JP6258900B2 - Communication band calculation device, communication band calculation method, and communication band calculation program - Google Patents

Description

  In the communication service shared by a plurality of users, the present invention applies a characteristic traffic model in order for the communication equipment provided by the communication service provider to continuously maintain a certain quality of service. This is related to the technology that appropriately calculates the amount of equipment.

  Conventionally, a communication service provider defines a QoS (Quality of Service) as a communication service quality required by a user using a communication service provided via a communication network. We design, operate, and manage communication networks that can be achieved. Therefore, the communication service provider forms a characteristic value related to the traffic of the communication service, for example, an average traffic amount passing through each communication facility at a preset time interval, or a connection to watch in the communication service. By measuring the maximum burst size that can be measured for the flow of IP packets, etc., the traffic volume and traffic characteristics of the communication service are evaluated, and the design, operation, and management of a communication network that can achieve the required QoS. It is carried out.

  For telephony communication services, technologies for predicting future traffic volume using statistics of observed time-series traffic data and designing, operating, and managing the facility volume required in the future are, for example, It is described in Patent Document 1.

  Communication services provided mainly to corporate users are contracted in advance between the user and the communication service provider, and can be freely used within the communication network, with the amount of communication traffic below the value specified in the contract as the user bandwidth. It is a communication service that enables In this communication service, a plurality of companies and individuals share and use the bandwidth of the communication facility in order to reduce the cost of using the user, and this communication service is referred to as “bandwidth sharing communication service” in this specification. I will decide.

  If a communication service provider providing a shared bandwidth communication service can accommodate a large number of users for a communication facility with a physically limited bandwidth, a large business profit can be obtained in proportion to it. . Since the user band in the above example corresponds to the maximum communication band that is allowed to communicate in the communication network based on the contract, the amount of communication traffic that is actually transmitted and received is less than the user band. Therefore, the total of user bandwidths that can be accommodated in a communication facility can exceed the sum of the user bandwidths more than the physical bandwidth of the communication facility.

  However, since the user band is excessively accommodated, even if the traffic amount constantly changing is instantaneous, if the physical band of the communication facility is exceeded, the communication quality deteriorates.

  Therefore, the communication service provider can accommodate as many users as possible with respect to the communication facilities of physically limited bands while appropriately avoiding quality degradation, that is, the total of user bands to be accommodated. Therefore, there is a need for a communication bandwidth calculation method that can accommodate the physical bandwidth of communication facilities and maximize business profit.

  Related to and similar to the provision of the shared bandwidth communication service, there are technologies disclosed in Patent Documents 1 to 3 as technologies related to calculation and management of communication bandwidth including traffic prediction in the future design target period.

JP 2009-206698 A JP 2009-218820 A JP 2011-130330 A

Hiromichi Kawano et al., “Traffic Prediction Method for Macro Analysis and its Evaluation”, IEICE B, Vol. J82-B, no. 6, pp. 1107-1114, June 1999

  The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and calculates the amount of equipment that can accommodate a larger number of users without reducing service quality in a limited band in a band sharing communication service. The purpose is to provide a technology that makes it possible.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, a communication band calculation device that calculates a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing communication service,
Network information collection means for periodically acquiring traffic from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on the traffic amount acquired periodically, it is determined whether the traffic state in the communication line is in a traffic growth period or a traffic stable period, according to a necessary bandwidth calculation method corresponding to the determined state , e Bei the necessary bandwidth calculation means for calculating the necessary bandwidth of the communication line before Symbol design target period,
The required bandwidth calculating means calculates the required bandwidth using the traffic utilization rate and the expected utilization rate when the traffic state is determined to be in a traffic growth period, and the traffic state is a traffic stable period. A communication band calculating device that calculates the necessary band using the moving average and moving standard deviation of the past predetermined number of days nearest to the traffic volume .

Further, according to the embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a communication band calculating device for calculating a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing type communication service.
Network information collection means for periodically acquiring traffic from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on user information having user bandwidth and opening date for each user, a set of users is grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date in the design target period, and the traffic growth period according to the number of days elapsed since the opening date Based on the hypothesis of shifting to a traffic stable period, the expected utilization rate is used to determine a stepwise expected utilization rate that is a stepwise expected utilization rate corresponding to the grouping. There is provided a communication band calculation device comprising: necessary band calculation means for calculating a required band of the communication line using a total user band in a group of each grouped user.

In addition, according to the embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a communication band calculation method executed by a communication band calculation device that calculates a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing communication service. ,
A network information collecting step for periodically obtaining a traffic volume from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating step for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on the traffic amount acquired periodically, it is determined whether the traffic state in the communication line is in a traffic growth period or a traffic stable period, according to a necessary bandwidth calculation method corresponding to the determined state , e Bei the necessary bandwidth calculation step of calculating the necessary bandwidth of the communication line before Symbol Symbol design goal period,
In the required bandwidth calculating step, when the communication bandwidth calculating device determines that the traffic state is in a traffic growth period, the communication bandwidth calculating device calculates the required bandwidth using the traffic usage rate and the expected usage rate, and Provided is a communication band calculation method for calculating the necessary band by using a moving average and a moving standard deviation of the past predetermined number of days nearest to the traffic volume when it is determined that the traffic state is in a traffic stable period .

In addition, according to the embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a communication band calculation method executed by a communication band calculation device that calculates a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing communication service. ,
A network information collecting step for periodically obtaining a traffic volume from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating step for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on user information having user bandwidth and opening date for each user, a set of users is grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date in the design target period, and the traffic growth period according to the number of days elapsed since the opening date Based on the hypothesis of shifting to a traffic stable period, the expected utilization rate is used to determine a stepwise expected utilization rate that is a stepwise expected utilization rate corresponding to the grouping. There is provided a communication band calculation method comprising: a necessary band calculation step of calculating a necessary band of the communication line using a total user band in a group of users grouped.

  According to the embodiment of the present invention, in a shared bandwidth communication service, it is possible to calculate a facility amount that can accommodate a larger number of users without degrading service quality within a limited bandwidth. Is provided.

It is explanatory drawing of a single traffic model. It is explanatory drawing of a multiple traffic model. It is a whole block diagram which shows the structure of the communication band calculation apparatus 10 which concerns on embodiment of this invention. 2 is a configuration example of a band sharing type communication facility 30. It is a structural example of a accommodation line. 6 is a flowchart showing a first example of necessary bandwidth calculation processing of the arithmetic processing unit 16. FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the 1st example of a structure of the required zone | band calculation part 16C. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of observation period optimization part 16D. It is a flowchart which shows the process of observation period optimization part 16D. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a second example of necessary bandwidth calculation processing of the arithmetic processing unit 16. It is a block diagram which shows the 2nd example of a structure of the required zone | band calculation part 16C.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention (hereinafter also referred to as “the present embodiment”) will be described with reference to the drawings. The embodiment described below is only an example, and the embodiment to which the present invention is applied is not limited to the following embodiment. For example, as will be described below, in the present embodiment, various mathematical expressions are used for calculating the necessary bandwidth, but these mathematical expressions are examples and are not limited to these mathematical expressions.

(Outline of the embodiment)
In the shared bandwidth communication service according to the present embodiment, the “user bandwidth” that is the maximum bandwidth that does not exceed the amount of traffic that can be communicated as the entire communication service used by each user and the date on which the service starts to be used are predetermined. Information including all user bands and use start dates is referred to as “user information”. The “user bandwidth” may be referred to as “contract bandwidth”, and the “use start date” may be referred to as “opening date”.

  Note that the “user information” includes, for example, information related to a contract between a user and a communication service provider (user band, contracted use start date, etc.). The present invention is not limited to the communication service related to the contract, and the present invention can be widely applied to communication services other than the communication service related to the contract.

  In the present embodiment, a communication band calculation device (e.g., communication band calculation device 10 to be described later) relates to a user who shares a communication facility of a band sharing service that is a management design target (hereinafter, a band sharing communication facility). In addition to “user information”, “network information”, which is information related to the communication network in which the shared bandwidth communication facility functions as a device, and “traffic information”, which is history information of the traffic volume observed from the past to the design time ”As input information, a bandwidth that satisfies the“ quality regulation ”that is an acceptable quality degradation risk and that can communicate the predicted traffic volume in the future design target period is calculated. More specifically, the band is a band that can absorb short-time fluctuations as described below. This band is called “necessary band”.

