JP6615500B2 - Contract power determination support device, contract power determination support method, and contract power determination support program - Google Patents

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to a contract power determination support apparatus, a contract power determination support method, and a contract power determination support program.

  An administrator may determine contract power based on a peak value of received power of a group of devices provided in a factory or building. However, the administrator may not be able to determine the minimum contract power that the received power does not exceed.

Japanese Patent No. 5358317 Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2015-19579 JP 2000-333367 A JP 2010-220363 A

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is a contract power determination support device, a contract power determination support method, and a contract power determination support that can support an administrator to determine the minimum contract power that does not exceed received power. Is to provide a program.

  The contract power determination support apparatus according to the embodiment includes a first acquisition unit, a second acquisition unit, a creation unit, and a determination unit. The first acquisition unit acquires a first parameter. The second acquisition unit acquires a second parameter. The creation unit creates a received power model based on the first parameter. The determination unit determines a recommended value for the contract power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the second parameter.

The figure of the 1st example of a structure of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The flowchart which shows the 1st example of operation | movement of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The figure of the 2nd example of a structure of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The figure of the 1st example of the creation screen of a received power model. The figure of the 1st example of the display screen of the recommended value of contract electric power. The flowchart which shows the 2nd example of operation | movement of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The figure of the 2nd example of the creation screen of a received power model. The figure of the 2nd example of the display screen of the recommended value of contract electric power. The figure of the 3rd example of a structure of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The flowchart which shows the 3rd example of operation | movement of a contract electric power determination assistance apparatus. The figure of the 4th example of composition of contract power decision support equipment.

Hereinafter, a contract power determination support apparatus, a contract power determination support method, and a contract power determination support program of an embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings.
The contract power determination support device is a device that supports the determination of contract power. For example, the contract power determination support device supports the determination of contract power in a factory equipped with manufacturing equipment, other equipment, and a compressor. For example, the contract power determination support device may support determination of contract power of a building including a heat source device and lighting.

  For example, in a factory, the power consumption of manufacturing equipment or the like may be higher than the power consumption of a heat source machine or the like. For example, in a building, the power consumption of a heat source machine or the like may be larger than the power consumption of a manufacturing device or the like. The configuration and operation of the contract power determination support device are the same when supporting the determination of the contract power of the factory and when supporting the determination of the contract power of the building. Hereinafter, as an example, a case where the contract power determination support apparatus is an apparatus that supports determination of contract power in a factory will be described.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a diagram of a first example of the configuration of the contract power determination support device 1. In the first embodiment, the contract power determination support device 1 is referred to as “contract power determination support device 1a”. The contract power determination support apparatus 1a includes a first acquisition unit 11, a database 12, a creation unit 13, a storage unit 14, a second acquisition unit 15, a determination unit 16, and an output unit 17. Some or all of the first acquisition unit 11, the creation unit 13, the second acquisition unit 15, the determination unit 16, and the output unit 17 are stored by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), for example. This is a software function unit that functions by executing a program stored in the unit. Some or all of these functional units may be hardware functional units such as LSI (Large Scale Integration) and ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit).

  The first acquisition unit 11 acquires a parameter including an actual value (current value) (hereinafter referred to as “actual value parameter”). The actual value parameter (first parameter) is a parameter including an actual power value. The actual value parameter is, for example, a parameter including an actual value of power consumption (power consumption by device) for each device provided in the factory. When the actual value of power consumption for each device provided in the factory is unknown, the actual value parameter includes, for example, the actual value of the total power consumption of the device group provided in the factory (the received power of the entire factory). It may be a parameter. The equipment provided in the factory is, for example, a manufacturing equipment, a compressor, and a heat source machine.

  The actual value parameter may be a parameter including the actual value of the outside air condition data, for example. The outside air condition data is, for example, the actual value of the outside air temperature. The outside air condition data may be, for example, the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outdoor air, the actual value of the relative humidity of the outdoor air, or the actual value of the absolute humidity of the outdoor air. The first acquisition unit 11 communicates based on a predetermined communication standard. The communication standard is, for example, a BACnet (Building Automation and Control Network) standard.

  The database 12 includes, for example, a nonvolatile storage medium (non-temporary storage medium) such as a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, and an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). The database 12 may include, for example, a volatile storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a register. The database 12 stores, for example, an actual value parameter and time data in association with each other. As an example, the database 12 may store an actual value parameter including an actual value for the latest 13 months in order to make available an actual value parameter including an actual value for the most recent 12 months. Further, when there is room in the free capacity, the database 12 may store a performance value parameter including a longer-term performance value. The database 12 may store performance value parameters measured at a predetermined period. The predetermined period is, for example, a one-minute period or a one-second period.

  The creation unit 13 acquires the actual value parameter and the time data from the database 12. The preparation part 13 may acquire a performance value parameter and time data for every period or every season. The creation unit 13 creates a received power model based on the actual value parameter and the time data. The received power model is expressed by, for example, a mathematical expression. When the actual value is input as the parameter of the mathematical expression of the received power model, the output value (model value) of the received power model represents the predicted value of the past received power. That the predicted value of the past received power is close to the actual value of the received power indicates that the accuracy of the received power model is high. Further, when a predicted value is input as a parameter of a mathematical expression of the received power model, the output value of the received power model represents a predicted value of future received power.

