JP5676421B2 - Real estate future price prediction apparatus and future price prediction method, and loan contract management apparatus and loan contract management method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a real estate future price prediction device and a future price prediction method, and a loan contract management apparatus and a loan contract management method for a loan whose real estate is a responsible property, particularly suitable for a housing complex such as an apartment. .

  Loans targeting real estate acquisition funds such as mortgages are often long-term loans of 30 years or more, considering the useful life of the target assets and the amount that the debtor can repay on a monthly basis. However, due to changes in the family structure, etc., it is necessary to move to another location, and it is likely that the real estate will be sold and the loan will be repaid before the loan is due. One possible solution is to apply a principal deferred loan scheme.

  Applying a partially deferred principal to real estate results in a loan scheme as shown in FIG. Here, the repayment period (financing period) is n years, and the property price C assumed after n years is set as the principal balance B at the time of repayment. During the n years after the loan is received, the obligor will continue to execute the scheduled repayment, which is an equal repayment of principal and interest, so that the principal portion of the amount (A-B) obtained by subtracting the principal balance B from the loan amount A can be repaid Will do.

  The problem that arises at this time is how to predict the property price C after n years with high accuracy. If the actual property price falls below the initial forecast price, even if the property is disposed of, there will be a shortage of redemption of the principal balance B. From the standpoint of creditors, the property price C should be kept as low as possible. You should want to estimate on. However, the lower the property price C is, the lower the principal balance B after n years, and the lower the principal balance that the debtor must repay in n years. Become. As a result, if the monthly principal and interest payment exceeds the rent when a similar property is rented, the obligor will lose the willingness to purchase the property through financing.

  As described above, in order to realize a partial deferred loan for real estate, the future price of the property is predicted as precisely as possible, and the principal balance when the repayment deadline arrives is set appropriately A mechanism is required.

  Generally, when evaluating a real estate price, there are many cases where the initial acquisition price or a nearby sales example is used as a standard, but these evaluation methods have a problem that they are susceptible to fluctuations in the real estate market price. Therefore, as a theoretically superior method that is relatively insensitive to market fluctuations, pay attention to the profitability of real estate, and calculate the current value from the present value of future cash flows obtained by holding the real estate. The DCF (Discount Cash Flow) method is sometimes used (see, for example, Patent Documents 1 to 3).

JP 2004070535 A JP 2005-251031 A JP 2001-297145 A

  However, the DCF method is only a method for evaluating the “current value” of an asset. In the case of the loan scheme as shown in FIG. 1, an evaluation method used to determine whether the property price at the time of purchase is appropriate and used to predict the future property price C. is not. There is a need for a mechanism that appropriately predicts future real estate prices while having theoretical support like the DCF method.

  The present invention has been made to cope with such a problem, and is suitable for accurately predicting the future price of the real estate, the future price prediction apparatus and the future price prediction method of the real estate, and the predicted A loan contract management apparatus and a loan contract management method for a loan with real estate as a responsible property, which are particularly suitable for setting loan conditions for a partially deferred principal based on the future price of the real estate It is for the purpose.

  In the present invention, in order to predict the future price of the real estate, an input of a base year as a reference for predicting the future price is accepted, and each year from the base year or the year following the base year to the year when the useful life of the real estate comes Applying a prescribed discount rate to the cash flow of the current year and adding the discounted cash flow discounted to the present value in the base year, and then forecasting a detailed future price based on the revenues obtained from the real estate This makes it possible to set the loan conditions for a partially deferred loan based on this future price.

  An invention related to a future price prediction device that solves the problem relating to the present application is a device that predicts a future price of real estate, and inputs information specifying a real estate for which a future price is predicted and a reference year that is a reference for predicting the future price. Input and receiving means for receiving, income and expenditure information reading means for reading out income and expenditure information necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage area of the storage device, and from the base year or the year following the base year The cash flow calculation means for calculating the cash flow of each year until the useful life of the real estate comes from the balance information, and applying the predetermined discount rate to the cash flow of each year Using the sum of discounted cash flows discounted to the present value in the year, the future expected price of the property in the base year A future price calculating means for calculating a future price, and a future price output means for executing a process of outputting the future price to an output device or writing it into a predetermined storage area of a storage device. It is a prediction device.

