JP6356282B2 - Estimated value calculating apparatus, estimated value calculating method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for calculating an estimated value.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a technique for identifying the position of a device from a signal received by the device from a GPS (Global Positioning System) satellite or a network device is known. Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for specifying the position of a mobile terminal from positioning information obtained using a signal transmitted from a WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) access point. By using such a technique, the number of mobile terminals existing in the target area is specified, and an estimated value of the number of people staying in the target area is calculated from the specified number of mobile terminals and the ownership rate of the mobile terminals. It is possible.

JP 2011-247738 A

  However, in the above technique, for example, when various estimated values are calculated using the number of mobile terminals measured in the target area in a predetermined period, the estimated values may cause a large error from the actual values. is there. For example, since the person (subscriber) who subscribes to the service of the mobile terminal changes differently for each area every day due to various factors (for example, sales start of a new mobile terminal), the initial period in a predetermined period In some cases, subscribers may vary greatly from area to area. For example, there were many subscribers with behavioral characteristics of staying frequently in the target area during the initial period of the predetermined period, but then new mobile phones that were very popular with a specific age group in a specific area. Assume that there are many subscribers with behavioral characteristics that terminals are released and do not stay much in the target area during the final period. In this case, if the transition of the estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area during the predetermined period is calculated using the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the positioning is performed even when the actual number of visitors has not changed. The number is likely to decrease, resulting in a decrease in the estimated number of visitors in the end period compared to the initial period.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and an object thereof is to provide a technique for calculating a more accurate estimated value using positioning information.

  The estimated value calculation apparatus according to the present invention is based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal and is determined to stay in or pass through the target area within the target period, and any area at the target time within the target period. The first portable terminal, which is the portable terminal measured in step 1, is classified into categories set according to the presence or absence of positioning in any area in the initial period and the final period within the target period, and is classified into each category First counting means for calculating the number of the first portable terminals as the number of terminals classified by target area classification, and a second portable terminal that is a portable terminal measured in any area at the target time, the category And the second counting means for calculating the number of the second mobile terminals classified into each category as the total number of terminals by area classification, and the pair based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal. The number of mobile terminals staying in the target area at the time or passing through the target area is specified, and the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification to the total number of the first mobile terminals for each of the categories in the target time Using the first ratio and the second ratio, which is the ratio of the total number of terminals by area classification to the total number of the second mobile terminals, the number of the specified mobile terminals is corrected. And an estimated value calculating means for calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time using the value obtained by the correction.

  The estimated value calculation method according to the present invention is a method implemented in an information processing apparatus having a control unit, wherein the control unit stays in the target area within the target period or the target area based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal. The first portable terminal, which is a portable terminal that is determined to have passed and is measured in any area at the target time within the target period, in any of the initial and final periods within the target period. A first counting step of classifying the first mobile terminals classified into categories set according to the presence or absence of positioning and calculating the number of the first mobile terminals classified into each category as the number of terminals by target area classification; and the control unit However, the second portable terminal that is a portable terminal measured in any area at the target time period is classified into the categories, and the number of the second portable terminals classified into each category, A second counting step of calculating as the number of terminals by area classification, and the control unit specifies the number of mobile terminals staying in or passing through the target area at the target time based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, For each of the categories at the target time, a first ratio that is a ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification to a total number of the first mobile terminals, and a total area for the total number of the second mobile terminals. Using the second ratio that is the ratio of the number of classified terminals, the number of the specified mobile terminals is corrected, and the value obtained by the correction is used to add the target time to the target area. And an estimated value calculating step for calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors.

  The program according to the present invention determines whether a computer has stayed in or passed through the target area within the target period based on the positioning information of the portable terminal, and at any target time within the target period. The first portable terminal, which is the portable terminal measured in step 1, is classified into categories set according to the presence or absence of positioning in any area in the initial period and the final period within the target period, and is classified into each category First counting means for calculating the number of the first portable terminals as the number of terminals classified by target area classification, a second portable terminal that is a portable terminal measured in any area at the target time period, in the category Second counting means for classifying and calculating the number of the second mobile terminals classified into each category as the total number of terminals by area classification, based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal The number of mobile terminals staying in or passing through the target area at the target time is specified, and the number of terminals by target area classification with respect to the total number of the first mobile terminals for each of the categories in the target time Using the first ratio, which is a ratio, and the second ratio, which is the ratio of the number of terminals by area classification to the total number of the second mobile terminals, the correction is made for the number of specified mobile terminals. And an estimated value calculating means for calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time using the value obtained by the correction.

