JP5723395B2 - Priority determining apparatus and method for earthquake disaster countermeasures - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an earthquake disaster countermeasure priority determining apparatus and method, and more particularly to an earthquake disaster countermeasure priority determining apparatus and method for evaluating the amount of countermeasures for continuation of communication services in the event of an earthquake disaster.

  The mission of the communication service is to be connected even during a disaster (continuing the communication service). For this reason, efforts are being made to determine disaster tolerance of communication networks and to increase disaster tolerance for vulnerable facilities.

  There are the following technologies for evaluating the impact of facilities (buildings, power supplies, transmission lines) necessary for continuation of communication services on disasters.

  There is a method for accurately predicting damage to cables accommodated in a pipeline. When the assumed earthquake information is input, this method is a joint release amount generation ratio table that predicts the displacement of the underground pipe according to the topography and geology where the underground cable is buried, the seismic intensity level of the place, and the liquefaction rank. And the cable damage area table that measures the presence or absence of cable damage according to the amount of cable displacement, and the cable damage ratio is calculated by comparing the joint detachment amount generation ratio table with the cable damage area table. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1).

  In addition, there is a method for calculating a risk for an earthquake with high accuracy by calculating a fragility curve representing the disaster resistance of a building with high accuracy. This method is an earthquake risk diagnosis system for obtaining operating loss caused by damage to the ground, the building built on the ground, and the facility composed of the housing equipment accommodated in the ground. The physical earthquake risk of the facility and the physical earthquake risk of the facility are obtained, and the physical earthquake risk of the facility (data center) at each local acceleration is calculated (for example, see Patent Document 2).

  In addition, there is a method of calculating the maximum predicted water depth (water level) at the diagnosis target building (point) by comparing the predicted water depth (water level) due to underline flooding, inland flooding, storm surge and tsunami at the diagnosis target building (point) ( For example, see Patent Document 3).

Japanese Patent No. 4819009 Japanese Patent No. 4170306 Japanese Patent No. 4190788

  The conventional technology can grasp whether each facility is vulnerable to a disaster. If there are no restrictions on cost or time, communication services can be continued in the event of a disaster by implementing measures for all vulnerable facilities.

  However, time and cost are limited, and it is necessary to take countermeasures as soon as possible for disasters for which it is difficult to predict regeneration, so efficiency by prioritization is required.

  The minimum unit of equipment configuration necessary for continuation of communication services is a route. Here, as shown in FIG. 1, a combination route of equipment on a communication path from a building as a certain starting point (hereinafter referred to as “starting point building”) to a building as an end point (hereinafter referred to as “endpoint building”) To do.

  Therefore, in a communication network where the routes necessary for continuation of communication services are made redundant, it is necessary to prioritize each route when more effective measures are taken to continue communication services in the event of a disaster. is there.

  Since buildings and power sources can affect human lives, measures are implemented for all facilities. On the other hand, a transmission line composed of a pipeline buried in the ground and a cable passing through the pipeline has a larger number of facilities than a building or a power source, and time and cost restrictions are particularly severe. Therefore, it is necessary to prioritize each route, particularly in the transmission line.

  In addition, it is known that the transmission line is greatly affected by shaking and liquefaction caused by an earthquake disaster (for example, Non-Patent Document 1: Yamazaki et al., “Development of functionality evaluation technology for communication facilities during earthquakes,” NTT technology. Journal, 2009.8.).

The present invention has been made in view of the above, in supposition earthquakes, it is possible to evaluate the measures of the communication service continuation for each route, which can prioritize should measures route Earthquake It is an object to provide an apparatus and method for determining priorities for disaster countermeasures.

In order to solve the above problems, the present invention (Claim 1) is a priority determination apparatus for earthquake disaster countermeasures that evaluates the countermeasure amount for continuation of communication services at the time of an earthquake disaster,
Transmission path information storage means for storing information relating the individual pipelines and cables constituting the transmission path with the routes necessary for continuation of the communication service;
A hazard information storage means for managing hazard information;
A damage rate storage means for storing the damage rate of the pipe and the damage rate of the cable in a state where the pipe is damaged;
Based on the input pipe line type, cable type, and the hazard information acquired from the hazard information storage means, the corresponding damage rate is acquired from the damage rate storage means, and the damage rate of the pipe line and the pipe Multiply the cable damage rate when the road is damaged, calculate the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasures, and the cable damage rate at the time of the disaster after the countermeasures when the pipes are replaced Is calculated by the same calculation as the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster, the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is 0, or the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is A damage rate evaluation means that requires a measure other than a cable damage rate greater than 0 and greater than the damage rate of the cable at the time of occurrence of the disaster after the measure;
Countermeasure amount calculation means to calculate for each route the total amount of pipes that need countermeasures in the assumed earthquake disaster as the countermeasure amount;
There is provided an apparatus for determining priorities for earthquake disaster countermeasures, including priority ordering means for prioritizing routes with a small amount of countermeasures .

