JP6543541B2 - Power demand estimation device and power demand estimation method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a power demand estimation device and a power demand estimation method.

  DESCRIPTION OF RELATED ART Conventionally, what is shown in patent document 1 is known as an electric power demand estimation apparatus which estimates the total electric power demand of several households. The power demand estimation apparatus acquires in advance household attributes defined by conditions such as the number of households of households to which power is supplied, family structure, housing type, etc., and estimates the power demand based on information on the household attributes. Was.

JP 2005-45899 A

  However, even if the household attributes are the same, the power demand may differ greatly depending on each household, and it may be difficult to accurately estimate the power demand. Moreover, in order to improve the accuracy of the power demand, there is a case where it is difficult to obtain information from each household when the power demand is estimated by dividing it into more detailed household attributes. Therefore, a power demand estimation device capable of easily estimating the power demand has been required.

  Then, this invention aims at providing the electric power demand estimation apparatus which can estimate electric power demand easily, and the electric power demand estimation method.

  The power demand estimation apparatus according to the present invention is a power demand estimation apparatus for estimating the total power demand of a plurality of households, and classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group. A group classification unit, a first household attribute classification unit that classifies sample household groups into a plurality of household attributes based on predetermined attribute conditions, and household attributes classified by the first household attribute classification unit Group ratio information acquisition unit that acquires the group ratio information indicating the ratio occupied by groups, and target household groups to be estimated targets of electric power demand are divided into multiple household attributes based on the same predetermined attribute conditions as sample household groups The ratio of each group for each household attribute classified by the second household attribute classification unit based on the second household attribute classification unit and the group ratio information Estimating comprises a group ratio estimating unit, based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimating unit, and the power demand estimating unit that estimates a total power demand by the subject households group, a.

  In the power demand estimation apparatus according to the present invention, the group classification unit classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group. The first household attribute classification unit classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition. The group ratio information acquisition unit acquires group ratio information indicating the ratio occupied by each group classified by the group classification unit for each household attribute classified by the first household attribute division unit in this manner. Based on such group ratio information, for each household attribute that classifies the sample household group, it is necessary to grasp in which household attribute the rate at which the group consuming the power is present and how much ratio exists. Can. Here, the present inventors occupy the ratio information of each group in the household attribute classified in the sample household group, and each group in the household attribute classified in the target household group to be estimated. It has been found that there is a correlation between the proportions. Therefore, the second household attribute classification unit classifies the target household group to be estimated into a plurality of household attributes based on the same attribute condition as the sample household group. The group ratio estimation unit estimates, based on the group ratio information, the ratio occupied by each group for each household attribute classified by the second household attribute classification unit. As a result, for each household attribute that divides the target household group, it is possible to estimate what proportion of a group that consumes power with which tendency exists in the household attribute. Therefore, the power demand estimation unit can estimate the total power demand by the target household group based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimation unit. Even if household attributes are classified based on information that can be easily obtained as attribute conditions by the above processing, they are classified into groups based on the tendency of power consumption, and estimation is performed in consideration of the group ratio in each household attribute. The power demand can be estimated by That is, the estimation accuracy can be easily improved as compared to the case where the estimation accuracy is to be improved by making the attribute condition too detailed. Thus, the power demand can be easily estimated.

  Here, the present inventors set the ratio of each group in the household attributes divided in the sample household group as the ratio of each group in the household attributes divided in the target household group (data It has been found that it is possible to use as it is without the need for particularly adjusting the Therefore, in the power demand estimation apparatus according to the present invention, the group proportion estimation unit may estimate that the proportion occupied by each group is the same in the same household attribute between the target household group and the sample household group. By this, since the group ratio in the group ratio information based on the sample household group can be used as it is by the target household group, the processing load of the group ratio estimation unit can be reduced.

  In the power demand estimation apparatus according to the present invention, the group classification unit acquires information of power consumption within a predetermined period of a group of sample households, divides the predetermined period into a plurality of periods, and performs each period. The amount of power consumption may be compared with a predetermined threshold value, and the tendency of the amount of power consumption may be grasped based on the comparison results at a plurality of times. Thus, the group classification unit can easily classify the group by the process of comparing the power consumption with the threshold at each time.