  Further, the future price prediction device according to the present invention outputs the output without performing the calculation by the future price calculation means when the reference year received by the input reception means is a year in which the useful life of the real estate has elapsed. An error message output means for outputting an error message to the apparatus may be provided.

  With this configuration, it is not possible to expect revenue from the target property after the point of evaluation, that is, it is not appropriate to expect revenue after the end of the useful life. Cases that are judged to be unsuitable can be excluded from future price forecasts.

  Further, the future price predicting apparatus according to the present invention is such that the property for which the future price is predicted is a property owned by the building, and the information specifying the property received by the input receiving means is the building subject to the property ownership. Information for specifying the property and the information for identifying the property owned by the division, and the information for identifying the real estate accepted by the input acceptance means, and the building information storage means for storing information relating to the building to be classified and owned The building information storage means is searched using the information for specifying the included building to be classified as a key, and the building information specifying means for specifying the information related to the building is provided. The balance information reading means includes the building information specifying means. The balance information corresponding to the information specified by the means may be read from a predetermined storage device.

  When the present invention is applied to a separately owned property such as a condominium, the information common to the building among the information necessary for calculating the future cash flow (distance from the station, building By registering in advance with respect to the structure, etc., it becomes unnecessary to request the input of such information for each section possession.

  The present invention can also be specified as a future price prediction method executed by the future price prediction apparatus according to the present invention.

  That is, the prediction method of the future price according to the present invention is a prediction method of the future price of the real estate, and the computer inputs information for specifying the real estate for which the future price is predicted and a reference year that is a reference for predicting the future price. An input receiving step for receiving, a balance information reading step for reading out balance information necessary for the computer to calculate future revenue and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage area of the storage device, and the computer A cash flow calculation step of calculating cash flow for each year from the base year or the year following the base year to the year when the useful life of the real estate arrives, from the balance information, and the computer Discount cash flow discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the flow A future price calculation step of calculating a future price, which is a future forecast price of the real estate in the base year, using the value obtained by summing the values, and the computer outputs the future price to an output device or a predetermined storage device A future price output step of executing a process of writing to the storage area of the future price.

  The future price prediction method according to the present invention can also be specified as a future price prediction method corresponding to each configuration of the future price prediction apparatus according to the present invention.

  The invention relating to a loan contract management apparatus for solving the problems relating to the present application is an apparatus for calculating and managing the conditions of a loan contract for a loan whose real estate is the responsibility, and information on the loan conditions including the loan amount and future prices. Information for identifying the real estate to be evaluated and input acceptance means for accepting the input of a base year that is a repayment date of the loan and is a standard for predicting the future price, and a balance necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate A balance information reading means for reading information from a predetermined storage device, and a cash flow for calculating a cash flow for each year from the base year or the year following the base year to a year when the useful life of the real estate comes from the balance information A discount calculator that applies a predetermined discount rate to the cash flow for each year and discounts the present value in the base year. A future price calculation means for calculating a future price, which is a future forecast price in the base year of the real estate, using a value obtained by adding up the flow, and a repayment of the valuation value based on the future price at the repayment date of the loan A repayment condition calculation means for calculating a loan repayment condition based on information relating to the loan condition accepted by the input acceptance means, and information relating to the loan condition including the repayment condition. And a repayment condition output means for executing a process of outputting or writing to a predetermined storage area of the storage device.

  In the loan contract management apparatus according to the present invention, the evaluation amount based on the future price of the real estate calculated by the same configuration as the future price prediction apparatus according to the present invention is set to the principal balance to be repayed in a lump sum at the loan repayment deadline. Thus, it is possible to set the loan conditions of the loan contract for the so-called principal deferred loan.

  In addition, the loan contract management device according to the present invention, when the future price calculated by the future price calculation means exceeds the loan amount received by the input reception means, the repayment condition calculation means, It is also possible to calculate a repayment condition for a loan that repays the book until the repayment deadline.

  As in the present invention, when the future price is predicted based on the future cash flow, the case where the loan amount is relatively small for the acquired real estate (case where the amount of the down payment is relatively large), In some cases, such as when real estate is acquired at a discount to profitability, the predicted future price may exceed the current loan amount. In such a case, the principal balance at the time of the repayment deadline will be larger than the original, but by configuring in this way, the repayment conditions are set appropriately by deferring the principal part in such cases as well. It becomes possible.

