JP7215648B1 - Information processing device, power generation system, and information processing method - Google Patents

Abstract

An information processing device having a processor and a storage device, based on the ensemble method as a predicted amount of power generation at the installation location of the power generation facility on the target day when the power generation amount of the power generation facility using renewable energy is to be predicted From the calculated ensemble members, a first predicted power generation amount by control run and a plurality of second predicted power generation amounts smaller than the first predicted power generation amount are extracted, and the predicted power price on the target day and the first A planned charging amount for a storage battery that charges at least part of the power generation amount of the power generation facility on the target day is calculated based on the difference value between the predicted power generation amount and a predetermined second predicted power generation amount out of the second predicted power generation amounts. , Based on the predicted electricity price and the planned charging amount, the planned discharge amount for the storage battery on the target day is calculated, and the planned charge amount is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery, and the planned discharge amount is equal to or less than the planned charge amount. When the conditions are satisfied, the spot bid amount for the target date is determined. [Selection drawing] Fig. 5

Description

The present invention relates to an information processing device, a power generation system, and an information processing method.

Patent Literature 1 discloses a power operation system including a plurality of photovoltaic power generation devices connected to a power grid via the same power receiving end. Each of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation devices includes a solar cell for receiving sunlight and outputting power, a storage battery for accumulating power, a communication interface for communicating with other photovoltaic power generation devices, and power and a battery controller for controlling the storage of power and the output of power to the power system. A battery controller of a first photovoltaic device of the plurality of photovoltaic devices instructs the first photovoltaic device to output power to the power grid rather than store power for a first period of time. and, via the communication interface, to a second photovoltaic power generation device of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation devices for a second period delayed by a predetermined time from the first period, rather than accumulating power. Prioritize the output of power to the power grid. According to Patent Document 1, fluctuations in the amount of power sold to the power system by a plurality of photovoltaic power generation devices can be reduced.

Patent Literature 2 discloses a power storage system that inputs DC power to a PCS (Power Conditioning Subsystem) that stores DC power, converts the DC power to AC power, and supplies the AC power to a power system. The power storage system has a voltage range that matches the input voltage range of the PCS, and includes a storage battery that stores DC power, a power converter that converts the DC power into a predetermined DC power and charges the storage battery, and a DC power stored in the storage battery. A discharge switch that discharges power, a sensor that detects the input power of the PCS and outputs a detection signal, controls the converted power of the power converter based on the detection signal, and switches when the solar power generation device does not generate power. a control unit for controlling discharge of the storage battery by turning on the According to Patent Document 2, a storage battery is charged with only the surplus power of a solar power generation device, and the storage battery is discharged during a time period when the solar power generation device cannot generate power, such as at night, so that more sunlight can be generated. It is possible to supply derived energy and improve the operation of the PCS.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2011-109770 JP 2018-98952 A

However, in the inventions disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2, the surplus power of the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation device is charged in the storage battery during the daytime, etc., and the power charged in the storage battery is discharged to the power system at nighttime. A so-called time shift is performed, but it is not considered to avoid an imbalance in the event that the actual performance of the solar power generation system on the day differs from the plan for the solar power generation system contracted by the previous day, so it is based on the imbalance. There was a risk that payment would be required.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and one object of the present invention is to realize a time shift while avoiding an imbalance in a power generation facility using renewable energy.

One of the present inventions for achieving the above object is an information processing device having a processor and a storage device, wherein As the predicted power generation amount at the installation location of the power generation equipment, from among the ensemble members calculated based on the ensemble method, a first predicted power generation amount by control run and a plurality of second predicted power generation smaller than the first predicted power generation amount based on the predicted power price on the target day and a difference value between the first predicted power generation amount and a predetermined second predicted power generation amount out of the plurality of second predicted power generation amounts, the A planned charging amount for a storage battery that charges at least part of the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment on the target day is calculated, and a planned discharging amount for the storage battery on the target day is calculated based on the predicted power price and the planned charging amount. is calculated, and when a first condition is satisfied that the planned charging amount is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery and the planned discharging amount is equal to or less than the planned charging amount, the spot bid amount for the target day is determined.

According to the information processing apparatus of the present invention, under the FIP (Feed In Premium) system, it is possible to avoid imbalance and realize time shift at the same time by using renewable energy-based power generation equipment. . In other words, the profit from time-shifting can cover the penalty to be paid when an imbalance occurs.

Another aspect of the present invention for achieving the above object is an information processing device, which selects the second predicted power generation amount in ascending order to calculate the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount. By repeating the process until the first condition is satisfied, the predetermined second predicted power generation amount is obtained.

According to the information processing apparatus of the present invention, since the second predicted power generation amount is selected in ascending order until the first condition is satisfied, the optimum predicted value as the predetermined second predicted power generation amount can be obtained. It is possible to control the same quantity at the same time with high accuracy only by charging and discharging.

Another one of the present inventions for achieving the above object is an information processing device, which calculates a standard deviation between the ensemble members, and the standard deviation is greater than a predetermined reference value. When the small second condition is not satisfied, the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount are calculated.

According to the information processing apparatus of the present invention, even when the variation in the ensemble members is large and the reliability of the first prediction value is low, the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount that satisfy the first condition are calculated, and the storage battery It is possible to control the same amount at the same time only by charging and discharging.

