JP5735888B2 - Population calculation device and population calculation method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a population calculation apparatus and a population calculation method for calculating a population based on the number of mobile devices.

  It is known to calculate the number of mobile devices based on the number of registered mobile devices, and to grasp this as the number of populations. For example, Patent Document 1 (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2003-122877) describes that the number of mobile phones is calculated using the location information DB of the mobile phone, and this is calculated as the population of a predetermined area.

JP 2003-122877 A

  However, the above-described conventional technique has a problem that it cannot grasp the rapid increase or decrease in the number of people in a short time. In other words, the mobile phone location registration process used by the conventional technology is determined to be performed in a cycle of 54 minutes according to the communication standard, so the number of mobile phones that move within 54 minutes cannot be grasped.

  The present invention has been made to solve such problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a population calculation device and a population calculation method capable of grasping a rapid increase or decrease in the number of people in a short time.

  The population calculation device according to the present invention includes a first counting unit that counts the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on first position information registered by the mobile device in a first cycle, and a first mobile device that has a mobile device shorter than the first cycle. Based on the second position information registered in two cycles, the second totaling unit that totals the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area, and the movement totaled by the second totaling unit among the mobile units totaled by the first totaling unit Common unit totaling means for totaling the number of mobile machines that coincide with the machine, the number of mobile units totaled by the first totaling means, the number of mobile units totaled by the second totaling means, and the movement totaled by the common unit totaling means Population calculating means for calculating the population in a predetermined area using the number of machines.

  The population calculation method according to the present invention is a population calculation method performed by a population calculation device, wherein a first counting step of counting the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on first location information registered by a mobile device in a first period. And a second counting step for counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on the second position information that the mobile device registers in a second cycle shorter than the first cycle, and the mobile device tabulated in the first counting step. Of these, the common unit counting step for counting the number of mobile devices that match the mobile device counted in the second counting step, the number of mobile devices counted in the first counting step, and the mobile device counted in the second counting step And a population calculating step of calculating a population in a predetermined area using the number and the number of mobile devices tabulated in the common unit counting step.

  According to the present invention, the number of mobile machines tabulated by the first tabulation means, the number of mobile machines tabulated by the second tabulation means, and the number of mobile machines tabulated by the common part tabulation means are used, Population is calculated. Then, the first position information registered in the first period and the second position information registered in the second period are supplemented with each other. Thereby, for example, even if the first location information alone cannot capture the rapid increase or decrease of the population, the number of mobile devices that register the second location information is small, and the population cannot be calculated only with the second location information. The first position information and the second position information are supplemented to each other, and it becomes possible to grasp the rapid increase or decrease of the population.

  Here, as a configuration that effectively achieves the above-described operation, the population calculating means uses the number of mobile machines counted by the second counting means and the number of mobile machines counted by the common part counting means, and counts by the first counting means. The time granularity refinement coefficient for adjusting the increase / decrease in the number of mobile devices in a period set shorter than the first cycle with respect to the number of mobile devices thus calculated is calculated, and time is calculated for the number of mobile devices counted by the first counting means. An example is a configuration in which the population is calculated by multiplying the granularity refinement coefficient.

  Further, as a configuration that effectively achieves the above-described operation, the population calculating means uses the number of mobile machines counted by the first counting means and the number of mobile machines counted by the common part counting means, and uses the second number for the first position information. There is a configuration in which the usage rate of the location information is calculated, and the population is calculated by dividing the number of mobile devices tabulated by the second tabulation unit by the usage rate.

  Further, as a configuration that effectively achieves the above-described operation, the population calculating means is counted by the number of mobile machines counted by the first counting means, the number of mobile machines counted by the second counting means, and the common part counting means There is a configuration in which the number of users is calculated using the number of mobile devices, and the population is calculated by converting the number of users into the population using an expansion coefficient for converting the number of users into the population.

  Further, as a configuration that effectively achieves the above-described operation, the first counting means performs the same movement at the time when the mobile device registers the first position information for each of the first position information registered in the predetermined area during the predetermined period. The first feature amount is calculated using two or more of the time when the machine registered the previous first position information and the time when the same mobile machine registered the next first position information, The number of mobile devices in the predetermined area is totaled based on the total sum of the one feature quantity, and the second totaling means is configured so that the mobile device uses the second position information for each of the second position information registered in the predetermined area during the predetermined period. The second time using two or more of the time when the same mobile device registered the second location information immediately before the same mobile device and the time when the same mobile device registered the second location information one after. A mobile device in a predetermined area is calculated based on the sum of the second feature values. The common unit counting means is configured so that the mobile device registers the first position information in the predetermined area within the predetermined area for each second position information registered in the predetermined area during the predetermined period. Two or more of the time at which the position information is registered, the time at which the same mobile station registers the second previous position information, and the time at which the same mobile station registers the second second position information are used. The common feature amount is calculated, and the number of mobile devices that match the mobile device aggregated by the second aggregation unit among the mobile devices aggregated by the first aggregation unit is calculated based on the sum of the common feature amounts Is mentioned.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to grasp a sudden increase or decrease in the number of people in a short time.

