JP6935040B2 - Parts management system, parts management method and parts management program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a technique for predicting the demand for maintenance parts.

In product maintenance service, each part of the product is replaced as needed. Therefore, in order to prevent shortage of each part, it is important to accurately predict the demand of each part.
There are multiple types of maintenance service contracts. For example, there are full maintenance contracts and parts oil grease contracts. In terms of parts replacement, the full maintenance contract includes replacement of consumable parts and replacement of parts other than consumable parts. On the other hand, in the parts oil grease contract, the replacement of consumable parts is included in the contract in terms of parts replacement, but the replacement of parts other than consumable parts is not included in the contract. Under the parts oil grease contract, a separate replacement fee will be charged for replacement of parts other than consumable parts.
Therefore, the demand for each part differs depending on the type of maintenance contract.

Patent Document 1 discloses a parts inventory management system for holding vehicle parts having an appropriate inventory amount at a plurality of bases.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2005-75527

The system disclosed in Patent Document 1 predicts future demand based on past order trends. However, it is not possible to determine the probability of demand generation by quantity with respect to the future demand for which the trend is predicted. Moreover, since the type of maintenance contract is not taken into consideration, it is not possible to accurately predict the demand for each part that differs depending on the type of maintenance contract.

An object of the present invention is to improve the accuracy of forecasting demand for each component.

The parts management system of the present invention predicts the probability that demand for maintenance parts provided in a maintenance product will occur as the demand accuracy.
The parts management system
A maintenance contract identification unit that specifies the type of maintenance contract for a target product, which is one maintenance product, based on a maintenance management file that indicates the type of maintenance contract for each of one or more maintenance products.
Up to the forecast target date for the target part, which is one maintenance part included in the target product, based on the delivery record file showing the start date of use of each of the one or more maintenance parts included in the one or more maintenance products. The number of days used calculation unit that calculates the number of days used
From the demand accuracy database that has demand accuracy data showing the relationship between the number of days of use and demand accuracy for each set of maintenance contract type and maintenance part type, the type of maintenance contract for the target product and the type of the target part can be obtained. Demand accuracy data selection unit that selects demand accuracy data for a set,
It is provided with a demand accuracy calculation unit that calculates the demand accuracy of the target part on the forecast target date based on the selected demand accuracy data and the number of days of use of the target part.

According to the present invention, since the demand accuracy data corresponding to the type of maintenance contract is used, the accuracy of forecasting the demand for each component can be improved.

The block diagram of the parts management system 100 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the demand accuracy management unit 210 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the order planning support unit 220 in Embodiment 1. The block diagram of the stock plan support part 230 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the storage part 290 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the maintenance management file 111 in Embodiment 1. FIG. FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of a delivery record file 112 according to the first embodiment. The block diagram of the order management file 113 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the manufacturing lead time file 114 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the delay record file 115 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the exchange plan file 116 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the shortage management file 117 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the level definition file 121 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the base position file 122 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the base capacity file 123 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the component capacity file 124 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the inventory management file 125 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the demand accuracy database 129 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The flowchart of the part management method in Embodiment 1. The figure which shows the demand accuracy data 131 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows the ordering plan screen 132 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows the mode selection screen 133 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows the stock plan screen 134 in Embodiment 1. FIG. The flowchart of the demand accuracy management process (S100) in Embodiment 1. The flowchart of the demand accuracy correction process (S150) in Embodiment 1. The flowchart of the demand accuracy correction process (S150) in Embodiment 1. The flowchart of the ordering plan support process (S200) in Embodiment 1. The flowchart of the stock plan support process (S300) in Embodiment 1. FIG. 3 is a hardware configuration diagram of the parts management device 200 according to the first embodiment.

In embodiments and drawings, the same or corresponding elements are designated by the same reference numerals. The description of the elements with the same reference numerals as the described elements will be omitted or abbreviated as appropriate. The arrows in the figure mainly indicate the flow of data or the flow of processing.

Embodiment 1.
The parts management system 100 will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 29.

*** Explanation of configuration ***
The configuration of the parts management system 100 will be described with reference to FIG.
The parts management system 100 includes a parts management device 200.
The component management device 200 may be composed of a plurality of devices.

The component management device 200 is a computer including hardware such as a processor 201, a memory 202, an auxiliary storage device 203, a communication device 204, and an input / output interface 205. These hardware are connected to each other via signal lines.

The processor 201 is an IC that performs arithmetic processing and controls other hardware. For example, processor 201 is a CPU, DSP or GPU.
IC is an abbreviation for Integrated Circuit.
CPU is an abbreviation for Central Processing Unit.
DSP is an abbreviation for Digital Signal Processor.
GPU is an abbreviation for Graphics Processing Unit.

The memory 202 is a volatile storage device. The memory 202 is also referred to as a main storage device or a main memory. For example, the memory 202 is a RAM. The data stored in the memory 202 is stored in the auxiliary storage device 203 as needed.
RAM is an abbreviation for Random Access Memory.