Another one of the present inventions for achieving the above object is an information processing device, wherein when the second condition is satisfied, based on the first predicted power generation amount and the predicted electricity price, The planned charging amount is calculated, the planned discharging amount is calculated based on the predicted power price and the planned charging amount, and the spot bid amount is determined.

According to the information processing apparatus of the present invention, when the ensemble member variation is small and the reliability of the first prediction value is high, the planned charging amount and the It is possible to calculate the planned discharge amount and control the same amount at the same time only by charging and discharging the storage battery.

Another one of the present inventions for achieving the above object is an information processing device, wherein the spot is set so that the initial SOC (State Of Charge) of the storage battery on the target day is 0%. Decide on a bid amount.

According to the information processing apparatus of the present invention, it is possible to simplify the control of charging and discharging of the storage battery on the target day, and to ensure simultaneous control of the same amount.

In addition, the problems disclosed by the present application and their solutions will be clarified by the descriptions in the description of the mode for carrying out the invention, the descriptions in the drawings, and the like.

ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to implement|achieve a time shift simultaneously, avoiding an imbalance using the power generation equipment of a renewable energy utilization type.

1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power generation system according to this embodiment; FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the main functions of the monitoring control apparatus with which the power generation equipment which concerns on this embodiment is provided. It is a figure which shows an example of the solar radiation amount prediction value which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the track record value which concerns on this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the predicted power generation amount which concerns on this embodiment. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of hardware of an information processing device used to implement a monitoring control device according to an embodiment; FIG. 7 is a flow chart showing an example of processing of the supervisory control device according to the present embodiment when determining the spot bid amount for the target date by the day before the target date. It is a graph which shows an example of transition of the predicted electric power price which concerns on this embodiment. 7 is a graph showing an example of changes in predicted power generation amount and spot bid amount according to the present embodiment. 7 is a graph showing another example of changes in predicted power generation amount and spot bid amount according to the present embodiment.

At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of the present specification and the accompanying drawings. DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The present invention will now be described in accordance with one embodiment thereof with reference to the accompanying drawings. In addition, in this embodiment, the common code|symbol may be attached|subjected about the structure which is the same or similar, and the description may be abbreviate|omitted. In addition, in the present embodiment, various types of information may be described using expressions such as "information", "data", and "table", but various types of information may be expressed in data structures other than these. Also, in this embodiment, the letter "S" attached before the reference sign means a processing step.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power generation system 1 according to this embodiment. In this embodiment, for example, a photovoltaic power generation facility (hereinafter referred to as "PV power generation facility 20" (PV: Photo Voltaic)) is used as the power generation facility using renewable energy.

The power generation system 1 includes PV power generation equipment 20 and various equipment and devices for monitoring and controlling the PV power generation equipment 20 . Specifically, the power generation system 1 includes a storage battery 30 , a storage battery control device 40 , a weather information providing device 60 , a monitoring control device 100 , and a measurement device 70 in addition to the PV power generation equipment 20 .

The PV power generation equipment 20, the storage battery 30, the storage battery control device 40, the weather information providing device 60, the monitoring control device 100, and the measuring device 70 are connected to each other via the communication network 5 so as to enable two-way communication. The communication network 5 is, for example, a LAN (Local Area Network), a WAN (Wide Area Network), a dedicated line, a power line communication network, various public communication networks, and the like. In addition to the communication network 5, the PV power generation equipment 20, the storage battery 30, and the measuring device 70 are also connected to the electric power system 3 operated by general electric utilities and the like. The weather information providing device 60 is also connected to the Internet 6 in addition to the communication network 5 .

The PV power generation equipment 20 includes, for example, a photovoltaic power generation panel configured using a polycrystalline silicon power generation element, a single crystal silicon power generation element, a thin film power generation element, or the like. The PV power generation equipment 20 also includes an inverter or a power conditioning subsystem (PCS) that converts direct current generated by the photovoltaic panel into alternating current and supplies the power system 3 with the alternating current. In addition, the PV power generation equipment 20 is provided with a system interconnection protection device that detects the frequency of the power system 3, overvoltage/undervoltage, presence or absence of power failure, etc., and cuts off the connection with the power system 3. FIG.

The storage battery 30 is, for example, a lead battery, a lithium ion battery, a sodium sulfur battery, a nickel hydrogen battery, a redox flow battery, a fuel battery, a capacitor battery, or the like. The storage battery 30 includes an inverter or power conditioner for charging and discharging with the power system 3 . The storage battery 30 plays a role of charging surplus electric power with respect to the planned power generation amount of the PV power generation equipment 20 or discharging insufficient electric power.

The storage battery control device 40 performs charge control or discharge control (hereinafter referred to as “charge/discharge control”) of the storage battery 30 based on control instructions received from the monitoring control device 100 via the communication network 5 . The storage battery control device 40 performs charge/discharge control of the storage battery 30, for example, so that the amount of charge and the amount of discharge of the storage battery 30 on the target day are equal. Note that the storage battery 30 may also have the function of the storage battery control device 40 .

When the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation equipment 20 to the power system 3 exceeds a preset amount of power (planned amount), the monitoring control device 100 controls the storage battery so that the storage battery 30 is charged with the surplus power. A control instruction (charging instruction) for the storage battery 30 is sent to the device 40 . In addition, when the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation equipment 20 to the power grid 3 falls below the above-described planned value, the monitoring control device 100 causes the storage battery 30 to discharge the shortage of power to the power grid 3. A control instruction (discharge instruction) for the storage battery 30 is transmitted to the storage battery control device 40 .

