JP6166740B2 - Resource management support system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a resource management support system. For example, the present invention relates to a technology that supports a task of managing resources and pollutants in an area having a certain range of spatial extent such as a national land unit or a local government unit.

  It is required to monitor resources and pollutants in areas with a certain range of spatial expansion, such as national and local government units, and appropriately implement administrative measures such as resource management and disaster prevention based on the analysis of these monitoring results. Furthermore, it is more preferable that an effective future plan is formulated and appropriate operation management is performed by making a future prediction that also considers the time scale.

  The objects to be managed are various (physical) quantities such as resources, pollutants, or heat, but it is cumbersome to enumerate all times in this specification, so here water is a representative example. explain.

  Taking water as an example, water resource management is, of course, an important measure. For example, from the viewpoint of effective use of water resources or prevention of water disasters, pay close attention to whether water-related monitoring items such as river water level, groundwater level, dam water level, and spring water volume are within a specified range. Measures must be taken so that these monitoring items fall within a predetermined range.

  It is not easy to accurately grasp the behavior of water in a certain range of geosphere environment with a certain spread. Water enters and exits the area by repeating various behaviors such as evaporation, rainfall, river flow, infiltration, groundwater flow, and spring water among various systems such as the atmosphere, the ground surface, and the underground. Several models have been proposed to simulate water behavior based on surface topography and river shape, but this is not sufficient.

  Therefore, the present applicant has developed GETFLOWS (registered trademark) as a comprehensive simulation device for the water circulation system in the terrestrial area, and has provided useful data and advice on water administration of local governments in addition to research on water circulation ( For example, Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2. In addition, there are many papers by the applicant and the inventors, which are introduced on the applicant's website). GETFLOWS (registered trademark) can formulate a water circulation system in a land area as a multi-phase multi-component fluid system, and can completely simulate the water behavior by completely integrating the flow of ground and underground water. Furthermore, the simulation result can be easily visualized on the map.

JP 2011-13753 A JP 2007-72753 A

Development of 3D inland water simulation method combining surface flow and groundwater flow, Journal of Groundwater Vol.38, No.4, 1996 Koji Mori, Kazuhiro Tada, So Sato, Nobuko Serizawa, Yoshimi Uchiyama, Naohide Yokoyama, Masanobu Yamane, Kanagawa Prefectural Water Source Area Model, Jinjin Kanshose 10 (2013) 215-223. Geosphere Environmental Technology website http: // www. getc. co. jp / software / aboutgetf /

  Certainly, GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is an excellent comprehensive simulation device, but various problems arise when each municipality actually operates it. GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is an advanced computer simulation apparatus, and considerable expertise is required to properly use it. In addition, a considerably large computer is required to operate an integrated simulation apparatus such as GETFLOWS (registered trademark). For example, one room may need to be a computer room. Considering this, it is not realistic for each local government to operate GETFLOWS (registered trademark) itself.

The resource management support system of the present invention includes:
Build a circulation model that reproduces the circulation state of resources in a given area on a computer,
Build a trained metamodel that traces some of the functions of the circular model,
The learned metamodel is incorporated in a user terminal used by an administrator in the predetermined area.

The operation method of the resource management support system of the present invention is:
Build a circulation model that reproduces the circulation state of resources in a given area on a computer,
Build a trained metamodel that traces some of the functions of the circular model,
Incorporating the learned metamodel into a user terminal used by an administrator in the predetermined area,
The manager obtains an index to be monitored using the learned metamodel.

In the present invention,
The index of the monitoring target obtained using the learned meta model is compared with a predetermined reference value to determine the quality of the index,
When the determination result is NO, it is preferable that the operator of the circulation model executes a simulation operation using the circulation model.

The resource management support system of the present invention includes:
Build a water circulation model that reproduces the water circulation state in a given area on a computer,
Trace a part of the functions of the water cycle model to build a water balance metamodel that obtains the water balance of the area,
The water balance metamodel is incorporated in a user terminal used by an administrator in the predetermined area.

The operation method of the resource management support system of the present invention is:
Build a water circulation model that reproduces the water circulation state in a given area on a computer,
Trace a part of the function of the water cycle model, build a water balance metamodel to get the water balance of the area,
Incorporate the water balance metamodel into the user terminal used by the administrator in the predetermined area,
The manager obtains a water balance as a monitoring index using the water balance metamodel.

