JP6693329B2 - Transportation / delivery planning program, transportation / delivery planning method, and transportation / delivery planning device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a transportation / delivery planning program, a transportation / delivery planning method, and a transportation / delivery planning apparatus for planning transportation / delivery of goods to and from a warehouse.

  In the distribution of goods, an inventory warehouse is provided in order to shorten the transportation time to the shipping destination after receiving an order. Further, inventory warehouses are hierarchically provided to improve efficiency of transportation time and inventory cost (Patent Document 1).

JP 2001-315919 A

  The inventory quantity of each warehouse is decided based on the order forecast. However, when the forecast order quantity is set as the stock quantity, and when the order quantity exceeds the forecast quantity, the stockout occurs. Therefore, the amount of inventory held in the warehouse needs to exceed the predicted order quantity.

  As an arrangement configuration of warehouses, there are cases where an intermediate warehouse is provided between an end warehouse that ships goods to a delivery destination and a supplier of the goods and the end warehouse. In this case, the inventory exceeding the expected order quantity is held in the terminal warehouse or the intermediate warehouse.

  When the inventory exceeding the forecast order quantity is held in the terminal warehouse, the transportation cost can be kept low by the delivery leveling, but there is a drawback that the inventory cost increases as the forecast period increases.

  On the other hand, when holding the inventory in excess of the estimated order quantity in the intermediate warehouse, the inventory cost can be kept low. However, the longer the forecast period, the greater the cost corresponding to the margin for transportation and delivery. Therefore, the transportation and delivery cost increases.

  In one aspect, the present invention aims to reduce logistics costs, including inventory costs and transportation costs.

  In one aspect, a computer for carrying out a transportation / delivery plan between a plurality of end warehouses to which the goods are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the goods are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses is provided to the computer for each of the plurality of end warehouses. The predicted shipment amount of the goods and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount are acquired, and based on the acquired predicted shipment amount and the actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate warehouse is stored. The intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when holding the inventory, and the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding the inventory in each of the plurality of end warehouses is calculated, and at the calculated plurality of prediction points Based on the intermediate safety stock amount and the end safety stock amount, switching from holding of the inventory in the intermediate warehouse to holding in the plurality of end warehouses, and to the plurality of end warehouses To perform a process of outputting a switching point-in-time for the switch to the quasi-phased transportation and delivery.

  According to one aspect, it is possible to reduce distribution costs.

It is a block diagram showing an example of composition of an inventory management system. It is a block diagram which shows the hardware structural example of a switching date calculation apparatus. It is explanatory drawing which shows a warehouse model. It is an explanatory view showing an example of a record layout of preliminary and actual DB. It is an explanatory view showing an example of a record layout of margin DB. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of the main process of a switching date calculation apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of a switching date calculation process. 4 is a table showing an example of processing target data. It is explanatory drawing which shows the process process of a switching day calculation process. It is a list showing the necessary stock amount. It is a list showing the same day inventory of each front. It is a graph showing inventory cost. It is a graph showing transportation cost. It is a graph showing physical distribution costs. It is a block diagram showing an example of functional composition of a switching day calculation device.

  Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

Embodiment 1
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of an inventory management system 100. The inventory management system 100 includes a switching date calculation device (transportation / delivery planning device) 1, a shipping prediction device 2, and a delivery optimization device 3. The switching date calculation device 1, the shipping prediction device 2, and the delivery optimization device 3 are connected by a network N so that they can communicate with each other. The switching date calculation device 1, the shipping prediction device 2, and the delivery optimization device 3 are computers, workstations, desktop PCs (personal computers), notebook PCs, and the like. As the configuration of the inventory management system 100, the switching date calculation device 1 and the shipping prediction device 2 or the delivery optimization device 3 may be one device. Further, instead of the system, the switching date calculation device 1, the shipping prediction device 2, and the delivery optimization device 3 may be a single device.

  The switching date calculation device 1 calculates a switching date for switching from holding inventory in an intermediate warehouse to holding it in a plurality of terminal warehouses and switching to leveled transportation and delivery to a plurality of terminal warehouses. .. The shipping prediction device 2 performs shipping prediction based on the shipping record. The delivery optimizing device 3 equalizes the delivery amount to the warehouse.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration example of the switching date calculation device 1. The switching date calculation device 1 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 11, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 12, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 13, a large-capacity storage unit 14, a communication unit 15, and a reading unit 16. The components are connected by a bus B.

