JP6368230B2 - Apparatus, program and method for estimating stay or movement from determination results using different distances - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for acquiring information related to stay or movement in a user who possesses a mobile terminal.

  Conventionally, many mobile terminals represented by smartphones and tablet computers have a positioning function using a GPS (Global Positioning System), an acceleration sensor, or the like. Currently, there is a technology for transmitting a positioning result by this function to a server of a service provider via a network and deriving a user's action history on the server side.

  On the other hand, the current position of the mobile terminal and the staying time at the position are estimated using communication information between the mobile terminal and the base station acquired on the telecommunications carrier side without using such a positioning function. There are also techniques to do this. In any case, with these technologies, the user can acquire various service information corresponding to the position transmitted by the user from a service provider, a communication provider, or the like.

  As an example of such a technique, in Patent Document 1, position information acquired by the GPS function of a mobile terminal possessed by a user is transmitted to a server, and the server calculates an action range based on the action history of the user. However, a technique for providing information reflecting the range of action is disclosed. In this technique, clustering is performed based on the distance between a large number of pieces of position information measured by the mobile terminal, and the action range for each user is calculated.

  Non-Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for learning a position significant for a user from an action history based on position information acquired by a GPS function of a mobile terminal held by the user. Here, as a first embodiment, the location information for each user acquired by the k-means method improvement method is clustered, and it is determined whether or not the user is in the stay state based on the total stay time.

  Further, Non-Patent Document 2 discloses a technique for clustering user position information using a clustering method using an infinite mixed Gaussian model on a two-dimensional plane.

  Here, the conventional technology described above is based on the premise that the position information of the user can be acquired by the GPS function of the mobile terminal. However, if the GPS function and its application are activated at all times or regularly in the mobile terminal to acquire the position information, the battery of the mobile terminal is consumed quickly. In addition, since position information based on GPS must be separately transmitted from each mobile terminal to the server, the amount of communication from the mobile terminal increases, which may cause communication congestion.

  On the other hand, in the technology for estimating the position and time related to the stay of the mobile terminal using the communication information between the mobile terminal and the base station acquired on the telecommunications carrier side, the terminal side having the above-described problems No positioning function is required. Therefore, it is preferable for the communication carrier to adopt the latter technique. However, the position information acquired via such a base station generally has a feature that the spatial granularity is coarse and the time interval is not constant. As a result, the estimated position error becomes large. In addition, in such a situation where a steady positioning result cannot be obtained, it is difficult to estimate a position in a time zone when the user is not communicating. Therefore, for example, the solution algorithms described in Patent Document 1, Non-Patent Document 1, and Non-Patent Document 2 described above cannot be applied.

  For such a situation, for example, in the technology disclosed in Patent Document 2, the telecommunications carrier side does not rely on the positioning function of the mobile terminal, and the spatial granularity is coarse and the time interval is not constant, but the telecommunications carrier. A significant position is estimated using base station position information that can be acquired by equipment.

  Further, in the technology described in Non-Patent Document 3, the telecommunications carrier side uses an agglomeration type clustering method called a leader algorithm for the location information history of the base station under the control of the mobile terminal, so that the user can A significant position is extracted.

  Furthermore, in the technique described in Non-Patent Document 4, the telecommunications carrier side also sets an upper limit value (for example, three times) regarding the number of times the base station is switched during the stay, and stays in a series of time periods that do not exceed this upper limit value. Extracted as time.

  Furthermore, in the technique disclosed in Patent Document 3, the communication carrier side similarly divides the communication history into predetermined time windows (time divisions), and the position probability distribution based on a plurality of base station position information for each time window. To determine “stay” and “movement”. Here, when it is determined as “stay”, clustering is performed on a set having a distance from the representative point that is the center of gravity of a plurality of pieces of position information in each time window, and the position obtained from the result of clustering is the same. It is a place to stay.

  Further, Non-Patent Document 5 discloses a technique for determining whether or not the user is in a staying state and the staying position at the time of staying from the position information acquired by the telecommunications carrier side. Here, in the stay state determination, when the distance between the communication record to be determined and the immediately preceding communication record is within the range of the threshold value D, both records belong to the same cluster. Further, when a cluster including both records is generated in this way, the center of gravity of all communication records in the cluster is calculated, the distance between this center of gravity and the next generated communication record is calculated, and this distance is the threshold D. If it is within the range, the next generated communication record is also in the same cluster, and a new center of gravity is recalculated.

  Furthermore, in the technique of Non-Patent Document 5, when successive communication records are continuously outside the range of the threshold value D, it is assumed that the portion immediately before the communication record that first falls outside the range of the threshold value D belongs to the same cluster. However, even if communication records that are outside the range of the threshold value D appear continuously, if a communication record included in the immediately preceding cluster occurs before the preset number is exceeded, a communication record that is outside the range of the threshold value D Is treated as an outlier, and the center of gravity of this cluster is taken as the stay position. Even if different clusters occur successively, if the distance between the centers of the clusters is within D / 3, these clusters are regarded as the same cluster, and the center of gravity of the center of each cluster is set as the stay position.

  Furthermore, Non-Patent Document 6 calculates distances to all communication records included in a time range that is backed by a preset time mintime from the time when the communication record that is the target of the stay state determination occurs, A technique for determining that the stays are the same if the distance from the communication record is within the range of the threshold D is disclosed. Here, when it is determined that the stays are the same, the distance between the communication records is determined as a round-robin, and the place of the communication record that minimizes the total distance is set as the stay position. For communication records that occur after that, if the distance to the staying position is within D / 2, the same staying position is assumed. On the other hand, if this condition is not met, the communication record immediately before that is stayed. The communication records are sequentially processed starting from a new communication record.

JP 2010-49295 A JP 2012-85095 A JP 2014-116808 A

Toyama Midori, Hattori Takashi, Kanno Tatsuya, “Learning Significant Positions Using Cellular Phone Positioning Functions”, IPSJ Transactions, vol.46 No.12, pp.2915-2924, 2005 Petteri Nurmi, Sourav Bhattacharya, "Identifying Meaningful Places: The Non-parametric Way", Pervasive 2008, pp.111-127, 2008 S. Isaacman, R. Becker, R. Caceres, SG Kobourov, M. Martonosi, J. Rowland, and A. Varshavsky, "Identifying Important Places in People's Lives from Cellular Network Data", Proc. Of the 9th International Conference on Pervasive Computing, pp.133-151, 2011 MA Bayir, M. Demirbas, and N. Eagle, `` Mobility profiler: A framework for discovering mobility profiles of cell phone users '', Proc. Of the International Conference on Pervasive and Mobile Computing, vol.6, no.4, pp. 435--454, 2010 J. H. Kang, W. Welbourne, B. Stewart, G. Borriello, "Extracting places from traces of locations", ACM SIGMOBILE Mobile Computing and Communications Review, vol. 9, no. 3, July 2005 J. Liu, O. Wolfson, H. Yin, "Extracting Semantic Location from Outdoor Positioning Systems", Proc. Of the 7th International Conference on Mobile Data Management (MDM 2006), pp. 73, 2006

  However, in the stay determination technology based on the communication information acquired on the telecommunications carrier side as described above, there is still a problem that the accuracy of the determination result cannot be said to be sufficiently high.

  For example, in the techniques described in Non-Patent Document 3 and Patent Document 2, the accuracy of the calculated stay position cannot be said to be sufficiently high due to the influence of communication that occurs when moving between stay places. Will occur. In particular, in the technique described in Patent Document 2, the staying state is determined after clustering a large number of pieces of position information measured by the base station. As a result, there may be a problem that the accuracy of the location of the staying place is lowered.

  Further, according to the technique described in Non-Patent Document 4, since the location information is not taken into consideration, the staying place before moving is the same as the staying place after moving for a mobile terminal that hardly generates communication during movement. There is a concern that it will be a place to stay. In addition, when the base stations are densely arranged within a narrow range, there may be a problem that the stay time is excessively divided.

  Furthermore, in the technique described in Patent Document 3, when there are a plurality of base station position information satisfying the condition of “stay” for each time window, positioning using all base stations is performed and The location is consolidated in one place. As a result, even when the mobile terminal moves between a plurality of base stations included in one time window, there is a concern that it is determined as “stay”.

  Furthermore, in the techniques described in Non-Patent Documents 4 to 6, a distance that is a determination criterion in stay movement determination is used. This distance is less likely to be determined to move as the distance is longer (easily determined to be stay), and the accuracy (accuracy) of the result determined to be moved is higher (the accuracy of the determination result to stay is lower). And). In addition, the shorter the distance, the easier the movement is determined and the lower the accuracy (accuracy) of the movement determination. Therefore, in these techniques, the stay movement determination is performed after determining one distance at which the stay and the movement can be estimated in a balanced manner.