  The program of the present invention can be installed or loaded on a computer through various recording media such as an optical disk such as a CD-ROM, a magnetic disk, and a semiconductor memory, or via a communication network. .

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the technique which calculates a more accurate estimated value using positioning information can be provided.

It is a conceptual diagram which shows the structure of the estimated value calculation system in one Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the estimated value calculation apparatus in one Embodiment. In one Embodiment, it is a figure which shows the structure of the information memorize | stored in the estimated value calculation apparatus. In one Embodiment, it is a figure which shows notionally the transition accompanying progress of the time of the number of the portable terminals which belong to each classification | category. It is a flowchart which shows the process implemented with the estimated value calculation apparatus in one Embodiment. It is a conceptual diagram for demonstrating the calculation method of the correction coefficient in one Embodiment. It is a conceptual diagram for demonstrating the calculation method of the estimated value of the number of visitors of the target area in one Embodiment.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. However, the scope of the invention is not limited to these.

  With reference to FIG. 1, the structure of the estimated value calculation system which concerns on one Embodiment is demonstrated. The estimated value calculation system 1 mainly includes an estimated value calculation device 10 and information processing devices such as a plurality of portable terminals 20. The estimated value calculation device 10 and the plurality of portable terminals 20 can communicate with each other via the network N. In FIG. 1, three mobile terminals 20 are illustrated, but the number of mobile terminals 20 that can communicate with the estimated value calculation apparatus 10 is arbitrary.

  The estimated value calculation device 10 specifies the number of mobile terminals 20 existing in the target area using the positioning information of the mobile terminal 20, and estimates the number of visitors in the target area from the number of specified mobile terminals 20. Various estimated values are calculated.

  The estimated value calculation device 10 mainly includes a control unit 11, a communication unit 14, and a storage unit 15 as a hardware configuration. The control unit 11 mainly includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 12 and a memory 13. The estimated value calculation device 10 can be realized by using an information processing device such as a dedicated or general-purpose server computer. For example, the CPU 12 executes various programs by executing a predetermined program stored in the memory 13 or the like. It functions as a function realization means. The estimated value calculation device 10 may be configured by a single information processing device or may be configured by a plurality of information processing devices distributed on a network.

  In the control unit 11, the CPU 12 controls the operation of various components included in the estimated value calculation device 10 by developing the program stored in the storage unit 15 or the like in the memory 13 and executing it, and executes various processes. To control. Details of processing executed in the control unit 11 will be described later.

  The communication unit 14 is a communication interface for communicating with various information processing apparatuses such as the mobile terminal 20 via the network N. For example, the communication unit 14 receives positioning information from the mobile terminal 20.

  The storage unit 15 is configured by a storage device such as a hard disk. The storage unit 15 stores various programs and various information necessary for execution of processing in the control unit 11. Specific examples of information stored in the storage unit 15 will be described later.

  The network N is a communication line for transmitting and receiving information between the estimated value calculation device 10 and the mobile terminal 20. For example, it may be any of the Internet, a LAN, a dedicated line, a packet communication network, a telephone line, a corporate network, other communication lines, combinations thereof, and the like, regardless of whether they are wired or wireless.

  The mobile terminal 20 is, for example, an information terminal having a function of uploading positioning information obtained by measuring the current position at a predetermined time interval, such as a mobile phone, a smartphone, a PDA (Personal Digital Assistants), a navigation device, and a personal computer. Can do. Although not shown, the portable terminal 20 mainly includes various function realizing means such as a main control unit, a communication unit, a display unit, an operation unit, a storage unit, and a positioning processing unit.