  Furthermore, the loan contract management apparatus according to the present invention outputs the output without performing the calculation by the future price calculation unit when the reference year received by the input reception unit is a year in which the useful life of the real estate has elapsed. An error message output means for outputting an error message to the apparatus may be provided.

  With this configuration, it is not possible to expect revenue from the target property after the point of evaluation, that is, it is not appropriate to expect revenue after the end of the useful life. Cases that are judged to be unsuitable can be excluded from forecasting future prices and the setting of financing conditions can be stopped.

  Furthermore, in the loan contract management apparatus according to the present invention, the property whose future price is predicted is a property owned by a section of a building, and the information for identifying the property received by the input receiving means is a building subject to the section ownership. Information for specifying the property and the information for identifying the property owned by the division, and the information for identifying the real estate accepted by the input acceptance means, and the building information storage means for storing information relating to the building to be classified and owned The building information storage means is searched using the information for specifying the included building to be classified as a key, and the building information specifying means for specifying the information related to the building is provided. The balance information reading means includes the building information specifying means. The balance information corresponding to the information specified by the means may be read from a predetermined storage device.

  When the present invention is applied to a separately owned property such as a condominium, the information common to the building among the information necessary for calculating the future cash flow (distance from the station, building By registering in advance about the structure, etc., it becomes unnecessary to ask for the input of these information necessary for the prediction of the future price for each section possession.

  The present invention can also be specified as a loan contract management method executed by the loan contract management apparatus according to the present invention.

  That is, the method for managing a loan contract according to the present invention is a method for managing a loan contract for calculating and managing a loan contract condition for a loan whose real estate is a responsible property, and the computer relates to the loan condition including the loan amount. An input receiving step for receiving information, information for identifying a real estate for which a future price is predicted, and a base year that is a loan repayment deadline and is a reference for predicting a future price; and Balance information reading step for reading balance information necessary for calculating expenditure from a predetermined storage area of the storage device, and the computer from the base year or the year following the base year to the year when the useful life of the real estate comes A cash flow calculation step of calculating cash flow of each year from the balance information, and the computer, The estimated future price of the real estate in the base year using the sum of the discounted cash flows discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the cash flows in each year A future price calculation step for calculating a future price, and the computer sets an evaluation amount based on the future price as a principal balance to be paid in a lump sum at a loan repayment deadline, and information on loan conditions received in the input reception step A repayment condition calculating step for calculating a loan repayment condition based on the information, and the computer executes processing for outputting information on the loan condition including the repayment condition to an output device or writing to a predetermined storage area of a storage device And a repayment condition output step. A loan contract management method comprising:

  The future price prediction method according to the present invention can also be specified as a future price prediction method corresponding to each configuration of the future price prediction apparatus according to the present invention.

  According to the present invention, when it is necessary to predict the future price of real estate, it becomes possible to perform the prediction by an elaborate method based on profitability. By using the future price calculated by this method, it becomes possible to realize a loan scheme for a partly-maintained loan for real estate, in particular, a property that is partly owned by a building. It is expected to contribute to the promotion of housing acquisition.

It is a figure which shows the view of the repayment conditions of the loan performed using this invention. It is a figure which shows the concept of the NPV calculation by DCF method. It is a figure which shows the view of NFV calculation which applied the DCF method in this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the loan contract management apparatus concerning this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the real estate information database with which a loan contract management apparatus is equipped in this invention. It is a figure which shows the 1st example of the rent model table with which a loan contract management apparatus is provided in this invention. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of the rent model table with which a loan contract management apparatus is provided in this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the cost table with which a loan contract management apparatus is provided in this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the lifetime table with which a loan contract management apparatus is provided in this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the discount rate table with which a loan contract management apparatus is provided in this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the processing flow of the prediction method of the future price concerning this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the processing flow of the management method of the loan contract concerning this invention.

  Embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. In the following description, an example of an embodiment of the present invention is shown. For example, information used for predicting future cash flows is not limited to these examples. In addition, the use of the future price prediction device according to the present invention is not limited to the calculation of the principal balance in a partially deferred principal loan. For example, in a reverse mortgage or a debt successor loan, It can also be used to evaluate the property.

  FIG. 1 shows an outline of the concept of repayment conditions for a partially deferred principal for real estate, which is executed using the present invention. First, the remaining amount of the down payment for the property price at the time of purchase is the original principal of the loan received by the debtor, the loan amount A. The loan period is set to a period that is shorter than the useful life of the property, that is, the property has a certain value even after the end of the loan period and is expected to be disposable. .