  However, the distance serving as the determination criterion greatly affects the determination result. That is, even in the same communication information, depending on the setting of the distance, the determination result often changes from movement to stay or from stay to movement. Therefore, it becomes necessary to search for a better distance value each time according to the communication environment such as the recorded contents / type of the communication information and the deployment situation of the base station. Moreover, even if one distance is set in this way, it is still difficult to obtain a stay movement determination result having sufficiently high accuracy.

  Therefore, the present invention provides an apparatus, a program, and a method that can make a determination that is more suitable for the communication environment related to a communication record to be determined, and estimate the stay or movement status of a user who has a mobile terminal with higher accuracy. The purpose is to do.

According to the present invention, an apparatus for estimating stay or movement of a user possessing a mobile terminal,
Communication including a plurality of communication records in which, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication is associated with the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores the history;
For each determination target communication record, based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records, a comparison target determination unit that determines a comparison target communication record to be compared for the determination target communication record;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. The first stay movement that determines that the state related to the communication record of the determination target is stay for the applied determination distance when it is included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information A determination means;
In the communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy (accuracy) than the case of the second determination distance different from the first determination distance with respect to the first determination distance among the different determination distances. As the estimation result, there is provided a stay movement estimation device having second stay movement determination means that adopts the determination result at the second determination distance of the communication record.

  Further, the second stay movement determining means of the stay movement estimating apparatus according to the present invention provides, for each communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy with respect to the first determination distance in the time series of the plurality of communication records. Whether or not the determination result at the second determination distance is a stay that has a date and time that is continuously present before or after the communication record and has a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result at the second determination distance as the estimation result in the communication record that is the same as the communication record.

Furthermore, as one embodiment of the stay movement estimation device of the present invention, the second stay movement determination means includes:
(A) As an estimation result in the communication record that is determined not to stay for the first determination distance among the different determination distances, the second determination distance is smaller than the first determination distance in the communication record. Adopting the determination result, and for each communication record that is determined not to stay for the first determination distance, the communication record exists continuously before or after the communication record, and is predetermined from the date and time of the communication record. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result that is not the stay as the estimation result in the communication record that has the date and time that falls within the time range and that has the determination result that the second determination distance is not stay, or ,
(B) As an estimation result in the communication record determined to be staying for the first determination distance among the different determination distances, the second determination distance is larger than the first determination distance in the communication record. The determination result is adopted, and further, for each communication record determined to be staying for the first determination distance, the communication record exists continuously before or after the communication record, and is predetermined from the date and time of the communication record. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result indicating the stay as the estimation result in the communication record having the date and time within the time range and having the determination result indicating the stay for the second determination distance.

Furthermore, as other embodiment in the stay movement estimation device of the present invention,
The first stay movement determination means individually applies each of a plurality of preset speed estimation distances to the determination, and indicates the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record. When the position is included in a range defined by the speed estimation distance centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the communication record of the determination target, the communication of the determination target is performed for the applied speed estimation distance. It is determined that the state related to the record is stay,
When the stay movement estimation device arranges the determination results for the communication records of speed estimation targets in order of increasing or decreasing speed estimation distance applied to the determination, immediately before the determination result is switched from stay to stay or Immediately after, the corresponding speed estimation distance is determined, and the result of dividing the determined speed estimation distance by the predetermined time used when determining the communication record to be compared is the movement related to the communication record of the speed estimation target. It is also preferable to further include a moving speed estimating means for estimating that the moving speed is related to the user of the terminal.

Furthermore, as still another embodiment of the stay movement estimation device according to the present invention,
The first stay movement determination means applies each of a plurality of preset movement form estimation distances to the determination individually, and the position information of the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record. If the position to be indicated is included in the range defined by the distance for estimating the movement form centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the communication record to be determined, the determination for the distance for estimating the movement form is applied. The state related to the target communication record is determined to be stay,
The present stay movement estimation device switches the determination result from stay to stay when the determination results for the communication record of the movement form estimation target are arranged in descending order of the movement form estimation distance applied to the determination. A movement form estimation distance corresponding to immediately before or after is determined, and when the determined movement form estimation distance is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, a movement form related to the user of the mobile terminal related to the communication record of the movement form estimation target is determined in advance. It is also preferable to further include a movement form estimation means for estimating that the movement form is.

  Further, in the stay movement estimation apparatus of the present invention, the comparison target determining means is a date and time included in a predetermined time range retroactively from a date and time included in one communication record, and the date and time of the one communication record. The communication record having the date and time corresponding to the previous one is used as the previous communication record, the communication record is sequentially traced starting from the communication record to be determined, the previous communication record determined to be staying is sequentially obtained, Going back to the last communication record for which there is no previous communication record that has been determined to be staying, the communication record for the determination target is changed to the communication record for the determination target from a time that is a predetermined time before the date and time of the last communication record. The communication record having the date and time included in the time range up to the time after the elapse of the predetermined time of the included date and time is determined as the comparison target communication record. It is also preferred.

  Furthermore, as the above-described change mode, the comparison target determining unit is included in a time range from a time before a predetermined time of the date and time included in the communication record to be determined to a time after the elapse of the predetermined time of the date and time. It is also preferable to determine a communication record having date and time as a comparison target communication record.

  Furthermore, as still another embodiment of the stay movement estimation device according to the present invention, the first stay movement determination means includes the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record. Among them, the ratio of those included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the determination target communication record is calculated, and the calculated ratio is calculated for the determination target communication record. It is also preferable to use the determination result.

  In addition, when the calculated ratio is a value indicating 100%, the first stay movement determination unit stays the state of the user of the mobile terminal related to the determination target communication record for the applied determination distance. It is also preferable to determine that

According to the present invention, it is a communication equipment device that is connected to a wide area wireless communication network and is the stay movement estimation device described above, in order to store a communication history in a communication history storage unit,
Base station location information managing means for storing a base station identifier and location information indicating the location of the base station or the location of the mobile terminal derived based on the location in association with each other;
A communication record collecting means for collecting a communication record in which a base station connected to a mobile terminal is associated with a base station identifier of the base station and a date and time related to communication for each mobile terminal;
Using the base station position information management means, a communication facility apparatus is provided that further includes position information history generation means for further associating position information corresponding to the base station identifier for each portable terminal with respect to the communication record.

According to the present invention, there is further provided a program for causing a computer installed in a stay movement estimation device that estimates a stay or movement of a user possessing a mobile terminal,
This stay movement estimation device associates, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication and the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores communication history including a plurality of communication records;
This program
For each determination target communication record, based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records, a comparison target determination unit that determines a comparison target communication record to be compared for the determination target communication record;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. The first stay movement that determines that the state related to the communication record of the determination target is stay for the applied determination distance when it is included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information A determination means;
In the communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy (accuracy) than the case of the second determination distance different from the first determination distance with respect to the first determination distance among the different determination distances. As the estimation result, there is provided a stay movement estimation program that causes the computer to function as second stay movement determination means that adopts the determination result at the second determination distance of the communication record.

According to the present invention, there is further provided a method for estimating stay or movement using a stay movement estimation device that estimates stay or movement of a user who has a mobile terminal,
This stay movement estimation device associates, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication and the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores communication history including a plurality of communication records;
This stay movement estimation method is
A first step of determining, for each determination target communication record, a comparison target communication record to be compared with respect to the determination target communication record based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. A second step of determining that the state relating to the communication record of the determination target is staying for the applied determination distance when included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information; ,
In the communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy (accuracy) than the case of the second determination distance different from the first determination distance with respect to the first determination distance among the different determination distances. As the estimation result, there is provided a stay movement estimation method having a third step of adopting the determination result at the second determination distance of the communication record.

  According to the stay movement estimation device, program, and method of the present invention, it is possible to make a determination more suitable for the communication environment related to the communication record to be determined, and to estimate the stay or movement status of the user who owns the mobile terminal with higher accuracy. Can do.

