the evaluation point for the building in the evaluation item name field 4-5 is entered. The method of assigning this evaluation point is as follows. In other words, as a judgment index for building evaluation, (1) building area (contract area), (2) seating area (area after design), (3) pillar layout in the store, topography, slope, height, ( Set check items for 4) spare floor, spare seats (outdoor parasols, shared seats), (5) seat-to-table ratio, etc., and set the number corresponding to these check items as each evaluation point. In this way, an average value is obtained from the evaluation points attached to each item of the judgment index, and the average value is entered in 5 of the numerical value entry column 5 as the evaluation point.

Finally, in the evaluation score entry field 5-6, the evaluation score for the competitiveness evaluation in the evaluation item name field 4-6 is entered. The method of assigning this evaluation point is as follows.
That is, the market scale and the substitutability are used as judgment indices, and the market scale is defined as the common logarithm of the total amount of retail sales (100 million yen) and food and beverage sales (100 million yen).

As for the substitutability, evaluation points are given in each of (1) product substitutability, (2) location substitutability, and (3) building evaluation substitutability. For example, to explain the substitutability of products, it is targeted for evaluation based on the positional relationship with the guiding facilities listed within 100 m to 200 m around the property, and there are no stores with the same type of industry or business category, and most of the general consumers around If they also understand that way, the evaluation score is 0.

In addition, although the type of business and the business category are different, a part of the product is highly similar, and if the store is a slightly substitutable store, the evaluation score is set to 1, and the business category is the same, and the product is highly similar (to a hamburger) If the restaurant has chicken, the evaluation score is 2. Further, in the case of a store of another chain company whose business type is completely the same, the evaluation score is 3, and in the case of a store of its own chain, the evaluation score is 4.

In this way, the substitutability of the site and the substitutability of the building evaluation are also given the evaluation points based on the predetermined evaluation items, and the total of the subtotal and the evaluation points at the previous market size is calculated as (competitiveness). Fill in 6 of the numerical value entry column 5 as the evaluation point of (Evaluation).

Evaluation points for the location determination evaluation items such as visibility evaluation, flow line evaluation, market size, quality of commercial area, building evaluation and competitiveness evaluation are indicated by 1 to 5 in each numerical value entry column 5 of the survey data frame 5. When 6 is filled in, if the data is collected in advance in the store inspection data totaling table 10 shown in FIG. 2, it is only necessary to transfer those data to the evaluation table 3, so that it can be entered very efficiently. This store inspection data summary table 10 includes a “basic data” column 11, a “sales data” column 12,
The “commercial area data” column 13 is divided into three data columns, each of which has a detailed description column.

In the "basic data" column 11, the store number column 1
1a, a store name column 11b, a store phone number column 11c, and a store location column 11d are provided. Also, "Sales data"
In column 12, business start date column 12a, in-store remodeling date column 1
2b, a customer analysis column 12c, and an average monthly sales column 12d are provided. The customer analysis column 12c is divided into columns for entering the expected customer visits among students, intellectuals, housewives, elementary school students, junior high school students, high school students, single customers, families, etc. There is.

Next, the "commercial area data" column 13 is provided with a guidance facility entry column 13a as a common item. The guidance facility entry field 13a is divided into three subsections so that three guidance facilities can be entered. Then, the substance of the "commercial area data" column 13 is divided into each of the above-mentioned location determination items, and each location determination item is subdivided so that its unique survey data can be entered.

That is, for example, the "commercial area data" column 13
The top part of is a market size column 14, and this column is divided into 4 stages and shows the market scale level level column 14a, station boarding / alighting column 14b, commercial accumulation (annual retail sales amount, food and drink sales amount) Column 14c, visiting means display column 14
d.

In addition, column 1 regarding this market size
Below 4 is a building evaluation column 15. This column 15 checks the first floor area, total area, number of seats, number of stairs, width of the store divided into three stages, entrance position and size, etc. Column 1
It is composed of 5a and 15b. Further, a flow line evaluation column 16 is provided below the line 16, and in this column 16, items for checking the main flow line, the secondary flow line, and the reverse flow line are numbered from 3 to 1 in correspondence with the above-mentioned guidance facilities. (This is the immediate evaluation point).

Next, a field 17 for visibility evaluation is provided. In this field 17 as well, there are 3 items for checking the good, the bad, and the bad for each guiding facility described above.
It is displayed with a number of ~ 1 (this is the immediate evaluation point). Below this visibility evaluation column 17, there is provided a column 18 in which the amount of traffic is entered. In this column 18, the traffic volume immediately before the store is entered together with the measurement time for weekdays and holidays.

Below that, a column 19 about the quality of the commercial area is provided. The column 19 of the quality of this trade area is
It is divided into columns 19a to 19f for office property, leisure property, tourism property, physical property, and student propensity, and a score of 3 to 1 is assigned to each of them.
Finally, a column 20 for competitiveness evaluation is provided, and in this column 20, check items of visibility, comparison of building evaluations, comparison of flow line evaluations, shop superiority and disadvantage of product substitution are displayed. , 3 to 1 are described as comprehensive evaluation points.

If the above detailed various data are entered and aggregated by using the store inspection data tabulation table 10 as described above, it becomes very easy and easy to enter each evaluation point on the new store sales forecast sheet 1. It is possible to prevent the occurrence of error.