  The power demand estimation method according to the present invention is a power demand estimation method for estimating the total power demand of a plurality of households, and classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group. The group classification process, the first household attribute classification process which classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition, and the household attributes classified according to the first household attribute classification process Group ratio information acquisition process that acquires the group ratio information that shows the ratio occupied by the group, and target household group that is the estimation target of electric power demand is divided into multiple household attributes based on the same predetermined attribute condition as sample household group Each group for each household attribute classified by the second household attribute classification process based on the second household attribute classification process and the group ratio information Estimating the proportion, comprising a group ratio estimating step, based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimating step, the power demand estimating step of estimating the total power demand by the subject households group, a.

  According to the power demand estimation method of the present invention, it is possible to obtain the same operation and effect as the power demand estimation device described above.

  According to the present invention, the power demand can be easily estimated.

It is a figure which shows the block configuration of the electric power demand estimation apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of the electric power demand estimation method which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows that a group classification | category part classify | categorizes a sample household group into a group. It is a graph which shows an example of the procedure at the time of a group classification | category part classifying a sample household group into a group. It is a graph which shows an example of the group ratio information which a group ratio information acquisition part acquires. It is a graph which shows an example of the household attribute of an object household group, and the group ratio of each household attribute. It is a graph which shows an example of a power demand estimate.

  Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the drawings, the same or corresponding parts are denoted by the same reference numerals and redundant description will be omitted.

  The power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention is an apparatus for estimating the total power demand of a plurality of households. The power demand estimation apparatus 100 estimates the power demand of a large-scale group of households from the trend of household attributes and power consumption in a small-scale sample family group. As shown in FIG. 1, the power demand estimation apparatus 100 uses the database creation unit 1 for creating a database based on the information acquired from the sample household group and the database created by the database creation unit 1. An estimation unit 2 that estimates the power demand and a storage unit 3 that stores various information are provided. The power demand estimation apparatus 100 physically includes one or more central processing units (CPUs), a random access memory (RAM) as a main storage device and a read only memory (ROM), and a keyboard and a mouse as input devices. And the like, an output device such as a display, and an auxiliary storage device such as a hard disk drive and a semiconductor memory. The database creating unit 1 may be physically configured as one device or may be configured by a plurality of devices operating in cooperation.

  The storage unit 3 includes information on sample household groups required to create a database by the database creation unit 1, the database created by the database creation unit 1, and information on target household groups for which power demand is to be estimated. It can be stored at least. The storage unit 3 can store at least power consumption in a predetermined period of each household and attribute information of each household as the information on the sample household group. The power consumption is, for example, monthly power consumption in the past several months or several years. However, the period of the power consumption to be acquired is not particularly limited. Also, instead of the monthly power consumption, it may be a weekly power consumption, a daily power consumption, or the like. In the present embodiment, the following description will be made by taking “monthly power consumption” as an example, but the present invention is not limited to this. The attribute information of each household includes, for example, the number of households, the type of residence (household or apartment complex, etc.), residence, household income, contract capacity, and the like. In the power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, the number of types of required attribute information may be smaller than that of the conventional power demand estimation apparatus, and only information that can be easily obtained may be used. The storage unit 3 can store at least attribute information of each household as the information on the target household group. As attribute information of the target household group, the same kind of attribute information as the sample household group is stored.

  The database creation unit 1 includes a group classification unit 4, a household attribute classification unit 5, and a group ratio information acquisition unit 6. Further, the estimation unit 2 includes a household attribute classification unit 7, a group ratio estimation unit 8, and a power demand estimation unit 9.

  The group classification unit 4 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group. The group classification unit 4 classifies sample household groups into a plurality of groups, for example, regarding the tendency of timing of consuming power. The group classification unit 4 acquires information of power consumption within a predetermined period of the sample household group. The group classification unit 4 divides a predetermined period into a plurality of times. The group classification unit 4 compares the amount of power consumption in each period with a predetermined threshold, and grasps the tendency of the amount of power consumption based on the comparison result in each of a plurality of periods.

  In the present embodiment, based on the monthly power consumption of the sample household group, by grasping the usage status of each season, the groups are classified into groups based on which season the power consumption is increased. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 4, the group classification unit 4 acquires, from the storage unit 3, data of monthly power consumption for at least one year (predetermined period) in each household of the sample household group. The acquisition period may be one year or more and is not particularly limited. As shown in FIG. 4A, the group classification unit 4 normalizes the numerical value of the monthly power consumption of the data (dividing each value by the average value of the whole) and “moon” for the month, Divided into "summer", "autumn" and "winter" (multiple times).