The weather information providing device 60 is based on weather information provided from weather stations existing in the vicinity of the installation location of the PV power generation equipment 20, the weather information providing server 7 on the Internet 6, etc., for a predetermined future period (for example, the next day The amount of solar radiation at the location where the PV power generation equipment 20 is installed is predicted, and the predicted amount of solar radiation (hereinafter referred to as "predicted amount of solar radiation") is provided to the monitoring control device 100 at any time. In addition, the weather information providing device 60 is provided from the weather station or the weather information providing server 7, and the amount of solar radiation (hereinafter, " ) are accumulated and managed, and the measured solar radiation amount is provided to the monitoring control device 100 at any time.

The measuring device 70 measures information about the state of the electric power system 3 (frequency, overvoltage/undervoltage, presence or absence of power failure, etc.) and transmits the measured values to the monitoring control device 100 via the communication network 5 .

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing main functions of the monitoring control device 100 included in the power generation system 1 according to this embodiment. The monitoring control device 100 includes a storage unit 110, a solar radiation amount prediction value acquisition unit 120, an actual value management unit 125, a predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130, a predicted power price calculation unit 135, a planned charge amount calculation unit 140, and a planned discharge amount calculation unit. 145 , a power generation output fluctuation suppression unit 150 , and a planned charge/discharge amount comparison unit 155 .

Among the above functions, the storage unit 110 stores, as main information (data), a solar radiation amount prediction value 111, an actual value 112, a predicted power generation amount 113, a predicted electricity price 114, a charging planned amount 115, and a discharging planned amount 116. do.

FIG. 3A is a diagram showing an example of the solar radiation amount prediction value 111. FIG. The solar radiation amount prediction value 111 has a table structure consisting of a plurality of records having respective items of date and time 1111 and solar radiation amount prediction value 1112 . One record of the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 corresponds to the solar radiation amount prediction value 1112 in the prediction time zone (date and time 1111) of the prediction day. According to the solar radiation amount prediction value 111, the solar radiation amount prediction value for a predetermined future period (for example, the next day) can be obtained.

Returning to FIG. 2, among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the actual value 112 is the weather at the installation location of the PV power generation equipment 20, the measured value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation location, and the PV and the actual value of the power generation amount of the power generation equipment 20 (hereinafter referred to as "power generation amount actual value").

FIG. 3B is a diagram showing an example of the actual value 112. As shown in FIG. The actual value 112 has a table structure consisting of a plurality of records having items of date 1121 , weather 1122 , measured solar radiation amount 1123 , and actual power generation value 1124 . One record of the actual value 112 corresponds to actual measurement values (measured solar radiation amount value 1123, power generation actual value 1124, etc.) on a past day (date 1121). According to the actual value 112, it is possible to obtain the weather, the actual measured value of the amount of solar radiation, and the actual value of the power generation amount for a certain day in the past.

Returning to FIG. 2, among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the predicted power generation amount 113 is the power generation amount of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day, which is calculated based on the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 using the ensemble method. It is a predicted value.

FIG. 3C is a diagram showing an example of the predicted power generation amount 113. As shown in FIG. The predicted power generation amount 113 has a table structure consisting of a plurality of records each having items of a date and time 1131 and a predicted power generation amount 1132 . One record of the predicted power generation amount 113 corresponds to the predicted power generation amount 1132 in the prediction time zone (date and time 1131) of the prediction date. According to the predicted power generation amount 113, the predicted power generation amount for a predetermined future period (for example, the next day) can be obtained.

The ensemble method is a method of calculating multiple predicted values (ensemble members) by adding various variations (perturbations) that may occur in the initial value and subsequent processes when calculating the predicted value of a certain physical quantity. . A predicted value calculated without adding variation (perturbation) is called a control run. If the standard deviation of these multiple predicted values is relatively small, it is likely that the actual values are similar to those of the control run, and the standard deviation is relatively large. In such cases, it is expected that the actual values are likely to deviate from the control run values.

Returning to FIG. 2, among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the predicted power price 114 is the forecasted value of the solar radiation amount 111, the actual value 112, and the power price on the target day calculated based on the past performance of the power price. It is a predicted value.

Among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the planned charging amount 115 is calculated based on the predicted power generation amount 113 and the predicted power price 114, and is used to appropriately ( Plan value for the charge amount of the storage battery 30 on the target day.

Of the above information stored in the storage unit 110 , the planned discharge amount 116 is a planned value of the discharge amount for the storage battery 30 on the target day, which is calculated based on the predicted power price 114 and the planned charge amount 115 . In the present embodiment, the planned discharge amount 116 is calculated to be equal to or less than the planned charge amount 115 .

Among the functions shown in FIG. 2 , the solar radiation amount prediction value acquisition unit 120 acquires the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 on the control day from the weather information providing device 60 . The storage unit 110 stores the predicted solar radiation amount 111 acquired by the predicted solar radiation amount acquisition unit 120 .

The actual value management unit 125 manages the actual values 112 such as the measured solar radiation amount 1123 and the power generation actual value 1124 . The performance value management unit 125 manages, for example, the power generation performance value 1124 generated by the monitoring control device 100 itself. Moreover, the actual value management part 125 manages the measured solar radiation amount 1123 acquired from the weather information provision apparatus 60, for example. The storage unit 110 stores actual values 112 such as the measured solar radiation amount 1123 and the power generation actual value 1124 managed by the actual value management unit 125 .