It is a schematic diagram which shows roughly the example of the stay and movement of a mobile terminal in real space. It is a functional block diagram which shows the function structure in one Embodiment of the stay movement estimation apparatus by this invention. It is a table which shows one Example of the setting file managed by the setting file management part. It is a table which shows one Example of the base station information file managed by the base station position information management part. It is a table which shows one Example of the communication history managed by the communication record collection part. It is a table which shows one Example of the base station information merge communication log | history produced | generated by the position information log | history production | generation part. It is a table which shows one Example of the process which employ | adopted the fixed time width in a comparison object determination part and a 1st stay movement determination part. It is a table which shows one Example of the process which employ | adopted the fluctuation | variation time width in a comparison object determination part and a 1st stay movement determination part. It is a graph which shows the relationship between the determination distance used for determination, the determination rate of stay or movement in the said determination, and the determination success rate. It is a mimetic diagram for comparing and explaining the judgment result which used two different judgment distances (distance A and B) separately, and a user's actual trend. It is a schematic diagram for demonstrating one Embodiment of the stay movement estimation process in a 2nd stay movement determination part. It is a flowchart which shows one Embodiment of the stay movement estimation process in a 2nd stay movement determination part. It is a table which shows the other Example of the process which employ | adopted the fluctuation | variation time width in a comparison object determination part and a 1st stay movement determination part. It is a table which shows one Example of the stay movement estimation process in a 2nd stay movement determination part. It is a schematic diagram for demonstrating the method of estimating a moving speed from the dependence relation with respect to the determination distance of a determination result. It is a flowchart which shows one Embodiment of the moving speed estimation method implemented in a moving speed estimation part. It is a table which shows one Example of the movement speed estimation process in a movement speed estimation part.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram schematically illustrating an example of stay and movement of a mobile terminal in real space.

  According to FIG. 1, a user who has a mobile terminal 2 such as a mobile phone, a smartphone, a tablet computer, or a wearable terminal includes walking and train use from the time when he / she is at home to the time when he / she is in the office of the company. Repeat “stay” and “movement”. In the present embodiment, the mobile terminal 2 is under the control of any base station at any position and continues to perform wireless communication with the base station. Note that it is also preferable that the mobile terminal 2 communicates with a plurality of base stations at a time, for example, for the purpose of smooth handover, and communicates with, for example, the base station with the highest signal strength.

  In the embodiment of FIG. 1, the user of the mobile terminal 2 enters a “stay” state at home, the A station where the user gets on, the B station where the transfer is performed, and the office of the office, and walks between these stay states. Connected in a “moving” state such as a car or a ride.

  The base station 3 is connected to a wide area wireless communication network (mobile phone network), and includes the date and time (for example, the date and time when communication was started or ended) for each mobile terminal 2 under its control. Get information. Such information acquisition includes calls, mail transmission / reception, web page browsing, communication between the application installed on the mobile terminal 2 and the server, and downloading or uploading of the application or content. It is carried out at the time of etc. The wide area wireless communication network is a carrier communication network, and can be a wireless access network such as LTE (Long Term Evolution), WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access), or 3G (3rd Generation).

  Moreover, although not shown in figure, the communication provider equipment 1 which is connected by communication with these many base stations 3 and integrates these stations is installed. For each mobile terminal 2 that communicates with the base station 3, the telecommunications carrier equipment 1 can always collect a communication record including the date and time information when communicating and the information of the base station that is the communication target. it can. A communication history is a collection of these communication records in time series.

  In general, the communication history includes location information of base stations with coarse spatial granularity and non-constant time intervals. Here, “the spatial granularity is coarse” means that the (geographic) distance in the real space between the position information is relatively long. Further, “the time interval is not constant” means that the time interval between the date and time information associated with the position information varies depending on the communication timing.

The telecommunications carrier equipment 1 as the stay movement estimation device according to the present invention can estimate whether or not the state of the user possessing the mobile terminal 2 is stay or movement using the communication history. it can. Specifically, the telecommunications carrier equipment 1 is preliminarily set for each mobile terminal 2.
(A) Date and time related to communication;
(B) A communication history including a plurality of communication records in which position information indicating the position of the base station related to communication (or the position related to the mobile terminal 2 derived based on the position) is associated is accumulated.

Next, telecommunications carrier equipment 1
(A) For each communication record to be determined, a “comparison target communication record” to be compared with respect to the determination target communication record is determined based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records.
(A) Each of the different “determination distances” set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the “comparison target communication record” determined for the determination target communication record is When it is included in the range defined by the “determination distance” centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the communication record, the state related to the communication record to be determined is stay for the applied “determination distance” judge.

Next, the telecommunications carrier equipment 1
(C) Determination with higher accuracy (accuracy) than the case of “second determination distance” that is different from the first determination distance for “first determination distance” among different determination distances. As the estimation result in the communication record having the result, the determination result at the “second determination distance” of the communication record is employed. further,
(D) In a time series of a plurality of communication records, the communication record exists continuously before or after the communication record, and has a date and time within a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result at the “second determination distance” as the estimation result in the communication record that is the same as the communication record regarding whether or not the determination result at the “determination distance” is stay.

  For example, when the “second determination distance” is smaller than the “first determination distance”, the estimation result in the communication record determined that the “first determination distance” is not staying (moving) It is also preferable to adopt the determination result at the “second determination distance” in the communication record. Furthermore, it has a date and time that is continuously present before or after the communication record and is within a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record, and is not staying for the “second determination distance”. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result indicating that the stay is not the stay as the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result indicating that it is a movement.

  On the other hand, when the “second determination distance” is larger than the “first determination distance”, the estimation result in the communication record determined to be stay (not movement) for the “first determination distance” It is also preferable to adopt the determination result at the “second determination distance” in the communication record. Furthermore, it has a date and time that is continuously present before or after the communication record and has a predetermined time range as viewed from the date and time of the communication record, and is staying for the “second determination distance”. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result indicating that the stay is the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result indicating that the stay is not moving.

  In addition, it is also preferable that the determination result described above is a “stay movement ratio” described later. Alternatively, it can be simply determined as stay or movement.

Here, the “determination distance” used in (a) above is larger as the determination distance is longer.
(A) It is difficult to be judged as moving (it is easy to be judged as stay), and
(B) The accuracy (accuracy) of the result determined as movement is higher (the accuracy of the determination result as stay is lower).
It has the following characteristics. In addition, the shorter the determination distance,
(C) It is difficult to be determined as stay (easy to be determined as movement), and
(D) The accuracy (accuracy) of the result determined as stay is higher (the accuracy of the determination result as movement is lower).
And has the characteristics. Therefore, depending on the communication environment related to the communication record used for determination, the determination result using one “determination distance” has sufficiently high accuracy for at least one of stay and movement regardless of how the value is set. I don't get it.

  Therefore, according to the present invention, as described above, the accuracy of the estimation result is determined by adopting the result with the better accuracy for the determination of whether or not the stay is (moving or not). It can be kept higher. Furthermore, in the communication record that is likely to be one of the determination results from the relationship with the preceding and subsequent communication records, by appropriately correcting the result at the “determination distance” that is difficult to determine as such, This makes it possible to perform highly accurate and consistent stay movement estimation.

  That is, according to the present invention, it is possible to carry out determination more suitable for the communication environment related to the communication record to be determined without being tied to one setting of the determination distance serving as a determination reference. This makes it possible to estimate the stay or movement status of the user with higher accuracy (accuracy).

  In addition, it is possible to estimate the stay or movement state of the user who owns the mobile terminal by using the position information related to the base station included in the communication history that can be acquired by the telecommunications carrier without relying on the positioning function of the mobile terminal. It can be done.

  FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram showing a functional configuration in an embodiment of the stay movement estimation apparatus according to the present invention.

  A communication equipment device 1 shown in FIG. 2 is an embodiment of a stay movement estimation device according to the present invention, is connected to a wide area wireless communication network (cellular phone network), and appropriately collects communication history from the base station 3. can do. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to the present invention can estimate whether the state of the user who has the mobile terminal 2 is stay or movement by using a communication history acquired from the outside. It can also be a computer. In this case, it may not be connected to a wide area wireless communication network (cellular phone network).

  According to FIG. 2, the communication facility device (stay movement estimation device) 1 includes a communication interface unit 101, a communication history storage unit 102, and a processor memory. Here, the processor memory realizes the stay movement estimation function by executing a program that causes the computer, which is the main functional unit of the device 1, to function.

  Furthermore, the processor memory includes a comparison target determination unit 111, a stay movement estimation unit 112, a movement speed estimation unit 113, a setting file management unit 114, and an application processing unit 131 as function components. Here, stay movement estimation section 112 includes a first stay movement determination section 112a and a second stay movement determination section 112b. Moreover, the movement speed estimation part 113 contains the movement form estimation part 113a. 2 is understood as an embodiment of the stay movement estimation method according to the present invention.

  Furthermore, the communication equipment device 1 further includes a base station position information management unit 121, a communication record collection unit 122, and a position information history generation unit 123 in order to cause the communication history storage unit 102 to store a communication history.

[Setting file management unit 114]
The setting file management unit 114 stores and manages setting values used in each step of stay movement determination, which will be described later as appropriate, as a setting file. The setting file may be received from the outside via the communication interface unit 101, or may be input via the input unit of the device 1 (not shown).