  For example, the creation unit 13 creates a received power model by performing multiple regression analysis on the actual value parameter. The creation unit 13 classifies the received power of the entire factory into power consumption of manufacturing equipment, power consumption of a compressor, power consumption of a heat source machine, and power consumption of other equipment. The creation unit 13 performs multiple regression analysis on the actual value of each power consumption.

  For example, the explanatory variable of the received power model is at least one of the temperature of the outside air and the dew point temperature. The received power model is expressed by equation (1).

Here, _{E 1} represents the power consumption of the manufacturing equipment (kW). E ₂ represents the power consumption of the compressor (kW). E ₃ represents the power consumption of the heat source equipment (kW). E ₄ shows another power consumption of equipment (kW). E represents received power (kW). X ₁ represents outside air temperature (degrees Celsius). X ₂ represents outside air dew point temperature (Celsius). a ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of the manufacturing equipment. a ₁ and a ₂ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the power consumption of the manufacturing equipment. b ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of the compressor. b ₁ and b ₂ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the power consumption of the compressor. c ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of the heat source device. c ₁ , c ₂ , c ₃ , and c ₄ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the power consumption of the heat source unit. d ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of other devices. d ₁ and d ₂ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of power consumption of other devices.

  The creation unit 13 represents the equation (1) by multiple regression analysis when there is a quadratic correlation between the actual value of the power consumption of the heat source unit, the actual value of the outside air temperature, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outside air. Create a received power model. That is, the creation unit 13 performs constant regression and multiple regression of each power consumption by multiple regression analysis based on the actual value of power consumption for each device, the actual value of the temperature of outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of outside air. The analysis coefficient is determined.

  When the power consumption for each device provided in the factory is unknown, the creation unit 13 may create the received power model shown in Expression (2) by multiple regression analysis on the actual value of the received power of the entire factory. .

e ₁ represents a constant term of received power. e ₁ and e ₂ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the received power. The creation unit 13 creates a received power model shown in Expression (2) by multiple regression analysis when there is a quadratic correlation between the power consumption of the heat source device, the temperature of the outside air, and the dew point temperature. That is, the creation unit 13 determines the constant term and the multiple regression analysis coefficient of the received power by multiple regression analysis based on the received power, the temperature of the outside air, and the dew point temperature.

  Note that the creation unit 13 may create a received power model based on the result of performing neural network analysis on the actual value parameter. For the neural network analysis, an analysis method described in a reference document (“Neuro Fuzzy AI Handbook”, ISBN-13: 978-4274034466) may be used. In addition, the creation unit 13 may create a received power model based on a result of performing genetic algorithm analysis on the actual value parameter.

  The storage unit 14 includes, for example, a nonvolatile storage medium (non-temporary storage medium) such as a ROM, a flash memory, or an HDD. The storage unit 14 may include, for example, a volatile storage medium such as a RAM or a register. The storage unit 14 stores, for example, a program for causing the software function unit to function. The storage unit 14 stores, for example, a parameter including the maximum value (hereinafter referred to as “maximum value parameter”). The maximum value parameter (second parameter) may be stored in association with the time data. The maximum value parameter may be stored for each period or season, for example. For example, the storage unit 14 may store the maximum value parameter in the form of a data sheet.

  The second acquisition unit 15 acquires a maximum value parameter. For example, the second acquisition unit 15 acquires the maximum value parameter from the storage unit 14. The maximum value parameter is a parameter including the maximum value of power, for example. The maximum value parameter is a parameter including, for example, the maximum value of power consumption of the device. The maximum value parameter may be a parameter further including the maximum value of the outside air condition data. The maximum value of the outside air condition data is, for example, a predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air and a predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air.

  The determination unit 16 acquires data representing the received power model from the creation unit 13. The determination unit 16 acquires the maximum value parameter from the second acquisition unit 15. The determination unit 16 predicts the peak value of the received power of the factory in the future based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the maximum value parameter. The determination unit 16 determines a recommended value of contract power of the factory based on the peak value of the received power of the factory in the future.

  In order to prevent the received power from exceeding the contract power, the value of the minimum contract power (optimum contract power) that does not exceed the received power in the first embodiment is equal to the peak value of the received power. In Expressions (1) and (2), the received power model is a quadratic expression of the outside air temperature and the dew point temperature. When the maximum temperature and the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air are input to Equation (1) as parameters, the output value of the received power model shown in Equation (1) indicates the predicted value of the maximum value (peak value) of the received power. The same applies to equation (2).

  Therefore, the determination unit 16 recommends the contract power based on the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, the predicted value of the maximum dew point of the outside air, and the received power model in the target period for determining the recommended value of the contract power. The value can be determined. An example of the recommended value of the contract power is expressed by Expression (3).

_Er represents a recommended value (kW) of contract power. X _1max indicates the maximum temperature (Celsius) of the outside air. X _2max indicates the maximum dew point temperature (Celsius) of the outside air.

  The output unit 17 outputs the determined recommended value of contract power to the display screen of the display device. The display screen may include an operation unit such as a touch panel. The display screen may display various operation keys. The administrator may determine the recommended value of the contract power as the final contract power by operating an operation key displayed on the display screen. Note that the output unit 17 may output the determined recommended value of the contract power to a voice processing device including a speaker or the like.

  FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a first example of the operation of the contract power determination support apparatus 1a. The 1st acquisition part 11 acquires a track record value parameter (Step S101). The database 12 stores the actual value parameter in association with the time (step S102). The creation unit 13 creates a received power model by performing multiple regression analysis on the actual value parameter (step S103).

  The determination unit 16 acquires, from the second acquisition unit 15, the maximum value parameter in the target period for determining the recommended value of contract power (Step S104). The determination unit 16 predicts the peak value of the received power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the maximum value parameter. For example, the determination unit 16 determines the peak value of the received power as the recommended value of the contract power (Step S105). The output unit 17 outputs the determined recommended value of the contract power to a display device or the like (step S106).

As described above, the contract power determination support apparatus 1a according to the first embodiment includes the first acquisition unit 11, the second acquisition unit 15, the creation unit 13, and the determination unit 16. The first acquisition unit 11 acquires a performance value parameter (first parameter). The second acquisition unit 15 acquires a maximum value parameter (second parameter). The creation unit 13 creates a received power model based on the actual value parameter. The determination unit 16 determines a recommended value for the contract power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the maximum value parameter.
Thereby, the contract power determination support apparatus 1a of the first embodiment can support the administrator to determine the minimum contract power that the received power does not exceed.

  The contract power determination support apparatus 1a according to the first embodiment allows an administrator with little experience to determine the minimum contract power that does not exceed the received power in the factory. The contract power determination support apparatus 1a of the first embodiment can reduce the labor of the administrator.

(Second Embodiment)
The second embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the contract power determination support device 1 displays a graph such as the output value of the received power model. In the second embodiment, only differences from the first embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram of a second example of the configuration of the contract power determination support device 1. From the second embodiment to the fourth embodiment, the contract power determination support device 1 is referred to as a “contract power determination support device 1b”. The contract power determination support device 1b includes a first acquisition unit 11, a database 12, a creation unit 13, a storage unit 14, a second acquisition unit 15, a determination unit 16, an output unit 17, and an operation unit 18. And a display unit 19.

  The operation unit 18 (period setting operation unit) (margin setting operation unit) receives an operation by an administrator. The administrator can input information necessary for creating the received power model to the creation unit 13 by operating the operation unit 18. In the second embodiment, the information (explanatory variable) necessary for creating the received power model is a numerical value representing the period for which the received power model is created (hereinafter referred to as “received power model creation target period”). Data (period data) and instruction data indicating whether or not to determine a received power model. The administrator can input information necessary for determining the recommended value of contract power to the determination unit 16 via the second acquisition unit 15 by operating the operation unit 18. In the second embodiment, the information necessary to determine the recommended value of contract power is the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, and the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air.

  The creation unit 13 includes the actual value of the received power of the entire factory or the actual value of the power consumption for each device, the actual value of the temperature of the outside air, and the dew point temperature of the outside air in the period for which the received power model is a past period. The actual value is acquired from the database 12. The creation unit 13 receives the received power by multiple regression analysis based on the actual value of the received power of the entire factory or the actual value of the power consumption for each device, the actual value of the temperature of the outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outside air. Create a model.

  The determination unit 16 obtains, as information necessary for determining the recommended value of the contract power, the contract power margin value, the actual value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, and the actual value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air, as a second acquisition. Obtained from the unit 15. The determination unit 16 determines the recommended value of the contract power based on the received power model data, the margin value of the contract power, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, and the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air.

  The display unit 19 is a display device. The display unit 19 displays a graph of the actual value of the received power and a graph of the output value of the received power model in the received power model creation target period on the same display screen.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram of a first example of a received power model creation screen. The display unit 19 may display the operation keys 100 and the operation keys 101. The operation key 100 is an operation key for the administrator to set the reception power model creation target period. The operation key 101 is an operation key for the administrator to instruct the determination of the received power model. The administrator can notify the creation unit 13 of the received power model creation target period, which is a past period, by operating the operation key 100.

  The administrator determines the difference between the graph of the output value of the received power model based on the actual values of the outside air temperature and the dew point temperature and the graph of the actual value of the received power for the period for which the received power model is created in the past period. By confirming, the accuracy of the received power model can be confirmed. The administrator can notify the creation unit 13 of the determination of the received power model by operating the operation key 100. When the accuracy of the received power model is not good, the administrator can notify the creating unit 13 again of the received power model creation target period, which is a past period, by operating the operation key 100. The administrator can confirm the accuracy of the received power model recreated by the creating unit 13 by checking the difference between the graph of the output value of the received power model and the graph of the actual value of the received power.

  The display unit 19 displays a recommended value of future contract power. The display unit 19 may display a graph of the actual value of the received power and a graph of the outside air condition together with a recommended value of the future contract power during the received power model creation target period.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram of a first example of a display screen for the recommended value of contract power. The display unit 19 displays a graph of a received power actual value, a graph of a maximum received power, a graph of the outside air temperature, a graph of the dew point temperature of the outside air, and a recommended value of the contract power during the received power model creation target period. On the display screen. The display unit 19 displays the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the highest outdoor temperature, and the predicted value of the highest outdoor dew point on the display screen of the recommended value of the contracted power. The display unit 19 displays the recommended value of the contract power determined by the determination unit 16 and the output value (predicted value) of the received power model on the display screen of the recommended value of contract power.