  The CPU 11 controls each part of the hardware according to the control program (transportation and delivery planning program) 1P stored in the ROM 12. The RAM 13 is, for example, SRAM (Static RAM), DRAM (Dynamic RAM), or flash memory. The RAM 13 temporarily stores data generated when the CPU 11 executes the program.

  The large-capacity storage unit 14 is, for example, a hard disk, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or the like. The large-capacity storage unit 14 stores a prediction DB (DataBase) 141 and a margin DB 142 described later. Further, the control program 1P may be stored in the mass storage unit 14.

  The communication unit 15 communicates with the shipping prediction device 2 and the delivery optimization device 3 via the network N.

  The reading unit 16 reads the portable storage medium 1a including a CD (Compact Disc) -ROM and a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) -ROM. The CPU 11 may read the control program 1P from the portable storage medium 1a via the reading unit 16 and store it in the large-capacity storage unit 14. Further, the CPU 11 may download the control program 1P from another computer via the network N and store the control program 1P in the mass storage unit 14. Furthermore, the CPU 11 may read the control program 1P from the semiconductor memory 1b.

In explaining the functions and operations of the inventory management system 100, the premise of inventory and transportation will be described. In inventory management, the concept of safety inventory to prevent opportunity loss is used to forecast inventory with a margin. The inventory quantity is determined by predicting the shipment quantity based on the past shipment record. However, if the estimated shipment amount is used as it is, the forecast amount may be missed and an opportunity loss may occur. In other words, when an order is received that exceeds the inventory quantity (= estimated shipment quantity), a stockout occurs and the order cannot be handled. Therefore, the stock quantity is set to be larger than the predicted shipment quantity. Providing a margin in this way is called safety stock. In addition, the amount added from the predicted shipment amount is called the inventory margin (safety inventory amount). It is assumed that the distribution of shipping forecasts follows a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ ² , and the inventory margin is the value of + σ of the distribution. That is, the inventory margin is the addition of + σ from the average value μ.

  Further, in the field of transportation and delivery, it is possible to make predictions and arrangements with a margin in the amount of transportation and delivery by securing in advance the number of transportation and delivery means (trucks, etc.) that can support the planned maximum amount of transportation and delivery. Has been done. Therefore, when planning the delivery and delivery, if the delivery and delivery amount is leveled on each day within the forecast period, the cost becomes optimum.

  Usually, in the field of logistics, front-end warehouses (end-point warehouses) related to delivery to end stores and mother warehouses (intermediate warehouses) that coordinate delivery to each front-end warehouse are linked. Has been done. In this embodiment, the following warehouse model is used. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a warehouse model. As shown in FIG. 3, in this embodiment, a two-level warehouse model is used. In the example shown in FIG. 3, there are one mother warehouse and two front warehouses. The front warehouses are called front 1 and front 2, respectively. The mother warehouse receives the delivery of goods from the upper hierarchy. The upper hierarchy is, for example, a warehouse higher than the mother warehouse, an article production factory, an article supplier, and the like. The articles delivered to the mother warehouse are delivered to the front warehouse 1 and the front warehouse 2, which are lower warehouses. Then, the articles delivered to the front 1 and the front 2 are shipped to the shipping destination.

  As shown in FIG. 3, since the warehouse has a hierarchical structure, how to hold inventory, that is, which hierarchy of warehouse to hold the inventory margin, becomes a problem. There are two types of inventory: intermediate inventory and terminal inventory. A case where the inventory margin is held in an intermediate warehouse like the mother shown in FIG. 3B is called intermediate inventory. The value of the inventory margin in this case is also called an intermediate safety stock amount. A case in which an inventory margin is held in a warehouse at the end that is responsible for shipping, like the front 1 and the front 2 shown in FIG. 3A, is called end inventory. The value of the inventory margin in this case is also called the terminal safety stock amount.

  The delivery optimization device 3 optimizes delivery according to the number of stocks in each warehouse in a predetermined prediction target period. Optimizing delivery depends on how inventory is held. The optimization method of end inventory is called the end inventory / delivery leveling method. In the example illustrated in FIG. 3A, for an article with a certain day of the prediction target period, the predicted shipment amount of the front 1 is d1 and the inventory margin is Δ1. It is assumed that the predicted shipment amount of the front 2 is d2 and the inventory margin Δ2. In this case, the delivery amount to the front 1 is d1 + Δ1. The delivery amount to the front 2 is d2 + Δ2. Then, the delivery amount to the mother is d1 + d2 + Δ1 + Δ2. For the optimization of delivery, the delivery amount is calculated for each product and each warehouse on each day of the prediction target period, and then the delivery is advanced so that the delivery amount for each day is leveled. Each time point at which the prediction is performed is an example of the prediction time point. In the present embodiment, each prediction time point is each day included in the prediction period.

