JP7405963B2 - Audience rating estimation device, audience rating estimation method, and audience rating estimation program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an audience rating estimation device, an audience rating estimation method, and a recording medium.

In television broadcasting, viewer ratings of programs to be broadcast in the future are often estimated manually based on past viewer ratings.

Further, Patent Document 1 describes that viewing history data is acquired from a measuring device connected to a television set in a predetermined household, and viewer ratings are estimated from the data.

Note that the audience rating is the ratio of households that viewed a predetermined program to households that own a television. Furthermore, the audience ratings include real-time audience ratings and time-shift audience ratings. The real-time viewing rate is the ratio of households that watched a program in real time to households that own a TV. The time-shift audience rating is the ratio of households that viewed a recorded program within a predetermined period (eg, within 7 days) from the real-time broadcast end time to television-owning households. In addition, when it is described simply as "audience rating" hereinafter, the audience rating refers to at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating. Past audience rating performance data is provided to each broadcasting station from an audience rating provider.

Patent No. 6619116

However, in a method such as the method described in Patent Document 1, which estimates the audience rating of a program to be broadcast in the future based on past audience ratings, the estimated audience rating may not match the actual situation. Ta.

An object of the present invention is to provide an audience rating estimation device, an audience rating estimation method, and a recording medium that make it possible to improve the accuracy of estimating audience ratings for programs to be broadcast in the future.

In one aspect of the present invention, the audience rating estimation device calculates the past actual value of real-time audience rating, the past actual value of time-shift audience rating, and the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous distribution over the Internet. the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions; The present invention is characterized by comprising an output means for calculating an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating, and outputting information indicating the estimated value.

In another aspect of the present invention, the audience rating estimation method uses past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shifted audience ratings, and internet simultaneous distribution of predetermined target programs to be broadcast in the future. the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions; The present invention is characterized in that an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, and information indicating the estimated value is output.

In another aspect of the present invention, the audience rating estimation program recorded on the computer-readable recording medium stores in the computer past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shifted audience ratings, a receiving function that receives a predicted number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution; the past actual value of the real-time audience rating; and the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating; , calculate an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating of the target program based on the predicted value of the number of impressions, and output information indicating the estimated value. It is characterized by realizing an output function.

According to the present invention, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating audience ratings for programs to be broadcast in the future.

1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of an audience rating estimation device according to a first embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure showing an example of operation of an audience rating estimation device of a first embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure showing an example of composition of an audience rating estimation system of a second embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure showing an example of composition of an audience rating estimation device of a second embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the display displayed on a display means by the audience rating estimation apparatus of 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the display displayed on a display means by the audience rating estimation apparatus of 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing an example of operation of an audience rating estimation device of a second embodiment of the present invention. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of each embodiment of the present invention. FIG.

[First embodiment]
A first embodiment of the present invention will be described.

FIG. 1 shows a configuration example of the audience rating estimation device 10 of this embodiment. The audience rating estimation device 10 of this embodiment includes a receiving section 11 and an output section 12.

The receiving unit 11 receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous distribution over the Internet. The output unit 12 calculates the real-time audience rating and time-shift audience rating of the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. At least one of the estimated values is calculated. Further, the output unit 12 outputs information indicating the estimated value.

By configuring the audience rating estimation device 10 in this way, the audience rating estimation device 10 can, based on the past actual values of the real-time audience rating and time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution, Calculate the estimated audience rating of the target program. This makes it possible to calculate the estimated value of the audience rating based on the predicted value of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution in addition to the past performance value of the audience rating. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the audience ratings of programs to be broadcast in the future.

Next, FIG. 2 shows an example of the operation of the audience rating estimation device 10 of this embodiment.

The receiving unit 11 receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution (step S101). The output unit 12 calculates an estimated value of the audience rating of the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions (step S102 ). At this time, the output unit 12 calculates an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shift audience rating. Furthermore, the output unit 12 outputs information indicating the estimated value (step S103).

As explained above, in the first embodiment of the present invention, the audience rating estimation device 10 uses past actual values of real-time audience ratings and time-shifted audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution. Based on this, an estimated value of the audience rating of the target program is calculated. This makes it possible to calculate the estimated value of the audience rating based on the predicted value of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution in addition to the past performance value of the audience rating. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the audience ratings of programs to be broadcast in the future.

[Second embodiment]
Next, an audience rating estimation system according to a second embodiment of the present invention will be described.