  Here, an outline of the “required bandwidth” will be described. Since the observed traffic volume is only the average traffic volume during the traffic observation period, there is an instantaneous large fluctuation in traffic volume at a shorter time granularity, which is referred to as “short-time fluctuation” of traffic. Call. In order to avoid quality degradation, it is required to calculate not only the observed traffic volume, but also a band that can absorb short-time fluctuations.

  In the present embodiment, in order to achieve the above object, a “single traffic model” is defined as a traffic model for each user in the band sharing communication service, and the traffic for each user is the same physical A “multiple traffic model” is defined as a traffic model superimposed on a unique band-sharing communication facility, and it is assumed that both traffic models are established.

  As will be described in detail later, in the present embodiment, the necessary bandwidth is calculated to be smaller than that of the prior art based on a theory derived from the assumption that both traffic models are established. In other words, the technique according to the present embodiment can provide an optimal communication bandwidth calculation method that brings greater business profits than the conventional technique.

  Hereinafter, the traffic model in the present embodiment will be described.

<Single traffic model>
First, a single traffic model in a band sharing communication service will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  The single traffic model is a traffic model for each user. For example, as shown in FIG. 1, the use of the communication service is started after the use start date of the user, and the use of the shared bandwidth communication service becomes normal / normal after a certain period of time has passed. Along with this, the daily average value and the standard deviation are also stabilized in the traffic volume observed for each user. In other words, the model assumes that the probability that the observed traffic volume will increase sharply at a future time point is reduced.

  The background hypothesis leading to the assumption of the above-described features is explained as follows, for example. Considering the case of a company or corporation as a user, a decision is made on approval and deliberation, which leads to the conclusion of a communication service contract, so the contents of the contract are carefully prepared in advance and carefully examined, including the certainty of execution. It will be. Therefore, it is unlikely that the user's communication use will be delayed much after the use start date. Except for unforeseen circumstances such as breakdowns, when a certain period of time has passed from the start date of use, the use of the communication service intended for use has been started reliably and has already been used stably and normally. It is thought that.

  At the same time, the traffic volume of a user is determined as a user band for communicating the traffic volume after evaluating the communication service to be used, the number of people expected to be used, and the usage frequency as appropriately as possible. It is thought that. Therefore, the fact that the amount of traffic that actually flows after stabilization of the user's communication usage is extremely small compared to the user bandwidth is unlikely to occur.

  In the end, delays relative to the start date of use and the fact that user bandwidth is significantly surplus with respect to the actual traffic volume are unnecessary expenditures for companies that follow the principles of economic activity, so these situations do not occur. In addition, strong control of corporate governance is thought to be constantly acting.

  This is a background hypothesis that a single traffic model is established. Even if the user is an individual, it is expected that introspective control will work so that the prior contract contents and the actual use of communication are matched as much as possible and wasteful expenditure is reduced. The point that should be emphasized in particular is that the greater the actual traffic volume, that is, the greater the user bandwidth, the stronger the control will be to reduce the delay from the use start date and the deviation from the user bandwidth. Therefore, it means that it leads to the robustness of the theory led by the single traffic model.

  However, in the single traffic model, the number of days elapsed from the start of use until the day when the use of the communication service becomes routine and the fluctuation of the observed traffic volume stabilizes, and the observation after stabilization of the user bandwidth and user communication use The “excess band” corresponding to the difference in traffic volume is not deterministic but probabilistic, so it cannot be obtained simply by continuously acquiring the observed traffic volume of the shared-bandwidth communication equipment subject to management design. And cannot be used for communication band calculation.

<Multiple traffic model>
Next, the multiple traffic model will be described with reference to FIG. Whereas the single traffic model assumes a traffic model corresponding to a user unit, the multiple traffic model is a traffic formed by multiplexing communication services based on a plurality of users accommodated in the same communication facility. Is a traffic model.

  As shown in FIG. 2, in the present embodiment, the multiple traffic model has a “traffic growth period” (period shown by A in FIG. 2) and a “traffic stable period” (period shown by B in FIG. 2). Assuming This will be described in detail below.

-Explanation of the traffic growth period-
First, the traffic growth period of the multiple traffic model will be described. Here, it is assumed that there is no user for the new shared bandwidth communication facility, and a situation is assumed in which communication traffic starts to communicate with the shared bandwidth communication facility after the use start date of each user accommodated.

  At this time, if the sum of user bandwidths of users who have communicated with the bandwidth sharing type communication equipment to be managed and have passed the use start date is defined as “total user bandwidth”, first, the user accommodation with time As the process proceeds, the total user bandwidth begins to increase.

  Furthermore, if the traffic fluctuation of the observed traffic amount of each user follows the single traffic model described above, if it is after the start date of use for each individual user unit accommodated in the concerned shared bandwidth communication facility, Quickly start communication of traffic volume depending on user bandwidth. For this reason, the traffic volume observed for the band-sharing communication facility increases rapidly, that is, traffic growth is observed. Such an increase in the total user bandwidth and the rapid increase in the traffic volume observed thereafter is called a traffic growth period.

-Explanation of the stable period of traffic-
Next, the traffic stabilization period of the multiple traffic model will be described. As described above, the user is accommodated in the bandwidth sharing type communication facility to which attention is paid, and traffic starts to communicate sequentially after the use start date. This is the traffic growth period.

  Further, as the traffic volume accommodated increases, it is considered that both the number of accommodated users and the user bandwidth of the new user additionally accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility gradually decrease. The reason is that the number of new users is reduced due to the circulation of communication service demand in the shared bandwidth communication facility. Another reason is that the surplus bandwidth of the shared bandwidth communication facility is relatively small at that time, and it becomes impossible to accommodate new users with a large user bandwidth. This is because new accommodation is possible only for new accommodation of a small user band. As shown in FIG. 2, this can be observed as a phenomenon in which the total user bandwidth does not increase (flat).

  At the same time, it is considered that each individual user who has been accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility and has passed a certain number of days from the start date of use will follow the single traffic model. Daily use has already begun, and fluctuations in individual traffic are considered to be small and stable.

  Therefore, it is assumed that the observed traffic volume corresponding to the entire user accommodated in the band-sharing communication facility does not increase, and the fluctuation range becomes relatively small and stabilizes. Under the conditions where the phenomenon occurs, it can be evaluated that the probability that the observed traffic volume will increase sharply after that time is small. This can be evaluated as a situation in which the risk of quality deterioration is also reduced.

  In the stable traffic period, if the situation does not change after that point, the probability that the observed traffic volume will increase sharply, that is, the risk of quality degradation is considered sufficiently small. Compared to the prior art, it is possible to operate the shared bandwidth communication equipment more effectively.

--Explanation of the cycle of traffic growth period and traffic stability period--
In a shared bandwidth communication facility in a stable traffic period, a user who has a certain percentage of the total user bandwidth moves out of the shared bandwidth communication facility by canceling the accommodation or changing the bandwidth. It is assumed that a situation occurs in which a large surplus bandwidth is generated in the shared bandwidth communication facility.

  Since it is possible to accommodate even a large user band that could not be accommodated during the traffic stabilization period after the release of the accommodation or the change of the band, new accommodation to the band-sharing communication facility is again possible. I think it will become more vigorous and reproduce the situation of the traffic growth period. Following that, the situation in the stable traffic period is also reproduced. In the present embodiment, two models having a recursive structure such as a traffic growth period and a traffic stable period are assumed.

  As explained so far, in the band sharing type communication service, by adopting the establishment of the single traffic model and the multiple traffic model as a precondition, it occurs alternately and exclusively in the band sharing type communication equipment which is the management design target. Necessary bandwidth calculation algorithm (necessary bandwidth) optimized for each situation of traffic growth period and traffic stable period by assuming recursive structure of the phenomenon of traffic growth period and traffic stable period and paying attention to each feature / characteristic It is possible to switch the calculation method).

―Explanation that an intermediate state between traffic growth period and traffic stabilization period is observed―
In the above description, for the sake of easy understanding, two exclusive states of a traffic growth period and a traffic stable period are assumed for the single traffic model and the multiple traffic model. In addition, the ideal growth period and stable period that can be determined exclusively, as in the above model, do not exist explicitly in the traffic that follows the traffic. The amount of traffic observed in the real world is extremely extreme when the rate of increase of traffic is relatively large (corresponding to the traffic growth period) and when the rate of increase of traffic is extremely small (corresponding to the stable period of traffic). Being a state is rather a rare state, and as a middle state between the two states, there is a continuous state where the rate of increase in traffic is relatively moderate. As the state transition, traffic volume and its fluctuation are only observed.