  The administrator can confirm the accuracy of the recommended value of the contract power by checking a graph or the like displayed on the display screen of the recommended value of the contract power. For example, when the administrator wants to change the margin value of the contract power, the administrator can input the value “σ” (kW) in the column for setting the margin value of the contract power. The creation unit 13 sets the value input in the contract power margin value setting field as the contract power margin value used to create the received power model. The determination unit 16 determines the recommended value of contract power based on, for example, Expression (4).

In Equation (4), σ represents a margin value (kW) of contract power. As shown in the equation (4), the recommended value _Er of the contract power is an output value of the received power model based on the received power prediction model, the maximum outside air temperature X _1max, and the maximum outside dew point temperature X _2max . This is the result of adding the contract power margin σ to the predicted value. That is, the recommended value _Er of the contract power is a result of adding the contract power margin value σ to the predicted value of the maximum value (peak value) of the received power.

  The margin value of the contract power may be an input value determined by an administrator who has operated the operation unit 18 or may be a value determined by the determination unit 16 based on the standard deviation. The standard deviation is a standard deviation of a residual between the actual value of the received power shown in FIG. 4 and the output value of the received power model.

  For example, when the average value μ of the residual of the actual value of the received power and the output value of the received power model is 0 kW and the standard deviation is 100 kW, the probability that the residual (the difference of the received power) is within 100 kW is About 68%. In this case, if the margin value of the contract power is set to a value that is one time the standard deviation, the margin value σ of the contract power is 100 kW according to the equation (4). Similarly, if the contract power margin value is twice the standard deviation, the contract power margin value σ is 200 kW according to Equation (4). As described above, the determination unit 16 can determine the margin value of the contract power by performing the statistical analysis based on the standard deviation of the residual.

  FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a second example of the operation of the contract power determination support apparatus 1. The 1st acquisition part 11 acquires a track record value parameter (Step S201). The database 12 stores the actual value parameter in association with the time (step S202). The creation unit 13 acquires a received power model creation target period, which is a past period, from the operation unit 18 (step S203). The creation unit 13 creates a received power model by performing multiple regression analysis on the actual value parameter of the received power model creation target period (step S204).

  The display unit 19 displays the same graph of the actual value of the received power in the received power model creation period and the graph of the output value of the received power model based on the outside air temperature and the dew point temperature in the received power model creation period. It is displayed on the screen (step S205). The creation unit 13 determines whether or not the operation key 100 of the operation unit 18 has been operated, that is, whether or not the administrator has determined the received power model (step S206). If the administrator has not determined the received power model (step S206: NO), the creation unit 13 reacquires the received power model creation target period, which is a past period, from the operation unit 18 (step S207). The creation unit 13 returns the process to step S204.

  When the administrator determines the received power model (step S206: YES), the determination unit 16 secondly acquires the maximum value parameter and the contract power margin value for the target period for determining the recommended value of the contract power. Obtained from the unit 15 (step S208). The determination unit 16 predicts the peak value of the received power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the contract power margin value and the maximum value parameter. For example, the determination unit 16 determines the peak value of the received power as the recommended value of the contract power (Step S209). The output unit 17 outputs the determined recommended value of the contract power to a display device or the like (step S210).

As described above, the contract power determination support apparatus 1b according to the second embodiment further includes the operation unit 18 that receives an operation of inputting a margin value. The determination unit 16 determines a recommended value for the contract power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the margin value and the maximum value parameter.
Thereby, the contract power determination support apparatus 1b of the second embodiment can assist the administrator in determining the minimum contract power that the received power does not exceed.

  The contract power determination support device 1b of the second embodiment can create a received power model based on the actual value in the received power model creation target period determined by the administrator. The contract power determination support device 1b of the second embodiment can make the administrator confirm the received power model.

  When there is a problem with the received power model, the administrator can update the received power model creation target period. The contract power determination support apparatus 1b of the second embodiment can display the recommended value of contract power in consideration of the margin value of contract power. The contract power determination support apparatus 1b of the second embodiment can display a recommended value of contract power in consideration of the manager's wishes.

(Third embodiment)
The third embodiment is different from the second embodiment in that the creation unit 13 performs a process for removing an outlier on the actual value of the received power. In the third embodiment, only differences from the second embodiment will be described.

  The operation unit 18 receives an operation by an administrator. The administrator can input information necessary for creating the received power model to the creation unit 13 by operating the operation unit 18. In the third embodiment, the information (explanatory variable) necessary for creating the received power model includes numerical data representing the received power model creation target period, instruction data indicating whether to determine the received power model, and The threshold for applying the process of removing outliers to the actual value of the received power (hereinafter referred to as “data removal threshold”). The administrator can input information necessary for determining the recommended value of contract power to the determination unit 16 via the second acquisition unit 15 by operating the operation unit 18. In the third embodiment, the information necessary for determining the recommended value of the contract power is the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, and the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air.