  With reference to FIG. 2, the functional configuration of the estimated value calculation apparatus 10 according to an embodiment will be described. The estimated value calculating apparatus 10 mainly includes a target area terminal number counting unit 111, an all area terminal number counting unit 112, an estimated value calculating unit 113, and a database 120 as functional configurations. These functions are realized by, for example, the control unit 11 having the CPU 12 develop and execute a program stored in the storage unit 15 or the like in the memory 13.

  The target area terminal number counting unit 111 refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120, and determines that the target area stayed or passed through the target area within the target period (or the target The mobile terminal 20 (first mobile terminal) that has been measured in the target area within the period and has been positioned in any area at the target time within the target period is specified. In addition, the determination of the mobile terminal 20 staying in the target area within the target period may be performed by referring to the positioning information, for example, with respect to the mobile terminal 20 whose stay time and the number of positioning times in the target period are equal to or greater than a predetermined value. Do by identifying. The determination of the mobile terminal 20 that has passed through the target area within the target period is performed by referring to, for example, the positioning information, and the staying time in the target area within the target period is equal to or less than a predetermined value and the number of positioning times is predetermined. This is done by identifying the mobile terminal 20 that is greater than or equal to the value. The target area terminal number counting unit 111 further classifies the identified mobile terminal 20 according to the classification (category) of the mobile terminal 20 set according to the presence or absence of positioning in any of the initial and final areas within the target period. ) And the number of mobile terminals 20 for each classification is calculated as the number of terminals by target area classification. The target area terminal number counting unit 111 stores, in the database 120, the number of terminals by target area classification calculated for each classification. Note that, in the above, the condition that it is determined that the user stayed in or passed through the target area within the target period is not limited to this, and the mobile terminal that has been positioned even once in the target area within the target period Other conditions may be used as long as the predetermined condition of 20 is satisfied.

  Here, an area is a plurality of divided areas obtained by dividing a map based on latitude and longitude, and the shape and size of the divided areas can be appropriately set according to specifications and designs. For example, the shape of the mesh region can be a region surrounded by a polygon such as a quadrangle, a hexagon, a rhombus, or a curve such as a circle. Also, the size of the area may not be constant. For example, the urban area may be made smaller (finer). Further, the area may be shaped as an administrative division. In addition, the demographic information can be used to change the area size for each region (for example, to reduce the area of a region with a large population), the classification of municipalities, the type of residential land, the information on the daily life area (daily life area), etc. The size may be set based on this. The same applies to the areas in the following description. Information on the set area is stored in the database 120 together with the map information.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of positioning information stored in the database 120. In this example, the positioning information includes a positioning time that is a time when the mobile terminal 20 is positioned, a terminal device ID that is identification information of the mobile terminal 20, and a positioning position (latitude and longitude) that is a position where the mobile terminal 20 is positioned. ) Information.

The classification (category) of the mobile terminal 20 set according to the presence / absence of positioning in any area in the initial period and the final period in the target period can be set by an arbitrary method. For example, the classification can include at least one of the following patterns.
Pattern A: The mobile terminal 20 that has positioning at the beginning of the target period and does not have positioning at the end.
Pattern B: The mobile terminal 20 that has positioning at the beginning of the target period and positioning at the end.
Pattern C: The mobile terminal 20 that has no positioning at the beginning of the target period and has positioning at the end.
Pattern D: The mobile terminal 20 that has no positioning at the beginning of the target period and has no positioning at the end.

  FIG. 4 conceptually shows the transition of the number of measured mobile terminals 20 over time for each classification of pattern A to pattern D described above. As shown in FIG. 4, the number of mobile terminals 20 belonging to the pattern A decreases with the passage of time, and becomes 0 at the end of the target period. The number of the portable terminals 20 belonging to the pattern B becomes substantially the same value throughout the entire target period. The number of mobile terminals 20 belonging to the pattern C is 0 at the beginning of the target period, but increases with the passage of time. The number of mobile terminals 20 belonging to the pattern D is 0 in the initial period and the final period, but increases or decreases in the period between them.