  However, by assuming the traffic growth period and the traffic stable period as a theoretical model and background mechanism, the model hypothesis that the traffic fluctuations naturally become smaller in the course of time until the stable period is reached is to reduce equipment costs. In this embodiment, the design, operation, and management of a shared bandwidth communication facility can be realized more economically than in the prior art.

(Details of the embodiment)
Hereinafter, the detailed contents of the present embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings.

  In the present embodiment, a situation is assumed in which execution of bandwidth calculation is continuously performed in units of a certain period. That is, for example, a necessary bandwidth is calculated with a certain period as a cycle, such as one month or one week. Similarly, with respect to the observed traffic amount for calculating the band, it is assumed that statistical processing or the like is performed by collecting measurement data for a certain period.

  In the present embodiment, the time point when the bandwidth calculation is performed is referred to as a “design time point”. Naturally, the design time point is the future compared to the observation period, and the design time point is a past relationship compared to the design target period. The “observation period” and the “design target period” in the present embodiment include not only the time width but also the concept of time.

<Overall configuration>
FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an overall configuration including the communication band calculation device 10 that performs the band calculation process in the present embodiment. The communication band calculation device 10 shown in FIG. 3 is composed of an information processing device such as a server device using a computer as a whole. As shown in FIG. 3, the communication band calculation device 10 acquires network information 41 such as the node configuration, topology, and line band information of the communication network from the communication network 20 and manages and operates a shared band communication service. 23, the user information 42 is acquired, and the traffic information 43 is acquired from the shared bandwidth communication equipment 30 and the nodes 21 and 22 to be managed and designed.

  Based on these pieces of information, the communication band calculation device 10 deteriorates service quality for traffic generated by using the band sharing communication service in the future design target period for the band sharing communication facility 30 as a management design target. It has a function of calculating a communication band necessary for ensuring communication without causing communication.

<About the bandwidth sharing type communication equipment 30>
Before describing the configuration of the communication band calculation device 10, first, the band sharing type communication facility 30 that is a target of band calculation will be described.

  FIG. 4 shows a configuration example of the band sharing type communication facility 30. As shown in FIG. 4, the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 can accommodate multiple user lines. The user bands are generally standardized. If each standard is referred to as a “band category”, in the example of FIG. 4, band categories 31, 32, and 33, which are three types of band categories, It is standardized to be less than 10 Mbps, 10 Mbps or more and less than 100 Mbps, or 100 Mbps or more and less than 1000 Mbps, and is accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30. The traffic of a plurality of lines having these user bands is superimposed and communicated by the band sharing type communication facility 30.

  FIG. 5 shows an example of the number of accommodated lines for each bandwidth category accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30. As shown in FIG. 5, in this example, the number of accommodated lines less than 10 Mbps, which is the bandwidth category 31, is 200 lines, the number of accommodated lines is 10 lines, which is the bandwidth category 32 and less than 100 Mbps, 10 lines, and the bandwidth category 33 is more than 100 Mbps. The number of accommodated lines less than 1000 Mbps is three lines. Since the communication line is configured by the band sharing communication facility 30, the band sharing communication facility 30 may be referred to as a communication line.

<Configuration of Communication Band Calculating Device 10>
Next, with reference to FIG. 3, the configuration of communication band calculating apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment will be described in detail.

  The communication band calculation device 10 includes, as main functional units, a communication interface unit 11 (hereinafter referred to as a communication I / F unit 11), an operation input unit 12, a screen display unit 13, a network information database (hereinafter referred to as a network information DB 14). ), A storage unit 15 and an arithmetic processing unit 16 are provided, which are connected via the internal communication bus B and have a function capable of transmitting and receiving information to and from each other. Note that the configuration of the communication band calculation device 10 shown in FIG. 3 is merely an example. The communication band calculation device 10 may have any configuration as long as it can execute the necessary band calculation processing described in the present embodiment.

  The communication I / F unit 11 includes a dedicated data communication circuit, and has a function of performing mutual communication with external devices such as the nodes 21 and 22 and the operation system 23 of the communication network 20.

  The operation input unit 12 includes an operation input device such as a keyboard and a mouse, and has a function of detecting an input operation from the operator and outputting the operation to the arithmetic processing unit 16.

  The screen display unit 13 is a screen display device and has a function of displaying various information such as operation menus and calculation results on the screen in accordance with instructions from the arithmetic processing unit 16.

  The network information DB 14 includes a storage device such as a hard disk, and has a function of storing and storing various processing information used for necessary bandwidth calculation processing in the arithmetic processing unit 16.

  The storage unit 15 includes a storage device such as a hard disk and a memory, and has a function of storing various processing information and programs used for necessary bandwidth calculation processing in the arithmetic processing unit 16.

  The arithmetic processing unit 16 has a microprocessor such as a CPU and its peripheral circuits, reads a program in the storage unit 15, and appropriately receives network information 41, user information 42, and traffic information 43 necessary for processing from the network information DB 14. And a function of executing various arithmetic processes for calculating the necessary bandwidth and a function of outputting the calculated necessary bandwidth to the network information DB 14 and the like.

  More specifically, as shown in FIG. 3, the arithmetic processing unit 16 includes an information acquisition unit 16A, a traffic utilization rate calculation unit 16B, a necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C, and an observation cycle optimization unit 16D. Details of the processing operations of these functional units will be described later.

  Further, the communication band calculation device 10 according to the present embodiment can be realized by causing one or a plurality of computers to execute a program describing the processing contents described in the present embodiment. That is, the function of the communication band calculation device 10 is to execute a program corresponding to the processing executed in the communication band calculation device 10 using hardware resources such as a CPU, memory, and hard disk built in the computer. Can be realized. Further, the program can be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium (portable memory or the like), stored, or distributed. It is also possible to provide the program through a network such as the Internet or electronic mail.

<Processing Operation of Arithmetic Processing Unit 16>
Next, the necessary bandwidth calculation processing of the arithmetic processing unit 16 will be described in detail with reference to the flowchart of FIG. Below, the process implemented by each function part is demonstrated along the procedure of the step number shown in FIG.

  Steps S110 and S120) First, the information acquisition unit 16A obtains the network information 41, the user information 42, and the traffic information 43, which are necessary for the calculation for the bandwidth calculation, with respect to the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 that is the target of design management. The information is acquired (step S110) and stored in the network information DB 14 (step S120).

  The network information 41 includes the bandwidth (interface speed) of communication facilities of the communication network 20 including the shared bandwidth communication facility 30.

  The user information 42 includes information on an arbitrary contract i (εS) included in the set S of all contracts (users) that are accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 or that are scheduled to be accommodated in the future. The user band Bi and the use start date di are included. Assume that the entire user information is {Bi, di}.

  The traffic information 43 includes time-series data of the observed traffic volume that is continuously measured over a long period of time with a pre-specified observation period for the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 as a management design target. Let y (t) be the traffic amount of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 during the observation period t, and let {y (t)} be the set as the time-series data. This is referred to as time-series data of the observed traffic volume during the observation period t, or simply as the observed traffic volume.

  Step S210) Next, the traffic utilization rate calculation unit 16B obtains the observed traffic amount {y (t)} and user information {Bi, di} regarding the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed from the network information DB 14.

Steps S220 to S240) Then, the traffic utilization rate calculation unit 16B calculates the traffic representative value x (t0) corresponding to the observation period t0 using the observed traffic volume {y (t)} (step S220), and the bandwidth. In the shared communication facility 30, it is a traffic utilization rate for the total user bandwidth corresponding to the traffic representative value x (t0), which is the total user bandwidth of the line actually used in the observation period t0. A traffic usage rate x _r (t0) is calculated (step S230), and the usage is not started by the observation period t0, but the contract is assumed to have a new use start date by the future design target period t1. An expected usage rate e _r (t1), which is a traffic usage rate, is calculated (step S240).

  In the present embodiment, as an example, the necessary bandwidth calculation process using one observation period t0 is described, but the necessary bandwidth calculation may be performed using each of a plurality of time-series observation periods. .

Step S250) The traffic usage rate calculation unit 16B stores the traffic usage rate x _r (t0) calculated in step S230 and the expected usage rate _er (t1) calculated in step S240 in the network information DB 14.