First, FIG. 3 shows a configuration example of the audience rating estimation system of this embodiment. The audience rating estimation system of this embodiment includes an audience rating estimation device 20, an audience rating providing device 40, an impression number prediction device 50, and a display means 60. Further, the audience rating estimation device 20, the number of impressions prediction device 50, and the display means 60 are included in the commercial broadcasting system 70.

The commercial broadcast system 70 is a system that manages broadcast programs, commercial messages (CMs), and the like.

The audience rating providing device 40 provides past real-time audience ratings and past time-shifted audience ratings.

The number of impressions prediction device 50 predicts the number of impressions of a program to be broadcast in the future. The number of impressions is the number of times a program that is distributed on the Internet at the same time as it is broadcast on the airwaves (referred to as simultaneous Internet distribution) is viewed. The number of impressions prediction device 50 predicts the number of impressions of a program to be broadcast in the future based on information collected by the number of impressions prediction device 50 and other devices (not shown) in the commercial broadcasting system 70. good. For example, the impression number prediction device 50 may predict the number of impressions of a program to be broadcast in the future based on the past number of impressions. Further, the impression number prediction device 50 may predict the number of impressions of a program to be broadcast in the future based on the past number of impressions provided by an impression number provider. In this embodiment, any method can be used to predict the number of impressions.

Note that when the impression number prediction device 50 predicts the number of impressions of a program to be broadcast in the future based on information obtained by the commercial broadcasting system 70, there is an advantage that an audience rating estimation system can be easily constructed. Furthermore, since the number of impressions can be predicted within the commercial broadcasting system 70 of the broadcasting station, there is also an advantage from the viewpoint of security.

The audience rating estimation device 20 calculates an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating of the target program. Further, in this embodiment, the audience rating estimation device 20 causes the display means 60 to display the estimated value.

The display means 60 displays the estimated value estimated by the audience rating estimation device 20. Note that the display means 60 may include a display or the like as an output device, or may include a touch panel or the like as an input/output device.

Next, FIG. 4 shows a configuration example of the audience rating estimation device 20 of this embodiment.

The audience rating estimation device 20 includes a receiving section 11, an output section 12, and a display control section 23.

The receiving unit 11 receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings and past actual values of time-shift audience ratings. The receiving unit 11 also receives from the impression number prediction device 50 a predicted value of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program that will be broadcast in the future and will be simultaneously distributed over the Internet. Note that the target program refers to a program whose audience rating is to be estimated. Furthermore, in the audience rating estimation device 20 of this embodiment, the programs whose audience ratings are to be estimated are programs that are simultaneously distributed over the Internet.

The output unit 12 calculates an estimated value of the audience rating of the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. Note that the output unit 12 calculates an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shift audience rating.

Then, the output unit 12 outputs information indicating the estimated value to the display control unit 23. Note that the information indicating the estimated value includes at least the estimated value of the real-time audience rating when the output unit 12 calculates the estimated value of the real-time audience rating. Moreover, the information indicating the estimated value includes at least the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating when the output unit 12 calculates the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating.

The display control section 23 causes the display means 60 to display the estimated value. When the output unit 12 calculates the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the display control unit 23 causes the display unit 60 to display at least the estimated value of the real-time audience rating. Further, when the output unit 12 calculates the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the display control unit 23 causes the display unit 60 to display at least the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating.

The audience rating estimation device 20 of this embodiment calculates the estimated value of the audience rating of the target program, for example, by the following method. Note that the following explanation will be given using an example in which the audience rating estimation device 20 calculates estimated values of both the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating. You may calculate the estimated value of either one. Furthermore, the method for calculating the estimated value is not limited to the methods listed below. Any method can be used to calculate the estimated value as long as it is based on past performance values of audience ratings and predicted values of the number of impressions.

For example, the audience rating estimation device 20 calculates the audience rating by adding or subtracting a value corresponding to the ratio of the predicted value of the number of impressions to the reference value to or subtracting from the past actual value of the audience rating. Calculate the estimated value of

First, the output unit 12 of the audience rating estimation device 20 calculates the ratio (reach rate) of the predicted number of impressions of the target program for simultaneous Internet distribution to the reference value.

The reference value is a value that serves as an index for evaluating whether the number of impressions is large or small. The number of impressions is a value that indicates the number of times a video has been viewed, so depending on the day of the week, time of day, etc., there are cases where the number of impressions should be evaluated as high or low. For example, even if the number of impressions is the same, a program from 7:00 pm to 9:00 pm will be evaluated as having a low number of impressions, and a program from late night will be evaluated as having a low number of impressions. may be appropriate. Therefore, the audience rating estimation device 20 of this embodiment uses a reference value to evaluate whether the number of impressions is large or small.