  The total area terminal number counting unit 112 in FIG. 2 refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120, and for each of the above classifications of the mobile terminal 20, any area ( For example, the number of portable terminals 20 (second portable terminals) measured in any area in the whole country is calculated as the number of terminals classified by all areas. The total area terminal number counting unit 112 stores in the database 120 the number of terminals by all area classification calculated for each classification.

  The estimated value calculation unit 113 refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120, and the calculation results by the target area terminal number counting unit 111 and the total area terminal number counting unit 112, and the target period The estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time is calculated. Specifically, the estimated value calculation unit 113 first refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120 and stays in or passes through the target area at the target time in the target period. The number of portable terminals 20 (or the number of portable terminals 20 measured in the target area at the target time in the target period) is specified. The estimated value calculation unit 113 corrects the number of the specified mobile terminals 20, and uses the value obtained by the correction to calculate an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time. To do. The correction is based on the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification (first ratio) to the total number of the first mobile terminals for each of the classifications in the target time period, and the terminal by all area classifications with respect to the total number of the second mobile terminals. This is performed using a ratio of numbers (second ratio). In addition, the correction further uses, for each of the above classifications, a ratio between the number of terminals classified by all areas at the initial period in the target period and the number of terminals classified by all areas at the target period during the target period. It can also be done. A specific example of the correction process for the number of specified mobile terminals 20 and the calculation of the estimated number of visitors will be described later. The estimated value calculation unit 113 stores information on the calculated estimated number of visitors in the database 120.

  The database 120 stores various types of information such as information necessary for the above-described processing executed in the estimated value calculation apparatus 10 and information generated by the processing. The database 120 stores, for example, positioning information, map information, terminal number information by target area classification, terminal number information by all area classification, and estimated value information.

  Next, a specific example of the flow of processing executed in the estimated value calculation apparatus 10 will be described with reference to FIGS. Each processing step included in the processing flow described below can be executed in any order or in parallel as long as there is no contradiction in the processing contents. Steps may be added. Further, a step described as one step for convenience can be executed by being divided into a plurality of steps, while a step described as being divided into a plurality of steps for convenience can be grasped as one step. Each processing step is performed under the control of the control unit 11.

  Here, staying in the target area in each of a plurality of target periods in the target period using the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been positioned in the target period, from January 2011 to December 2012. An example of processing for calculating the estimated number of persons will be described.

  First, in step S11 of FIG. 5, the target area terminal number counting unit 111 refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120, and stays in the target area or sets the target area within the target period. The mobile terminal 20 that is determined to have passed (or is measured at least once in the target area within the target period) and is positioned in any area at the target time within the target period is specified. The target area terminal number counting unit 111 further determines the specified mobile terminal 20 for each classification of the mobile terminal 20 set according to the presence or absence of positioning in any of the initial and final areas within the target period. Classification is performed, and the number of mobile terminals 20 for each classification is calculated as the number of terminals by target area classification. As the classification, for example, the pattern A to the pattern D can be included.

  6A to 6C, when the target period is set from January 2011 to December 2012, the target area classification-specific terminals calculated for each classification by the target area terminal number counting unit 111 An example of a number will be described.

  First, referring to FIG. 6 (A), the target for each classification of the mobile terminal 20 calculated by the target area terminal number counting unit 111 when the target time of the estimated value calculation in the target period is January 2011. An example of the number of terminals by area classification will be described. FIG. 6 (A) shows that there is positioning at the beginning of the target period (January 2011) in any of the mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period (2012). It is shown that the number of mobile terminals 20 with a pattern A (no number of terminals by target area classification) having no positioning in December is 4000. In addition, among the mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period, in any area, the number of pattern B mobile terminals 20 that have positioning at the beginning of the target period and positioning at the end (target area) The number of terminals by classification) is 6000. In the example of FIG. 6 (A), since the target time is January 2011, which is the initial period of the target period, the target areas corresponding to the above-described pattern C and pattern D, which are classifications without positioning at the initial period of the target period. The number of classified terminals is zero.

