JP7343966B2 - Fire alarm equipment and disaster prevention equipment - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to fire alarm equipment that monitors fires in tunnels by connecting fire detectors installed in tunnels to disaster prevention receivers, and disaster prevention equipment that uses detectors to monitor abnormalities in monitoring areas.

Conventionally, emergency equipment has been installed in tunnels such as motorways to protect people and vehicles from fire accidents that occur inside the tunnel. In such emergency facilities, fire detectors installed at predetermined intervals along the length of the tunnel are connected to a signal line drawn out from a disaster prevention receiver panel to monitor fires occurring within the tunnel.

The fire detector has detection areas on both the left and right sides, and monitors radiation, such as infrared rays, from fire flames generated inside the tunnel through a transparent window. The fire detectors and fire detectors are successively arranged, for example, at intervals of 25 m or 50 m so that the detection areas of the fire detectors overlap each other in a complementary manner.

If a fire breaks out in a tunnel due to a vehicle accident, etc., the disaster prevention receiver will receive a fire detection signal from the fire detector and output a fire alarm, and an electronic bulletin board installed at the tunnel entrance will prohibit entry. A warning is issued to prevent vehicles from entering the tunnel.

JP 2018-147373 Publication Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2016-128796 Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2002-246962

However, in fire alarm equipment that monitors fires using such fire detectors, there is a problem in that tunnel entry prohibition alarms are frequently issued due to non-fire alarms from the fire detectors. If the cause of a non-fire alarm is found, it can be resolved by taking measures such as repairs to eliminate the cause of the non-fire alarm, but there are some non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to even after investigation. However, it is difficult to predict the occurrence of non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to, and it is difficult to predict the occurrence of non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to. Problems still remain.

In addition, even in general disaster prevention equipment that monitors fires in the monitoring area using fire detectors, false alarms due to non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to can cause unnecessary confusion, similar to the non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to in tunnel emergency equipment. This problem has arisen, and its solution remains an issue.

An object of the present invention is to provide fire alarm equipment that suppresses and prevents tunnel entry prohibition alarms caused by non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to, and disaster prevention equipment that suppresses and prevents alarms caused by false alarms that are difficult to respond to.

( Fire alarm equipment )
The present invention is a fire alarm system that monitors fire by installing a plurality of fire detectors in a monitoring area and connecting the fire detectors to a receiver panel, comprising :
A prediction means for predicting the number of fire detectors that will generate non-fire alarms according to the operating time of the fire detectors, based on the number of fire detectors installed and the failure rate of the fire detectors set based on the history of occurrence of non-fire alarms in the monitoring area. ,
a notification means for making a notification based on the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction means;
It is characterized by having the following .

(Failure rate, ratio of non-fire alarms, number of non-fire alarms)
The prediction means are
The non-fire alarm occurrence rate is calculated by dividing the predetermined number of non-fire alarm fire detectors by the predetermined number of non-fire alarm occurrences.
The fire detector failure rate is calculated by multiplying the reciprocal of the past average interval of non-fire alarms in the monitoring area by the non-fire alarm occurrence rate, divided by the number of fire detectors installed in the past. seek,
The number of non-fire alarms is predicted as the product of the number of installed fire detectors , the failure rate of fire detectors, and the operating time of fire detectors .

(Prediction of non-fire alarm occurrence based on cumulative number of installed units)
The prediction means are
We manage the cumulative number of fire detectors installed by adding up the number of fire detectors installed, which increases each predetermined period.
The total number of non-fire alarm units corresponding to the number of units installed at each predetermined period included in the cumulative number of installed units is predicted as the number of non-fire alarm units of the cumulative number of installed units.

(Indication of non-fire alarm risk)
The notification means displays a message that the risk of a predetermined non-fire alarm occurrence has increased, based on the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction means, and prompts inspection or replacement of the fire detector.

(R type equipment)
Fire detectors installed in the monitoring area are assigned a unique address and
The receiving board sends and receives signals to and from the fire detector by specifying an address.

(Disaster prevention equipment)
Another aspect of the present invention is a disaster prevention equipment that installs a plurality of detectors for detecting a predetermined abnormality in a monitoring area, connects the detectors to a receiver panel, and monitors the abnormality,
Predict the number of false alarms depending on the operating time of the detectors based on the number of installed detectors, the failure rate of the detectors set based on past performance, and the false alarm occurrence rate of detectors set based on past performance. a prediction means;
Notification means for making a notification based on the number of false alarms predicted by the prediction means;
Equipped with
The false alarm occurrence rate is calculated as the predetermined number of false alarms of the detector divided by the predetermined number of false alarms,
The failure rate of the detector is calculated by multiplying the reciprocal of the average interval of past false alarms in the monitoring area by the false alarm occurrence rate, divided by the number of installed detectors in the past,
It is characterized by predicting the number of false alarms occurring as a value obtained by multiplying the number of installed detectors, the failure rate of the detectors, and the operating time of the detectors.

(basic effect)
The present invention provides fire detection in tunnel emergency equipment in which fire detectors for detecting fire are installed at predetermined intervals in the longitudinal direction of a tunnel, and the fire detectors are connected to a signal line from a receiver panel to monitor fires. A prediction method that predicts the number of non-fire alarms according to the operating time of fire detectors based on the number of installed fire detectors and the failure rate of fire detectors set based on past performance, and the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction method. Since an alarm means for issuing alarms based on the number of fire alarms has been provided, the number of non-fire alarms that generate non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to is set as a constant based on past results, based on the operating time of fire detectors. It is possible to take necessary measures based on the predicted number of non-fire alarms, reduce the risk of non-fire alarms, and prevent tunnel entry prohibition warnings when non-fire alarms occur.