1 is a system configuration diagram of a communication system including a first embodiment of a population calculating apparatus according to the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of 1st Embodiment of the population calculation apparatus which concerns on this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the population calculation procedure of the population calculation apparatus of FIG. It is a schematic diagram which shows the exit / entry of the mobile device to the area of population calculation object. It is explanatory drawing which shows the management table which a long cycle data total part has. It is explanatory drawing which shows the management table which a short cycle data total part has. It is a flowchart which shows the population calculation procedure of 2nd Embodiment of the population calculation apparatus which concerns on this invention. It is a figure which illustrates a related sector. It is a flowchart which shows the population calculation procedure of 3rd Embodiment of the population calculation apparatus which concerns on this invention. It is a figure for demonstrating the view of terminal number estimation. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method which concerns on terminal number estimation.

  Hereinafter, a preferred embodiment of a population calculating apparatus according to the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram of a communication system including a first embodiment of a population calculating apparatus according to the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, a communication system 10 including a population calculation device according to the present embodiment includes a mobile device 100, a BTS (base station) 200, an RNC (radio control device) 300, an exchange 400, and a management center 500. It is configured. The management center 500 includes a social sensor unit 501, a petamining unit 502, a mobile demography unit 503, and a visualization solution unit 504.

  The mobile device 100 performs registration processing of the first position information in the first cycle (here, a cycle of 54 minutes). The first position information is stored in a social sensor unit 501 described later via the BTS 200, the RNC 300, and the exchange 400. The first location information is expressed in units of sectors and base stations that equally divide the BTS 200 communication area into a plurality, and the ID of the sector or base station in which the mobile device 100 is located is recorded as the first location information. Is done. The first position information may be latitude / longitude information measured by a function provided by the BTS 200 (for example, PRACH PD) or a function (GPS or the like) of the mobile device.

  Also, some mobile devices 100 perform the second position information registration process in a second cycle (here, a 5-minute cycle) shorter than the first cycle. Then, the second position information is accumulated in a social sensor unit 501 described later via the BTS 200, the RNC 300, and the exchange 400. Note that the second position information is acquired using a function provided by the BTS 200 (for example, PRACH PD) or a function (such as GPS) that the mobile device has, and the latitude and longitude where the mobile device 100 is located are used as the second position information. To be recorded. The second position information is expressed in units of sectors or base stations that equally divide the BTS 200 communication area into a plurality of areas, and the ID of the sector or base station in which the mobile device 100 is located is recorded as the second position information. May be.

  The social sensor unit 501 is a server device that accumulates data including position information of the mobile device 100 and the like. The social sensor unit 501 acquires and stores data in response to a data reception request from the exchange 400 or by issuing a data transmission request to the exchange 400.

  The petamining unit 502 is a server device that converts data received from the social sensor unit 501 into a predetermined data format. For example, the petamining unit 502 performs a sorting process using an identifier as a key, or performs a sorting process for each area. The population calculation apparatus 600 according to the present embodiment is configured in the petamining unit 502, and calculates the population of the population calculation target (here, the population calculation target area and the time zone) from the number of the mobile devices 100. The population calculating apparatus 600 can be used to periodically calculate the population in a predetermined area in a predetermined time zone according to a periodic calculation instruction. The population calculation apparatus 600 can also be used to input a calculation instruction as appropriate from an external interface and calculate the population in a desired area in a desired time zone.

  The mobile demography unit 503 is a server device that performs aggregation / statistical analysis processing and spatial analysis processing on the data processed in the petamining unit 502.

  The visualization solution unit 504 is a server device that visualizes data aggregated in the mobile demography unit 503. For example, the visualization solution unit 504 can map the aggregated data on a map. Data processed by the visualization solution unit 504 is provided to companies, government offices or individuals, and is used for store development, road traffic surveys, disaster countermeasures, environmental countermeasures, and the like. Note that information statistically processed in this way is processed so that personal information is not specified.

  Here, the configuration of the population calculating apparatus 600 will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the population calculating apparatus 600. As shown in FIG. 2, the population calculation apparatus 600 includes an instruction receiving unit 601, a long cycle data totaling unit 602, a short cycle data totaling unit 603, a common data totaling unit 604, a coefficient calculating unit 605, a population calculating unit 606, and a result. An output unit 607 is provided.