  With reference to FIG. 6B, an example of the number of terminals by target area classification for each classification of the mobile terminal 20 calculated when the target time in the target period is August 2011 will be described. FIG. 6B shows that the number of terminals classified by target area classification of pattern A is 2300 out of the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period. Note that when the user of the mobile terminal 20 cancels the contract of the mobile terminal 20, the positioning information of the mobile terminal 20 cannot be obtained. Therefore, in the case of Pattern A, the example of FIG. 6B in which the target time is a time after January 2011 compared to the case of FIG. 6A in which the target time is January 2011. There are fewer terminals by target area classification.

  Further, FIG. 6B shows that the number of terminals classified by target area classification of pattern B is 6000 out of the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period. Note that the pattern B is targeted for the mobile terminal 20 that has positioning at the beginning of the target period and has positioning at the end, and therefore, throughout the target period (for example, the example of FIG. 6A and FIG. In the example of B), the number of terminals by target area classification does not change.

  Further, FIG. 6B shows, among the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period, by the target area classification of pattern C in which there is no positioning at the beginning of the target period and positioning at the end. It is shown that the number of terminals is 1300. In addition, since the mobile terminal 20 may be newly contracted by the user, the number of terminals classified by target area classification of the pattern C increases with the passage of time. Further, FIG. 6B shows, among the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period, by the target area classification of the pattern D that has no positioning at the beginning of the target period and has no positioning at the end. It is shown that the number of terminals is 1500.

  With reference to FIG. 6C, an example of the number of terminals by target area classification for each classification of the mobile terminal 20 calculated when the target time in the target period is December 2012 will be described. FIG. 6C shows that among the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period, the number of terminals classified by target area classification of pattern B is 6000. FIG. 6C shows that the number of terminals classified by target area classification of pattern C is 2000 out of the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured even once in the target area within the target period. In addition, since the target time is December 2012, which is the end of the target period, the number of terminals by target area classification of pattern A and pattern D is zero.

  Next, in step S <b> 12 of FIG. 5, the total area terminal number counting unit 112 refers to the positioning information and map information of the mobile terminal 20 stored in the database 120, for each of the above classifications of the mobile terminal 20. The number of mobile terminals 20 measured in any area (for example, any area in the whole country) at the time is calculated as the total number of terminals classified by area classification.

  With reference to FIGS. 6A to 6C, an example of the number of terminals by all area classification calculated by the all area terminal number counting unit 112 for each classification will be described. First, in FIG. 6A, when the target time in the target period is set to January 2011, the number of mobile terminals 20 (number of terminals by all area classification) measured in any area at the target time is It is shown that the pattern A is 200,000 and the pattern B is 500,000. In FIG. 6B, the total number of terminals classified by area classification when the target time is August 2011 is 140,000 for pattern A, 500,000 for pattern B, and 120,000 for pattern C. The pattern D is shown to be 60,000. FIG. 6C shows that the number of terminals classified by area classification when the target time is December 2012 is 500,000 for pattern B and 300,000 for pattern C.

  Next, in step S13 of FIG. 5, the estimated value calculation unit 113 uses the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification and the ratio of the number of terminals by all area classification calculated for each classification in steps S11 and S12. A correction coefficient for calculating the estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the time is calculated. In the correction coefficient, the ratio of the number of mobile terminals 20 for each of the above classifications is based on the ratio of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured in the target area (that is, the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification for each of the above classifications). Assuming that the proportion of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured in any area (that is, the proportion of the number of terminals for each category for each category) is closer to the actual measurement value. This is a coefficient for correcting the number of mobile terminals 20 that have been measured in the target area at the time as described later.

  As a specific example of the correction coefficient calculation method, first, in the example of FIG. 6A in which January 2011, which is the initial period in the target period, is the target time, the calculation is performed as follows. In this example, the ratio of the pattern A is 40% (= 4000 / (4000 + 6000) × 100) in the number of terminals by target area classification. Moreover, the ratio of the pattern A is 28.56% (= 200000 / (200000 + 500000) × 100) in the total number of terminals classified by area classification. At this time, for the pattern A, the estimated value calculation unit 113 sets the correction coefficient to 0.714 (= the ratio of the number of terminals classified by all areas of pattern A / the ratio of the number of terminals classified by target area classification of pattern A = 28.56%). / 40%). That is, the estimated value calculation unit 113 calculates a correction coefficient using a ratio between the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification for each classification and the ratio of the number of terminals by total area classification.

