JP6009972B2 - Damage situation estimation device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for estimating the damage status of a communication network during a natural disaster such as an earthquake.

  In a communication network, when each communication device installed in each station detects a device failure or signal loss, the detected content is transmitted to the monitoring system as an alarm, and the operator of the communication network reaches this monitoring system. The failure location is determined based on the alarm to be taken, and necessary measures such as switching to the spare system are taken (see Patent Document 1).

JP 2009-246679 A

  However, for example, when a natural disaster such as an earthquake occurs, a plurality of communication apparatuses simultaneously fail in a large number of communication stations, and a plurality of wired or wireless transmission paths connecting the communication stations can be disconnected. In this case, a large number of alarms that do not reach the monitoring system occur in the first place due to simultaneous failures at a number of locations, making it difficult to grasp the damage status of the communication network.

  The present invention provides a damage situation estimation apparatus that grasps the damage situation of a communication network even in a large-scale disaster.

According to one aspect of the present invention, the damage situation estimation device includes an alarm acquisition unit that acquires an alarm issued by a communication device of a communication network to be monitored, a disaster information acquisition unit that acquires disaster information related to a disaster from the Internet, First estimating means for estimating a failure level of each communication station building of the communication network based on an alarm acquired by the alarm acquiring means; second estimating means for estimating a disaster level for each predetermined area based on the disaster information; , For each communication station of the communication network, comprising a third estimation means for estimating the damage level of the communication station based on the failure level of the communication station and the disaster level of the district to which the communication station belongs , The first estimating means holds information about the points of each alarm and information about alarms that occur at the same time. Based on the information and the acquired alarm, the failure level is determined by determining a missing alarm that is an alarm that has occurred but could not be acquired, and totaling the score of the acquired alarm and the missing alarm for each communication station Is estimated .

  By acquiring disaster information from the Internet in addition to alarms issued by communication devices of the communication network, it is possible to grasp the damage status of the communication network even during a large-scale disaster.

The system block diagram containing the damage condition estimation apparatus by one Embodiment. The block diagram of the damage condition estimation apparatus by one Embodiment. The figure which shows the vector corresponding to disaster information. Explanatory drawing of determination of a disaster level. The figure which shows the score example of an alarm.

  Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following drawings, components that are not necessary for the description of the embodiments are omitted from the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram according to the present embodiment. The damage status estimation device 100 is a device for estimating the damage status of the communication network 100 and receives an alarm from each communication device of the communication network 200. Note that the alarm transmitted from each communication device to the damage status estimation device 100 includes information for identifying the communication device, and the damage status estimation device 100 issues an alarm based on the information included in the alarm. It is possible to specify in which communication station the communication apparatus is installed.

  The damage situation estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment further has a function of collecting predetermined disaster information from the Internet 300. In addition, disaster information collected from the Internet 300 includes information on the seismic intensity of earthquakes provided on the homepage of the Japan Meteorological Agency, etc., information on the height of the tsunami, and information on the location of each site provided by electric power companies or news sites. Includes power outage information. Further, the disaster information includes information transmitted to the Internet 300 by a large number of persons in charge of individuals or companies, for example, information transmitted by Twitter (registered trademark).

  In FIG. 1, the communication network 200 and the Internet 300 are shown as independent networks, but actually, a part of the Internet 300 may be included in the communication network 200. That is, the communication network 200 to be monitored by the damage situation estimation apparatus 100 is divided into a network unrelated to the Internet 300 and a part constituting the Internet 300. Similarly, the Internet 300 is divided into a part configured by the communication network 200 that is a monitoring target of the damage situation estimation apparatus 100 and a part configured by a communication network of another provider.

  FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of the damage situation estimation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment. The disaster information acquisition unit 11 acquires disaster information from the Internet 300 and outputs it to the disaster situation estimation unit 13. The disaster situation estimation unit 13 classifies the disaster situation of each district into a predetermined level based on the disaster information acquired from the Internet 300. In the following description, for example, the disaster level is classified into 10 levels from the lowest level 0 to the highest level 9. In addition, the granularity (for example, municipal unit) of a district is decided beforehand.