  Then, the property price C assumed after n years is assumed to be the principal balance B at the time of repayment, and the amount obtained by subtracting the principal balance B from the loan amount A during the n years after the debtor received the loan (A− Repayment conditions for principal and interest are set so that the principal part of B) can be repaid. Repayment method of principal and interest is not particularly limited, but in order to avoid fluctuations in each payment amount and to facilitate comparison with the rent burden in the case of rental, It is preferable to do.

  In this financing scheme, when the loan repayment date comes, the debtor will remain with the principal balance B, but the actual price of the subject real estate at that time is higher than the initial forecast. If the price has risen, the debtor can enjoy the benefit of the price increase of the real estate by repaying the principal balance B with the funds from the sale of the real estate. On the other hand, if the prevailing price is lower than the initial forecast, the property is limited to the target property even if the funds that sold the property do not reach the principal balance B. It doesn't mean you can't. Alternatively, by continuing to repay the principal balance B as a new loan, it is possible to avoid the occurrence of a loss due to a decline in real estate prices, so that the debtor's options are expanded.

  Here, as described above in relation to the background art, in order to meet the expectations of both the creditor and the debtor, it is required to predict the property price C as precisely as possible. However, in order to predict the price of real estate in the future, it is difficult to apply valuation techniques using similar buying and selling cases that are generally used for valuation of real estate, considering the market fluctuation risk of the real estate market. is there. Therefore, in the present invention, the concept of the DCF method that is sometimes used for evaluating the present value of real estate is applied, and the cash flow generated after the time (n years later) to be evaluated (n) The future price is predicted based on the sum of the present value (hereinafter referred to as “NFV (Net Future Value)”).

  FIG. 2 shows the basic concept of the NPV (net present value) calculation performed when the property price is evaluated by the DCF method. From the current point in time, the cash flow obtained from the target asset in each year after the following year, that is, the expenditure generated from the income generated from the target property (for example, the rent when the apartment is rented) To calculate the total amount of present value by discounting the cash flow for each year at a predetermined discount rate. By assessing the current real estate price.

  In the above explanation, calculation is performed for cash flows from the following year at the time of evaluation. However, whether the value of cash flows in the remaining period of the year to which the evaluation belongs should be taken into account (for example, , When the evaluation is in January and the cash flow generated in the year to which the evaluation belongs should be included in the future cash flows), only the fractional months of the year to which the evaluation belongs May be included in the calculation target of cash flow. In addition, the sum of the present value of cash flows for each year may be used as the appraisal value of the real estate as it is, or the price calculated based on the sum of the present value of cash flows, such as multiplying by a certain factor, is used as the appraisal value. You can also

The sum of the present value of cash flows calculated in this way is NPV. The formula for calculating NPV is y years for the elapsed year, Y years for the useful life, CFy for the cash flows generated in each year, and the discount rate. When r is r, it can be expressed as follows.

  On the other hand, FIG. 3 shows the basic concept of NFV (net future value) calculation for evaluating the future price of the target property by applying the DCF method in the present invention. Shift the base point to a future point in time (n years later, 10 years in this example), and target assets in each year after the base year, that is, the year following the base year (11 years in this example) The cash flow obtained from the base year, ie, the amount of cash generated by subtracting the expenditure (for example, the cost of maintaining the apartment) from the revenue generated from the subject real estate (for example, the rent when the apartment is rented) Calculated from the following year (in this example, after 11 years) to the year when the useful life comes (in this example, after 50 years), and the cash flow of each year is discounted at the specified discount rate (after n years, In this example, the future price of the real estate is evaluated by obtaining the sum of the present values in 10 years).

  In the above explanation, the calculation is made for cash flows after the base year, but the base year (n years later, 10 years in this example), or the fractional months of the base year It may be included in the calculation target of cash flow. Whether to include the cash flow for the base year should the cash flow for the base year be included in the value of the property in the base year, taking into account the month when the loan is executed, the month when the loan is due, etc. It may be determined individually depending on the circumstances, and is not limited to either one. In addition, the sum of the present value of future cash flows in the base year may be evaluated as the future price of the real estate as it is, or the sum of the present value of future cash flows in the base year, such as multiplying by a certain factor. The price calculated based on this can also be used as the future price.

