JP5524145B2 - Power supply / demand balance check method and power supply / demand balance check device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for checking a power supply / demand balance.

  When the supply and demand of electric power becomes tight due to a power supply trouble or the like, it is necessary for an electric power company to accurately and promptly determine whether or not to receive electric power (for example, nationwide power) from another electric power company. Such determination of the necessity of power reception is performed according to a result of a simulation (demand balance check) using supply and demand operation data of the automatic power supply system.

  In addition, regardless of power supply troubles, etc., in the normal supply and demand balance plan, simulation of the required amount of thermal power generator late-night shutdown and pumping plan is repeated several times to obtain the required amount of optimization.

Japanese Patent No. 3504072

  By the way, there are insufficient power (W reserve capacity is less than 3%) and insufficient power amount (Wh reserve capacity is insufficient) as factors for determining the necessity of power reception. It is necessary to calculate with this pattern. For example, if the actual temperature is expected to deviate significantly from the predicted temperature of the previous day, if a power supply problem occurs and the supply capacity decreases, it is possible to increase the number of hydroelectric generators owned by the company or generators purchased from other companies. If the generator is not capable of additional operation, the power supply or demand may fluctuate greatly. Must be calculated. Moreover, since some manual calculations are required, it takes time to study (simulate).

  In addition, in the balance plan for supply and demand in normal times, the simulation of the required amount of the thermal generator midnight stoppage and pumping plan requires verification of multiple patterns to judge the optimization of the required amount and economy. It takes time.

  Patent Document 1 discloses a power supply and demand plan creation device that creates an operation plan for starting and stopping a generator.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and a main object thereof is to reduce calculation load and improve prediction accuracy in a simulation of a balance between power supply and demand.

In order to solve the above-described problem, the present invention provides a method for checking a power supply / demand balance on a prediction target day or a prediction target time zone by a computer capable of communicating with an automatic power supply system, wherein the computer includes the automatic power supply system. Obtaining planned value data of the amount of power supplied by each generator from the power supply system, calculating the supplied power amount based on the planned value data, and a generator that may fall out of the generators Correcting the calculated power supply based on the amount of power supplied by the automatic power supply system, and calculating a past demand curve similar to a weather condition predicted from the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone from the automatic power supply system. acquired, and storing as a prediction demand curve, for the past demand curve to obtain an adjustment value for each predetermined time, based on the adjustment value, And correcting the predicted demand curve serial memory, and executes a step of calculating a power shortage amount based on the amount of power supply and predicted demand curve.
According to this configuration, it is possible to reduce the calculation load and improve the prediction accuracy in the simulation of the power supply / demand balance check.

Further, the present invention is a power supply / demand balance check method, wherein the computer is similar to a weather condition predicted from the automatic power feeding system on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone, and the prediction target date or Obtaining a past demand curve that is within a predetermined period before and after the day including the forecast target time zone and storing it as a forecast demand curve, and calculating a power shortage amount based on the supply power amount and the forecast demand curve And the step of performing.
According to this configuration, in the simulation of the power supply / demand balance check, the power shortage amount including the past demand curve within a predetermined period from the prediction target date is calculated, so that the prediction accuracy can be further improved. .

Further, the present invention is a power supply and demand balance check method, wherein the computer obtains a residual electric energy converted from a pumpable electric power related to a pumped-generator and a water amount of a reservoir from the automatic power supply system, and The step of calculating a power shortage amount based on the supplied power amount, the predicted demand curve, the liftable power and the remaining power amount is further executed.
According to this configuration, since the power shortage amount including the numerical value related to the pumped-storage generator is calculated, the prediction accuracy can be further improved.

The present invention is also a method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, wherein the computer calculates the amount of power shortage and, as a result, determines that the amount of power is insufficient, the amount of power received from the power system utilization council. Setting a nationwide power reception curve, correcting the supply power amount based on the nationwide power reception curve, the corrected supply power amount, the predicted demand curve, the upliftable power and the remaining power And a step of calculating a power shortage amount based on the power generation amount.
According to this configuration, when it is predicted that the amount of power will be insufficient with only the power generation facilities of the power company, the amount of supplied power can be increased by using nationwide accommodation.

The present invention is also a method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, wherein the computer subtracts the amount of power supplied from the predicted demand curve and stores the subtracted difference value as a first power amount shortage amount. When the power shortage obtained by converting the difference value into power is larger than the liftable power, the stored first power shortage is changed to a power shortage with the liftable power as an upper limit. And when the first power shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power consumption, the first power shortage amount is stored as a pumped-storage power generation usage amount, and the first shortage power amount is calculated from the difference value by the first Storing the value obtained by subtracting the power shortage amount as a second power shortage amount that is actually short, and if the first power shortage amount is greater than the remaining power amount, Necessary pumped-storage power generation Stored as a dose, characterized in that it further executes the step of storing a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power force from the first power amount shortage as the second amount of power shortage.
According to this configuration, when the shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power amount, the shortage amount is used as the pumped-storage power generation amount, so that the minimum necessary pumped-storage power generation can be performed. When the shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the shortage amount can be specified as the actual shortage amount.

  In addition, in the supply and demand balance plan under normal conditions, it is possible to suggest that the shortage of supply power that occurs when a thermal power generator is stopped at midnight is lower in the combined incremental unit price than a thermal power generator that has stopped and can be economically supplemented. it can. In addition, it is possible to easily present an economic comparison of whether the overfired power is stopped at midnight or whether it is continuously operated and pumped with surplus.