  The instruction receiving unit 601 is a part that receives a population calculation instruction from a user, an area and a time zone of a population calculation target. The instruction receiving unit 601 can also receive a population calculation instruction, a population calculation target area, and a time zone that are periodically transmitted from an external device.

  The long cycle data totaling unit 602 counts the number of mobile devices that have registered the first location information within a predetermined area from the first location information accumulated in the petamining unit 502 in accordance with the population calculation instruction received by the instruction accepting unit 601. This is a part for summing up (hereinafter, the number of long-cycle users). Thus, the long cycle data totaling unit 602 constitutes a first totaling unit that totalizes the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on the first position information registered by the mobile device 100 in the first cycle. The first position information tabulated in this way is stored in the management table shown in FIG. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a management table included in the long cycle data totaling unit 602. As shown in FIG. 5, in the management table of the long cycle data totaling unit 602, the first position information is stored in association with identification information, a time stamp, and the like.

  The short cycle data totaling unit 603 has registered the second location information within the predetermined area from the second location information stored in the petamining unit 502 in accordance with the population calculation instruction received by the instruction accepting unit 601. This is a part for summing up (hereinafter, the number of short-cycle users). As described above, the short cycle data totaling unit 603 constitutes a second totaling unit that counts the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on the second position information registered by the mobile device 100 in the second cycle. The second position information tabulated in this way is stored in the management table shown in FIG. FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a management table included in the short cycle data totaling unit 603. As shown in FIG. 6, in the management table of the short cycle data totaling unit 603, the second position information is stored in association with identification information, a time stamp, and the like.

  The identification information in which the first position information and the second position information are associated with each other is, for example, obtained by performing a non-identification process on a user identifier (for example, a telephone number). A specific example of the non-discriminating process includes a process including conversion to an irreversible code by a one-way function. Specific examples of the one-way function include a keyed hash function based on a hash function recommended by domestic and foreign evaluation projects and evaluation institutions.

  The common data totaling unit 604 is a part that totals the number of mobile devices (hereinafter, the number of common users) that registered both the first location information and the second location information within a predetermined area. That is, the common data tabulation unit 604 tabulates the number of mobile devices whose identification information matches the mobile device 100 tabulated by the short cycle data tabulation unit 603 among the mobile devices 100 tabulated by the long cycle data tabulation unit 602. . As described above, the common data totaling unit 604 includes a common unit totaling unit that totals the number of mobile devices that match the mobile unit 100 calculated by the second totaling unit among the mobile units 100 totaled by the first totaling unit. It is composed.

  The coefficient calculation unit 605 is a part that calculates a time granularity refinement coefficient. The time granularity refinement coefficient is a coefficient for adjusting an increase / decrease in the number of mobile units in a period set shorter than the first period with respect to the number of mobile units aggregated by the first aggregation unit. Is calculated by

  Time granularity refinement coefficient = number of short-cycle users / number of common users (1)

  The population calculation unit 606 is a part that calculates the population based on the number of users calculated by the following equation (2) using the time granularity refinement coefficient calculated by the coefficient calculation unit 605.

  Number of users = number of long-cycle users x time granularity refinement coefficient (2)

  The coefficient calculation unit 605 may be a part that calculates the GPS usage rate, that is, the usage rate of the second location information with respect to the first location information, by the following equation (3).

  GPS utilization rate = number of common users / number of long-cycle users (3)

  In this case, the population calculation unit 606 calculates the number of users by the following formula (4).

  Number of users = number of short-cycle users / GPS usage rate (4)

  As described above, the coefficient calculation unit 605 and the population calculation unit 606 are configured so that the number of mobile devices aggregated by the first aggregation unit, the number of mobile units aggregated by the second aggregation unit, and the mobile units aggregated by the common unit aggregation unit. Population calculation means for calculating the population is configured by calculating the number of users in the predetermined area using the number and performing statistical processing such as multiplying the obtained number of users by the reciprocal of the share rate.

  The result output unit 607 is a part that outputs the population calculated by the population calculation unit 606.

  Next, processing performed by the population calculation apparatus 600 will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a population calculation procedure of the population calculation apparatus 600. First, the instruction receiving unit 601 detects a population calculation instruction, and starts a population calculation process. When the population calculation process is started, the instruction receiving unit 601 acquires the population calculation target area and time zone (step S600). In the present embodiment, the area for population calculation is the predetermined area. In addition, it is assumed that the population calculation target area is acquired by using the sector as a unit, and the boundary line of the population calculation target area coincides with the boundary line of the sector. In addition, you may acquire the area of population calculation object by making the cover area of the said base station into one unit.