The auxiliary storage device 203 is a non-volatile storage device. For example, the auxiliary storage device 203 is a ROM, HDD, or flash memory. The data stored in the auxiliary storage device 203 is loaded into the memory 202 as needed.
ROM is an abbreviation for Read Only Memory.
HDD is an abbreviation for Hard Disk Drive.

Communication device 204 is a receiver and a transmitter. For example, the communication device 204 is a communication chip or NIC.
NIC is an abbreviation for Network Interface Card.

The input / output interface 205 is a port to which an input device and an output device are connected. For example, the input / output interface 205 is a USB terminal, the input device is a keyboard and a mouse, and the output device is a display.
USB is an abbreviation for Universal Serial Bus.

The parts management device 200 includes elements such as a demand accuracy management unit 210, an order planning support unit 220, and a stock planning support unit 230. These elements are realized in software.

The auxiliary storage device 203 stores a parts management program for operating the computer as the demand accuracy management unit 210, the order planning support unit 220, and the stock planning support unit 230. The component management program is loaded into the memory 202 and executed by the processor 201.
The OS is further stored in the auxiliary storage device 203. At least part of the OS is loaded into memory 202 and executed by processor 201.
The processor 201 executes the parts management program while executing the OS.
OS is an abbreviation for Operating System.

The input / output data of the parts management program is stored in the storage unit 290.
The memory 202 functions as a storage unit 290. However, a storage device such as an auxiliary storage device 203, a register in the processor 201, and a cache memory in the processor 201 may function as a storage unit 290 instead of the memory 202 or together with the memory 202.

The component management device 200 may include a plurality of processors that replace the processor 201. The plurality of processors share the role of the processor 201.

The component management program can be computer-readablely recorded (stored) on a non-volatile recording medium such as an optical disk or a flash memory.

The configuration of the demand accuracy management unit 210 will be described with reference to FIG.
The demand accuracy management unit 210 includes a maintenance contract specifying unit 211, a number of days used calculation unit 212, a demand accuracy data selection unit 213, a demand accuracy calculation unit 214, and a demand accuracy correction unit 215.
The function of each element of the demand accuracy management unit 210 will be described later.

The configuration of the order planning support unit 220 will be described with reference to FIG.
The ordering plan support unit 220 includes an order quantity forecasting unit 221, an ordering plan presenting unit 222, and an order quantity receiving unit 223.
The function of each element of the order planning support unit 220 will be described later.

The configuration of the stock planning support unit 230 will be described with reference to FIG.
The stock plan support unit 230 includes a mode reception unit 231, a stock number calculation unit 232, and a stock plan presentation unit 233.
The function of each element of the stock planning support unit 230 will be described later.

The configuration of the storage unit 290 will be described with reference to FIG.
The storage unit 290 stores a maintenance management file 111, a delivery record file 112, an order management file 113, a manufacturing lead time file 114, a delay record file 115, a replacement plan file 116, and a shortage management file 117. However, these files may be managed by an external server and referenced by accessing the external server.
The storage unit 290 stores a level definition file 121, a base position file 122, a base capacity file 123, a component capacity file 124, and an inventory management file 125. However, these files may be managed by an external server and referenced by accessing the external server.
The demand accuracy database 129 is stored in the storage unit 290. However, the demand accuracy database 129 may be managed by an external server and referred to by accessing the external server.

The configuration of the maintenance management file 111 will be described with reference to FIG.
The maintenance management file 111 indicates the type of maintenance contract for each of the one or more maintenance products.
A maintenance product is a product that is subject to maintenance. Each maintenance product comprises one or more maintenance parts.
Maintenance parts are parts that are included in maintenance products.

The maintenance management file 111 has maintenance management data for each maintenance product. Specifically, the maintenance management file 111 is a table, and the maintenance management data is a record.
The maintenance management data has columns for "maintenance base", "product management number", "product specifications", and "contract type". The columns are associated with each other.
A "maintenance base" is a base in charge of maintenance of maintenance products.
The "product control number" identifies the maintenance product.
"Product specifications" are specifications of maintenance products.
"Contract type" is a type of maintenance contract for a maintenance product.

For example, the types of maintenance contracts include "FM" and "POG".
"FM" means a full maintenance contract. In terms of parts replacement, the service of a full maintenance contract includes replacement of consumable parts and replacement of parts other than consumable parts.
"POG" means a parts oil grease contract. In the parts oil grease contract service, replacement of consumable parts is included in the contract in terms of parts replacement, but replacement of parts other than consumable parts is not included in the contract. Under the parts oil grease contract, a separate replacement fee will be charged for replacement of parts other than consumable parts.

The configuration of the delivery record file 112 will be described with reference to FIG. 7.
The delivery record file 112 indicates the start date of use for each maintenance part.
The delivery record file 112 has delivery record data for each maintenance part. Specifically, the issue record file 112 is a table, and the issue record data is a record.
The delivery record data has columns for "product control number", "part type", "delivery date", and "replacement date". The columns are associated with each other.
"Part type" is a type of maintenance part.
The “delivery date” is the date on which the maintenance parts are delivered, and corresponds to the start date of use of the maintenance parts.
The "replacement date" is the date on which the maintenance parts are replaced, and corresponds to the start date of use of the maintenance parts.
Either the "delivery date" or the "replacement date" may be used as the start date of use of the maintenance parts.