In addition, since the occurrence of non-fire alarms can be predicted, it is possible to easily maintain and manage tunnel emergency equipment, and it is also possible to predict when fire detectors will be replaced, making it possible to appropriately plan equipment maintenance, including fire detector replacement. It can be planned and executed, and the warranty period of the fire detector can be extended.

Furthermore, since the prediction of non-fire alarm occurrences is a simple failure prediction model that does not require reliability engineering calculations based on Weibull curves or complicated calculations, it is highly practical.

(Effect of failure rate, proportion of non-fire alarms, and number of non-fire alarms)
In addition, the tunnel failure rate is calculated as the reciprocal of the average interval of non-fire alarms in the tunnel in the past, and the predetermined non-fire alarm occurrence rate of the fire detector is calculated based on past performance. The number of fire alarms is calculated as the number of fire alarms divided by the predetermined number of non-fire alarms, and the failure rate of the fire detector is multiplied by the failure rate of the tunnel and the ratio of non-fire alarms. The number of non-fire alarms is calculated as the value divided by the number of fire detectors, and the number of non-fire alarms is predicted as the value multiplied by the number of installed fire detectors, failure rate of fire detectors, and operating time. By obtaining the average interval of non-fire alarms, the predetermined number of non-fire alarms, and the predetermined number of non-fire alarms, the failure rate of fire detectors is determined, and the failure rate, number of installed units, and operating time of fire detectors are calculated. A simple calculation such as multiplying the number of fire detectors that generate a predetermined non-fire alarm can be accurately predicted and countermeasures can be taken.

For example, if N fire detectors installed in a tunnel fail n times at annual intervals of Y1, Y2, ... Yn based on past performance, the mean failure interval MTBF of the tunnel is:
MTBF=(Y1+Y2+...+Yn)/n
The failure rate λ' of the tunnel is
λ'=1/MTBF
It can be found by

In addition, the non-fire alarm occurrence rate P of the fire detector is
P=(Number of non-fire alarms Np)/(Number of non-fire alarms K)
It can be found as
The failure rate λ of a fire detector is
λ=(Tunnel failure rate λ'/Non-fire alarm occurrence rate P)/
Number of fire detectors N' in past performance
It can be found as

As a result, if the operating time is t, the predetermined number x of non-fire alarm fire detectors is:
x=λ・N・t
can be easily obtained as .

(Effects of cumulative installed number of non-fire alarm occurrence predictions)
In addition, the prediction method manages the cumulative number of fire detectors installed by adding up the number of fire detectors installed, which increases on a yearly basis, and the total number of non-fire alarms corresponding to the number of installed fire detectors in each year included in the cumulative number of installed fire detectors. is predicted as the cumulative number of non-fire alarm units installed.

It takes several years for motorways including tunnels where fire detectors have been installed to open completely, and during that time some sections have been completed and are now in use.As a result, the number of fire detectors installed has decreased, for example. Since the number of fire alarms increases on a yearly basis, it is necessary for the forecasting means to manage the cumulative number of installed units each year and predict the number of non-fire alarm units relative to the cumulative number of installed units each year.

To predict the number of non-fire alarm units for the cumulative number of installed units by year, calculate the number of non-fire alarm units for each year of installed units included in the cumulative number of installed units using different operating years (operating hours), and then calculate the sum of these units. is predicted as the number of non-fire alarms generated relative to the cumulative number of installed units.

For example, if the number of installed units increases by 300 units each year, such as 300 units in the first year, 600 units in the second year, and 900 units in the third year, for example, if the cumulative number of installed units in the third year is 900 units, For the number of non-fire alarm units, calculate the number of non-fire alarm units for each of 300 units that have been in operation for 3 years, 300 units that have been in operation for 2 years, and 300 units that have been in operation for 1 year, and calculate the total of these units as the cumulative installed number. This is predicted as the number of non-fire alarms compared to 900 vehicles.

(Effects of displaying non-fire alarm risk)
In addition, the notification means is designed to display that the risk of a predetermined non-fire alarm occurrence has increased based on the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction means, and prompt the inspection or replacement of fire detectors. When the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the method approaches the operating time when the number of non-fire alarms occurs reaches a predetermined value, and the risk of a predetermined non-fire alarm occurrence increases, it is possible to take action by formulating an inspection plan or replacement plan for the fire detection device. , it is possible to reduce the risk of a predetermined non-fire alarm occurring.

(Effects of R-type equipment)
In addition, the fire detectors installed in the tunnel were set with unique addresses, and the receiver board was designed to send and receive signals to and from the fire detector by specifying the address. It is possible to monitor fires by connecting multiple fire detectors to a signal line connected to the receiver panel, and the number of signal lines is reduced compared to P-type equipment, which connects the fire detectors to the receiver panel individually via signal lines. It becomes possible to make a fire judgment by acquiring, for example, an analog detection value of a fire detector.

(Effects of disaster prevention equipment)
In another form of the present invention, in disaster prevention equipment, a plurality of detectors for detecting predetermined abnormalities are installed in a monitoring area, and the detectors are connected to a signal line from a receiving board to monitor abnormalities. ,
Predict the number of false alarms depending on the operating time of the detectors based on the number of installed detectors, the failure rate of the detectors set based on past performance, and the false alarm occurrence rate of detectors set based on past performance. Since a prediction means and a notification means that sends an alarm based on the number of false alarms predicted by the prediction means are provided, disaster prevention equipment that monitors abnormalities with general fire detectors and gas leak detectors other than tunnel emergency equipment is now available. Also, based on past results, the number of false alarms that will generate a certain number of false alarms for the operating time of detectors such as fire detectors and gas leak detectors is constantly predicted, and replacement and inspection are performed based on the predicted number of false alarms. This makes it possible to take necessary measures such as this, making it possible to suppress and prevent false alarms that are difficult to handle and cause unexpected confusion.