  On the other hand, the optimization method for intermediate inventory is called the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method. FIG. 3B shows an example for the same article on the same day as FIG. 3A. It is assumed that the predicted shipment quantity of the front 1 is d1 and the inventory margin is Δ1. It is assumed that the predicted shipment amount of the front 2 is d2 and the inventory margin Δ2. Since the mother, which is in the middle, holds the inventory margin, the delivery amount to the front 1 is d1 and the delivery amount to the front 2 is d2. The delivery amount to the mother is d1 + d2 + Δ0. Here, Δ0 is the mother's inventory margin. Δ0 is calculated by the following equation (1).

  As shown in Expression (1), Δ0 is the square root of the sum of squares of Δ1 and Δ2. Considering the entire warehouse with mother and two fronts, the inventory cost is smaller for the intermediate inventory. However, in the case of intermediate inventory, delivery of the inventory margin to the front is performed after the order is received. Therefore, the transportation and delivery costs are higher than the end inventory.

  On the other hand, in the case of terminal inventory, the inventory margin is delivered to the front. Therefore, it is possible to optimize the transportation cost including transportation to the front of the inventory margin, and the transportation cost can be reduced. However, the inventory cost increases compared to the intermediate inventory because the front holds inventory for each inventory margin.

  As described above, the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method and the terminal inventory / delivery leveling method have contradictory properties with respect to the transportation / delivery cost and the inventory cost. Therefore, in the present embodiment, at the beginning of the prediction target period, the intermediate inventory having a low inventory cost is set. However, from the middle of the forecast period, we will switch to terminal inventory with low transportation and delivery costs.

  In general, when the prediction is performed from the middle day within a certain period, the prediction accuracy is improved as compared with the prediction on the first day of the period. As a result, the inventory margin is reduced. Therefore, the forecast start date of the end inventory is postponed. The postponed start date of prediction is x days. Then, when the forecast start date is x days, the end inventory margin of x days is smaller than the intermediate inventory margin of x days when the forecast start date is the first day of the period. Therefore, from the first day of the period, the intermediate inventory that is smaller than the case where the terminal inventory is used is maintained, and the robustness is guaranteed to the terminal as in the case where the terminal inventory is set. The terminal inventory margin is an inventory margin when the terminal inventory is set. The intermediate inventory margin is an inventory margin when the intermediate inventory is used.

  Based on the above, intermediate inventory will be used at the beginning of the period, but it will be switched to terminal inventory from x days. As a result, after x days, the goods can be transported to the front warehouse at the end before receiving the order. After x days, the transportation and delivery can be leveled by the forward delivery, so that the transportation and delivery cost can be reduced. As described above, it is possible to achieve both robustness of delivery and reduction of physical distribution cost. Hereinafter, the postponed predicted start date x days will also be referred to as a switching date (switching point).

  In the present embodiment, it is important to find the above-mentioned switching date. In the following description, the warehouse model shown in FIG. 3 is used. The forecast period is 6 days.

  FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the record layout of the preliminary / realistic DB 141. The forecast DB 141 is a database that stores past predicted shipment amounts and actual shipment amounts. The forecast DB 141 includes an article column, a forecast date column, a warehouse name column, a forecast column, a 1-day ahead column, a 2-day ahead column, a 3-day ahead column, a 4-day ahead column, a 5-day ahead column, and a 6-day ahead column. The article column stores information for identifying a target article. The prediction date column stores the date of the prediction. The warehouse name column stores the warehouse name. The forecast column stores the stored distinction between the forecast and the shipment amount. That is, when the stored shipment amount is the predicted shipment amount, the prediction sequence is “prediction”. When the stored shipping amount is the actual shipping amount, the actual / real column is “actual”. The 1-day ahead column to the 6-day ahead column respectively store the predicted shipment amount of each day and the actual shipment amount actually shipped. In the record of the predicted date April 18, 2016, the one-day ahead column stores the predicted shipment amount of 2016/4/19 and the actual shipment amount. The unit of the predicted shipment amount and the actual shipment amount is, for example, a lot. The predicted shipment amount and the actual shipment amount may be stored in another device. For example, the estimated shipping amount may be stored in the device that performs the shipping prediction or the shipping prediction device 2. The actual shipment amount may be stored in a device that performs shipping management or the delivery optimization device 3.

  FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the record layout of the margin DB 142. The margin DB 142 includes an article column, a type column, a one-day ahead column, a two-day ahead column, a three-day ahead column, a four-day ahead column, a five-day ahead column, and a six-day ahead column. The article column stores information for identifying a target article. The type column indicates the type of margin. When the type column is the warehouse name, it indicates the end inventory margin of the warehouse. If the type column is intermediate, it indicates an intermediate inventory margin. Each of the 1-day ahead column to the 6-day ahead column stores the inventory margin of each day. In the example shown in FIG. 5, the margin DB 142 stores the end inventory margins of the front 1 and the front 2, and the intermediate inventory margin of the mother. The unit of the margin is the same as the unit of the forecasted shipping amount.

  Next, the processing performed by the switching date calculation device 1 will be described. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the main processing of the switching date calculation device 1. The CPU 11 of the switching date calculation device 1 selects an article to be processed (step S1). The CPU 11 acquires the predicted shipping amount and the actual shipping amount of the article to be processed from the preliminary / actual DB 141 (step S2). The CPU 11 calculates an inventory margin, that is, an intermediate inventory margin and an end inventory margin from the predicted shipment amount and the actual shipment amount (step S3). The CPU 11 calculates the switching date (step S4). The CPU 11 outputs the switching date (step S5). The CPU 11 determines whether or not there is an unprocessed article (step S6). When the CPU 11 determines that there is an unprocessed article (YES in step S6), the process returns to step S1. When the CPU 11 determines that there is no unprocessed article (NO in step S6), the processing ends. The delivery optimization device 3 levels out the delivery amount after the switching date based on the switching date output by the switching date calculation device 1. The switching date calculation device 1 may level the delivery amount.

  Next, the calculation of the switching date will be described. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the switching date calculation process. The CPU 11 sets the variable n to 2 (step S11). The CPU 11 calculates the end inventory margin from n days ahead (step S12). The CPU 11 determines whether the calculated end inventory margin is less than the intermediate inventory margin (step S13). When the CPU 11 determines that the terminal inventory margin is less than the intermediate inventory margin (YES in step S13), the switching date is set n days ahead (step S14). The CPU 11 returns the process to the calling source. When the CPU 11 determines that the terminal inventory margin does not fall below the intermediate inventory margin (NO in step S13), n is incremented by 1 (step S15). The CPU 11 shifts the processing to step S12 and continues the processing.

  A specific example of the switching date calculation process will be described. FIG. 8 is a table showing an example of the processing target data. FIG. 8A is a list showing an example of an estimated shipping amount of a certain article. FIG. 8B is a list showing an example of an inventory margin for the same article as FIG. 8A. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing the processing steps of the switching date calculation processing. 9A, 8B, and 8C respectively show the end inventory margin and the intermediate inventory margin. The end inventory margin is a value obtained by adding the end inventory margins of the two fronts. FIG. 9A is a table showing the initial state. The intermediate inventory margin is the same as shown in FIG. 8B. The end inventory margin is a value obtained by adding the end inventory margin of front 1 and the end inventory margin of front 2 shown in FIG. 8B.

  FIG. 9B shows a state where the prediction start date of the end inventory margin is set to 2 days ahead, that is, the switching date is assumed to be 2 days ahead. Here, it is assumed that the change in the value does not change even if the forecast start date of the end inventory margin is shifted. That is, when the prediction is started from 2 days ahead, the value of the end inventory margin of 2 days ahead is equal to the value of the end inventory margin of 1 day ahead shown in FIG. 9A. The same applies 3 days later. As shown in FIG. 9B, when the end inventory margin is predicted from two days ahead, the end inventory margin after two days ahead is all higher than the intermediate inventory margin. Therefore, it is inappropriate to set the switching date to two days ahead.

  FIG. 9C shows a state where the end inventory margin prediction start date is three days ahead. The value of the terminal inventory margin is calculated on the same assumption as in FIG. 9B. That is, the end inventory margin of three days ahead is the same as the end inventory margin of one day ahead shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 9C, when the end inventory margin is predicted from three days ahead, the end inventory margin after three days ahead is all lower than the intermediate inventory margin. Therefore, the switching date should be three days ahead.