FIG. 3 is a table showing an example of a setting file managed by the setting file management unit 114. According to FIG. 3, the configuration file contains
(A) "Comparison time" used when determining a comparison target communication record;
(B) “maximum distance between base stations” used when determining the stay movement ratio in the stay movement determination;
(C) A specific value (set value) is set for the “subtraction distance” used when calculating the moving speed of the mobile terminal 2. These set values are used by the comparison target determination unit 111, the stay movement estimation unit 112, and the movement speed estimation unit 113, as will be described in detail later.

[Base station location information management unit 121]
The base station location information management unit 121 (FIG. 2) stores and manages a base station information file in which a base station identifier is associated with “location information related to a base station”. Here, "location information related to the base station"
(A) Base station position information indicating the installation position of the base station 3 may be used. Moreover, as a change aspect,
(B) Position information indicating the positioning result of the location of the mobile terminal 2 derived based on the installation position of the base station 3 may be used. In the embodiment described below, the description is made using the base station location information of (a) above, but instead, the location information of (b) is also used to determine whether or not it is a stay. It is also possible to carry out processing.

  Here, the position information (b) includes, for example, the installation position of the base station 3, the radiating direction (radiation angle) of the radio signal from the base station 3, and the relationship between the base station 3 and the mobile terminal 2. It can be derived from RSSI (Received Signal Strength Indication) or RTD (Round Trip Delay time). In addition to the identification numbers such as 0001 and 0002, the terminal address or telephone number can be used as the base station identifier.

  FIG. 4 is a table showing an embodiment of a base station information file managed by the base station location information management unit 121. According to FIG. 4, in the base station information file, the latitude and longitude of the base station as base station position information are associated with each base station identifier. In FIG. 4, for example, it is understood that the base station 0001 (base station 3 whose base station identifier is 0001) is installed at a position where the latitude is 37.21 degrees and the longitude is 139.31 degrees. Note that such base station position information may be stored in advance in the base station position information management unit 121, or may be appropriately transmitted from each base station 3 via the communication interface unit 101, for example, during data transmission. You may acquire. Furthermore, as a change mode of the base station information file, it is also preferable that the base station information other than the latitude and longitude is associated with an angle range and a radio wave radiation angle at which radio waves are radiated for each base station.

[Communication Record Collection Unit 122]
The communication record collection unit 122 (FIG. 2) transmits the date and time (time information) related to communication and the base station identifier of the base station 3 related to communication for each mobile terminal 2 from the base station 3 connecting the mobile terminal. Communication records (communication logs) are collected. Here, the communication history is a communication record in which date and time are arranged in chronological order. The date and time related to communication may be the connection start date and time of communication, or may be the date and time of disconnection of communication. Also, as the date and time related to communication, both the communication connection start date and time and the communication disconnect date and time may be included in the communication record. Furthermore, it is preferable that radio information such as radio wave signal strength (RSSI) and round trip delay time (RTD) from a base station involved in communication is further associated with each terminal identifier as a communication record change mode.

FIG. 5 is a table showing an example of a communication history managed by the communication record collection unit 122. In the communication history shown in FIG. 5, date and time (time information) and a base station identifier are associated with each terminal identifier of the mobile terminal 2 in each communication record.
Communication record (terminal, date / time, base station identifier)

  The communication history of FIG. 5 is a history of the mobile terminal ABC (the mobile terminal 2 whose terminal identifier is ABC). According to FIG. 5, it is understood that the mobile terminal ABC communicated with the base station 0001 at 20:11 on July 31, 2014.

[Location Information History Generation Unit 123]
The location information history generation unit 123 (FIG. 2) uses the base station information file managed by the base station location information management unit 121, and in the communication history, the location information related to the base station corresponding to the base station identifier for each communication record (Base station position information) is further correlated to generate a base station information merge communication history. The generated base station information merge communication history is output to communication history storage section 102.

  FIG. 6 is a table showing an embodiment of the base station information merge communication history generated by the position information history generation unit 123.

  According to FIG. 6, the base station information merge communication history is obtained by adding the base station information file shown in FIG. 4 to the communication history shown in FIG. 5 in association with the base station identifier. According to the communication history of FIG. 6, it can be understood that the mobile terminal ABC communicated with the base station 0001 located at a latitude of 37.21 degrees and a longitude of 139.31 degrees on July 31, 2014 at 20:11.

[Communication history storage unit 102]
The communication history accumulation unit 102 (FIG. 2) accumulates the base station information merge communication history output from the position information history generation unit 123. That is, for each mobile terminal 2, a plurality of dates and times related to communication are associated with position information indicating the position of the base station related to communication (or the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position). The base station information merge communication history including the communication record is accumulated. In the present embodiment, the communication history accumulating unit 102 can also store “stay travel ratio” and “travel speed” determined as described later.

[Comparison Target Determination Unit 111]
The comparison target determination unit 111 (FIG. 2) acquires the base station information merge communication history from the communication history storage unit 102, and for each communication record to be determined, based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records, The “comparison target communication record” to be compared with respect to the communication record is determined. This “comparison target communication record” is used to calculate the stay movement ratio when determining whether or not the communication record to be determined is in the stay state or the movement state, as will be described in detail later. It is a communication record.

As a method of determining the comparison target communication record,
There are (a) a determination method using a fixed time width, and (b) a determination method using a variable time width, both of which can be adopted. Of these, in the method using the fixed time range, the time range from the time before the “comparison time” of the date / time included in the communication record to be judged to the time after the “comparison time” of this date / time has elapsed A communication record having a date and time included in (fixed time width) is determined as a comparison target communication record. Here, the “comparison target time” is acquired from the setting file management unit 114.

On the other hand, in the method using the variable time width, first, the date / time included in the range of “comparison time” retroactively from the date / time included in one communication record, and the date / time of the one communication record A communication record having a date and time corresponding to the previous one is defined as “immediate communication record”. Moreover,
(A1) Starting from the communication record to be determined, the communication record is sequentially traced, the communication record immediately before determined to be staying is sequentially obtained, and the communication record immediately before being determined to be staying is traced back to the last communication record,
(A2) For the communication record to be determined, from the time before “comparison time” of the date and time of the last communication record to the time after the “comparison time” of the date and time included in the communication record to be determined A communication record having a date and time included in the time range (variable time width) is determined as a comparison target communication record.

[First stay movement determination unit 112a]
The first stay movement determination unit 112a (FIG. 2) applies each of the preset “determination distances” individually to the determination to make a determination related to the stay movement. Specifically, the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is defined by a “determination distance” centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the determination target communication record. If it is included in the range (for example, a circle range having a radius of “determination distance”), it is determined that the state related to the communication record to be determined is stay for the applied “determination distance”.

  Here, the “determination distance” may be two different distance values. Alternatively, “maximum base station distance” and “subtraction distance” are acquired from the configuration file management unit 114, and “maximum base station distance”, “maximum base station distance” − “subtraction distance”, “maximum base station distance” It is also preferable to adopt “distance” −2 × “subtraction distance”,.

  Furthermore, the first stay movement determination unit 112a preferably calculates a “stay movement ratio” as a determination result in the communication record to be determined. Specifically, among the positions indicated by the position information related to the determined comparison target communication record, a range defined by a “determination distance” centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the determination target communication record (for example, “ The ratio of those included in the range of the circle having the determination distance “radius” is calculated as the “stay movement ratio”. Here, when the calculated “stay movement ratio” is 1, that is, a value indicating 100%, regarding the applied “determination distance”, the state of the user of the mobile terminal related to the communication record to be determined is the stay. It is also preferable to determine that there is. When the “stay movement ratio” is less than 1, the user's state may be determined to be movement.

  In addition, by calculating the stay movement ratio, it is possible not only to determine whether the communication record is a stay or movement, but also to estimate the degree of movement (or stay). For example, it is possible to determine that the degree of movement is higher as the stay movement ratio is lower. Thus, although the stay movement ratio determined by the first stay movement determination unit 112a is obtained from the position information in the communication history with a coarse spatial granularity and the time interval is not constant, the stay movement state Has become an excellent indicator that provides more detailed information about.

  Even when the comparison target determining unit 111 determines that there is no comparison target communication record for the determination target communication record, the state of the user of the mobile terminal 2 related to the determination target communication record is determined to be staying. It is also preferable.

  FIG. 7 is a table showing an example of processing adopting a fixed time width in the comparison target determination unit 111 and the first stay movement determination unit 112a. FIG. 8 is a table showing an example of a process that employs a variable time width in the comparison target determination unit 111 and the first stay movement determination unit 112a.

  According to FIG. 7, for each of the communication records No. 1 to No. 15, the range of the comparison target communication record is indicated by an arrow in the comparison target record column. Hereinafter, (a) processing using a fixed time width in the comparison target determination unit 111 and processing in the first stay movement determination unit 112a will be described as a specific example with reference to FIG. Here, the “comparison target time” is 2 minutes 59 seconds, and the “maximum distance between base stations” is set to 5.0 km.