  Hereinafter, the process of the disaster situation estimation part 13 is demonstrated. The disaster situation estimation unit 13 includes information on the seismic intensity of each region-provided earthquake provided on the homepage of the Japan Meteorological Agency, etc., information on the height of the tsunami, and each district provided by the electric power company or each news site. The blackout information is first disaster information and is represented by a vector shown in FIG. 3 for each district.

  In the vector of FIG. 3, “district” stores information indicating the area. Further, the “seismic intensity” stores a value corresponding to the seismic intensity of the district acquired from a homepage such as the Japan Meteorological Agency. Specifically, for example, if the seismic intensity is less than 5, the relationship between the seismic intensity and the value is determined in advance, such as “0.6” if the seismic intensity is higher than 5, and the seismic intensity obtained from the homepage. Set the corresponding value to "Seismic intensity" based on. Similarly, the “tsunami height” stores a value corresponding to the height of the tsunami in the area acquired from the homepage of the Japan Meteorological Agency or the like. As with the seismic intensity, the relationship between the tsunami height and the value was determined in advance, such as “0.25” if the tsunami height was 10 m, and “0.5” if the tsunami height was 20 m. Set the corresponding value to "tsunami height" based on the tsunami height. In addition, the “presence / absence of power outage” is set to a value determined in advance depending on whether or not there is a power outage in the area provided by the electric power company or each news site, for example, the value “0.5” when there is a power outage. When there is no power failure, the value “0” is stored. In “date and time”, the date and time when information was last acquired is set among “seismic intensity”, “tsunami height”, and “power outage presence / absence”. In the case of the first disaster information, a fixed value, for example, a value “0” is set for “others”.

  Furthermore, the disaster situation estimation unit 13 acquires information transmitted to the Internet 300 by a large number of persons in charge of individuals or companies, for example, information transmitted via Twitter (registered trademark), analyzes them, and analyzes the second disaster information. As a vector shown in FIG. The information transmitted by Twitter (registered trademark) includes, for example, information on seismic intensity, but may not include information on “tsunami height” and “power outage presence / absence”. In this case, the value of information not included is set to a predetermined value such as “0”. In the second disaster information, in addition to the seismic intensity, the height of the tsunami, and the presence or absence of a power outage, words such as “collapse”, “impossible”, “fire”, etc. A word score is determined, and if a predetermined word is included in information transmitted by Twitter (registered trademark), a value corresponding to the score of the included word is set to “other”. One vector of the second disaster information corresponds to one piece of information transmitted from a certain individual or company. Therefore, although the first disaster information is only one vector for one district, one or more vectors can be generated for one district for the second disaster information.

  The disaster situation estimation unit 13 obtains each vector of the first disaster information and the second disaster information whose “date and time” are within a predetermined period in the past as “seismic intensity”, “tsunami height”, “power outage presence / absence”, “other”. The points on the four-dimensional coordinates having the following four values are divided into a predetermined number of clusters by the K-means method and grouped.

  Subsequently, the disaster situation estimation unit 13 calculates a first representative coordinate and a second representative coordinate for each cluster. The first representative coordinates of a certain cluster are the average values of the corresponding elements of the coordinates corresponding to the first disaster information in the cluster. That is, the values of “seismic intensity”, “tsunami height”, “power outage presence / absence”, and “other” in the first representative coordinates of a cluster are the “seismic intensity” of the coordinates corresponding to the first disaster information in the cluster, respectively. , “Tsunami height”, “Power outage presence / absence”, “Other” average values. Similarly, the second representative coordinate of a certain cluster is the average value of the corresponding elements of the coordinates corresponding to the second disaster information in the cluster. Subsequently, the disaster situation estimation unit 13 calculates the sum of the values of “seismic intensity”, “tsunami height”, and “power outage presence / absence”, which are each element of the first representative table of the cluster, as the first disaster degree ( V1) is calculated. In addition, the disaster situation estimation unit 13 multiplies the sum of the values of “seismic intensity”, “tsunami height”, and “power outage presence / absence”, which are the elements of the second representative coordinates of the cluster, by the value of “other”, Calculated as the second disaster degree (V2) of the cluster.

Finally, the disaster situation estimation unit 13 obtains the disaster level of the cluster from the first disaster level (V1) and the second disaster level (V2) of a cluster using the following formula.
Disaster level = V1 x w1 + V2 x w2
In the above formula, w1 is a predetermined weight of the first disaster degree, w2 is a predetermined weight of the second disaster degree, and is a value different from w1.

  The disaster situation estimation unit 13 determines the disaster level of each cluster based on the relationship between the predetermined disaster level and the disaster level (10 levels in this example). The disaster situation estimation unit 13 sets the disaster level of each cluster as the disaster level of the district of the first disaster information and the second disaster information included in the cluster. Since there is one first disaster information and a plurality of second disaster information for one district, these disaster information may belong to different clusters. In this case, the largest disaster level is set as the disaster level of the area. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, when there are four clusters and the disaster information (first or second) for district # 1 belongs to both cluster # 1 and cluster # 2, the disaster level of district # 1 is The disaster level 5 is determined to be large. In addition, in the state shown in FIG. 4, district # 2 is at disaster level 7, district # 3 is at disaster level 4, district # 4 is at disaster level 5, and district # 5 is at disaster level 7. The disaster situation estimation unit 13 outputs the determined disaster level of each district to the damage situation estimation unit 15.

  In the present embodiment, as described above, when each disaster information of a certain district belongs to a plurality of clusters, the disaster level of the relevant district is the maximum of the disaster levels of the cluster to which the relevant district belongs. However, a minimum value or an average value can also be used.

  Returning to FIG. 2, the alarm acquisition unit 12 acquires an alarm from each communication device of the communication network 200 and outputs the alarm to the failure state estimation unit 14. The failure situation estimation unit 14 calculates the failure degree of each communication station based on the received alarm, and at the same predetermined stage as the disaster level, in this example, from the lowest level 0 to the highest level 9 in 10 stages. Classify. For this reason, the failure state estimation unit 14 calculates the alarm score issued by each communication device shown in FIG. 5A, and the adjustment factor for the specific communication device and the deficiency alarm as shown in FIG. 5B. keeping.

  Hereinafter, the adjustment coefficient will be described. For example, in FIG. 5A, when an alarm A is received from a WDM (wavelength multiplexing apparatus), the score is 8. However, as shown in FIG. 5B, the adjustment coefficient from WDM # 1 is doubled. This indicates that when an alarm is received from WDM # 1 which is a specific communication device, the alarm score shown in FIG. 5A is doubled. Therefore, when alarm A is received from WDM # 1, the score is 16. In addition, designation | designated of a specific communication apparatus can be designated for every specific communication apparatus of a specific communication station building. A specific communication device can also be specified by the type of WDM or its capacity.

  Further, the missing alarm means an alarm that is supposed to have occurred but was not actually received by the damage situation estimation apparatus 100. For example, when a plurality of wavelength paths are transmitted by a single optical fiber by wavelength multiplexing, a plurality of wavelength paths simultaneously become obstacles due to the cutting of the optical fiber, and therefore, a plurality of wavelengths connected by the plurality of wavelength paths An alarm is generated simultaneously in the communication device. The fault condition estimation unit 14 holds information about the alarms that occur at the same time, and should be generated at the same time from the alarms that have already been received. . Note that information about alarms that occur at the same time can be generated by the damage situation estimation apparatus 100 from information indicating the type and connection relationship of each communication apparatus of the communication network 200. In addition, by learning from a warning received at normal times, information about a warning that occurs at the same time can be generated. In FIG. 5 (B), the missing alarm is half the score shown in FIG. 5 (A).

  The failure state estimation unit 14 calculates the received alarm and missing alarm scores for each communication device, and further calculates the failure degree of the communication station by counting the points of each communication device for each communication station. And the failure level of the said communication station is determined by normalizing with the total score of all the alarms which generate | occur | produce in all the communication apparatuses of the said communication station. For example, if there are three communication devices in the communication station A and the respective alarm points are 8, 12, and 16, the failure degree of the communication station A is 36 points. In addition, the total score of all alarms generated in all communication devices of the communication station building is 100 points. In this case, for example, 0-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, 81-90, 91-100, If the levels are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, the failure level of the communication station A is 3. The failure situation estimation unit 14 outputs the obtained failure level of each communication station to the damage situation estimation unit 15.

The damage situation estimation unit 15 receives the disaster level D1 of each district from the disaster situation estimation unit 13, and the failure level D2 of each communication station from the failure situation estimation unit 14. The damage status estimation unit 15 sets the disaster level D1 of a certain district as the disaster level D1 of a communication station building in the district. And the damage level of each communication station building is calculated by the following formula.
Damage level = (a1 x D1 + a2 x D2) / (a1 + a2) (The decimal point is rounded off)
Here, a1 and a2 are predetermined weights, and the damage level of each communication station is estimated in 10 stages by the above formula. The damage status estimation unit 15 outputs the damage level of each communication station to the display unit 16, and the display unit 16 displays the damage level of each communication station to the maintenance person.

  With the above configuration, it is possible to grasp the damage status of the communication network even during a large-scale disaster.

  The damage situation estimation apparatus according to the present invention can be realized by a program that causes a computer to operate as the damage situation estimation apparatus. These computer programs can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium or distributed via a network.

Claims (7)

An alarm acquisition means for acquiring an alarm issued by a communication device of a monitored communication network;
Disaster information acquisition means for acquiring disaster information related to disasters from the Internet;
First estimation means for estimating a failure level of each communication station of the communication network based on the alarm acquired by the alarm acquisition means;
Second estimating means for estimating a disaster level for each predetermined district based on the disaster information;
For each communication station of the communication network, third estimation means for estimating the damage level of the communication station based on the failure level of the communication station and the disaster level of the district to which the communication station belongs;
Equipped with a,
The first estimation means holds information about the points of each alarm and information about simultaneously generated alarms, and can be acquired based on the information about the simultaneously generated alarms and the acquired alarms. A damage situation estimation apparatus characterized by determining a failure alarm that is considered to have not occurred, and estimating the failure level by counting the number of the acquired alarm and the failure alarm for each communication station . The disaster information, according to claim 1, characterized in that it comprises a first disaster information obtained from the home page of the organization that provides information about the disaster, the second disaster information is information individuals originated to the Internet Damage situation estimation device. The second estimating means generates a vector for each district having values of n disaster items (n is 2 or more) based on the first disaster information, and corresponds to the second disaster information transmitted by each individual. Generating a vector for each district having the values of the n disaster items, dividing the generated vector into n-dimensional coordinates into a predetermined number of clusters by a clustering method, and determining a cluster to which each vector belongs, The disaster level of the cluster is determined according to the value of the n disaster items of the vector belonging to the cluster, and the disaster level of the district is obtained from the disaster level of the cluster to which the vector of the district belongs. Item 3. The damage status estimation apparatus according to Item 2 . The damage state estimation apparatus according to claim 3 , wherein the second estimation means sets the disaster level of the district as the maximum value, the minimum value, or the average value of the disaster levels of the cluster to which the vector of the district belongs. . It said second estimation means, upon determining the disaster level cluster, claim 3, characterized by applying the vectors generated from the first disaster information, different weights to vector generated from the second disaster information or damage situation estimating apparatus according to 4. The failure level and the disaster level are represented in the same stage, and the third estimating means obtains a sum of a value obtained by multiplying the failure level by a first weight and a value obtained by multiplying the disaster level by a second weight, The damage state estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5 , wherein a damage level of a communication station is estimated by dividing the sum by the sum of the first weight and the second weight. . A program that causes a computer to function as the damage situation estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 6 .

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