The configuration of the order management file 113 will be described with reference to FIG.
The order management file 113 indicates the order date for each maintenance part.
The order management file 113 has order management data for each maintenance part. Specifically, the order management file 113 is a table, and the order management data is a record.
The order management data has columns for "product control number", "part type", "order date", and "scheduled delivery date". The columns are associated with each other.
The "ordering date" is the date on which the maintenance parts are ordered.
The "scheduled delivery date" is the date on which the maintenance parts are delivered.

The configuration of the manufacturing lead time file 114 will be described with reference to FIG.
The manufacturing lead time file 114 shows the manufacturing lead time for each type of maintenance component.
The manufacturing lead time file 114 has manufacturing lead time data for each type of maintenance component. Specifically, the manufacturing lead time file 114 is a table, and the manufacturing lead time data is a record.
The manufacturing lead time data has columns for "part type" and "manufacturing lead time", respectively. The columns are associated with each other.
The "manufacturing lead time" is the time required to manufacture maintenance parts.

The configuration of the delay record file 115 will be described with reference to FIG.
The delay record file 115 shows the number of days delayed in the past delivery for each type of maintenance part.
The delay record file 115 has delay record data for each type of maintenance component. Specifically, the delay record file 115 is a table, and the delay record data is a record.
The delay actual data has columns for "part type" and "delay days". The columns are associated with each other.
"Delayed days" is the longest delayed days in past deliveries.

The configuration of the exchange plan file 116 will be described with reference to FIG.
The replacement plan file 116 shows a replacement plan for each maintenance part.
The replacement plan file 116 has replacement plan data for each maintenance part. Specifically, the exchange plan file 116 is a table, and the exchange plan data is a record.
The replacement plan data has columns for "product control number", "part type", and "replacement plan date". The columns are associated with each other.
The "planned replacement date" is the date planned as the replacement date for maintenance parts.

The configuration of the shortage management file 117 will be described with reference to FIG.
The shortage management file 117 indicates the number of shortages for each type of maintenance part.
The shortage management file 117 has shortage management data for each type of maintenance part. Specifically, the shortage management file 117 is a table, and the shortage management data is a record.
The out-of-stock management data has columns for "part type", "order date", "order quantity", and "out-of-stock quantity". The columns are associated with each other.
The "number of orders" is the number of maintenance parts ordered.
The "out of stock" is the number of maintenance parts that are missing.

The structure of the level definition file 121 will be described with reference to FIG.
The level definition file 121 shows the accuracy range for each demand level.
The demand level indicates the high demand for maintenance parts.
The accuracy range is the range of demand accuracy.
Demand accuracy is the accuracy with which demand for maintenance parts will occur. Demand accuracy corresponds to the delivery rate of maintenance parts, the failure rate of maintenance parts, and the replacement rate of maintenance parts. The delivery rate of maintenance parts is the probability that maintenance parts will be delivered. The failure rate of maintenance parts is the probability that maintenance parts will fail. The replacement rate of maintenance parts is the probability that maintenance parts will be replaced.

The level definition file 121 has level definition data for each demand level. Specifically, the level definition file 121 is a table, and the level definition data is a record.
The level definition data has columns for "demand level" and "accuracy threshold", respectively. The columns are associated with each other.

The range of the demand accuracy x at the demand level “high” is “80% <x ≦ 100%”.
The range of demand accuracy x at the demand level “medium” also includes the range at the demand level “high”. That is, the range of the demand accuracy x at the demand level “medium” is “50% <x ≦ 80%” and “80% <x ≦ 100%”.
The range of demand accuracy x is based on the number of orders by level presented to the user (estimated number of orders described later), the number of orders actually adopted by the user, and the parts inventory (whether or not there is a shortage) based on the order. , It may be updated statistically automatically.

The configuration of the base position file 122 will be described with reference to FIG.
The base location file 122 shows location information for each maintenance base.
The base position file 122 has base position data for each maintenance base. Specifically, the base position file 122 is a table, and the base position data is a record.
The base position data has columns for "base name", "base address", and "base coordinates". The columns are associated with each other.
The "base address" is the address of the maintenance base.
The "base coordinates" are the coordinate values of the points where the maintenance bases are located.

The configuration of the base capacity file 123 will be described with reference to FIG.
The base capacity file 123 indicates the capacity of each maintenance base.
The base capacity file 123 has base capacity data for each set of maintenance bases and types of maintenance parts. Specifically, the base capacity file 123 is a table, and the base capacity data is a record.
The base capacity data has columns for "base name", "part type", and "base capacity". The columns are associated with each other.
The "base capacity" is the capacity of the maintenance base and corresponds to the amount of maintenance parts that can be stocked at the maintenance base.