In the present invention,
Judge the quality of the index by comparing the water balance obtained using the water balance metamodel with a predetermined reference value,
When the determination result is negative, it is preferable that the operator of the water circulation model executes a simulation calculation using the circulation model.

In the present invention,
In addition, a second learned metamodel that calculates an index other than the water balance using one of the input data as the water balance is constructed.
In addition to the water balance metamodel, it is preferable to incorporate the second learned metamodel into a user terminal used by an administrator.

The figure which shows the outline | summary of a system. The flowchart which shows the operation | movement procedure of a resource management support system. The flowchart which shows the operation procedure of a resource management support system. The flowchart which shows the operation | movement procedure of a resource management support system. The flowchart which shows the operation | movement procedure of a resource management support system. The system schematic of a water circulation simulation apparatus. The figure which shows a mode that a water balance metamodel is constructed | assembled. The system schematic diagram of metamodel operation PC (user terminal). The figure which shows the example of a screen for observation data registration. The figure which shows the example of a condition selection screen. The figure which shows the example of a condition selection screen. The figure which shows the example of a display screen of a calculation result and a determination result. The figure which shows the example which added the meta model of the 2nd step.

An embodiment of the present invention will be illustrated and described with reference to reference numerals attached to elements in the drawing.
(First embodiment)
First, an outline of the present embodiment will be described.
The resource management support system provided by the present invention does not directly use GETFLOWS (registered trademark) itself, which is a comprehensive simulation device for water circulation, but has learned a part of the functions of GETFLOWS (registered trademark). It uses a metamodel. If GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is used, not only the water balance in a certain area but also the water behavior at an arbitrary point can be obtained as a detailed simulation result. However, we are not aware of academic research, and it is not always necessary to have a detailed simulation analysis of the entire area when a local government manages water resources as an administrative measure. Although there is a situation specific to each local government, it cannot be generally stated, but prediction of dam water level transition, groundwater level transition prediction at the intake site, river water level transition prediction at the reference observation point, and water balance transition prediction, etc. It is only necessary to determine some indicators and monitor (monitor) these determined indicators.

FIG. 1 shows an overview of the system.
Each of the local governments is provided with learned metamodels 300A, 300B, and 300C obtained by tracing a part of the function of GETFLOWS (registered trademark). Then, the local government uses the meta models 300A, 300B, and 300C to check the index value of each monitoring item and whether each index satisfies a predetermined standard. If an indicator that deviates from the predetermined standard appears, a detailed evaluation using GETFLOWS (registered trademark) 100 is performed, a specific measure is examined, and the measure is reflected.

2, 3, 4, and 5 are flowcharts showing the operation procedure of the resource management support system.
The operation method of the resource management support system will be described according to the flowchart.
The first thing to do is to build a simulation model in GETFLOWS (registered trademark) (ST100). Information on the local government area that uses this resource management support system is input, and a water circulation model for this local government area is constructed. GETFLOWS (registered trademark) itself is a known device, and the applicant and the inventors have introduced it in many documents, and GETFLOWS (registered trademark) itself is not the essence of the present invention. Therefore, a detailed description is omitted and briefly described (see FIG. 6).

FIG. 6 is a system schematic diagram of the water circulation simulation apparatus (GETFLOWS (registered trademark) 100).
A four-dimensional water circulation analysis simulation program, that is, the main body of GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is stored in the program memory 110. In constructing a water cycle model, there are, for example, natural environment data such as topographic data, geological data, and water quality data, as well as data on artificial factors such as land use status, water intake points, and water intake. In addition, historical change data and actual measurement data are taken into account as necessary. These are input as basic data 120 in advance. From these basic data (120) and the analysis simulation program (110), the water circulation model 140 of the area is obtained. Then, the calculation (130) is performed based on the basic data 120 and the analysis simulation program 110 while taking the time scale into consideration, thereby constructing a four-dimensional water circulation model 140 from the past to the present in the region. .

  It is of course necessary to verify whether the water circulation model thus produced is valid (ST110). For example, strict verification is added, such as whether the current river shape can be reproduced or whether the water behavior at the main point can be reproduced when actual weather conditions are input. If there are insufficient points in the water circulation model, the process returns to ST100 to construct a more accurate water circulation model.