  When the area and time zone for population calculation are acquired in step S600, the mobile device 100 that has registered the second position information in the area for population calculation by the short-cycle data totaling unit 603 in the time zone for population calculation is obtained. Extracted (step S601). That is, the mobile device 100 having the latitude and longitude in the population calculation target area is extracted in the population calculation target time zone. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is tabulated as the number of short-cycle users (step S602).

  Next, the long-cycle data totaling unit 602 extracts the mobile device 100 in which the first position information is registered in the population calculation target area during the population calculation target time zone (step S603). That is, the mobile device 100 in which the IDs of the sectors included in the population calculation target area are registered in the population calculation target time zone is extracted. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is tabulated as the number of long-period users (step S604).

  When the number of short cycle users and the number of long cycle users are tabulated, the common data count unit 604 tabulates the number of common users (step S605).

  Next, the coefficient calculation unit 605 calculates the time granularity refinement coefficient by the above equation (1) or the GPS utilization rate by the above equation (3) (step S606). Then, the population calculating unit 606 calculates the number of users by the above formula (2) or formula (4) (step S607).

  Here, a specific example of the population calculation process is shown. FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing entry / exit of a mobile device to / from an area for population calculation.

  As shown in FIG. 4, a total of ten mobile devices 100 of identification information a, b, c to j are in and out of the area for which the population is to be calculated. For example, the mobile device 100 with the identification information b is in the area where the population is to be calculated during the period in which the solid line is drawn, performs registration processing of the first location information at the point 61, and registration processing of the second location information at the point 62. It is carried out.

  In this situation, the mobile devices 100 that are counted as short-cycle users in the time zone T for which the population is to be calculated are five mobile devices with identification information b, c, f, g, and j (see FIG. 6). In addition, the mobile devices 100 counted as long-cycle users are two mobile devices with identification information a and b (see FIG. 5). Then, the mobile device 100 aggregated as a common user is one mobile device with identification information b that is also aggregated as a short cycle user among the mobile devices of identification information a and b that are aggregated as a long cycle user.

  As described above, since the number of short-cycle users is 5 and the number of common users is 1, the time granularity refinement coefficient is 5 from the equation (1). And since the number of long-cycle users is 2, the calculation result of the number of users is 10 from Equation (2).

  In addition, since the number of long-cycle users is 2 and the number of common users is 1, the GPS utilization rate is 0.5 from Equation (3). And since the number of short-cycle users is 5, the calculation result of the number of users is 10 from the formula (4).

  When the number of users is calculated in this way, the number of users is multiplied by an expansion factor, and the population is calculated. The expansion coefficient is a coefficient for converting the number of users into a population, and is obtained and stored in advance for each user attribute, for example. The expansion coefficient may be obtained according to a time zone or an area.

  In addition to storing in advance, the enlargement coefficient may be obtained as follows. For example, the reciprocal of the product of the “area ratio” and the “terminal penetration ratio” (that is, the ratio of the area area to the population) can be used as the expansion coefficient. Here, the “area ratio” means the ratio of the number of areas to the contracted number, and the “terminal penetration ratio” means the ratio of the number of contracted terminals to the population. For example, the ratio of the number of people in the population to the population is the same for each aggregation unit from the number-of-users pyramid data obtained by counting the number of mobile units for each certain aggregation unit and the statistical data (for example, Basic Resident Register) obtained in advance. Using the population pyramid data acquired in the above, it can be obtained for each tabulation unit. Examples of the counting unit include every prefecture of the address, every 5-year age group, every gender, every hour time zone, and the like. It should be noted that the enlargement factor is preferably obtained for each aggregation unit, but is not essential.

  Finally, the calculation result is output by the result output unit 607 (step S608). Thus, the population calculation process ends. The above population calculation processing may be performed for each attribute such as gender, age group, and address, and the population may be output for each attribute.

  As described above, according to the population calculation apparatus 600 according to the present invention, the number of long-period users is tabulated based on the first position information registered at the 54-minute period, and the second position information registered at the 5-minute period. Based on the above, the number of short-cycle users is totaled, and the number of common users is further totaled. Then, a time granularity refinement coefficient for adjusting the increase / decrease in the number of mobile units in a 5-minute period shorter than the 54-minute period is calculated with respect to the long-period user count, and the long-period user count is multiplied by the time granularity detailing coefficient. Thus, the number of users including the increase / decrease in 5 minutes is calculated, and the population is calculated based on the number of users.

  In place of the time granularity refinement coefficient, the GPS usage rate, that is, the usage rate of the second location information with respect to the first location information is calculated, and the GPS usage rate is divided from the short cycle user count, thereby reducing the short cycle user count. The number of users can also be calculated by converting when the GPS usage rate is 100%.