The configuration of the component capacity file 124 will be described with reference to FIG.
The component capacity file 124 shows the capacity for each type of maintenance component.
The component capacity file 124 has component capacity data for each type of maintenance component. Specifically, the component capacity file 124 is a table, and the component capacity data is a record.
The component capacity data has columns for "component type" and "component capacity", respectively. The columns are associated with each other.
"Part capacity" is the capacity required to stock maintenance parts and corresponds to the size of maintenance parts.

The configuration of the inventory management file 125 will be described with reference to FIG.
The inventory management file 125 shows the number of inventories for each set of maintenance bases and types of maintenance parts.
The inventory management file 125 has inventory management data for each set of maintenance bases and types of maintenance parts. Specifically, the inventory management file 125 is a table, and the inventory management data is a record.
The inventory management data has columns for "base name", "part type", and "inventory quantity". The columns are associated with each other.
The "base name" identifies the maintenance base.
"Inventory quantity" is the number of maintenance parts remaining.

The configuration of the demand accuracy database 129 will be described with reference to FIG.
The demand accuracy database 129 has demand accuracy data for each type of maintenance contract and maintenance parts.
The demand accuracy data shows the relationship between the number of days used and the demand accuracy. Demand accuracy data is generated in the form of graphs, tables, functions or formulas.

*** Explanation of operation ***
The operation of the parts management system 100 corresponds to the parts management method. Further, the procedure of the parts management method corresponds to the procedure of the parts management program.

An outline of the parts management method will be described with reference to FIG.
In step S100, the demand accuracy management unit 210 calculates the demand accuracy for each maintenance part.

FIG. 20 shows a specific example of the demand accuracy data 131 obtained in step S100.
The demand accuracy data 131 shows the demand accuracy for each maintenance component.
“Elevator A substrate α”, “elevator B substrate α”, and “elevator C substrate α” are specific examples of maintenance parts.
“Elevator A”, “elevator B” and “elevator C” are specific examples of maintenance products.
“Substrate α” is a specific example of a type of maintenance component.
"%" Means percentage.

Returning to FIG. 19, step S200 will be described.
In step S200, the ordering plan support unit 220 presents an ordering plan for each type of maintenance part based on the demand accuracy for each maintenance part.

FIG. 21 shows a specific example of the order planning screen 132 displayed in step S200.
The ordering plan screen 132 presents an ordering plan for each type of maintenance part.
“Board”, “battery” and “roller” are specific examples of types of maintenance parts.
The "first level" and the "second level" represent the demand level.
The "first level" order quantity is the minimum order quantity.
The number of orders in the "second level" is the number of orders with a margin.
The number of stocks is the total number of stocks at all maintenance bases.

Returning to FIG. 19, step S300 will be described.
In step S300, the stock plan support unit 230 presents a stock plan for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts based on the order plan for each type of maintenance parts and various information for each maintenance base.

FIG. 22 shows a specific example of the mode selection screen 133 displayed in step S300.
The mode selection screen 133 shows a plurality of stock planning modes.
Stock planning mode represents how to derive a stock planning

FIG. 23 shows a specific example of the stock planning screen 134 displayed in step S300.
The stock plan screen 134 shows the number of stocks of maintenance parts in the target planning mode for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts.
The target planning mode is the stock planning mode selected on the mode selection screen 133.
The upper limit of stock is the upper limit of the number of stocks that can be stocked.

The procedure of the demand accuracy management process (S100) will be described with reference to FIG. 24.
Steps S110 to S150 are executed for each maintenance component.
Maintenance parts to be processed are referred to as "target parts".
A maintenance product equipped with a target part is referred to as a "target product".

In step S110, the maintenance contract specifying unit 211 specifies the type of maintenance contract for the target product based on the maintenance management file 111.
Specifically, the maintenance contract specifying unit 211 selects maintenance management data of the target product from the maintenance management file 111 (see FIG. 6), and acquires the type of maintenance contract from the selected maintenance management data.

In step S120, the number of days of use calculation unit 212 calculates the number of days of use of the target part based on the delivery record file 112.
The calculated number of days of use is the number of days from the start date of use to the forecast target date.
The forecast target date is a date that is the target of the demand forecast and is specified in advance.

The number of days of use calculation unit 212 calculates the number of days of use of the target part as follows.
First, the usage days calculation unit 212 selects the delivery record data of the target part from the delivery record file 112 (see FIG. 7).
Next, the usage days calculation unit 212 acquires the usage start date (delivery date or exchange date) from the selected delivery record data.
Then, the usage days calculation unit 212 calculates the number of days from the usage start date to the prediction target date. The calculated number of days is the number of days of use of the target part.

In step S130, the demand accuracy data selection unit 213 selects the demand accuracy data for the set of the maintenance contract type for the target product and the target component type from the demand accuracy database 129 (see FIG. 18).