Explanatory diagram showing an overview of tunnel emergency equipment Block diagram showing the functional configuration of the management server installed in the central monitoring center in Figure 1 An explanatory diagram showing a list of the installation status and prediction results of fire detectors in tunnel emergency equipment that predict the number of non-fire alarms. An explanatory diagram showing a list of details of the predicted value of the number of non-fire alarms generated by year in relation to the number of installed units by year in Figure 3 Explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen that inputs past failure records and calculates the failure rate and non-fire alarm occurrence rate Explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen displaying the prediction results of the number of non-fire alarms and the number of non-fire alarms based on the cumulative number of installed units over the past 10 years. An explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen in which the risk of non-fire alarm occurrence is graphically displayed based on the prediction results in Figure 6. An explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen that displays the predicted number of non-fire alarms based on the cumulative number of installed units over the years using a tunnel floor plan.

[Tunnel emergency equipment]
FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing an overview of tunnel emergency equipment.

(Basic concept of embodiment)
The tunnel emergency equipment according to this embodiment has fire detectors 14 for detecting fire installed at predetermined intervals in the longitudinal direction of the tunnel, and the fire detectors 14 are connected to a signal line 12 from a disaster prevention receiving board 10 that functions as a receiving board. and monitor the fire.

The fire detector 14 installed as tunnel emergency equipment may generate non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to during operation. Based on the installed number N of the detectors 14, the failure rate λ of the fire detectors 14 set based on past results, and the non-fire alarm generation rate P of the fire detectors 14 set based on past results, the fire detector 14 For example, predict the number of non-fire alarm units x according to the number of operating years, that is, the number of non-fire alarm units x for each year, and use the function of the alarm unit to predict the number of non-fire alarm units x predicted by the prediction unit. This is a measure to suppress non-fire alarms from the fire detector 14 by changing the threshold value and number of fire determinations.

For example, if a predetermined number N of fire detectors 14 are installed in a tunnel of a newly started motorway, a non-fire alarm occurs that is difficult to respond to depending on the number of years of operation. The number x is predicted as a constant, and the risk of the fire detector 14 generating a non-fire alarm that is difficult to respond to during operation is known, and when the number of fire detectors 14 approaches the number of years of operation when the risk increases, inspections of the fire detector 14 can be strengthened or replaced. This makes it possible to take measures such as formulating plans, and to suppress and prevent the frequent occurrence of tunnel traffic prohibition warnings due to non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to.

Here, it is assumed that the target for predicting the number of non-fire alarms is, for example, fire detectors 14 installed in a tunnel of a specific motorway, and fire detectors 14 of the same manufacturer. For example, the total number of fire detectors 14 installed in a tunnel on a specific motorway is 9,000, and there are three manufacturers, A, B, and C, each with 3,000 installed. If the total number of units is 3,000 units for Company A, 3,000 units for Company B, and 3,000 units for Company C, calculate the number of non-fire alarm units with unknown failure causes for each year of operation of the 3,000 units installed by each company. Predict.

The failure rate λ and non-fire alarm occurrence rate P of fire detectors based on past results used for prediction in this case are based on the past performance of non-fire alarm occurrences of fire detectors installed by each company. Use the determined value.

As a result, corporate entities that manage and operate expressways will be able to determine the number of installed fire detectors N and the number of years of operation (operating time t) for each manufacturer for each line of expressway for which they have started operation and management. When operation begins, predict the number x of non-fire alarms for each fiscal year, recognize the risk of issuing a tunnel entry warning due to the occurrence of non-fire alarms, and strengthen inspections or replace when this risk increases. It becomes possible to reduce risks by making plans, etc.

Furthermore, it takes a certain number of years for the construction and operation of a motorway by a corporation to open the entire line, and during that time, some sections of the road have been completed and put into operation. For this reason, the number of fire detectors 14 installed on motorways that are subject to management increases as the year progresses, from the time the first section of operation begins until the entire line is opened, and the cumulative number of fire detectors 14 installed each year increases. The number of installed units will increase.

In this case, the number of non-fire alarm fire detectors 14 needs to be predicted based on the cumulative number of installed units that increases every year, and each number of installed units in different years included in the cumulative number of installed units has a different number of operating years. (operating time) to determine the number of non-fire alarm units and predict the sum of these as the number of non-fire alarm units relative to the cumulative number of installed units.

(Summary of tunnel emergency equipment)
As shown in FIG. 1, an up-line tunnel 1a and a down-line tunnel 1b are constructed as tunnels for a motorway, and the up-line tunnel 1a and the down-line tunnel 1b are connected by an evacuation connecting shaft 2.

Inside the up-line tunnel 1a and the down-line tunnel 1b, fire detectors 14 are installed, for example, at intervals of 50 meters along the wall surface in the longitudinal direction of the tunnel. The fire detector 14 has overlapping detection areas on both sides of 50 meters on both sides, detects flames caused by a fire, and issues a fire alarm.

In addition, inside the up-line tunnel 1a and the down-line tunnel 1b, fire hydrant devices for fire hydrant equipment, automatic valve devices for water spray equipment, etc. are installed at intervals of, for example, 50 meters along the wall of the lifeguard passage.