  As described above, according to the population calculating apparatus 600, the first position information registered at the 54-minute cycle and the second position information registered at the 5-minute cycle are complemented with each other. As a result, even if the first location information alone cannot capture a rapid increase or decrease in population, the number of mobile devices that register the second location information is small, and even if the second location information alone cannot calculate the population, The 1-position information and the second-position information are supplemented to each other, and it becomes possible to grasp the rapid increase / decrease in the population.

  Then, 2nd Embodiment of the population calculation apparatus which concerns on this invention is described. The second embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the population of an area where a sector is not a unit can be calculated. Since the functional configuration of the second embodiment is the same as the functional configuration of the first embodiment, only the population calculation processing procedure will be described for the second embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 7, first, similarly to the first embodiment, the instruction receiving unit 601 acquires the area / time zone for which the population is to be calculated (step S700). Further, a sector that partially overlaps the area for which the population is to be calculated is extracted as a related sector (step S701). In the present embodiment, an area including all the extracted related sectors is the predetermined area. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating related sectors. FIG. 8 shows a case where the area A1 subject to population calculation overlaps, for example, a part of the sectors B1 and B2 of the base station with a frequency of 2 GHz and a part of the sector C1 of the base station with a frequency of 800 MHz. ing. In this case, sectors B1 and B2 and sector C1 are extracted as related sectors, and area D including all of these sectors becomes the predetermined area.

  Next, the short period data totaling unit 603 extracts the mobile device 100 in which the second position information is registered in the related sector in the time zone subject to population calculation (step S702). That is, the mobile device 100 whose latitude and longitude are in the related sector is extracted in the population calculation target time zone. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is tabulated as the number of short-cycle users (step S703).

  Next, the long-cycle data totaling unit 602 extracts the mobile device 100 in which the first position information is registered in the related sector in the time zone subject to population calculation (step S704). That is, the mobile device 100 in which any ID of the related sector is registered is extracted in the population calculation target time zone. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is tabulated as the number of long-period users (step S705).

  Next, the common data totaling unit 604 counts the number of common users in the related sector (step S706).

  Next, the coefficient calculation unit 605 calculates the time granularity refinement coefficient for the entire related sector by the above equation (1), or calculates the GPS utilization rate for the entire related sector by the above equation (3) (step S1). S707).

  Next, the population calculation unit 606 calculates the number of users in the population calculation target area (step S708). Here, first, the number of users for each related sector is calculated by the above formula (2) or formula (4). At this time, the time granularity refinement coefficient or the GPS utilization rate in the entire related sector is commonly used as the time granularity refinement coefficient or the GPS utilization rate of each relevant sector. Further, the number of users in each related sector is prorated to the area for population calculation according to the ratio of the overlapping area of each related sector and the area for population calculation to the area of the related sector. That is, the number of users in each related sector is multiplied by the above ratio, and the multiplication result is assigned to the area for population calculation. Then, the number of users assigned to the area for population calculation from each related sector is added up, and the number of users in the area for population calculation is calculated.

For example, the number of users in area A1 in FIG. 8 is calculated as follows. In FIG. 8, it is assumed that the number of users in the related sector B1 is 1000, the number of users in the related sector C1 is 500, and the number of users in the related sector B2 is 2000. Further, the ratio that the area of the overlapping area between the related sector B1 and the area A1 becomes the area of the related sector B1 is 0.2, and the ratio that the area of the overlapping area between the related sector B2 and the area A1 becomes the area of the related sector B2 is 0. 2. Assume that the ratio of the overlapping area of the related sector C1 and the area A1 to the area of the related sector C1 is 0.5. in this case,
Number of users in area A1 = 1000 people × 0.2 + 500 people × 0.5 + 2000 people × 0.2 = 850 people.

  Next, in the same manner as in the first embodiment, the population is calculated by multiplying the expansion coefficient (step S709), and the population calculation result is output (step S710). Thus, the population calculation process of the second embodiment is completed.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to calculate the population of an area that does not have a sector as one unit, and to calculate the population of various areas such as municipalities.

  In the second embodiment, the time granularity refinement coefficient or the GPS usage rate is calculated for the entire related sector. That is, in the second embodiment, the time granularity refinement coefficient or the like is not calculated for each related sector. As a result, the time granularity refinement coefficient and the like can be calculated without identifying which sector the mobile station that has registered only the second position information belongs to. For mobile devices that have registered only the second location information, if it is possible to identify which sector it belongs to, the number of long-cycle users, the number of short-cycle users, and the number of common users are tabulated for each related sector, A time granularity refinement coefficient or the like may be calculated for each related sector. For example, if the mobile device that has registered the second location information has also registered the sector ID at the time of registration processing, the mobile device that has registered only the second location information also belongs to which sector. Can be identified.

