JP6517636B2 - Avalanche detection system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an avalanche detection system that detects the occurrence of an avalanche by measuring micro atmospheric pressure oscillations.

  There are many avalanche hazard points in the living area of heavy snow areas. The presence of such an avalanche hazard places restrictions on people's outdoor activities. For this reason, if it is possible to detect the occurrence of an avalanche and narrow down the time zone and place requiring caution, it is possible to ease the restriction on outdoor activities.

  As a technique which can be applied to detection of the occurrence of snowfall in relation to detection of a natural disaster, for example, there is one which detects the occurrence of snowfall or the like by a wire stretched along a railway (see, for example, Patent Document 1). In addition, there is one which detects occurrence of an avalanche or the like by a vibration measured by a seismograph installed along a railway (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

Unexamined-Japanese-Patent No. 2007-83971 JP, 2014-228325, A

  However, since the technology of Patent Document 1 presupposes the use of a wire stretched along a railway, when avalanche hazard points are dispersed over a wide area, applying it to the whole area is cost and the like. There is a problem and it is very difficult. Moreover, the technology of Patent Document 2 can also be applied to detection of avalanches as a natural disaster other than an earthquake, but this is applied to a wide area because it assumes the use of a seismograph installed along a railway. Is also very difficult.

  However, it is empirically known that the occurrence of avalanches in areas where avalanche hazard points are scattered has a certain regularity in the time and order. Therefore, if it is possible to grasp the trend and timing of the risk slope falling in each area where avalanche risk points are scattered, and if annual data can be accumulated, it is used for disaster prevention and outdoor activities Can be relaxed to some extent. Furthermore, if it is possible to combine the data accumulated yearly and the data having the flashability of the occurrence of an avalanche at a specific danger point, it is possible to further alleviate the restriction on outdoor activities.

  An object of the present invention is to provide an avalanche detection system suitable for application to a wide area where a large number of avalanche danger points are scattered.

In order to achieve the above object, an avalanche detection system according to the present invention is
A barometric pressure data storage means for storing each barometric pressure data collected in time series at a specific point in an avalanche occurrence area in association with time information at the time of collecting the barometric pressure data;
Trend calculation means for calculating, for each first section, the tendency of pressure changes in a plurality of first sections determined to have a first time length based on time-series pressure data stored in the pressure data storage section;
The average value of time-series pressure data in a plurality of second sections subsequent to the plurality of first sections determined to have a second time length is determined based on time-series pressure data stored in the pressure data storage unit. Average calculation means for calculating every two sections;
The residual value of the predicted value of the barometric pressure at the intermediate time of the second section predicted from the tendency of the barometric pressure change for each first section calculated by the tendency calculating means and the average value calculated by the average calculating means for every second section Residual calculation means for calculating
A third section in which the residual of the average value of the second section calculated by the residual calculation means is set to a third time length longer than the first and second time lengths before each second section And identifying means for identifying a candidate for data of atmospheric pressure fluctuation indicating occurrence of an avalanche, as compared with the residual of the average value of the second section included in.

In the above avalanche detection system,
The identifying means indicates an atmospheric pressure fluctuation indicating an occurrence of an avalanche based on a waveform indicated by the residual of the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure calculated by the residual calculating means for a plurality of consecutive second sections with a predetermined time length. It is possible to identify candidate data.

In the above avalanche detection system,
The air pressure data storage means is arranged at a certain distance in the avalanche occurrence area and each air pressure data collected in time series at each of three or more specific points which are not all arranged on a straight line, In association with time information at the time of collection of the barometric pressure data, it is stored for each specific point,
The said tendency calculation means calculates the tendency of the barometric pressure change in a plurality of 1st sections for every 1st section to each of the above-mentioned three or more specific points,
The average value calculation means calculates, for each of the second sections, an average value of time-series pressure data in a plurality of second sections for each of the three or more specific points.
The residual calculation means calculates, for each of the second sections, residuals between the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure for each of the three or more specific points.
The identification unit may identify, for each of the three or more specific points, a candidate for data on barometric pressure fluctuation indicating occurrence of an avalanche. here,
The avalanche detection system
The occurrence time and occurrence point of an avalanche are identified by comparing the waveforms indicated by the residuals of the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure for each of the three or more particular points according to the time information at the time of reaching each particular point. Means for specifying an occurrence of an avalanche.