The fire detectors 14 installed in the upstream tunnel 1a and the downstream tunnel 1b are connected to a signal line 12 drawn out from a disaster prevention receiver 10 installed at a monitoring center, etc., and exchange signals as R-type fire monitoring equipment. I do.

In the R-type fire monitoring equipment, a unique address is set for the fire detector 14, and the disaster prevention receiver 10 repeatedly transmits a call signal specifying the address in sequence at a predetermined period. 14, upon receiving a call signal specifying its own address, transmits a response signal containing fire detection information, failure information, etc. When the disaster prevention receiver panel 10 determines that there is a fire based on the response signal from the fire detector 14, it performs a predetermined fire alarm operation.

In addition, the R-type fire monitoring equipment has a method in which the fire detector 14 side judges a fire and sends fire detection information to the disaster prevention receiver 10 to output a fire alarm, and a method in which the fire detector 14 does not make a fire judgment. There is a method in which a fire detection signal detected in an analog manner is transmitted to the disaster prevention receiving board 10, and the disaster prevention receiving board 10 determines a fire and outputs a fire alarm.This embodiment uses either method. .

In addition, emergency equipment for the tunnel includes fire pump equipment 16, ventilation equipment 18, alarm display board equipment 20, radio rebroadcast equipment 22, TV monitoring equipment 24, lighting equipment 26, IG slave station equipment 28, etc. Except for the IG slave station equipment 28 which is connected via a data transmission line, the other equipment is individually connected to the disaster prevention receiving board 10 via a signal line group 15.

The ventilation equipment 18 is equipment that generates a ventilation flow in the longitudinal direction of the tunnel by giving energy to the air in the tunnel by high blowing wind velocity generated by the operation of a jet fan installed on the ceiling side of the tunnel.

The warning display board equipment 20 displays a tunnel entry prohibition warning on an electronic bulletin board installed at the tunnel entrance to notify users of the tunnel, and also displays an electronic display to notify users of the occurrence of a fire in the tunnel, the start of water spray, etc. This is a facility that notifies you by displaying it on a board.

The radio rebroadcasting equipment 22 is equipment that allows drivers and the like to receive information from road administrators inside the tunnel. The TV monitoring equipment 24 is equipment for checking the scale and location of a fire, operating water spray equipment, and grasping the situation inside the tunnel when conducting evacuation guidance. The lighting equipment 26 is equipment that drives and manages lighting equipment in the tunnel.

The IG slave station equipment 28 is a communication equipment that connects the disaster prevention receiver 10 and information equipment of the central monitoring center 32 that performs remote management via the network 30.

The central monitoring center 32 is provided with a proxy server 34, a management server 36, a management terminal 38, and the like. The proxy server 34 connects the network 30 and the LAN line 40 within the center, and the LAN line 40 is connected to a management server 36 and a management terminal 38. The proxy server 34 mutually transmits and receives packet signals between the network 30 and the LAN line 40 through protocol conversion.

The management server 36 receives monitoring information from the disaster prevention receiving board 10 of the tunnel monitoring center connected via the network 30, and outputs alarms such as fire alarms and failure alarms, and displays necessary management information.

Further, the management server 36 manages a plurality of tunnels including the illustrated tunnel, and performs overall management processing by being communicatively connected to the disaster prevention receiving panel 10 installed in each tunnel. The management terminal 38 functions as a client and can access the monitoring server 36 and use tunnel management information.

In this embodiment, a management server 36 provided in the central management center 32 is provided with a prediction unit that functions as a prediction unit and a notification unit.

[Management server]
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a management server provided in the central monitoring center of FIG. 1.

As shown in FIG. 2, the management server 36 is provided with a communication control unit 42, a server control unit 44, a display 46 with a touch panel, an operation unit 48 such as a keyboard and a mouse, and a storage unit 50, and includes, for example, a CPU, memory, It consists of a computer circuit equipped with various input/output ports.

The server control unit 44 is provided with a management control unit 52, a prediction unit 54, and a notification unit 56 as functions realized by executing programs by the CPU. The management control unit 52 acquires monitoring information from the disaster prevention receivers 10 installed in a plurality of tunnels to be managed, and performs processing control such as generation, display, storage, and notification of necessary management information.

The prediction unit 54 functions as a prediction means, and calculates the number N of fire detectors 14 installed in tunnels managed by the central monitoring center 32, the failure rate λ of the fire detectors 14 set based on past performance, Control is performed to predict the number x of non-fire alarms generated according to the operating time t of the fire detectors 14, based on the ratio P of non-fire alarms that are difficult for the fire detectors 14 to respond to, which is set based on past performance.

In addition, when the number x of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction unit 54 approaches the operating time when the number x of non-fire alarms occurs reaches a predetermined value, the alarm unit 56 notifies that the risk of non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to has increased, and By formulating and dealing with an inspection plan and a replacement plan for the detector 14, control is performed that can reduce the risk of non-fire alarms occurring that are difficult to respond to.

[Prediction of number of non-fire alarms]
The prediction unit 54 predicts the number x of non-fire alarms of the fire detectors 14 based on the past failure record of the fire detectors 14 installed in the tunnel to be managed using the following equation.
x=λ・N・t (Formula 1)
λ=(λ'・P)/N' (Formula 1')
here,
λ': Tunnel failure rate (cases/hr)
P: Number of non-fire alarm outputs per non-fire alarm (units/case)
N': Number of fire detectors 14 installed in the tunnel used for calculation of λ' (units)
λ: failure rate of fire detector 14 (/hr)
N: Number of installed fire detectors 14 (units)
t: Operating time of fire detector 14 (hr)
means.