According to the present invention as described above, in supposition earthquakes, it is possible to evaluate the measures of ongoing communication service for each route, it is possible to prioritize to be measures route.

It is an image of a route for continuing communication services. It is a block diagram of the priority determination system of the earthquake disaster countermeasure in one embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart of operation | movement of the priority determination system in one embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the route extraction process in one embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of transmission-line information acquisition in one embodiment of this invention. It is an example of hazard information acquisition in one embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of the damage rate calculation of the cable at the time of the earthquake disaster occurrence before the countermeasure of the damage rate calculation part in one embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the disaster rate management DB in one embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of the necessity judgment of the countermeasure in one embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the damage rate calculation of the cable at the time of the earthquake disaster occurrence after the countermeasure in one embodiment of this invention. It is an example of risk evaluation in one embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of calculation of the countermeasure amount in one embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of route prioritization in one embodiment of the present invention.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 2 shows the configuration of a priority determination system for earthquake disaster countermeasures according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  The system shown in the figure includes an input unit 10, a display unit 20, a route information management DB 30, a transmission path information management DB 40, a hazard information management DB 50, a disaster rate management DB 60, and a priority order determination device 100.

  The route information management DB 30 stores information on all routes having the X building as the start point building and the Y building as the end point building for each communication service.

  The transmission line management information DB 40 stores individual pipe type, cable type, and position information that constitute the transmission line.

  The hazard information management DB 50 manages hazard information (presence / absence of liquefaction, seismic intensity level).

  The disaster rate management DB 60 stores the disaster rate corresponding to the hazard information of the pipeline type and the cable type.

  The priority order determining device 100 includes an information acquisition unit 105, a storage unit 110, a disaster rate calculation unit 120, a risk level calculation unit 130, a countermeasure amount calculation unit 140, a priority order determination unit 150, and an output unit 160.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart of the operation of the priority determination system for earthquake disaster countermeasures in one embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the processing of the priority determining apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIG.

  Step 101) The input unit 10 provides the priority determining apparatus 100 with a communication service type (voice call, Internet, video system service, etc.), a start point building, an end point building, an assumed earthquake disaster, a pipe type after replacement, Enter the criteria for determining the route to be taken (lowest risk after countermeasure, highest risk before countermeasure, low amount of countermeasure, etc.). The input information is stored in the storage unit 110 via the information acquisition unit 105.

  A recent communication network takes a form of providing a plurality of communication services in one communication network. In such a communication network, the route necessary for continuing the communication service differs depending on the type of the communication service. That is, the route necessary for continuing the communication service cannot be determined only by the start point building and the end point building. Therefore, in this embodiment, “communication service type” is set as one of the input information. Do not include in the input information if it is possible to determine the route required for continuation of the communication service only in the communication network in the form of providing one communication service with one communication network, or only in the start point building and end point building May be.

  A specific example of data input by the input unit 10 is shown below.

・ Type of communication service: Voice call service;
・ Starting building: X building;
・ Termination building: Y building;
・ Estimated earthquake disaster: Earthquake 1;
・ Pipe type after replacement: Pipe type A;
・ Criteria for determining the route to be taken: Prioritize the route with the lowest risk after the measure;
Step 102) Based on the input information, the information acquisition unit 105 manages a route information management DB 30 that manages the route information necessary for continuing the voice call service from the X building (starting building) to the Y building (ending building). Are all acquired from and stored in the storage unit 110. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 4, there is shown a case where there are two routes from the X building to the Y building in the voice call service. The acquired information is stored in the storage unit 110.