The reference value is set in advance in the audience rating estimation device 20. The reference value is set according to the time rank, broadcast time zone, etc., and can be set flexibly in consideration of the regional characteristics of the broadcast target area. Note that the time rank is a rank of CM fees that is preset according to the day of the week or time slot.

Further, the output unit 12 extracts the actual value of the real-time audience rating of a program with similar conditions to the target program from the past actual value of the real-time audience rating received from the audience rating providing device 40, and extracts the actual value of the real-time audience rating of a program with similar conditions to the target program. is used as the past performance value of real-time audience rating. For example, the output unit 12 uses the real-time audience rating of a program broadcast on the same day of the week or the same time slot as the target program as the past performance value of the real-time audience rating.

Furthermore, regarding the time-shifted audience ratings, the output unit 12 similarly calculates programs with similar conditions to the target program for which the audience ratings are to be estimated, based on the past performance values of the time-shifted audience ratings received from the audience rating providing device 40. Extract the actual value of time-shift audience rating. Then, the output unit 12 uses the extracted performance value as a past performance value of the time-shift audience rating. For example, the output unit 12 uses the time-shift audience rating of a program broadcast on the same day of the week or the same time slot as the target program as the past performance value of the time-shift audience rating.

The output unit 12 may further use genre information and the like to determine programs with similar conditions. In addition, when there are multiple programs with similar conditions to the target program, the output unit 12 uses the values obtained by performing statistical processing such as averaging on the multiple performance values as the past performance values. Good too.

Next, the audience rating estimation device 20 adds or subtracts a value corresponding to the ratio (reach rate) of the predicted value of the number of impressions to the reference value to the past actual value of the audience rating or from the past actual value of the audience rating. Calculate the estimated audience rating.

For example, a viewer who is viewing a certain program via Internet simultaneous distribution is a viewer who is viewing the program at the same time as it is being broadcast. Therefore, it is thought that the viewer group that views simultaneous Internet distribution is also the viewer group that views real-time viewing. In other words, if the arrival rate of the predicted number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution is high for a certain program, it is estimated that the real-time audience rating for this program will be higher than the time-shift audience rating.

Based on this estimation, the audience rating estimation device 20 of the present embodiment calculates that when the arrival rate is higher than 100% by a predetermined percentage, but the past actual value of the real-time audience rating is lower than the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating. In other words, when the situation is different from the estimate, a value corresponding to the reach rate is added or subtracted from the audience rating of the target program. Specifically, the audience rating estimation device 20 compares the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the actual value of the time-shift audience rating when the ratio (reach rate) is greater than or equal to a predetermined first threshold. Then, when the actual value of the real-time audience rating is lower than the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, the audience rating estimating device 20 adds a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the real-time audience rating, thereby increasing the real-time viewing of the target program. Calculate the rate estimate. Furthermore, in this case, the audience rating estimation device 20 calculates the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating of the target program by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating.

Conversely, if the impression rate is lower than 100% by a predetermined percentage, but the past actual value of the real-time audience rating is higher than the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rate, in other words, the situation is different from the estimate. If so, a value corresponding to the reach rate is added or subtracted from the audience rating of the target program. Specifically, the audience rating estimation device 20 compares the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the actual value of the time-shift audience rating when the ratio (reach rate) is less than or equal to a predetermined second threshold. Note that the second threshold is a value lower than the first threshold. Then, when the actual value of the real-time audience rating is higher than the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, the audience rating estimation device 20 subtracts a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the real-time audience rating, thereby calculating the real-time viewing of the target program. Calculate the rate estimate. Furthermore, in this case, the audience rating estimation device 20 calculates the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating of the target program by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating.

When the reach rate is between the first threshold and the second threshold, the actual value of the audience rating is used as the estimated value of the audience rating without being added or subtracted.

Note that the additional value or subtraction value may be a fixed value, a value depending on the reach rate, or a value depending on the difference between the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the actual value of the time-shift audience rating. Good too.

By doing so, the time shift audience rating and the estimated value of the time shift audience rating can be brought closer to the estimated state as described above. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating real-time audience ratings and time-shift audience ratings based on the predicted value of the number of impressions.

Furthermore, by improving the accuracy of estimating audience ratings, there is an increased possibility that a sponsor's desire to purchase a commercial slot will increase, and as a result, there is an increased possibility that a broadcast station's advertising revenue will increase.