  Subsequently, a third embodiment of the population calculating apparatus according to the present invention will be described. In the third embodiment, the process of calculating the population of an area that does not have a sector as a unit is performed by a procedure different from that of the second embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 9, first, as in the second embodiment, an area / time zone for population calculation is acquired (step S800), and related sectors are extracted (step S801). In the present embodiment, the area for population calculation is the predetermined area.

  Next, the short-cycle data totaling unit 603 extracts the mobile device 100 in which the second location information is registered in the population calculation target area in the population calculation target time zone (step S802). That is, the mobile device 100 having the latitude and longitude in the population calculation target area is extracted in the population calculation target time zone. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is counted as the number of short-cycle users (step S803).

  Next, the long-cycle data totaling unit 602 extracts the mobile device 100 in which the first position information is registered in the related sector in the time zone subject to population calculation (step S804). That is, the mobile device 100 in which any ID of the related sector is registered is extracted in the population calculation target time zone. Then, the number of extracted mobile devices 100 is tabulated as the number of long-period users for each related sector (step S805).

  Next, the number of long-period users in each related sector is apportioned into the population calculation target area according to the ratio of the overlapping area of each related sector and the population calculation target area to the area of the related sector. That is, the number of long-period users in each related sector is multiplied by the above ratio, and the multiplication result is assigned to the population calculation target area. Then, the number of long-period users assigned to the area for population calculation from each related sector is summed, and the number of long-period users for the area for population calculation is tabulated (step S806).

  Next, the common data totaling unit 604 counts the number of common users in the population calculation target area (step S807).

  Next, the coefficient calculation unit 605 calculates the time granularity refinement coefficient in the population calculation target area by the above formula (1), or the GPS usage rate in the population calculation target area by the above formula (3). Is calculated (step S808).

  Next, the population calculation unit 606 calculates the number of users in the population calculation target area by the above formula (2) or formula (4) (step S809). Next, as in the first embodiment, the population is calculated by multiplying the expansion coefficient (step S810), and the population calculation result is output (step S811). Thus, the population calculation process of the third embodiment is completed. This embodiment also has the same effect as the second embodiment.

  As mentioned above, although preferred embodiment which concerns on this invention has been described, this invention is not necessarily limited to embodiment mentioned above, A various change is possible in the range which does not change the summary. For example, in the above-described embodiment, the number of short cycle users is counted before the number of long cycle users, but the number of long cycle users may be calculated before the number of short cycle users.

  In the above-described embodiment, the population calculation device is provided in the petamining unit, but is not limited thereto. For example, the population calculation device may be provided in a mobile demography unit. Further, for example, only the result output unit of the population calculation device is provided in the mobile demography unit, and the population calculation device may be provided in a distributed manner in the petamining unit or the mobile demography unit.

  Further, in the above-described embodiment, the mobile device in which at least one of the first position information and the second position information is registered in the predetermined area in the time zone for population calculation is extracted, and the number of long-cycle users and the number of short-cycle users And the number of common users is tabulated, but is not limited thereto. For example, the number of long-cycle users, the number of short-cycle users, and the number of common users may be totaled by terminal number estimation described below. The concept and calculation method of terminal number estimation will be described below.

即ち、端末数推計は、各端末ａ_ｉの推計対象期間内のエリアＳの滞在時間ｔ_ｉの総和を推計対象期間の長さＴで除した結果を、端末数ｍとして推計しようとするものである。端末ａ_ｉの滞在時間ｔ_ｉの真の値は観測不能であるが、各端末ａ_ｉが第１位置情報や第２位置情報を登録するために発する信号は観測可能である。 Figure as in the model shown in 10, during time period T of the population calculation target, n-number of the terminal _{a 1, a 2, ...,} a n passes through the area S, the estimation period for each terminal a _i It is assumed that the stay time of the area S is t _i (0 <t _i ≦ T). The number of terminals m to be calculated by terminal number estimation is expressed by the following equation (5).

That is, the terminal number estimation is the result of dividing by the length T of the sum of the estimated period of residence time t _i of area S in the estimation period for each terminal a _i, intended to estimate the number of terminals m is there. Although the true value of the stay time t _i of the terminal a _i is not observable, the signal that the terminal a _i issues to register the first position information and the second position information is observable.