(Tunnel failure rate λ')
The tunnel failure rate λ' is determined by the following equation as the reciprocal of the mean failure interval MTBF at which one or more difficult-to-handle non-fire alarms occur after the fire detector 14 is installed in the tunnel.
λ'=1/MTBF (Formula 2)
For example, as a tunnel's past failure record, if a non-fire alarm that was difficult to respond to occurred 6.8 years after installation, and then another non-fire alarm that was difficult to respond to occurred 4.1 years later, the average failure The interval MTBF is
MTBF = (6.8 years + 4.1 years)/2 times = 5.5 years/1 time. Expressing the mean time between failures MTBF at this time in terms of time, it is 5.5 years/1 time = 48,180 hr/1 time, so the tunnel failure rate λ' is:
λ'=1/48,180=0.000022 (cases/hr)
becomes.

(Number of non-fire alarm output units P per non-fire alarm)
The number P of non-fire alarm output devices per non-fire alarm event is the number Np of non-fire alarm output devices per number K of non-fire alarm events, and is given by the following equation.
P=(Number of non-fire alarms Np)/(Number of non-fire alarms K) (Formula 3)

For example, assuming that the number of non-fire alarms occurring Np = 3 and the number of non-fire alarms occurring K = 3 based on past failure records,
P = 3 units/3 cases = 1 unit/case is found.

Note that the number of non-fire alarms Np and the number of non-fire alarms K are basically the same value, but if a non-fire alarm occurs in multiple fire detectors 14 when a non-fire alarm occurs, The number of alarms Np is larger than the number K of non-fire alarms.

(Failure rate λ of fire detector 14)
Based on the past performance, from the above (Formula 2) and (Formula 3), λ' = 0.000022 (cases/hr)
P=1 (unit/case)
For example, if the number of fire detectors installed in the tunnel used to calculate the tunnel failure rate λ' is 3421, then the failure rate λ of the fire detector 14 is calculated by the above (Equation 1'). Based on λ={0.000022 (cases/hr)/1 (units/case)}/3421 units=6.6・(10 ^-9 )
is found.

(Prediction of number of non-fire alarms)
In this way, based on past performance, from the above (formula 1'), λ=6.6・(10 ^-9 )
Once obtained, calculate the number x of non-fire alarms for the operating time t based on the above (Equation 1) for the N fire detectors 14 installed in the tunnel of a specific motorway. It can be predicted.

(Example of prediction of number of non-fire alarms)
Figure 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a list of the installation status and prediction results of fire detectors in tunnel emergency equipment, which predicts the number of fire detectors that will generate non-fire alarms. It is an explanatory diagram showing a list of details of the predicted value of the number of non-fire alarms.

As shown in FIG. 3, in the prediction target equipment, the number of installed fire detectors 14 increases by 300 units every year, as shown in the cumulative number of installed units from the first year to the 10th year.

Therefore, if the number of non-fire alarm units in each year is x1, x2, ... x10, the operating hours for each year will vary for each 300 units, and the number of non-fire alarm units for each 300 units with different operating hours will be calculated. , we will find the sum of these.

First, in the first year, the number of installed units N = 300 units and the operating time t = 1 year = 8760 hr, so the number of non-fire alarm units in the first year x1 is:
x1=6.6・( ^10-9 )・(300 units)・(8760hr)
=0.0173
So, rounding off to the second decimal place, x1≒0.0
becomes.

The cumulative number of non-fire alarm units in the second year is 600 units, and the operating period is 300 units for one year and the remaining 300 units for two years, so the number of non-fire alarm units in the second year x2 is:
x2=6.6・( ^10-9 )・(300 units)・(8760hr)
+6.6・(10 ^-9 )・(300 units)・(17520hr)
=0.0519≒0.1
becomes. This is x2=x1+2・x1=3・x1
and can be expressed as a series of x1.

Therefore, the numbers x3 to x10 of non-fire alarms for the 3rd to 10th years are given in the following appendix.
x3 = 6・x1=0.1048≒0.1
x4 =10・x1=0.1730≒0.2
x5 =15・x1=0.2595≒0.3
x6 =21・x1=0.3633≒0.4
x7 =28・x1=0.4844≒0.5
x8 =36・x1=0.6288≒0.6
x9 =45・x1=0.7785≒0.8
x10=55・x1=0.9515≒1.0

FIG. 4 shows the number of non-fire alarm units by year in a binary manner with respect to the number of installed units for each elapsed year when the number x1 to x10 of non-fire alarm units is calculated as a summation. For example, for the first year,
N=300 units,
λ=0.000022 (hr/1 time)
P=0.00030 (/case)
The operating time t1 to t10 for fiscal years 1 to 10 is t1 = 8760 hr.
t2=17520hr
t3=26280hr
...
t10=87600hr
From the above (Formula 1), the number of non-fire alarms generated by year for the 1st to 10th years is calculated from 0.0017 to 0.0173. Similarly, for the 2nd to 10th years, the number of non-fire alarms generated by year for the 1st to 10th years is calculated.

If you add up the number of non-fire alarms by year for the 1st to 10th years calculated in this way for each elapsed year 1 to 10 (column direction) and find the total, this is the number of non-fire alarms for the 1st to 10th years. The value is the number of units x1 to x10.