-Details of step S220-
The calculation of the traffic representative value x (t0) in step S220 described above will be described in detail.

  In the present embodiment, the traffic representative value x (t0) is the time-series data {y (t)} of the observed traffic amount measured during the observation period for the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed. In this case, the rearranged descending order is defined as the kth largest observed traffic amount from the upper level designated in advance.

  That is, the traffic representative value x (t0) is defined by the following equation (1).

ただし、式（１）において、関数ＤｅｃｅｎｄｉｎｇＯｒｄｅｒ（Ａ，ｉ）は、第１引数である実数の集合Ａに対して、降順に並べ直しを行い、第２引数である正の整数ｉで指定される上位から第ｉ番目の実数を出力とする関数である。

However, in Expression (1), the function DescendingOrder (A, i) is rearranged in descending order with respect to the set A of real numbers as the first argument, and is specified by a positive integer i as the second argument. This function outputs the i-th real number from the top.

  To explain with a specific example, when the traffic observation of the bandwidth sharing type communication facility 30 of interest is an observation cycle of 5 minutes and an observation period of one week, about 2000 points (to be exact, , 12 × 24 × 7 = 2016 times) observation traffic data is obtained. The observed traffic amount {y (t)} in the observation period t0 is rearranged in descending order, and for example, the traffic representative value x (t0) is defined as the twentieth observed traffic amount from the top.

  The traffic representative value x (t0) is 1% point from the bottom of the distribution (99% point from the entire distribution side) when the observed traffic amount {y (t)} in the observation period t0 is distributed. equal.

  As already described, in step S220, the traffic representative value x (t0) corresponding to the observation period t0 is calculated according to the above processing using the observed traffic volume {y (t)} acquired in step S210.

-Details of step S230-
Next, the calculation of the traffic usage rate x _r (t0) in step S230 will be described in detail.

The traffic utilization rate x _r (t0) corresponding to the traffic representative value x (t0) is defined by the following equation (2). In Equation (2), a set of contracts that are accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 that is the target of calculation of the traffic utilization rate x _r (t0) and that have started to be used in the observation period t0 is S (t0). And the user band of the contract i is Bi.

ただし、上記式（２）で算出するトラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒ（ｔ０）では、観測されるトラヒック量の絶対値が小さいとき等において、非常に不安定な数値を算出することがあるため、予め指定している上限値ｕｂ、あるいは、下限値ｌｂによって、以下の式（３）に基づき、補正後のトラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒＢ（ｔ０）を算出し、以降の処理で用いるトラヒック利用率として当該補正後のトラヒック利用率を使用してもよい。

However, the traffic utilization rate x _r (t0) calculated by the above equation (2) may calculate a very unstable value when the absolute value of the observed traffic volume is small. Based on the upper limit value ub or the lower limit value lb, the corrected traffic usage rate x _rB (t0) is calculated based on the following formula (3), and the corrected traffic usage rate used in the subsequent processing is calculated. May be used.

本実施の形態では、補正後のトラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒＢ（ｔ０）を、改めて、トラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒ（ｔ０）とする。つまり、以降の説明において、トラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒ（ｔ０）は、補正後のトラヒック利用率ｘ_ｒＢ（ｔ０）を意味する。

In the present embodiment, the corrected traffic usage rate x _rB (t0) is changed to the traffic usage rate x _r (t0). That is, in the following description, the traffic usage rate x _r (t0) means the corrected traffic usage rate x _rB (t0).

-Details of step S240-
Next, the calculation of the expected utilization rate _er (t1) in step S240 will be described in detail.

  A user who has not started to use the bandwidth sharing type communication facility 30 at the present time (at the time of the observation period t0) but has a new start date from the present time to the future design target period, It is called a “new user for the target period”.

The traffic utilization rate for the user band based on the traffic amount based on the new user in the future design target period t1 is referred to as an expected utilization rate _er (t1).

The expected usage rate e _r (t1) is an appropriate margin based on the traffic usage rate x _r (t0) of the user who has been accommodated in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 and has already begun to use. It is necessary to add the utilization rate.

  Therefore, it is assumed that the following equation (4) is used by using an appropriate coefficient cq (> 1) and a traffic utilization rate ur (> 0) that should be considered at the minimum.

ただし、式（４）において、関数Ｍａｘは、当該関数の引数のうち、最大の引数を値として出力する関数である。

However, in Expression (4), the function Max is a function that outputs the maximum argument among the arguments of the function as a value.

  Next, the required bandwidth calculation process performed by the required bandwidth calculation unit 16C will be described. Regarding the required bandwidth calculation process performed by the required bandwidth calculation unit 16C, the present embodiment includes a first example and a second example. In the following, the first example will be described first, and the second example will be described later. As shown in FIG. 7, the necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C in the first example includes a state determination unit 16Ca, a growth period observed band calculation unit 16Cb, a stable period observed band calculation unit 16Cc, a short-term fluctuation evaluation unit 16Cd, and A calculation parameter optimization unit 16Ce is included. The necessary bandwidth calculation process in the first example is appropriately performed by these functional units. In the following, the necessary bandwidth calculation processing after step S310 in FIG. 6 will be described along with step numbers.

Step S310) The necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C, in addition to the observed traffic volume {y (t)} and the user information {Bi, di} of the shared network communication facility 30 to be managed and designed, from the network information DB 14 x _r (t0) and the expected usage rate e _r (t1) are acquired as input information.

Step S320) In addition to the observed traffic amount {y (t)} and user information {Bi, di} of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed, the state determination unit 16Ca determines the traffic utilization rate x _r (t0). Based on the expected utilization rate e _r (t1), whether the traffic multiplexed in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed in the future design target period t1 is in the traffic growth period or the traffic stable period Determine.

  Hereinafter, the determination process in step S320 will be described in detail.

  In the present embodiment, as described above, the state of traffic multiplexed on the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed is classified exclusively as one of the traffic growth period and the traffic stable period. I think. At the time when the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 is newly installed, that is, when no users are accommodated, it is defined as the traffic growth period. Therefore, the conditions for judging the transition from the traffic growth period to the traffic stable period and the traffic stability By defining a condition for determining the transition from the period to the traffic growth period, it is possible to exclusively determine whether the state of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 is the traffic growth period or the traffic stable period. It becomes possible.

-Judgment criteria for transition from traffic growth period to traffic stabilization period-
When the following two conditions are satisfied simultaneously, it is determined that the traffic growth period shifts to the traffic stabilization period. That is, when the following two conditions are satisfied at the same time, it is determined that the state of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 is a traffic stable period.

(Condition 1)
The total user bandwidth B (t) that can be defined for the set of users S (t) used at time t is defined by the following equation (5).

条件１は、観測期間ｔ０の総ユーザ帯域Ｂ（ｔ０）と比べて設計目標期間ｔ１の総ユーザ帯域Ｂ（ｔ１）がほとんど増加しないという条件を満たすことである。つまり、総ユーザ帯域の増加速度がある定数パラメータより小さくなるという条件を満たすことである。この条件１は、適切な定数ｄを用いて、以下の式（６）で定式化される。

Condition 1 is that the total user band B (t1) in the design target period t1 hardly increases as compared with the total user band B (t0) in the observation period t0. That is, the condition that the increase rate of the total user bandwidth is smaller than a certain constant parameter is satisfied. This condition 1 is formulated by the following equation (6) using an appropriate constant d.

（条件２）
ネットワーク情報ＤＢ１４から取得した観測トラヒック量｛ｙ（ｔ）｝に基づき、帯域共用型通信設備３０に対する、観測期間ｔ０における直近の過去Ｌ日間の移動平均μ_Ｌ（ｔ０）と移動標準偏差σ_Ｌ（ｔ０）を算出する。

(Condition 2)
Based on the observed traffic volume {y (t)} acquired from the network information DB 14, the moving average μ _L (t0) and the moving standard deviation σ _L (for the most recent past L days in the observation period t0 for the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 ( t0) is calculated.

The traffic stable period means that the numerical fluctuation ranges of the moving average μ _L (t0) and the moving standard deviation σ _L (t0) are both small. It is formulated by the following formula (7) under a specific condition that it is sufficiently small. Here, L, Δt, α _μ , and α _σ are appropriate constants.