  The group classification | category part 4 produces a graph as shown in FIG.4 (b) by calculating the average value of monthly power consumption for each season. In the graph of FIG. 4 (b), the season is divided into three categories of "spring + autumn", "winter", and "summer". However, spring and autumn may be separated. Also, it is not necessary to divide the seasons into four seasons, and it is possible to classify the groups according to the monthly power consumption itself. Moreover, the group classification | category part 4 sets a threshold value with respect to the average value of the monthly power consumption calculated for every season, and compares the said threshold value and the average value of monthly power consumption, and the usage condition for every season Make an evaluation of In the example shown in FIG. 4B, the threshold values S1 and S2 are set, and the group classification unit 4 uses the power consumption during the season when the integrated monthly power consumption of the predetermined season is smaller than the threshold S1. Rate less. If the integrated monthly power consumption of a predetermined season is equal to or greater than the threshold S1 and is equal to or less than the threshold S2, the group classification unit 4 evaluates that the amount of power used is normal during the season. When the accumulated monthly power consumption of a predetermined season is larger than the threshold S2, the group classification unit 4 evaluates that the season has a large amount of power consumption. Although the threshold value S1 is set to 0.91 and the threshold value S2 is set to 1.10 in FIG. 4B, the numerical value may be set in any way. Moreover, simplification may be aimed at by making a threshold into one, and evaluation may be performed in more detail by making it three or more.

  The group classification | category part 4 classifies the household which concerns on evaluation object to either group by evaluating the use condition about each season, and evaluating the use tendency throughout a year. For example, the group classification unit 4 may classify the household related to the evaluation result of “Winter: Many, Spring / Fulse: Less, Summer: Many” into “a group whose power demand is large in winter and summer”. The group classification unit 4 has "Winter: Many, Spring-Summer: Normal, Summer: Normal", "Winter: Many, Spring-Fuish: Less, Summer: Normal", "Winter: Many, Spring-Summer: Normal, Summer: Less", "Winter Households related to the evaluation result of: many, spring / autumn: small, summer: small may be classified as a “group in which the power demand is high in winter”. The group classification unit 4 has "Winter: Normal, Spring-Fulsh: Normal, Summer: Many", "Winter: Normal, Spring-Fulse: Less, Summer: Many", "Winter: Less, Spring-Fulsh: Many, Summer: Many", "Winter Households related to the evaluation results of “less, spring / autumn: normal, summer: high”, “winter: low, spring / autumn: low, summer: high” may be classified as “group having high electricity demand in summer”. The group classification unit 4 has "Winter: Normal, Spring / Summer: Normal, Summer: Normal", "Winter: Normal, Spring / Summer: Less, Summer: Normal", "Winter: Normal, Spring / Summer: Normal, Summer: Less", "Winter Households related to the evaluation result of: small, spring / autumn: normal, summer: normal may be classified as “group in which fluctuation in power demand is small throughout the year”. The relationship between these evaluation results and the classified groups may be changed as appropriate. Also, groups may be further classified. The group classification unit 4 classifies all the households in the sample household group into any group, and outputs the data to the storage unit 3. In the example shown in FIG. 3, the group classification unit 4 groups the sample households "group A: demand for electricity increases in winter", "group B: demand for electricity increases in summer", "group C: demand for electricity It is classified into three groups that the fluctuation is small in the whole year. As mentioned above, the group classification | category part 4 grasps | ascertains the tendency of power consumption based on each of the comparison result with the threshold value in several time (winter, summer, spring and autumn).

  The household attribute classification unit 5 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition. Based on the attribute information of each household stored in the storage unit 3, the household attribute classification unit 5 determines an attribute condition for classification as a household attribute. The attribute condition is preferably a condition that is likely to affect power consumption and power usage and is easy to obtain. The household attribute division unit 5 may divide household attributes based on one attribute condition, and may divide household attributes based on a plurality of attribute conditions. For example, as the attribute condition, the household attribute classification unit 5 may determine how many people are in the household. The household attribute classification unit 5 may determine whether the type of residence is a detached house or an apartment house. For example, the household attribute division unit 5 indicates where the residence is (eg, where in the area, sea side or inland side, high or low, north (cold) or south (warm) , Etc.) may be determined. In addition, the household attribute classification unit 5 may determine whether the household income is high or low. In addition, the household attribute classification unit 5 may determine whether the contract capacity with the power company is large or small. In addition, although many conditions are shown in order to illustrate what can be employ | adopted as household conditions here, the attribute condition which the household attribute division part 5 employ | adopts may be about several of these. The power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to this embodiment does not finely divide a large number of attribute conditions as in the related art, and can easily estimate the demand power even with a small number of household conditions. In the example illustrated in FIG. 5, the attribute condition is determined based on a plurality of attribute conditions of the number of households (condition A) and the type of residence (condition B). Specifically, in the case of one household, "A = 1", and in the case of two persons, "A = 2". In the case of a detached house, "B = 1", and in the case of an apartment house, "B = 2". In this way, the sample household group is divided into a total of four household attributes by determining two attribute conditions of choice.