  Similarly, regarding pattern B, the ratio of pattern B is 60% (= 6000 / (4000 + 6000) × 100) in the number of terminals by target area classification, and the ratio of pattern B in the total number of terminals by area classification Is 71.43% (= 500000 / (200000 + 500000) × 100). At this time, the estimated value calculation unit 113 calculates the correction coefficient for pattern B as 1.191 (= 71.43% / 60%).

  In the case of the example of FIG. 6B in which the target time is August 2011 when a certain time has elapsed from the start of the target period, for example, the correction coefficient is calculated as follows. In this example, in addition to the above assumption, the rate of increase / decrease in the number of mobile terminals 20 due to the contract or cancellation of the mobile terminal 20 by the user with the passage of time from the beginning of the target period is also measured in the target area. The ratio of increase / decrease in the number of mobile terminals 20 due to the contract or cancellation of the mobile terminal 20 that has been measured in any area rather than the ratio in a certain mobile terminal 20 (that is, the increase / decrease in the number of mobile terminals 20 in all areas) The correction coefficient is calculated on the assumption that the ratio) is closer to the correct value.

  First, in order to calculate the correction coefficient according to the above new premise, the mobile terminal 20 that has been positioned in the target area among the mobile terminals 20 (total number of terminals classified by all areas) that have been positioned in any area. With respect to the ratio of the terminals 20 (the total number of terminals by target area classification), the ratio between the initial period of the target period and the target period is calculated by the following equation 1.

  (Total number of terminals by initial target area classification / Total number of terminals by initial all area classification) / (Total number of terminals by target area classification at target period / Total number of terminals by total area classification at target period)・ ・ (Formula 1)

  That is, the calculation according to Equation 1 uses a ratio between the initial number of terminals classified by all area classifications during the target period and the number of terminals classified by all area classifications during the target period.

The result of calculation according to Equation 1 in the case of the example in FIG. 6B is as follows.
((4000 + 6000) / (200000 + 500000)) / ((2300 + 6000 + 1300 + 1500) / (140000 + 500000 + 120,000 + 60000)) = 1.06

  The pattern in the example of FIG. 6B is obtained by multiplying the calculation result obtained by Equation 1 thus obtained and the correction coefficient calculated by the same method as in the example of FIG. 6A. For each of A and pattern B, the correction coefficient can be calculated as follows.

Pattern A:
1.06 (140000 / (140000 + 500000 + 120,000 + 60000)) / (2300 / (2300 + 6000 + 1300 + 1500)) = 0.873

Pattern B:
1.06 (500000 / (14,000 + 500000 + 120,000 + 60000)) / (6000 / (2300 + 6000 + 1300 + 1500)) = 1.196

  Further, since there is no initial positioning of the mobile terminal 20 for the pattern C and the pattern D, the correction coefficient is calculated as follows by the same method as in the example of FIG.

Pattern C:
(120,000 / (140000 + 500000 + 120,000 + 60000)) / (1300 / (2300 + 6000 + 1300 + 1500)) = 1.325

Pattern D:
(60000 / (140000 + 500000 + 120,000 + 60000)) / (1500 / (2300 + 6000 + 1300 + 1500)) = 0.573

  The correction coefficient in the example of FIG. 6C can be calculated as follows by the same method as in the example of FIG.

First, the calculation result by Formula 1 is as follows.
((4000 + 6000) / (200000 + 500000)) / ((6000 + 2000) / (500000 + 300000)) = 1.43

The calculation result of the correction coefficient is as follows.
Pattern B:
1.43 (500000 (500000 + 300000)) / (6000 / (6000 + 2000)) = 1.19

Pattern C:
1.43 (300000 (500000 + 300000)) / (2000 / (6000 + 2000)) = 2.15

  Next, in step S14 of FIG. 5, the estimated value calculation unit 113 refers to the positioning information stored in the database 120 and stays in the target area or passes through the target area at the target time in the target period. (Or the number of mobile terminals 20 positioned in the target area at the target time in the target period) is specified, and the specified number is corrected using the correction coefficient calculated in step S13. The estimated value calculation unit 113 calculates an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time by dividing the value obtained by the correction by the possession ratio of the mobile terminal 20 in all areas. That is, the estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time is calculated by the following formula 2.