(Number of non-fire alarms)
The number of non-fire alarms x1 to x10 predicted in this way for fiscal years 1 to 10 is a soft decision value that indicates the degree (likelihood) of non-fire alarm occurrences by having a decimal value between 0 and 1. However, in order to clearly indicate the predicted risk of non-fire alarm occurrence, it is desirable to use a hard decision value of 0 or 1. Therefore, as shown in Figure 4, the number of non-fire alarm occurrence vehicles x1 to x10 is calculated below the decimal point. Let the rounded integer value be the number of non-fire alarm occurrences Kx.

As a result, in the 1st to 7th years, the number of non-fire alarm incidents Kx = 0, but in the 8th to 10th years, the number of non-fire alarm incidents Kx = 1, and before entering the 7th year, It can be seen that measures are needed to control and prevent the occurrence.

(If the number of installed units is fixed from the beginning)
Figure 3 takes as an example the prediction of the number of non-fire alarms when the number of installed fire detectors increases with the number of years that have passed. With the cumulative number of installed units in 3 fixed at the initial number of installed units, the number of non-fire alarm units in the 1st to 10th years will be predicted and dealt with.

[Processing of non-fire alarm occurrence prediction by management server]
Figure 5 is an explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen that calculates the failure rate and non-fire alarm occurrence rate by inputting past failure records, and Figure 6 is the number of non-fire alarm occurrence units based on the cumulative number of installed units over the past 10 years. Figure 7 is an explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen where the predicted number of non-fire alarms is displayed, and Figure 7 is a non-fire alarm prediction screen where the risk of non-fire alarm occurrence is displayed graphically based on the prediction results of Figure 6. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing a non-fire alarm prediction screen in which a prediction result of the number of non-fire alarm occurrences based on the cumulative number of installed units over the years has been displayed using a tunnel plan view.

When the prediction unit 54 provided in the server control unit 44 of the management server 36 shown in FIG. It is displayed on the display 46.

The non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-1 in FIG. 5 is used to calculate the failure rate λ of the fire detector 14 and the non-fire alarm occurrence rate P based on past performance. At the top of the non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-1, a target route selection section 62 and a target manufacturer selection section 64 are provided. " is selected, and "Company A", for example, is selected as the target manufacturer.

The management server 36 stores road management information such as the number of fire detectors 14 installed in tunnels by manufacturer, the number Np of non-fire alarms, and the number K of non-fire alarms for each motorway under operational management. When a target route and target manufacturer are selected, "3241" vehicles are displayed as the number of installed vehicles 68 in the non-fire alarm occurrence record 66, and non-fire alarms 1 to 6 are displayed. Among the failure intervals 70-1 to 70-6 for the number of occurrences, "6.8" years is displayed for the first failure interval 70-1 based on past results, and "6.8" years is displayed for the second failure interval 70- 2, "4.1" year is displayed, "3" is displayed as the number 72 of non-fire alarm occurrences, and "3" is displayed as the number 74 of non-fire alarm occurrences.

In addition, the number of installed units 68, the failure interval 70-1 to 70-6, the number of non-fire alarm units 72, and the number of non-fire alarm units 74 based on the non-fire alarm record 66 are manually input by the user using the operation unit 48 such as a keyboard. You can also.

After confirming the settings for the number of installed units, failure interval, number of non-fire alarm units, and number of non-fire alarm incidents based on the non-fire alarm occurrence record 66, when the user touches the prediction execution button 76, the above (formula 2) is executed. The calculation of the failure rate λ and the non-fire alarm occurrence ratio P is performed using (Equation 3), and for example, "0.000022" and "0.003" are displayed as the calculation results in the failure rate 78 and the non-fire alarm occurrence ratio 80. Ru.

Next, when the user touches the "NEXT" button 82-1, the screen changes to the non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-2 shown in FIG. The non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-2 in FIG. 6 shows the non-fire alarm prediction result 84 obtained from the calculation results shown in FIG. The number of fire alarms and the number of non-fire alarms are displayed in a list.

Among the displayed prediction results 84, a column in which the number of non-fire alarm occurrences is 1 is indicated as a risk area 86 by displaying a predetermined background color indicated by diagonal lines, indicating that the risk of non-fire alarm occurrence is Highlight that it is high.

When the user touches the "NEXT" button 82-2 on the non-fire prediction screen 60-2, the screen transitions to the non-fire prediction screen 60-3 shown in FIG. The non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-3 in FIG. 7 displays a graph 88 in which the horizontal axis is the number of operating years and the vertical axis is the number of non-fire alarms and the number of non-fire alarms.

In the graph 88, the number x of non-fire alarm occurrences based on the prediction result 84 shown in the non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-2 of FIG. 6 is shown as a dotted line, and the number Kx of non-fire alarm occurrences is shown as a solid line. The number x of non-fire alarms (dotted line) increases non-linearly from 0.0 to 1.0 as the number of years of operation increases from 1 to 10, and the risk of non-fire alarms increases as the number of years of operation increases. I can understand the situation.

In addition, the solid line, the number of non-fire alarms, Kx, is 0 until the 7th year, but increases to 1 between the 7th and 8th years, and the risk of non-fire alarm occurrences increases from 7 to 8 years. You can see that it increases.

In addition, at the bottom of the non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-3, as advance notice response guidance 90, the risk of non-fire alarm occurrence increases from the seventh year onwards, and the formulation of a replacement plan for strengthening inspections and replacing fire detectors. Display prompts to prompt users to take action.

It should be noted that the displays of the non-fire alarm prediction screens 60-1 to 60-3 on the management server 36 shown in FIGS. can.