The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates the predicted power generation amount 113 of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day based on the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 and the actual value 112 by the ensemble method. The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates the predicted power generation amount 113 based on, for example, the specifications and past performance of the PV power generation equipment 20 . Further, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 may calculate the predicted power generation amount 113 based on, for example, a model (machine learning model, rule base) that learns the relationship between the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 and the past performance. . In this embodiment, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates a plurality of predicted power generation amounts 113 from the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 based on, for example, the ensemble method. These multiple predicted power generation amounts 113 are also referred to as ensemble members. The storage unit 110 stores the predicted power generation amount 113 calculated by the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 . The monitoring and control device 100 selects the predicted power generation amount 113 from the predicted power generation amount 113A (first predicted power generation amount) by the control run that does not give an artificial error and the predicted power generation amount 113B that gives an artificial error. , and a predicted power generation amount 113B (second predicted power generation amount (<first predicted power generation amount)) smaller than the predicted power generation amount 113A.

For example, by the day before the target date, the predicted power price calculation unit 135 uses a power price prediction model based on the solar radiation forecast value 111, the actual value 112, and the past performance of the power price to estimate the power price on the target day. A predicted value (hereinafter referred to as "predicted power price 114") is calculated in units of a certain period of time (for example, 30 minutes). Storage unit 110 stores predicted power price 114 calculated by predicted power price calculation unit 135 .

The planned charging amount calculation unit 140 calculates a planned charging amount 115 when the storage battery 30 charges the surplus power of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day based on the predicted power generation amount 113 and the predicted power price 114 . The storage unit 110 stores the planned charging amount 115 calculated by the planned charging amount calculation unit 140 .

The planned discharge amount calculation unit 145 calculates the planned discharge amount 116 when the storage battery 30 discharges the charged power from the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day based on the predicted power generation amount 113 and the predicted power price 114 . The storage unit 110 stores the planned discharge amount 116 calculated by the planned discharge amount calculation unit 145 .

The planned charge/discharge amount comparison unit 155 compares the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116 so that the monitoring control device 100 can determine whether the planned discharge amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charge amount 115 .

The power generation output fluctuation suppression unit 150 monitors the power generation amount of the PV power generation equipment 20 and the information of the power system 3 (frequency, overvoltage/undervoltage, presence or absence of power failure, etc.) transmitted from the measuring device 70, and the storage battery 30 By charging the surplus power or discharging the shortage power with respect to the predicted power generation amount 113 of 20, the output fluctuation of the PV power generation equipment 20 is compensated, and the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation equipment 20 to the power system 3 is reduced. The charge/discharge of the storage battery 30 is controlled so as to be appropriate. The power generation output fluctuation suppressing unit 150 transmits a charging instruction or a discharging instruction for the above control to the storage battery control device 40 at any time.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing an example of hardware of the information processing device 10 used to implement the monitoring control device 100. As shown in FIG. The information processing device 10 includes a processor 11 , a main storage device 12 , an auxiliary storage device 13 , an input device 14 , an output device 15 and a communication device 16 . The information processing device 10 is, for example, a personal computer, an office computer, various server devices, a general-purpose machine, or the like. The information processing apparatus 10 is implemented in whole or in part using virtual information processing resources provided using virtualization technology, such as virtual servers provided by a cloud system. There may be. The monitoring control device 100 may be implemented using a plurality of information processing devices 10 that are communicatively connected.

The processor 11 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an MPU (Micro Processing Unit), a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an AI (Artificial Intelligence) chip, or the like. is constructed using

The main storage device 12 is a device that stores programs and data, and is, for example, a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a nonvolatile memory (NVRAM (Non Volatile RAM)), or the like.

The auxiliary storage device 13 is, for example, an SSD (Solid State Drive), hard disk drive, optical storage device (CD (Compact Disc), DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), etc.), storage system, IC card, SD card, optical recording They are a read/write device for a recording medium such as a medium, a storage area of a cloud server, and the like. Programs and data can be read into the auxiliary storage device 13 via a recording medium reading device or the communication device 16 . Programs and data stored in the auxiliary storage device 13 are read into the main storage device 12 as needed.

The input device 14 is an interface that receives input from the outside, and includes, for example, a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, card reader, pen-input tablet, voice input device, and the like.

The output device 15 is an interface for outputting various information such as processing progress and processing results. The output device 15 includes, for example, a display device (LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), graphic card, etc.) that visualizes the various information, a device that converts the various information into sound (audio output device (speaker, etc.)), It is a device (printing device, etc.) that converts various information into characters. Note that the information processing device 10 may be configured to input and output information with another device via the communication device 16 .

The input device 14 and the output device 15 constitute a user interface for receiving and presenting information with the user.

The communication device 16 is a device that realizes communication (wired communication or wireless communication) with another device via a communication infrastructure such as the communication network 5. For example, a NIC (Network Interface Card), a wireless communication module , a USB module, and the like.

For example, an operating system, a file system, a DBMS (Data Base Management System) (relational database, NoSQL, etc.), a KVS (Key-Value Store), etc. may be installed in the information processing apparatus 10 .