――トラヒック安定期からトラヒック成長期への移行判定条件――
トラヒック安定期からトラヒック成長期への移行判定条件は、トラヒック成長期からトラヒック安定期への移行判定条件が成立しなくなることで定義するものとする。つまり、上記の２条件の少なくとも１つが成立しないときに、帯域共用型通信設備３０の状態はトラヒック成長期であると判定される。

--Conditions for judging the transition from the stable traffic period to the traffic growth period-
The transition determination condition from the traffic stable period to the traffic growth period is defined by the fact that the transition determination condition from the traffic growth period to the traffic stable period is not satisfied. That is, when at least one of the above two conditions is not satisfied, it is determined that the state of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 is in the traffic growth period.

  Hereinafter, the bandwidth necessary for ensuring the quality in the future design target period for the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 that is the management design target will be described more specifically.

-Explanation of short-term fluctuation assessment-
First, the observed traffic volume is an average value of the traffic volume that communicates with the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 during a preset observation period. Therefore, when it is assumed that the measurement is performed at an extremely short time interval compared to the observation period, a traffic amount higher than the average value is measured. In the present embodiment, this correspondence evaluation is referred to as “short-time fluctuation evaluation”, and a band necessary for preventing quality deterioration even in traffic fluctuation that cannot be measured is obtained.

  In the present embodiment, as described above, there are bands in the sense that can be directly compared with the observed traffic volume and bands that can absorb short-term fluctuations in the traffic volume that cannot be observed. Yes, in order to clarify the difference between the two, the band in the former sense is called “observed bandwidth”, and the bandwidth in the latter sense is called “required bandwidth considering short-term fluctuations”, or simply “ It shall be called “required bandwidth”.

  As described above, in this embodiment, each band-sharing communication facility 30 can be determined exclusively during the traffic growth period or the traffic stable period, and is considered to follow the characteristics of each traffic model. During the design target period, the values of the observed bands are different. Therefore, the observed band according to the growth period is referred to as “growth period observed band”, and the observed band according to the stable period is referred to as “stable period observed band”.

  It is assumed that the observation period is t0, and the necessary band in the future design target period t1 is F (t1) for the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed. The required bandwidth F (t1) in the future design target period t1 is composed of an observed bandwidth and an additional bandwidth as a short-term fluctuation, and each term is expressed as Fm (t1), Fv (t1). If it puts, it can express as the following formulas (8).

更に、上述したように、被観測帯域には、トラヒック成長期とトラヒック安定期があるので、それぞれの条件で算出したことを明記するために、将来の設計目標期間ｔ１のトラヒック成長期の多重トラヒックモデルに従い算出された被観測帯域を成長期被観測帯域Ｆｍｇ（ｔ１）と定義し、他方、トラヒック安定期の多重トラヒックモデルに従い算出された被観測帯域を安定期被観測帯域Ｆｍｓ（ｔ１）と定義する。これらの定義に基づくステップＳ３３０以降の処理を説明する。

Furthermore, as described above, the observed band includes a traffic growth period and a traffic stable period. Therefore, in order to specify that the calculation was performed under each condition, the multiple traffic in the traffic growth period in the future design target period t1 is shown. The observed band calculated according to the model is defined as the growth period observed band Fmg (t1), while the observed band calculated according to the multiple traffic model in the traffic stable period is defined as the stable period observed band Fms (t1). To do. The process after step S330 based on these definitions will be described.

  Steps S330, S340) When the state determination unit 16Ca determines that the traffic state in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed is in the traffic growth period, the growth period observed band calculation unit 16Cb The observed band corresponding to is calculated.

  More specifically, the growth period observed bandwidth calculation unit 16Cb obtains the observed traffic amount {y (t)} regarding the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 from the network information DB 14 (step S330), and determines the growth period observed bandwidth. Calculate (step S340).

-Details of step S340-
The calculation of the observed band in the growth period in step S340 will be described in detail.

  The growth period observed band calculation unit 16Cb calculates the growth period observed band Fmg (t1) according to the following equation (9).

ただし、式（９）において、契約の集合Ｓ０は、観測期間ｔ０で既に利用されている通信回線であって、かつ、将来の設計目標期間ｔ１でも継続して利用されている通信回線の集合とする。

However, in equation (9), the contract set S0 is a set of communication lines that are already used in the observation period t0 and that are continuously used in the future design target period t1. To do.

  Similarly, the contract set S1 is a set of communication lines that are not used yet in the observation period t0 and that are used in the future design target period t1. That is, S0 and S1 are sets defined by the following equation (10).

ここで、式（１０）において、集合演算子"−"は、差・相対補の演算子を表す。

Here, in Expression (10), the set operator “−” represents a difference / relative complement operator.

  Steps S350 and S360) When the state determination unit 16Ca determines that the traffic state in the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed is in the traffic stable period, the stable period observed band calculation unit 16Cc The observed band corresponding to is calculated.

  More specifically, the stable period observed band calculation unit 16Cc obtains the observed traffic amount {y (t)} regarding the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 from the network information DB 14 (step S350), and the stable period observed band Is calculated (step S360).

-Details of step S360-
The calculation of the observed band in the stable period in step S360 will be described in detail.

  The stable period observed band calculation unit 16Cc calculates the stable period observed band Fms (t1) according to the following equation (11).

ただし、式（１１）において、μ_Ｌ（ｔ０）、σ_Ｌ（ｔ０）は、当該帯域共用型通信設備３０に対する観測トラヒック量｛ｙ（ｔ）｝から算出される、それぞれ直近Ｌ日間の移動平均と移動標準偏差である。また、移動平均の日数Ｌと、係数ｃ３、ｃ４は予め適切に定められた定数である。

However, in Expression (11), μ _L (t0) and σ _L (t0) are calculated from the observed traffic volume {y (t)} with respect to the bandwidth sharing type communication facility 30, and are respectively moving averages for the latest L days. And moving standard deviation. The moving average days L and the coefficients c3 and c4 are constants appropriately determined in advance.

  Step S370) Next, the short-term fluctuation evaluation unit 16Cd acquires the growth period observed band from the growth period observed band calculation unit 16Cb, or acquires the stable period observed band from the stable period observed band calculation unit 16Cc. To do.

  Steps S380 and S390) Then, the short-time fluctuation evaluating unit 16Cd determines a necessary band in consideration of short-term fluctuations for absorbing large fluctuations in traffic in a shorter time with respect to the observed band acquired in Step 370. Calculation is performed (step S380), and the calculated necessary bandwidth is output to the outside (step S390).

-Details of step S380-
Hereinafter, calculation of the necessary bandwidth in consideration of short-time fluctuations in step S380 will be described in detail.

  The short-term fluctuation evaluation unit 16Cd is either the growth period observed band acquired from the growth period observed band calculation unit 16Cb in step S370 or the stable period observed band acquired from the stable period observed band calculation unit Cc. Is set as the observed band Fm (t1) in the future design target period t1 according to the equation (12).

短時間変動評価部１６Ｃｄは、更に、以下の式（１３）に従って、Ｆｖ（ｔ１）を算出する。

The short-time variation evaluation unit 16Cd further calculates Fv (t1) according to the following equation (13).

ただし、式（１３）におけるｐ（ｔ１）は下記の式（１４）で定義されるものである。

However, p (t1) in the equation (13) is defined by the following equation (14).

ここで、式（１３）における係数ｃ５は、予め適切に定められた定数である。

Here, the coefficient c5 in Expression (13) is a constant that is appropriately determined in advance.

  As described above, various constant parameters are used in calculating the necessary bandwidth. The calculation parameter optimization unit 16Ce provides and optimizes these constant parameters. Specifically, it is as follows.

  (Steps S410 and S420) The calculation parameter optimization unit 16Ce provides the constant parameters of the equations (5) to (12) used inside the necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C (step S410) and optimizes the constant parameters. (Step S420).

  As an example of a specific optimization method in step S420, the observed band Fm (t1) in the future design target period t1 is compared with the traffic amount {y (t)} actually observed in the period. Then, it is possible to solve the optimization problem for determining the constant parameter so that the error is minimized and robust. Note that the observed band Fm (t1) in the future design target period t1 corresponds to the traffic amount estimated to be observed in the future design target period t1.

  Next, the observation period optimization process performed by the observation period optimization unit 16D will be described. As shown in FIG. 8, the observation cycle optimization unit 16D includes a traffic distribution creation unit 16Da, a comparative evaluation unit 16Db, an optimum cycle determination unit 16Dc, and an observation cycle setting unit 16Dd. The observation cycle optimization process is appropriately performed by these functional units.

  FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the processing of the observation cycle optimization unit 16D in the present embodiment. Hereinafter, the observation cycle optimization processing will be described along the step numbers in FIG.

  Step S500) The traffic distribution creating unit 16Da first receives the time-series observed traffic volume (traffic data, cycle) of the facility whose observation cycle is to be optimized from the network information DB. Here, in this embodiment, it is assumed that the observation period (denoted as period τ in FIG. 9) of the observed traffic amount is 5 minutes, but this is for ease of explanation and is a different period. But the same is true. Next, the traffic distribution creation unit 16Da creates a traffic distribution from the observed traffic volume of the facility for the purpose of maintaining and managing the quality of communication service provision. More specifically, it is assumed that a preset percentage point of the traffic distribution, for example, 99% point is calculated. With this function, it is assumed that the 99% point in the traffic data with a 5-minute cycle is, for example, 100 Mbps.

  Next, a traffic distribution is created when the observation period is extended (denoted as period τ ′ in FIG. 9). Here, the description will be made assuming that the traffic distribution is extended when the period is extended to 60 minutes, but this is only an example, and it is obvious that an arbitrary traffic distribution that is a constant multiple of the observation period of 5 minutes can be created. is there. It is assumed that, for example, the 99% point is calculated to be 103 Mbps in the traffic distribution when the period is extended to 60 minutes. Here, the 99% point of the traffic distribution has been discussed, but more generally, a statistical numerical value obtained by an arbitrary predetermined calculation procedure using a large number of traffic observation values that vary greatly depending on time as input. It may be created as output.

  Step S510) Next, the comparative evaluation unit 16Db performs comparative evaluation of the cost reduction effect by extending the observation period. That is, in each of the 5-minute period (period τ) and the 60-minute period (period τ ′), the cost evaluation related to observation, collection, and accumulation and the equipment cost evaluation are performed to calculate the effect of reducing the overall cost.

  In the above example, since the traffic data amount is 1/12 in the 5-minute period (period τ) and the 60-minute period (period τ ′), the cost related to the observation, collection, and accumulation of traffic data is also simple. Can be thought of as changing to 1/12. On the other hand, the 99% value of the observed traffic distribution has increased by 3%. Therefore, in order to provide a communication service of the same quality in the equipment, if the equipment amount is simply required to be 3%, the equipment cost is reduced. It can be evaluated that it increases by about 3%. By having the cost information of observation, collection and accumulation and the information of equipment cost held inside, the traffic observation is in a 5-minute period, but the effect on the overall cost by changing to a 60-minute period is evaluated. be able to.

  More generally, when the cost function related to the observation, collection, and accumulation of traffic data in the observation period l is Co (l), and the percentage value of the traffic distribution that serves as a design standard for the facility quantity is Bp (l) The cost function of the facility amount is assumed to be K (Bp (l)). At this time, when the current observation period is l = τ, when the period is extended to l = τ ′, the effect of reducing the overall cost (value of cost evaluation) is expressed by the following equation (15). Can do.

このようなコスト関数を、観測周期ｌをパラメータとする多項式として、予め観測周期最適化部１６Ｄの内部、あるいは、記憶部１５に備えてもよい。

Such a cost function may be provided in advance in the observation period optimization unit 16D or in the storage unit 15 as a polynomial having the observation period l as a parameter.

  Step S520) Using the cost evaluation from the comparison evaluation unit 16Db as an input, the optimum cycle determination unit 16Dc receives the cost evaluation to determine whether the current 5-minute cycle can be maintained or to change to a 60-minute cycle as a candidate for cycle extension. Determine from the measure of effectiveness. Alternatively, in addition to 60 minutes, an observation period with an optimal cost reduction effect may be selectively determined as compared with other periods such as 20 minutes and 30 minutes. Basically, when the observation period is changed (when the change determination result is YES), an observation period setting update process described later is performed. When the observation cycle is not changed (when the change determination result is No), the process ends.

  However, the present embodiment is characterized in that the following consideration is added. In general, the longer the observation period, the lower the equipment cost for traffic data observation, collection, and storage, but conversely, it becomes difficult to estimate instantaneous short-term fluctuations at the packet level. However, there is a trade-off aspect that it is necessary to increase the amount of equipment. The momentary short-time fluctuation of the packet level has been gradually increasing due to the progress and evolution of the communication application used, the improvement of the transfer performance of communication terminals and servers, the development of communication protocol functions, and the like. In order to estimate short-term fluctuations with appropriate accuracy, it is important to consistently observe and accumulate traffic data in the shortest possible cycle.

  Therefore, for some communication facilities, the traffic observation period is consistently maintained at the minimum time (for example, 5 minutes). Because there are various types of communication equipment and the characteristics of short-term fluctuations differ depending on the type of communication service, it is necessary to change the amount of equipment required even if the traffic volume observed in the same observation period is the same. In addition, it must be considered that traffic data cannot be effectively statistically processed unless data is accumulated for a long period of time longer than a certain period (for example, at least two years or more). Therefore, regardless of the type of equipment or the combination conditions of major communication services that occupy the amount of traffic passing through the equipment, set up equipment groups that include at least one equipment, or the equipment utilization rate. An equipment group that includes higher-order equipment is set, and a equipment group list that maintains the traffic observation period with the shortest period is maintained. For equipment not included in the equipment group, the change to the optimum observation cycle shall be determined in consideration of the expected cost reduction effect. If there is a change in the equipment group list that maintains the shortest cycle, update processing such as additional registration and deletion is performed.

  The equipment group list that maintains the shortest cycle is stored in, for example, the storage unit 15, and the optimum cycle determination unit 16Dc refers to the equipment group list so that the equipment to be changed is included in the equipment group list. The shortest cycle is applied to the equipment, and if it is not included, the cycle is changed.

  Step S530) When the optimum cycle determining unit 16Dc decides to change the observation cycle related to the equipment, the observation cycle setting unit 16Dd inputs from the optimum cycle determining unit 16Dc (including the changed observation cycle τ ′). In response, the information collection unit 16A is set and changed the traffic data observation cycle of the equipment.

<Second Example of Required Band Calculation Processing Implemented by Required Band Calculation Unit 16C>
Next, a second example of the required bandwidth calculation process performed by the required bandwidth calculation unit 16C will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. As shown in FIG. 11, the configuration of the necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C in the second example includes an observed traffic amount calculation unit 16Cf, a short-time fluctuation evaluation unit 16Cd, and a calculation parameter optimization unit 16Ce. The necessary bandwidth calculation process in the second example is appropriately performed by these functional units. In the following, the necessary bandwidth calculation processing after step S310 in FIG. 10 will be described along with step numbers.

Step S310) The necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C, in addition to the observed traffic volume {y (t)} and the user information {Bi, di} of the shared network communication facility 30 to be managed and designed, from the network information DB 14 x _r (t0) and the expected usage rate e _r (t1) are acquired as input information.

Step S315) The observed traffic volume calculation unit 16Cf adds the traffic utilization rate x _r (in addition to the observed traffic volume {y (t)} and user information {Bi, di} of the shared bandwidth communication facility 30 to be managed and designed. t0), the expected utilization rate _er (t1), and other parameters, the observed traffic amount of the traffic amount multiplexed in the shared bandwidth communication equipment 30 to be managed and designed in the future design target period t1 is calculated. .

  Hereinafter, the calculation process in step S315 will be described in detail.

  In the present embodiment, as described above, the traffic state of the contract unit (which may be referred to as “user unit”) multiplexed in the bandwidth sharing type communication facility 30 to be managed and designed is abstract. There is a traffic growth period and a traffic stabilization period, and in reality it is in an intermediate state. The relationship between the traffic growth period and the traffic stabilization period is that there is a communication service that the user intended in advance in the business activity as the contract purpose of the band-sharing communication service. Beginning on a trial and limited basis and moving from a traffic growth period to a traffic stabilization period in response to the full-scale, steady state and stabilization of the use of the communication service over a period of time Is assumed.

  As information for judging the progress of this transition, if the traffic volume for each contract cannot be measured (it can be measured as the traffic volume for the entire contract that communicates with the communication equipment), the date of use of the communication service (use) Use the elapsed period from the start date. Simply, if a certain period or more has elapsed, it can be estimated that the traffic stable period has already been reached.