On the other hand, the non-fire alarm prediction screen 60-4 in FIG. 8 is divided into installation sections A to D in the plan view of the up-line tunnel 94 and the down-line tunnel 96. For example, section A is a place where 9 years have passed since 150 detectors were installed, section B is a place where 6 years have passed since 150 detectors were installed, and section C is a place where 150 detectors have been installed. This is the location where 3 years have passed since 150 detectors were installed, and Section D is the location where 3 years have passed since 300 detectors were installed. The tunnel map and fire detector installation locations are linked in advance.

Below the map, non-fire alarm prediction information 98 is displayed including the elapsed years, the number of installed units, and the predicted number of non-fire alarm units. With such a display, it is possible to visually grasp the relationship between the installation section in the tunnel and the predicted number of non-fire alarm vehicles.

[Detector false alarm prediction for disaster prevention equipment]
In another embodiment of the present invention, a disaster prevention facility is provided in which a plurality of detectors for detecting a predetermined abnormality are installed in a monitoring area, and the detectors are connected to a signal line from a receiving board to monitor abnormalities. Predicts the occurrence of false alarms from detectors installed in monitoring areas.

Such disaster prevention equipment includes, for example, fire alarm equipment in which a fire detector is installed in a monitoring area, and the functions of the prediction unit 54 and notification unit 56 provided in the monitoring server 36 in FIG. 2 control the fire receiver. provided in the department.

An analog fire detector equipped with a transmission function and set with a unique address is connected to the signal line from the fire receiver, and the analog fire detector transmits analog detection data of smoke concentration or temperature to the fire receiver. This applies to R-type fire alarm equipment, which determines fire based on

A prediction unit 54 provided in the control unit of the fire receiver calculates the number N of fire detectors installed, the failure rate λ of the fire detectors set based on past performance, and the failure rate λ of fire detectors set based on past performance. Based on the false alarm occurrence rate P, the number x of fire detectors where false alarms will occur is predicted according to the operating time of the fire detectors.

In addition, the notification unit 56 provided in the control unit of the fire receiver takes measures to suppress false alarms of fire detectors based on the number of false alarms of fire detectors predicted by the prediction unit A message will be displayed urging the user to take measures such as creating a plan to replace the sensor.

In addition to fire alarm equipment, disaster prevention equipment that predicts the occurrence of false alarms from detectors includes gas leak monitoring equipment that monitors gas leaks using gas leak alarms, and security equipment that detects intruders using a theft sensor and issues an alarm. The same can be applied to .

[Failure determination based on changes in reaction time during periodic tests]
In the above embodiment, the number of false alarms x of fire detectors installed in a tunnel is
x=Σ(λ・t・N)
However, it is also possible to make a failure determination that incorporates the reaction time of a fire detector during periodic tests. This judgment takes into account the fact that the longer it takes, the more failures occur in the number of machines.

That is, the ratio of reaction time RT to standard time ST for a certain process (RT/ST) is incorporated into Σ(λ・t・N), and the number of false alarms x is expressed as x=Σ{λ・t・N・Σ(RT /ST)}
Predict by

[Modification of the present invention]
(Non-fire alarm prediction by management server)
In the above embodiment, the management server of a corporate entity that operates and manages a motorway is provided with a prediction unit and a notification unit that predict and deal with the occurrence of non-fire alarms from fire detectors, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, a prediction unit and a notification unit may be provided in a server or the like owned by a manufacturer of fire detectors to predict the occurrence of non-fire alarms for fire detectors already installed in the company and perform risk management.

In addition, a prediction unit and a notification unit that predict and respond to non-fire alarm occurrences are installed in appropriate information terminals such as personal computers and tablets that are not communicatively connected to the disaster prevention receiving board 10 installed in the tunnel shown in Figure 1. It may be provided.

The number of non-fire alarms may be predicted at any appropriate time, such as annually, during periodic tests, or when detectors are replaced.

As the predetermined non-fire alarms, not only non-fire alarms that are difficult to respond to, but also non-fire alarms may be aggregated for each cause, and the number of non-fire alarms generated may be predicted for each predetermined cause.

In the above embodiment, the cumulative number of installed fire detectors is counted for each year, but the cumulative number of installed fire detectors may be counted for each installation period of fire detectors. With this configuration, it becomes possible to more accurately predict the occurrence of non-fire alarms. Furthermore, the tunnel map and the installation location of fire detectors may be linked, and the number of non-fire alarms may be predicted for each construction period and displayed at the same time as the map. With this configuration, it is possible to help determine which part of the tunnel needs to be dealt with based on the age of the construction and the number of fire detectors.

(Acquisition of internal information of fire detector)
Further, the disaster prevention reception board may acquire internal information of the fire detector. The timing at which internal information is acquired by the disaster prevention receiving board may be regular timing, such as during a communication test, or irregular timing, such as when the number of non-fire alarm units in the area exceeds a predetermined value. You can go either way.

The internal information of the fire detector includes various information such as a serial number, periodic test results, and fire judgment history.

A fire detector detects a fire and issues an alarm when multiple conditions are met. However, by acquiring and confirming internal information such as fire judgment history, it is possible to determine whether or not an alarm has been triggered. The number of times the conditions have been met can be ascertained for each fire detector. For fire detectors that did not trigger an alarm, but met a number of conditions for issuing an alarm, it is predicted that the occurrence of non-fire alarms, which are difficult to respond to, would be more likely.

When acquiring internal information at regular timing, it is used to correct the failure rate of fire detectors. For detectors that did not trigger an alarm in a predetermined period, but the number of times that some conditions for issuing an alarm were met exceeds a predetermined value, the failure rate λ of the fire detector is multiplied by a correction value α of 1 or more. .