In step S140, the demand accuracy calculation unit 214 calculates the demand accuracy of the target component on the forecast target date based on the selected demand accuracy data and the number of days of use of the target component.
Specifically, the demand accuracy calculation unit 214 calculates the demand accuracy corresponding to the number of days of use of the target component by using the selected demand accuracy data. The calculated demand accuracy is the demand accuracy of the target parts on the forecast target date.
For example, the demand accuracy data is a demand accuracy graph showing the relationship between the number of days used and the demand accuracy (see FIG. 18). In this case, the demand accuracy calculation unit 214 calculates the demand accuracy corresponding to the number of days of use of the target component by using the demand accuracy graph. The calculated demand accuracy is the demand accuracy of the target parts on the forecast target date.

In step S150, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component on the forecast target date.

A first specific example of the demand accuracy correction process (S150) will be described with reference to FIG. 25.
In step S151A, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 specifies the manufacturing lead time of the target component based on the manufacturing lead time file 114.
Specifically, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 selects the manufacturing lead time data of the type of the target component from the manufacturing lead time file 114 (see FIG. 9), and acquires the manufacturing lead time from the selected manufacturing lead time data. The acquired manufacturing lead time is the manufacturing lead time of the target part.

In step S152A, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 specifies the replacement plan date of the target part based on the replacement plan file 116.
Specifically, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 selects the replacement plan data of the target part from the replacement plan file 116 (see FIG. 11), and acquires the replacement plan date from the selected replacement plan data. The acquired replacement plan date is the replacement plan date of the target part.

In step S153A, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 calculates the number of days from the forecast target date to the replacement plan date of the target part. The calculated number of days is referred to as "grace days".
Then, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 compares the number of grace days with the manufacturing lead time of the target component.

In step S154A, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component based on the comparison result.
For example, when the manufacturing lead time is equal to or longer than the grace period, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target part to "100%". That is, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component to "100%" when the following equation holds.
(Planned replacement date)-(Forecast date) <= (Manufacturing lead time)

A second specific example of the demand accuracy correction process (S150) will be described with reference to FIG. 26.
In step S151B, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 specifies the maximum number of days of delay of the target component based on the delay record file 115.
Specifically, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 selects the delay record data of the type of the target component from the delay record file 115 (see FIG. 10), and acquires the delay days from the selected delay record data. The number of days delayed to be acquired is the maximum number of days delayed for the target part.

In step S152B, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 specifies the replacement plan date of the target part based on the replacement plan file 116.
Step S152B is the same as step S152A.

In step S153B, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 calculates the number of days from the forecast target date to the replacement plan date of the target part. The calculated number of days is referred to as "grace days".
Then, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 compares the number of grace days with the maximum number of days of delay of the target component.

In step S154B, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component based on the comparison result.
For example, when the maximum number of delay days is equal to or greater than the number of grace days, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component to "100%". That is, the demand accuracy correction unit 215 corrects the demand accuracy of the target component to "100%" when the following equation holds.
(Maximum delay days)> = (Planned replacement date)-(Forecast date)

The procedure of the order planning support process (S200) will be described with reference to FIG. 27.
In step S210, the order quantity prediction unit 221 predicts the order quantity for each type of maintenance component based on the demand accuracy for each maintenance component. The expected number of orders is referred to as the "estimated number of orders".
The estimated order quantity corresponds to the number of maintenance parts having demand accuracy included in the accuracy range.

Specifically, the order quantity prediction unit 221 uses a plurality of accuracy ranges for a plurality of demand levels, and has a demand accuracy included in the accuracy range for each set of maintenance component types and demand levels. Aggregate the numbers. The number obtained by aggregation is the estimated number of orders.

The order quantity prediction unit 221 calculates the forecast order quantity for each set of the type of maintenance parts and the demand level as follows. The target type of maintenance parts is referred to as "target type", and the target demand level is referred to as "target level".
First, the order quantity prediction unit 221 acquires the accuracy range of the target level from the level definition file 121 (see FIG. 13).
Next, the order quantity prediction unit 221 selects the demand accuracy of the target type of maintenance parts from the demand accuracy of all the maintenance parts. For example, when the target component is "part β", the demand accuracy of the component β of the base A, the demand accuracy of the component β of the base B, and the like are selected.
Next, the order quantity prediction unit 221 compares the demand accuracy of maintenance parts with the accuracy range of the target level for each maintenance part of the target type.
Then, the order quantity prediction unit 221 totals the number of maintenance parts having the demand accuracy included in the accuracy range of the target level. The number obtained by aggregation is the predicted number of orders for the set of target type and target level.
A set of maintenance parts having a demand accuracy included in the accuracy range of the target level is referred to as a "parts set" of the target level.

In step S220, the ordering plan presenting unit 222 generates an ordering plan screen 132 showing the estimated number of orders for each set of the type of maintenance parts and the demand level, and displays the ordering plan screen 132 on the display.
For example, the ordering plan presentation unit 222 displays the ordering plan screen 132 as shown in FIG. The inventory quantity shown on the order planning screen 132 is obtained by totaling the inventory quantity for each type of maintenance parts based on the inventory management file 125 (see FIG. 17).

In step S230, the order quantity receiving unit 223 accepts the order quantity specified for each type of maintenance part on the order planning screen 132. The number of orders received is referred to as the "number of orders".