  Step 103) The information acquisition unit 105 acquires information as shown in FIG. 5 from the transmission path information management DB 40 based on the route information acquired in Step 102. The transmission path information (pipe type, cable type, position information) on the route is acquired from the transmission path information management DB 40. In the example of FIG. 5, a plane rectangular coordinate system is used for position information. Therefore, the x coordinate / y coordinate of the plane rectangular coordinate and the coordinate system number of the plane rectangular coordinate are acquired. The acquired information is stored in the storage unit 110.

  Step 104) The information acquisition unit 105 installs the pipeline as shown in FIG. 6 from the hazard information storage unit 50 based on the assumed earthquake disaster input in Step 101 and the position information of the transmission path acquired in Step 103. Get location hazard information. As described above, the hazards targeted by the present invention are only earthquake shaking and liquefaction. Therefore, in this embodiment, the seismic intensity level and the presence or absence of liquefaction are acquired as hazard information and stored in the storage unit 110.

  Step 105) If the damage rate before the countermeasure has already been calculated, the process proceeds to step 107, and if not yet calculated, the process proceeds to step 106.

  Step 106) The damage rate calculation unit 120 calculates the cable damage rate at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure, and stores the result in the storage unit 110 as shown in FIG. Specifically, the disaster rate corresponding to the hazard information of the pipeline type and the cable type is acquired from the disaster rate management DB 60 based on the pipeline type and cable type acquired in Step 103 and the hazard information acquired in Step 104. Then, the damage rate of the cable at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is calculated using the damage rate of the pipeline and the damage rate of the cable when the pipeline is damaged. The cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake is calculated by multiplying the damage rate of the pipeline by the damage rate of the cable when the pipeline is damaged.

  It is assumed that the damage rate of the pipeline and the damage rate of the cable when the pipeline is damaged are calculated in advance and held in the damage rate management DB 60. There are various methods for calculating the damage rate of the pipe and the damage rate of the cable in a state where the pipe is damaged. For example, there is a method disclosed in Patent Document 1 or a method using damage data in a past earthquake disaster. FIG. 8 shows an example of the disaster rate management DB. The figure (a) shows the example of the damage rate table of a pipe line, and the figure (b) shows the example of the damage rate table of the cable at the time of a pipe line damage.

  Step 107) Referring to the storage unit 110, it is determined whether it has been calculated based on whether or not the disaster rate after the countermeasure is stored. If it has been calculated, the process proceeds to Step 110. If not, the process proceeds to Step 109. Transition.

  Step 108) The damage rate calculation unit 120 calculates the damage rate of the cable at the time of the occurrence of the disaster after the countermeasure when the countermeasure (in this embodiment, the pipe is replaced with the pipe type A) is performed. Similar to 106, it is calculated and stored in the storage unit 110. An example of the cable damage rate calculation at the time of earthquake occurrence after the countermeasure is shown in FIG.

  Step 109) The damage rate calculation unit 120 indicates that “the cable damage rate at the time of occurrence of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure acquired at Step 106 is 0” or “the cable damage at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure acquired at Step 106”. The damage ratio of the cable is greater than zero and the damage ratio of the cable at the time of the earthquake disaster after the countermeasure acquired at Step 108 is equal to or greater than the damage ratio of the cable at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure acquired at Step 106 " The pipes other than those are determined as pipes requiring countermeasures, and are determined as shown in FIG.

  Step 110) The risk level calculation unit 130 uses the expected value obtained by integrating the cable damage rate at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake disaster for each route as the risk level, and the cable damage rate at the time of the disaster occurrence before the countermeasure acquired in Step 106. Is used to calculate the route risk before the countermeasure. Further, using the damage rate of the cable at the time of occurrence of the disaster after the countermeasure acquired in step 108, the risk of the route after the countermeasure is calculated as shown in FIG. The calculated risk is stored in the storage unit 110.

  Step 111) The countermeasure amount calculation unit 140 calculates, for each route, the total number of pipes that need countermeasures in the assumed earthquake disaster determined in Step 109 as a countermeasure amount, and stores it in the storage unit 110. For example, in the example of FIG. 10, since it is 8 in the case of route 1 and 4 in the case of route 2, it is calculated as shown in FIG.