Furthermore, the above avalanche detection system
The three or more barometric pressure data collection devices installed at the three or more specific points, and the barometric pressure data collection device are connected via a communication channel, the barometric pressure data storage means, the tendency calculation means, and the average value calculation means The data processing apparatus may include the residual calculation unit, the identification unit, and the snowfall occurrence identification unit.
Each of the air pressure data collection devices is
Pressure data collection means for collecting pressure data of the specific point in time series;
Time information collecting means for collecting time information of the specific point;
A barometric pressure data transmission means for transmitting time-series barometric pressure data collected by the barometric pressure data collecting means to the data processing apparatus in association with time information collected by the time information collecting means;
The data processing device
The air pressure data receiving means may be further comprised of receiving air pressure data in time series associated with time information transmitted from the air pressure data transmitting means, and storing the data in the air pressure data storage means.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS It is a figure which shows the whole structure of the avalanche detection system concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of arrangement | positioning of an observation point. It is a figure which shows the pressure oscillation frequency by weather and other events. It is a figure which shows the structure of the barometric pressure sensor placed in a local station. It is a figure which shows the data format of micro pressure data. It is a figure which shows the time series of the one-minute average value of barometric pressure. It is a figure which shows the calculation method of the residual used for identification of the micro pressure oscillation of an avalanche zone. It is a figure which shows transition of the minimum value of the 1-minute maximum value of a residual. It is a figure which shows transition of 1 minute standard deviation of a residual. It is a figure which shows the case where the fluctuation | variation of a residual became large. It is a figure which shows the barometric pressure waveform in CASE10 of FIG. It is a figure which shows the residual waveform in CASE10 of FIG. It is the time enlarged view of the residual waveform of FIG. It is a figure which shows the cross correlation of the residual of three points. It is a figure which shows the estimation result of the position of an observation point, and the micro pressure generation source position.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of an avalanche detection system according to this embodiment. As illustrated, the avalanche detection system according to this embodiment is located at each of three observation points existing in the area where the avalanche danger point exists, and the local station 1 (which measures micro atmospheric pressure oscillations at the observation points) 1a, 1b, 1c) and data of micro atmospheric pressure vibration measured and transmitted by the local station 1 (micro atmospheric pressure data) are processed, and aggregation including server device 20 for specifying the occurrence point and occurrence time of avalanche And a station 2.

  The local station 1 includes an atmospheric pressure sensor 11, a personal computer (PC) 12 including a CPU, a memory, and an input / output device, and a communication device 13 such as a Wi-Fi router. The atmospheric pressure sensor 11, PC 12, communication device 13 are mutually connected by LAN. The server device 20 placed in the central station 2 is connected to the data processing device 21 including a CPU, a memory, and an input / output device, an avalanche database 22 created based on micro pressure data transmitted from the local station 1, and the Internet 3 And the communication device 23. The data processing device 21 notifies the user of information on the identified avalanche as a daily report by e-mail, and the user can refer to the avalanche database 22.

  FIG. 2 is a view showing an arrangement example of observation points where the local station 1 is placed. There are three observation points, A, B, and C. Ideally, the three observation points should be arranged in an equilateral triangle, but there will be restrictions such as topographical problems, securing of power supply, protection from atmospheric pressure sensor 11 snowfall, maintenance work of local station 1, etc. It is difficult to choose three points that can be arranged in a triangle. However, in order to specify the occurrence point and occurrence time of an avalanche, it is impossible to arrange three observation points in a straight line. Due to such a restriction, here, the points A, B and C in FIG. 2 are arranged such that the maximum internal angle is about 140 degrees.

  Here, the point A is located at an elevation of 525 m at the middle of the slope, the point B is at a height of 700 m facing the northwest of the ridge, and the point C is at a height of 485 m at the valley topography. The distance between the point A and the point B is 917 m, the distance between the point A and the point C is 981 m, and the distance between the point B and the point C is 1784 m. Thus, the distance between the observation points is about 1 km in consideration of attenuation of micro atmospheric pressure vibration caused by an avalanche, mixing of noise, or accuracy of identifying an avalanche occurrence point.