  The present invention includes a power supply / demand balance check device. In addition, the problems disclosed in the present application and the solutions thereof will be clarified by the column of the best mode for carrying out the invention and the drawings.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to reduce the calculation load and improve the prediction accuracy in the simulation of the power supply / demand balance check. In addition, in the supply and demand balance plan, it is possible to improve the judgment accuracy regarding the economic efficiency and implementation of the thermal power generator at midnight and the pumping plan.

It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of the structure of the supply-and-demand balance check system 1, and the supply-and-demand balance check apparatus 2. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structure of the data stored in the memory | storage part 36 of the automatic electric power feeding system 3, (a) shows the data structure of plan value DB36A, (b) shows the data structure of performance value DB36B. It is a figure which shows the structure of the data stored in the memory | storage part 36 of the automatic electric power feeding system 3. FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the supply-and-demand balance check process in the supply-and-demand balance check apparatus 2. FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the process of calculation and determination of electric power shortage amount. It is a graph which concerns on the calculation and determination process of electric power shortage amount, (a) shows the example in case the shortage amount of MWh conversion which makes an upper limit the electric power which can be raised is smaller than an electric power generation amount after raising, (b ) Shows an example of a large case. It is a flowchart which shows an EDC (equal lambda) calculation process. It is a graph which concerns on EDC (equal (lambda)) calculation processing, (a) shows the increment unit price output curve of each unit, (b) and (c) shows a synthetic | combination increment unit price output curve, (d) is each parallel thermal power. (E) shows a pumped-storage generator output. It is an example of the supply and demand balance check summary screen in a normal state. It is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen when a 1000 MW thermal power plant (C) drops out from 10:00 to 24:00. 11 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen for performing detailed input and display of steam power in the case of FIG. 10. It is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen when receiving power for nationwide accommodation. FIG. 13 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen for performing detailed input and display of accommodation in the case of FIG. 12. It is an example of the supply and demand balance check summary screen showing the results and plans of the day. It is an example of a supply-and-demand situation graph.

  Hereinafter, the best mode for carrying out the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The supply and demand balance check method according to the embodiment of the present invention is a supply and demand balance check device 2 that includes supply value plan data, power demand, and pumped storage power generation from an automatic load dispatching control system (ADS) 3. Actual power value data, etc. are acquired, adjustment value data such as thermal power and pumping power from the outside are acquired, and the amount of power is checked based on the acquired data.

<< System and device configuration >>
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a supply and demand balance check system 1 and a hardware configuration of a supply and demand balance check device 2.

  The supply / demand balance check system 1 includes a supply / demand balance check device 2 and an automatic power supply system 3. Data can be transmitted and received between the supply and demand balance check device 2 and the automatic power supply system 3 through a communication line such as a LAN (Local Area Network) or the Internet.

  The supply and demand balance check device 2 acquires plan values, actual values, and base data related to power supply and demand from the automatic power supply system 3, acquires adjustment value data related to power supply and demand through an operator's input operation, and the like. Is a device for checking the excess or deficiency of the electric energy based on the above, and is realized by a general-purpose PC (Personal Computer) or the like. The automatic power supply system 3 is a system that performs overall control of main generators and central power supply command offices under the jurisdiction of an electric power company, and is realized by a plurality of servers including an ELD (Economic Load Dispatching) server. In particular, plan values, actual values, and base data relating to power supply and demand are stored and accumulated and provided to the supply and demand balance check device 2.

  The supply and demand balance check device 2 includes a communication unit 21, a display unit 22, an input unit 23, a printing unit 24, a processing unit 25, and a storage unit 26. The communication unit 21 is a part that communicates with other devices via a communication line, and is realized by a NIC (Network Interface Card) or the like. The display unit 22 is a part that displays data (for example, a screen for supply and demand balance check) according to an instruction from the processing unit 25, and is realized by, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD). The input unit 23 is a part where an operator inputs data (for example, adjustment value data relating to power supply and demand), and is realized by a keyboard, a mouse, or the like. The printing unit 24 is a part that prints data (for example, verification data of power reception status) on a form or the like according to an instruction from the processing unit 25, and is realized by, for example, a laser beam printer (LBP). . The processing unit 25 exchanges data between other units and controls the entire supply / demand balance check apparatus 2. A CPU (Central Processing Unit) executes a program stored in a predetermined memory. Is realized. The storage unit 26 stores data from the processing unit 25 and reads the stored data, and is realized by a nonvolatile storage device such as a flash memory or a hard disk device. In addition, the server which comprises the automatic electric power feeding system 3 shall have the structure similar to the supply-and-demand balance check apparatus 2. FIG.

<< Data structure >>
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of data stored in the storage unit 36 (not shown) of the automatic power supply system 3. FIG. 2A shows the data structure of the plan value DB 36A. The plan value DB 36A is a DB that stores plan values related to the supply and demand of electric energy after the current time. The total demand 36A1, the self-stream 36A2, the pumped water 36A3, the thermal power 36A4, the internal combustion power 36A5, and the nuclear power 36A6 in the time zone every 30 minutes. , The government 36A7, the electricity generation 36A8, the co-fire 36A9, the accommodation 36A10, the spot 36A11 and the national accommodation 36A12. Total demand 36A1 shows the total demand of the electric energy in the whole electric power company jurisdiction area. The self-flow 36A2 indicates the amount of power generated by the self-flow hydraulic power. Pumped water 36A3 indicates the amount of power generated by hydropower using the water of the reservoir. Thermal power 36A4 indicates the amount of power generated by thermal power (also referred to as steam). The internal combustion force 36A5 indicates an internal combustion power generation amount of a remote island or the like. Nuclear power 36A6 indicates the amount of power generated by nuclear power. Publicly-run 36A7 indicates the amount of power generated by hydropower such as prefecture-run. The electricity generation 36A8 is the amount of power received from the power supply development corporation. The cofire 36A9 is the amount of electric power received from the joint thermal power generation company. The interchange 36A10 is the amount of power exchanged through the link between the power companies. If the value is positive, it indicates the amount of power received from the other company, and if it is negative, the amount of power supplied to the other company. Show. The spot 36A11 indicates the amount of power purchased by the power company from the business partner. National accommodation 36A12 indicates the amount of power received through national accommodation.