  The group ratio information acquisition unit 6 acquires, for each household attribute classified by the household attribute classification unit 5, group ratio information indicating the ratio occupied by each group. Further, the group ratio information acquisition unit 6 stores the acquired group ratio information in the storage unit 3 as a database. In the following description, “the ratio of the number of households belonging to a certain group to the total number of households belonging to one household attribute” may be simply referred to as “group ratio”. Specifically, in FIG. 5, the sample household group is divided into four household attributes, and group proportions are determined for three groups A, B, and C in each household division.

  As shown in FIG. 5, when the sample household group is divided into four household attributes and classified into three groups, the sample household group is divided into 12 patterns in total. The group ratio information acquisition unit 6 may add the estimated value of the power demand per household in each pattern to the above-mentioned database. If the household attribute and the group (indicating the use situation) are known, the monthly power demand of the household belonging to that can be estimated. For example, in the case of a household having a pattern of “two household members live in an apartment and consume a large amount of power in summer”, it is estimated that the electric power demand of a household belonging to the same pattern is similar. As an estimate of such monthly power demand, the average value, the maximum value, the minimum value, and the standard deviation of each value representing the variation of monthly power consumption of the entire household belonging to the same pattern among the sample household group May be adopted.

  Next, each configuration of the estimation unit 2 will be described. The household attribute classification unit 7 classifies a target household group, which is an estimation target of the power demand, into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition. In addition, about the attribute conditions of the household attribute classification part 7, the conditions similar to the household attribute classification part 5 which divides a sample household group are used. That is, the household attribute classification part 7 classifies a target household group by the household attribute similar to the household attribute classification part 7 with respect to a sample household group. The household attribute classification unit 7 may be provided as one component with the household attribute classification unit 5. In the example illustrated in FIG. 5, the household attribute classification unit 7 classifies the target household group into four household attributes based on the number of households (condition A) and the type of residence (condition B).

  The group ratio estimation unit 8 estimates the ratio occupied by each group for each household attribute classified by the household attribute classification unit 7 based on the group ratio information. The group ratio estimation unit 8 acquires a database related to group ratio information from the storage unit 3, and uses the database to estimate the group ratio for each household attribute of the target household group. The group ratio estimation unit 8 estimates that the ratio occupied by each group is the same in the same household attribute between the target household group and the sample household group. This is because the size of the number of households is different between the sample household group and the target household group, and the ratio of household attributes is different from each other, but the group ratio among the divided household attributes is the size of the household group It is based on the assumption that the ratio will be similar between sample households and target households regardless of the situation. In the example shown in FIG. 5, the group ratio estimation unit 8 estimates the group ratios for the groups A, B, and C for each of the four household classifications divided by the household attribute classification unit 7.

  The power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the total power demand by the target household group based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimation unit 8. The power demand estimation unit 9 acquires the estimated power demand set based on the household attribute and the group, and estimates the total power demand based on the estimated power demand. The power demand estimation unit 9 acquires, from the database of the storage unit 3, data of monthly power demand per household in each pattern. As shown in FIG. 5, since it is possible to grasp the proportion of households related to one pattern in the target household group, it is possible to grasp the number of households belonging to the pattern in the entire target household group. Therefore, the power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the estimated monthly power demand of the household group belonging to the pattern by multiplying the monthly power demand per household in the predetermined pattern acquired from the database by the number of households. Can. The power demand estimation unit 9 can estimate the power demand of the entire target household group by integrating the estimated power demand for each month in all the patterns.

  Next, the power demand estimation method according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS.

  As shown in FIG. 2, first, the group classification unit 4 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group (step S100). Here, as shown in FIG. 3, the group classification unit 4 groups the sample households "group A: increase in electricity demand in winter", "group B: increase in electricity demand in summer", "group C: electricity demand Are classified into three groups, which are stable throughout the year.