The sum of the present value of cash flows after n years calculated in this way is NFV. The calculation formula for NFV is n years for the base time, y years for the elapsed years, Y years for the useful life, If the cash flow generated in the year is CFy and the discount rate is r, it can be expressed as follows.

  In the above calculation of NPV and NFV, it is assumed that the return price is 0 yen. However, in the present invention, for example, the land share price is restored in consideration of the value of the land share at the end of the useful life. NFV may be calculated by setting the price. However, since it is not easy to predict the price of the land in the future, here we will make a firm evaluation with a return price of 0 yen.

  By applying such an arithmetic expression, it becomes possible to predict the price of the real estate at a certain future time point based on the expected profit from the real estate. Figure 1 shows an example of the configuration of a computer system for predicting the future price of real estate based on the above calculation method and setting the loan conditions for the principal partially deferred loan based on the predicted future price. 4.

  The loan contract management apparatus 10 of FIG. 4 corresponds to the loan contract management apparatus according to the present invention, but the future price prediction apparatus according to the present invention also constitutes a part thereof.

  The loan contract management apparatus 10 is a computer having an auxiliary storage device such as a CPU, a main memory, and an HDD, reads a program stored in the auxiliary storage device such as an HDD into the main memory and executes arithmetic processing by the CPU. By doing so, a predetermined function is realized. Note that such processing is not required to be realized by one computer, but can be linked with two or more computers or external storage devices, such as reading a program from an auxiliary storage device of another computer in one computer. May be realized.

  A keyboard, a touch display, a mouse, or the like is used as the input device 20, and a display, a printer, or the like is used as the output device 30, but the types of these devices are not particularly limited.

  The input receiving unit 11, the cash flow calculating unit 12, the future price calculating unit 13, and the repayment condition calculating unit 14 are all functionally specified, and are stored in an auxiliary storage device such as an HDD. Programs corresponding to the functions are read into the main memory, and the CPUs execute arithmetic processing, thereby realizing the functions corresponding to the respective functions. The real estate information DB 15, the loan contract DB 16, the rent model table 171, the cost table 172, the useful life table 173, and the discount rate table 174 are assigned storage areas of auxiliary storage devices such as HDDs.

  On the premise of the above configuration, the process flow of the future price prediction method according to the present invention according to the procedure shown in the flowchart of FIG. 11 using the example of the real estate information database and each table shown in FIGS. Will be described. In the following, the description will be made on the assumption that the target real estate is one room of a condominium that is a partly owned property of the building. However, in the present invention, the type of the target real estate and the calculation method of income generated from the real estate, etc. Is not limited to the examples described below.

  First, the input receiving unit 11 is activated, and receives information (part of X1 to Xi) related to the property to be evaluated, which is input using the input device 20, and a reference year (n) serving as a reference for evaluation ( S01). The information on the real estate that accepts the input here is used for calculation to predict the future price of the real estate, but does not require input of all necessary information (X1 to Xi). Assuming that the apartment is a room in a condominium, accepting information such as the location to identify the apartment building, the exclusive area that differs depending on the property owned by each section, and the specific area that cannot be identified from the building common information, do it.

  Next, the cash flow calculation unit 12 is activated, and the real estate information database 15 is searched by using, as a key, information that can specify the apartment building such as the location among the information on the real estate that has been accepted (S02). FIG. 5 shows an example of the real estate information database 15, but information common to the apartment building, not for each apartment room, such as the nearest station, distance from the station, transportation such as a bus, Information such as the structure of the building, the grade of the building, and the presence or absence of a parking lot is stored for each building.

  As a result of the search, if there is a corresponding building (S03), among the information (X1 to Xi) related to the real estate necessary for calculating the future price (X1 to Xi), the information related to the real estate that has been previously input (X1 to Xi) The shortage information that is not included in (part of) is read out from the real estate information database 15 (S04). In this way, among the information (X1 to Xi) related to real estate necessary for future price calculation, information that is common to buildings is read from the real estate information database 15 to narrow down information that needs to be input. Although it is possible to reduce the burden on the operator, it is necessary to receive input from the input device 20 for information such as the exclusive area and floors that are different depending on the sectioned property even in the same building.