  The actual value of the received power may include an outlier when the whole or a part of the factory has a power failure. When the actual value of the received power includes an outlier, the accuracy of the received power model may be reduced. For this reason, the preparation part 13 needs to remove an outlier from the actual value of received power.

  For example, the creation unit 13 removes outliers based on the standard deviation. For example, the creation unit 13 determines a value of received power whose residual with the average value of received power in the received power model creation target period is twice or more the standard deviation as an outlier of the actual value of received power. In this case, among the actual values of the received power, the actual value of the received power of about 5% having a large residual with the average value is an outlier. The data removal threshold is an actual value of received power whose residual with the average value of received power is less than twice the standard deviation.

  The creation unit 13 includes the actual value of the received power or the actual value of the power consumption for each device, the actual value of the temperature of the outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outside air in the received power model creation target period that is a past period. Is obtained from the database 12. The creation unit 13 performs multiple regression analysis based on the actual value of the received power from which the outlier has been removed or the actual value of the power consumption for each device, the actual value of the temperature of the outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outside air. To create a received power model.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram of a second example of a received power model creation screen. The display unit 19 may display the operation key 100, the operation key 101, and the operation key 102. The operation key 102 is an operation key for the administrator to instruct the determination of the data removal threshold. The display unit 19 displays the data removal threshold on the screen for creating a received power model. The display unit 19 may display a graph of the data removal threshold value superimposed on the graph of the actual value of the received power on the screen for creating the received power model. The administrator can visually recognize the graph of the data removal threshold value. For example, when the administrator wants to change the data removal threshold, the administrator can input the value “XXX” (kW) in the column for setting the data removal threshold. The creation unit 13 sets the value input in the data removal threshold setting field as the data removal threshold used for creating the received power model.

  The creation unit 13 may determine the data removal threshold based on the median and the median absolute deviation. The median value of the actual values of all received power in the received power model creation target period is expressed by Expression (5). Further, the median absolute deviation of the actual values of all received power during the received power model creation target period is expressed by Expression (6).

N shown in Expression (5) and Expression (6) indicates the number of actual values (data) of received power in the received power model creation target period. X _mad indicates a data removal threshold value. Note that the creation unit 13 may determine the data removal threshold based on other than the standard deviation, median, or median absolute deviation.

  As described above, the contract power determination support device 1b according to the third embodiment removes outliers from the received power data in the received power model creation target period when creating the received power model. Thereby, the contract power determination support apparatus 1b of 3rd Embodiment can improve the precision of the received power model created by multiple regression analysis. The administrator can easily remove outliers from the received power data in the received power model creation target period by operating the operation unit 18.

(Fourth embodiment)
The fourth embodiment is different from the second embodiment in that the recommended value of the contract power is determined based on the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment. In the fourth embodiment, only differences from the second embodiment will be described.

  The operation unit 18 receives an operation by an administrator. The administrator can input information necessary for creating the received power model to the creation unit 13 by operating the operation unit 18. In the fourth embodiment, the information (explanatory variable) necessary for creating the received power model includes numerical data representing the received power model creation target period, instruction data indicating whether to determine the received power model, and The actual value of power consumption for each manufacturing device. The actual value of power consumption for each manufacturing device may be classified for each more detailed type of device.

  Information (explanatory variables) necessary to create the received power model includes numerical data representing the period for which the received power model is to be created, instruction data indicating whether to determine the received power model, and the actual power consumption of the compressor It may be a value. In addition, the information (explanatory variable) necessary for creating the received power model includes numerical data representing the received power model creation target period, instruction data indicating whether or not to determine the received power model, and each manufacturing device. It may be the actual value of power consumption and the actual value of compressor power consumption.

  The administrator can input information necessary for determining the recommended value of contract power to the determination unit 16 via the second acquisition unit 15 by operating the operation unit 18. In the fourth embodiment, information necessary for determining the recommended value of contract power includes the margin value of contract power, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air, and the manufacturing equipment. The maximum power consumption value.

  The creation unit 13 obtains the actual power consumption value, the actual temperature value of the outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outside air from the database 12 in the received power model creation target period, which is a past period. get. The creation unit 13 acquires the maximum power consumption value of the manufacturing device from the operation unit 18. The creation unit 13 creates a received power model by multiple regression analysis based on the actual temperature value of the outside air, the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outdoor air, and the actual value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment. The actual value of the power consumption of the manufacturing equipment varies greatly depending on the operation plan of the manufacturing apparatus in the factory. For this reason, the preparation part 13 produces the received power model which makes the actual value of the power consumption for every manufacturing apparatus an explanatory variable. The creation unit 13 may create a received power model using the actual value of the received power of the manufacturing equipment in the entire factory as an explanatory variable. The received power model of the fourth embodiment is expressed by Expression (7).

X ₃ represents the power consumption of the manufacturing equipment (kW). b ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of the compressor. b ₁ , b ₂ , and b ₃ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the power consumption of the compressor. c ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of the heat source device. c ₀ , c ₁ , c ₂ , c ₃ , c ₄ , and c ₅ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of the power consumption of the heat source unit. d ₀ represents a constant term of power consumption of other devices. d ₁ , d ₂ , and d ₃ indicate multiple regression analysis coefficients of power consumption of other devices.