  For example, with respect to communication record No. 5 as a determination target, the comparison target communication record includes communication records No. 3 and No. 4 included in the range of 2 minutes 59 seconds before and after the date and time is “comparison target time”. , No.6 and No.7. Next, the base stations 0001, 0002 and 0003 related to these comparison target communication records No. 3, No. 4, No. 6 and No. 7 are all the positions of the base station 0001 related to the determination target communication record No. 5. Is located within a circular range having a radius of 5.0 km which is the “maximum distance between base stations”. That is, of the four comparison target communication records, all four of the positions of the base stations are located within the circle range. As a result, for the determination target communication record No. 5, the stay movement ratio is determined to be 1 (= 4/4), and the state of the user of the mobile terminal 2 is determined to be stay.

  For communication record No. 9 as the determination target, the comparison target communication records are communication records No. 7, No. 8, No. 10, and No. 11. Next, among the base stations related to these comparison target communication records, the base station 0001 related to the communication record No. 7 has a radius of “maximum base station centered on the position of the base station 0005 related to the determination target communication record No. 9. It is located outside the circle range of 5.0 km of the “distance”. That is, among the positions of the base stations of these four comparison target communication records, the ones located within the circle range are communication record No. 8 0004, No. 10 0006 and No. 11 0006. . As a result, for the determination target communication record No. 9, the stay movement ratio is determined to be 0.75 (= 3/4), and the state of the user of the mobile terminal 2 is determined to be movement.

  On the other hand, in FIG. 8, the range of the comparison target communication record is indicated by an arrow in the comparison target record column for each of the same communication records No. 1 to No. 15 as in FIG. Hereinafter, (b) the process using the variation time width in the comparison target determination unit 111 and the process in the first stay movement determination unit 112a will be described as a specific example with reference to FIG. Here, as in FIG. 7, the “comparison target time” is 2 minutes 59 seconds, and the “maximum distance between base stations” is set to 5.0 km.

  For example, for communication record No. 8 as a determination target, the stay movement ratio of communication record No. 7 immediately before (included in the time range 2 minutes 59 seconds ago) is not 1 (the determination result is not stay). The comparison target communication records are communication records No. 6, No. 7, No. 9, and No. 10 included in the range of 2 minutes 59 seconds before and after the date and time is “comparison target time”. Next, the base stations 0002, 0001, 0005, and 0006 related to these comparison target communication records No. 6, No. 7, No. 9, and No. 10 are all base stations 0004 related to the determination target communication record No. 8. The radius is 5.0 km of the “maximum distance between base stations” centered on the position of. That is, of the four comparison target communication records, all four of the positions of the base stations are located within the circle range. As a result, for the determination target communication record No. 8, the “stay movement ratio” is determined to be 1 (= 4/4), and it is determined that the state of the user of the mobile terminal 2 is stay.

  Next, regarding the communication record No. 9 as the determination target, the stay movement ratio of the previous communication record No. 8 (included in the time range 2 minutes 59 seconds ago) is 1 (the determination result is stay). However, the stay movement ratio of the immediately preceding communication record No. 7 for the immediately preceding communication record No. 8 is not 1. Therefore, for communication record No. 9, the last communication record is communication record No. 8. As a result, the comparison target communication record is included in the time range from 2 minutes 59 seconds before the date / time of the last communication record No. 8 to 2 minutes 59 seconds after the date / time of the determination target communication record No. 9 Communication records No. 6, No. 7, No. 8, No. 10, and No. 11 are recorded. Next, among the positions of the base stations of these five comparison target communication records, those located within a circular range having a radius of 5.0 km centered on the position of the base station 0005 related to the determination target communication record No. 9 The communication record No. 8 is 0004, No. 10 is 0006, and No. 11 is 0006. As a result, for the determination target communication record No. 9, the “stay movement ratio” is determined to be 0.6 (= 3/5), and the state of the user of the mobile terminal 2 is determined to be movement.

  As described above, in both the embodiment of FIG. 7 (adopting a fixed time width) and the embodiment of FIG. 8 (adopting a variable time width), it is determined that the communication records No. 7 and No. 9 are moving, It is understood that others are determined to be stays.

  Here, in particular, in the determination method using the variable time width, if the mobile terminal 2 having a history that has been continuously determined to be in the staying state is viewed in time units of about “comparison target time”, it is continued. Then, it can be determined whether or not there is a staying state. As a result, by appropriately setting the “comparison target time”, for example, in the entire time range determined to stay continuously, it is determined that the mobile terminal 2 is staying even when the mobile terminal 2 has moved by a considerable distance between them. The possibility of continued stay can be determined with the fineness of time as defined in “Comparison time”. As a result, it is possible to estimate the staying status of the user carrying the mobile terminal 2 with high accuracy.

[Second stay movement determination unit 112b]
The second stay movement determination unit 112b (FIG. 2)
(C) The “first determination distance” among the “determination distances” that are different from each other has higher accuracy (accuracy) than the case of the “second determination distance” that is different from the first determination distance. As the estimation result in the estimation target communication record having the determination result, the determination result at the “second determination distance” of the estimation target communication record is adopted,
(D) In the time series of a plurality of communication records, it exists continuously before or after the estimation target communication record, and has a date and time that falls within the “comparison target time” from the date and time of the estimation target communication record. As the estimation result in the communication record that is the same as the estimation target communication record regarding whether or not the determination result in the “second determination distance” is stay, the determination result in the “second determination distance” is adopted.

  Specifically, as the estimation result in the estimation target communication record determined as “not stay” for the “first determination distance”, the “second determination” smaller than the first determination distance in the estimation target communication record. The determination result in “distance” is adopted, and there is a date and time that exists continuously before or after the estimation target communication record and falls within the “comparison target time” from the date and time of the estimation target communication record. It is also preferable to adopt the determination result of “not stay” as the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result of “not stay” for the “second determination distance”.

  Alternatively, as the estimation result in the estimation target communication record determined as “stay” for the “first determination distance”, the “second determination distance” is larger than the first determination distance in the estimation target communication record. In addition, it has a date and time that exists continuously before or after the estimation target communication record and falls within the “comparison target time” from the date and time of the estimation target communication record. As the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result of “staying” for the “second determination distance”, it is also preferable to adopt the determination result of “noting stay”.

  In addition, it is also preferable that the determination result described above is a “stay movement ratio” described later. Alternatively, it may be simply determined as stay or movement.

  Next, the significance of the determination process in the second stay movement determination unit 112b according to the effect of the present invention will be described below with reference to FIGS.

  FIG. 9 is a graph showing the relationship between the determination distance used for determination, the stay or movement determination rate and the determination success rate in the determination.

  The success rate of stay or movement in the determination shown in FIG. 9 was calculated by setting a determination result based on a result of measuring the position of the mobile terminal 2 using GPS (Global Positioning System) as a true determination result. Specifically, the mobile terminal 2 stays when the change in position (latitude / longitude) due to GPS positioning is within a predetermined distance (for example, 100 m) for at least the GPS positioning time interval (for example, 5 minutes). If not, it is determined to move. Then, using these determination results as true determination results, the determination success rate is calculated as a determination success when the determination result in the present embodiment matches the true determination result, and as a determination failure when different.

  According to FIG. 9, as the determination distance becomes longer, the stay determination rate increases, that is, it becomes easier to determine that the stay is staying, while the movement determination rate decreases, that is, it is difficult to determine that the stay is moving. Further, as the determination distance becomes shorter, the determination success rate in the determination of stay (which is difficult to be determined) increases, that is, the accuracy (accuracy) of stay determination increases. On the other hand, it is understood that the determination success rate in the determination of the movement (which is difficult to be determined) increases as the determination distance becomes longer, that is, the accuracy (accuracy) of the movement determination increases.

  FIG. 10 is a schematic diagram for comparing and explaining determination results using two different determination distances (distances A and B) and actual trends of users. FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram for explaining an embodiment of a stay movement estimation process in the second stay movement determination unit 112b.

  First, it is assumed that the actual staying movement of the user is represented by a determination result by GPS as shown in FIG. Next, the result of stay movement determination using the distance A as the determination distance is shown in FIG. 10B, and the result of stay movement determination using the distance B (B> A) larger than the distance A as the determination distance. Is shown in FIG.

  In the stay movement determination based on the distance A shown in FIG. 10B, the movement determination (outlined circle) is conspicuous even in the immediate vicinity of the base station as compared with the determination result of FIG. Nevertheless, there are communication records that are determined to be mobile. On the other hand, in the stay movement determination based on the distance B shown in FIG. 10 (C), compared with the determination result in FIG. 10 (A), the stay determination (painting) is performed even at a position separated from the base station and aligned in one direction. It can be seen that there is a communication record that is determined to be a stay, despite the fact that there is a crushing circle). As described above, it is understood that the determination result using one determination distance cannot have sufficiently high accuracy for at least one of stay and movement regardless of how the value is set.