  Next, delivery leveling from 3 days ahead will be described. FIG. 10 is a list showing the necessary stock amount. The required stock quantity is the predicted shipment quantity plus an inventory margin. FIG. 10 shows the required stock amount after 3 days when the forecast start date of the end inventory margin is 3 days ahead. As shown in FIG. 9C, the terminal inventory margin three days ahead is 20.0. This value is a value obtained by adding the end inventory margins of the front 1 and the front 2. As described above, since the end inventory margins of the front 1 and the front 2 have the same value, the respective end inventory margins are 10.0. As shown in FIG. 4, the predicted shipment amount of front 1 and front 2 three days ahead is 50.0. Therefore, the required inventory quantity of the front 1 and the front 2 three days ahead is 50.0 + 10.0 = 60.0, respectively. On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 9 and the like, the intermediate inventory margin three days ahead is 20.1. The predicted shipment amount of front 1 and front 2 three days ahead is 50.0, respectively. Therefore, the necessary stock amount of the mother is 50.0 + 50.0 + 20.1 = 120.1. After that, when the necessary stock quantities of the front 1 and the front 2 and the mother are calculated in the same manner, the values shown in FIG. 10 are obtained.

  Next, after 3 days, the delivery amount from the mother to the front 1 and the front 2 is leveled. As shown in FIG. 10, the necessary stock amount (intermediate necessary stock amount) of the mother after 3 days is 120.1, 228.3, 338.2, 452.3. Since the required intermediate stock amount after 3 days is monotonically increasing, if the delivery amount for each day is taken as the average value of these four values, it will be leveled. The average value of these four values is 284.7. Here, since the delivery amount to the front 1 and the front 2 is the same, the leveled delivery amount to each front is 284.7 / 2 = 142.35, rounded up to the second decimal place, .4. If the required intermediate stock does not monotonically increase, the amount of delivery to each front may be determined using linear programming.

  FIG. 11 is a list showing the same day inventory of each front desk. FIG. 11 shows the stock amount of each front after 3 days. When the delivery amount to each front is leveled, the inventory amount after 3 days is calculated by the equation (2).

Inventory quantity at the front = inventory quantity on the previous day-shipment quantity on the previous day (amount of inventory at the end) + delivery quantity to the front of the day ... (2)
It should be noted that the stock amount, the delivery amount, and the end stock amount before 2 days ahead are 0.

  The previous day shipment amount (end inventory amount) is the value shown in FIG. The delivery amount to the front desk on the day is uniformly 142.4 as described above. The inventory quantity at the front desk three days ahead is as follows. Since the stock amount before 2 days ahead and the end stock amount are 0, the front stock amount after 3 days is 0-0 + 142.4 = 142.4. The inventory quantity of the front desk four days ahead is 142.4-60 + 142.4 = 224.8. When calculated in the same manner, the inventory quantity of 5 days ahead is 256.2, and the inventory quantity of 6 days ahead is 234.4. A table of the above results is shown in FIG.

  The daily stock quantity of each front shown in FIG. 11 exceeds the necessary stock quantity of each front shown in FIG. Therefore, after 3 days, the product can be shipped without being out of stock.

  Next, the cost of this embodiment is compared with the cost of the terminal inventory / leveling method and the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method. FIG. 12 is a graph showing inventory costs. FIG. 13 is a graph showing the transportation and delivery cost. FIG. 14 is a graph showing distribution costs. In each graph, the alternate long and short dash line indicates the end inventory / leveling method. The dotted line shows the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method. The solid line shows this embodiment. It should be noted that the graphs shown in FIGS. 12 to 14 show the tendency of the change of the value in each method and the magnitude relationship of the value between various methods. The values shown in the graphs of each figure are relative values, not absolute values.

  As shown in FIG. 12, the inventory cost of this embodiment is the same as that of the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method over the entire period. First, from the first day of the period to the xth day, since the intermediate inventory is used, the inventory cost is naturally the same as the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method. After x days, switch to terminal inventory. However, as described above, as the end inventory margin after the xth day, a margin below the intermediate inventory margin predicted from the first day of the period is adopted. As a result, in the present embodiment, it becomes possible to maintain the inventory cost after x days at the same cost as the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method.

  As shown in FIG. 13, the transportation and delivery cost of this embodiment is the same as that of the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method from the first day of the period to the xth day. After x days, the cost is between the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method and the terminal inventory / leveling method. From the first day of the period to the xth day, the intermediate inventory is used, so the transportation and delivery costs are naturally the same as those for the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method. After x days, switch to terminal inventory. By switching, it becomes possible to level the transportation and delivery after x days. Therefore, after the xth day, the shipping cost is reduced compared to the intermediate stock / direct shipping method, although the shipping cost is not improved compared to the shipping cost in the terminal inventory / leveling method for leveling the shipping from the first day.

  The physical distribution cost shown in FIG. 14 indicates the total of costs including the inventory cost and the transportation and delivery cost. As described above, after x days, the inventory cost and the transportation / delivery cost of this embodiment are equal to or reduced as compared with the intermediate inventory / direct delivery method and the terminal inventory / leveling method. As a result, the physical distribution cost after x days in the present embodiment has the lowest value.

As described above, in the present embodiment, the way of holding the inventory is switched from the intermediate inventory to the terminal inventory from the middle day (x days) of the period. The x-th day is a day on which the value of the end inventory margin estimated from the x-day is lower than the intermediate inventory margin obtained from the first day of the period.
As a result, the inventory cost can be made equal to the intermediate inventory, even though the inventory is the terminal inventory after the xth day. Since the end inventory after the xth day includes the inventory margin, it is possible to maintain robustness against the error in the forecasted shipping amount. That is, if the shipping amount based on the actual order is within the error range assumed by the shipping amount prediction (for example, + σ), the product can be shipped without being out of stock.

  Further, from the x-th day onward to the last day of the period, the end inventory can be set, so that the transportation and delivery can be leveled. As a result, after x days, the transportation cost can be optimized. As a result, after x days, it becomes possible to reduce the physical distribution cost including the inventory cost and the transportation and delivery cost.

  Furthermore, the process of obtaining x days is a process of comparing the value of the end inventory margin obtained by forecasting from x days with the value of the intermediate inventory margin obtained by forecasting from the first day of the period. Therefore, the amount of information processing is not so large as the process of performing a complicated operation, and the process can be performed at high speed.

  FIG. 15 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the switching date calculation device 1. The switching date calculation device 1 includes an acquisition unit 11a, a calculation unit 11b, and an output unit 11c. Each of these functional units is realized by the CPU 11 operating based on the control program 1P.

  The acquisition unit 11a acquires the predicted shipment amount of the article for each terminal warehouse and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount. The calculation unit 11b calculates the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse for each of the multiple prediction time points included in the prediction target period, based on the acquired predicted shipment amount and the actual shipment amount, and Calculate the end safety stock amount in multiple end warehouses when stock is held in each end warehouse. The output unit 11c switches the holding of the inventory from the intermediate warehouse to the holding of the plurality of terminal warehouses based on the calculated intermediate safety stock amount and the terminal safety stock amount at a plurality of prediction points, and switches to the plurality of terminal warehouses. Outputs the predicted time point for switching to leveled transportation and delivery.

The technical features (constituent elements) described in each embodiment can be combined with each other, and new technical features can be formed by combining them.
The embodiments disclosed this time are to be considered as illustrative in all points and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined not by the above meaning but by the scope of the claims, and is intended to include meanings equivalent to the scope of the claims and all modifications within the scope.

  Regarding the above embodiment, the following additional notes will be disclosed.

(Appendix 1)
A computer that performs a transportation and delivery plan between a plurality of end warehouses to which the goods are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the goods are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
Obtaining the predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of end warehouses, and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Calculate the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each,
Based on the calculated intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at a plurality of prediction times, switching from holding of the inventory in the intermediate warehouse to holding in the plurality of end warehouses, and leveling to the plurality of end warehouses A transportation / delivery planning program that outputs the switching time point for switching to the designated transportation / delivery.

(Appendix 2)
The switching time point is a time point at which the terminal safety stock amount is calculated when each of the plurality of prediction time points is a prediction start date, and the calculated terminal safety stock amount is below the intermediate safety stock amount. Delivery planning program.

(Appendix 3)
The terminal safety stock amount calculated at the first prediction time of the prediction target period is regarded as the terminal safety stock amount calculated at the intermediate prediction time of the prediction target period,
The terminal safety stock amount when each of the plurality of prediction time points is the prediction start date is the terminal safety stock amount when the first prediction time point of the prediction target period is the prediction start date. Planning program.

(Appendix 4)
The transportation / delivery planning program according to Appendix 2 or Appendix 3, which equalizes the delivery plan to the terminal warehouse from the predicted time point when the terminal safety stock quantity falls below the intermediate safety stock quantity to the final predicted time point of the prediction target period.

(Appendix 5)
The leveling of the delivery plan means that the delivery amount to the terminal warehouse at each prediction time point is an average value of the required delivery amount during the leveling period.

(Appendix 6)
The transportation / delivery planning program according to attachment 4, wherein the delivery planning is leveled using a linear programming method.

(Appendix 7)
A transportation and delivery planning method between a plurality of end warehouses to which articles are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the articles are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
Obtaining the predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of end warehouses, and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Calculate the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each,
Based on the calculated intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at a plurality of prediction times, switching from holding of the inventory in the intermediate warehouse to holding in the plurality of end warehouses, and leveling to the plurality of end warehouses The transportation and delivery planning method that outputs the forecasted time point when switching to the specified transportation and delivery.

(Appendix 8)
In a transportation / delivery planning device for carrying out transportation / delivery planning between a plurality of end warehouses to which the goods are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the goods are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
An acquisition unit that acquires a predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of terminal warehouses and an actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Based on the calculation unit that calculates the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each, and the intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at the calculated multiple prediction times, The transportation / delivery planning apparatus, comprising: an output unit configured to output a predicted time point at which switching from the holding to the holding in the plurality of terminal warehouses and the switching to the leveled transportation / delivery to the plurality of terminal warehouses are output.

100 inventory management system 1 switching date calculation device 11 CPU
11a acquisition unit 11b calculation unit 11c output unit 12 ROM
13 RAM
14 Large-capacity storage 141 Preliminary DB
142 Margin DB
1P control program 2 shipment forecasting device 3 delivery optimization device N network

Claims (5)

A computer that performs a transportation and delivery plan between a plurality of end warehouses to which the goods are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the goods are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
Obtaining the predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of end warehouses, and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Calculate the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each,
Based on the calculated intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at a plurality of prediction times, switching from holding of the inventory in the intermediate warehouse to holding in the plurality of end warehouses, and leveling to the plurality of end warehouses A transportation / delivery planning program that outputs the switching time point for switching to the designated transportation / delivery. The switching time point is a prediction time point when a terminal safety stock amount is calculated when each of the plurality of prediction time points is a prediction start date, and the calculated terminal safety stock amount is lower than the intermediate safety stock. Transportation planning program. The terminal safety stock amount calculated at the first prediction time of the prediction target period is regarded as the terminal safety stock amount calculated at the intermediate prediction time of the prediction target period,
The terminal safety stock amount when each of the plurality of prediction time points is the prediction start date is the terminal safety stock amount when the first prediction time point of the prediction target period is the prediction start date. Delivery planning program. A transportation and delivery planning method between a plurality of end warehouses to which articles are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the articles are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
Obtaining the predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of end warehouses, and the actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Calculate the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each,
Based on the calculated intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at a plurality of prediction times, switching from holding of the inventory in the intermediate warehouse to holding in the plurality of end warehouses, and leveling to the plurality of end warehouses The transportation and delivery planning method that outputs the forecasted time point when switching to the specified transportation and delivery. In a transportation / delivery planning device for carrying out transportation / delivery planning between a plurality of end warehouses to which the goods are shipped and an intermediate warehouse to which the goods are delivered to the plurality of end warehouses,
An acquisition unit that acquires a predicted shipment amount of the article for each of the plurality of terminal warehouses and an actual shipment amount corresponding to the predicted shipment amount,
Based on the obtained predicted shipment amount and actual shipment amount, for each of a plurality of prediction time points included in the prediction target period, the intermediate safety stock amount in the intermediate warehouse when the inventory is held in the intermediate warehouse, and the plurality of end warehouses Based on the calculation unit that calculates the end safety stock amount in the plurality of end warehouses when holding inventory in each, and the intermediate safety stock amount and end safety stock amount at the calculated multiple prediction times, The transportation / delivery planning apparatus, comprising: an output unit configured to output a predicted time point at which switching from the holding to the holding in the plurality of terminal warehouses and the switching to the leveled transportation / delivery to the plurality of terminal warehouses are output.

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