  Step 112) The priority order determination unit 150 refers to the risk stored in the storage unit 110 based on the determination criteria of the route to be taken in step 101, and sets the priority order as shown in FIG. Decide every time. In the example of the present embodiment, priority is given to the route having a lower risk after the countermeasure than the risk of the route before the countermeasure, so the route 2 having the lower risk after the countermeasure has priority over the route 1. The ranking is high. In addition, the priority determination unit 150 determines that the difference between the pre-measurement damage rate and the post-measurement damage rate (measure effect) is large among the cables constituting the route for the high priority route determined above. It is also possible to prioritize the priority order. In addition to the above, there are various criteria for determining a route to be taken, such as a method of giving priority to a route with a small amount of measures and a route with a high risk level before taking measures. The determined priority order and route name are stored in the storage unit 110.

  The output unit 160 reads the priority order from the storage unit 110 and outputs it to the display unit 20.

  The operations of the information acquisition unit 105, the damage rate calculation unit 120, the risk level calculation unit 130, the countermeasure amount calculation unit 140, the priority level determination unit 150, and the output unit 160 of the priority order determination device 100 illustrated in FIG. It can be installed and executed on a computer used as a priority order determination device, or distributed via a network.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications and applications are possible within the scope of the claims.

10 Input unit 20 Display unit 30 Route information management DB
40 Transmission path information management DB
50 Hazard information management DB
60 Damage Rate Management DB
100 Priority Determination Device 105 Information Acquisition Unit 110 Storage Unit 120 Damage Rate Calculation Unit 130 Risk Calculation Unit 140 Countermeasure Calculation Unit 150 Priority Determination Unit 160 Output Unit

Claims (2)

A priority determination device for earthquake disaster countermeasures that evaluates the amount of countermeasures for continuation of communication services in the event of an earthquake disaster,
Transmission path information storage means for storing information relating the individual pipelines and cables constituting the transmission path with the routes necessary for continuation of the communication service;
A hazard information storage means for managing hazard information;
A damage rate storage means for storing the damage rate of the pipe and the damage rate of the cable in a state where the pipe is damaged;
Based on the input pipe line type, cable type, and the hazard information acquired from the hazard information storage means, the corresponding damage rate is acquired from the damage rate storage means, and the damage rate of the pipe line and the pipe Multiply the cable damage rate when the road is damaged, calculate the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasures, and the cable damage rate at the time of the disaster after the countermeasures when the pipes are replaced Is calculated by the same calculation as the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster, the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is 0, or the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is A damage rate evaluation means that requires a measure other than a cable damage rate greater than 0 and greater than the damage rate of the cable at the time of occurrence of the disaster after the measure;
Countermeasure amount calculation means to calculate for each route the total amount of pipes that need countermeasures in the assumed earthquake disaster as the countermeasure amount;
Prioritizing means for prioritizing routes with a small amount of countermeasures;
An apparatus for determining priorities for earthquake disaster countermeasures. A priority determination method for earthquake disaster countermeasures for evaluating the amount of countermeasures for continuation of communication services in the event of an earthquake disaster,
Transmission path information storage means for storing information relating individual conduits and cables constituting the transmission path to routes necessary for continuation of communication services;
A hazard information storage means for managing hazard information;
A damage rate storage means for storing the damage rate of the pipe and the damage rate of the cable in a state where the pipe is damaged;
In an apparatus having a disaster rate evaluation means, countermeasure amount calculation means, and prioritization means ,
The damage rate evaluation means acquires a corresponding damage rate from the damage rate storage means based on the input pipeline type, cable type, and the hazard information acquired from the hazard information storage means, and the pipe Multiply the damage ratio of the road by the damage ratio of the cable in the state where the pipe is damaged, calculate the damage ratio of the cable at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure, and the disaster after the countermeasure when the pipe is replaced The cable damage rate at the time of occurrence is calculated by the same calculation as the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster, the cable damage rate at the time of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure is 0, or the occurrence of the earthquake disaster before the countermeasure A damage rate evaluation step in which pipes needing countermeasures other than those in which the damage ratio of cables at the time is greater than 0 and greater than the damage ratio of cables at the time of disaster after the countermeasures ;
The measure amount calculating means calculates a measure amount calculation step for each route as a measure amount in the sum total of the number of pipes requiring measures in an assumed earthquake disaster,
A prioritizing step in which the prioritizing means prioritizes the route with a small countermeasure amount;
A priority determination method for earthquake disaster countermeasures characterized by

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