On the order planning screen 132, the number of orders for each type of maintenance part is specified as follows.
On the order planning screen 132, the user selects a demand level for each type of maintenance part. The demand level is selected by a click operation using a mouse or the like. The expected number of orders for the selected demand level is the specified number of orders. That is, the parts set of the selected demand level becomes the ordered parts set (ordering target).
On the order planning screen 132, the user may freely edit the number of orders. If the number of edited orders is less than the expected number of orders, the reduced number of maintenance parts is excluded from the order target in ascending order of demand accuracy. The number of reductions is the difference between the number of orders after editing and the number of predicted orders. If the number of orders after editing is larger than the expected number of orders, the increasing number of maintenance parts is added to the order target in descending order of demand accuracy. The number of increases is the difference between the number of orders after editing and the number of predicted orders.

Further, the order quantity reception unit 223 registers the selected demand level parts set (order target) in the order management file 113.
That is, the order quantity receiving unit 223 registers the set of the maintenance product including the maintenance parts and the maintenance parts in the order management file 113 for each maintenance part included in the parts set of the selected demand level.

The procedure of the stock plan support process (S300) will be described with reference to FIG. 28.
In step S310, the mode reception unit 231 generates a mode selection screen 133 indicating a plurality of stock planning modes. Multiple stock planning modes are predetermined.
The mode reception unit 231 displays the mode selection screen 133 on the display. For example, the mode reception unit 231 displays the mode selection screen 133 as shown in FIG.
Then, the mode reception unit 231 accepts the stock planning mode selected on the mode selection screen 133. The accepted stock planning mode is referred to as "target planning mode". For example, the target planning mode is selected by a mouse click operation or the like.

In step S320, the stock number calculation unit 232 calculates the stock number of maintenance parts in the target planning mode for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts.

The stock number calculation unit 232 calculates the stock number of maintenance parts in the target planning mode as follows.
A plurality of calculation algorithms are prepared in advance for a plurality of stock planning modes.
The calculation algorithm is an algorithm for calculating the stock number of maintenance parts, and is prepared in the form of a program, a function, a mathematical formula, or the like.
The stock number calculation unit 232 selects a calculation algorithm for the target planning mode from a plurality of calculation algorithms for the plurality of stock planning modes.
The stock number calculation unit 232 acquires various information used in the calculation algorithm for the target planning mode. The various information to be acquired includes the location information of each maintenance base shown in the base location file 122, the capacity of each maintenance base shown in the base capacity file 123, and the capacity or inventory management file of each maintenance part shown in the component capacity file 124. It is the number of stocks of each maintenance base shown in 125.
Then, the stock number calculation unit 232 calculates the calculation algorithm for the target planning mode by inputting the acquired various information and the number of orders for each type of maintenance parts. As a result, the stock number of maintenance parts in the target planning mode is calculated for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts.

In step S330, the stock plan presentation unit 233 generates a stock plan screen 134 showing the number of maintenance parts in stock in the target plan mode for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts, and displays the stock plan screen 134 on the display. do.
For example, the stock plan presentation unit 233 displays the stock plan screen 134 as shown in FIG. 23. The number of stocks at each maintenance base can be freely edited by the user. The maximum number of stocks will be described later.

A method for generating demand accuracy data will be described.
Demand accuracy data can be generated by methods used in the field of survival analysis. Specifically, by reading "survival rate of a certain part at a certain point in time" as "demand accuracy (replacement rate or delivery rate) of a certain part at a certain point in time" in the relevant field, the relationship between the number of days of use and the demand accuracy can be understood. Can be sought. For example, the past usage period (from the start of mounting or use to the delivery (replacement) of maintenance parts) is obtained based on the accumulated manufacturing information and the accumulated delivery information. Then, by using Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of the specified probability distribution (for example, Weibull distribution) for the set of the obtained usage periods, the relationship between the number of days of use and the demand accuracy is calculated. Even if there is not enough data to directly obtain the relationship between the number of days of use and the accuracy of demand, the relationship between the number of days of use and the accuracy of demand can be probabilistically or statistically managed by managing various data for each site. Can be obtained. In addition, it is possible to improve the accuracy of the relationship by updating the relationship between the number of days of use and the demand accuracy when the accumulated data increases. That is, it is possible to make the demand accuracy data reflect the latest information.

An embodiment for predicting demand accuracy will be described.
In addition to the forecast target sunrise storage rate, the demand accuracy may be calculated by using data indicating the degree of deterioration of the part (such as a photograph of the part or the degree of deterioration input by a maintenance person). Data indicating the degree of deterioration of the parts is registered in the maintenance management file 111.
Calculate the demand accuracy of the forecast target day using the regression method for the objective variable (demand accuracy of the forecast target day) and the explanatory variable (prediction target sunrise storage rate, data registered in the maintenance management file 111). May be good.

An example of a method of deriving a stock plan will be described.
The first example is a derivation method of "approaching the position of the product whose component is the ordered part and the position of the base where the ordered part is stocked".
Specifically, the stock plan is derived by allocating the number of ordered parts that can be stocked to the bases that satisfy the following formula in ascending order of distance. "N1" is the number of bases that satisfy the inequality sign in the following formula. The "corresponding product" is a product whose constituent parts are ordered parts.
(Capacity of ordered parts) x (Number of ordered parts ordered) ≤ {(Bases with a short distance to the corresponding product) x (Stock empty capacity of bases) x N1}
(Stock free capacity of the base) is calculated by using the component capacity file 124, the inventory management file 125, and the base capacity file 123.
(Stock free capacity of the base) = (Capacity of the base)-{(Capacity of ordered parts) × (Inventory quantity of ordered parts at the base)}

The second example is a derivation method of "stocking the same type of parts in the same maintenance base".
Specifically, the stock plan is derived by calculating the following formula.
(Capacity of ordered parts) x (Number of ordered parts ordered) ≤ (Stock free capacity of base)

The upper limit number of stocks shown on the stock planning screen 134 will be described.
The maximum number of stocks is calculated by calculating the following formula. "N2" is the number of parts satisfying the inequality sign in the following equation.
(Part capacity) x N2 ≤ (Stock free capacity of base)

*** Effect of Embodiment 1 ***
In the first embodiment, the demand is not predicted only based on the life of the parts or the past demand, but the demand is predicted by utilizing the type of maintenance contract and the state of the replacement plan. As a result, the accuracy of demand forecasting can be improved.
In particular, in the maintenance of elevators, maintenance personnel may make a replacement plan before the manufacturing lead time of parts, so highly accurate information (fixed number information) can be obtained in advance.

By using the information (maintenance management file 111) that can reliably identify the maintenance product for each site, it is possible to calculate the demand for each site. As a result, the accuracy of demand forecasting is improved.
Based on the demand accuracy and the shelf balance, the number of orders can be presented for each level, such as the minimum number of orders (for deleting the shelf balance) and the number of orders for preventing shortages. In other words, it can support decision making in order planning.
It is possible to present the optimum stock plan for each base. In other words, it can support decision making in stock planning. As a result, effects such as reduction of delivery cost and reduction of delivery delay can be obtained.

*** Supplement to Embodiment 1 ***
The hardware configuration of the parts management device 200 will be described with reference to FIG. 29.
The parts management device 200 includes a processing circuit 209.
The processing circuit 209 is hardware that realizes the demand accuracy management unit 210, the order planning support unit 220, and the stock planning support unit 230.
The processing circuit 209 may be dedicated hardware or a processor 201 that executes a program stored in the memory 202.

When the processing circuit 209 is dedicated hardware, the processing circuit 209 is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC, an FPGA, or a combination thereof.
ASIC is an abbreviation for Application Special Integrated Circuit.
FPGA is an abbreviation for Field Programmable Gate Array.

The component management device 200 may include a plurality of processing circuits that replace the processing circuit 209. The plurality of processing circuits share the role of the processing circuit 209.

In the component management device 200, some functions may be realized by dedicated hardware, and the remaining functions may be realized by software or firmware.

In this way, the processing circuit 209 can be realized by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof.

The embodiments are examples of preferred embodiments and are not intended to limit the technical scope of the invention. The embodiment may be partially implemented or may be implemented in combination with other embodiments. The procedure described using the flowchart or the like may be appropriately changed.
The "part" which is an element of the parts management device 200 may be read as "processing" or "process".

100 parts management system, 111 maintenance management file, 112 delivery record file, 113 order management file, 114 manufacturing lead time file, 115 delay record file, 116 replacement plan file, 117 shortage management file, 121 level definition file, 122 base location File, 123 base capacity file, 124 parts capacity file, 125 inventory management file, 129 demand accuracy database, 131 demand accuracy data, 132 order planning screen, 133 mode selection screen, 134 stock planning screen, 200 parts management device, 201 processor, 202 memory, 203 auxiliary storage device, 204 communication device, 205 input / output interface, 209 processing circuit, 210 demand accuracy management unit, 211 maintenance contract identification unit, 212 days of use calculation unit, 213 demand accuracy data selection unit, 214 demand accuracy calculation Department, 215 Demand Accuracy Correction Department, 220 Ordering Plan Support Department, 221 Order Number Prediction Department, 222 Ordering Plan Presentation Department, 223 Order Number Reception Department, 230 Stock Planning Support Department, 231 Mode Reception Department, 232 Stock Number Calculation Department, 233 Stock plan presentation unit, 290 storage unit.