  Estimated number of visitors in the target area at the target time = number of mobile terminals measured in the target area at the target time × correction coefficient ÷ portrait ratio of the mobile terminal (Equation 2)

  With reference to FIG. 7, the specific example of the calculation method of the estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area of the target time in the case of the example of FIG. 6 is demonstrated.

First, in the example of FIGS. 6 (A) and 7 (A) in which the target time is January 2011, the total number of terminals 20 by all area classifications in the target time is 700,000 (= 200,000 + 500,000). Therefore, assuming that the population of Japan is 130 million, the possession ratio of the mobile terminal 20 in the target period is as follows.
700,000 / 130000000 = 1 / 185.71

At this time, as shown in FIG. 7A, when the number of mobile terminals 20 of the pattern A measured in the target area at the target time is 66, the estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area of the target time is It is as follows.
66 x 0.714 x 185.71 = 8751.6 (person)

Further, when the number of pattern B mobile terminals 20 measured in the target area at the target time is 68, the estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area at the target time is as follows.
68 x 1.071 x 185.71 = 13127.4 (person)

From the above, the estimated value of the total number of visitors in the target area whose target time is January 2011 is the sum of the estimated values of pattern A and pattern B, and is as follows.
8751.6 + 13127.4 = 21879 (people)

Next, in the example of FIGS. 6B and 7B in which the target time is August 2011, the total number of terminals by all area classifications in the target time is 820,000 (= 140,000 + 500,000 + 12). Therefore, the possession ratio of the mobile terminal 20 in the target period is as follows.
820000/130000000 = 1 / 158.54

At this time, as shown in FIG. 7B, when the number of mobile terminals 20 of the pattern A measured in the target area at the target time is 35, the estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area at the target time is It is as follows.
35 x 0.873 x 158.54 = 4846.5 (person)

Similarly, as shown in FIG. 7B, when the numbers of the mobile terminals 20 of the patterns B, C, and D measured in the target area at the target time are 70, 24, and 18, respectively, The estimated number of visitors in the target area is as follows.
Pattern B: 70 × 1.196 × 158.54 = 1329.2 (person)
Pattern C: 24 × 1.325 × 158.54 = 4756.32 (person)
Pattern D: 18 × 0.573 × 158.54 = 1543.86 (person)

From the above, the estimated value of the total number of visitors in the target area whose target time is August 2011 is the sum of the estimated values of pattern A to pattern D, and is as follows.
4846.5 + 13269.2 + 475.32 + 1543.86 = 24416 (person)

Next, in the example of FIGS. 6C and 7C in which the target time is December 2012, the total number of terminals by all area classifications in the target time is 800,000 (= 500,000 + 300,000). Therefore, the possession ratio of the portable terminal 20 at the target time is as follows.
800,000 / 130000000 = 1 / 162.5

At this time, as shown in FIG. 7C, when the numbers of the mobile terminals 20 of the patterns B and C measured in the target area at the target time are 64 and 40, respectively, the visitors in the target area at the target time The estimated number is as follows.
Pattern B: 64 × 1.43 × 162.5 = 12763.1 (person)
Pattern C: 40 × 1.43 × 162.5 = 13127.4 (person)

From the above, the estimated value of the total number of visitors in the target area whose target time is December 2012 is the sum of the estimated values of pattern B and pattern C, and is as follows.
12763.1 + 13127.4 = 25891 (person)