The evaluation points entered in the evaluation table 3 of the new store sales forecast sheet 1 as described above are mere indexes except for the evaluation points relating to the market size (which are shown in monetary amounts). , It's clear that this alone has nothing to do with forecast sales. Therefore, the evaluation score for each location determination evaluation item is multiplied by a coefficient, and the estimated sales value is replaced for each location determination evaluation item.

It is the coefficient frame 6 in which the coefficient for that purpose is entered. Therefore, the numerical value entry boxes 6 to 6 of the numerical value entry boxes 6 of the coefficient box 6 corresponding to 6 to 6 of the location judgment evaluation item name fields 4 respectively. Has
Each coefficient is entered. This coefficient is obtained by multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression analysis is an objective variable (sales of existing store (average monthly sales)) and explanatory variables (6 variables of visibility evaluation, flow line evaluation, market size, trade area room, building evaluation, competitiveness evaluation). The relations with and the relational expressions are created, and the following matters are used by using these, (1) prediction / potential / evaluation, (2) the degree of influence of the explanatory variables on the objective variables, and (3) the importance of the explanatory variables. It is a way to clarify the ranking. Since a method of obtaining a coefficient by such multiple regression analysis is well known in the related art, description thereof will be omitted here. The number of samples is preferably 10 to 30 when calculating the coefficient by this multiple regression analysis. In addition, the coefficient obtained by this multiple regression analysis can be used the same value for several years if it is decided once.

Further, on the right side of the evaluation table 3, the numerical values entered in 1 to 5 of each numerical value entry column 5 in the survey data frame 5 and the numerical values entered in 1 to 6 of each numerical value entry column 6 in the coefficient frame 6 are shown. Enter the numerical value of the result obtained by multiplying the numerical value entered in 6 with the numerical value in each calculation field 7 to 6 of 7 is 1 in each location determination evaluation item name field 4
4 to 6 are formed in the same row. These calculation fields 7
A constant value entry field 8 is provided at the bottom of 6 of 1 to 7
Below that, there is provided a forecast sales column 9 in which the total value obtained by summing the numerical values of the respective calculation columns is entered.

Since the numerical value entered in the predicted sales column 9 is the predicted sales when the store is opened literally, it is possible to judge the success rate of the store installation by this numerical value.

[0046]

As described above, according to the new store sales forecast sheet of the present invention, the evaluation score based on the survey data is entered in the numerical entry column for each location determination evaluation item, and the coefficient is calculated for each item. If entered, the estimated sales can be easily aggregated and displayed, so that the success rate when the store is installed can be determined at a glance.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a plan view showing a new store sales forecast sheet according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a plan view showing a store inspection data totaling table for totaling survey data for each location determination evaluation item when writing evaluation points in the evaluation table in the new store sales forecast sheet shown in FIG. .

[Explanation of symbols]

 1 New Store Sales Forecast Sheet 2 Forecast Property Name Entry Field 3 Evaluation Table 4 Evaluation Item Frame 4-4 1-6 Evaluation Item Name Field 5 Survey Data Frame 5 5-5 6 Survey Data Entry Field 6 Coefficient Frame 6 1 to 6 6 Coefficient entry column 7 Calculation column 8 Constant value entry column 9 Forecast sales entry column 10 Store inspection data summary table 11 Basic data column 12 Business data column 13 Trade area data column 14 Market size column 15 Building evaluation column 16 Action Line evaluation column 17 Visibility evaluation column 18 Traffic volume entry column 19 Trade area quality column 20 Competitiveness assessment column

Claims (2)

[Claims] 1. A plurality of columns for entering survey data for a plurality of location determination evaluation items are provided, and a column for entering a coefficient for each of the location determination evaluation items is provided adjacent to each survey data entry column. Adjacent to the coefficient entry field, a calculation field for entering the numerical value of the result obtained by multiplying the value in the survey data entry field and the value in the coefficient entry field in each of the location determination evaluation items is provided. A new store sales characterized by setting a forecast sales column at the bottom to enter the total value of the above calculation columns, and making it possible to judge and recognize the success rate of store installation based on the numbers entered in this forecast sales column Prediction sheet. 2. An evaluation table having evaluation item frames, survey data frames and coefficient frames in three horizontal rows is formed, and the evaluation item frames in the first column of this evaluation table are location determination evaluations for urban type location-dependent stores. Evaluation items of visibility evaluation, flow line evaluation, market scale, quality of commercial area, building evaluation and competitiveness evaluation are vertically arranged to form six evaluation item name columns, and the evaluation table second column and In the survey data frame and the coefficient frame in the third column, numerical value input columns are formed corresponding to the evaluation item name columns in the first column,
Each evaluation item name has a calculation column in which a numerical value obtained by multiplying the numerical value entered in each numerical value input column in the survey data frame and the numerical value in each numerical value input column in the coefficient frame is written on the side of the evaluation table. Formed in the same row as the column, at the bottom of each calculation column, provide a forecast sales column for entering the total value of the values of each calculation column, and set the store according to the number entered in this forecast sales column. A new store sales forecast sheet that can judge and recognize the success rate.