  On the other hand, if the corresponding building does not exist as a result of the search (S03), the information (X1 to Xi) relating to the real estate necessary for the calculation of the future price cannot be specified, and therefore a predetermined error process is performed. . However, if the configuration requires that all necessary information is input from the input device 20, the process proceeds to S05.

  Next, the useful life table 173 is searched using the information on the structure of the building read from the real estate information database 15 as a key, and the useful life of the target real estate is specified (S05). Information regarding the structure of the building used as a search key may be input from the input device 20. In addition, the useful life used here is not limited to the legal useful life specified from the structure of the building, but in consideration of the actual useful life, for example, the same structure with a different useful life for each grade of building is applied. It is good to do.

  FIG. 9 shows an example of a useful life table 173 for specifying the useful life by the structure and grade of the building. When the useful life is specified by the table shown in this example, in addition to the structure of the building, Information regarding the grade of the building is also read out from the real estate information database 15 and used as a key when searching the useful life table 173.

  When the useful life is specified, it is compared with the reference year (n), which is the reference for the evaluation that has previously received the input (S06). If the reference year (n) is less than the useful life, the processing after S07 is continued. If the base year (n) is equal to or greater than the useful life, it will be after the useful life since the base year (n). Becomes impossible. As a result, since the future price becomes zero, predetermined error processing is performed, but the future price may be output as zero.

  Subsequently, the coefficient necessary for calculating the future income is read from the rent model table 171 and the data for calculating the future expenditure is read from the cost table 172 (S07), and the useful life comes from the next year (n + 1) of the base year. For each year up to the year to be calculated, the cash flow generated in each year is calculated by subtracting the expenditure from the income (S08). It should be noted that the period for which the cash flow is calculated here may start from the base year (n) as described above.

  As the rent model table 171 used here, two examples are shown in FIGS. In any example, what is stored here is the numerical value used to calculate the future income, that is, the rent when the target property is rented. Specifically, β0 is the base. Rents β1 to βi are coefficients of a multiple regression model that weights information (X1 to Xi) related to each property. These coefficients β1 to βi may be determined for each neighboring station or may be determined for each group of several nearby stations, for example. Moreover, it is good also as determining a coefficient group for every combination of each factor like non-parametric method (analysis method which does not assume function form beforehand) for every station, every area zone, every elapsed years.

For example, the base rent, which is a constant term, is β0, the coefficient of the nearest station to X1 of the nearest station is β1, the coefficient of the occupied area to X2 of the occupied area is β2, the coefficient of elapsed years with respect to y of the elapsed years is β3, Assuming that the coefficient βi for property information Xi is determined, the rent for each year is
Can be calculated as

  Here, as shown in the example of FIG. 6, if the coefficient of the rent model table 171 is constant regardless of the aging, the rent in each year changes only by the aging y, and the rent transition is linear according to the aging. It will drop to. On the other hand, as shown in the example of FIG. 7, if different combinations of values are set for the coefficients of the rent model table 171 depending on aging, not only the rent y but also other coefficients for each aging are different. The change in rent will change in a curve as time passes.

  In the present invention, the method for calculating the future rent may be any of the above methods, but if reliable data collection is possible, as shown in the example of FIG. More accurate prediction is possible by using the rent model table 171 having different coefficients. In addition, the method of calculating future revenues obtained from the target property is not limited to the method based on rent as described above. For example, other businesses obtained using real estate It may be based on income.

  Similarly, there is no particular limitation on the method for calculating each year's expenditure for the target property, but in the example of FIG. 8, maintenance costs and repair costs for each year are recorded as constants in the cost table 172. We are going to keep it. In addition to such a method, for example, the cost may be calculated by multiplying the income of each year by a certain expense ratio without using the cost table 172, and maintenance management for each property in the real estate information database 15 Costs, repair costs, etc. may be recorded in advance, and these may be read out and used.

  For each year from the next year after the base year (n + 1) to the year when the useful life comes, if the cash flow generated in each year is calculated by subtracting the expenditure from the income calculated as described above, the future value calculation The unit 13 is activated to read from the discount rate table 174 a discount rate for discounting each cash flow to the present value in the base year (n) (S09).

  FIG. 10 shows an example of the discount rate table 174, which stores the discount rate from one year later to the previous year (Y-1 years later) of the year in which the useful life comes. When such a table is used, there is a merit that a discount rate that varies from year to year can be applied, and even when a fixed discount rate is used, the process of calculating a value that discounts the cash flow of each year can be made more efficient. Since it is assumed that a fixed discount rate is used when calculating the NFV by the above-described equation, the configuration using the discount rate table 174 is not necessarily required.