If the number of times that an alarm is not triggered during a predetermined period but some conditions for issuing an alarm are satisfied does not exceed a predetermined value, the failure rate λ of the fire detector is multiplied by a correction value β of 1 or less.

The value is the sum of the number of non-fire alarms caused by fire detectors that did not generate an alarm but met some conditions for issuing an alarm over a predetermined value, and the number of non-fire alarms caused by fire detectors that did not exceed a predetermined value. The number of non-fire alarm vehicles in the tunnel is x'.
x'=α・λ・N1・t+β・λ・N2・t
N=N1+N2
here,
N1: The number of installed fire detectors 14 (units) in which the number of times that some conditions for issuing an alarm are met exceeds a predetermined value, although the number of times that the alarm does not occur during the predetermined period of time exceeds a predetermined value.
N2: The number of installed fire detectors 14 (units) that did not trigger an alarm during the predetermined period, but the number of times that some conditions for issuing an alarm were met did not exceed a predetermined value.

By using the corrected formula for predicting the number of non-fire alarm detectors, it is possible to predict the number of non-fire alarm detectors according to the status of installed fire detectors.

In addition, the correction requirements for the correction values α and β include not only the number of times that an alarm was not issued during a predetermined period but met some conditions for issuing an alarm, but also corrections based on serial numbers and manufacturing lots, and periodic tests. Correction may be performed based on the results.

Additionally, when acquiring internal information at irregular times, it is used to identify fire detectors that should be prioritized for replacement or inspection. In other words, the address of a fire detector that did not trigger an alarm in a predetermined period but met some conditions for triggering is more than a predetermined value, or displays the address on the tunnel map. The display format, such as color, is changed and displayed depending on the number of times that some conditions for issuing an alarm have been met, although not yet.

(others)
Furthermore, the present invention includes appropriate modifications that do not impair its objects and advantages, and is not limited by the numerical values shown in the above embodiments.

1a: Up line tunnel 1b: Down line tunnel 10: Disaster prevention receiving board 12: Signal line 14: Fire detector 16: Fire pump equipment 18: Ventilation equipment 20: Alarm display board equipment 22: Radio rebroadcast equipment 24: TV monitoring equipment 26: Lighting equipment 28: IG slave station equipment 30: Network 32: Central monitoring center 34: Proxy server 36: Management server 38: Management terminal 40: LAN line 42: Communication control unit 44: Server control unit 46: Display 48: Operation Section 50: Storage section 52: Management control section 54: Prediction section 56: Notification section 60-1 to 60-3: Non-fire alarm prediction screen

Claims (6)

A fire alarm system in which a plurality of fire detectors are installed in a monitoring area to detect fire, and the fire detectors are connected to a receiver panel to monitor fire,
Predicting the number of non-fire alarms according to the operating time of the fire detectors based on the number of installed fire detectors and the failure rate of the fire detectors set based on the history of non-fire alarms in the monitoring area. a prediction means to
Notification means for making a notification based on the number of non-fire alarms predicted by the prediction means;
Fire alarm equipment characterized by being equipped with .
In the fire alarm equipment according to claim 1,
The prediction means is
Determine the non-fire alarm occurrence rate as the value obtained by dividing the predetermined number of non-fire alarm occurrences of the fire detector by the predetermined number of non-fire alarm occurrences,
The failure rate of the fire detector is calculated by multiplying the reciprocal of the average interval of past non-fire alarms in the monitoring area by the non-fire alarm occurrence rate, divided by the number of installed fire detectors in the past performance. Find it as a value,
A fire alarm system characterized in that the number of non-fire alarms is predicted as a value obtained by multiplying the number of installed fire detectors , the failure rate of the fire detectors, and the operating time of the fire detectors .
In the fire alarm equipment according to claim 1,
The prediction means is
We manage the cumulative number of installed fire detectors by adding up the number of fire detectors installed at each specified period.
A fire alarm system characterized in that the sum of the number of non-fire alarm generating units corresponding to the number of installed units at each predetermined period included in the cumulative number of installed units is predicted as the number of non-fire alarm generating units of the cumulative installed number.
In the fire alarm equipment according to claim 1,
The notification means is characterized by displaying that the risk of a predetermined non-fire alarm occurrence has increased based on the number of non-fire alarm occurrences predicted by the prediction means, and prompting inspection or replacement of the fire detector. fire alarm equipment .
In the fire alarm equipment according to claim 1,
The fire detector is set with a unique address ,
The fire alarm equipment is characterized in that the receiver board transmits and receives signals to and from the fire detector by specifying the address.

Disaster prevention equipment in which a plurality of detectors for detecting a predetermined abnormality are installed in a monitoring area, and the detectors are connected to a receiver panel to monitor the abnormality,
Based on the number of installed detectors, the failure rate of the detector set based on past performance, and a predetermined false alarm occurrence rate of the detector set based on past performance, depending on the operating time of the detector. a prediction means for predicting the number of false alarms generated;
Notifying means for making a notification based on the number of false alarms predicted by the predicting means;
Equipped with
The false alarm occurrence rate is determined as a value obtained by dividing a predetermined number of false alarms of the detectors by a predetermined number of false alarms,
Determining the failure rate of the detector as a value obtained by multiplying the reciprocal of the average occurrence interval of past false alarms in the monitoring area by the false alarm occurrence rate, divided by the number of installed detectors in the past performance,
The disaster prevention equipment is characterized in that the number of false alarms is predicted as a value obtained by multiplying the number of installed detectors, the failure rate of the detectors, and the operating time of the detectors.

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