（ｘ_ｉは、端末ａ_ｉが推計対象期間内にエリアＳで発信した信号の総数）とすると、観測された信号ｑ_ｉｊ（ｊは１以上ｘ_ｉ以下の整数）からｍの値を推計することができる。 The signals transmitted by the terminal a _i in the area S in the time zone T subject to population calculation

Assuming that x _i is the total number of signals transmitted from the terminal a _i within the estimation target period in the area S, the value of m is estimated from the observed signal q _ij (j is an integer from 1 to x _i ). be able to.

A method for calculating the terminal number estimation will be described with reference to FIG. Let p _i be the density at which the signal q _ij is transmitted from the terminal a _i (ie, the number of signals per unit time). At this time, if the probability that the signal is transmitted is independent of the area, the expected value E (x _i ) of the total number x _i of the signals transmitted by the terminal a _i in the area S within the estimation target period is E (x Since x _i ) = t _i × p _i , the following equation (6) is established for the expected value E (t _i ) of the stay time t _i of the area S within the estimation target period of the terminal a _i .
E (t _i ) = x _i / p _i (6)
When the transmission time of the signal _{q ij} was _{u ij,} density _{p ij} of the signal _{q ij} is given by the following equation (7).
p _ij = 2 / (u _{i (j + 1)} −u _{i (j−1)} ) (7)
Here, (u _{i (j + 1)} −u _{i (j−1)} ) in the above equation (7) is set as a feature quantity w _ij for the signal q _ij . Then, the above formula (7) becomes as follows.
p _ij = 2 / w _ij (8)

で与えられるため、端末数ｍの推計値Ｅ（ｍ）は以下の式（１０）で計算することができる。

At this time, the density p _i is

Therefore, the estimated value E (m) of the number of terminals m can be calculated by the following equation (10).

  As shown in the example of FIG. 11, the mobile device ai transmits GPS location information qi1, qi2, qi3 within the total time period and the mobile device ai stays in the area S, and the GPS location information Assume that GPS position information qi0 is transmitted immediately before qi1 and GPS position information qi4 is transmitted immediately after GPS position information qi3. Assuming ui3 and ui4, the above idea is to estimate the stay time ti of the area S within the total time zone of the mobile device ai as the period from (midpoint of ui0 and ui1) to (midpoint of ui3 and ui4). It corresponds to doing.

When using such terminal number estimation, for example, the long cycle data totaling unit 602 calculates the first feature amount for each of the first position information registered in the predetermined area in the time zone T for which the population is to be calculated. . For example, the time when the mobile device registered the first position information, the time when the same mobile device registered the previous first value information (previous registration time), and the first position information after the same mobile device by one Extract the time when you registered (immediately after registration time),
The first feature amount is calculated as: first feature amount = immediate registration time−immediate registration time.
And
The number of long-period users is totaled as the number of long-period users = the sum of the first feature amounts / 2 / the first reference time. The length of the first reference time can be set as appropriate according to the population calculation conditions, but is preferably set to at least the first period or more.

Moreover, the short cycle data totaling unit 603 calculates the second feature amount for each of the second position information registered in the predetermined area in the time zone T for which the population is to be calculated. For example, the time when the mobile device registered the second position information, the time when the same mobile device registered the second value information immediately before (the previous registration time), and the second position information after the same mobile device one time Extract the time when you registered (immediately after registration time),
The second feature amount is calculated as second feature amount = immediate registration time−immediate registration time.
And
The number of short-cycle users is totaled as the number of short-cycle users = the sum of the second feature values / 2 / the second reference time. The length of the second reference time can be set as appropriate according to the population calculation conditions, but is preferably set to at least the second period or more.

In addition, the common data totaling unit 604 may register the second position registered in the predetermined area in the time zone T of the population calculation by the mobile device that has registered the first position information in the predetermined area in the time zone T of the population calculation target. A common feature amount is calculated for each piece of information. For example, the time when the mobile device registered the second position information, the time when the same mobile device registered the second value information immediately before (the previous registration time), and the second position information after the same mobile device one time Extract the time when you registered (immediately after registration time),
The common feature amount is calculated as common feature amount = immediate registration time−previous registration time.
And
The number of common users is totaled as the number of common users = the sum of the common feature amounts / 2 / the common reference time. The length of the common reference time can be set as appropriate according to the condition for calculating the population, but is preferably set to at least the second period or more. Thus, the accuracy of the number of common users can be increased by using the second position information having a signal transmission cycle shorter than that of the first position information for counting the number of common users.

  Such terminal number estimation can also be applied to the calculation of the enlargement factor. Specifically, using the terminal number estimation, the number of mobile devices can be aggregated for each aggregation unit, and the user number pyramid data can be obtained.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Communication system, 100 ... Mobile device, 600 ... Population calculation apparatus, 601 ... Instruction reception part, 602 ... Long cycle data totaling part, 603 ... Short cycle data totaling part, 604 ... Common data totaling part, 605 ... Coefficient calculation part 606 ... Population calculation unit, 607 ... Result output unit.