Next, a method of displaying estimated values will be explained.

The display control unit 23 of this embodiment causes the display means 60 to display the estimated value.

FIG. 5 shows an example of displaying estimated values. In this example, the display control unit 23 causes the display unit 60 to display the estimated value in association with the program.

In the table shown in FIG. 5, the horizontal axis represents the day of the week, and the vertical axis represents the program classification. Further, the upper row of each program frame indicates the real-time (RT) audience rating. Moreover, the lower row shows the time shift (TS) audience rating. In addition, for programs in the upper and lower rows that display two numbers with a slash (/) between them, the estimated value is calculated based on the predicted number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution. It's a program. In this example, the left side of the slash (/) indicates the past performance value, and the right side indicates the estimated value estimated by the audience rating estimation device 20.

Programs with no slash (/) displayed are programs that are not simultaneously distributed over the Internet. For programs that are not simultaneously distributed over the Internet, the number of impressions cannot be predicted. Therefore, the audience rating estimation device 20 does not calculate estimated values for programs that are not simultaneously distributed over the Internet. As a result, for programs that are not simultaneously distributed over the Internet, estimated values are not displayed, but actual values are displayed.

In this way, in the display example shown in FIG. 5, past performance values and estimated values estimated by the audience rating estimation device 20 are displayed side by side for programs for which estimated values have been calculated.

Further, FIG. 6 shows another example of displaying estimated values. In the example shown in Figure 6, for each of the real-time viewership rating and time-shifted viewership rating, in addition to the actual value and the estimated value, the difference between the actual value and the estimated value (in the case of Figure 6, the difference between the actual value and the estimated value) is calculated by subtracting the actual value from the estimated value. value) is displayed. The display of the difference may be a signed display or an absolute value display.

In the examples shown in FIGS. 5 and 6, the display control unit 23 causes the display unit 60 to display the audience rating in association with the program, but the display control unit 23 may display the audience rating in a manner that does not associate it with the program.

As shown in FIGS. 5 and 6, when the display control unit 23 displays the estimated value and the program in association with each other on the display means 60, there is an advantage that the estimated value of the audience rating can be easily grasped by the user. Furthermore, by causing the display control unit 23 to display the actual value and the estimated value or the difference between the actual value and the estimated value on the display means 60, it becomes easier for the user to understand the difference between the actual value and the estimated value. There is an advantage.

If the difference between the actual value and the estimated value can be grasped, the user may be able to use the information about the difference in a sales strategy for the commercial slot. For example, it is possible to sell commercial slots for programs whose estimated real-time audience ratings are higher than actual real-time audience ratings as commercial slots for broadcasting commercials that are more focused on the real-time audience. It becomes possible. By selling commercial slots with greater consideration to viewer demographics, it is possible to increase advertising revenue for broadcast stations and increase the profits of sponsors.

By configuring the audience rating estimation device 20 in this way, the audience rating estimation device 20 can, based on the past actual values of the real-time audience rating and time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution, Calculate the estimated audience rating of the target program. This makes it possible to calculate the estimated value of the audience rating based on the predicted value of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution in addition to the past performance value of the audience rating. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the audience ratings of programs to be broadcast in the future.

Next, FIG. 7 shows an example of the operation of the audience rating estimation device 20 of this embodiment.

The receiving unit 11 receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution (step S201). The output unit 12 calculates the estimated audience rating of the target program based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shift audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions (step S202 ). At this time, the output unit 12 calculates an estimated value of at least one of the real-time audience rating and the time-shifted audience rating as the estimated value of the audience rating. Then, the display control unit 23 displays the calculated estimated value on the display means 60 (step S203).

As explained above, in the second embodiment of the present invention, the audience rating estimation device 20 uses past actual values of real-time audience ratings and time-shifted audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution. Based on this, an estimated value of the audience rating of the target program is calculated. This makes it possible to calculate the estimated value of the audience rating based on the predicted value of the number of impressions of simultaneous Internet distribution in addition to the past performance value of the audience rating. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the audience ratings of programs to be broadcast in the future.

[Hardware configuration example]
An example of the configuration of hardware resources that implements the audience rating estimation device (10, 20) in each embodiment of the present invention described above using one information processing device (computer) will be described. Note that the audience rating estimation device may be realized using at least two or more information processing devices physically or functionally. Further, the audience rating estimation device may be realized as a dedicated device, or a general-purpose device may be used. Further, only some functions of the audience rating estimation device may be implemented using an information processing device.