  Nationwide interchange is aimed at mutual cooperation related to wide-area management based on the purpose of Article 28 of the Electricity Business Law, and in order to maintain a stable supply of electric power in the jurisdiction control area, As a last resort, it is the power to receive power. Actually, the power is received by requesting to receive power from the Electric Power System Council of Japan (ESCJ), but it cannot be used as an economic act. An explanation of the situation is required.

  FIG. 2B shows the data structure of the actual value DB 36B. The actual value DB 36B is a DB that stores actual values related to the supply and demand of electric energy up to the current time. The total demand 36B1, the self-stream 36B2, the pumped water 36B3, the thermal power 36B4, the internal combustion power 36B5, and the nuclear power 36B6 in the time zone every 30 minutes. , Public 36B7, electricity generation 36B8, cofire 36B9, accommodation 36B10, spot 36B11, nationwide accommodation 36B12, upliftable power 36B13, and remaining power 36B14. The total demand 36B1 to the nationwide accommodation 36B12 is the same as the total demand 36A1 to the nationwide accommodation 36A12 of the plan value DB 36A. The pumpable electric power 36B13 indicates the electric power that can be supplied by the entire pumped-storage generator, and specifically, is the total value of the authorized outputs of the pumped-storage power generation that can generate electric power. The remaining power 36B14 indicates a value obtained by converting the amount of water stored in the reservoir into the amount of power.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a configuration of data stored in the storage unit 36 of the automatic power supply system 3, and particularly shows a data configuration of the base DB 36C. The base DB 36C is a DB that stores data serving as a base for supply and demand balance check processing. The ELD form data 36C1, the past similar demand record 36C2, the thermal power unit price 36C3, the supply power upper and lower limit 36C4, the nationwide interchange power 36C5, and spot information 36C6 is stored. The ELD form data 36C1 is form data output from the ELD server of the automatic power supply system 3, and is, for example, a planned value such as supply power and interchangeable electric energy of interconnection lines between other companies. The past similar demand record 36C2 is a record value of the total amount of power demand every 30 minutes. The thermal power unit price 36C3 is an operating cost per unit time related to thermal power generation. The unit price of operation is generally nuclear power <self-current hydropower <thermal power, and is calculated by accumulating the supply capacity in the order of the lowest unit price, and the shortage with respect to the predicted demand is further covered by pumped storage power generation. The supply force upper / lower limit value 36C4 is a unit total output upper limit value and a unit total output lower limit value used in the EDC calculation process. The nationwide power 36C5 is the power received by the nationwide power. The spot information 36C6 is a power transmission / reception power plan value by spot transaction.

≪Demand and supply balance check process≫
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing supply / demand balance check processing in the supply / demand balance check apparatus 2. The supply and demand balance check process is executed every 30 minutes.

  First, the supply and demand balance check device 2 calculates supply power from each data of the supply and demand operation plan of the automatic power supply system 3 (S401). Specifically, base data (ELD form data 36C1 to spot information 36C6) of the supply and demand operation plan created by the ELD server is extracted from the base DB 36C, and the supply power is calculated using the base data. To do. Further, it is possible to take in the actual supply force value, grasp an error from the planned supply force value, and correct the supply force data. When the supply and demand operation plan is changed, the base data is re-imported each time and used for the supply and demand balance check. In that case, the data before the change is not retained. Also, when re-importing base data from the supply and demand operation plan, it is possible to select whether to manually store or discard the manually input data for the previously manually input locations.

  Next, a similar past demand curve is acquired from the automatic power supply system 3, and is set as a predicted demand curve (total demand) (S402). Specifically, an arbitrary past demand curve similar to the predicted day or time zone is searched from the past similar demand record 36C2 of the base DB 36C through the automatic power supply system 3, and extracted as a predicted demand curve (predicted demand curve). . When predicting the next day (prediction target day) or future part of the day (prediction target time zone), the calendar, weather forecast (climate conditions such as temperature and sunshine), and season (demand varies depending on the season even for the same temperature / weather) Or, a past demand curve for a similar day or time zone is extracted. For example, a past demand curve that is within a predetermined period (for example, 30 days) before and after the day including the prediction target date and the prediction target time zone is extracted. In addition, a past demand curve similar to the weather condition predicted on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone is extracted. Then, the extracted past demand curve is handled as a predicted demand curve (total demand). Here, when searching for a past demand curve, it is possible to capture past demand results on a specified date. In addition, the captured past demand record can be corrected every 30 minutes. For example, in recent years, the use of late-night power has been promoted by eco-ice (a system that uses cheap nighttime electricity to store ice during cooling and hot water during heating and uses it for air conditioning). Is increasing compared to the past, so when using data from three years ago, the demand curve for midnight (from 0:00 to 6:00) is corrected to add about +100 MW. In the supply and demand balance check process, it is also possible to calculate the supply capacity using a variety of possible past demand curves.