  The creation unit 13 calculates the constant term and the multiple regression analysis coefficient shown in Equation (7) based on the actual power consumption value, the actual temperature value of the outside air, and the actual value of the dew point temperature of the outdoor air. Determined by multiple regression analysis.

  The determination unit 16 includes, as information necessary for determining the recommended value of the contract power, a contract power margin value, a predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, a predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air, and the maximum value of the manufacturing equipment. The predicted value of power consumption is acquired from the operation unit 18 via the second acquisition unit 15.

  The determination unit 16 obtains the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air, and the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment from the contract power determination support device 1c. You may acquire from the outside. For example, the determination unit 16 may acquire a predicted value of the maximum outside air temperature from an administrative institution via the Internet. For example, the determination unit 16 may acquire a predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment from an apparatus that creates an operation plan for the manufacturing equipment. The determination unit 16 can reduce the labor of the manager by acquiring information from outside the contract power determination support device 1c.

  The determination unit 16 is based on the received power model data, the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the maximum temperature of the outside air, the predicted value of the maximum dew point temperature of the outside air, and the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment. Determine the recommended value for the contract power. The determination unit 16 can accurately estimate the contract power based on the received power model using the actual value of the received power of the manufacturing equipment as an explanatory variable.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram of a second example of the recommended contract power display screen. The display unit 19 displays a graph of a received power actual value, a graph of a maximum received power, a graph of the outside air temperature, a graph of the dew point temperature of the outside air, and a recommended value of the contract power during the received power model creation target period. On the display screen. The display unit 19 displays on the display screen of the recommended value of the contract power, the contract power margin value, the predicted value of the highest outdoor temperature, the predicted value of the highest outdoor dew point, and the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing apparatus. Is displayed. The display unit 19 displays the recommended value of the contract power determined by the determination unit 16 and the output value (predicted value) of the received power model on the display screen of the recommended value of contract power.

  The administrator can confirm the accuracy of the recommended value of the contract power by checking a graph or the like displayed on the display screen of the recommended value of the contract power. For example, when the administrator wants to change the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing apparatus, the administrator can input the value “ZZZ” (kW) in the field for setting the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing apparatus. The creation unit 13 sets the value input in the setting field of the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing apparatus as the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing apparatus used for generating the received power model.

The determination unit 16 determines the recommended value of contract power based on, for example, Expression (8). In Equation (8), X _3max indicates the maximum power consumption (kW) of the manufacturing equipment.

As described above, the contract power determination support apparatus 1b according to the fourth embodiment determines the recommended value of the contract power based on the predicted value of the maximum power consumption of the manufacturing equipment.
Thereby, the contract power determination support apparatus 1b of the fourth embodiment can accurately estimate the contract power based on the received power model using the actual value of the received power of the manufacturing equipment as an explanatory variable. The contract power determination support device 1b of the fourth embodiment can reduce the labor of the manager by acquiring information from outside the contract power determination support device 1c.

(Fifth embodiment)
The fifth embodiment is different from the second embodiment in that the contract power determination support apparatus 1 monitors the actual value of the received power. In the fifth embodiment, only differences from the second embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram of a third example of the configuration of the contract power determination support device 1. In the fifth embodiment, the contract power determination support device 1 is referred to as a “contract power determination support device 1c”. The contract power determination support device 1c includes a first acquisition unit 11, a database 12, a creation unit 13, a storage unit 14, a second acquisition unit 15, a determination unit 16, an output unit 17, and an operation unit 18. The display unit 19 and the error monitoring unit 20 are provided. Some or all of the first acquisition unit 11, the creation unit 13, the second acquisition unit 15, the determination unit 16, the output unit 17, and the error monitoring unit 20 are, for example, a processor such as a CPU, A software function unit that functions by executing a program stored in the storage unit. Some or all of these functional units may be hardware functional units such as an LSI or an ASIC.

  The creation unit 13 predicts the received power of the entire factory based on the received power model. The creation unit 13 may predict the power consumption for each device provided in the factory based on the received power model based on the received power model.

  The error monitoring unit 20 acquires the actual value of the received power from the first acquisition unit 11. The error monitoring unit 20 acquires the output value of the received power model, that is, the predicted value of the received power from the determining unit 16. The error monitoring unit 20 monitors the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power. For example, the error monitoring unit 20 determines whether or not the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than a predetermined error threshold.

  If the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold, the error monitoring unit 20 determines that the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold. The alarm to represent is transmitted to the output unit 17 and the creation unit 13. The error threshold is predetermined by the administrator. The error threshold is, for example, about several percent of the actual value of received power. The error threshold may be determined based on, for example, standard deviation, median value, or median absolute deviation.

  The error monitoring unit 20 may monitor the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power at a predetermined time. For example, the error monitoring unit 20 may monitor the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power every day at 18:00. The error monitoring unit 20 can check the accuracy of the received power model based on the latest actual value of the received power. For example, the error monitoring unit 20 may monitor the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power based on the month or season in the calendar.

  When the output unit 17 acquires an alarm indicating that the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold, the output unit 17 notifies the administrator of the alarm.

  The creation unit 13 updates the received power model when acquiring an alarm indicating that the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold. That is, the creation unit 13 updates the received power model when the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold.