FIG. 8 is a diagram schematically showing an example of the hardware configuration of an information processing device that can implement the audience rating estimation device according to each embodiment of the present invention. Information processing device 90 includes a communication interface 91, an input/output interface 92, an arithmetic device 93, a storage device 94, a nonvolatile storage device 95, and a drive device 96.

For example, the receiving section 11 in FIG. 1 can be realized by the communication interface 91, and the output section 12 can be realized by the arithmetic device 93.

The communication interface 91 is a communication means for the audience rating estimation device of each embodiment to communicate with an external device at least one of wired and wireless communication. Note that when the audience rating estimation device is implemented using at least two information processing devices, these devices may be connected to each other via the communication interface 91 so that they can communicate with each other.

The input/output interface 92 is a man-machine interface such as a keyboard as an example of an input device and a display as an output device.

The arithmetic device 93 is realized by, for example, an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or a microprocessor, and a plurality of electric circuits. The arithmetic device 93 can, for example, read various programs stored in the nonvolatile storage device 95 into the storage device 94 and execute processing according to the read programs.

The storage device 94 is a memory device such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) that can be referenced by the arithmetic device 93, and stores programs, various data, and the like. Storage device 94 may be a volatile memory device.

The nonvolatile storage device 95 is a nonvolatile storage device such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) or a flash memory, and is capable of storing various programs, data, and the like.

The drive device 96 is, for example, a device that processes reading and writing of data recorded on a recording medium 97, which will be described later.

The recording medium 97 is any recording medium capable of recording data, such as an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, or a semiconductor flash memory.

In each embodiment of the present invention, for example, an audience rating estimation device is configured by the information processing device 90 illustrated in FIG. This may be realized by supplying.

In this case, the embodiment can be realized by the arithmetic device 93 executing the program supplied to the audience rating estimation device. Further, it is also possible to configure not all but some functions of the audience rating estimation device in the information processing device 90.

Furthermore, the program may be recorded on the recording medium 97 and stored in the non-volatile storage device 95 as appropriate during the shipping stage or operation stage of the audience rating estimation device. In this case, the above-mentioned program may be supplied by installing it into the audience rating estimation device using an appropriate jig at the manufacturing stage before shipment or at the operational stage. Further, as the method for supplying the program, a general procedure such as a method of downloading the program from an external source via a communication line such as the Internet may be adopted.

Part or all of the above embodiments may be described as in the following additional notes, but are not limited to the following.

(Additional note 1)
Receiving means for receiving past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. An audience rating estimation device comprising: output means for calculating an estimated value of at least one of the audience rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value.

(Additional note 2)
Supplementary note 1, wherein the output means calculates the estimated value by adding to or subtracting from the actual value a value corresponding to a ratio of the predicted value of the number of impressions to a reference value. The audience rating estimation device described in .

(Additional note 3)
The output means, when the ratio is equal to or higher than a predetermined first threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation device according to supplementary note 2.

(Additional note 4)
When the ratio is less than or equal to a predetermined second threshold, the output means
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation device according to supplementary note 2 or supplementary note 3.

(Appendix 5)
The audience rating estimation device according to any one of appendices 1 to 4, further comprising: display control means for displaying the calculated estimated value on a display means.

(Appendix 6)
The display control means includes:
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, displaying the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating side by side on a display means,
Supplementary note 5, characterized in that when the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating are displayed side by side on a display means. The audience rating estimation device described.

(Appendix 7)
The display control means includes:
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, further displaying the difference between the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating on a display means,
When the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the method further comprises displaying a difference between the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating on a display means. The audience rating estimation device according to appendix 6.

(Appendix 8)
Receive past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. An audience rating estimation method characterized by calculating an estimated value of at least one of the audience rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value.

(Appendix 9)
The audience rating according to appendix 8, wherein the estimated value is calculated by adding to or subtracting from the actual value a value corresponding to a ratio of the predicted value of the number of impressions to a reference value. Estimation method.

(Appendix 10)
if said ratio is greater than or equal to a predetermined first threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation method described in Supplementary Note 9.

(Appendix 11)
if the ratio is less than or equal to a predetermined second threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation method according to supplementary note 9 or supplementary note 10.

(Appendix 12)
The audience rating estimation method according to any one of appendices 8 to 11, characterized in that the calculated estimated value is displayed on a display means.