  The discount rate used here is not particularly limited. For example, the forward rate is calculated from the yield curve of the spot rate of Japanese government bonds, and is determined from past statistics. The discount rate may be determined by adding the risk premium of the property.

  Subsequently, the cash flow generated in each year from the year following the base year (n + 1) to the year when the useful life arrives is discounted by the discount rate read from the discount rate table 174, and the present value in the base year (n) And the NFV that is the sum is calculated as the future price in the base year (n) of the target property (S10). As the future price calculated here, NFV may be used as it is, or a price calculated based on NFV, such as multiplying NFV by a predetermined multiplication factor, may be used as the future price.

  When the future price of the target property is calculated as described above, the calculation result is output to the output device 30 (S11), and the process is terminated. Note that the output of the calculation result to the output device 30 is not an essential requirement, and the calculated future price may be stored by writing it in a predetermined storage area of a storage device provided in the loan contract management device 10.

  Next, with respect to the loan contract management method according to the present invention for setting the repayment condition for the loan whose real estate is the responsible property using the future price prediction method according to the present invention, the loan scheme of FIG. 1 and the structure of FIG. The premise will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

  First, the input accepting unit 11 is activated, and accepts an input of a loan condition including a loan amount A and a loan period n years (in addition, applicable interest rate, number of repayments, repayment date, etc.) from the input device 20 (S21). Subsequently, the cash flow calculation unit 12 and the future price calculation unit 13 are activated, and the future price prediction method (S01 to S10) described above with reference to the flowchart of FIG. The future property price C after the year is calculated.

  When the property price C is calculated, the repayment condition calculation unit 14 is activated, and the calculated loan price A and the calculated property price C are compared (S22). If the loan amount A is equal to or higher than the property price C, the property price C is set as the principal balance B at the due date (S23), and if the property price C exceeds the loan amount A, the loan amount A is due Is set to the principal balance B in (S24). That is, in the latter case, the repayment of the principal is deferred until the redemption date, and the “partial principal deferred type” becomes a “deferred principal principal type” loan.

  As described above, in the present embodiment, when a so-called “multiplier” is used for property evaluation, the property price C is reflected by multiplying the NFV. The price obtained by performing a predetermined calculation such as multiplying the property price C by a factor may be set as the principal balance B instead of the property price C as it is as the principal balance B.

  Subsequently, a repayment condition of equal principal and interest is calculated so that the principal balance after the loan deadline n years later becomes B (S25). The method of calculating repayment conditions is not limited to equal interest and principal, but other repayment conditions such as equal principal payment may be used, but the debtor's repayment burden is leveled and compared with the rent when renting In order to facilitate, it is preferable to make the principal and interest equal.

  The calculated repayment conditions are written in the loan contract database 16 together with other loan conditions (S26) and output to the output device 30 (S27). Only one of them may be executed.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Financing contract management apparatus 11 Input reception part 12 Cash flow calculation part 13 Future price calculation part 14 Repayment condition calculation part 15 Real estate information DB
16 Loan Agreement DB
171 Rent model table 172 Cost table 173 Service life table 174 Discount rate table 20 Input device 30 Output device

Claims (9)