  The creation unit 13 updates the received power model by updating the received power model creation target period while maintaining the length (for example, 10 days) of the received power model creation target period acquired from the operation unit 18. Also good. For example, when the received power model creation target period acquired from the operation unit 18 is 10 days from 30 days to 21 days before the reference date, the creation unit 13 sets the received power model creation target period to 10 days before the reference date. It may be updated for 10 days from 1 day before.

  FIG. 10 is a flowchart illustrating a third example of the operation of the contract power determination support apparatus 1. The 1st acquisition part 11 acquires a track record value parameter (Step S301). The database 12 stores the actual value parameter in association with the time (step S302). The creation unit 13 acquires a received power model creation target period, which is a past period, from the operation unit 18 (step S303). The creation unit 13 creates a received power model by performing multiple regression analysis on the actual value parameter of the received power model creation target period (step S304).

  The display unit 19 displays the same graph of the actual value of the received power in the received power model creation period and the graph of the output value of the received power model based on the outside air temperature and the dew point temperature in the received power model creation period. It is displayed on the screen (step S305). The creation unit 13 determines whether or not the operation key 100 of the operation unit 18 has been operated, that is, whether or not the administrator has determined the received power model (step S306). When the administrator has not determined the received power model (step S306: NO), the creation unit 13 reacquires the received power model creation target period, which is a past period, from the operation unit 18 (step S307). The creation unit 13 returns the process to step S304.

  When the administrator determines the received power model (step S306: YES), the error monitoring unit 20 determines whether or not the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than an error threshold ( Step S308). When the difference is greater than or equal to the error threshold (step S308: YES), the creation unit 13 updates the received power model (step S309). The creation unit 13 returns the process to step S304.

  When the difference is less than the error threshold (step S308: NO), the determination unit 16 obtains the maximum value parameter and the contract power margin value in the target period for determining the recommended value of the contract power, and the second acquisition unit 15. (Step S310). The determination unit 16 predicts the peak value of the received power based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the maximum value parameter. For example, the determination unit 16 determines the peak value of the received power as the recommended value of the contract power (Step S311). The output unit 17 outputs the determined recommended value of contract power to a display device or the like (step S312).

As described above, the contract power determination support apparatus 1c according to the fifth embodiment further includes the error monitoring unit 20. The error monitoring unit 20 monitors the difference between the output value of the received power model and the actual value of the received power. When the difference between the output value of the received power model and the actual value of the received power is equal to or greater than the threshold, the creation unit 13 receives the power based on the actual value parameter (first parameter) associated with the updated period data. Update the power model.
Thereby, the contract power determination support apparatus 1c of the fifth embodiment can notify the administrator of an alarm when the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold.

  When the difference between the actual value of received power and the predicted value of received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold, the contract power determination support device 1c of the fifth embodiment can update the received power model creation target period. The contract power determination support apparatus 1c of the fifth embodiment can update the received power model when the difference between the actual value of the received power and the predicted value of the received power is equal to or greater than the error threshold.

(Sixth embodiment)
The sixth embodiment is different from the second embodiment in that the contract power determination support apparatus 1 monitors the actual value of received power and the recommended value of contract power. In the sixth embodiment, only differences from the second embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram of a fourth example of the configuration of the contract power determination support device 1. In the sixth embodiment, the contract power determination support device 1 is referred to as a “contract power determination support device 1d”. The contract power determination support device 1d includes a first acquisition unit 11, a database 12, a creation unit 13, a storage unit 14, a second acquisition unit 15, a determination unit 16, an output unit 17, and an operation unit 18. The display unit 19 and the power monitoring unit 21 are provided. Some or all of the first acquisition unit 11, the creation unit 13, the second acquisition unit 15, the determination unit 16, the output unit 17, and the power monitoring unit 21 are, for example, a processor such as a CPU, A software function unit that functions by executing a program stored in the storage unit. Some or all of these functional units may be hardware functional units such as an LSI or an ASIC.

  The power monitoring unit 21 acquires the actual value of the received power from the first acquisition unit 11. The power monitoring unit 21 acquires the recommended value of contract power from the determination unit 16. The power monitoring unit 21 monitors the actual value of received power and the recommended value of contract power. For example, the power monitoring unit 21 determines whether or not the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power.

  When the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power, the power monitoring unit 21 generates an alarm indicating that the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power. 13 to send. When the actual value of the received power exceeds 90% or the like of the recommended value of the contract power, the power monitoring unit 21 indicates that the actual value of the received power exceeds 90% or the like of the recommended value of the contract power. May be transmitted to the output unit 17 and the creation unit 13. The power monitoring unit 21 may monitor the actual value of the received power at a predetermined time. For example, the power monitoring unit 21 may monitor the actual value of the received power at a cycle of 30 minutes or 1 hour.

  When the output unit 17 acquires an alarm indicating that the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power, the output unit 17 notifies the administrator of the alarm. When the output unit 17 acquires an alarm indicating that the actual value of received power exceeds 90% of the recommended value of contract power, the output unit 17 may notify the administrator of the alarm.