  Subsequently, the actual power supply value including the pumped-storage power generation is taken in from the automatic power supply system 3 (S403). Specifically, the self-flow 36B2 to the remaining power 36B14 are captured.

  Then, an insufficient amount of electric power is calculated from the supply capacity (planned value, actual value), total demand, and actual value of pumped storage power generation (S404), and it is determined whether the electric energy is insufficient (S405). Details of the calculation and determination of the power shortage will be described later. When the power amount is insufficient, the display unit 22 displays the insufficient amount character color of the insufficient time in red. In addition, the display of the amount of pumped-storage power generation, the amount of power shortage, and the amount of remaining power is the total value of the entire pumped-storage generator. In addition, the amount of pumped-storage power generation, the amount of power shortage, and the amount of remaining power when an arbitrary power loss occurs are calculated. In this case, since the supply capacity is reduced due to the power supply being dropped, the amount of pumped-storage power generation increases and the amount of power shortage also increases.

  Here, if the amount of power is not insufficient (N in S405), the supply and demand balance check process is terminated as it is. However, even if the MWh conversion amount is sufficient, if the MW conversion amount (height) is insufficient, it is determined that “the power amount is insufficient”. If the amount of power is insufficient (Y in S405), the supply power is corrected with the nationwide power reception curve (S406). Specifically, the operator sets various nationwide power reception patterns (curves), and for each, the supply and demand balance check device 2 performs calculation and determination processing of the power shortage amount, and derives an optimal power reception pattern. . Specifically, first, the power reception pattern is captured from the ELD server of the automatic power feeding system 3 or is manually input from the input unit 23 of the supply and demand balance check device 2 to be reflected in the supply power. Then, the power shortage amount is recalculated by the supply power. Repeat this to identify the optimal power reception pattern. In addition, even if it receives the national interchange once, it may receive the national interchange again due to changes in the situation, and the power reception pattern (taken from the ELD server) that has already been processed and the additional power reception pattern created by the operator Both may be reflected in the supply capacity, and the calculation and determination process of the power shortage may be performed.

  In addition, even if the number of times of nationwide power reception / reception is multiple times, it can be handled. In the case of nationwide accommodation, a value is obtained from the notification value of the combined power amount of other power interconnection ports, and unnecessary portions are excluded from the accommodation subtraction of the supply and demand operation plan data (see the explanation in FIG. 13). As for the spot in-house power reception, a value is acquired from the spot information 36C6, and unnecessary portions are excluded from the interchange of the supply and demand operation plan data.

  Next, verification data of the supply and demand results when receiving the national accommodation is generated (S407). Subsequently, the power shortage is calculated from the corrected supply capacity, total demand, and the actual value of pumped-storage power generation (S408). Then, it is determined again whether or not the amount of power is insufficient (S405).

  The supply / demand balance check process described above is performed in units of 30 minutes, and the supply power distribution of the thermal power is calculated by an EDC (equal λ) calculation process. The heating power upper limit value used for the supply and demand balance check process is the ELD distribution upper limit. The incremental unit price used for the supply / demand balance check process takes in the value of the latest date set by the pumping unit price calculation function. The EDC calculation target at the time of supply-demand balance check processing can be set and canceled for each unit and time.

  Here, the process of calculating the amount of pumped storage power generation and the required pump amount on the next day will be described. By obtaining the predicted remaining pumped power generation amount at 0:00 the next day, which is input by the operator to the supply / demand balance check device 2, the estimated amount of pumped storage power generation for the next day and the maximum power loss from the supply capacity of the supply / demand operation plan (next day) Calculate pumped-storage power generation and pump requirements.

-Units subject to calculation (units that may fall off): In-house thermal power (coal, oil), nuclear power [1] Estimated usage of pumped-storage power generation based on current supply capacity, calculation method of required pump capacity (1) Scheduled use of pumped-storage power generation Amount (MWh): Expected amount of pumped-storage power generation assuming that all the power shortage will be supplied by pumped-storage power generation (kW constraint: pumpable power (MW), kWh constraint: residual pumped power (MWh))
(2) Necessary amount of pump (MWh) * 1 = (Necessary pumped power generation amount (MWh) * 2-0 Remaining electric energy (MWh) at 0-0) / Pump efficiency However, it is zero when minus.
* 1: Electricity required for the pump to be used to secure the planned use of pumped storage power generation * 2: Pumped electric power generation amount assuming that all the insufficient power supply for the next day will be supplied by pumped electric power generation (kW constraint: pumping (MW), kWh restriction: not considered)

[2] Calculation method for estimated amount of pumped-storage power generation and required pump capacity when the maximum power is cut off (1) EDC calculation of current supply capacity is performed. Details of the EDC calculation will be described later.
(2) Determine the dropout unit. Specifically, among the units, the unit having the maximum daily amount is identified from the calculation result of (1).
(3) Using the calculation method of [1], obtain the estimated amount of pumped storage power generation and the required pump amount.

  FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing processing for calculating and determining the power shortage amount. This process shows the details of S404, S405, and S408 in FIG.

  The supply-demand balance check device 2 first calculates the amount of power shortage excluding the pumped-storage power generation and pumping power (S501). Specifically, the deficiency is calculated according to the following equations 1-3. That is, the total demand is calculated by Equation 1, the supply power is calculated by Equation 2, and the shortage is calculated from the total demand and supply force by Equation 3. According to Equation 3, the shortage amount indicates that the power amount is insufficient when the value is positive, and indicates that the power amount is sufficient when the value is zero or negative. The right side of Equation 2 for calculating the supply power originally includes the term “+ pumped power generation-pumping power”. Here, however, pumped power generation is not used as much as possible, in other words, it is covered by another generator. If it is not possible to use pumped-storage power generation, the required amount of pumped-storage power generation will be calculated later.

