JP6733374B2 - Estimating system, estimating method, and estimating program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an estimation system, an estimation method, and an estimation program for estimating the power generation amount.

Renewable energy such as solar power generation is easily affected by the climate and the installation site, and the output amount (for example, power generation amount) greatly changes with time.

In recent years, small-scale power generation systems such as home solar panels have been increasing. In view of such a situation, there is a demand to grasp the amount of power generation in detail including not only large-scale power generation systems managed by electric power companies but also these small-scale power generation systems. However, it is not easy to manage all the power generation efficiency and installation conditions of power generation systems including small-scale power generation systems.

For example, Patent Documents 1 and 2 are related to the technique for calculating the amount of power generation. For example, in Patent Document 1, the correspondence relationship between the maximum power generation amount by time zone and the solar radiation intensity by time zone is extracted, and the solar power generation amount in the time zone is predicted from the solar radiation intensity forecast value based on the correspondence relation. A solar power generation amount prediction device is described.

Further, for example, Patent Document 2 describes a prediction system that calculates a power generation coefficient that converts solar radiation intensity into power generation amount and calculates a predicted value of power generation amount from a predicted value of solar radiation intensity using the calculated power generation coefficient. Has been done.

JP, 2007-173657, A JP, 2005-5641, A

However, the photovoltaic power generation prediction apparatus described in Patent Document 1 confirms that when associating the maximum power generation amount with the solar radiation intensity, the actual value of solar power generation in the same time unit as the actual value of the solar radiation intensity is acquired. I assume. In addition, the prediction system described in Patent Document 2 also needs the actual power generation amount actual value in the same time unit as the actual solar radiation amount actual value in order to optimize the power generation coefficient for converting the predicted value of the solar radiation intensity into the power generation amount. I am trying.

As described above, it is not always possible to obtain the desired actual value of the amount of power generation for each hour from all power generation systems. For example, when trying to obtain the power generation amount in a relatively short time unit from the power generation system without leakage, the power generation system is provided with a sensor for measuring the power generation amount in the time unit and a notification unit for notifying the server of the measurement result. Is required. However, it is very difficult to provide such a sensor and a notification means for all power generation systems including a small-scale power generation system.

According to the method described in Patent Document 2, even if the power generation amount in a relatively short time unit cannot be obtained, the power generation amount is calculated from the predicted value of the solar radiation intensity by giving the power generation efficiency of the power generation system and the installation conditions. Can be converted to. However, like the actual value of the power generation amount described above, it is very difficult to manage information such as all power generation characteristics and installation conditions of the power generation system including the small-scale power generation system.

Therefore, it is an object of the present invention to provide an estimation system, an estimation method, and an estimation program capable of estimating a more detailed power generation amount even when the information of the power generation system that can be acquired is limited.

The estimation system according to the present invention includes an actual power generation amount, which is the actual value of the power generation amount in a second time unit that is longer than the first time unit, in the target power generation system or target region, and the installation position or target region of the target power generation system. Of the first amount of solar radiation in the second time unit based on the amount of solar radiation in the first time unit during the period of calculating the actual amount of power generation in It is characterized in that it is provided with a conversion parameter estimating means for estimating a conversion parameter for converting into a quantity.

Further, the estimation system according to the present invention estimates the position information, the actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit longer than the first time unit, and the power generation amount in the first time unit. Input means for inputting at least period information regarding a period, an insolation sequence which is a series of insolation amounts in a first time unit during a period in which the actual power generation amount at the position indicated by the position information is calculated, and position information The second time is based on the solar radiation amount estimating means for estimating the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period at the position, the actual power generation amount, and the solar radiation amount sequence during the period when the actual power generation amount is calculated. Conversion parameter estimating means for estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the first hourly solar radiation amount in the unit into power generation, the conversion parameter, and the first hourly solar radiation amount during the estimation period. Based on the above, a power generation amount estimating means for estimating the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period and an output means for outputting the estimation result are provided.

In addition, the estimation method according to the present invention uses the actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target area, and the installation position of the target power generation system or When the solar radiation amount sequence, which is the series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period when the actual power generation amount is calculated, is input in the target area, the conversion information stored in advance is the second time. Information on candidates for a conversion coefficient sequence, which is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation for converting each of the first amount of solar radiation in the unit into power generation, or the amount of power generated in the first time unit after conversion The integrated power generation amount, which is the integrated value of, is the closest to the actual power generation amount. , And estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the solar radiation amounts of the first time unit in the second time unit into the power generation amount.

Further, the estimation program according to the present invention causes the computer to record the actual power generation amount, which is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit, which is longer than the first time unit, in the target power generation system or the target area, and the target power generation system in the target power generation system. When the installation position or the solar radiation amount sequence, which is the series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period when the actual power generation amount is calculated, is input, the conversion information stored in advance Information of candidates for a conversion coefficient sequence, which is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation for converting each of the solar radiation amounts in the first time unit in the two time units into the power generation amount, or the first time unit after conversion The conversion coefficient sequence candidate or constraint condition indicated by the conversion information, which is the constraint condition information given to the predetermined mathematical planning model that solves the conversion coefficient sequence in which the integrated power generation amount that is the integrated value of the Is used to execute a process of estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the solar radiation amounts in the first time unit in the second time unit into the power generation amount.

According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate a more detailed power generation amount even when the information of the power generation system that can be acquired is limited.

It is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 1st Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing which shows the relationship of a 1st time unit and a 2nd time unit. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation|movement of the estimation system of 1st Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the determination method of a conversion parameter. It is explanatory drawing which shows the other example of the determination method of a conversion parameter. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate. It is explanatory drawing which shows the other example of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table. It is explanatory drawing which shows the other example of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table. It is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 2nd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation|movement of the estimation system of 2nd Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 3rd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation|movement of the estimation system of 3rd Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 4th Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation|movement of the estimation system of 4th Embodiment. It is a schematic block diagram which shows the structural example of the computer concerning each embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the outline|summary of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the other structure of the estimation system by this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the other structure of the estimation system by this invention.

Embodiment 1.
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram illustrating an example of the estimation system according to the first embodiment. The estimation system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a solar radiation amount sequence acquisition unit 11, an actual power generation amount acquisition unit 12, a conversion information storage unit 13, and a conversion parameter estimation unit 14.

The solar radiation amount acquisition unit 11 acquires a solar radiation amount sequence that is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during a predetermined evaluation period at the installation position of the target power generation system. The type of the amount of solar radiation to be acquired does not matter. The solar radiation amount may be, for example, an average total solar radiation amount, or may be divided into direct solar radiation amount and scattered solar radiation amount.

The actual power generation amount acquisition means 12 acquires the actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount of the target power generation system in the above evaluation period.

Here, the evaluation period may be a past period in which the actual power generation amount can be acquired. Further, the first time unit is a time unit shorter than the second time unit, which is the length of the evaluation period. As the first time unit, for example, a time interval of the power generation amount to be estimated may be set. The second time unit includes two or more first time units. Hereinafter, the actual power generation amount may be expressed as the second time unit power generation amount.

FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the first time unit and the second time unit. As shown in FIGS. 2A and 2B, the evaluation period may be a predetermined period on the time series having a time length of the second time unit. In addition, FIG. 2A is an example in which the second time unit includes a constant first time unit. Note that, as shown in FIG. 2B, the first time unit does not have to be constant. That is, the second time unit may include different lengths of the first time unit. This corresponds to, for example, a case where the amount of insolation during the day is acquired in units of 30 minutes and the amount of insolation at night is acquired in units of time larger than that. The size of the second time unit does not have to be fixed. This corresponds to, for example, 30 days in a certain month and 31 days in a certain month when the second time unit is one month. Note that, in FIG. 2, t represents a variable for identifying the first time unit included in the second time unit.

The amount of solar radiation at the installation position of the target power generation system may be, for example, the amount of solar radiation actually received by the target power generation system (actual value), or the average amount of radiation in a predetermined area where the target power generation system is installed. The amount of solar radiation may be different.

As a method for acquiring the amount of solar radiation, a method using a pyranometer installed at or near the installation position of the target power generation system, or GPV (Grid Point Value) data including forecast values related to weather in a predetermined area including the installation position From the satellite image obtained by photographing the sky above a predetermined area including the installation position.

As a method of acquiring the actual power generation amount, for example, a method of making a power sale contract and acquiring a value measured by the target power generation system may be used. The above example is merely an example, and the method of acquiring the amount of solar radiation and the amount of actual power generation is not limited to this.

The conversion information storage unit 13 stores in advance conversion information for determining a conversion parameter for converting each solar radiation amount included in the solar radiation amount sequence into the power generation amount. Here, the conversion parameter may be, for example, a conversion coefficient string that is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation that converts each solar radiation amount included in the solar radiation amount sequence into a power generation amount. It may be a constraint condition given to a predetermined mathematical programming model for determining a column. Further, the conversion parameter is a parameter related to the target power generation system that is meant by a parameter related to the target power generation system used to generate the conversion coefficient sequence or a constraint condition, for example, a power generation characteristic (efficiency) of the target power generation system, a power generation capacity, or an installation condition (for example, It may be information indicating a tilt angle, an azimuth angle, the presence or absence of a shield with respect to the sun direction, or the like, or a change over time.

The conversion information may be, for example, information on a conversion coefficient string candidate or information on a constraint condition. The information on the candidate of the transform coefficient sequence may be the candidate itself, or may include the information indicating the application method (priority order, combination rule, etc.) together with the candidate. Further, as the information on the constraint condition, even information about a candidate parameter (power generation efficiency or installation condition) of the target power generation system to be a constraint condition, a range of values, accuracy of values, or temporal change of values may be used. Alternatively, information indicating the application method may be included together with the information.

The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 determines the conversion parameter based on the solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount during the evaluation period, and the conversion information stored in the conversion information storage unit 13. The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 calculates the provisional integrated power generation amount by applying the candidates of the conversion coefficient sequence indicated by the conversion information to the conversion formula for converting each solar radiation amount included in the solar radiation amount sequence into the power generation amount, for example. The conversion parameter may be estimated by determining the conversion coefficient string based on the result. In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation means 14 may estimate, as the conversion parameter, the determined conversion coefficient sequence or a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate the conversion coefficient sequence.

Further, the conversion parameter estimation means 14 uses, for example, the constraint condition indicated by the conversion information to determine the conversion coefficient sequence obtained by solving a predetermined mathematical programming model or the constraint condition when the conversion coefficient sequence is determined. The parameters relating to the power generation system shown may be estimated as the conversion parameters. More specifically, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 solves a conversion coefficient sequence in which the integrated power generation amount, which is the integrated value of the power generation amount in the first time unit after conversion, is closest to the actual power generation amount. The transform coefficient sequence may be determined by solving In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation means 14 may estimate, as the conversion parameter, the determined conversion coefficient sequence or a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate the conversion coefficient sequence.

Next, the operation of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the estimation system of this embodiment. In the example shown in FIG. 3, first, the solar radiation amount sequence acquisition unit 11 and the actual power generation amount acquisition unit 12 acquire the solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount during the evaluation period (step S101).

Next, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 determines the conversion parameter based on the solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount during the evaluation period acquired in step S101, and the conversion information stored in the conversion information storage unit 13. Yes (step S102).

The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 may output the determined conversion parameter to an external device or may store it in the conversion information storage unit 13.

Next, a method of determining conversion information and conversion parameters will be described in more detail. Also in the following, the times t=1,..., N are used as variables for identifying the first time unit included in the second time unit. Note that n represents the first time unit number (maximum value) included in the second time unit. The maximum value is set in consideration of the case where the time length of the second time unit changes.

[First example]
In the first example, as the conversion information, a conversion coefficient string candidate table in which a plurality of conversion coefficient string candidates that are candidates for a conversion coefficient string including a conversion coefficient to be applied to each of the solar radiation quantities included in the solar radiation quantity string are registered is given. Here is an example.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a conversion parameter determination method in this example. The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 of the present example selects one conversion coefficient sequence candidate from the conversion coefficient sequence candidate table, and uses the conversion formula as the insolation amount included in the acquired insolation amount sequence and the selected conversion coefficient sequence candidate. The conversion coefficient corresponding to the time t of the amount of solar radiation included is sequentially applied to calculate the provisional integrated power generation amount. Here, the provisional integrated amount of power generation is the integrated value of the amount of power generation in the first time unit calculated using the conversion formula. The conversion parameter estimation means 14 estimates a conversion parameter by determining, from the conversion coefficient string candidate table, the conversion coefficient string in which the tentative integrated power generation amount that is closest to the acquired actual power generation amount during the evaluation period is obtained. To do.

In this example, it is assumed that the conversion coefficient string candidate table including the same number of conversion coefficients as the maximum number of solar radiation quantities included in the solar radiation quantity string is registered in the conversion coefficient string candidate table. In the example shown in FIG. 4, the acquired solar radiation amount _{column, I = {i 1, ···} , i n} expressed in, any transform coefficient string candidates in the translation coefficient string candidate table, C j ₌ { c _j1, ···, it is represented by _{c jn}.} Here, j is a variable for identifying a transform coefficient sequence candidate in the transform coefficient sequence candidate table.

The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 selects, for example, one conversion coefficient string candidate from the conversion coefficient string candidate table, and uses the selected conversion coefficient string candidate C _j and the solar radiation amount string I, the provisional integrated power generation amount PM _j. Is calculated using the following equation (1). In Expression (1), c _jt represents the transform coefficient corresponding to the time t included in the transform coefficient sequence candidate C _j . Also, i _t represents the amount of solar radiation that corresponds to the local time t included in the solar radiation amount column I.

PM _j =Σ _t (c _jt ×i _t ) (1)

The conversion parameter estimation unit 14 obtains the tentative integrated power generation amount for all the conversion coefficient string candidates C _j , and obtains the tentative integrated power generation amount and the acquired actual power generation amount (the actual power generation amount in the second time unit). The conversion coefficient sequence candidate having the smallest difference with the value) may be determined as the conversion coefficient sequence in the target power generation system.

The conversion coefficient sequence candidate table includes, for example, the solar power generation efficiency of the target power generation system, the power generation capacity, the solar radiation attenuation rate depending on the installation angle of the target power generation system, the solar radiation attenuation rate due to the surrounding environment of the target power generation system, and the like. It is preferable to include conversion coefficient sequence candidates in which the values of the parameters related to the power generation system that affect the conversion from the power generation amount into the amount of power generation and the temporal changes in the values are expressed in various patterns.

By preparing such conversion coefficient sequence candidates in advance, even if the power generation characteristics and installation conditions of the target power generation system are unknown, the conversion parameters reflecting the influences of them can be used as the solar radiation amount sequence during the evaluation period. It can be estimated from the actual power generation amount. If the conversion parameter can be estimated, the power generation amount in the first time unit in the period can be estimated from the solar radiation amount in the first time unit in the arbitrary period of the target power generation system.

For example, it is assumed that the conversion coefficient sequence C ₁ ={c ₁₁ ,..., C _1n } is estimated as the conversion parameter. In that case, the power generation amount p in the first time unit set on an arbitrary period corresponds to the solar radiation amount i in the first time unit of the period and the period corresponding to the period included in the conversion coefficient string. It can be calculated using the conversion coefficient c _1t corresponding to the time t for identifying the first time unit in the two time units (see the equation (2)).

p=c _1t ×i (2)

The time t is the first time unit in the second time unit corresponding to the desired period. For example, assume that the second time unit is one month, the first time unit is one hour, and the start date of the second time unit is 0:00 on the first day of each month. In such a case, for example, if it is one hour from 0:00 to 1:00 on the first day of the month having the desired period, t=1, and from 1:00 to 2:00 on the first day of the month having the desired period. If it is 1 hour before, t=2 may be set.

[Second example]
The second example is an example in which two types of conversion coefficient sequence candidate tables are provided as conversion information. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the conversion parameter determination method in this example. This example is an example in which the amount of solar radiation is acquired separately as the amount of direct solar radiation and the amount of scattered solar radiation. In such a case, a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table in which conversion coefficient sequence candidates to be applied to the direct solar radiation amount and the scattered solar radiation amount are separately registered may be prepared in advance. In the example shown in FIG. 5, the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate table in which the first conversion coefficient sequence candidates to be applied to the direct solar radiation amount sequence are registered, and the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate to be applied to the scattered solar radiation amount sequence are A registered second conversion coefficient sequence candidate table is prepared. Although not shown, a third transform coefficient sequence candidate table in which transform coefficient sequence candidates applicable to any of them are registered may be further prepared.

In the present example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 calculates the provisional integrated power generation amount using at least the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate and the second conversion coefficient sequence candidate, and based on the result, one set is calculated. The conversion coefficient sequence of may be determined. In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 may estimate, as the conversion parameter, a set of the determined conversion coefficient sequence or a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate each conversion coefficient sequence of the set.

For example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 corresponds to the direct solar radiation amount of each time t included in the solar radiation amount sequence and the time t included in the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate selected from the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate table. The conversion corresponding to the product of the conversion coefficient and the scattered solar radiation amount at each time t included in the solar radiation amount sequence corresponding to the time t included in the second conversion coefficient sequence candidate selected from the second conversion coefficient sequence candidate table. It is also possible to take the total sum of those multiplied by the coefficient and use it as the tentative integrated power generation amount.

For example, the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate selected from the first conversion number sequence candidate table is Ca _j ={ca _j1 ,..., Ca _jn } and is selected from the second conversion number sequence candidate table. It is assumed that the second transform coefficient sequence candidate is Cb _k ={cb _k1 ,..., Cb _kn }. Here, j and k are variables that identify transform coefficient sequence candidates in the transform coefficient sequence candidate table. It is also assumed that the acquired solar radiation amount sequence is I={{di ₁ , si ₁ },..., {di _n , sin _n }}. Hereinafter, among the solar radiation amount sequences, the direct solar radiation amount sequence consisting of only the direct solar radiation amount di _j is DI={di ₁ ,..., Di _n }, and the scattered solar radiation amount sequence consisting of the scattered solar radiation amount si _j is SI=. It is represented by {si ₁ ,..., Si _n }. In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation means 14 may calculate the provisional integrated power generation amount PM _jk by using the following equation (3). In Expression (3), ca _jt and cb _kt represent the conversion coefficient corresponding to time t among the conversion coefficients included in the conversion coefficient sequence candidates Ca _j and Cb _k . Further, di _t and si _t represent the direct solar radiation amount and the scattered solar radiation amount corresponding to the time t.

PM _jk =Σ _t ((ca _jt ×di _t )+(cb _kt ×si _t )) (3)

The conversion parameter estimation means 14 obtains the tentative integrated power generation amount for all combinations of the conversion coefficient sequence candidates Ca _j and Cb _k , and the difference between the obtained tentative integrated power generation amount and the acquired actual power generation amount is the smallest. A set of transform coefficient sequence candidates may be determined.

In the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate table, for example, direct power radiation characteristics such as power generation characteristics of the target power generation system, power generation capacity, direct solar radiation attenuation rate due to installation conditions of the target power generation system, direct solar radiation attenuation rate due to surrounding environment, and the like It is preferable to include conversion coefficient sequence candidates in which the values of the parameters related to the power generation system that affect the conversion from the amount of solar radiation to the amount of power generation and the temporal changes in the values are expressed in various patterns.

In the second conversion coefficient sequence candidate table, for example, the power generation characteristics of the target power generation system, the power generation capacity, the scattered solar radiation attenuation rate due to the installation conditions of the target power generation system, the scattered solar radiation attenuation rate due to the surrounding environment, etc. It is preferable to include conversion coefficient sequence candidates in which the values of parameters related to the power generation system that affect the conversion from the amount of scattered solar radiation to the amount of power generation and the temporal changes in the values are expressed in various patterns.

If there is a transform coefficient sequence candidate that can be applied to any of them, a new one obtained by multiplying each of the first transform coefficient sequence candidate and the second change coefficient sequence candidate by the transform coefficient sequence candidate is newly added. The first conversion coefficient sequence candidate and the second variation coefficient sequence candidate may be used. The method of generating a new transform coefficient candidate by multiplying the transform coefficient string candidates is also shown in a fourth example described later.

As a result, even if the power generation characteristics and installation conditions of the target power generation system are not known, the conversion parameters reflecting these influences can be used for the solar radiation sequence (direct solar radiation sequence and scattered solar radiation sequence) and actual power generation during the evaluation period. It can be estimated from the quantity. In addition, by separately estimating the conversion coefficient sequence applied to the direct solar radiation amount and the scattered solar radiation amount, for example, the solar radiation attenuation rate due to the installation conditions such as the installation angle and the influence of the shadow due to the surrounding environment, the direct solar radiation amount and Since it is possible to deal with the case where the value differs from the scattered solar radiation amount, the conversion can be performed with higher accuracy.

For example, it is assumed that the selected set of conversion coefficient sequences is Ca ₁ ={ca ₁₁ ,..., Ca _1n } and Cb ₂ ={cb ₂₁ ,..., Cb _2n }. In that case, the power generation amount p in the first time unit set on an arbitrary period is the direct solar radiation amount di and the scattered solar radiation amount si in the first time unit in the period, and the amount included in each conversion coefficient sequence. It can be calculated using the conversion coefficients ca _1t and cb _2t corresponding to the time t for identifying the first time unit in the second time unit with which the period corresponds (see formula (4)).

p=(ca _1t ×di)+(cb _2t ×si) (4)

[Third example]
A third example is a conversion coefficient string in which candidates of a conversion coefficient string in which at least a ratio of a horizontal surface solar radiation amount and a slope surface solar radiation amount in a combination of a plurality of azimuth angles and a plurality of inclination angles are expressed are registered as conversion information. This is an example in which a candidate table is given. In this example, it is assumed that a horizontal plane solar radiation amount is acquired as the first time unit solar radiation amount.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the transform coefficient sequence candidate table of this example. The conversion coefficient sequence candidate table of this example includes conversion coefficients that represent at least the ratio of the horizontal surface solar radiation amount to the inclined surface solar radiation amount in the power generation system when the power generation system has a certain azimuth angle and a certain inclination angle. The conversion sequence candidate is registered. Note that, as shown in FIG. 6, information on the parameters (in this example, the azimuth angle and the inclination angle) used to generate the conversion coefficient sequence candidate may be provided in association with each conversion coefficient sequence candidate. ..

In the figure, θ represents the azimuth angle of the power generation system, and φ represents the tilt angle of the power generation system. At this time, the conversion coefficient included in each conversion coefficient sequence candidate may be a value of 0 to 1 that represents the ratio of the amount of solar radiation to the amount of solar radiation at the azimuth and inclination. The conversion coefficient may be obtained by multiplying a value representing the ratio of the amount of solar radiation on the horizontal surface to the amount of solar radiation on the inclined surface by a value representing another ratio (for example, power generation efficiency or solar radiation attenuation rate). In such a case, in addition to the information on the azimuth angle and the inclination angle used to generate the conversion coefficient sequence candidate, the information used to calculate the other ratios described above (power generation efficiency and the presence/absence of a shield for each time period). Etc.) may be added.

The ratio of the amount of solar radiation on the surface of water to the amount of solar radiation on the inclined surface is, for example, each time zone (t=1,..., t) assuming that the power generation system is installed at the target azimuth and inclination. Is the attenuation rate of the predicted solar radiation amount per unit area of the power generation system (predicted value of inclined surface) in the case of fine weather in the horizontal plane, or those divided by an arbitrary constant. May be.

The method for determining the conversion parameter in this example may be the same as in the first example and the second example.

As in the second example, when the acquired solar radiation amount is divided into the direct solar radiation amount and the scattered solar radiation amount, the first solar radiation amount applied to the horizontal plane direct solar radiation amount is similar to the second example. It suffices to prepare two types of conversion coefficient sequence candidate tables and a second conversion coefficient sequence candidate table to be applied to the amount of horizontal plane solar radiation.

Accordingly, even if the power generation characteristics and installation conditions of the target power generation system are not known, the conversion parameters reflecting the influences thereof can be estimated from the solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount during the evaluation period. In the case of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate consisting of conversion coefficients expressing only the ratio of the horizontal plane solar radiation amount to the slope solar radiation amount in the power generation system, the conversion coefficient sequence candidate is used for converting the horizontal plane solar radiation amount into the slope solar radiation amount. Can be used for In such a case, as shown in a fourth example to be described later, it may be applied by being multiplied by another transform coefficient sequence candidate. Thereby, the influence of various conditions can be considered.

[Fourth example]
In the fourth example, the transform parameter estimating unit 14 uses a product of at least two transform coefficient sequence candidates selected from one or more transform coefficient sequence candidate tables as a new transform coefficient sequence candidate. Here is an example.

In this example, a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table may be prepared for each type of parameter of the power generation system as the conversion information, or one conversion coefficient sequence candidate table may be converted corresponding to various combinations of two or more parameters. Coefficient sequence candidates may be included.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the conversion coefficient string candidate table and an example of selecting conversion coefficient string candidates in this example. As shown in FIG. 7A, the transform parameter estimation unit 14 may select one transform coefficient sequence candidate from each of the plurality of transform coefficient sequence candidate tables and multiply them to obtain a new transform coefficient sequence candidate. .. When there are three or more transform coefficient sequence candidate tables, one transform coefficient sequence candidate is selected from at least two or more transform coefficient sequence candidate tables, and they are multiplied to form a new transform coefficient sequence candidate. Good.

The combination of transform coefficient sequence candidates to be multiplied is not particularly limited, but a combination of transform coefficient sequence candidates to be multiplied may be selected according to a rule predetermined for each transform coefficient sequence candidate table.

For example, the conversion coefficient sequence candidate selected from the conversion number sequence candidate table A is A _j ={a _j1 ,..., A _jn }, and the conversion coefficient sequence candidate selected from the conversion number sequence candidate table B is B. _{It is} assumed that _k ={b _k1 ,..., B _kn }. Here, j and k are variables that identify transform coefficient sequence candidates in the transform coefficient sequence candidate table, respectively. Further, the obtained solar radiation amount column _{I = {i 1, ···,} i n} and. In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 calculates, for example, the provisional integrated power generation amount PM _ajbk using the following formula (5). In Expression (5), a _jt and b _kt represent the conversion coefficient corresponding to time t among the conversion coefficients included in the conversion coefficient sequence candidates A _j and B _k .

_{PM ajbk = Σ t ((a} jt b kt) × i t) ··· (5)

Further, as shown in FIG. 7B, the transform parameter estimation unit 14 selects a plurality of transform coefficient sequence candidates from one transform coefficient sequence candidate table and multiplies them to obtain a new transform coefficient sequence candidate. It is also possible. For example, consider a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table that corresponds to the presence or absence of a shield in the sun direction. In the conversion coefficient string candidate table, conversion coefficient string candidates composed of conversion coefficients expressing the solar radiation attenuation rate depending on the presence or absence of a shield in the sun direction are registered for each time zone. Each conversion coefficient sequence candidate may be, for example, a conversion coefficient sequence candidate that represents a temporal change in the solar radiation attenuation rate when it is assumed that there is one shield in one direction viewed from the power generation system. .. The number of registrations will be very large if we try to express all the patterns of the presence or absence of a sun-direction shield by time zone, but, for example, with the method of limiting the conditions as described above and preparing conversion coefficient sequence candidates for each direction. If so, the number of registrations can be reduced. The conversion parameter estimation means 14 can newly generate a change coefficient sequence candidate corresponding to two or more shields by combining a plurality of registered conversion coefficient sequence candidates.

For example, the transform coefficient sequence candidates selected from one transform coefficient sequence candidate table are C ₁ ={c ₁₁ ,..., C _1n } and C ₂ ={c ₂₁ ,..., C _2n }. Suppose The obtained solar radiation amount column _{I = {i 1, ···,} i n} When, transformation parameter estimator 14 may, for example, a temporary accumulated power generation amount _{PM c1c2,} using the following equation (6) calculate. In Expression (6), c _1t and c _2t represent the conversion coefficient corresponding to time t among the conversion coefficients included in the conversion coefficient string candidates C ₁ and C ₂ . The number of transform coefficient sequence candidates selected from one transform coefficient sequence candidate table is not limited to two.

_{PM c1c2 = Σ t ((c} 1t c 2t) × i t) ··· (6)

It is also possible to combine the example shown in FIG. 7A and the example shown in FIG. 7B. That is, one transform coefficient sequence candidate may be selected from a certain table, two or more transform coefficient sequence candidates may be selected from another certain table, and they may be multiplied to form a new transform coefficient sequence candidate. In such a case, rules such as the number of selectable transform coefficient sequence candidates and whether or not the same transform coefficient sequence candidate can be selected in duplicate may be set in each transform coefficient sequence candidate table.

[Fifth example]
The fifth example is an example in which the conversion coefficient sequence candidate is represented by a value having the same periodicity as solar declination such as 24 hours or 1 day. In this example, it is premised that the second time unit is one cycle or more in the periodicity of solar declination. In this example, as the conversion information, a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table in which the conversion coefficient sequence candidates represented by the values having such periodicity are registered is prepared in advance. Note that each conversion coefficient sequence candidate may include n conversion coefficients corresponding to the first number of time units in the second time unit, or only one conversion coefficient for one cycle less than n. May be included. In the latter case, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 determines that the conversion coefficient string is a repeating structure of registered conversion coefficients when applying the conversion coefficient string to the amount of solar radiation, and the conversion coefficient string for each cycle. Expand and apply the candidate of.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the transform coefficient sequence candidate table of this example. Note that FIG. 8A is an example of a conversion coefficient sequence candidate table in which conversion coefficient sequence candidates including n conversion factors are registered, and FIG. 8B includes only one period of conversion coefficients. It is an example of a conversion coefficient string candidate table in which conversion coefficient string candidates are registered. Note that the example shown in FIG. 8 shows an example in which each conversion coefficient has a value of 0 to 1, but the conversion coefficient is not limited to a value of 0 to 1.

By using such periodicity, it is possible to limit the combinations of transform coefficient sequence candidates in the table. For example, with respect to the amount of solar radiation for one month, a conversion coefficient string candidate including a value corresponding to the solar radiation attenuation rate corresponding to the azimuth angle and the inclination angle of various power generation systems as the conversion coefficient as in the third example is selected. Think to prepare. Here, the first time unit is 30 minutes and the second time unit is 1 month. Then, n=31 (days)×24 (hours)/0.5=1488. Further, the number of azimuth patterns is pθ and the number of tilt angles is pφ. The total number of patterns including both is pθ×pφ.

For example, when transform coefficient sequence candidates are generated without considering the periodicity, it is necessary to independently handle variables of n×pθ×pφ. Considering that there is a daily periodicity, the number of conversion coefficients included in the conversion coefficient string candidate is one day (n'=24 (hours)/0.5=48), and thus the conversion coefficient string candidate table The number of variables to be considered in (3) is n′×pθ×pφ.

By using the periodicity as the constraint condition in this way, the number of variables to be considered in the transform coefficient sequence candidate table can be reduced, and therefore the search in the table becomes easy. Further, by using the periodicity as the constraint condition, it is possible to prevent overlearning in which the conversion coefficient is excessively fitted to the measurement (estimation error) of each amount of solar radiation in the first time unit. It can be expected to improve the accuracy of the conversion coefficient sequence. Also in this example, multiplication with other transform coefficient sequence candidates is effective. Hereinafter, unless otherwise specified, conversion coefficient sequence candidates and multiplications with other conversion coefficient candidates are also valid in all cases other than this example.

[Sixth Example]
The sixth example is an example in which the conversion coefficient sequence candidate is a series of conversion coefficients having a constant value. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the transform coefficient sequence candidate table of this example. In the conversion coefficient string candidate table of this example, as shown in FIG. 9A, conversion coefficient string candidates, which are all series of conversion coefficients having constant values, are registered. It should be noted that the conversion coefficient within one conversion coefficient sequence candidate has only to be a constant value and does not necessarily have to be in the range of 0 to 1. For example, in the case of the conversion coefficient corresponding to the power generation capacity, it can take a value of 1 or more.

Further, as shown in FIG. 9B, each transform coefficient sequence candidate may include only one transform coefficient that represents one constant value. In this case, the transform parameter estimation unit 14 may regard each transform coefficient sequence candidate as a repeating structure of one registered transform coefficient.

Further, regarding the scale adjustment that performs conversion according to the power generation capacity, without preparing conversion coefficient sequence candidates for scale adjustment in advance, for example, according to the obtained solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount, (actual power generation amount/ It is also possible to newly generate a conversion coefficient sequence candidate having a constant value that falls within the range of (accumulated value of solar radiation sequence) ±α. Here, α is not particularly limited, but may be, for example, (actual power generation amount/integrated value of solar radiation amount sequence).

The number of variables to be considered in the conversion coefficient sequence candidate table can be reduced by preparing a conversion coefficient sequence candidate consisting of conversion coefficients having a constant value, so that it is easy to search the table.

[Seventh example]
The seventh example is an example in which information on constraint conditions given to a predetermined mathematical programming model for determining a conversion coefficient sequence is given as conversion information.

The conversion parameter estimation means 14 of this example calculates a conversion coefficient sequence for converting each solar radiation amount included in the solar radiation amount sequence into a power generation amount by solving a general quadratic programming problem. In the quadratic programming problem, it is possible to limit the candidates (combination of conversion coefficients) that can be taken by constraint conditions to innumerable conceivable conversion coefficient sequence candidates, that is, combinations of conversion coefficients, and select the best one from them. it can.

Hereinafter, an example of the secondary programming problem will be described. For example, assuming that there are no reflectors such as mirrors or light sources other than the sun around the power generation system, the amount of solar radiation is considered to be represented by the sum of direct solar radiation from the sun and uniformly scattered solar radiation from sunny weather. ..

Now, let the amount of direct solar radiation at the installation position of the target power generation system in a certain time zone be D, and let the attenuation rate due to the azimuth angle and tilt angle of the target power generation system in that time zone be ζ _DS . Then, the amount of direct solar radiation on the inclined surface at the installation position, the azimuth angle, and the inclination angle of the target power generation system in the time zone when it is assumed that there is no shield around is represented by ζ _DS D. Further, let ζ _DI be the attenuation rate due to the sun-blocking object at that point in that time zone. Then, the actual direct solar radiation amount on the inclined surface, which is the direct solar radiation amount actually received by the target power generation system, is represented by ζ _DI ζ _DS D.

Further, the horizontal plane scattered solar radiation amount at the point where the target power generation system is installed in a certain time zone is S, and the attenuation rate due to the azimuth angle and the inclination angle of the target power generation system in that time zone is ζ _SS . Then, the amount of solar radiation on the inclined surface at the installation position, azimuth angle, and inclination angle of the target power generation system in that time zone, assuming that there is no shield around, is represented by ζ _SS S. Further, let ζ _SI be the attenuation rate due to the sun-blocking object at that point in that time period. Then, the actual inclined surface scattered solar radiation amount, which is the scattered solar radiation amount actually received by the target power generation system, is represented by ζ _SI ζ _SS S.

Further, when η is the power generation efficiency of the target power generation system, the power generation amount p of the target power generation system per unit time is expressed by the following equation (7).

p=η(ζ _DI ζ _DS D+ζ _SI ζ _SS S) (7)

According to the above assumption, qualitatively, ζ _DS , ζ _DI and ζ _SS have periodicity, and ζ _SI and η are constant. Therefore, when the formula (7) is expanded and arranged, the power generation amount p can be represented by a combination of the periodic conversion coefficient and the constant conversion coefficient as in the following expression (8). However, C _const1 =η, C _cycle1 =ζ _DI ζ _DS , C _const2 =ηζ _SI , and C _cycle2 =ζ _SS .

p=C _const1 C _cycle1 D+C _const2 C _cycle2 D (8)

If equation (8) holds at each time t, the time integration also holds. Therefore, the following expression (9) is established.

Here, if the direct solar radiation amount D ^t and the scattered solar radiation amount S ^t at each time t and the integrated value PM of the power generation amount at each time t are known, the nonlinear problem represented by the following equation (10) is solved. By solving, _Cconst1 , _Ccycle1 , _Cconst2 , and _Ccycle2 can be obtained.

By the way, C ^t _const1 and C ^t _const2 can be read as a periodic integer sequence. Then, by solving a general quadratic programming problem represented by the following equation (11), the conversion coefficient sequence C′ ^t _cycle1 and C ^'t _cycle2 is obtained. Note that C′ ^t _cycle1 =C ^t _const1 C ^t _cycle1 and C′ ^t _cycle2 =C ^t _const2 C ^t _cycle2 .

The conversion information in this example may be information indicating candidates for constraint conditions to be given to the above quadratic programming problem. More specifically, the values of the parameters (power generation efficiency and installation conditions) of the target power generation system, their temporal changes, and conversion coefficient sequence candidates (ζ _DS , ζ _DI , ζ _SS , ζ _SI, and η It may be information indicating a candidate of a combination of values for one cycle). Further, the conversion information may include information indicating a method of applying the constraint condition (for example, a range of values of each parameter, accuracy, periodicity, each combination rule, priority order, etc.). For example, the candidate parameters for the power generation system used to generate the conversion coefficient string candidates in each of the above examples can be given as the constraint condition.

Note that it is necessary to give constraint conditions from the outside, such as when the application method of constraint conditions is fixed or when sufficient learning data (set of solar radiation sequence and actual power generation amount) is prepared for one target system. If there is not, the conversion information can be omitted.

For example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 may solve the quadratic programming problem for each of the plurality of evaluation periods and machine-learn the results to estimate the final conversion parameter. Note that the conversion parameter estimating unit 14 similarly determines the conversion coefficient string for a plurality of evaluation periods when determining the conversion coefficient string from the calculation result of the tentative integrated power generation amount calculated using the conversion coefficient string candidate. The final conversion parameter may be estimated by machine learning the result.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, even when the power generation amount in the first time unit cannot be acquired, if the series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit and the actual power generation amount are acquired, A conversion parameter for converting the amount of solar radiation in the first time unit into the amount of power generation in the first time unit can be obtained.

As a comparative example, in the method described in Patent Document 2, the power generation coefficient is calculated as follows, and then power generation prediction is performed based on the amount of solar radiation and the power generation coefficient. In addition, according to the embodiment of the document, for example, the power generation coefficient is calculated every 10 minutes.
Power generation coefficient (t) = Peak power generation value (t) / Insolation intensity peak value (t)

However, such a method of determining the power generation coefficient needs to be obtained when the amount of power generation and the amount of solar radiation are acquired in the same time unit, and can be used when the amount of power generation and the amount of solar radiation are acquired in different time units. Can not. In general, the amount of solar radiation can be obtained in a short cycle because it is information on the weather, but information on the amount of power generation can be obtained on a monthly basis without special efforts such as installing a sensor for each power generation system. Only the information measured by the electricity meter once can be acquired.

For the reason described above, when an attempt is made to obtain a conversion coefficient based on the amount of solar radiation that can be acquired in a relatively short cycle and the amount of power generation that can be acquired only in a relatively long cycle, it is described in Patent Document 2. Since it cannot be obtained simply by simply dividing by the amount of power generation and the amount of solar radiation, it is necessary to prepare a coefficient string by a table or the like as in the present embodiment.

Embodiment 2.
Next, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an example of the estimation system of the second exemplary embodiment. The estimation system 2 shown in FIG. 10 further includes a power generation amount estimating means 15 in addition to the configuration of the first estimation system shown in FIG.

Hereinafter, the same means as those in the above-described embodiment will be denoted by the same reference numerals, and description thereof will be omitted.

Based on the conversion parameter estimated by the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 and the solar radiation amount sequence acquired by the solar radiation amount sequence acquisition unit 11, the power generation amount estimation unit 15 acquires the solar radiation amount sequence during the period (evaluation period). Estimate the amount of power generation in the first time unit. The power generation amount estimation means 15 uses the conversion coefficient string specified by the conversion parameter to convert each of the first hourly solar radiation amounts during the evaluation period into the power generation amount, thereby generating the first power during the evaluation period. Estimate hourly power generation.

The power generation amount estimation means 15 uses, for example, the above equation (2) or equation (4), for each of the first hourly solar radiation amounts during the evaluation period, the conversion coefficient specified by the conversion parameter. A value obtained by multiplying the conversion coefficient of the time t corresponding to the solar radiation amount in the column may be set as the power generation amount in the first time unit during the evaluation period.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the estimation system of this embodiment. The same parts as those in the operation of the first embodiment are designated by the same reference numerals, and the description thereof will be omitted.

In the example illustrated in FIG. 11, when the conversion parameter is determined, the power generation amount estimating unit 15 acquires the solar radiation amount sequence based on the determined conversion parameter and the acquired solar radiation amount sequence during the evaluation period. The power generation amount in the first time unit is estimated (step S201).

As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to obtain the power generation amount in the first time unit in the past period in which the solar radiation amount sequence and the actual power generation amount are obtained.

Embodiment 3.
Next, a third embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 12: is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 3rd Embodiment. The estimation system 3 shown in FIG. 13 further includes a predicted solar radiation amount acquisition means 16 in addition to the configuration of the second estimation system shown in FIG.

When a future period (hereinafter, referred to as an estimation period) in which a predicted power generation amount for a certain target power generation system is to be predicted is specified for a certain target power generation system, the predicted solar radiation amount acquisition unit 16 estimates the installation position of the target power generation system. Obtain the amount of solar radiation in the first hourly unit during the period. The predicted solar radiation amount acquisition unit 16 uses, for example, the solar radiation in the first time unit during the estimation period from the GPV data including the forecast value regarding the weather in the predetermined area including the installation position of the target power generation system during the specified estimation period. The amount may be estimated. In addition, the predicted solar radiation amount acquisition unit 16 may acquire the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period of the area including the installation position of the target power generation system, which is estimated by the other system from the GPV data and the like. The method of acquiring the amount of solar radiation is not particularly limited.

In addition, the power generation amount estimating means 15 of the present embodiment is based on the conversion parameter estimated by the conversion parameter estimating means 14 and the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period acquired by the predicted solar radiation amount acquiring means 16. , Estimate the amount of power generation in the first time unit during the estimation period.

The power generation amount estimation means 15 uses, for example, the above equation (2) or equation (4), for each of the first amount of solar radiation during the estimation period, the conversion coefficient specified by the conversion parameter. A value obtained by multiplying the conversion coefficient of the time t corresponding to the solar radiation amount in the row may be set as the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period.

The conversion parameter used in the present embodiment may be used as it is if there is a conversion parameter that has already been determined for the target power generation system, or it may be used as it is, or the solar radiation sequence in any past evaluation period at the timing when the estimation period is designated. It may be newly determined from the actual power generation amount. In the case of newly determining, the evaluation period is not particularly limited, but the latest past second time unit period may be used as the evaluation period, or the estimated period and the most weather information (season, temperature, sun The evaluation period may be a second time period in the past, which is close to the position, or the like.

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the estimation system of this embodiment. The same parts as those in the operation of the above embodiment are designated by the same reference numerals, and the description thereof will be omitted.

In the example shown in FIG. 13, it is assumed that the conversion parameter has already been determined for the target power generation system. When the estimation period is designated, the predicted solar radiation amount acquisition unit 16 acquires the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period at the installation position of the target power generation system (step S301).

Next, the power generation amount estimation means 15 generates power in the first time unit during the estimation period based on the conversion parameter of the target power generation system and the acquired amount of solar radiation in the first time unit during the estimation period. The quantity is estimated (step S302).

As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to obtain the power generation amount in the first time unit in any future period in the period in which the predicted value of the solar radiation amount is obtained.

Embodiment 4.
Next, a fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 14: is a block diagram which shows the example of the estimation system of 4th Embodiment. The estimation system 4 shown in FIG. 14 inputs the position information of the target power generation system, the actual power generation amount, and the period information regarding the period and the time unit for which the power generation amount is desired to be input, and then the designated time in the period designated by the period information. It is a system that outputs a power generation sequence that is a series of power generation in units.

In this example, the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated is the evaluation period. In addition to the actual power generation amount, information on a period (evaluation period) in which the actual power generation amount is calculated may be input. Further, the period and time unit designated by the period information is the above-described estimated period and first time unit. The position specified by the position information is the position of the target power generation system. Note that, as already described, the first time unit does not have to be constant. Any period can be designated as the estimation period. The estimation period may be, for example, a past period, a future period, or a period including both the past and the future. On the other hand, it is preferable that the evaluation period includes a length corresponding to at least one cycle of the periodicity in consideration of the periodicity of solar radiation (periodicity similar to solar declination). Further, the position information may be information on latitude and longitude, for example.

The estimation system of this embodiment has the function of the estimation system 2 of the second embodiment and the function of the estimation system 3 of the third embodiment. The estimation system 4 shown in FIG. 14 includes a conversion information storage unit 13, a conversion parameter estimation unit 14, a power generation amount estimation unit 15, a solar radiation amount estimation unit 17, an input unit 18, and an output unit 19.

The solar radiation amount estimating means 17 estimates the solar radiation amount in the designated time unit at the designated position during the designated period. It should be noted that the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 corresponds to a means that combines the functions of the solar radiation amount sequence acquiring means 11 and the predicted solar radiation amount acquiring means 16.

For example, in the case of the amount of solar radiation in the past period, the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 acquires satellite images obtained by photographing the sky above the region including the designated position in the designated period at predetermined time intervals, and The amount of solar radiation in a designated time unit may be estimated based on the cloud amount or the like obtained from the satellite image. In addition, the solar radiation amount estimation means 17 acquires, for example, measurement data obtained by measuring the solar radiation amount at a specified position during a specified period or at a point near the position at a predetermined time interval, and specifies from the measured data. It is also possible to estimate the amount of solar radiation for each hour. Further, the solar radiation amount estimation means 17 acquires GPV data including a forecast value regarding weather over the area including the designated position during the designated period, and based on the cloud amount and the like obtained from the GPV data, for example. Then, the solar radiation amount in the designated time unit may be estimated. Further, the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 acquires, for example, if it is a solar radiation amount in a future period, GPV data including a forecast value regarding the weather above the area including the designated position during the designated period, The amount of solar radiation in a designated time unit may be estimated based on the cloud amount or the like obtained from the GPV data.

The time interval for obtaining the satellite image, measurement data, and GPV data does not necessarily have to be the same as the first time unit. In such a case, for example, if the information such as the insolation intensity obtained from those data is fitted to the insolation curve that is a schematic representation of the time variation of the insolation amount, and if the insolation amount in the desired time unit is obtained, Good. The solar radiation amount estimated by the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 may be total solar radiation amount, or may be divided into direct solar radiation amount and scattered solar radiation amount.

The input unit 18 is a unit that acquires the actual power generation amount of the target power generation system, instead of the actual power generation amount acquisition unit 12 of the above-described embodiment, and that acquires information that is an estimated condition of the power generation amount. Is. The input unit 18 inputs, for example, position information of the target power generation system, actual power generation amount, and period information. The input means 18 may have an input interface for allowing the user to input these. The actual power generation amount may be the actual power generation amount during the evaluation period of 2 or more. Further, as will be described later, when the set conversion parameter is used, the input of the actual power generation amount can be omitted.

In addition, when the information (position information and period information) that is the estimation condition of the power generation amount is input, the input unit 18 determines the first hourly solar radiation amount at the installation position of the target power generation system during the evaluation period. , The solar radiation amount estimating means 17 to estimate. Here, since the evaluation period includes a plurality of first time units, a plurality of solar radiation amounts, that is, a solar radiation amount sequence during the evaluation period is estimated. Further, the input unit 18 causes the solar radiation amount estimation unit 17 to estimate the solar radiation amount in the first time unit at the position of the target power generation system during the estimation period.

The output unit 19 also outputs the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period estimated by the power generation amount estimation unit 15.

When the actual power generation amount is input from the input unit 18, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 of the present embodiment receives the input actual power generation amount and the first time unit in the evaluation period estimated by the solar radiation amount estimation unit 17. The conversion parameter is determined based on the solar radiation amount sequence, which is a series of the solar radiation amount, and the conversion information stored in the conversion information storage unit 13.

Further, the power generation amount estimating means 15 is based on the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period estimated by the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 and the conversion parameter estimated by the conversion parameter estimating means 14 during the estimation period. Estimate the amount of power generation in the first time unit of.

FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the estimation system of this embodiment. In the example shown in FIG. 15, first, the input unit 18 inputs the position information, the actual power generation amount, and the period information (step S401). As described above, when the conversion parameter that has been set is used, the input of the actual power generation amount can be omitted.

Next, the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 estimates a solar radiation amount sequence (a series of solar radiation amounts in the first time unit) at the position of the target power generation system during the evaluation period (step S402). When a plurality of actual power generation amounts are input, the solar radiation amount estimation means 17 estimates the solar radiation amount sequence at the position of the target power generation system during the evaluation period in which each actual power generation amount is calculated.

Next, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 outputs the actual power generation amount output from the input unit 18, the solar radiation amount sequence during the evaluation period of the estimated actual power generation amount, and the conversion stored in the conversion information storage unit 13. The conversion parameter is determined based on the information (step S403). When a plurality of sets of the actual power generation amount and the solar radiation amount sequence are input, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 determines the conversion parameter for each set and then determines the final conversion parameter. The operation of step S403 may be the same as the operation of step S102 of the first to third embodiments. Further, when using the set conversion parameter, the operation of step S403 is omitted.

Next, the solar radiation amount estimating means 17 estimates the solar radiation amount in the first time unit at the position of the target power generation system during the estimation period (step S404). Here, when the estimation period includes a plurality of first time units, the solar radiation amount estimation means 17 estimates a plurality of first time units of the solar radiation amount, that is, a solar radiation amount sequence during the estimation period.

Next, the power generation amount estimation means 15 calculates the first time during the estimation period based on the estimated solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period and the conversion parameter determined by the conversion parameter estimation means 14. The unit power generation amount is estimated (step S405). Here, when the estimation period includes a plurality of first time units, the power generation amount estimation unit 15 estimates a plurality of power generation amounts in the first time unit, that is, a power generation amount sequence during the estimation period. It should be noted that the power generation amount estimation means 15 sets, for each of the first amount of solar radiation during the estimation period, the conversion coefficient corresponding to the time t of the amount of solar radiation in the conversion coefficient string specified by the conversion parameter. It can be applied to obtain the power generation amount at the corresponding time t.

Finally, the output unit 19 outputs the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period, which is the estimation result (step S406).

As described above, according to the present embodiment, the amount of power generation in any time unit of any period of the target power generation system, the information of the period and the time unit, the position information of the target power generation system, and the actual power generation amount, Can be obtained simply by specifying. Furthermore, after setting the conversion parameters, the power generation amount in an arbitrary time unit in an arbitrary period of the target power generation system can be obtained only by designating the estimation condition of the power generation amount.

In each of the above embodiments, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 estimates the conversion parameter at the timing when the first amount of solar radiation and the actual amount of power generation are input, and the result or the learning result based on the result. Although the example in which the above is set as the final conversion parameter has been described, the conversion parameter estimating unit 14 may set the conversion parameter at the following timing, for example.

For example, the conversion parameter estimation means 14 may continue to use the same conversion parameter after setting once. Further, for example, every time the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 estimates or predicts the power generation amount in the first time unit, the conversion parameter is calculated from the insolation amount in the first time unit and the actual power generation amount during the corresponding evaluation period. May be estimated and reset. In such a case, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 sets the conversion parameter each time a new input of the actual power generation amount and the solar radiation amount of the first time unit during the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated is newly input. It may be estimated and reset.

Further, for example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 estimates the conversion parameter for each predetermined period (for example, one week, one month, three months, etc.) in which the weather information such as the temperature and the position of the sun changes due to a change in the season. You may try again. For example, when the system periodically acquires the first hourly solar radiation amount and the actual power generation amount during the latest evaluation period, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 uses the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 for a predetermined period during which the weather information changes. Each time, the currently set conversion parameter may be cleared and the conversion parameter may be re-estimated from the newly acquired information.

In addition, for example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 uses the conversion parameter currently set and estimates the power generation amount during a certain estimation period (integrated power generation amount) and the actual value of the actual power generation amount obtained during the estimation period obtained thereafter. The conversion parameter may be reset when the prediction accuracy calculated from the difference with the (actual power generation amount) falls below a certain threshold. For example, the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 evaluates the prediction accuracy at the timing when the estimation period is over, and if the prediction accuracy is below a certain threshold as a result, clears the currently set conversion parameter and then The conversion parameters may be re-estimated at the timing when the actual power generation amount and the solar radiation amount sequence are input (at the time of the next prediction request, after a fixed period, etc.). Note that the conversion parameter estimation unit 14 can immediately request and re-estimate the actual power generation amount and the solar radiation amount sequence when the conversion parameter resetting is determined. According to the method of resetting the conversion parameters according to the prediction accuracy, while suppressing the calculation cost, when the amount of sunshine changes due to changes in the surrounding conditions such as the construction of a new building, or the deterioration of the panel over time occurs. Even if it occurs, a highly accurate conversion parameter can be obtained.

The above-mentioned setting, clearing, and resetting of the conversion parameter may be read as the determination of the candidate of the conversion coefficient sequence contained in the conversion information, the parameters and constraint conditions regarding the power generation system, and the clearing/re-determining of the determined state.

Further, in each of the above-described embodiments, an example in which the conversion parameter and the power generation amount in the first time unit are estimated for each power generation system has been shown, but the conversion parameter and the power generation amount in the first time unit are estimated by, for example, It is also possible to carry out in a predetermined area unit.

In such a case, for example, the conversion parameter may be estimated based on the actual power generation amount obtained in the target area during the evaluation period and the series of average solar radiation amounts in the target area during the evaluation period. The conversion parameter estimation method is the same as that for the power generation system unit. If the conversion parameters are estimated on a regional basis, the time when the actual power generation amount is obtained from the information on the solar radiation amount and the actual power generation amount in the region even if the number of power generation systems in the region and their specifications are not clear. It is possible to easily obtain information on the amount of power generation in units of time shorter than the unit. Even when the units for which the conversion parameters are estimated are different, the above example can be given as an example of the conversion parameter setting timing.

Next, a configuration example of a computer according to each embodiment of the present invention will be shown. FIG. 16 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration example of a computer according to each embodiment of the present invention. The computer 1000 includes a CPU 1001, a main storage device 1002, an auxiliary storage device 1003, an interface 1004, and a display device 1005.

The estimation system of each of the above embodiments may be implemented in the computer 1000. In that case, the operation of the estimation system may be stored in the auxiliary storage device 1003 in the form of a program. The CPU 1001 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 1003, expands it in the main storage device 1002, and executes the predetermined processing in each embodiment according to the program.

The auxiliary storage device 1003 is an example of a non-transitory tangible medium. Other examples of non-transitory tangible media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, semiconductor memories, etc. connected via the interface 1004. Further, when this program is distributed to the computer 1000 via a communication line, the computer to which the program is distributed may have the program expand the program in the main storage device 1002 and execute a predetermined process in each embodiment.

Further, the program may be a program for realizing a part of the predetermined processing in each embodiment. Further, the program may be a difference program that realizes a predetermined process in each embodiment in combination with another program already stored in the auxiliary storage device 1003.

Further, depending on the processing content in the embodiment, some elements of the computer 1000 can be omitted. For example, the display device 1005 may be omitted if the estimation system does not present information to the user. Although not shown in FIG. 16, the computer 1000 may include an input device depending on the processing content of the embodiment. For example, the estimation system 4 of the fourth embodiment may include an input device for inputting position information, actual power generation amount, and period information.

Further, some or all of the constituent elements of each device are implemented by a general-purpose or dedicated circuit (Circuitry), a processor, or a combination thereof. These may be configured by a single chip, or may be configured by a plurality of chips connected via a bus. Further, some or all of the constituent elements of each device may be realized by a combination of the above-described circuits and the like and a program.

When some or all of the components of each device are realized by a plurality of information processing devices, circuits, etc., the plurality of information processing devices, circuits, etc. may be centrally arranged or distributed. Good. For example, the information processing device, the circuit, and the like may be realized as a form in which a client and server system, a cloud computing system, and the like are connected to each other via a communication network.

Next, the outline of the present invention will be described. FIG. 17 is a block diagram showing an outline of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 17, the estimation system of the present invention includes conversion parameter estimation means 101.

The conversion parameter estimation unit 101 uses the actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit longer than the first time unit of the target power generation system or the target region, and the installation position or target region of the target power generation system. Of the first amount of solar radiation in the second time unit based on the amount of solar radiation in the first time unit during the period of calculating the actual amount of power generation in Estimate conversion parameters for conversion into quantities.

As described above, by estimating the conversion coefficient sequence based on the actual value of the power generation amount for a relatively long period and the series of the solar radiation amount for a relatively short period during the period when the actual value is obtained, the target power generation Even if the system characteristics or installation conditions are unknown, it is possible to obtain more detailed information because the amount of solar radiation can be converted into the amount of power generation in a relatively short time.

The estimation system of the present invention may have a configuration as shown in FIG. 18 or FIG. 19, for example. 18 and 19 are block diagrams showing another configuration of the estimation system according to the present invention.

That is, the estimation system uses, in advance, as conversion information, a conversion coefficient sequence that is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation that converts each of the first amount of solar radiation in the second time unit into the amount of power generation. Storing candidate information or information on constraint conditions given to a predetermined mathematical planning model that solves a conversion coefficient sequence in which the integrated power generation amount that is the integrated value of the power generation amount in the first time unit after conversion is closest to the actual power generation amount The conversion parameter estimation unit 101 may include the conversion information storage unit 102 for estimating the conversion parameter using a candidate or constraint condition of the conversion coefficient sequence specified by the conversion information.

Further, the conversion information storage means 102 stores, as the conversion information, information of a plurality of conversion coefficient sequence candidates, and the conversion parameter estimation means 103 uses the conversion coefficient sequence candidates indicated by the conversion information to perform provisional integrated power generation. A conversion coefficient string is determined based on the result of calculating the quantity, and the determined conversion coefficient string or a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate the conversion coefficient string is estimated as a conversion parameter.

In addition, the first amount of insolation is divided into direct insolation and scattered insolation, and the conversion information is information on candidates for the first conversion coefficient sequence applied to direct insolation and scattered insolation. Information of a second transform coefficient sequence candidate to be applied to the transform parameter estimating means 101, and the transform parameter estimating means 101 uses at least the first transform coefficient sequence candidate and the second transform coefficient sequence candidate indicated by the transform information. Based on the result of calculating the provisional integrated power generation amount, one set of conversion coefficient strings is determined, and the set of conversion coefficient strings thus determined or the parameters related to the power generation system used for generating each conversion coefficient string of the set is set. , May be estimated as a conversion parameter.

Further, the conversion information may include information on a candidate of a conversion coefficient sequence in which at least a ratio of the horizontal surface solar radiation amount and the inclined surface solar radiation amount in a combination of a plurality of azimuth angles and a plurality of inclination angles is expressed.

Further, the second time unit is one cycle or more in the periodicity of the solar declination, and the conversion information may include information on a candidate of a conversion coefficient sequence having the same periodicity as the solar declination. ..

In addition, the conversion information may include information on conversion coefficient string candidates having a constant value.

In addition, the conversion information may include parameter information about the power generation system used to generate each candidate of the conversion coefficient sequence.

In addition, the transform parameter estimation unit 101 generates a new transform coefficient sequence candidate by multiplying two or more transform coefficient sequence candidates selected from the transform coefficient sequence candidates indicated by the transform information. The tentative integrated power generation amount may be calculated using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates including the new conversion candidate sequence candidates.

Further, the conversion information includes a plurality of conversion coefficient string candidate tables in which the candidate of the conversion coefficient string is registered for each type of the parameter related to the power generation system used for generating the candidate of the conversion coefficient string, and the conversion parameter estimation unit 101 converts the conversion coefficient string candidate table. One or a plurality of transform coefficient sequence candidates may be selected from each of the coefficient sequence candidate tables, and these may be multiplied to generate a new transform coefficient sequence candidate.

Further, the conversion information storage unit stores, as the conversion information, information on the constraint condition given to the predetermined mathematical programming model, and the conversion parameter estimation unit 101 uses the constraint condition indicated by the conversion information to generate the predetermined mathematical programming model. The conversion coefficient sequence may be determined by solving, and the determined conversion coefficient sequence or a parameter related to the power generation system indicated by the constraint condition when determining the conversion coefficient sequence may be estimated as the conversion parameter.

In addition, the estimation system, based on the conversion parameter and the installation position of the target power generation system or the amount of solar radiation in the first time unit during the arbitrary period in the target area, the power generation in the first time unit during the arbitrary period. The power generation amount estimation means 103 for estimating the amount may be provided.

In addition, each of the above-described embodiments can be described as the following supplementary notes.

(Supplementary Note 1) Position information, actual power generation amount that is the actual value of power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit, and period information related to the estimation period for obtaining the power generation amount in the first time unit. Input means for inputting at least, the solar radiation amount sequence that is the series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit in the period in which the actual power generation amount at the position indicated by the position information is calculated, and the estimation period at the position indicated by the position information Based on the solar radiation amount estimating means for estimating the solar radiation amount in the first time unit, the actual power generation amount, and the solar radiation amount column in the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated, the first solar radiation amount in the second time unit. Based on the conversion parameter estimating means for estimating the conversion parameter for converting each of the hourly solar radiation amount into the power generation amount, the conversion parameter, and the first hourly solar radiation amount during the estimation period. An estimation system comprising: a power generation amount estimating means for estimating a power generation amount in a first time unit, and an output means for outputting an estimation result.