Claims (6)

First counting means for counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on the first position information registered by the mobile device in the first period;
A second counting means for counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on second position information registered by the mobile device in a second cycle shorter than the first cycle;
Of the mobile devices aggregated by the first aggregation means, common part aggregation means for aggregating the number of mobile devices that match the mobile devices aggregated by the second aggregation means;
Using the number of mobile units totaled by the second totaling unit and the number of mobile units totaled by the common unit totaling unit, the number of mobile units totaled by the first totaling unit is set shorter than the first period. Calculating a time granularity refinement coefficient for adjusting an increase / decrease in the number of mobile units in a given period, and multiplying the number of mobile units aggregated by the first aggregation means by the time granularity refinement coefficient to calculate a population A calculation means;
A population calculation device comprising:   First counting means for counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on the first position information registered by the mobile device in the first period;
  A second counting means for counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on second position information registered by the mobile device in a second cycle shorter than the first cycle;
  Of the mobile devices aggregated by the first aggregation means, common part aggregation means for aggregating the number of mobile devices that match the mobile devices aggregated by the second aggregation means;
  Using the number of mobile units totaled by the first totaling unit and the number of mobile units totaled by the common unit totaling unit, the usage rate of the second location information with respect to the first location information is calculated, and the second totalization is performed. A population calculating means for calculating the population by dividing the number of mobile devices tabulated by the means by the utilization rate;
  A population calculation device comprising: The population calculating means uses the number of mobile machines tabulated by the first tabulating means, the number of mobile machines tabulated by the second tabulating means, and the number of users tabulated by the common section tabulating means. calculates, using said intensity factor for a number of users into a population, the number of the user population calculation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein calculating the population by converting the population. For each of the first location information registered in the predetermined area during a predetermined period, the first counting means is the time when the mobile device registered the first location information, and the same mobile device has the previous first The first feature amount is calculated using two or more of the time at which one position information is registered and the time at which the same mobile device registers the next first position information, and the sum of the first feature amounts Based on the total number of mobile devices in the predetermined area,
For each of the second location information registered in the predetermined area during the predetermined period, the second counting means is the time when the mobile device registered the second location information, The second feature value is calculated using two or more of the time when the second position information is registered and the time when the same mobile device registers the second position information one after, and the second feature value is calculated. The total number of mobile devices in the predetermined area is counted based on the sum,
The common part counting means moves each of the second position information registered in the predetermined area during the predetermined period by the mobile device that has registered the first position information in the predetermined area during the predetermined period. The time at which the second mobile station registered the second location information, the time at which the same mobile device registered the second previous location information, and the time at which the same mobile device registered the second second location information. The common feature value is calculated using two or more of them, and based on the sum of the common feature values, out of the mobile devices counted by the first counting means, the mobile features counted by the second counting means are matched. The population calculating device according to any one of claims 1 to 3 , wherein the number of mobile devices to be counted is totaled. In the population calculation method performed by the population calculation device,
A first counting step of counting the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on the first position information registered by the mobile device in the first period;
A second counting step of counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on second position information registered by the mobile device in a second cycle shorter than the first cycle;
A common unit counting step of counting the number of mobile devices that match the mobile devices counted in the second counting step among the mobile devices counted in the first counting step;
Using the number of mobile units totaled in the second totaling step and the number of mobile units totaled in the common unit totaling step, from the first period to the number of mobile units totaled in the first totaling step The time granularity refinement coefficient for adjusting the increase / decrease in the number of mobile devices in the short period is calculated, and the population is calculated by multiplying the number of mobile devices aggregated in the first aggregation step by the time granularity refinement coefficient. A population calculating step for calculating
A population calculation method comprising:   In the population calculation method performed by the population calculation device,
  A first counting step of counting the number of mobile devices in a predetermined area based on the first position information registered by the mobile device in the first period;
  A second counting step of counting the number of mobile devices in the predetermined area based on second position information registered by the mobile device in a second cycle shorter than the first cycle;
  A common unit counting step of counting the number of mobile devices that match the mobile devices counted in the second counting step among the mobile devices counted in the first counting step;
  Using the number of mobile units totaled in the first totaling step and the number of mobile units totaled in the common unit totaling step, the usage rate of the second location information relative to the first location information is calculated, and the first A population calculating step of calculating a population by dividing the number of mobile devices tabulated in two counting steps by the utilization rate;
  A population calculation method comprising:

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