  Next, the household attribute classification unit 5 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition (step S110). Here, as shown in FIG. 5, the number of households (condition A) and the type of residence (condition B) are determined as attribute conditions. Specifically, in the case of one household, "A = 1", and in the case of two persons, "A = 2". In the case of a detached house, "B = 1", and in the case of an apartment house, "B = 2". Accordingly, the household attribute classification unit 5 sets the sample household group to “A = 1, B = 1”, “A = 1, B = 2”, “A = 2, B = 1”, “A = 2, B =”. We divide into four household attributes called "2".

  Next, the group ratio information acquiring unit 6 acquires group ratio information indicating the group ratio in each group for each household attribute classified in S110 (step S120). Here, as shown in FIG. 5, the group ratio information acquiring unit 6 acquires the group ratio of each of the groups A, B, and C for each of the four household attributes, and creates a database. In addition, the estimated value of the power demand per household in each of the 12 patterns is added to the database.

  Next, the household attribute classification unit 7 classifies a target household group, which is an estimation target of the power demand, into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition (step S130). Here, as shown in FIG. 6, the household attribute classification unit 7 selects the target household group as “A = 1, B = 1”, “A = 1, B = 2” as in the attribute condition of the sample household group. , "A = 2, B = 1" and "A = 2, B = 2" are classified into four household attributes.

  Next, the group ratio estimation unit 8 estimates the ratio occupied by each group for each household attribute classified in S130 based on the group ratio information acquired in S120 (step S140). Here, as shown in the lower part of FIG. 6, “A = 1, B = 1”, “A = 1, B = 2”, “A = 2, B = 1”, “A = 2, B = 2 The group ratio of each of the groups A, B, and C is estimated for each of the four household attributes of “1”. As can be seen from FIGS. 5 and 6, each group ratio of groups A, B and C in the bar graph of “A = 1, B = 1” shown in FIG. 5 is “A = 1, B shown in FIG. The group proportions of each of the groups A, B and C in the part of “= 1” are equal.

  Next, the power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the total power demand by the target household group based on the estimation result of S140 (step S150). The number of households in each pattern can be grasped by the process of S140. In addition, monthly power demand per household in each pattern can be grasped from the database. Specifically, the power demand estimation unit 9 multiplies the monthly power demand per household of the household belonging to the pattern “A = 1, B = 1, group A” by the number of households belonging to the pattern. By this, it is possible to estimate the January-December power demand by the household group belonging to the pattern “A = 1, B = 1, group A”. Next, the power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the power demand of January to December by the household group belonging to the pattern “A = 1, B = 1, group B”, and estimates the estimated value already. It integrates with the estimated value of electricity demand. Next, the power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the power demand for January to December by the household group belonging to the pattern “A = 1, B = 1, group C”, and already estimates the estimated value. Integrate to the integrated value of the electricity demand. Thus, when the estimation of the household attributes “A = 1, B = 1” is completed, the power demand estimation unit 9 estimates the household attributes “A = 1, B = 2”, that is, the power demand The estimation unit 9 performs the same calculation and integration on the patterns “A = 1, B = 2, group A”, and performs the same processing thereafter, and estimates and integrates the power demand on all the patterns. . However, there is no particular limitation on the procedure for performing the integration. By the above, the power demand estimation unit 9 acquires a graph related to the estimated value of the total monthly power demand as shown in FIG. 7.

  Next, operations and effects of the power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment and the power demand estimation method will be described.

  In the power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, the group classification unit 4 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on the tendency of the power consumption of the sample household group. The household attribute classification unit 5 classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition. The group ratio information acquisition unit 6 acquires group ratio information indicating the ratio occupied by each group classified by the group classification unit 4 for each household attribute classified by the household attribute division unit 5 as described above. Based on such group ratio information, for each household attribute that classifies the sample household group, it is necessary to grasp in which household attribute the rate at which the group consuming the power is present and how much ratio exists. Can. Here, here, the present inventors indicate the ratio information of each group among the household attributes divided by the sample household group and the respective groups among the household attributes classified in the target household group to be estimated. It has been found that there is a correlation between the ratio of Therefore, based on the same attribute conditions as the household attribute classification unit 5, the household attribute classification unit 7 classifies the target household group to be estimated into a plurality of household attributes. The group ratio estimation unit 8 estimates the ratio occupied by each group for each household attribute classified by the household attribute classification unit 7 based on the group ratio information. As a result, for each household attribute that divides the target household group, it is possible to estimate what proportion of a group that consumes power with which tendency exists in the household attribute. Therefore, the power demand estimation unit 9 can estimate the total power demand by the target household group based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimation unit 8 as described above. By the above processing, even if household attributes are classified based on information that is easy to obtain as attribute conditions (in the above embodiment, only the easy-to-acquire attribute conditions of the number of households and the housing type are considered) Power demand can be estimated by classifying into groups based on volume trends and making estimations taking into account group proportions in each household attribute. That is, the estimation accuracy can be easily improved as compared to the case where the estimation accuracy is to be improved by making the attribute condition too detailed. Thus, the power demand can be easily estimated.