  Once the water cycle model is completed in this way, the metamodel is constructed next. A meta model is prepared for each monitoring index. There may be more than one index to be monitored, but a meta model that is specially learned for each monitoring index is constructed. If the local government wants to monitor multiple indicators, it will provide a package that combines multiple metamodels as needed. Note that it is theoretically impossible to create a meta model so that a plurality of monitoring indexes are calculated together with one meta model. However, the calculation load becomes too heavy. There may be a problem that a plurality of operations may not converge well. In addition, if one meta model is constructed for each monitoring index, there is an advantage that it can be easily added or subtracted later according to user needs. However, the present invention is not limited to “one meta model for each monitoring index”, and a meta model that collectively calculates two or more indices may be constructed as long as the indices correlate to some extent.

  In constructing the metamodel, a monitoring index is determined (ST120). Here, the water balance is used as a monitoring index. The water balance is the difference between the inflow and outflow of water in the area. For example, if the water balance exceeds a predetermined reference value and becomes too positive in a certain period such as one week or one month, there is a risk of river increase or groundwater level rise. Or, if the water balance becomes too negative for a certain period, it will lead to problems such as groundwater, springs, and dam reservoirs wither.

  Here, the water balance is a value that cannot be measured directly. For example, the property is different from a value that can be directly measured, such as a river water level or a groundwater level at a certain point. However, when comprehensively considering the water administration of a certain area, not only the direct measurement values at multiple points, but also the current situation from a comprehensive point of view of the total water balance in that area Future prediction is necessary. According to the simulation calculation using the water circulation model of GETFLOWS (registered trademark), since all the water behavior in the area is obtained, the water balance is of course obtained. However, it is difficult for local governments to operate GETFLOWS (registered trademark). Therefore, a metamodel that can be output with the same accuracy as that of GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is constructed for the water balance only (ST130). As a method for constructing such a metamodel, for example, a method of learning by an artificial neural network is well known. Here is a brief description.

FIG. 3 is an outline of the procedure for constructing the water balance metamodel.
First, a plurality of sets of input data are prepared (ST131). Input data includes meteorological conditions (precipitation, temperature, humidity), river and groundwater levels, and intake at each intake point. Using these input data, a simulation operation is executed with GETFLOWS (registered trademark) (ST132). Thereby, the correct answer (water balance) for each input data set is obtained. Learning data is prepared by pairing the input data set and the correct answer (water balance) (ST133). Then, using the learning data, the neural network model is trained to obtain a meta model obtained by tracing GETFLOWS (Registered Trademark) regarding the water balance (ST134) (see FIG. 7). It is verified whether the metamodel obtained in this way is valid (ST135), and if there are insufficient points, the process returns to ST131 to construct a more valid metamodel.

  The metamodel (water balance metamodel) obtained in this way is installed in a local government personal computer, and the water balance metamodel is operated (ST200). The procedure of the operation stage will be described with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS. FIG. 8 is a system schematic diagram of a metamodel operation PC (user terminal). In short, the learned metamodel 411 and an operation program 412 for operating this metamodel are installed on a general personal computer. First, input data necessary for obtaining a water balance is prepared (ST210). For example, local weather information (210) can be obtained periodically from a private weather information service.

  In addition, the local government conducts fixed-point observations, and registers observation data (220) such as rivers, groundwater levels, and dam reservoir volumes. FIG. 9 shows an example of a screen for registering observation data. This interface is provided by the operation program 412. On the registration screen, data input cells such as observation item, observation point, observation date, observation value (in this case, water temperature) are given, and the registrant inputs in accordance with the instructions on the screen.

  In addition to simple simulations using actual observation data, simple simulations may be performed under temporary conditions for future plans and disaster prevention plans. Since there are two different types of simulation operations due to the nature of the present invention, in the following description, comprehensive simulation using GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is referred to as detailed simulation, and simple simulation using a metamodel. The calculation will be referred to as simple simulation. When a simple simulation is performed under temporary conditions, fictitious data set based on a predetermined scenario is input as a prediction input file 230.

  And the simple simulation calculation by a water balance metamodel is performed (ST220). In this calculation, input data must be selected. FIG. 10 is an example of a condition selection screen. The water balance evaluation metamodel 411 is selected as a metamodel, and further, whether to perform a simple simulation using the actual observation data 220 or to perform a simple simulation using the prediction input file 230 is selected. Furthermore, when the actual observation data 220 is used, an evaluation period is set as shown in FIG. Then, by executing a simple simulation calculation (clicking the evaluation button 491), a calculation result 492 as shown in FIG. 12 is obtained (ST230).

  There is a meta model for each index, and there is a difference in input data necessary for calculation for each meta model. Since the water balance is taken as an example here, the weather conditions (precipitation, temperature, humidity), river, groundwater level, water intake at each water intake point, etc. are data necessary for simple simulation. However, for example, if the pollutant balance (NOx, SOx balance) is to be obtained, wind intensity and direction are required as weather conditions, or pollutant observation data is required as fixed-point observation values. Or if it is a calorie | heat amount balance, the amount of clouds will be needed as a weather condition, and underground temperature will be needed as a fixed-point observation value. Which operation data is required for the calculation according to the selection of the meta model is registered in advance in the operation program 412.

  If a simple simulation calculation is executed, a water balance is obtained as an output, but it must be evaluated whether this water balance is within a predetermined range. Therefore, an evaluation reference value corresponding to the water balance is registered in the operation program 412. Then, the operation program 412 compares the water balance as the calculation result with the evaluation reference value, and automatically determines whether or not the gap between the two is in an appropriate range (OK or NG). The determination result is displayed together with the calculation result as in the example of FIG. 12 (ST240). In the following description, index determination on the metamodel operation PC is referred to as primary determination.

If the evaluation result is OK in the primary determination (ST250: YES), data is recorded (ST410), and the loop from ST210 to ST410 is repeated until the end condition is satisfied.
In addition to being stored, the recorded data will be used for supervisor approval and publication.

In actual operation situations, it may be preferable to leave a little margin when setting the threshold for primary determination.
The simulation calculation by the meta model 411 is still simple, and it is not always possible to calculate the index (water balance) with exactly the same accuracy as the detailed simulation using GETFLOWS (registered trademark).
Therefore, it is better to set a strict threshold with some margin on the safe side.

  Here, if the evaluation result is NG in the primary determination (ST250: NO), the process proceeds to a more detailed secondary determination stage. If the local government cannot clear the primary determination, it requests the GETFLOWS (registered trademark) operator for more detailed simulation calculation. That is, a detailed simulation by GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is executed (ST310). Then, the more accurate simulation result obtained by GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is compared with the evaluation reference value (ST320). The evaluation reference value and threshold used in the secondary determination may be more severe than those used in the primary determination. Further, if GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is used, not only the water balance but also all other indices can be obtained, so various determinations may also be made together with other indices.

  If the result of the secondary determination is an OK determination, data may be recorded (ST410) and the process may return to ST210. On the other hand, if the result of the secondary determination is NG determination, it is necessary to consider specific countermeasures (ST340). Specific measures may be, for example, water intake restrictions or flood damage measures. If it is a future plan, the development plan may be changed.

According to this embodiment, the following effects are obtained.
(1) It is difficult for a local government to operate an advanced comprehensive simulation device (GETFLOWS (registered trademark)) by itself.
On the other hand, by using the learned metamodel, each local government can obtain a monitoring index (water balance) at any time and make a necessary judgment. It can be expected to lead to prompt and accurate judgment.

(2) To use the comprehensive simulation software (GETFLOWS (registered trademark)), a very high overall skill is required. For example, appropriately adjusting a wide variety of parameters would require considerable knowledge and effort.
On the other hand, if a meta model for obtaining a limited monitoring index (water balance) is operated, the input items are also determined, and thus an easy-to-use interface (operation screen) can be provided. For example, a system that operates properly can be realized by operating according to the manual, and can be used by many people. This also leads to work sharing.

(3) When constructing a meta model, one meta model is used for each monitoring item. Therefore, the accuracy of each meta model can be increased and the calculation load is reduced. And it becomes easy to rearrange the package to the user needs.

(Second Embodiment)
In the first embodiment, the meta model for obtaining the water balance as a simulation result has been described as an example. Regardless of water, whether it is pollutants or heat, the balance is three-dimensional and comprehensive information, and it is basically a monitoring item for local governments that entrust the administration of the entire region. It can be said that it is a good indicator that is fundamental, rational and intuitive. Balanced measures will be difficult if you rely only on actual observation information at several locations. On the other hand, the water balance is an easy-to-understand index for persons in charge and departments familiar with water administration, but it is somewhat difficult to understand for the general public, parliament, and other departments. Therefore, it is preferable that the value of the water balance be linked to an easy-to-understand index for the general public while carrying the value of the water balance as a reasonable reasoning. Therefore, the metamodel is relayed so that the water balance is linked to an easy-to-understand index such as the water level at a representative observation point.

  FIG. 13 shows an example in which a meta model for outputting a desired index is added as the second-stage meta model 420. The second-stage metamodel 420 calculates a desired index using at least one of input data as a water balance and using other data as necessary. The desired index may be, for example, natural well-known water or the amount of spring water of a hot spring, or the water level of a river or groundwater. These correspond to the observed values at a certain point. The index value obtained by the second-stage meta model 420 will be named the second index. Such a second index is easy to understand for the general public, and in some areas, it is often familiar to the historical background. Such easy-to-understand indicators are likely to lead to specific actions and are considered to be more useful indicators.

  Here, it is of course possible to build a meta model that directly calculates the second index (for example, the amount of spring water at a certain point) from the input data (such as weather conditions and environmental observation values) by skipping the first-stage meta model 411. . Still, it makes sense to divide it into the first and second stages. This is because the second-stage metamodel 420 can use the water balance as input data. The water balance itself is a value that cannot be observed directly, so it cannot be used as the first-stage input data. However, for example, when considering future predictions and disaster prevention plans, there are cases where it is desired to see the movement of other indicators by shaking the water balance as a parameter. Even if the second index (for example, the amount of spring water at a certain point) is obtained directly from raw observation data (such as weather conditions and environmental observation values) or from the prediction value of the observation data, the meaning and basis of the numbers are too However, it is too black box to make any reasonable reasoning, and the meaning is unknown. If this happens, the government will eventually rely on intuition and experience, and the meaning of introducing the system will be diminished.

  Therefore, apart from the first-stage metamodel that outputs the (water) balance, a second-stage metamodel that can use the water balance as input data is prepared. By explicitly showing the water balance in the table, it is possible to reasonably infer the background of the numerical value of the second indicator, and it can be expected to lead to a more appropriate policy.

Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and can be changed as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention.
Water is an example, and GETFLOWS (registered trademark) is also an example.
Items to be monitored include water, various resources, pollutants, and heat.
A typical example of a comprehensive simulation apparatus corresponding to water is GETFLOWS (registered trademark). However, if the monitoring items are changed, the comprehensive simulation apparatus of the circulation in consideration of the spatial and temporal scales naturally changes.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 ... GETFLOWS (trademark), 110 ... Program memory, 120 ... Basic data, 140 ... Water circulation model, 220 ... Observation data, 230 ... Input file for prediction, 300A, 300B, 300C ... Meta model, 411 ... Water balance evaluation meta Model, 412... Operation program, 420.

Claims (6)

  A correlation between first input data given to a circulation model that reproduces a circulation state of resources in a predetermined area and correct data output from the circulation model when the first input data is given by machine learning Includes multiple modeled metamodels,
  The first input data is a part of data that can be input to the circulation model,
  The plurality of metamodels are modeled using the different first input data,
  For each of the plurality of metamodels, an input unit that gives second input data of the same type as the first input data used when modeling the metamodel;
  An output unit that outputs an operation result derived by the metamodel when the second input data is given.
  Resource management support system.   As the plurality of metamodels, there are a first metamodel and a second metamodel,
  The second metamodel inputs the calculation result of the first metamodel as the second input data of the second metamodel.
  The resource management support system according to claim 1.   An evaluation unit that evaluates the calculation result based on a predetermined evaluation reference value;
  The evaluation reference value is stricter than other evaluation reference values used for evaluation of the circulation model.
  The resource management support system according to claim 1.   The circulation model is a water circulation model that reproduces the circulation state of water in a predetermined area,
  Including at least one of the plurality of metamodels as a water balance model in the predetermined area;
  The output unit outputs a water balance derived from the water balance model.
  The resource management support system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.   The evaluation unit determines whether the water balance is good or not by comparing the water balance with the evaluation reference value.
  The resource management support system according to claim 4 quoting claim 3.   The second metamodel inputs the water balance derived by the water balance model as the second input data of the second metamodel.
  The resource management support system according to claim 4, wherein the resource management support system according to claim 4 is cited.