  In this communication service, if the period of time from the opening date to the stable traffic period is W (for example, one year ≈ about 50 weeks), the amount of observed traffic (observed bandwidth) after W is greater than before W. ) Is less likely to cause quality degradation. Furthermore, in order to sequentially reduce the bandwidth, it is possible to sequentially reduce the amount of observed traffic every period U (for example, about 10 weeks) shorter than W.

  In the second example of the necessary bandwidth calculation process, a model is assumed based on the latter example, in which 50 weeks have passed after the opening date and the traffic is stable. Here, in the future design target period t1, the set of unopened contracts is U0 (t1), the set of contracts less than 10 weeks after opening is U1 (t1), and contracts that are 10 weeks or more and less than 20 weeks after opening U2 (t1), U3 (t1) is a set of contracts 20 weeks to less than 30 weeks after opening, U4 (t1) is a set of contracts 30 weeks to less than 40 weeks after opening, and 40 A set of contracts that are greater than or equal to 50 weeks and less than 50 weeks is U5 (t1), and a set of contracts that are greater than 50 weeks and is U6 (t1). The “contract set” corresponds to a “user set”.

At this time, the contract term Ui (t1) (i = 0, 1, 2,..., 6), the average term Mi (t1) and the fluctuation term Vi (t1) of the observed traffic amount for each, Ui The utilization rate r _i assumed for (t1) is determined as follows.

上記のパラメータｒ_ｉ（段階的な期待利用率）は、過去の観測トラヒックデータに基づき、０≦ｒ_０≦ｒ_１≦ｒ_２≦・・・≦ｒ６≦ｅ_ｒ（ｔ１）となるように決定する。これにより、開通後の経過時間の長さに応じて、トラヒック変動が安定的になることを見込んだ評価を行うことが出来る。なお、各Ｂ_ｋの値はユーザ情報から取得できる。

The parameter r _i (stepped expected utilization factor) is determined so as to satisfy ₀ ≦ r ₀ ≦ r ₁ ≦ r ₂ ≦... ≦ r ₆ ≦ e _r (t1) based on the past observed traffic data. To do. Thereby, it is possible to perform an evaluation in anticipation that the traffic fluctuation becomes stable according to the length of the elapsed time after opening. In addition, the value of each _Bk can be acquired from user information.

  Furthermore, the observed bandwidth Fm (t1) for all the contract sets is a set of contracts Ui (t1) (i = 0, 1, 2,..., 6) according to the length of the elapsed time after opening, respectively. Using the average term Mi (t1) and the fluctuation term Vi (t1) of the observed traffic amount for, the following is determined.

上記のパラメータｃｍ_ｉ、ｃｖ_ｉは、０＜ｃｍ_ｉ、ｃｖ_ｉ＜１（ｉ＝０，１，２，・・・，６）、かつ、過去の観測トラヒックデータに基づき、過去の観測トラヒック量がＦｍ（ｔ１）を上回らないという条件から、数値的に定めることが出来る。

The above parameters cm _i , cv _i are 0 <cm _i , cv _i <1 (i = 0, 1, 2,..., 6), and the past observed traffic amount based on the past observed traffic data. Can be determined numerically from the condition that does not exceed Fm (t1).

At this time, as the sum of user bandwidths included in the set Ui (t1) becomes larger with respect to the utilization rate r _i assumed in advance for each of the above-described contract sets Ui (t1), the actual traffic amount is There is a tendency to decrease. Therefore, as shown in the following equation (19), when the total sum of the user bands is smaller than a certain value G _i , the utilization rate r _i is evaluated using a larger utilization rate r _i +, and the certain value G _i is evaluated. If it becomes larger than this, it is possible to use a smaller utilization rate r _i − as the utilization rate ri.

更に、開通日からの経過日数に依存した契約の集合を簡素化し、未開通の契約の集合をＵ０（ｔ１）とし、開通後Ｗ未満の集合をＵ１（ｔ１）とし、開通後Ｗ以上の集合をＵ２（ｔ１）とするように三つのグループに分割することとしてもよい。また、分割数はこれまでに説明したものに限られず、他の分割数としてもよい。

Further, the set of contracts depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date is simplified, the set of unopened contracts is set as U0 (t1), the set less than W after opening is set as U1 (t1), and the set of W or more after opening It is good also as dividing | segmenting into three groups so that may be set to U2 (t1). Further, the number of divisions is not limited to that described above, and other division numbers may be used.

Determined by the above-described procedure, the set of age-dependent contracts separated by from opening date, utilization r _i assumed in future design goals period t1, depending on the operational days stage This is called a typical expected utilization rate.

  In particular, the number of days elapsed from the opening date when traffic growth and fluctuation are expected to be small (corresponding to the number of days elapsed from the opening date to the traffic stable period) is suitably about one year. This is clear from the analysis of past traffic data. The background is as follows.

  Although the utility value of shared bandwidth communication services is high for companies, the cost is also high, so the amount of traffic expected before the conclusion of the contract and the corresponding user bandwidth and its cost-to-business contribution effect are usually carefully scrutinized. is there. Since the company accounts are a single year, it is thought that the company is required to see the business contribution effect within one year at the latest after the start of cost expenditure, that is, after the opening date.

  The process of step S380 in the second example of the necessary bandwidth calculation process is a process using Fm (t1) obtained in the second example as Fm (t1) of step S380 in the first example. The process of step S390 in the second example is the same as step S390 in the first example.

  Even when the second example of the necessary bandwidth calculation process is performed, in steps S410 and S420, the calculation parameter optimization unit 16Ce provides constant parameters of the respective formulas used inside the necessary bandwidth calculation unit 16C. Together with (Step S410), the constant parameter is optimized (Step S420). Examples of optimization methods are as already described. The observation cycle optimization process can also be performed as described above.

(Summary of embodiment)
In the present embodiment, there is provided a communication band calculation device that calculates a necessary band in a future design target period assuming that a newly accommodated user is added.

  That is, the present embodiment is a communication band calculation device for calculating a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing type communication service, and is a communication line (referred to as communication equipment) in the network. Network information collecting means for periodically acquiring the traffic volume, and extracting the representative traffic volume from the periodically acquired traffic volume, and the ratio of the representative traffic volume to the predetermined communication band in the communication line A traffic usage rate calculating means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic amount in the design target period based on the traffic usage rate, and the traffic acquired periodically Based on the traffic volume, the traffic status on the communication line is determined by the traffic growth period In accordance with the required bandwidth calculation method corresponding to the determined state, the required bandwidth of the communication line in the design target period is calculated using the traffic usage rate and the expected usage rate. There is provided a communication band calculating device including a necessary band calculating means.

  The traffic usage rate calculating means calculates a corrected traffic usage rate that is corrected so that the traffic usage rate is not more than a preset upper limit value and not less than a preset lower limit value, and uses the corrected traffic. The rate may be the traffic utilization rate.

  The necessary bandwidth calculating means satisfies the first condition that the increase rate of the total user bandwidth, which is the predetermined communication bandwidth, is smaller than a constant parameter, and the moving average of the past predetermined days nearest to the traffic volume, When the second condition in which the fluctuation amount of the moving standard deviation is smaller than a certain constant parameter is satisfied, it is determined that the traffic state is in the traffic stable period, and the first condition and the second condition are When at least one condition is not satisfied, it may be determined that the traffic state is in a traffic growth period.

  In addition, according to the present embodiment, a communication band calculation apparatus for calculating a necessary band for a future design target period for a network that provides a band sharing type communication service, which periodically transmits traffic from a communication line in the network. A network information collecting means for acquiring a volume, extracting a representative traffic volume from the periodically acquired traffic volume, and calculating a traffic utilization rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic volume to a predetermined communication band in the communication line; Based on the traffic usage rate, a traffic usage rate calculation means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic amount in the design target period, and user information having a user bandwidth and an opening date for each user Group of users depending on the number of days that have passed since the opening date in the design target period. A step that is a stepwise expected usage rate corresponding to the grouping using the expected usage rate based on the hypothesis of shifting from a traffic growth phase to a traffic stable phase according to the number of days elapsed from the opening date. A communication bandwidth comprising a required bandwidth calculation means for calculating a required bandwidth of the communication line by using the stepwise expected utilization rate and a total user bandwidth in the group of each grouped user. A calculation device is provided.