(Appendix 13)
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, displaying the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating side by side on a display means,
Supplementary note 12, characterized in that when the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating are displayed side by side on a display means. The audience rating estimation method described.

(Appendix 14)
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, further displaying the difference between the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating on a display means,
When the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the method further comprises displaying a difference between the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating on a display means. The audience rating estimation method described in Appendix 13.

(Appendix 15)
to the computer,
a reception function that receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shifted audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. A computer-readable recording medium having recorded thereon an audience rating estimation program, the computer-readable recording medium having an output function of calculating an estimated value of at least one of the audience rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value.

(Appendix 16)
Supplementary note 15, wherein the output function calculates the estimated value by adding to or subtracting from the actual value a value corresponding to a ratio of the predicted value of the number of impressions to a reference value. A computer-readable recording medium that records the audience rating estimation program described in .

(Appendix 17)
The output function is configured to: if the ratio is greater than or equal to a predetermined first threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. A computer-readable recording medium having recorded thereon the audience rating estimation program according to supplementary note 16.

(Appendix 18)
The output function is configured to: if the ratio is less than or equal to a predetermined second threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. A computer-readable recording medium having recorded thereon the audience rating estimation program according to supplementary note 16 or supplementary note 17.

(Appendix 19)
A computer-readable recording medium having recorded thereon an audience rating estimation program according to any one of appendices 15 to 18, characterized in that a computer is made to implement a display control function for displaying the calculated estimated value on a display means.

(Additional note 20)
The display control function is
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, displaying the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating side by side on a display means,
Supplementary note 19, characterized in that when the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating are displayed side by side on a display means. A computer-readable recording medium that records the audience rating estimation program described above.

(Additional note 21)
The display control function is
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, further displaying the difference between the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating on a display means,
When the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the method further comprises displaying a difference between the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating on a display means. A computer-readable recording medium recording the audience rating estimation program according to appendix 20.

Although the present invention has been described above with reference to the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The configuration and details of the present invention can be modified in various ways that can be understood by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present invention.

This application claims priority based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2020-075205 filed on April 21, 2020, and the entire disclosure thereof is incorporated herein.

10, 20 audience rating estimation device 11 receiving unit 12 output unit 23 display control unit 40 audience rating providing device 50 impression number prediction device 60 display means 70 commercial broadcasting system 90 information processing device 91 communication interface 92 input/output interface 93 arithmetic device 94 storage Device 95 Nonvolatile storage device 96 Drive device 97 Recording medium

Claims (10)

Receiving means for receiving past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. An audience rating estimation device comprising: output means for calculating an estimated value of at least one of the audience rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value. The output means calculates the estimated value by adding to or subtracting from the actual value a value corresponding to a ratio of the predicted value of the number of impressions to a reference value. 1. The audience rating estimation device according to 1. The output means, when the ratio is equal to or higher than a predetermined first threshold;
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation device according to claim 2. When the ratio is less than or equal to a predetermined second threshold, the output means
When calculating the estimated value of the real-time audience rating, the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated by subtracting a predetermined subtraction value from the actual value of the real-time audience rating,
When calculating the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating, the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated by adding a predetermined additional value to the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating. The audience rating estimation device according to claim 2 or 3. The audience rating estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising: display control means for displaying the calculated estimated value on a display means. The display control means includes:
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, displaying the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating side by side on a display means,
5. When the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating are displayed side by side on a display means. The audience rating estimation device described in . The display control means includes:
When the estimated value of the real-time audience rating is calculated, further displaying the difference between the actual value of the real-time audience rating and the estimated value of the real-time audience rating on a display means,
When the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating is calculated, the method further comprises displaying a difference between the actual value of the time-shifted audience rating and the estimated value of the time-shifted audience rating on a display means. The audience rating estimation device according to claim 6. Receive past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shift audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions for simultaneous Internet distribution of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. An audience rating estimation method characterized by calculating an estimated value of at least one of the audience rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value. The audience rating estimation method according to claim 8 , further comprising displaying the calculated estimated value on a display means. to the computer,
a reception function that receives past actual values of real-time audience ratings, past actual values of time-shifted audience ratings, and predicted values of the number of impressions of a predetermined target program to be broadcast in the future for simultaneous Internet distribution;
The real-time audience rating and the time shift of the target program are based on the past actual value of the real-time audience rating, the past actual value of the time-shifted audience rating, and the predicted value of the number of impressions. An output function of calculating an estimated value of at least one of a viewer rating and outputting information indicating the estimated value.

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