Total demand = Total demand base + Total demand correction value (1)
Supply power = Self-current + Thermal power (steam power) + Internal combustion power + Nuclear power + Government + Electricity generation + Cofire + Interchange + Spot + National interchange ... Formula 2
Insufficient quantity = total demand-supply capacity ・ ・ ・ Equation 3

  In Equation 1, the total demand base is the predicted demand curve in S402. The total demand correction value can be used to correct the predicted demand curve every 30 minutes, and may be an adjustment value that can be input to the input unit 23 of the demand balance check device 2 by an operator. It may be an adjustment value acquired from the communication unit 21 via. In Equation 2, each item corresponds to each data in the plan value DB 36A.

  If the amount of electric power is sufficient (N in S502), pumped water power generation is unnecessary, and therefore, the pumped water power generation consumption is set to 0 (S506). In this case, the actual shortage amount = 0. When the amount of electric power is insufficient (Y in S502), it is determined whether or not the amount of deficiency converted to MW is equal to or lower than the electric power that can be raised (S503). As the upliftable power, the upliftable power 36B13 of the actual value DB 36B is used.

  If it is equal to or less than the power that can be raised (Y in S503), it is determined whether or not the shortage amount in terms of MWh is equal to or less than the remaining power amount (S504). As the remaining power amount, the remaining power amount 36B14 of the actual value DB 36B is used (the same applies hereinafter). When the amount is less than the remaining power (Y in S504), the amount of pumped-storage power generation is set to an insufficient amount (S507). In this case, since the amount of electric power is sufficient, the actual shortage amount = 0. When it is larger than the remaining power amount (N in S504), the pumped power generation usage amount is set to the MW-converted remaining power amount (S508). In this case, “shortage amount−remaining power amount” is the actual shortage amount.

  When the shortage amount converted to MW is larger than the power that can be lifted (N in S503), it is determined whether or not the shortage amount converted to MWh that has the maximum power that can be lifted is equal to or less than the remaining power amount (S505). When the amount is less than the remaining power (see FIG. 6 (a)) (Y in S505), the required amount of pumped-storage power generation is set to a deficit with an upper limit of the pumpable power (see FIG. 6 (a)) (S509). . In this case, “the shortage amount—the shortage amount whose upper limit is electric power that can be pumped” is the actual shortage amount. When it is larger than the remaining power amount (see FIG. 6B) (N in S505), the pumped power generation usage amount = the remaining power amount converted to MW (S510). In this case, “shortage amount−remaining power amount” is the actual shortage amount.

  FIG. 6 is a graph relating to the calculation and determination processing of the power shortage amount. FIG. 6A shows an example in which the shortage amount in terms of MWh with the upper limit of the power that can be raised is smaller than the remaining amount of generated power that is raised. From 10:00 to 10:30, the supply capacity will be insufficient by 100 MW, so even if there is a surplus in the amount of power that can be generated, supplementation with national flexibility is required. The same applies to 10:30 to 11:00 because the supply capacity is insufficient by 300 MW. FIG. 6B shows an example in which the shortage amount is larger than the pumped residual power generation amount. From 10:00 to 10:30, the supply capacity is insufficient by 100 MW. From 10:30 to 11:00, the supply capacity is insufficient by 300 MW. From 11:00 to 11:30, the pumped remaining power generation amount becomes “0”, so that the supply capacity is insufficient by 100 MW.

From the above, it is determined whether or not the amount of power is insufficient according to the actual shortage. The remaining power amount and the required pump energy amount are calculated according to the following equations 4 and 5.
Residual power (T) = Remaining power (T-1) −Pumped power generation (T) / 2 + (Pumping power (T) / 2) × Pumping efficiency ・ ・ ・ Equation 4
Necessary electric power of pump = (Short amount after Σ pumping distribution (T) / 2) / Pumping efficiency ・ ・ ・ Equation 5
(However, if the excess / deficiency (T) after the lifting allocation exceeds the lifting possibility (T), it shall be due to the lifting possibility (T).)

  FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing EDC (equal λ) calculation processing. The EDC (equal λ) calculation process performed in the supply and demand balance check process of the supply and demand balance check device 2 acquires data of each power generation unit from the pumping unit price calculation function and calculation conditions of the ELD server, and calculates the pumped unit power generation unit price. . This is because, when pumping using a pump at midnight, the unit price of the converted power stored in the reservoir changes depending on how much the unit price of the pump is pumped.

  As an outline of the processing, the incremental unit price of each generator can be expressed by a linear function with the vertical unit price and the horizontal axis output (see FIG. 8A). When a composite unit price output curve (see FIG. 8B) in which an incremental curve of a linear function for each generator is combined into one curve is created, {horizontal axis = total output (thermal power sharing demand) = demand− An incremental unit price for the fixed supply power} appears (see FIG. 8C). Details will be described below.