The functions provided by the monitoring control device 100 are obtained by the processor 11 of the information processing device 10 reading and executing a program stored in the main storage device 12, or by hardware (FPGA, ASIC, AI chip, etc.). The supervisory control device 100 stores the various information (data) described above, for example, as files managed by a database table or a file system.

FIG. 5 is a flow chart showing an example of the processing of the supervisory control device 100 when determining the spot bid amount for the target date by the day before the target date. Note that the monitoring control device 100 starts a series of processes when the administrator or the like of the power generation system 1 performs a predetermined start operation on the user interface of the monitoring control device 100 . Here, when a series of processes is started, in the monitoring control device 100, the solar radiation amount prediction value acquisition unit 120 acquires the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 for the target day from the weather information providing device 60, and the storage unit 110 stores the solar radiation amount Assume that the predicted value 111 is stored. In the monitoring and control device 100, the actual value management unit 125 manages the actual values 112 such as the actual measured solar radiation amount 1123 and the actual power generation value 1124 in the past. It is assumed that the actual value 112 such as 1124 is stored. Also, in the monitoring control device 100, it is assumed that a reference value to be compared with the following standard deviation has been calculated.

First, when the administrator or the like of the power generation system 1 performs a predetermined start operation on the user interface of the monitoring control device 100, the monitoring control device 100 obtains the solar radiation amount prediction value 111 for the target day. In the monitoring control device 100 , the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates the predicted power generation amount 113 of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day based on the ensemble method, and the storage unit 110 stores the predicted power generation amount 113 . Then, the monitoring control device 100 extracts the predicted power generation amount 113A based on the control run calculated without artificial error (S501).

Next, in the monitoring control device 100, the predicted electricity price calculation unit 135 calculates the predicted electricity price 114 for the target day, and the storage unit 110 stores the predicted electricity price 114 (S502).

Next, the supervisory control device 100 calculates the standard deviation indicating the degree of variation among the ensemble members (S503).

Next, the supervisory control device 100 determines whether the second condition that the standard deviation is smaller than the reference value is satisfied (S504). Note that the reference value to be compared with the standard deviation is a value that serves as an index for judging whether or not the predicted power generation amount 113 is highly reliable. For example, when the standard deviation is smaller than the reference value, the variation among the ensemble members is small and the reliability of the predicted power generation 113 is high. In other words, there is a high possibility that the actual power generation amount will be a value close to the control run. On the other hand, when the standard deviation is larger than the reference value, the variation among the ensemble members is large and the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113 is low. In other words, there is a high possibility that the actual power generation amount will deviate from the control run. The monitoring and control device 100 sets the reference value based on, for example, the actual measured value 1123 of the amount of solar radiation in the past, the actual value 1124 of the power generation amount, the degree of variation among the ensemble members, and the like. A computer or the like having AI, which is artificial intelligence, may be used instead of the monitoring control device 100 for setting the reference value.

When the monitoring control device 100 determines that the second condition that the standard deviation is smaller than the reference value is satisfied (S504: YES), the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113 is high, and the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113A by control run is also high. Since it is high, based on the information of the predicted power generation amount 113A and the predicted power price 114, the spot bid amount is determined by specializing in the following time shift (S505).

FIG. 6A is a graph showing an example of transition of the predicted electricity price 114, the horizontal axis indicates the time from 00:00 to 24:00 on the target day (hour and minute), and the vertical axis indicates the predicted electricity price 114 (yen). indicates For convenience of explanation, the start time (0 o'clock) of the target day is time t0, the time of sunrise is time t1, the time when the PV power generation equipment 20 starts sufficient power generation is time t2, and the PV power generation equipment 20 ends sufficient power generation. Let time t3 be the start time, time t5 be the time of sunset, and time t6 be the end time (24:00) of the target day. As is clear from FIG. 6A , the predicted power price 114 is lower because power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 is expected during the daytime, and the predicted power price 114 is lower because power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 is not expected at night. tends to be higher. In other words, for the administrator of the power generation system 1, the surplus power of the PV power generation equipment 20 is charged to the storage battery 30 during the daytime when the predicted power price 114 is low, and the night time when the predicted power price 114 is high. In addition, it is desirable to implement a time shift to discharge the power already charged in the storage battery 30 to the power system 3 .

FIG. 6B is a graph showing an example of changes in the predicted power generation amount 113A and the spot bid amount, where the horizontal axis indicates the time from 00:00 to 24:00 (hour and minute) on the target day, and the vertical axis indicates the predicted power generation amount. 113A (thin solid line) and spot bid volume (thick solid line) (KWh). It is assumed that the time intervals on the horizontal axes of FIGS. 6A and 6B are the same. Assume that the initial SOC (State Of Charge) of storage battery 30 at time t0 is 0%.

The processing of step S505 will be specifically described below with reference to FIGS. 6A and 6B.

Since the time t0 to t1 is a period before sunrise in which power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 is not expected (predicted power generation amount 113A=0 (KWh)), the monitoring control device 100 does not instruct the storage battery control device 40 to charge. , the storage battery 30 is not charged. Then, the supervisory control device 100 determines the spot bid amount to be zero during times t0 to t1.

The time t1 to t2 is a time period immediately after sunrise when sufficient power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot be expected. I will not do it. Then, the monitoring control device 100 determines the spot bid amount within a range not exceeding the predicted power generation amount 113A at times t1 to t2.