  In contrast to these results, according to FIG. 11, the second stay movement determination unit 112 b converts the determination result of FIG. 10B and the determination result of FIG. D) is used to derive an estimation result that substantially matches the true determination result shown in FIG. Thus, according to the present embodiment, the accuracy of the determination is sufficiently high once it is determined to be one by comparing the determination results at different determination distances, but the state that should be determined as such However, a communication record that has not been determined as such can be found, and the determination result can be switched to a state where it should be. This makes it possible to carry out a determination that is more suitable for the communication environment related to the communication record to be determined without being tied to one setting of the determination distance serving as a determination reference, so that the user who has the mobile terminal stays or moves It is possible to estimate the situation with higher accuracy.

  FIG. 12 is a flowchart illustrating an embodiment of the stay movement estimation process in the second stay movement determination unit 112b. In the present embodiment, it is assumed that the stay movement estimation process is performed by using the calculation result of the stay movement ratio using the distance A and the distance part B (B> A) individually as the determination distance.

(S101) A setting file is read.
(S102) The communication records (communication history) are read in chronological order. Here, the record number parameter i is set to zero.
(S103) Increment i by 1.

(S104) It is determined whether or not the “stay movement ratio” at the distance B in the i-th communication record (determination target communication record) is less than one. If a false determination (determination that it is 1) is made, the process proceeds to step S108.
(S105) On the other hand, when true determination (determination that it is less than 1) is performed in step S104, the stay movement ratio of the i-th communication record is determined to be a value at the distance A. Here, the stay movement ratio at the distance A is a value less than 1 indicating movement.

(S106) Continuing before and after the i-th communication record, the i-th communication record has a date and time that is within the comparison target time from the date and time, and the stay movement ratio at the distance A is less than 1. It is determined whether or not a communication record exists. Here, when a false determination (determination that it does not exist) is performed, the process proceeds to step S108.
(S107) On the other hand, when true determination (determination that it exists) is made in step S106, it is continuous before and after the i-th communication record and is within the comparison target time from the date and time of the i-th communication record. The stay movement ratio in the communication record having the date and time and the “stay movement ratio” at the distance A is less than 1 is determined as the value at the distance A.
(S108) It is determined whether or not the i-th communication record is the last record. If the determination is false, the process proceeds to step S103, and the process for the next communication record in time series order is started. On the other hand, when a true determination is made in step S108, the process of the present embodiment in the second stay movement determination unit 112b is terminated.

  FIG. 13 is a table showing another embodiment of the process adopting the variable time width in the comparison target determining unit 111 and the first stay movement determining unit 112a.

  In the process shown in FIG. 13, the same communication records No. 1 to No. 15 used in the process shown in FIG. 8 are used. In the process of FIG. 13, the “maximum distance between base stations” is 1.0 km, while the “maximum distance between base stations” is 5.0 km in the process of FIG. 8 described above. Therefore, in the process shown in FIG. 8, the stay movement ratio is less than 1, that is, the communication records that are determined to be moved are two, No. 7 and No. 9, but in the process of FIG. Since the short “maximum distance between base stations” is adopted, it is easy to determine movement, and there are eight communication records No.1, No.3, and No.5 to No.10 that have been determined as movement. ing.

  FIG. 14 is a table showing an example of stay movement estimation processing in the second stay movement determination unit 112b.

  In the embodiment shown in FIG. 14, the second stay movement determination unit 112b performs the determination result of FIG. 8 (“maximum distance between base stations” = 5.0 km) and the determination result of FIG. 13 (“maximum distance between base stations”). ”= 1.0 km), and the stay movement estimation for each communication record is performed. Hereinafter, the stay movement ratio in FIGS. 8 and 13 is referred to as a stay movement ratio (5 km) and a stay movement ratio (1 km), respectively.

  Specifically, when looking at the communication records in chronological order, in the communication records No. 1 to No. 6, the stay movement ratio (5 km) is 1, that is, the stay determination is made, so the stay movement ratio remains as it is. 1 is determined. Next, in communication record No. 7, since the stay movement ratio (5 km) is 0.875, that is, the movement is determined, the final stay movement ratio is determined to be the stay movement ratio (1 km), that is, 0.5.

  Further, when looking before and after the communication record No. 7, communication records No. 5 and No. 6 which are continuous to the communication record No. 7 and are within the comparison target time (2 minutes 59 seconds) and the communication record No. In No. 8 and No. 9, the stay movement ratio (1 km) is less than 1 as in the communication record No. 7, that is, the movement determination is made. Therefore, the final travel stay ratios in these communication records No. 5, No. 6, No. 8 and No. 9 are determined as these stay travel ratios (1 km), that is, 0.8, 0.75, 0.25 and 0.75, respectively. The

  Further, in the communication record No. 9, the stay movement ratio (5 km) is 0.6, that is, the movement determination is made, so the final stay movement ratio is determined to be the stay movement ratio (1 km), that is, 0.75. Further, when looking before and after the communication record No. 9, communication records No. 7 and No. 8 which are continuous to the communication record No. 9 and within the comparison target time (2 minutes 59 seconds), and the communication record No. In 10, the stay movement ratio (1 km) is less than 1 as in the communication record No. 9, that is, the movement determination is made. Therefore, the final moving stay ratios in these communication records No. 7, No. 8, and No. 10 are determined as these stay moving ratios (1 km), that is, 0.5, 0.25, and 0.75, respectively. Here, in communication records No. 7 and No. 8, the final stay movement ratio is determined to be the same stay movement ratio in the previous process. It may be omitted.

  As a result of performing the processing as described above for the communication records No. 1 to No. 15, it is estimated that the user of the mobile terminal 2 is staying in the communication records No. 1 to No. 4, and then It is estimated that communication records No. 5 to No. 10 are in a moving state, and finally communication records No. 11 to No. 15 are in a staying state.

[Movement speed estimation unit 113]
The moving speed estimation unit 113 (FIG. 2)
(1a) When the determination results of the first stay movement determination unit 112a for the communication records to be estimated for speed are arranged in order of increasing or decreasing “speed estimation distance” applied to the determination, the determination result is Determine the speed estimation distance corresponding to immediately before or after switching from stay to stay, and then
(1b) The result of dividing the determined speed estimation distance with the predetermined time used when determining the communication record to be compared is the moving speed related to the user of the mobile terminal 2 related to the speed estimation target communication record. Estimated.

Here, the “speed estimation distance” in (1a) is a determination distance used in the stay movement determination performed in advance by the first stay movement determination unit 112a, and a plurality of distances are set. Specifically, the first stay movement determination unit 112a applies each of a plurality of “speed estimation distances” individually set for determination before the process in the movement speed estimation unit 113,
(1c) The position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the “speed estimation distance” centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the determination target communication record. In the case where all are included in the specified range, it is determined that the state related to the communication record to be determined is stay for the applied “speed estimation distance”. Also,
(1d) Of the above-mentioned positions indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record, a stay movement ratio that is a ratio included in the above range is calculated, and when the stay movement ratio is less than 1, the applied “speed For the “estimation distance”, the state related to the communication record to be determined is determined to be movement.

The movement form estimation unit 113a (FIG. 2)
(2a) When the determination results of the first stay movement determination unit 112a for the communication records of the movement form estimation target are arranged in order of increasing or decreasing “movement form estimation distance” applied to the determination Determine the movement estimation distance corresponding to the result immediately before or after switching from stay to stay, and then
(2b) When the determined movement form estimation distance is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, the movement form related to the user of the mobile terminal related to the communication record of the movement form estimation target is estimated to be movement by a predetermined movement form, for example, a vehicle .

  Here, the “movement form estimation distance” in (2a) is determined by the first stay movement determination unit 112a in the same manner as the “speed estimation distance” in (1c) and (1d). This is the determination distance used in the case of For example, “speed estimation distance” is adopted as the “movement pattern estimation distance”, and the movement pattern estimation unit 113a performs the movement pattern estimation process using the processing results of (1c) and (1d). preferable.

  Further, the “speed estimation distance” in (1a) and the “movement type estimation distance” in (2a) are “maximum base station distance”, “maximum base station distance” − “subtraction distance”, respectively. , “Maximum base station distance” −2 × “subtraction distance”,..., And “maximum base station distance” − (n−1) × “subtraction distance” (n is a natural number) ) Determination distance. Here, the “maximum base station distance” and the “subtraction distance” are acquired from the setting file management unit 114.