  As described above, according to the present embodiment, the number of terminals by target area classification calculated for each classification of the mobile terminal 20 set according to the time when positioning is performed once in any area within the target period. Then, using the total number of terminals classified by area classification, the number of mobile terminals 20 measured in the target area at the target time is corrected, and an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area at the target time is calculated. In the correction, the ratio of the number of mobile terminals 20 for each classification is higher than the ratio in the mobile terminals 20 that have been measured in the target area (that is, the ratio of the number of terminals by target area classification for each classification). The ratio of the mobile terminals 20 that have been measured in any area (that is, the ratio of the number of terminals for each area classification for each classification) is assumed to be closer to the actually measured value. As a result, an estimated value such as an estimated value of the number of visitors to the target area calculated using the positioning information can be calculated more appropriately.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and can be implemented in various other forms without departing from the gist of the present invention. The above-described embodiment is merely an example in all respects, and is not construed as limiting.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Estimated value calculation system, 10 Estimated value calculation apparatus, 11 Control part, 12 CPU, 13 Memory, 14 Communication part, 15 Storage part, 20 Portable terminal

Claims (6)

Based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the first mobile terminal that is a mobile terminal that is positioned in the target area within the target period is classified according to the positioning pattern set according to the time of the target period, and is classified The number of the first mobile terminals is calculated as the number of terminals by target area classification, and the second mobile terminals that are mobile terminals positioned in any area during the target period are classified for each positioning pattern , The number of classified second mobile terminals is calculated as the total number of terminals classified by area, and is a ratio of the number of terminals classified by target area classification to the total number of classified first portable terminals. 1 and the second ratio, which is the ratio of the number of terminals classified by total area to the total number of classification of the second portable terminals, and the number of the first portable terminals Correct the Estimate calculation device comprising an estimation value calculating means for calculating the estimated value of the residents number to the target area of the target period with the values obtained by the correction. Based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the number of the first mobile terminals in the target area within the target period is calculated for each pattern set according to the presence or absence of the positioning information in the predetermined period of the target period, and the positioning of the mobile terminal Based on the information, the number of second mobile terminals in a plurality of areas including the target area in the target period is calculated for each pattern, and the total number of the second mobile terminals totaled for the plurality of patterns Using at least the ratio of the second mobile terminal for each pattern, the number of the first mobile terminals for each pattern is corrected, and the estimated number of visitors in the target area is calculated from the corrected number of mobile terminals. An estimated value calculating apparatus comprising estimated value calculating means for calculating. Based on positioning information of the mobile terminal, and a number of mobile terminals in a plurality of areas including the target area in the number and the period of the mobile terminal in the target area in the target period, respectively, depending on the timing of the period Calculated for each positioning pattern set in the above, and using the value obtained by the number of mobile terminals for each of the calculated positioning patterns and the total number of mobile terminals totaled for the plurality of positioning patterns, in the target area An estimated value calculating apparatus comprising an estimated value calculating means for correcting the number of mobile terminals and calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area from the corrected number of mobile terminals. Based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the number of mobile terminals in the target area within the target period and the number of mobile terminals in the plurality of areas including the target area within the target period are measured at the predetermined time of the target period. Calculated for each pattern set according to the presence or absence of, and using the value obtained by the number of mobile terminals for each of the calculated patterns and the total number of mobile terminals totaled for the plurality of patterns , the target area An estimated value calculating device comprising an estimated value calculating means for correcting the number of mobile terminals in the computer and calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area. Based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the number of mobile terminals in the target area within the target period and the number of mobile terminals in the plurality of areas including the target area within the target period are measured at the predetermined time of the target period. Calculated for each pattern set according to the presence or absence of, and using the value obtained by the number of mobile terminals for each of the calculated patterns and the total number of mobile terminals totaled for the plurality of patterns , the target area A control method for controlling a computer so as to correct the number of portable terminals and calculate an estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area. Based on the positioning information of the mobile terminal, the number of mobile terminals in the target area within the target period and the number of mobile terminals in the plurality of areas including the target area within the target period are measured at the predetermined time of the target period. using the function of calculating for each set pattern in response to the presence or absence of, the number of mobile terminals for each of the patterns the calculated, the value determined by the total number of mobile terminal the sum for a plurality of said pattern, said A program for causing a computer to realize a function of correcting the number of mobile terminals in a target area and calculating an estimated value of the number of visitors in the target area.

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