  The local station 1 placed at the points A, B, and C measures the micro atmospheric pressure oscillation caused by the avalanche, but in the natural world, micro atmospheric pressure oscillations of various bands due to various phenomena are observed. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the atmospheric pressure oscillation frequency due to weather and other events. As shown in the figure, micro atmospheric pressure oscillations caused by an avalanche fall in a band of 1 to 10 Hz. This band substantially overlaps with the band of room sound when the window glass and the shutter vibrate due to wind or the like, and may also overlap with a band of low temperature living sound or turbulent vortex. Therefore, it is necessary to detect micro atmospheric pressure vibration in the band of 1 to 10 Hz and to separate noise from micro atmospheric pressure vibration due to avalanche.

  FIG. 4 is a view showing the configuration of the barometric pressure sensor 11 provided in the local station 1. As shown in the figure, the barometric pressure sensor 11 is composed of a quartz crystal vibrating pressure transducer (barometer) 110 housed in a protective case 130, and a logger 111 having a function as a computer device. Further, to the atmospheric pressure sensor 11, a radio wave of the GPS satellite 200 including the time when the satellite clock is scribed is received, and a GPS receiver 112 having a GPS antenna 112a and an internal clock 112b is connected.

  The GPS receiver 112 can measure time with an accuracy of 1 μs within 4 seconds after capturing four or more radio waves of the GPS satellite 200. However, although the altitude of the GPS satellite 200 is low particularly at the observation point of the valley line, etc., the radio wave can not be captured in such a case, but in such a case, the time when the internal clock 112b is cut can not but be used. Assuming that the internal clock 112b has an accuracy of about 10 seconds / month, there may be a deviation of about 0.01 seconds when converted to one hour, but the micro atmospheric pressure is transmitted at the speed of sound. It is only. Therefore, this degree of deviation does not substantially pose a problem for surface avalanches.

  The quartz crystal vibrating pressure transducer 110 is a barometer that changes the vibration frequency according to the barometric pressure. The measurable range of the barometric pressure by this is 500 to 1000 hPa, and it is possible to measure the range of mean barometric pressure ± 100 hPa from sea level to about 4000 m above sea level. In addition, the time required to measure 1 data at the time of obtaining the resolution of atmospheric pressure 0.001 hPa is 0.0022 seconds, data can be recorded up to 100 times per second, and 1 to 10 Hz is the band of micro atmospheric pressure oscillation due to the above-mentioned avalanche. It is possible to measure micro pressure oscillations in the range of 0 to 100 Hz including. That is, here, the sampling frequency is set to 100 Hz and the cutoff frequency is set to 22 Hz.

  The logger 111 includes a ten key 121 used for setting the sampling & cutoff frequency, a processing unit 122, a display unit 123, an SD card 124, and a communication port 125. The processing unit 122 outputs minute pressure data converted to the Win format described later from the communication port 125 based on the time (time stamp) acquired by the GPS reception device 112 and the pressure value and outputs the data to the personal computer 12. , Are stored in the SD card 124 as backup data.

  Although the air pressure sensor 11 is housed in a protective case 130 made of a hard case protected by urethane for shock absorption, the air pressure sensor 11 is vibrated to prevent vibration and low temperature from being transmitted to the quartz crystal vibration type pressure transducer 110. It needs to be placed in a quiet environment without noise and noise. Moreover, in order to avoid wind and rain and dust (especially wind), it is desirable to place in a closed indoor space, but if buried in snow sufficient for avalanche occurrence, it may be a simple container house. At the point A, the pressure sensor 11 is installed in the container house, and at the points B and C, the pressure sensor 11 is installed in the wooden house.

  In addition, the GPS antenna 112a of the GPS receiver 112 needs to be fixed at an open place without an obstacle around it. However, when a large amount of snowfall occurs on the GPS antenna 112a, the radio wave of the GPS satellite 200 can not be received. Therefore, at the point A where the barometric pressure sensor 11 is placed in the container house, the GPS antenna 112a is installed on a pole higher than the annual maximum snow depth so as not to be buried in snow, and conical plastic is attached to the tip and attached It has snow protection measures. At points B and C, a GPS receiver 120 including a GPS antenna 112a is installed at the second floor window of the wooden house in which the barometric pressure sensor is installed.

  In addition, in B and C which installed the barometric pressure sensor 11 and the GPS receiving device 120 in the wooden house, the household power supply currently supplied to the wooden house can be used as a drive power supply of each component of the local station 1. At point A, a large-capacity battery is used as a drive power source for each component of the local station 1, but if power can be supplied from a wire network, this may be used as a drive power source.

  Next, collection of micro pressure data in the local station 1 will be described. In the local station 1, the barometric pressure value measured by the quartz crystal vibrating pressure transducer 110 every one hundredth of a second is associated with the time acquired from the GPS receiver 112, and sent to the processing unit 122 of the logger 111. After being processed, the communication port 125 sends it to the personal computer 12. The personal computer 11 generates micro pressure data of Win format every minute and stores it as backup data and sends it to the central station 2 from the communication device 13.

  FIG. 5 is a view showing a data format of micro pressure data. As shown in FIG. 5A, micro pressure data is created as a one-minute file. As shown in FIG. 5 (b), minute pressure data for one minute is divided into blocks for one second from data for 00 seconds to data for 59 seconds, and the minute pressure data for each second is 4 bytes. It consists of a block size followed by a second block. The second block is, as shown in FIG. 5C, composed of a 6-byte second header, a 4-byte channel header, a 4-byte head sample, and sample data thereafter.

  The second header is a date, hour, minute, and second at which micro pressure data of the second is acquired. The leading sample is to record the pressure value obtained first among the 100 pressure values included in the second in units of 0.000001 hPa. The subsequent 99 sample data records only the difference from the pressure value of the leading sample.

  Here, two bytes are allocated for recording the difference of sample data after the first sample. It is extremely rare that atmospheric pressure oscillations that increase or decrease the atmospheric pressure by 0.03 hPa or more occur in 0.01 seconds through preliminary observation, and the insulation property of micro atmospheric pressure oscillations is 0.00127 hPa in 0.01 second in the interior of the wooden house. From the relationship between the size shown in FIG. 5 (d) and the difference range, it was decided to record the difference in 2 bytes, as it was found that there is no silence, which is the following.

  The processing unit 122 of the logger 111 sends micro-atmospheric pressure data for each second to the personal computer 12. The personal computer 12 writes the received second-to-second data on the hard disk, and creates 60 minutes of 1-minute files together. The personal computer 12 transmits from the communication device 13 to the central station 2 via the Internet 3 when the one-minute file is accumulated for five minutes. If the transmission is successful, delete the file, and if it fails, leave the file and try to transmit again.

  The minute pressure data every one second may be backed up and saved in the SD card 124 of the logger 111, and the personal computer 12 may also be backed up and saved without erasing the data written in the hard disk. The personal computer 12 may back up and save the created one-minute file without deleting it.

  The central station 2 receives a one-minute file (five minutes) of micro pressure data every five minutes. The data processing device 21 reads the time described in the file, performs missing processing along with the time, and creates an intermediate file in which one hour of three observation points is regarded as one file. In addition, the missing number and the main index are calculated, and added to the avalanche database 22 as a one-minute statistical value. Further, the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche are specified from micro pressure data sent from the local station 1 at each of the points A, B and C, and are added to the avalanche database 22. Furthermore, taking into consideration that avalanches are likely to occur during the daytime and that the user's action plan for the next day is made in the evening, a daily report for 24 hours is created daily at 17:00 and added to the avalanche database 22 Email the daily report to the user on the day when the avalanche waveform is observed.

  Hereinafter, based on the micro pressure data sent from the local station 1, a process until the intensive station 2 identifies the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche will be described. Here, in local stations 1a to 1c placed at the three observation points in Fig. 2, occurrence of an avalanche based on micro pressure data collected in the period from November 20, 2014 to April 21, 2015, The example which specifies a point and generation | occurrence | production time is demonstrated concretely. The following processing is executed by the data processing device 21 of the central station 2 using a predetermined processing program, using the micro pressure data sent from the local station 1 and stored in the avalanche database 22. However, this does not exclude the case where the administrator designates a processing range by displaying a waveform or the like described later.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a time series of one-minute average values of barometric pressure. As can be seen from the figure, the pressure changes at points A, B and C have substantially the same waveform when compared with the average value for one minute. The point A is about 5 hPa lower than the point C, and the point B is about 20 hPa lower than the point A because of the difference in elevation at each point.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a method of calculating a residual used to identify micro atmospheric pressure oscillation in the avalanche zone. As shown in the figure, for the predicted value estimated from the trend of T seconds, the residual (signed) of the average value observed in s seconds following T seconds is determined to be the micropressure oscillation of the avalanche zone . In this case, the oscillation characteristic of the avalanche is extracted as T = 2 seconds and s = 0.3 seconds. In addition, as described above, it is every 0.01 second to obtain the residual as T = 2 seconds, s = 0.3 seconds, for example, the average residual of from XX hour YY minute ZZ seconds 00 to 30 , The residual of the average from 01 to 31, the residual of the average from 02 to 032,.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the transition of the one-minute maximum value and the minimum value of residuals at points A, B, and C, respectively. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing the transition of the one-minute standard deviation of the residuals at points A, B, and C, respectively. Here, data based on micro atmospheric pressure oscillations observed from January 12, 2015 to January 19, 2015 is shown.

  On January 17th, the fluctuation range of the residual became large at any point, but it is considered that the winter type pressure arrangement became stronger and strong wind was blowing on the day, which caused the oscillation of the micro pressure. Although not shown, when the residual waveform is examined by expanding the time, it is found that there is a difference in each point in the time zone of the peak of the fluctuation width, and it is not a micro atmospheric pressure oscillation caused by one avalanche. Therefore, a simple measurement facility can not minimize the fluctuation of the residual under such stormy weather, so a case of exceeding k times the standard deviation of the residual for the last 30 minutes is considered as a candidate for an avalanche event. Extract. The value of k should be defined so as not to be extracted as a candidate for an avalanche event when an avalanche does not occur or not extracted as a candidate for an avalanche event although an avalanche has occurred, Here, k is set to 10.

  Then, in the same 1 minute throughout the observation period, the vibration of the residual at each point is large, and an example in which the amplitude becomes 10 times or more the standard deviation of the residual for the last 30 minutes is picked up. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example in which the fluctuation of the residual picked up in this way becomes large. Here, 20 cases are mentioned, but the case where the fluctuation range of the residual became the largest is CASE 10, and in the following, the method of specifying the occurrence time of the occurrence place of the avalanche based on this case is explained Do.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram showing pressure waveforms at points A, B, and C in CASE 10 of FIG. These are the original waveforms of micro pressure measured at 100 Hz from 10:47:00 to 10:51:00 at points A, B, and C, respectively. At any point, the atmospheric pressure decreases monotonically during these four minutes.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram showing residual waveforms at points A, B and C in CASE 10 of FIG. As shown in FIG. 7, these are residuals obtained by removing the trend with T = 2 seconds and s = 0.3 seconds. In these figures, the vibration continues for about 20 seconds, and the amplitude gradually increases, so that it has a waveform similar to an avalanche waveform. FIG. 13 is a time enlarged view of each residual waveform of FIG. Comparing these figures, the time at which the wave arrives is delayed at point C than at point A, and is further delayed at point B than point C.

  FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the cross correlation of residuals at three points. This cross correlation is displayed by displaying the waveform at three points in FIG. 13 on a screen, and determining the correlation coefficient r of the waveform in 20 seconds from the time specified by the administrator within a range where the time difference τ is two points distance / sound velocity The In addition, although the distance between AB and AC is less than 1 km and the distance between BC is less than 1.8 km, the maximum peak of the correlation coefficient was seen in CASE 10 within ± 3 seconds, so ± 3 seconds. The range of

  For the residuals of points A and B, points A and C, and points B and C, when the correlation coefficient r peaks at 0.6 or more, the micro atmospheric pressure oscillation caused by the avalanche reaches Calculated as the time difference. In this case, the peak of the correlation coefficient r of the residuals at points A and C is +0.69 seconds, the peak of the correlation coefficient r of the residuals at points A and B is +1.09 seconds, The peak of the residual correlation coefficient at point C is at -0.39 seconds. From this, the micro atmospheric pressure vibration reaches the A point 0.69 seconds earlier than the C point, the micro atmospheric pressure vibration reaches 1.09 seconds earlier than the B point at the A point, and the B point to the C point It can be determined that the micro pressure oscillation has arrived 0.39 seconds earlier than that.

  The position estimated as a generation source of micro atmospheric pressure oscillation from the difference in arrival time of micro atmospheric pressure oscillation between two observation points can be drawn as a hyperbola on the map of FIG. And the place where three hyperbola estimated from each of the difference between A point and B point, the difference between A point and C point, and the difference between B point and C point intersect is the source of the micro atmospheric pressure vibration It can be estimated that it is a position (that is, the occurrence point of an avalanche).

  FIG. 15 is a diagram showing the estimation results of the position of the observation point and the position of the micro pressure generation source in this example. In this figure, the estimation result is shown by 50 m mesh. As can be seen from the figure, the three hyperbola estimated from the difference between point A and point B, the difference between point A and point C, and the difference between point B and point C intersect at almost one point. It can be estimated that this position is the point of occurrence of an avalanche. Then, the occurrence time of the avalanche can also be estimated on the basis of the occurrence point and the estimated position and the time when the micro pressure oscillation has reached each observation point (however, if fine precision is not obtained for the occurrence time, The occurrence time can be estimated from the data shown in the graphs of FIGS.

  As described above, in the avalanche detection system according to the present embodiment, the micro atmospheric pressure data measured by the local station 1 is compared with the predicted value estimated from the trend of T (= 2) seconds, T The residual (signed) of the average value observed in s (= 0.3) seconds subsequent to the second is obtained. Then, a case where the obtained residual exceeds k (= 10) times the standard deviation of the residual for the last 30 minutes is extracted as an avalanche event candidate. The processing load as a whole can be reduced by performing the subsequent processing after extracting candidates for the avalanche event as described above.

  In addition, when the waveforms of vibrations that are candidates for an avalanche event are compared, similar waveforms are observed at different observation points, but the difference in arrival time of the vibrations is obtained according to the correlation coefficient between them. In this way, the difference in arrival time is determined, whereby a hyperbola representing a position estimated as a source of micro atmospheric pressure oscillation is uniquely determined from the difference in arrival time of micro atmospheric pressure oscillations between two observation points. Then, by specifying the position where the three hyperbolic lines intersect, it is possible to specify the occurrence position of the avalanche and further to specify the occurrence time of the avalanche.

  In addition, micro atmospheric pressure data collected respectively by the local station 1 placed at three observation points A, B, and C are collected in the central station 2 via the Internet 3, and the micro atmospheric pressure data is processed in the central office 2 Point of occurrence and time of occurrence of By doing this, the occurrence point and the occurrence time of the avalanche can be specified in a relatively short time from the occurrence of the avalanche, and it is possible to provide the user with the avalanche information having the flashability.

  Furthermore, in the intensive station 2, micro-atmospheric pressure data collected by the local station 1 placed at three observation points, and an avalanche database 22 storing the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche identified based on the data. It is built. By combining the information on the avalanche stored in the avalanche database 22 and the avalanche information having the flashability, for example, when the user knows the occurrence of an avalanche at a certain point, the user is alerted to the occurrence of an avalanche soon. It will be possible to assume a place where it is necessary to do it, and it will be useful for disaster prevention against avalanches.

  The present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and various modifications and applications are possible. Hereinafter, modifications of the above-described embodiment applicable to the present invention will be described.

  In the above embodiment, micro atmospheric pressure data collected by each of the local stations 1 is processed into data of Win format shown in FIG. 5 every one minute, transmitted to the aggregation station 2, and stored in the avalanche database 22 We have estimated the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche using the micro pressure data. On the other hand, the SD card 124 of the logger 111 storing micro pressure data is collected for one winter after snow melts, and the data stored in the collected SD card 124 is used during one winter season. It may be specified when and where the avalanche occurred. Alternatively, micro atmospheric pressure data for one winter stored in the hard disk of the personal computer 12 of the local station 1 may be copied and used.

  In this case, although there is no flashability in the estimation of the occurrence position and occurrence time of the avalanche, it is possible to grasp the tendency of the danger slope and the order in which the dangerous slope collapses in the area where the avalanche danger points are dotted. be able to. By accumulating such a database, a certain degree can be used for disaster prevention without the flashability. In addition, if a database for many years is accumulated including the year in which the data with flashability can not be obtained, there is a flashability created by collecting micro-pressure data in the central station 2 via the Internet 3 A greater effect can be obtained in combination with the data.

  In the above embodiment, with respect to the predicted value estimated from the trend of T seconds for the micropressure data, the residual of the average value observed in s seconds subsequent to T seconds is the residual of the last 30 minutes. If it exceeds k times the standard deviation, it is extracted as an avalanche event candidate. However, it is a function that excludes events from low-correlation events and arrival time differences that occur contradictory from candidates for avalanche events by sequentially calculating the correlation of the waveforms of the three observation points and examining the temporal context of the events. May be added.

  In the above embodiment, the sampling frequency is set to 100 Hz and the cut-off frequency is set to 22 Hz for the crystal vibrating pressure transducer 110. However, the setting of the sampling frequency and the cut-off frequency is not limited to this. For example, if the cut-off frequency is set to 22 Hz as above, the sampling frequency can be set to 44 Hz. Also, although depending on the performance of the quartz crystal pressure transducer 110 and the logger 111, the sampling frequency and the cutoff frequency can be made larger.

  In the above embodiment, the calculation of the residual used to identify micro-pressure oscillations in the avalanche zone is performed with T = 2 seconds and s = 0.3 seconds. However, the values of T and s are not limited to this, and depending on the installation environment of the pressure sensor 11, T is within a range of three times or more of s. If s is determined between 0.5 and 0.1 seconds, the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche can be identified with a degree of accuracy that does not cause any problems in practice. By defining T and s, it is possible to narrow the band that can be extracted for micro atmospheric pressure vibrations.

  In the above embodiment, the target time of the residual to be compared when extracting the avalanche event candidate is set to 30 minutes, but it is not limited to this, and it is in the range of about 10 to 60 minutes. It can also be set arbitrarily. In addition, the value of k does not have to be k = 10, and if it is determined that an avalanche event is not extracted as a candidate for an avalanche event as much as possible (so as not to miss), If k is set to 5 or less, it can be set larger than k = 10 if it is determined that there is no air swing.

  In the above embodiment, the observation points where the local station 1 is to be placed are assumed to be arranged at a distance of about 1 km from each other, taking into consideration the restriction conditions for the installation and the accuracy of specifying the avalanche occurrence point. It was. However, the distance between observation points can be arbitrarily determined in the range of 0.5 to 2 km. Then, when the observation point is installed at a longer distance or a shorter distance, the time range τ for obtaining the correlation coefficient r of the waveform may be determined according to the distance.

  In the above embodiment, only three observation points where the local station 1 is placed are provided in the area where the avalanche risk points are scattered, but any three are arranged so as not to align in a straight line. The number may be four or more. Then, for example, when four observation points at points A, B, C, and D are provided, three points are selected from among them (A, B, C), (A, B, D), (A, C) , D) and (B, C, D), even if the occurrence point and occurrence time of an avalanche are specified for three observation points belonging to each set in the same manner as the above embodiment. Good. Here, when there is a gap between the occurrence point and the occurrence time specified in each pair, the average may be estimated as the occurrence point and the occurrence time. Moreover, when calculating | requiring the average of a point or time, you may weight by the strength of correlation.

  In the above embodiment, micro atmospheric pressure data collected by the local station 1 is collected in the central station 2, and calculation of residual data is performed from the calculation of residual data to identification of the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche. However, since it is only the occurrence point of the avalanche and the specific part of the occurrence time, the data of the three observation points are required, so the personal computer 12 of the local station 1 obtains even residual data and It may be sent. Then, the concentration station 2 may specify the occurrence point and occurrence time of the avalanche using the data of the residual sent from the local station 1 of each observation point. Furthermore, if it is not necessary to store detailed atmospheric pressure data in the avalanche database 22 and it is sufficient to specify the occurrence time and occurrence time of the avalanche, the processing up to the extraction of the avalanche event candidate will be performed by the local station 1 Only the data on the extracted candidate may be sent to the central station 2 by the personal computer 12.

  In the above embodiment, the processing for identifying the point of occurrence and time of occurrence of the avalanche based on the micro pressure data collected by the local station 1 is performed by the data processing device 22 of the central station 2 with a predetermined program. It was supposed to be done. The program may be stored in a recording medium (such as an optical disk or a semiconductor memory) which can be attached to and detached from the computer device, and may be provided independently of the computer device.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 field station 2 concentration station 11 barometric pressure sensor 12 personal computer 13 communication device 20 server device 21 data processing device 22 avalanche database 110 crystal vibration type pressure transducer 111 logger 112 GPS receiver

Claims (4)

A barometric pressure data storage means for storing each barometric pressure data collected in time series at a specific point in an avalanche occurrence area in association with time information at the time of collecting the barometric pressure data;
Trend calculation means for calculating, for each first section, the tendency of pressure changes in a plurality of first sections determined to have a first time length based on time-series pressure data stored in the pressure data storage section;
The average value of time-series pressure data in a plurality of second sections subsequent to the plurality of first sections determined to have a second time length is determined based on time-series pressure data stored in the pressure data storage unit. Average calculation means for calculating every two sections;
The residual value of the predicted value of the barometric pressure at the intermediate time of the second section predicted from the tendency of the barometric pressure change for each first section calculated by the tendency calculating means and the average value calculated by the average calculating means for every second section Residual calculation means for calculating
A third section in which the residual of the average value of the second section calculated by the residual calculation means is set to a third time length longer than the first and second time lengths before each second section An avalanche detection system comprising: identification means for identifying a candidate for data of barometric pressure fluctuation indicating an occurrence of an avalanche in comparison with a residual of an average value of a second section included in. The identifying means indicates an atmospheric pressure fluctuation indicating an occurrence of an avalanche based on a waveform indicated by the residual of the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure calculated by the residual calculating means for a plurality of consecutive second sections with a predetermined time length. The avalanche detection system according to claim 1, wherein candidates for data of are identified. The air pressure data storage means is arranged at a certain distance in the avalanche occurrence area and each air pressure data collected in time series at each of three or more specific points which are not all arranged on a straight line, In association with time information at the time of collection of the barometric pressure data, it is stored for each specific point,
The said tendency calculation means calculates the tendency of the barometric pressure change in a plurality of 1st sections for every 1st section to each of the above-mentioned three or more specific points,
The average value calculation means calculates, for each of the second sections, an average value of time-series pressure data in a plurality of second sections for each of the three or more specific points.
The residual calculation means calculates, for each of the second sections, residuals between the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure for each of the three or more specific points.
The identification means identifies, for each of the three or more specific points, a candidate for data of atmospheric pressure fluctuation indicating occurrence of avalanche;
The avalanche detection system
The occurrence time and occurrence point of an avalanche are identified by comparing the waveforms indicated by the residuals of the predicted value and the average value of the atmospheric pressure for each of the three or more particular points according to the time information at the time of reaching each particular point. The avalanche detection system according to claim 2, further comprising: means for identifying an occurrence of an avalanche. The three or more barometric pressure data collection devices installed at the three or more specific points, and the barometric pressure data collection device are connected via a communication channel, the barometric pressure data storage means, the tendency calculation means, and the average value calculation means A data processing apparatus comprising the residual calculation means, the identification means, and the avalanche occurrence and identification means;
Each of the air pressure data collection devices is
Pressure data collection means for collecting pressure data of the specific point in time series;
Time information collecting means for collecting time information of the specific point;
A barometric pressure data transmission means for transmitting time-series barometric pressure data collected by the barometric pressure data collecting means to the data processing apparatus in association with time information collected by the time information collecting means;
The data processing device
4. The air pressure data receiving means according to claim 3, further comprising an air pressure data receiving means for receiving pressure data in time series associated with time information transmitted from the air pressure data transmitting means and storing the time data in the air pressure data storage means. Avalanche detection system.

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