  In addition, as a change mode, after setting “addition distance” in advance, “speed estimation distance” and “movement form estimation distance” are set to “minimum distance of 0 or more”, “minimum distance of 0 or more” + “ It is good also as n determination distance (n is a natural number) produced | generated in the form of "addition distance", ..., and "the minimum distance more than zero" + (n-1) x "addition distance."

  Note that the information on the stay movement ratio, the stay movement estimation result, the movement speed and the movement form estimation result determined by the stay movement estimation unit 112 and the movement speed estimation unit 113 is accumulated in the communication history accumulation unit 102, and the communication interface appropriately. It may be output to the outside via the unit 101. The determined information is preferably output to the application processing unit 131 (FIG. 2) and used for generating a service for each user (mobile terminal 2).

  FIG. 15 is a schematic diagram for explaining a method of estimating the moving speed from the dependency of the determination result on the determination distance.

  FIG. 15A shows the stay movement determination result based on the distances A and B (B> A) shown in FIGS. 10 and 11 again. As described above, the determination result changes depending on the determination distance used for the determination. FIG. 15B is a schematic diagram summarizing the change with the horizontal axis as the determination distance axis. Here, the determination distance on the horizontal axis can be a speed estimation distance or a movement form estimation distance.

  According to FIG. 15 (B), the determination result of stay or movement developed in the time axis (vertical axis) direction at a certain determination distance changes as the determination distance increases. Specifically, the determination result as stay changes in a direction to increase the time width, and the determination result as movement changes in a direction to decrease the time width. In the schematic diagram of FIG. 15B, the determination results based on the distances A and B shown in FIG. 15A correspond to the determination results on the broken lines A and B, respectively.

  Here, in the schematic diagram of FIG. 15B, the horizontal axis (judgment distance axis) is seen in the left direction, that is, the transition of the judgment result at one date and time (communication record) is seen in the direction in which the judgment distance decreases. Try. Accordingly, it is possible to find a determination distance that becomes a boundary where the determination result of the initial stay changes to the determination result of the movement. The movement speed estimation unit 113 estimates the movement speed and movement form of the user of the mobile terminal 2 using the determination distance serving as the boundary.

For example, if the determination distance corresponding to this boundary immediately before switching from stay to movement is 2 km and the comparison target time used for determination is 3 minutes, the moving speed v is
(1) v = 2 [km] / (3/60) [hour] = 40 [km / hour]
It is calculated as follows. In addition, when the movement speed v is 20 km / hour or more and the movement form is set to “movement by vehicle” in advance, the value of the movement speed v calculated as described above is used to determine the movement of the user of the mobile terminal 2. It can be estimated that the movement form is movement by a vehicle.

  FIG. 16 is a flowchart illustrating an embodiment of a moving speed estimation method performed by the moving speed estimation unit 113. In the present embodiment, “maximum base station distance” is initially used as the determination distance (speed estimation distance), and “maximum base station distance” − (n−1) × “subtraction distance” as a whole. It is assumed that n (n is a natural number) distance generated in the form is used.

(S201) A setting file is read.
(S202) The communication records (communication history) are read in chronological order. Here, the record number parameter i is set to zero.
(S203) i is incremented by one.

(S204) It is determined whether or not the subtraction distance can be subtracted from the current determination distance, that is, whether or not the distance value after the subtraction is not less than zero. If a false determination (determination that it is not possible) is made, the process proceeds to step S209.
(S205) On the other hand, if true determination (determination is possible) is made in step S204, whether or not the stay movement ratio at the current determination distance in the i-th communication record is less than 1 (movement). Determine.

(S206) When a false determination (determination that it is not less than 1) is made in step S205, the determination distance is changed to a value obtained by subtracting the subtraction distance from the current value. Then, it returns to step S204 and continues processing.
(S207) On the other hand, if a true determination (determination that it is less than 1) is made in step S205, it is determined whether or not the current determination distance is smaller than the maximum inter-base station distance.

(S208a) When true determination (determination that it is small) is performed in step S207, the moving speed v of the mobile terminal 2 for the date and time related to the i-th communication record is
(2) v = “current judgment distance” / “comparison target time”
To decide.
(S208b) On the other hand, when a false determination (determination that it is not small) is made in step S207, the moving speed v of the mobile terminal 2 for the date and time related to the i-th communication record is
(3) v = “maximum base station distance” / “comparison time”
To decide.

(S209) It is determined whether or not the i-th communication record is the last record. Here, if a false determination is made, the process proceeds to step S203, and the process for the next communication record in time series order is entered. On the other hand, when the true determination is made here, the processing of the present embodiment in the moving speed estimation unit 113 is terminated.

  Thus, according to the moving speed estimation method described above, it is determined whether or not the mobile terminal 2 is in a moving state only by performing processing based on communication information (communication record) that can be acquired by the base station 3. In addition, the moving speed of the mobile terminal 2 can be estimated. Furthermore, since the moving speed for each communication record is estimated, it is also possible to acquire a change in the moving speed of the mobile terminal 2 within the time series range of the date and time of the communication record.

In the embodiment described above, the moving speed is estimated using the determination distance immediately after the change from stay to movement, but as a change mode, using the determination distance immediately before the change from stay to movement, Move speed v
(4) v = (“current determination distance” + “subtraction distance”) / “comparison time”
You may decide to. Furthermore, an intermediate value such as the average of the values calculated by the above equations (2) and (4) can be adopted as the moving speed.

  FIG. 17 is a table showing an example of the movement speed estimation process in the movement speed estimation unit 113.

  FIG. 17 shows an example of movement speed estimation using communication records No. 1 to No. 20 of the mobile terminal ABC. Here, the maximum distance between base stations is 3.0 km and the subtraction distance is 200 m. As a result, the determination distance (speed estimation distance or movement form estimation distance) is 200 m, 400 m,. It is set to 2800m and 3000m. The comparison target time (time window) is 3 minutes. In the table of FIG. 17, “1” indicates that the stay movement ratio is 1, that is, stay, and “0” indicates that the stay movement ratio is less than 1, that is, movement.

  Specifically, since the communication records No. 1 and No. 2 are stays (value 1) for all the determination distances, the moving speed is 0 km / hour. Next, in communication records No. 3 and No. 4, when the determination distance is reduced from 3000 m to 200 m, the stay (value 1) is switched to the movement (value 0). Therefore, the moving speed is 4 (= 0.2 × 60/3) km / hour. Furthermore, in communication records No. 7 to No. 10, the stay (value 1) is switched to the movement (value 0) when the determination distance reaches 2800 m after 3000 m. Therefore, the moving speed is 56 (= 2.8 × 60/3) km / hour.

  In this way, the moving speed can be estimated for each of all communication records No. 1 to No. 20. This also makes it possible to estimate the transition of the moving speed of the mobile terminal ABC in the range related to the date and time of the communication records No. 1 to No. 20. Here, the accuracy of the estimated moving speed can be improved by reducing the subtraction distance, that is, by adopting the determination distance (speed estimation distance) more finely. The size of the subtraction distance to be adopted is determined in consideration of the allowable range in the calculation amount for estimation.

Furthermore, the movement form of the mobile terminal ABC (the user who owns it) can also be estimated from the movement speed acquired in FIG. For example,
(A) If the moving speed is 0, it is “stay”;
(B) When the movement speed is greater than 0 and less than or equal to 20 km / hour, the movement form is “movement on foot”;
(C) When the moving speed is higher than 20 km / hour, the moving form is “movement by vehicle”.
The movement forms are classified in advance as follows. In this case, for example, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 17, communication records No. 1 and No. 2 are stays, communication records No. 3 and No. 4, and communication records No. 18 to No. 20 are by walking. It is estimated that the communication records No. 5 to No. 17 are movements by vehicles.

  Moreover, as a change mode, it is also possible to estimate the movement form based on the determination distance switched from stay to movement instead of the movement speed. For example, when the determination distance for switching from stay to movement when viewed in the direction of decreasing the determination distance is 600 m or more, it is set in advance that the movement form is estimated as “movement by vehicle”. In this case, for example, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 17, in communication records No. 5 to No. 17, it is estimated that the movement form is movement by a vehicle.

  In addition, although the stay movement determination in each determination distance of FIG. 17 is implemented by adopting the variable time width, the above-described movement speed is determined using the determination result implemented by adopting the fixed time width. It is also possible to perform estimation and movement form estimation. In particular, in the process of estimating the movement form based on the determination distance switched from stay to movement, it is more preferable to use a determination result that is implemented using a fixed time width.

  As described above in detail, according to the apparatus, program, and method of the present invention, it is possible to avoid a situation in which the accuracy (accuracy) of stay movement determination is reduced by determining the determination distance to be one, and Since it is possible to perform a determination more suitable for the communication environment related to the target communication record, it is possible to estimate the stay or movement status of the user having the mobile terminal with higher accuracy (accuracy).