  First, the supply and demand balance check device 2 obtains the minimum output value, the rated output value, the increment unit price at the minimum output and the increment unit price at the rated output for each thermal power unit to be calculated, and puts it on the coordinate plane of the output-increment unit price. Plot (S701). FIG. 8A shows a graph in which each value is plotted. Here, the minimum output value uses the pumping unit price calculation function of the ELD server and the “output min” calculation condition. For the rated output value, the pumping unit price calculation function and the “output max” calculation condition are used. For the incremental unit price at the minimum output, the pumping unit price calculation function and the calculation condition “loss including λmin” are used. However, if the minimum output value is below the unit lower limit value, λ is recalculated from the unit lower limit value. For the increment unit price at the rated output, the pumping unit price calculation function and the calculation condition “loss including λmax” are used. However, if the rated output value exceeds the unit upper limit value, λ is recalculated from the unit upper limit value.

Next, the supply-demand balance check apparatus 2 creates a combined incremental unit price output curve based on each acquired λ (S702). By adding the linear functions of the line segments shown in FIG. 8A, a graph in which the line segments of the linear function are connected as shown in FIG. 8B is obtained.

  And the demand-and-supply balance check apparatus 2 calculates | requires a thermal power share demand by deducting fixed supply power from a demand prediction for every time cross section (S703). The fixed supply power is supply power that does not include pumped-up and thermal power, and may add coal-fired power with a low unit price of power generation.

  Subsequently, the supply and demand balance check device 2 identifies a section including the total output that matches the thermal power sharing demand from the combined incremental unit price output curve array, and linearly approximates the points before and after the total output (both ends of the section). An incremental unit price is obtained (S704). As shown in FIG. 8 (c), the section including the total output has points A and B as both ends. From the linear function passing through the points A and B and the total output, the unit price is incremented. Is required.

  Then, the supply and demand balance check device 2 obtains the distribution output of each power generation unit based on the incremental unit price (S705). When the sum of the distribution outputs of each unit is not equal to the thermal power sharing demand, correction is performed by the following method. That is, when the sum of the distributed outputs of each unit> thermal power sharing demand (excess supply capacity), the output is lowered from the unit with poor fuel efficiency. As shown in FIG. 8D, the minimum output is allocated for λ that is larger than the incremental unit price obtained in S704. However, the condition is that the target unit does not fall below the output lower limit. On the other hand, when the sum of the distributed outputs of each unit <the thermal power sharing demand (insufficient supply capacity), the output is increased from the fuel efficient unit. As shown in FIG. 8D, the maximum output is allocated for λ smaller than the increment unit price obtained in S704. However, the condition is that the target unit does not exceed the output upper limit.

  Furthermore, when the thermal power sharing demand exceeds the total output of all units, the supply and demand balance check device 2 allocates the shortage as the pumped-storage generator output (S706). As shown in FIG. 8 (e), when the power demand exceeds the parallel thermal power full line, the excess is allocated to the pumped-storage power generation. However, it is assumed that the remaining amount = 0. That is, only the water in the reservoir at that time is used for power generation, and no new water is pumped into the reservoir. This is because when the power generation by pumping is being carried out, all the thermal machines are at full output and cannot be pumped. The pump runs on thermal, hydro and nuclear power.

≪Screen display example≫
9-14 is a figure which shows the example of the screen displayed on the display part 22 of the supply-and-demand balance check apparatus 2. As shown in FIG.

  FIG. 9 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen in a normal state. The planned value of each item is displayed every 30 minutes and corresponds to each data in the planned value DB 36A of the automatic power feeding system 3. The total demand corresponds to the total demand 36A1. The supply capacity is a value obtained by subtracting the pumping power from the sum of the planned values of the self-flow to the national interchange. Excess or deficiency is a value obtained by subtracting total demand from supply capacity. Self-flow to national accommodation corresponds to self-flow 36A2 to national accommodation 36A12, respectively. The pumping power is the amount of electric power for pumping water into the reservoir, and corresponds to the required electric energy of the pump calculated using Equation 5. The reserve pumping is a value obtained by subtracting the pumped power generation power use (see the description of FIG. 5) from the pumpable power (total amount of pumped generators). The thermal power of the reserve power is a value obtained by subtracting the thermal power generation output from the thermal power operation upper limit output possible amount. The remaining power is calculated from the remaining power 36B14 in the actual value DB 36B of the automatic power feeding system 3 using Equation 4. It can be said that the total value of the supply capacity and the reserve capacity is the power generation capability.

  FIG. 10 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen when a 1000 MW thermal power plant (C) drops out from 10:00 to 24:00. When the reserve power becomes 0 and the steam reaches full power at 9:00, the shortage is replenished by lifting. Next, as a result of some thermal power generators dropping out at 10:00, steam power decreased from 10:00, and excess and deficit became negative from 14:00, which caused supply shortage. Further, when the lift starts to output at 9:00, the remaining amount decreases accordingly. And as a result of the remaining amount becoming 0 at 14:00, raising is 0 at 14:30.

  FIG. 11 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen for performing detailed input and display of steam power in the case of FIG. The power generation amount of each thermal power generator every 30 minutes is displayed, and the total value thereof is displayed as a power meter. As a result of the C thermal power generator dropping off at 10:00, the steam power of C became 0 from 10:00, and the power meter decreased accordingly.

  FIG. 12 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen when receiving nationwide accommodation. In order to cope with the shortage of supply due to the dropout of some thermal power generators that occurred at 10:00, the country has been supplied with electricity from 12:00. As a result, the excess or deficiency after 14:00 is zero, and the supply shortage is resolved.

  FIG. 13 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen for performing detailed input and display of accommodation in the case of FIG. The accrual deduction is the sum of the accomodation, spot meter and national interchange meter. The spot meter is a value obtained by subtracting the spot power transmission from the spot power reception. The national accommodation meter is the sum of the amount of electricity received from each nationwide interchange after the first. For example, 12:00 300 is equal to the first 300, and 13:00 500 is the first 300 and second. The total value of 200.

  FIG. 14 is an example of a supply and demand balance check summary screen showing the results and plans for the day. The actual value is displayed until 19:30, and the plan value is displayed after 20:00.

≪Example of electricity supply and demand situation≫
FIG. 15 is an example of a supply and demand situation graph. This figure shows a case where power is received in three separate steps in order to cope with supply shortage with respect to the total demand. If the first interchange is not received, the remaining amount becomes 0 at 12:00 and the reserve capacity of the supply power is lost. When the first interchange is received and the second interchange is not received, the remaining amount becomes zero at 14:30. If the first and second interchanges are received and the third interchange is not received, the remaining amount will eventually become zero.

  Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, in order to make each unit in the supply-demand balance check device 2 shown in FIG. 1 function, a program executed by the processing unit 25 is recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, It is assumed that the power supply / demand balance check method according to the embodiment of the present invention is realized by causing the computer to read and execute the recorded program. Note that the program may be provided to the computer via a network such as the Internet, or a semiconductor chip or the like in which the program is written may be incorporated in the computer.

  According to the embodiment of the present invention described above, it is possible to reduce the calculation load and improve the prediction accuracy in the simulation of the power supply / demand balance check. And when it is predicted that the amount of power will be insufficient with only the power generation facilities of the power company, the amount of supplied power can be increased by utilizing nationwide accommodation.

  In addition, when the shortage is equal to or less than the remaining power, the shortage is used as the amount of pumped-storage power generation, so that the minimum necessary pumped-power generation can be performed. When the shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the shortage amount can be specified as the actual shortage amount. And when the power (height) is insufficient and the amount of electric power (area) is sufficient, “elevable power x unit time” is supplied as the amount of pumped-storage power generation, and the pumped-power generation from the shortage The value obtained by subtracting the amount used can be specified as the actual shortage.

  In addition, since the power supply amount and the demand amount can be finely adjusted by the operator's input operation and data reception through the network, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the power supply / demand balance check.

  Also, at midnight, using a similar forecast demand curve, it is possible to calculate the amount of electric power and the time zone where the minimum output total value of the upper-fired thermal power generator is excessive, or to stop the upper-fired thermal power generator at midnight ( This method can also be used to grasp the incremental unit price of a thermal power generator that supplements the amount of power shortage due to DSS (Daily Startup and Shutdown). And based on these obtained results, the economics of implementing a late-night shutdown (DSS) of the thermal power generator due to the amount of power when surplus was avoided, and the pump stoppage was avoided In this case, it is possible to easily compare and evaluate the economics of demand adjustment and improve the accuracy of selection determination.

  Although the best mode for carrying out the present invention has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and equivalents thereof are also included in the present invention.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Supply-demand balance check system 2 Supply-demand balance check apparatus 25 Processing part 26 Storage part 3 Automatic power feeding system 36 Storage part 36A Plan value DB
36B Actual value DB
36C Base DB

Claims (12)

A method for checking the supply and demand balance of power in a prediction target day or a prediction target time zone by a computer that can communicate with an automatic power supply system,
The computer
Obtaining plan value data of the amount of power supplied by each generator from the automatic power supply system, and calculating the supply power amount based on the plan value data;
Correcting the calculated power supply amount based on the amount of power supplied by a generator that may fall out of the generators;
From the automatic power supply system, obtaining a past demand curve similar to a weather condition predicted on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone, and storing it as a predicted demand curve;
Obtaining an adjustment value for each predetermined time with respect to the past demand curve, and correcting the stored predicted demand curve based on the adjustment value;
Calculating a power shortage based on the supply power and the predicted demand curve;
A power supply-demand balance check method characterized by executing It is the electric power supply-and-demand balance check method of Claim 1, Comprising:
The computer
A past demand curve that is similar to the weather condition predicted from the automatic power supply system on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone and is within a predetermined period before and after the prediction target date or the date including the prediction target time zone And storing as a forecast demand curve;
Calculating a power shortage based on the supply power and the predicted demand curve;
A method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, further comprising: It is the electric power supply-demand balance check method of Claim 1 or Claim 2, Comprising:
The computer
Obtaining a residual electric energy converted from the pumpable power and the amount of water in the reservoir from the automatic power supply system;
Calculating a power shortage amount based on the supply power amount, the predicted demand curve, the upliftable power and the remaining power amount;
A method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, further comprising: A power supply / demand balance check method according to claim 3,
The computer
As a result of calculating the power shortage amount, when it is determined that the power amount is short,
Setting up a nationwide power receiving curve for the amount of power received from the Power System Utilization Council;
Correcting the amount of power supplied based on the national interchange power receiving curve;
Calculating a power shortage amount based on the corrected power supply amount, the predicted demand curve, the upliftable power and the remaining power amount;
A method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, further comprising: It is the electric power supply-and-demand balance check method of Claim 3 or Claim 4, Comprising:
The computer
Subtracting the supplied power amount from the predicted demand curve, and storing the subtracted difference value as a first power amount shortage amount;
When the power shortage amount obtained by converting the difference value into electric power is larger than the liftable power, the stored first power shortage amount is changed to a power shortage amount with the liftable power as an upper limit. When,
When the first power shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power amount, the first power shortage amount is stored as a pumped-storage power consumption amount, and the first power amount is calculated from the power shortage amount based on the difference value. Storing a value obtained by subtracting the shortage amount as a second shortage amount of power that is actually insufficient;
When the first power shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, the remaining power amount is stored as a necessary amount of pumped-storage power generation, and a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the first power shortage amount Storing as the second power shortage amount;
A method for checking the balance between power supply and demand, further comprising: A method for checking the supply and demand balance of power in a prediction target day or a prediction target time zone by a computer that can communicate with an automatic power supply system,
The computer
Obtaining plan value data of the amount of power supplied by each generator from the automatic power supply system, and calculating the supply power amount based on the plan value data;
From the automatic power supply system, obtaining a past demand curve similar to a weather condition predicted on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone, and storing it as a predicted demand curve;
Obtaining a residual electric energy converted from the pumpable power and the amount of water in the reservoir from the automatic power supply system;
Subtracting the supplied power amount from the predicted demand curve, and storing the subtracted difference value as a first power amount shortage amount;
When the power shortage amount obtained by converting the difference value into electric power is larger than the liftable power, the stored first power shortage amount is changed to a power shortage amount with the liftable power as an upper limit. When,
When the first power shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power amount, the first power shortage amount is stored as a pumped-storage power consumption amount, and the first power amount is calculated from the power shortage amount based on the difference value. Storing a value obtained by subtracting the shortage amount as a second shortage amount of power that is actually insufficient;
When the first power shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, the remaining power amount is stored as a necessary amount of pumped-storage power generation, and a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the first power shortage amount Storing as the second power shortage amount;
A power supply-demand balance check method characterized by executing A power supply / demand balance check device that is communicable with an automatic power supply system and that checks a power supply / demand balance in a prediction target day or a prediction target time zone,
Means for obtaining plan value data of the amount of power supplied by each generator from the automatic power supply system, and calculating the supply power amount based on the plan value data;
Based on the amount of power supplied by a generator that may fall out of the generator, means for correcting the calculated amount of supplied power;
Means for acquiring a past demand curve similar to a weather condition predicted on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone from the automatic power supply system, and storing the acquired demand demand curve;
Means for obtaining an adjustment value for each predetermined time with respect to the past demand curve, and correcting the stored predicted demand curve based on the adjustment value;
Means for calculating a power shortage based on the power supply amount and the predicted demand curve;
A power supply-demand balance check device comprising: The power supply and demand balance check device according to claim 7,
A past demand curve that is similar to the weather condition predicted from the automatic power supply system on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone and is within a predetermined period before and after the prediction target date or the date including the prediction target time zone , And storing as a forecast demand curve,
Means for calculating a power shortage based on the power supply amount and the predicted demand curve;
An electric power supply and demand balance check device further comprising: The power supply / demand balance check device according to claim 7 or 8,
Means for obtaining the residual electric energy converted from the pumpable power and the amount of water in the reservoir from the automatic power supply system;
Means for calculating a power shortage based on the supply power, the forecast demand curve, the upliftable power and the remaining power;
An electric power supply and demand balance check device further comprising: The power supply / demand balance check device according to claim 9,
As a result of calculating the power shortage amount, when it is determined that the power amount is short,
Means for setting a nationwide power receiving curve for the amount of power received from the Power System Utilization Council;
Means for correcting the amount of supplied power based on the national interchange power receiving curve;
Means for calculating a power shortage amount based on the corrected power supply amount, the predicted demand curve, the liftable power and the remaining power amount;
An electric power supply and demand balance check device further comprising: The power supply / demand balance check device according to claim 9 or 10,
Means for subtracting the supplied power amount from the predicted demand curve and storing the subtracted difference value as a first power amount deficient amount;
When the power shortage amount obtained by converting the difference value into power is larger than the liftable power, the stored first power shortage amount is changed to a power shortage amount with the liftable power as an upper limit. When,
When the first power shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power amount, the first power shortage amount is stored as a pumped-storage power consumption amount, and the first power amount is calculated from the power shortage amount based on the difference value. Storing a value obtained by subtracting the shortage amount as a second shortage amount of power that is actually insufficient;
When the first power shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, the remaining power amount is stored as a necessary amount of pumped-storage power generation, and a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the first power shortage amount Means for storing as the second power shortage amount;
An electric power supply and demand balance check device further comprising: A power supply / demand balance check device that is communicable with an automatic power supply system and that checks a power supply / demand balance in a prediction target day or a prediction target time zone,
Means for obtaining plan value data of the amount of power supplied by each generator from the automatic power supply system, and calculating the supply power amount based on the plan value data;
Means for acquiring a past demand curve similar to a weather condition predicted on the prediction target date or the prediction target time zone from the automatic power supply system, and storing the acquired demand demand curve;
Means for obtaining the residual electric energy converted from the pumpable power and the amount of water in the reservoir from the automatic power supply system;
Means for subtracting the supplied power amount from the predicted demand curve and storing the subtracted difference value as a first power amount deficient amount;
When the power shortage amount obtained by converting the difference value into power is larger than the liftable power, the stored first power shortage amount is changed to a power shortage amount with the liftable power as an upper limit. When,
When the first power shortage amount is equal to or less than the remaining power amount, the first power shortage amount is stored as a pumped-storage power consumption amount, and the first power amount is calculated from the power shortage amount based on the difference value. Storing a value obtained by subtracting the shortage amount as a second shortage amount of power that is actually insufficient;
When the first power shortage amount is larger than the remaining power amount, the remaining power amount is stored as a necessary amount of pumped-storage power generation, and a value obtained by subtracting the remaining power amount from the first power shortage amount Means for storing as the second power shortage amount;
A power supply-demand balance check device comprising: