JP6667022B1 - Estimation device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate deterioration of an imaginary closure. SOLUTION: Regarding an aerial closure to be estimated, in an estimation device 1, an initial hinge thickness specifying unit 12 specifies a hinge thickness at the time of manufacturing from a model number or a manufacturing time of the aerial closure, and a present hinge thickness data receiving unit 13 is present. Receives an input of the current hinge thickness of the aerial closure, and the breakage timing estimating unit 14 causes the hinge thickness at the time of manufacturing, the current hinge thickness, the hinge thickness coefficient information related to the aerial closure, and the current hinge thickness. Using the date and time information, the life expectancy period and the breakage time until the hinge portion becomes a thickness at which the hinge part is broken or the like is estimated, and the breakage time display unit 15 displays the life expectancy period and the breakage time of the aerial closure. [Selection diagram] Fig. 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for estimating a life expectancy of an imaginary closure.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, overhead closures have been used to interconnect a plurality of overhead cables and to route a predetermined overhead cable to a user's house (Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2). As shown in Non-Patent Document 1, the aerial closure is manufactured using plastic, and includes a sleeve for protecting and storing the aerial cable, and a hinge portion that allows the upper lid as a sleeve to be opened and closed. For example, the sleeve is a white plastic container shown in Non-Patent Document 1, and the hinge part is a joint between the upper lid and the lower lid that constitute the sleeve.

“High-accommodation aerial light closure”, NTT Access Service System Laboratories, [Searched February 25, 2019], Internet <URL: http://www.ansl.ntt.co.jp/history/media/me0308. html> "Focused Closure", NTT Access Service Systems Laboratories, [Searched February 25, 2019], Internet <URL: http://www.ansl.ntt.co.jp/history/media/me0302.html>

  Aerial closures are usually installed outdoors above utility poles. Therefore, the plastic is susceptible to ultraviolet rays, and the strength of the plastic gradually decreases due to long-term use, and the sleeve may be damaged. Further, since the hinge portion is formed by thinning a part of the plastic, the frequency of opening and closing increases, which may cause cracks and tears. Therefore, birds and insects invade from the broken part of the sleeve or the breach of the hinge part, and furthermore, rainwater invades, causing breakage or damage of the aerial cable, and the replacement operation of the aerial closure occurs. there were.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and an object of the present invention is to estimate the deterioration of an imaginary closure, such as the life expectancy or breakage time of the imaginary closure.

  In order to solve the above problem, an estimating device of the present invention is an estimating device for estimating deterioration of a plastic container installed outdoors, a specifying unit for specifying a hinge thickness before use in a hinge portion of the plastic container, A receiving unit that receives an input of a hinge thickness during use in the hinge unit, a hinge thickness before use, a hinge thickness during use, and a hinge thickness coefficient of a hinge thickness that decreases with use time in the hinge unit. Or an estimating unit that calculates a life expectancy until the hinge portion has a thickness at which the hinge portion is damaged by using the hinge thickness reduction coefficient of the increasing hinge thickness.

  In the estimation device, the identification unit identifies a hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from a model number of the plastic container, and the estimation unit determines the life expectancy using the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture as the hinge thickness before use. calculate.

  In the estimation device, the identification unit calculates a hinge thickness at the time of installation using a hinge thickness at the time of manufacture and an installation time of the plastic container specified from a model number of the plastic container. The life expectancy period is calculated using the hinge thickness at the time of installation as the previous hinge thickness.

  In the above estimating device, the estimating unit calculates, using the date and time information at the time of calculation, a breakage time at which the hinge portion has a thickness that breaks.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate the deterioration of the overhead closure.

It is a figure showing the example of composition of the functional block of an estimation device. It is a figure showing the derivation processing flow of hinge thickness coefficient information. It is a figure which shows the example of generation of the graph of "irradiation time-hinge thickness." It is a figure which shows the example of generation of the graph of "CI-extension of the hinge at the time of fracture." It is a figure which shows the example of generation of the graph of "irradiation time-CI". It is a figure which shows the deterioration estimation processing flow of an imaginary closure. It is a figure showing the derivation processing flow of hinge reduction coefficient information. It is a figure which shows the example of generation | occurrence | production of the graph of "hinge thinning amount-hinge elongation at the time of fracture." It is a figure which shows the example of generation of the graph of "irradiation time-hinge thinning amount".

<Overview>
In each embodiment, the present invention is realized by using a portable computer terminal so that a maintenance person of the telecommunications facility can easily estimate on site. An estimating device for estimating the degree of deterioration of the fictitious closure is installed in the computer terminal so as to be executable. The maintenance person measures the current hinge thickness at the hinge portion of the aerial closure using a digital caliper or the like, and inputs the thickness to the estimation device. In addition, the maintenance person checks the model number and the like of the imaginary closure from the display label and the like on the back surface and inputs the model number to the estimation device. Thereafter, the estimation device specifies the initial hinge thickness at the hinge portion from the model number of the aerial closure, and further uses the input current hinge thickness and the previously derived hinge thickness coefficient or hinge reduction coefficient, The life expectancy and the time of breakage until the hinge part is damaged are calculated. Thus, the degree of deterioration of the overhead closure is estimated. Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

<First embodiment>
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a functional block of the estimation device 1 according to the first embodiment. The estimating device 1 is a device for estimating deterioration due to aging of a plastic overhead closure. For example, the estimation device 1 estimates deterioration caused by installing an aerial closure outdoors for many years and repeatedly opening and closing the hinge.

  The estimating apparatus 1 operates inside the computer terminal, and as shown in FIG. 1, mainly includes an initial hinge thickness data receiving unit 11, an initial hinge thickness specifying unit 12, a current hinge thickness data receiving unit 13, An estimation unit 14, a breakage time display unit 15, an imaginary closure information storage unit 16, a hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17, a hinge thickness coefficient derivation unit 18, and a measurement data reception unit 19 are configured. .

  Initially, the hinge thickness data receiving unit 11 has a function of displaying an input screen for inputting a model number, a manufacturing time, an installation time, and the like of the overhead closure on a monitor of the computer terminal, and receiving an input value input by a maintenance person. Note that the inputtable data may include a hinge thickness at the time of manufacture, a hinge thickness at the time of installation, and the like.

  Initially, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 has a function of specifying the hinge thickness of the hinge portion of the aerial closure before use. For example, initially, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 refers to the specification information of the imaginary closure and specifies the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from the model number or the manufacturing time of the imaginary closure. Alternatively, the initial hinge thickness specifying unit 12 may estimate and calculate the hinge thickness at the time of installation by giving a constant decreasing rate to the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture using the installation time of the overhead closure. When the hinge thickness at the time of manufacturing or the hinge thickness at the time of installation is input, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 specifies at first using the input value as it is.

  The current hinge thickness data receiving unit 13 displays an input screen for inputting the hinge thickness of the hinge portion of the overhead closure in use (during outdoor installation) on the monitor of the computer terminal, and receives the input value input by the maintenance person. Provide functions.

  The breakage time estimating unit 14 calculates the hinge thickness before use (= the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture or the hinge thickness at the time of installation), the hinge thickness at the time of use, and the hinge that decreases as the use time of the hinge portion of the overhead closure decreases. It has a function of estimating and calculating the life expectancy until the hinge portion has a thickness at which the hinge portion is damaged using the hinge thickness coefficient of the thickness. Further, the breakage time estimating unit 14 has a function of calculating a breakage time at which the hinge portion is damaged by using the date and time information at the time of the estimation calculation.

  The breakage time display unit 15 has a function of displaying the remaining life time and breakage time of the hinge portion of the imaginary closure on a monitor of the computer terminal.

  The imaginary closure information storage unit 16 has a function of storing specification information of the imaginary closure.

  The hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17 has a function of storing hinge thickness coefficient information relating to a hinge thickness coefficient used for estimating the life expectancy and breakage time of the hinge part in the overhead closure.

  The hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 has a function of calculating the hinge thickness coefficient information.

  The measurement data receiving unit 19 has a function of displaying an input screen for inputting measurement data necessary for calculating the hinge thickness coefficient information on a monitor of the computer terminal and receiving an input value input by a maintenance person.

  Note that the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 and the measurement data receiving unit 19 are functional units for the purpose of deriving hinge thickness coefficient information, and have a different purpose from the estimation of the life expectancy, which is the purpose of the estimating apparatus 1. , May be implemented in a device other than the estimation device 1. Thereby, the processing amount of the estimation device 1 is reduced, and the estimation processing speed can be improved.

  The estimating apparatus 1 can be connected to the fictitious closure information database 3 via the Internet in a wired or wireless manner. The fictitious closure information database 3 is a public database managed by the fictitious closure manufacturer and the like, and stores specification information of the fictitious closure.

  Next, a method of deriving hinge thickness coefficient information will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a flow of a process of deriving hinge thickness coefficient information.

Step S101;
The maintenance person prepares the same imaginary closure as the imaginary closure being installed outdoors, continuously irradiates the imaginary closure with ultraviolet rays in a predetermined test environment, and opens and closes the hinge portion a predetermined number of times at a predetermined timing. Perform the operation of In order to shorten the time, ultrasonic irradiation (SSW irradiation) is performed instead of ultraviolet irradiation (UV irradiation).

  Then, the maintenance person measures the hinge thickness of the hinge portion at a predetermined timing. For example, the maintenance person prepares three aerial closures, and for each of them, (1) only 30 opening / closing operations every 100 hours, (2) only ultraviolet irradiation, and (3) ultraviolet irradiation and every 100 hours. The opening / closing operation is performed 30 times, and the hinge thickness is measured every 100 hours.

  Thereafter, the measurement data receiving unit 19 of the estimation device 1 receives the input of the measured values, and the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 plots the measured values on a graph G1 of “irradiation time−hinge thickness”, and first square method Then, a linear function Fa approximating each measured value is derived using, for example, FIG. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a generation example of the graph G1, and three linear functions Fa1 to Fa3 corresponding to the above (1) to (3) are derived. From this result, it is understood that the hinge thickness gradually decreases as the irradiation time increases, and the hinge opening and closing operation further decreases.

  By using the hinge thickness before use and the hinge thickness during use by using the linear function Fa of the graph G1, it is possible to grasp the irradiation time of ultraviolet rays in the overhead closure.

Step S102;
The decrease in the thickness of the hinge is caused by the oxidization and destruction of the composition of polypropylene (PP), which is a plastic, with the passage of time, causing whitening of the surface of the hinge portion, and the external surface of the hinge portion being subjected to external pressure for opening and closing. It is caused by peeling. The phenomenon of oxidation of the PP composition → whitening of the surface → exfoliation of the surface → oxidation of the PP composition →... Is repeated many times over a long period of years, so that the hinge portion is further thinned, and finally the hinge portion is thinned. At the hinge part.

  Therefore, in step S102, the relationship between the breakage of the hinge portion due to the increase in ultraviolet rays and the external pressure on the hinge portion is grasped. In the present embodiment, a carbonyl index (CI) value is used as an index of the irradiation time. The CI value is a value corresponding to the degree of occurrence of carbonyl groups generated at the same time as the plastic surface is oxidized by ultraviolet light or heat to cause molecular breakage, and is a value used as an index of ultraviolet deterioration.

  The maintenance person applies a predetermined load to the hinge portion of the aerial closure that is installed outdoors and performs opening / closing operations 30 times a year, and measures the elongation of the hinge portion and the CI value when the hinge is broken. Thereafter, the measurement data receiving unit 19 of the estimating apparatus 1 receives the input of the measured values, and the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 plots the measured values on a graph G2 of “CI—hinge extension at break”, First, a linear function Fb approximating each measured value is derived using a square method or the like. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the linear function Fb generated in the graph G2. The measurement results of the extension of the hinge portion when the hinge portion is broken when a heavy load of 2 mm / min is applied to the hinge portion are shown. The linear function Fb1 indicates a case where there is no opening / closing operation, and the linear function Fb2 indicates a case where there is an opening / closing operation.

  By using the linear function Fb of the graph G2, it is possible to grasp the CI value at the time of breaking the hinge portion.

Step S103;
Subsequently, an increasing tendency of the CI value with an increase in the ultraviolet ray is grasped. The maintenance person continuously irradiates the same imaginary closure as the imaginary closure installed outdoors with ultraviolet rays, and measures the CI value of the hinge portion at a predetermined timing. Thereafter, the measurement data receiving unit 19 of the estimating apparatus 1 receives the input of the measured values, and the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 plots the measured values on a graph G3 of “irradiation time-CI” and executes a predetermined method. To derive a nonlinear function Fc that approximates each measured value. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the nonlinear function Fc generated in the graph G3.

  By using the nonlinear function Fc of the graph G3, it is possible to grasp the relationship between the irradiation time of ultraviolet rays and the CI value.

Step S104;
Finally, the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 associates the derived graphs G1 to G3, the linear function Fa, the linear function Fb, and the non-linear function Fc as hinge thickness coefficient information with the type ID of the imaginary closure, and associates the hinge thickness coefficient information with the type ID. The information is stored in the storage unit 17. Note that the linear function Fa corresponds to “a hinge thickness coefficient of a hinge thickness that decreases with the elapse of use time”.

  Next, an estimation method for estimating the deterioration of the imaginary closure will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a flow of a process of estimating deterioration of an imaginary closure.

Step S201;
First, the hinge thickness data receiving unit 11 initially displays an input screen for inputting the model number, manufacturing time, installation time, etc. of the imaginary closure to be estimated on the monitor, and receives the input value input by the maintenance person. . At this time, the initial hinge thickness data receiving unit 11 may also display input fields such as a hinge thickness at the time of manufacturing and a hinge thickness at the time of installation, and may receive those input values.

Step S202;
Next, initially, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 accesses the imaginary closure information storage unit 16 or the imaginary closure information database 3 and acquires specification information corresponding to the imaginary closure to be estimated. Initially, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 refers to the specification information and specifies the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from the input model number or manufacturing time of the aerial closure. At this time, initially, when the installation time of the aerial closure is input, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 gives the hinge thickness at the time of installation to the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture by giving a constant decreasing rate until the installation time. It may be estimated and calculated. The hinge thickness at the time of installation and the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture are generally the same, but since it is sometimes stored in a warehouse after manufacture, use the accurate timing and hinge thickness at the time of installation to improve estimation accuracy. The more accurate the estimation result is obtained. When the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture and the hinge thickness at the time of installation have been input, the hinge thickness specifying unit 12 specifies at first using those input values as they are.

Step S203;
Next, the maintenance person measures the hinge thickness of the fictitious closure to be estimated using a digital caliper. Then, the current hinge thickness data receiving unit 13 displays an input screen for inputting the current hinge thickness at the hinge portion of the imaginary closure on the monitor, and receives the input value input by the maintenance person. Note that the digital caliper preferably has a resolution that can be detected at 1/100 mm.

Step S204;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 acquires hinge thickness coefficient information relating to the imaginary closure to be estimated from the hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17. The breakage time estimating unit 14 uses the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture or the hinge thickness at the time of installation, the current hinge thickness, the hinge thickness coefficient information, and the current date and time information to determine whether the hinge portion is broken or the like. Estimate and calculate the life expectancy and the time of breakage until the thickness is reduced. Hereinafter, a specific example of the estimation calculation will be described.

Step S204-1;
First, the breakage time estimation unit 14 selects any one of the three linear functions Fa1 to Fa3 included in the graph G1 shown in FIG. Alternatively, two irradiation times respectively corresponding to the hinge thickness at the time of installation and the current hinge thickness are specified, and the difference between the two irradiation times is determined, thereby calculating the irradiation time of the ultraviolet rays that have been irradiated to the estimated closure. . For example, when the linear function Fa3 is selected, the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture or the hinge thickness at the time of installation is 0.52 mm, and the current hinge thickness is 0.4 mm, the irradiation time of ultraviolet rays is about 1300 hours.

Step S204-2;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 receives an input of the elongation value of the broken hinge part regarding the imaginary closure to be estimated, and performs maintenance of the two linear functions Fb1 and Fb2 included in the graph G2 shown in FIG. One of the linear functions Fb is selected based on the user's specification, and the CI value corresponding to the elongation value of the broken hinge part is specified. The elongation value of the broken hinge part is, for example, an average value of the plot group of the graph G2, a value determined in advance by a maintenance person, a value obtained by measuring the elongation of breakage of the hinge part that has broken in the past, or an average value thereof. It is. Since the breaking elongation of the broken hinge portion measured from the collected product (aerial closure) collected in the past was approximately 1.0 mm, when the linear function Fb2 was selected, the CI value was about 0.423. Therefore, when the CI value deteriorates to 0.423, it is considered that a hinge crack occurs. When the linear function Fb1 is used, the CI value is about 0.8.

Step S204-3;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 estimates and calculates the life span of the imaginary closure to be estimated from the graph G3 shown in FIG. Specifically, the irradiation time corresponding to the CI value calculated in step S204-2 is specified, and is set as the life span of the imaginary closure to be estimated. For example, in the above example, since the CI value is 0.423, the lifetime is about 1615 hours. When converted to ultraviolet irradiation (× 1/118), the lifetime is about 13.7 years. When the CI value without performing the opening / closing operation is about 0.8, the lifetime is about 80 years in terms of ultraviolet irradiation.

Step S204-4;
Finally, the damage time estimation unit 14 subtracts the irradiation time calculated in step S204-1 from the life time calculated in step S204-3, thereby obtaining the remaining life time (= remaining usable time) of the imaginary closure to be estimated. ) Is calculated, and the time of damage (= current date / time + life expectancy) is calculated using the current date / time information. In the case of the above example, 315 hours (= 1615 hours-1300 hours) is the remaining life period, and the current date and time +315 hours later is the damage time.

Step S205;
Finally, the breakage time display section 15 displays the remaining life time and breakage time of the hinge on the monitor. At this time, the damage time display unit 15 displays the life expectancy and the damage time of the fictitious closure to be estimated. As a result, the maintenance person can grasp the approximate remaining usable period and usable period of the fictitious closure to be estimated. As a result, it is possible to take proactive measures such as exchanging the aerial closure in advance before the usable time of the aerial closure comes, and it is possible to suppress communication disconnection and provide stable communication.

  Steps S204-2 and S204-3 may be executed in advance before starting this processing, and the life period may be calculated in advance. In this case, step S204 executes only steps S204-1 and S204-4.

  According to the first embodiment, for the imaginary closure to be estimated, the initial hinge thickness specifying unit 12 specifies the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from the model number or the manufacturing time of the imaginary closure, and the current hinge thickness data receiving unit 13 Receives the input of the current hinge thickness of the aerial closure, and the breakage time estimating unit 14 determines that the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture, the current hinge thickness, the hinge thickness coefficient information of the aerial closure, The date and time information is used to estimate the life expectancy and the damage time until the hinge portion has a thickness such as breakage or the like, and the damage time display unit 15 displays the life expectancy and the damage time of the imaginary closure. Deterioration of the overhead closure can be estimated. In other words, it is possible to accurately determine the imaginary closure to be replaced, greatly reduce the possibility of communication disconnection, and provide stable communication.

<Second embodiment>
In the first embodiment, the case where the hinge thickness coefficient of the hinge thickness that decreases with the lapse of the use time in the hinge portion is used has been described. In the second embodiment, a case will be described in which a hinge thickness reduction coefficient of the hinge thickness which increases with use time in the hinge portion is used. Hinge reduction is the difference between the hinge thickness before the passage of time and the hinge thickness after the passage of time.

  The estimating apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment has the same functions as those described in the first embodiment. However, the present embodiment is different from the first embodiment in the functions of the breakage time estimation unit 14, the hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17, the hinge thickness coefficient derivation unit 18, and the measurement data reception unit 19.

  The breakage time estimating unit 14 uses the hinge thinning coefficient of the hinge thinning that increases with the lapse of the use time of the hinge portion of the aerial closure to determine the life expectancy period and breakage time until the hinge portion is broken. A function for estimating and calculating is provided.

  The hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17 has a function of further storing hinge thickness reduction coefficient information relating to a hinge thickness reduction coefficient used for estimating the life expectancy and breakage time of the hinge portion of the overhead closure.

  The hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 has a function of calculating the hinge reduction coefficient information.

  The measurement data receiving unit 19 has a function of displaying an input screen for inputting measurement data necessary for calculating the hinge reduction coefficient information on a monitor of the computer terminal, and receiving an input value input by a maintenance person. .

  Next, a method of deriving the hinge reduction coefficient will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a flow of a process of deriving hinge thickness coefficient information including a hinge reduction coefficient.

Step S301;
In the first embodiment, the CI value is used as an index of the irradiation time in step S102. On the other hand, in the second embodiment, a hinge thickness reduction amount is used instead of the CI value.

  The maintainer applies a predetermined load to the hinge portion of the imaginary closure that is being installed outdoors, performs opening and closing operations 30 times a year, and measures the extension of the hinge portion and the amount of hinge reduction when ruptured. I do. Thereafter, the measurement data receiving unit 19 of the estimation device 1 receives the input of the measured values, and the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 converts the measured values into a graph G4 of “Hinge thinning amount−Hinge extension at break”. Plotting is performed, and a linear function Fd that approximates each measurement value is first derived using the square method or the like. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of the linear function Fd generated in the graph G4.

  By using the linear function Fd of the graph G4, it is possible to grasp the amount of reduction in the thickness of the hinge when the hinge is broken.

Step S302;
Next, the tendency of the increase in the thickness of the hinge with the increase in the ultraviolet light is grasped. The maintenance person continuously irradiates the same imaginary closure as the imaginary closure installed outdoors with ultraviolet rays, and measures the hinge thickness reduction of the hinge portion at a predetermined timing. Thereafter, the measurement data receiving unit 19 of the estimating apparatus 1 receives the input of the measured values, and the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 plots the measured values on a graph G5 of “irradiation time−hinge thinning amount” and performs a predetermined measurement. A non-linear function Fe approximating each measured value is derived using the method described in (1). FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of the nonlinear function Fe generated in the graph G5.

  By using the nonlinear function Fe of the graph G5, it is possible to grasp the relationship between the irradiation time of the ultraviolet rays and the amount of reduction in the thickness of the hinge.

Step S303;
Finally, the hinge thickness coefficient deriving unit 18 associates the derived graphs G4 and G5, the linear function Fd, and the non-linear function Fe as hinge reduction coefficient information with the type ID of the imaginary closure and stores the hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17. To memorize. Note that the non-linear function Fe corresponds to “a hinge reduction coefficient of a hinge reduction that increases with the elapse of use time”.

  Next, an estimation method for estimating the deterioration of the aerial closure will be described. The estimation method according to the second embodiment is the same as the estimation method according to the first embodiment shown in FIG. Here, step S204 different from the first embodiment will be described as step S204 '.

Step S204 ′;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 acquires hinge thickness reduction coefficient information on the imaginary overhead closure to be estimated from the hinge thickness coefficient information storage unit 17. The breakage time estimating unit 14 uses the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture or the hinge thickness at the time of installation, the current hinge thickness, the hinge reduction coefficient information, and the current date and time information to determine whether the hinge portion is broken or the like. Estimate and calculate the life expectancy and breakage time until the thickness is broken. Hereinafter, a specific example of the estimation calculation will be described.

Step S204'-1;
First, the breakage time estimating unit 14 receives the input of the elongation value of the broken hinge part with respect to the imaginary closure to be estimated, and obtains the elongation value of the broken hinge part from the linear function Fd included in the graph G4 shown in FIG. Identify the amount of hinge reduction corresponding to. In the same manner as in the first embodiment, the elongation at break of the hinge portion that has been broken from the collected product collected in the past is determined, and the hinge thickness reduction amount is specified.

Step S204'-2;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 estimates and calculates the life span of the aerial closure to be estimated from the graph G5 shown in FIG. Specifically, the irradiation time corresponding to the hinge thickness reduction calculated in step S204'-1 is specified, and is set as the life span of the imaginary closure to be estimated.

Step S204'-3;
Next, the breakage time estimating unit 14 calculates the current hinge reduction amount by subtracting the current hinge thickness from the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture or the hinge thickness at the time of installation, and applies this to the graph G5 shown in FIG. By doing so, the irradiation time of the ultraviolet ray which has been irradiated on the imaginary closure to be estimated is calculated.

Step S204'-4;
Finally, the damage time estimation unit 14 subtracts the irradiation time calculated in step S204'-3 from the life time calculated in step S204'-2, thereby obtaining the remaining life time (= remaining use) of the imaginary closure to be estimated. A possible period) is calculated, and a damage time (= current date / time + life expectancy) is calculated using the current date / time information.

  According to the second embodiment, for the imaginary closure to be estimated, the initial hinge thickness specifying unit 12 specifies the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from the model number or the manufacturing time of the imaginary closure, and the current hinge thickness data receiving unit 13 Receives the input of the current hinge thickness of the aerial closure, and the breakage time estimating unit 14 calculates the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture, the current hinge thickness, and the hinge reduction coefficient information of the aerial closure, Using the current date and time information, the life expectancy and the damage time until the hinge portion becomes a thickness such as breakage or the like are estimated, and the damage time display unit 15 displays the life expectancy and the damage time of the aerial closure. Thus, it is possible to estimate the deterioration of the imaginary closure. In other words, it is possible to accurately determine the imaginary closure to be replaced, greatly reduce the possibility of communication disconnection, and provide stable communication.

<Others>
In each embodiment, the case where the aerial closure is used has been described as an example. However, the invention is not limited to the aerial closure and can be applied to a plastic container having a hinge portion.

  Further, in each embodiment, the case where the overhead closure is deteriorated due to the irradiation of ultraviolet rays to the overhead closure and the opening / closing operation of the hinge portion has been described as an example.However, the phenomenon that the hinge thickness is reduced or the hinge reduction is increased with time is described. Applicable to action (eg, heat, etc.).

  Further, in each embodiment, the elongation at break of the hinge portion that has been broken from the collected product (aerial closure) collected in the past is determined, but the elongation at break of the hinge portion at the time of the break can be arbitrarily set by a maintenance person. . The thickness may be simply reduced or increased at the time of breaking, and may be used as a reference. For example, various estimation methods may be considered, such as setting the breaking thickness to 50% of the thickness before use.

  The estimation device 1 described in each embodiment can be realized by a computer including a CPU, a memory, an input / output interface, a communication interface, and the like. A program for causing a computer to function as the estimation device 1 and a storage medium for the program can also be created.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Estimation device 11 ... Initial hinge thickness data receiving part 12 ... Initial hinge thickness specifying part 13 ... Current hinge thickness data receiving part 14 ... Breakage time estimation part 15 ... Breakage time display part 16 ... Fictitious closure information storage part 17 ... Hinge thickness Coefficient information storage unit 18 Hinge thickness coefficient derivation unit 19 Measurement data reception unit 3 Fictitious closure information database

Claims (4)

In an estimation device that estimates the deterioration of a plastic container installed outdoors,
A specifying part for specifying a hinge thickness before use in the hinge part of the plastic container,
A receiving unit that receives an input of a hinge thickness in use in the hinge unit,
By using the hinge thickness before use, the hinge thickness during use, and the hinge thickness coefficient of the hinge thickness that decreases with the passage of use time in the hinge portion or the hinge thickness coefficient of the hinge thickness that increases. An estimating unit that calculates a life expectancy until the hinge portion has a thickness at which the hinge portion is damaged,
An estimating device comprising: The specifying unit specifies a hinge thickness at the time of manufacture from a model number of the plastic container,
The estimating unit includes:
The estimating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the life expectancy period is calculated using a hinge thickness at the time of manufacture as the hinge thickness before use. The specifying unit calculates the hinge thickness at the time of installation using the hinge thickness at the time of manufacture and the installation time of the plastic container specified from the model number of the plastic container,
The estimating unit includes:
The estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the remaining life period is calculated using the hinge thickness at the time of installation as the hinge thickness before use. The estimating unit includes:
The estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein, using the date and time information at the time of calculation, a breakage time at which the hinge portion is broken is calculated.

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