  The necessary bandwidth calculation means includes a set of unopened users, a set of users who have not passed the number of days since the opening date expected to reach a stable traffic period, and a set of users who have exceeded the elapsed days. It is good also as grouping into one set.

  For example, the necessary bandwidth calculating means sets the number of days elapsed from the opening date expected to reach the traffic stable period to one year.

In the calculation of the stepwise expected utilization rate in the design target period, the necessary bandwidth calculating means calculates a sum of the corresponding user bandwidths for a set of users grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date. When larger than a predetermined value, the stepwise expected utilization factor may be calculated as a smaller value than when the sum is not larger than the predetermined value.

  The communication band calculation device uses the traffic amount to perform an optimization evaluation of a traffic amount collection period for the communication line, and changes the setting to the optimized traffic amount collection period for the network information collection unit. It is good also as providing the observation period optimization means which performs.

  The communication band calculation device holds a list of communication lines that collect traffic in a predetermined shortest cycle, and the observation cycle optimization unit determines that the communication line to be optimized is a communication line in the list. In some cases, the shortest cycle may be applied to the communication line.

  The necessary bandwidth calculating means is used for calculating the necessary bandwidth by comparing the traffic amount estimated to be observed in the design target period with the traffic amount actually observed in the design target period. Constant parameter optimization means for optimizing the constant parameters to be obtained may be included.

  According to the present embodiment, in a shared bandwidth communication service, there is provided a technology that can calculate the amount of equipment that can accommodate a larger number of users without degrading service quality within a limited bandwidth. Is done.

  In addition, with this technology, communication service providers that offer shared bandwidth communication services can use communication facilities more efficiently and generate greater business profits compared to conventional technologies while avoiding quality degradation. The resulting communication bandwidth can be calculated.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications and applications are possible within the scope of the claims.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Communication band calculation apparatus 11 ... Communication I / F part 12 ... Operation input part 13 ... Screen display part 14 ... Network information DB
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 15 ... Memory | storage part 16 ... Operation processing part 16A ... Information acquisition part 16B ... Traffic utilization rate calculation part 16C ... Necessary band calculation part 16Ca ... State determination part 16Cb ... Growth period observed band calculation part 16Cc ... Stable period observed band calculation part 16Cd: Short-term fluctuation evaluation unit 16Ce: Calculation parameter optimization unit 16Cf ... Observed traffic calculation unit 16D ... Observation cycle optimization unit 16Da ... Traffic distribution creation unit 16Db ... Comparison evaluation unit 16Dc ... Optimal cycle determination unit 16Dd ... Observation cycle setting Unit 20 ... Communication network 21 and 22 ... Node 23 ... Operation system 30 ... Band shared communication equipment 31, 32 and 33 ... Band category 41 network information 42 ... User information 43 ... Traffic information B ... Internal communication bus

Claims (13)

A communication band calculation device for calculating a necessary band for a future design target period, targeting a network that provides a shared band communication service,
Network information collection means for periodically acquiring traffic from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on the traffic amount acquired periodically, it is determined whether the traffic state in the communication line is in a traffic growth period or a traffic stable period, according to a necessary bandwidth calculation method corresponding to the determined state, A required bandwidth calculating means for calculating a required bandwidth of the communication line in the design target period,
The required bandwidth calculating means calculates the required bandwidth using the traffic utilization rate and the expected utilization rate when the traffic state is determined to be in a traffic growth period, and the traffic state is a traffic stable period. A communication band calculation device that calculates the necessary band using a moving average and a moving standard deviation of the past predetermined number of days nearest to the traffic volume when the traffic volume is determined to be in the network. The traffic usage rate calculating means calculates a corrected traffic usage rate that is corrected so that the traffic usage rate is not more than a preset upper limit value and not less than a preset lower limit value, and uses the corrected traffic. The communication band calculation device according to claim 1, wherein a rate is the traffic utilization rate. The necessary bandwidth calculating means includes
The first condition that the rate of increase of the total user band, which is the predetermined communication band, is smaller than a constant parameter is satisfied, and the moving average and the moving standard deviation of the past predetermined number of days of the traffic volume are When the second condition that is smaller than a certain constant parameter is satisfied, it is determined that the traffic state is in the traffic stable period,
The communication band calculation apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, wherein when at least one of the first condition and the second condition is not satisfied, the traffic state is determined to be in a traffic growth period. A communication band calculation device for calculating a necessary band for a future design target period, targeting a network that provides a shared band communication service,
Network information collection means for periodically acquiring traffic from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating means for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on user information having user bandwidth and opening date for each user, a set of users is grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date in the design target period, and the traffic growth period according to the number of days elapsed since the opening date Based on the hypothesis of shifting to a traffic stable period, the expected utilization rate is used to determine a stepwise expected utilization rate that is a stepwise expected utilization rate corresponding to the grouping. A communication band calculation apparatus comprising: a required band calculation unit that calculates a required band of the communication line using a total user band in a group of users grouped. The necessary bandwidth calculating means includes
Group into three sets: a set of unopened users, a set of users that have not passed the number of days since the opening date expected to reach a stable traffic period, and a set of users that have exceeded the elapsed days Item 5. The communication band calculation device according to Item 4. The necessary bandwidth calculating means includes
The communication band calculation device according to claim 4 or 5, wherein the number of days elapsed from the opening date expected to reach a stable traffic period is one year. The necessary bandwidth calculating means includes
In the calculation of the stepwise expected utilization rate in the design target period, when the sum of the corresponding user bands is larger than a predetermined value for a set of users grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date The communication band calculation device according to any one of claims 4 to 6, wherein a smaller value is calculated as the stepwise expected utilization rate than when the sum is not greater than a predetermined value. An observation period optimization unit that performs optimization evaluation of a traffic amount collection period for the communication line using the traffic amount, and changes a setting to the optimized traffic amount collection period for the network information collection unit The communication band calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7, further comprising: The communication band calculation device holds a list of communication lines that collect traffic in a predetermined shortest cycle, and the observation cycle optimization unit determines that the communication line to be optimized is a communication line in the list. The communication band calculation device according to claim 8, wherein the shortest cycle is applied to the communication line in some cases. The necessary bandwidth calculating means is used for calculating the necessary bandwidth by comparing the traffic amount estimated to be observed in the design target period with the traffic amount actually observed in the design target period. The communication band calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 9, further comprising constant parameter optimization means for optimizing a constant parameter to be generated. A communication bandwidth calculation method executed by a communication bandwidth calculation device that calculates a necessary bandwidth for a future design target period for a network that provides a shared bandwidth communication service,
A network information collecting step for periodically obtaining a traffic volume from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating step for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on the traffic amount acquired periodically, it is determined whether the traffic state in the communication line is in a traffic growth period or a traffic stable period, according to a necessary bandwidth calculation method corresponding to the determined state, A required bandwidth calculating step of calculating a required bandwidth of the communication line in the design target period,
In the required bandwidth calculating step, when the communication bandwidth calculating device determines that the traffic state is in a traffic growth period, the communication bandwidth calculating device calculates the required bandwidth using the traffic usage rate and the expected usage rate, and A communication band calculation method for calculating the necessary band by using a moving average and a moving standard deviation of a past predetermined number of days nearest to the traffic volume when it is determined that the traffic state is in a traffic stable period. A communication bandwidth calculation method executed by a communication bandwidth calculation device that calculates a necessary bandwidth for a future design target period for a network that provides a shared bandwidth communication service,
A network information collecting step for periodically obtaining a traffic volume from a communication line in the network;
A representative traffic amount is extracted from the periodically acquired traffic amount, a traffic usage rate indicating a ratio of the representative traffic amount to a predetermined communication band in the communication line is calculated, and the design is performed based on the traffic usage rate. A traffic usage rate calculating step for calculating an expected usage rate corresponding to a new traffic volume in the target period;
Based on user information having user bandwidth and opening date for each user, a set of users is grouped depending on the number of days elapsed from the opening date in the design target period, and the traffic growth period according to the number of days elapsed since the opening date Based on the hypothesis of shifting to a traffic stable period, the expected utilization rate is used to determine a stepwise expected utilization rate that is a stepwise expected utilization rate corresponding to the grouping. A required bandwidth calculating step of calculating a required bandwidth of the communication line using a total user bandwidth in a group of each grouped user. Computer
A communication band calculation program for causing each unit of the communication band calculation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 10 to function.

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