The time t2 to t3 is a time period in which sufficient power generation can be expected by the PV power generation equipment 20 during the day, and is also a time period in which the predicted power price 114 is low. , and the storage battery 30 is charged with the predicted power generation amount 113A of the power generated by the PV power generation equipment 20 as surplus power. Then, the supervisory control device 100 determines the spot bid amount to be zero during the times t2 to t3.

Since the time t3 to t4 is a time period before sunset when sufficient power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot be expected, the monitoring control device 100 does not instruct the storage battery control device 40 to charge, and the storage battery 30 does not perform the charging operation. It is assumed that Then, the supervisory control device 100 determines the spot bid amount within a range not exceeding the predicted power generation amount 113A at times t3 to t4. Note that the time t4 corresponds to the condition that the discharge amount of the storage battery 30 per fixed time is equal to or less than the capacity of the power conditioner, the planned charge amount 115 (solid oblique line) and the planned discharge amount 116 (dashed oblique line) of the storage battery 30 on the target day. is set between time t3 and time t5 so as to satisfy the condition that .

Time t4 to t5 is a time zone in which sufficient power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot be expected immediately before sunset, but since time t4 has been reached, the monitoring control device 100 instructs the storage battery control device 40 to discharge the storage battery. 30 discharges the already charged power to the power system 3 . Then, the monitoring control device 100 determines the amount of spot bidding at times t4 to t5 so that the amount of discharge of the storage battery 30 per fixed time is equal to or less than the capacity of the power conditioner.

Since the time t5 to t6 is a time zone after sunset when the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot expect to generate power, the monitoring control device 100 continues to instruct the storage battery control device 40 to discharge, and the storage battery 30 is already charged with power. is discharged to the power system 3. Then, the monitoring control device 100 determines the amount of spot bidding at times t5 to t6 such that the discharge amount of the storage battery 30 per fixed time period is equal to or less than the capacity of the power conditioner.

In the process of step S505, since the predicted power generation amount 113A is highly reliable, based on the information of the predicted power generation amount 113A and the predicted power price 114, the spot bid amount is determined by specializing only the time shift, and the PV power generation equipment 20 The charging and discharging of the storage battery 30 can be controlled so that the amount of power supplied from the power system 3 to the power system 3 is appropriate.

On the other hand, when the monitoring control device 100 determines that the second condition that the standard deviation is smaller than the reference value is not satisfied (S504: NO), the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113 is low, and the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113A by control run is low. Therefore, among a plurality of predicted power generation amounts 113B obtained by giving artificial errors to the predicted power generation amount 113 calculated by the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130, the predicted power generation amount 113B smaller than the predicted power generation amount 113A is selected. Extract (S506).

Next, the monitoring control device 100 selects the minimum predicted power generation amount 113B from among the plurality of predicted power generation amounts 113B (S507).

Next, the monitoring control device 100 calculates the planned charging amount 115 for the storage battery 30 based on the difference value (113A-113B) between the predicted power generation amounts 113A and 113B (S508).

Next, the monitoring control device 100 calculates the planned discharge amount 116 (≦the planned charge amount) for the storage battery 30 (S509).

Next, the monitoring control device 100 determines whether or not a first condition is satisfied that the planned charge amount 115 is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery 30 and the planned discharge amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charge amount 115 (S510).

When the monitoring control device 100 determines that the first condition that the planned charging amount 115 is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery 30 and the planned discharging amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charging amount 115 (S510: NO), a plurality of predictions are performed. From the power generation amount 113B, the next smallest predicted power generation amount 113B after the smallest predicted power generation amount 113B is selected (S511), and the above steps S508 to S510 are executed again. The monitoring control device 100 continues the steps S508 to S511 until it determines that the first condition that the planned charging amount 115 is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery 30 and the planned discharging amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charging amount 115 is satisfied. Execute the process repeatedly. In this embodiment, for convenience of explanation, the processes of steps S508 to S511 are executed twice.

On the other hand, when the monitoring control device 100 determines that the planned charging amount 115 is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery 30 and the planned discharging amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charging amount 115 (S510: YES), the first condition is satisfied. A spot bid amount is determined based on the information on the power generation amounts 113A and 113B and the predicted power price 114 (S512).

FIG. 6C is a graph showing an example of changes in predicted power generation amounts 113A and 113B and spot bid amounts, where the horizontal axis indicates the time from 00:00 to 24:00 (hour and minute) on the target day, and the vertical axis indicates the forecast. Power generation amounts 113A and 113B (thin solid lines) and spot bid amounts (thick solid lines) (KWh) are shown. For convenience of explanation, the time interval on the horizontal axis of FIG. 6C is assumed to be the same as the time interval on the horizontal axis of FIGS. 6A and 6B.

A series of processes from steps S506 to S512 will be specifically described below with reference to FIG. 6C.

Since the time t0 to t1 is a period before sunrise in which power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 is not expected (predicted power generation amount 113A=0 (KWh)), the monitoring control device 100 does not instruct the storage battery control device 40 to charge. , the storage battery 30 is not charged. Then, the supervisory control device 100 determines the spot bid amount to be zero during times t0 to t1.

The times t1 to t4 are time periods in which power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 can be expected based on the predicted power generation amount 113A, but the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113A is low. In other words, during times t1 to t4, there is a risk that the PV power generation equipment 20 will only generate power less than the predicted power generation 113A. It is undesirable to determine Therefore, the monitoring control device 100 selects the smallest predicted power generation amount 113B from among the plurality of predicted power generation amounts 113B, A planned charging amount 115 (solid oblique lines) for the storage battery 30 and a planned discharging amount 116 (broken oblique lines) are also calculated based on the surplus power amount exceeding the . The monitoring control device 100 selects the predicted power generation amount 113B in ascending order from the smallest predicted power generation amount 113B until the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116 become equal, and calculates the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116. repeat. Then, the monitoring control device 100 determines the spot bid amount at time t1 to t4 based on the predicted power generation amount 113B when the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116 become equal. In this embodiment, when calculating the difference value between the predicted power generation amounts 113A and 113B, the smallest predicted power generation amount 113B is selected from the plurality of predicted power generation amounts 113B. Any predicted power generation 113B between the quantity 113B may be selected instead of the minimum predicted power generation 113B. Note that the time t4 corresponds to the condition that the discharge amount of the storage battery 30 per fixed time is equal to or less than the capacity of the power conditioner, the planned charge amount 115 (solid oblique line) and the planned discharge amount 116 (dashed oblique line) of the storage battery 30 on the target day. is set between the time t3 and the time t5 so as to satisfy the condition that .theta. Since the first condition is that the planned discharge amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charge amount 115, in the present embodiment, the initial SOC of the storage battery 30 at the start of power generation of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day is 0%. Therefore, the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116 are equal.

The time t4 to t5 is a time zone in which sufficient power generation by the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot be expected just before sunset. Also, the time t5 to t6 is a time period after sunset when the PV power generation equipment 20 cannot expect power generation. Therefore, the monitoring control device 100 instructs the storage battery control device 40 to discharge in the period after time t4, and the storage battery 30 discharges the already charged power to the power system 3 . Then, the monitoring control device 100 determines the amount of spot bidding at times t4 to t6 so that the discharge amount of the storage battery 30 per fixed time is equal to or less than the capacity of the power conditioner.

In the processing after step S506, since the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113A is low, spot bidding is performed at a point where the planned charging amount 115 and the planned discharging amount 116 are equal based on the information on the predicted power generation amounts 113A and 113B and the predicted power price 114. It is possible to determine the amount and control the charge/discharge of the storage battery 30 so that the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation facility 20 to the power system 3 is appropriate.

As described above, the information processing device 10 used to realize the monitoring control device 100 has the processor 11 and storage devices (main storage device 12 and auxiliary storage device 13), and predicts the power generation amount of the PV power generation equipment 20. From among the ensemble members calculated based on the ensemble method, the predicted power generation amount 113A by the control run and the predicted power generation amount 113A than the predicted power generation amount 113A A plurality of small predicted power generation amounts 113B are extracted, and based on the predicted power price 114 on the target day and the difference value between the predicted power generation amount 113A and the minimum predicted power generation amount 113B, the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day A planned charging amount 115 (solid oblique lines in FIG. 6C) for the storage battery 30 that charges at least part of the generated power is calculated, and based on the predicted power price 114 and the planned charging amount 115, a planned discharge amount 116 ( 6C) is calculated, and when the planned charging amount 115 is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery 30 and the planned discharging amount 116 is equal to or less than the planned charging amount 115, the first condition is satisfied, the spot bid amount on the target day. to decide.

According to the information processing device 10 , it is possible to avoid the imbalance and realize the time shift at the same time by using the PV power generation equipment 20 .

Further, the information processing apparatus 10 obtains the predicted power generation amount 113B by repeating the process of selecting the predicted power generation amount 113B in ascending order and calculating the planned charge amount 115 and the planned discharge amount 116 until the first condition is satisfied.

According to the information processing device 10, since the predicted power generation amount 113B is selected in ascending order until the first condition is satisfied, the optimum predicted value can be obtained as the predicted power generation amount 113B. It is possible to control the same amount at the same time with a high

Further, the information processing device 10 calculates the standard deviation indicating the variation among the ensemble members, and when the second condition that the standard deviation is smaller than a predetermined reference value is not satisfied, the planned charge amount 115 and the discharge A planned amount 116 is calculated.

According to the information processing apparatus 10, even when the variation in the ensemble members is large and the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113B is low, the planned charging amount 115 and the planned discharging amount 116 that satisfy the first condition are calculated, and the storage battery It is possible to control the same amount at the same time only by charging and discharging 30 times.

Further, when the second condition is satisfied, the information processing apparatus 10 calculates the planned charging amount 115 (the solid hatched line in FIG. 6B) based on the predicted power generation amount 113A and the predicted power price 114, and Based on the quantity 115, the planned discharge quantity 116 (broken diagonal line in FIG. 6B) is calculated to determine the spot bid quantity.

According to the information processing device 10, when the ensemble member variation is small and the reliability of the predicted power generation amount 113A is high, the planned charging amount 115 and the discharging amount are calculated without considering whether the first condition is satisfied. It is possible to calculate the planned amount 116 and control the same amount at the same time only by charging and discharging the storage battery 30 .

Further, the information processing device 10 determines the spot bid amount so that the initial SOC of the storage battery 30 at the start of power generation of the PV power generation equipment 20 on the target day is 0%.

According to the information processing device 10, it is possible to simplify the control of charging and discharging of the storage battery 30 on the target day, and to ensure simultaneous control of the same amount.

In addition, the problems disclosed by the present application and their solutions will be clarified by the descriptions in the description of the mode for carrying out the invention, the descriptions in the drawings, and the like.