  In general, the location information related to the base station included in the communication history that can be acquired by the communication carrier side is coarse in spatial granularity and the time interval is not constant. Nevertheless, according to the present invention, using the location information related to such a base station, on the other hand, estimating the stay or movement state of the user who possesses the mobile terminal without relying on the positioning function of the mobile terminal Can do. In other words, information for estimating the staying movement state of the user with high accuracy can be acquired only by the communication carrier while avoiding the processing load for positioning at the mobile terminal. Further, depending on the embodiment, it is possible to estimate the moving speed of the user and even the moving form.

  Here, as a service provided by estimating the user's stay movement state, movement speed, and movement form, for example, coupon information according to the daily stay movement situation and movement form for the user possessing the mobile terminal, etc. Personalized information providing service that distributes In addition, for example, in the design of base station installation by a telecommunications carrier, it is appropriate to install what kind of base station and where how many based on the acquired stay movement state of the terminal (user). It is also possible to determine whether or not.

  Various changes, modifications, and omissions of the various embodiments of the present invention described above within the scope of the technical idea and the viewpoint of the present invention can be easily made by those skilled in the art. The above description is merely an example, and is not intended to be any limitation. The present invention is limited only by the claims and the equivalents thereof.

1 Communication equipment (stay movement estimation device)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 101 Communication interface part 102 Communication history storage part 111 Comparison object determination part 112 Stay movement estimation part 112a 1st stay movement determination part 112b 2nd stay movement determination part 113 Movement speed estimation part 113a Movement form estimation part 114 Setting file management part 121 base station location information management unit 122 communication record collection unit 123 location information history generation unit 131 application processing unit 2 mobile terminal 3 base station

Claims (12)

An apparatus for estimating stay or movement of a user who has a mobile terminal,
Communication including a plurality of communication records in which, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication is associated with the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores the history;
For each determination target communication record, based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records, a comparison target determination unit that determines a comparison target communication record to be compared for the determination target communication record;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. The first stay movement that determines that the state related to the communication record of the determination target is stay for the applied determination distance when it is included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information A determination means;
As a first determination distance among the different determination distances, as an estimation result in a communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy compared to the case of a second determination distance different from the first determination distance, A stay movement estimation apparatus comprising: a second stay movement determination unit that employs a determination result at the second determination distance of the communication record.   The second stay movement determination means is continuous before or after the communication record for each communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy with respect to the first determination distance in the time series of the plurality of communication records. A communication record that has a date and time that falls within a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record and that is the same as the communication record regarding whether or not the determination result at the second determination distance is stay The stay movement estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein a determination result at the second determination distance is adopted as an estimation result in step (a). The second stay movement determination means includes:
The estimation result at the second determination distance smaller than the first determination distance in the communication record is adopted as the estimation result in the communication record determined not to stay for the first determination distance among the different determination distances. In addition, for each communication record that is determined not to be a stay for the first determination distance, the communication record is continuously present before or after the communication record and is within a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record. Adopt the determination result that is not the stay as the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result that the second determination distance is not a stay and
A determination result at a second determination distance larger than the first determination distance in the communication record is adopted as an estimation result in the communication record determined to be staying for the first determination distance among the different determination distances. In addition, for each communication record that is determined to be staying for the first determination distance, the communication record exists continuously before or after the communication record, and is within a predetermined time range from the date and time of the communication record. The determination result indicating the stay is adopted as the estimation result in the communication record having the determination result indicating that the stay is made for the second determination distance. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to 2. The first stay movement determination means individually applies each of a plurality of preset speed estimation distances to the determination, and the position information of the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record. If the position to be indicated is included in the range defined by the speed estimation distance centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the communication record of the determination target, the applied speed estimation distance is applied to the determination target It is determined that the state related to the communication record is stay,
The stay movement estimation device comprises:
When the determination results for the communication records to be estimated for speed are arranged in order of increasing or decreasing speed estimation distance applied to the determination, the determination result corresponds to immediately before or after switching from stay to stay. The moving speed related to the user of the mobile terminal related to the speed estimation target communication record is obtained by dividing the determined speed estimation distance by the predetermined time used when determining the distance and determining the communication record to be compared. 4. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a movement speed estimation unit that estimates that the movement speed is estimated. The first stay movement determination means applies each of a plurality of preset movement form estimation distances to the determination individually, and position information relating to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record Is included in the range defined by the distance for estimating the movement form centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the communication record of the determination target, the distance for estimating the movement form applied is The state related to the communication record to be determined is determined to be stay,
The stay movement estimation device comprises:
When the determination results for the communication record of the movement form estimation target are arranged in order of increasing or decreasing distance of the movement form estimation applied to the determination, the movement corresponding to immediately before or immediately after the determination result is switched from stay to stay. When the distance for estimating the form is determined, and the determined distance for estimating the moving form is equal to or greater than the predetermined value, the moving form related to the user of the mobile terminal related to the communication record of the moving form estimation target is estimated as the predetermined moving form. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a movement form estimation unit that performs the movement form estimation. The comparison target determining means includes
A communication record having a date and time that is included in a predetermined time range retroactively from the date and time included in one communication record and that corresponds to the date and time immediately before the date and time of the one communication record is the previous communication record. Then, the communication record is sequentially traced starting from the communication record to be determined, the communication record immediately before determined to be staying is sequentially obtained, and the last communication record having no previous communication record determined to be staying is obtained. The communication record of the determination target is included in the time range from the time before the predetermined time of the last communication record to the time after the elapse of the predetermined time of the date and time included in the determination target communication record. 6. The stay movement estimation according to claim 1, wherein a communication record having a date and time to be compared is determined as a comparison target communication record. Apparatus.   The comparison target determining means includes a communication record having a date and time included in a time range from a time before a predetermined time of the date and time included in the communication record to be determined to a time after the predetermined time has elapsed. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the stay movement estimation apparatus is determined as a comparison target communication record.   The first stay movement determination means is centered on the position indicated by the position information related to the determination target communication record among the positions indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record. The ratio of what is included in the range defined by the determination distance is calculated, and the calculated ratio is used as a determination result for the communication record of the determination target. The stay movement estimation apparatus according to claim 1.   In the case where the calculated ratio is a value indicating 100%, the first stay movement determination means indicates the state of the user of the mobile terminal related to the determination target communication record for the applied determination distance. It is determined that there is a stay movement estimation apparatus according to claim 8. It is a communication equipment device which is a stay movement estimating device according to any one of claims 1 to 9 connected to a wide area wireless communication network, and in order to store a communication history in the communication history storage unit,
Base station location information managing means for storing a base station identifier and location information indicating the location of the base station or the location of the mobile terminal derived based on the location in association with each other;
A communication record collecting means for collecting a communication record in which a base station connected to a mobile terminal is associated with a base station identifier of the base station and a date and time related to communication for each mobile terminal;
A communication equipment apparatus, further comprising: a position information history generating means for further associating position information corresponding to a base station identifier for each portable terminal with respect to the communication record using the base station position information management means. A program for causing a computer installed in a stay movement estimation device to estimate stay or movement of a user who has a mobile terminal,
The stay movement estimation device associates, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication with the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores communication history including a plurality of communication records;
The program is
For each determination target communication record, based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records, a comparison target determination unit that determines a comparison target communication record to be compared for the determination target communication record;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. The first stay movement that determines that the state related to the communication record of the determination target is stay for the applied determination distance when it is included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information A determination means;
As a first determination distance among the different determination distances, as an estimation result in a communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy compared to the case of a second determination distance different from the first determination distance, A stay movement estimation program that causes a computer to function as second stay movement determination means that employs a determination result at a second determination distance of the communication record. A method for estimating stay or movement using a stay movement estimation device that estimates stay or movement of a user who has a mobile terminal,
The stay movement estimation device associates, for each mobile terminal, the date and time related to communication with the position of the base station related to communication or position information indicating the position related to the mobile terminal derived based on the position. A communication history storage unit that stores communication history including a plurality of communication records;
The stay movement estimation method includes:
A first step of determining, for each determination target communication record, a comparison target communication record to be compared with respect to the determination target communication record based on the date and time included in the plurality of communication records;
Each of the different determination distances set in advance is individually applied to the determination, and the position indicated by the position information related to the comparison target communication record determined for the determination target communication record is the position related to the determination target communication record. A second step of determining that the state relating to the communication record of the determination target is staying for the applied determination distance when included in the range defined by the determination distance centered on the position indicated by the information; ,
As a first determination distance among the different determination distances, as an estimation result in a communication record having a determination result with higher accuracy compared to the case of a second determination distance different from the first determination distance, And a third step of adopting a determination result at the second determination distance of the communication record.

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