(Supplementary Note 2) Actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target region, and the actual position in the installation position of the target power generation system or the target region When the solar radiation amount sequence, which is the series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the power generation amount is calculated, is input, the conversion information stored in advance is the first in the second time unit. Is information on candidates of a conversion coefficient sequence that is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation for converting each of the hourly solar radiation amounts into the power generation amount, or an integrated value of the power generation amount in the first time unit after conversion. Using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates or constraint conditions indicated by the conversion information, which is the constraint condition information given to the predetermined mathematical programming model that solves the conversion coefficient sequence in which the accumulated power generation amount is closest to the actual power generation amount, the second time is used. An estimation method comprising estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the first amount of solar radiation in a unit into a power generation amount.

(Supplementary Note 3) When at least the position information, the actual power generation amount, and the period information regarding the estimated period for obtaining the power generation amount in the first time unit are input, the period in which the actual power generation amount at the position indicated by the position information is calculated. The solar radiation amount column that is the first series of solar radiation amounts in the time unit and the first amount of solar radiation during the estimation period at the position indicated by the position information are acquired, and the actual power generation amount and the actual power generation amount are calculated. A conversion parameter is estimated based on the calculated solar radiation sequence during the period, and based on the conversion parameter and the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period, the conversion time of the first time unit during the estimation period is calculated. The estimation method according to Appendix 2, which estimates the amount of power generation.

(Supplementary note 4) The actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target region, and the installation position or the target region of the target power generation system in the computer. When the solar radiation amount sequence, which is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated, is input, the conversion information is stored in advance and is stored in the second time unit. Information of candidates for a conversion coefficient sequence, which is a series of conversion coefficients used in the conversion equation for converting each of the first hourly solar radiation amounts into the power generation amount, or the integrated first power generation amount after conversion Using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates or constraint conditions indicated by the conversion information, which is the information of the constraint conditions given to the predetermined mathematical programming model that solves the conversion coefficient sequence in which the accumulated power generation amount that is the value is closest to the actual power generation amount, An estimation program for executing a process of estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the first amount of solar radiation in the second time unit into the amount of power generation.

(Supplementary Note 5) A process of inputting at least position information, actual power generation amount, and period information related to an estimated period for obtaining the power generation amount in the first time unit to the computer, and calculating the actual power generation amount at the position indicated by the position information. For obtaining a solar radiation amount sequence that is a series of solar radiation amounts for the first time unit during the specified period, and a process for acquiring the solar radiation amount for the first time unit during the estimation period at the position indicated by the position information, and the estimated conversion The estimation program according to attachment 4, which executes a process of estimating the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period based on the parameter and the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period.

Although the present invention has been described with reference to the exemplary embodiments and examples, the present invention is not limited to the above-described exemplary embodiments and examples. Various modifications that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the configuration and details of the present invention within the scope of the present invention.

INDUSTRIAL APPLICABILITY The present invention is applicable to not only the power generation amount of a target power generation system in a relatively short time but also the parameters of the power generation system in a predetermined area including one or more power generation systems in a relatively short time. It is suitably applicable.

1, 2, 3, 4 Estimation system 11 Solar radiation amount sequence acquisition means 12 Actual power generation amount acquisition means 13 Conversion information storage means 14 Conversion parameter estimation means 15 Power generation amount estimation means 16 Predicted solar radiation amount acquisition means 17 Solar radiation amount estimation means 18 Input means 19 output means 101 conversion parameter estimation means 102 conversion information storage means 103 power generation amount estimation means 1000 computer 1001 CPU
1002 main memory 1003 auxiliary memory 1004 interface 1005 display device

Claims (10)

The actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target region, and the actual power generation in the installation position of the target power generation system or in the target region. Based on the solar radiation amount sequence which is a series of the solar radiation amount of the first time unit during the period in which the amount is calculated, each of the solar radiation amount of the first time unit in the second time unit is generated. An estimation system characterized by comprising a conversion parameter estimating means for estimating a conversion parameter for converting to. In advance, as conversion information, information on a candidate of a conversion coefficient string which is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion formula for converting each of the solar radiation amounts in the first time unit in the second time unit into the power generation amount, or conversion A conversion information storage unit that stores information on a constraint condition given to a predetermined mathematical planning model that solves a conversion coefficient sequence in which the integrated power generation amount, which is the integrated value of the power generation amount in the first time unit afterward, is closest to the actual power generation amount. Prepare,
The estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the conversion parameter estimation means estimates the conversion parameter using a candidate or a constraint condition of a conversion coefficient sequence specified by the conversion information. The conversion information storage means includes conversion information storage means for storing, as conversion information, information on a plurality of conversion coefficient sequence candidates,
The conversion parameter estimation means determines a conversion coefficient sequence based on the result of calculating the provisional integrated power generation amount using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates indicated by the conversion information, and the determined conversion coefficient sequence or the conversion coefficient sequence. The estimation system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate the is estimated as a conversion parameter. The first amount of solar radiation is divided into direct solar radiation and scattered solar radiation,
The conversion information includes information on a first conversion coefficient sequence candidate applied to the direct solar radiation amount and information on a second conversion coefficient sequence candidate applied to the scattered solar radiation amount,
The conversion parameter estimation unit sets a set of temporary integrated power generation amounts based on the result of calculating the provisional integrated power generation amount using at least the first conversion coefficient sequence candidate and the second conversion coefficient sequence candidate indicated by the conversion information. The estimation system according to claim 3, wherein a conversion coefficient sequence is determined, and a set of the determined conversion coefficient sequence or a parameter related to the power generation system used to generate each conversion coefficient sequence of the set is estimated as a conversion parameter. The conversion parameter estimating means generates a new conversion coefficient sequence candidate by multiplying two or more conversion coefficient sequence candidates selected from the conversion coefficient sequence candidates indicated by the conversion information, and generates the new conversion factor. The estimation system according to claim 3 or 4 , wherein the provisional integrated power generation amount is calculated by using candidates of the conversion coefficient sequence including candidates of the candidate sequence. The power generation amount in the first time unit during the arbitrary period is estimated based on the conversion parameter and the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the arbitrary period in the installation position of the target power generation system or the target area. estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5 having a power generation amount estimation means. At least the position information, the actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit longer than the first time unit, and the period information regarding the estimated period for obtaining the power generation amount in the first time unit are input at least. Input means to
The solar radiation amount sequence that is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the actual power generation amount at the position indicated by the position information is calculated, and the solar radiation amount sequence at the position indicated by the position information during the estimation period. A solar radiation amount estimating means for estimating a solar radiation amount in a first time unit;
Based on the actual power generation amount and the solar radiation amount sequence during the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated, each of the first solar radiation amount in the first time unit in the second time unit is converted into a power generation amount. Conversion parameter estimation means for estimating conversion parameters for
Power generation amount estimating means for estimating the power generation amount in the first time unit during the estimation period based on the conversion parameter and the solar radiation amount in the first time period during the estimation period;
An estimation system comprising: an output unit that outputs an estimation result. The conversion parameter estimation means sets the conversion parameter each time a new actual power generation amount and a solar radiation amount sequence that is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the actual power generation amount is calculated are input. Estimate The estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 7 . The actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target region, and the actual power generation in the installation position of the target power generation system or in the target region. When a solar radiation amount sequence, which is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the amount is calculated, is input, the conversion information is stored in advance, and the conversion information in the second time unit is stored. Information on candidates for a conversion coefficient sequence, which is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation for converting each of the first amount of solar radiation into the amount of generated power, or integration of the converted amount of power generated in the first unit of time after conversion Using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates or constraint conditions indicated by the conversion information, which is the information of the constraint condition given to the predetermined mathematical programming model that solves the conversion coefficient sequence in which the accumulated power generation amount that is the value is the closest to the actual power generation amount, An estimation method, comprising estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the solar radiation amounts of the first time unit in the second time unit into a power generation amount. On the computer,
The actual power generation amount that is the actual value of the power generation amount in the second time unit that is longer than the first time unit in the target power generation system or the target region, and the actual power generation in the installation position of the target power generation system or in the target region. When a solar radiation amount sequence, which is a series of the solar radiation amount in the first time unit during the period in which the amount is calculated, is input, the conversion information is stored in advance, and the conversion information in the second time unit is stored. Information on candidates for a conversion coefficient sequence, which is a series of conversion coefficients used in a conversion equation for converting each of the first amount of solar radiation into the amount of generated power, or integration of the converted amount of power generated in the first unit of time after conversion Using the conversion coefficient sequence candidates or constraint conditions indicated by the conversion information, which is the information of the constraint condition given to the predetermined mathematical programming model that solves the conversion coefficient sequence in which the accumulated power generation amount that is the value is the closest to the actual power generation amount, An estimation program for executing a process of estimating a conversion parameter for converting each of the solar radiation amounts in the first time unit in the second time unit into a power generation amount.

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