In addition, this embodiment is for facilitating understanding of the present invention, and is not for limiting and interpreting the present invention. The present invention may be modified and improved without departing from its spirit, and the present invention also includes equivalents thereof. For example, the power generation facility using renewable energy of the present invention may be a wind power generation facility in addition to the PV power generation facility 20 .

1 power generation system 3 power system 5 communication network 7 weather information providing server 10 information processing device 11 processor 12 main storage device 13 auxiliary storage device 14 input device 15 output device 16 communication device 20 PV power generation equipment 30 storage battery 40 storage battery control device 60 weather information Provision device 70 Measurement device 100 Monitoring control device 110 Storage unit 120 Solar radiation amount prediction value acquisition unit 125 Actual value management unit 130 Predicted power generation amount calculation unit 135 Predicted power price calculation unit 140 Planned charging amount calculation unit 145 Planned discharge amount calculation unit 150 Power generation Output fluctuation suppression unit 155 Planned charge/discharge amount comparison unit

Claims (10)

having a processor and a memory device;
From among the ensemble members calculated based on the ensemble method as the predicted amount of power generation at the installation location of the power generation facility on the target day when the power generation amount of the renewable energy utilization type power generation facility is to be predicted, the first extracting a predicted power generation amount and a plurality of second predicted power generation amounts that are smaller than the first predicted power generation amount;
Based on the predicted electricity price on the target day and the difference value between the first predicted power generation amount and a predetermined second predicted power generation amount out of the plurality of second predicted power generation amounts, the power generation facility on the target day calculating a planned charging amount for a storage battery that charges at least part of the generated power;
calculating a planned discharge amount for the storage battery on the target day based on the predicted electricity price and the planned charge amount;
When a first condition is satisfied that the planned charging amount is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery and the planned discharging amount is equal to or less than the planned charging amount, a spot bid amount for the target date is determined.
Information processing equipment. The information processing device according to claim 1,
By repeating the process of selecting the second predicted power generation amount in ascending order and calculating the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount until the first condition is satisfied, the predetermined second predicted power generation amount is obtained.
Information processing equipment. The information processing device according to claim 1,
calculating the standard deviation among the ensemble members;
When the standard deviation does not satisfy a second condition that is smaller than a predetermined reference value, calculating the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount;
Information processing equipment. The information processing device according to claim 3,
When the second condition is satisfied, the planned charge amount is calculated based on the first predicted power generation amount and the predicted power price, and the planned discharge amount is calculated based on the predicted power price and the planned charge amount. calculating and determining the spot bid amount;
Information processing equipment. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 4,
determining the spot bid amount so that the initial state of charge (SOC) of the storage battery at the start of power generation on the day of the power generation facility is 0%;
Information processing equipment. Power generation equipment using renewable energy,
a storage battery that charges at least part of the power generation amount of the power generation equipment;
Control run from ensemble members calculated based on the ensemble method as the predicted amount of power generation at the installation location of the power generation facility on the target day on which the power generation amount of the power generation facility is to be predicted. A first predicted power generation amount and a plurality of second predicted power generation amounts smaller than the first predicted power generation amount are extracted, and the predicted power price on the target day, the first predicted power generation amount, and the plurality of second calculating a planned charging amount for a storage battery that charges at least a portion of the power generation amount of the power generation facility on the target day, based on the difference value between the second predicted power generation amount and a predetermined second predicted power generation amount of the second predicted power generation amount; A planned discharge amount for the storage battery on the target day is calculated based on the electricity price and the planned charge amount, and the planned charge amount is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery, and the planned discharge amount is equal to or less than the planned charge amount. an information processing device that determines a spot bid amount for the target date when a certain first condition is satisfied;
power generation system. An information processing device having a processor and a storage device,
From among the ensemble members calculated based on the ensemble method as the predicted amount of power generation at the installation location of the power generation facility on the target day when the power generation amount of the renewable energy utilization type power generation facility is to be predicted, the first extracting a predicted power generation amount and a plurality of second predicted power generation amounts that are smaller than the first predicted power generation amount;
Based on the predicted electricity price on the target day and the difference value between the first predicted power generation amount and a predetermined second predicted power generation amount out of the plurality of second predicted power generation amounts, the power generation facility on the target day calculating a planned charging amount for a storage battery that charges at least part of the generated power;
calculating a planned discharge amount for the storage battery on the target day based on the predicted electricity price and the planned charge amount;
When a first condition is satisfied that the planned charging amount is equal to or less than the capacity of the storage battery and the planned discharging amount is equal to or less than the planned charging amount, a spot bid amount for the target date is determined.
Information processing methods. The information processing method according to claim 7,
By repeating the process of selecting the second predicted power generation amount in ascending order and calculating the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount until the first condition is satisfied, the predetermined second predicted power generation amount is obtained.
Information processing methods. The information processing method according to claim 7,
calculating the standard deviation among the ensemble members;
When the standard deviation does not satisfy a second condition that is smaller than a predetermined reference value, calculating the planned charge amount and the planned discharge amount;
Information processing methods. The information processing device according to claim 9,
When the second condition is satisfied, the planned charge amount is calculated based on the first predicted power generation amount and the predicted power price, and the planned discharge amount is calculated based on the predicted power price and the planned charge amount. calculating and determining the spot bid amount;
Information processing methods.

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