Claims (10)

It is a parts management system that predicts the probability that demand for maintenance parts provided in maintenance products will occur as demand accuracy.
A maintenance contract identification unit that specifies the type of maintenance contract for a target product, which is one maintenance product, based on a maintenance management file that indicates the type of maintenance contract for each of one or more maintenance products.
Up to the forecast target date for the target part, which is one maintenance part included in the target product, based on the delivery record file showing the start date of use of each of the one or more maintenance parts included in the one or more maintenance products. The number of days used calculation unit that calculates the number of days used
From the demand accuracy database that has demand accuracy data showing the relationship between the number of days of use and demand accuracy for each set of maintenance contract type and maintenance part type, the type of maintenance contract for the target product and the type of the target part can be obtained. Demand accuracy data selection unit that selects demand accuracy data for a set,
A demand accuracy calculation unit that calculates the demand accuracy of the target part on the forecast target date based on the selected demand accuracy data and the number of days of use of the target part.
Parts management system equipped with. The manufacturing lead time of the target part is specified based on the manufacturing lead time file showing the manufacturing lead time for each type of maintenance part, and the replacement plan of the target part is based on the replacement plan file showing the replacement planned date for each maintenance part. A demand accuracy correction unit that specifies a day, compares the number of days from the forecast target date to the planned replacement date of the target part with the manufacturing lead time of the target part, and corrects the demand accuracy of the target part based on the comparison result. The parts management system according to claim 1. The maximum delay days of the target part are specified based on the delay record file showing the number of days delayed in the past delivery for each type of maintenance part, and the target part is based on the replacement plan file showing the replacement plan date for each maintenance part. The demand for specifying the replacement plan date, comparing the number of days from the forecast target date to the replacement plan date for the target part with the maximum delay days for the target part, and correcting the demand accuracy of the target part based on the comparison result. The parts management system according to claim 1, further comprising an accuracy correction unit. The demand accuracy calculation unit calculates the demand accuracy of each of the one or more maintenance parts.
Any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the parts management system includes an order quantity prediction unit that predicts the number of orders for each type of maintenance parts based on the demand accuracy of each of the one or more maintenance parts. The parts management system described in the section. The order quantity forecasting unit uses a plurality of accuracy ranges for a plurality of demand levels to calculate the number of maintenance parts having the demand accuracy included in the accuracy range for each set of maintenance parts type and demand level. Item 4. The parts management system according to item 4. An ordering plan presentation unit that displays an ordering plan screen showing the number of orders for each set of maintenance parts type and demand level,
The parts management system according to claim 5, further comprising an order quantity receiving unit that receives an order quantity specified for each type of maintenance parts on the order planning screen. Based on the capacity of each of the one or more maintenance bases and the number of orders received for each type of maintenance parts, the number of stocks of maintenance parts is calculated for each set of maintenance bases and types of maintenance parts. The parts management system according to claim 6, further comprising a stock number calculation unit. The parts management system further includes a mode reception unit and a stock plan presentation unit.
The mode reception unit displays a mode selection screen showing a plurality of stock planning modes, and accepts the stock planning mode selected on the mode selection screen as the target planning mode.
By calculating the calculation algorithm for the target planning mode among the plurality of calculation algorithms for the plurality of stock planning modes, the stock number calculation unit calculates the target planning mode for each set of the maintenance base and the type of maintenance parts. Calculate the number of maintenance parts in stock in
The parts management system according to claim 7, wherein the stock plan presenting unit displays a stock plan screen showing the number of stocks of maintenance parts in the target plan mode for each set of a maintenance base and a type of maintenance parts. It is a parts management method that predicts the probability that demand for maintenance parts provided in maintenance products will occur as demand accuracy.
The maintenance contract identification unit identifies the type of maintenance contract for the target product, which is one maintenance product, based on the maintenance management file indicating the type of maintenance contract for each of the one or more maintenance products.
Based on the delivery record file showing the start date of use of each of the one or more maintenance parts included in the one or more maintenance products, the usage days calculation unit selects the target part which is one maintenance part included in the target product. On the other hand, calculate the number of days used until the forecast target date,
From the demand accuracy database in which the demand accuracy data selection unit has demand accuracy data indicating the relationship between the number of days of use and the demand accuracy for each set of the maintenance contract type and the maintenance part type, the type of maintenance contract for the target product is obtained. Select the demand accuracy data for the set with the target part type, and select
A parts management method in which the demand accuracy calculation unit calculates the demand accuracy of the target part on the forecast target date based on the selected demand accuracy data and the number of days of use of the target part. It is a parts management program of a parts management system that predicts the probability that demand for maintenance parts provided in maintenance products will occur as demand accuracy.
Maintenance contract identification processing that specifies the type of maintenance contract for the target product, which is one maintenance product, based on the maintenance management file that indicates the type of maintenance contract for each of one or more maintenance products.
Up to the forecast target date for the target part, which is one maintenance part included in the target product, based on the delivery record file showing the start date of use of each of the one or more maintenance parts included in the one or more maintenance products. The number of days used calculation process to calculate the number of days used
From the demand accuracy database that has demand accuracy data showing the relationship between the number of days of use and demand accuracy for each set of maintenance contract type and maintenance part type, the type of maintenance contract for the target product and the type of the target part can be obtained. Demand accuracy data selection process that selects demand accuracy data for a set, and
Demand accuracy calculation processing for calculating the demand accuracy of the target part on the forecast target date based on the selected demand accuracy data and the number of days of use of the target part, and
A parts management program that allows a computer to execute.

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