As described above, the contract power determination support apparatus 1d according to the sixth embodiment further includes the power monitoring unit 21. The power monitoring unit 21 monitors the actual value of the received power, and outputs an alarm when the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power.
Accordingly, the contract power determination support apparatus 1d according to the sixth embodiment is configured so that the contract power determination support apparatus 1d according to the sixth embodiment generates an alarm indicating that the actual value of the received power exceeds the recommended value of the contract power. Can be notified to the administrator.

  In the contract power determination support device 1d of the sixth embodiment, when the actual value of the received power exceeds 90% of the recommended value of the contract power, the actual value of the received power is 90% of the recommended value of the contract power, etc. The administrator can be notified of an alarm indicating that the number is exceeded. When the actual value of received power exceeds 90% of the recommended value of contract power, the contract power determination support apparatus 1d of the sixth embodiment does not allow the actual value of received power to exceed the recommended value of contract power. It is possible to make the administrator take measures against this.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, a creation unit that creates a received power model based on the first parameter and a recommended value of contract power determined based on the output value of the received power model corresponding to the second parameter By having a determination unit that performs this, it is possible to assist the administrator in determining the minimum contract power that the received power does not exceed.

  As mentioned above, although some embodiment of this invention was described, these embodiment is shown as an example and is not intending limiting the range of invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1a ... Contract power determination support apparatus, 1b ... Contract power determination support apparatus, 1c ... Contract power determination support apparatus, 1d ... Contract power determination support apparatus, 11 ... 1st acquisition part, 12 ... Database, 13 ... Creation part, 14 ... Storage unit 15 ... second acquisition unit 16 ... determination unit 17 ... output unit 18 ... operation unit 19 ... display unit 20 ... error monitoring unit 21 ... power monitoring unit 100 ... operation key 101 ... operation Key, 102 ... operation keys

Claims (9)

A first acquisition unit that acquires an actual value parameter that is a parameter including an actual value of power consumption of a device provided in a predetermined place and an actual value of the temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, or absolute humidity of the outside air in the predetermined place When,
A second acquisition unit for acquiring the maximum value parameter is a parameter containing the maximum value and the ambient air temperature of the power consumption, the dew point temperature, the maximum value of the relative humidity or absolute humidity,
A creation unit for creating a received power model based on the actual value parameter;
A determining unit that determines a recommended value of contract power based on an output value of the received power model according to the maximum value parameter;
A period setting operation section for accepting an operation for inputting period data;
An error monitoring unit that monitors the difference between the output value of the received power model and the actual value of the received power ;
The creation unit creates the received power model based on the actual value parameter in the period represented by the period data, and when the difference is greater than or equal to a threshold, the length of the period represented by the period data is maintained. Updating period data and updating the received power model based on the actual value parameter associated with the updated period data;
Contract power decision support device.   The contract power determination support apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the creation unit creates the received power model based on a result of performing multiple regression analysis on the actual value parameter.   The contract power determination support apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the creation unit creates the received power model based on a result of performing neural network analysis or genetic algorithm analysis on the actual value parameter. A margin setting operation section for receiving an operation for inputting a margin value;
The contract power determination support apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the determination unit determines a recommended value of the contract power based on an output value of the received power model corresponding to the margin value and the maximum value parameter.   The contract power determination support device according to claim 1, wherein the creation unit creates a received power model based on the actual value parameter subjected to the process of removing outliers. The contract power determination support apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: a power monitoring unit that monitors an actual value of received power and outputs an alarm when the actual value of the received power exceeds a recommended value of the contract power. . The contract power determination support apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: an output unit that outputs the determined recommended value of the contract power. A contract power determination support method in a contract power determination support device,
Obtaining an actual value parameter, which is a parameter including an actual value of power consumption of a device provided in a predetermined place and an actual value of the temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity or absolute humidity of the outside air in the predetermined place;
Obtaining a maximum value parameter that is a parameter including the maximum value of the power consumption and the maximum value of the temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity or absolute humidity of the outside air; and
Creating a received power model based on the actual value parameter;
Determining a recommended value of contract power based on an output value of the received power model according to the maximum value parameter;
Receiving an operation for inputting period data;
Look including the step of monitoring the difference between the actual value of the output value and the reception power of the received power model,
In the creating step, the received power model is created based on the actual value parameter in the period represented by the period data, and when the difference is equal to or greater than a threshold, the length of the period represented by the period data is maintained. Updating the period data and updating the received power model based on the actual value parameter associated with the updated period data;
Contract power decision support method. On the computer,
A step of acquiring the actual value parameter is a parameter containing the actual value of the power consumption of a device provided in the predetermined location and the outside air temperature of the predetermined location, the dew point temperature, the actual value of the relative humidity or absolute humidity,
Obtaining a maximum value parameter that is a parameter including the maximum value of the power consumption and the maximum value of the temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity or absolute humidity of the outside air;
A procedure for creating a received power model based on the actual value parameter;
Determining a recommended value of contract power based on an output value of the received power model according to the maximum value parameter;
A procedure for accepting an operation to input period data;
A step of monitoring the difference between the output value of the received power model and the actual value of the received power ;
In the creating procedure, the received power model is created based on the actual value parameter in the period represented by the period data, and when the difference is equal to or greater than a threshold value, the length of the period represented by the period data is maintained. Updating the period data and updating the received power model based on the actual value parameter associated with the updated period data;
Contract power decision support program.

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