  Here, the present inventors set the ratio of each group in the household attributes divided in the sample household group as the ratio of each group in the household attributes divided in the target household group (data It has been found that it is possible to use as it is without the need for particularly adjusting the Therefore, in the power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, the group proportion estimation unit 8 estimates that the proportion occupied by each group is the same in the same household attribute between the target household group and the sample household group. . As a result, since the group ratio in the group ratio information based on the sample household group can be used as it is for the target household group, the processing load of the group ratio estimation unit 8 can be reduced.

  In the power demand estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, the group classification unit 4 acquires information on the amount of power consumption within a predetermined period of the sample household group, divides the predetermined period into a plurality of time periods, and each time period The power consumption amount in is compared with a predetermined threshold value, and the tendency of the power consumption amount is grasped based on the respective comparison results in a plurality of periods. By this, the group classification | category part 4 can classify | categorize a group easily in the process which only compares a power consumption and a threshold value in each time.

  The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above.

  For example, in the above-described embodiment, the usage status of each season is grouped based on the monthly power consumption, but on what period of time the power consumption is estimated, or how it is estimated There is no limitation on how to group power usage trends on a timely basis. In addition, for example, daily (every day of the week) or hourly power consumption can be estimated by the same method as the present invention.

1 ... database preparation unit, 4 ... group classification unit, 5 ... household attribute classification unit (first household attribute classification unit), 6 ... group ratio information acquisition unit, 7 ... household attribute classification unit (second household attribute classification unit 8) Group ratio estimation unit 9 Power demand estimation unit 100 Power demand estimation device.

Claims (4)

A power demand estimation device for estimating the total power demand of a plurality of households, wherein
A group classification unit that classifies the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on a trend of power consumption of the sample household group;
A first household attribute classification unit which classifies the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition;
A group ratio information acquisition unit for acquiring group ratio information indicating a ratio occupied by each group for each of the household attributes classified by the first household attribute classification unit;
A second household attribute classification unit that classifies a target household group, which is an estimation target of the power demand, into the plurality of household attributes based on the predetermined attribute condition similar to the sample household group;
A group ratio estimation unit configured to estimate, for each of the household attributes classified by the second household attribute classification unit, a ratio occupied by each of the groups based on the group ratio information;
A power demand estimation unit that estimates a total power demand by the group of target households based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimation unit.   The power demand estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the group ratio estimation unit estimates that the ratio occupied by each group is the same in the same household attribute between the target household group and the sample household group. The group classification unit
Acquiring information on power consumption within a predetermined period of the sample household group;
The predetermined period is divided into a plurality of times,
The power according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the power consumption in each of the periods is compared with a predetermined threshold, and the tendency of the amount of power consumption is grasped based on the comparison result in each of the plurality of periods. Demand estimation device. A power demand estimation method for estimating the total power demand of a plurality of households, comprising
A group classification step of classifying the sample household group into a plurality of groups based on a trend of power consumption of the sample household group;
A first household attribute classification step of dividing the sample household group into a plurality of household attributes based on a predetermined attribute condition;
A group ratio information acquisition process for acquiring group ratio information indicating a ratio occupied by each group for each of the household attributes classified by the first household attribute classification process;
A second household attribute classification step of dividing a group of target households for which power demand is to be estimated into the plurality of household attributes based on the predetermined attribute condition similar to the sample household group;
A group proportion estimation step of estimating the proportion occupied by each group for each of the household attributes classified by the second household attribute division step based on the group proportion information;
A power demand estimation step of estimating a total power demand by the group of target households based on the estimation result of the group ratio estimation step.

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