A device for predicting the future price of real estate,
Input receiving means for receiving input of information specifying a real estate for which a future price is predicted and a reference year that is a reference for predicting the future price;
Income and expenditure information reading means for reading out income and expenditure information necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage area of the storage device;
Cash flow calculation means for calculating the cash flow of each year from the base year or the year following the base year to the year when the useful life of the real estate comes, from the balance information;
The estimated future price of the real estate in the base year using the sum of the discounted cash flows discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the cash flows in each year Future price calculation means for calculating the future price;
Future price output means for executing a process of outputting the future price to an output device or writing to a predetermined storage area of a storage device;
A future price prediction apparatus characterized by comprising: If the reference year received by the input receiving means is a year that has passed the useful life of the real estate, error message output means for outputting an error message to the output device without performing the calculation by the future price calculating means The future price prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: Real estate that predicts future prices is a property owned by a building,
The information for identifying the real estate received by the input receiving means includes information for identifying the building that is subject to section ownership, and information for identifying the section owned property,
Building information storage means for storing information related to the buildings to be classified,
Building information specifying means for searching the building information storage means using information for specifying a building to be classified and included in the information specifying the real estate received by the input receiving means, and specifying information about the building Prepared,
3. The future price prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the balance information reading unit reads balance information corresponding to the information specified by the building information specifying unit from a predetermined storage device. A method for predicting the future price of real estate,
An input receiving step in which the computer receives information specifying a property for which a future price is predicted and a reference year that is a reference for predicting the future price;
Balance information reading step for the computer to read balance information necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage area of a storage device;
A cash flow calculation step in which the computer calculates a cash flow for each year from the base year or a year following the base year to a year when the useful life of the real estate comes, from the balance information;
The computer uses a value obtained by adding a discounted cash flow discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the cash flow in each year, and using the value obtained by adding a discount rate to the cash flow in the base year. A future price calculation step for calculating a future price that is a predicted price;
A future price output step in which the computer executes a process of outputting the future price to an output device or writing to a predetermined storage area of a storage device;
A method for predicting a future price, characterized by comprising: A device that calculates and manages the conditions of a loan contract for real estate as a responsible property,
Information regarding loan conditions including loan amount, information for identifying real estate for which future price is evaluated, and input receiving means for receiving input of a base year that is a repayment date of the loan and is a reference for predicting the future price;
Income and expenditure information reading means for reading out income and expenditure information necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage device;
Cash flow calculation means for calculating the cash flow of each year from the base year or the year following the base year to the year when the useful life of the real estate comes, from the balance information;
The estimated future price of the real estate in the base year using the sum of the discounted cash flows discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the cash flows in each year Future price calculation means for calculating the future price;
Repayment condition calculation means for calculating the repayment condition for the loan based on the information on the loan condition received by the input reception means by setting the evaluation amount based on the future price to the principal balance to be paid in a lump sum at the loan repayment deadline When,
Repayment condition output means for executing processing for outputting information on loan conditions including the repayment condition to an output device or writing to a predetermined storage area of a storage device;
A loan contract management apparatus comprising: If the future price calculated by the future price calculation means exceeds the loan amount received by the input reception means, the repayment condition calculation means will repay the lump sum of the loan amount until the repayment deadline, 6. The loan contract management apparatus according to claim 5, wherein a loan repayment condition is calculated. If the reference year received by the input receiving means is a year that has passed the useful life of the real estate, error message output means for outputting an error message to the output device without performing the calculation by the future price calculating means The loan contract management apparatus according to claim 5, wherein the loan contract management apparatus is provided. Real estate that predicts future prices is a property owned by a building,
The information for identifying the real estate received by the input receiving means includes information for identifying the building that is subject to section ownership, and information for identifying the section owned property,
Building information storage means for storing information related to the buildings to be classified,
Building information specifying means for searching the building information storage means using information for specifying a building to be classified and included in the information specifying the real estate received by the input receiving means, and specifying information about the building Prepared,
8. The loan contract management apparatus according to claim 5, wherein the balance information reading unit reads balance information corresponding to the information specified by the building information specifying unit from a predetermined storage device. A method of managing a loan contract that calculates and manages the conditions of a loan contract for real estate as a responsible property,
An input receiving step for accepting input of information regarding loan conditions including a loan amount, information for specifying a property for predicting a future price, and a reference year that is a loan repayment deadline and a reference for predicting a future price;
Balance information reading step for the computer to read balance information necessary for calculating future income and expenditure for the real estate from a predetermined storage area of a storage device;
A cash flow calculation step in which the computer calculates a cash flow for each year from the base year or a year following the base year to a year when the useful life of the real estate comes, from the balance information;
The computer uses a value obtained by adding a discounted cash flow discounted to the present value in the base year by applying a predetermined discount rate to the cash flow in each year, and using the value obtained by adding a discount rate to the cash flow in the base year. A future price calculation step for calculating a future price that is a predicted price;
The computer sets an evaluation amount based on the future price as a principal balance to be repaid in a lending repayment deadline, and calculates a loan repayment condition based on information on the loan condition received in the input reception step. Repayment condition calculation step,
Repayment condition output step for executing processing for outputting information related to the loan condition including the repayment condition to the output device or writing to a predetermined storage area of the storage device by the computer;
A method for managing a loan contract, characterized by comprising: