JP5512483B2 - Evacuation route providing system and evacuation route providing method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an evacuation route providing system and an evacuation route providing method for providing evacuation route information.

  Conventionally, it has been considered to plan an evacuation route for a person who has difficulty in returning home due to a disaster or the like (hereinafter referred to as “person who has difficulty in returning home”). For this evacuation route, for example, a population is calculated based on a real number survey in front of a station or the like, and an evacuation route is planned based on the calculated population. However, since it is difficult to calculate the population by conducting a real number survey at all times, it is not possible to grasp the daily population transition or when the population is calculated by a real number survey, etc. There is a time difference (the calculated population data is old). Furthermore, the time resolution of the calculated population is rough. As a result, it was difficult to plan an evacuation route with high accuracy. Therefore, it is conceivable to grasp the population distribution based on the position information transmitted from the mobile device and generate an evacuation route. A device that generates an evacuation route in this way is described in Patent Document 1, for example.

JP 2003-44969 A

  However, Patent Document 1 describes that the population distribution status is simply grasped based on the location information of the mobile device and the evacuation route is generated, but only a rough value of the population distribution status is used. It is hard to say that an accurate evacuation route can be obtained.

  Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide an evacuation route providing system and an evacuation route providing method capable of generating an accurate evacuation route that matches reality.

  Therefore, the present invention provides population calculating means for calculating the population in a predetermined area based on the number of users of the mobile device, evacuation destination information storage means for storing the evacuation destination of the user of the mobile device as evacuation destination information, Based on the evacuation destination information of the user of the mobile device in the predetermined area stored in the information storage means and the population calculated by the population calculation means, the population for each evacuation destination evacuating from the predetermined area to the evacuation destination is calculated. Based on the temporary evacuation destination population calculation means to calculate, the disaster information acquisition means for acquiring disaster information, the disaster information acquired by the disaster information acquisition means, and the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information storage means A temporary evacuation route calculating means for calculating a temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination, a temporary evacuation route calculated by the temporary evacuation route calculating means, and an evacuation destination calculated by the temporary evacuation destination population calculating means The number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination is calculated based on the population and the number of passing people calculated by the number of passing people calculated by the passage number calculating unit. Generated by the evacuation route generation means, the evacuation route generation means for generating a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route calculated by the congestion situation calculation means, and the evacuation route generation means And an output means for outputting the evacuated route.

  The present invention also provides an evacuation route providing method in an evacuation route providing system comprising an evacuation destination information storage means for storing an evacuation destination of a user of a mobile device as evacuation destination information, wherein the population in a predetermined area is Based on the population calculation step calculated based on the number of users, the evacuation destination information of the user of the mobile device in the predetermined area stored in the evacuation destination information storage means, and the population calculated in the population calculation step, Temporary evacuation destination population calculation step for calculating the population of each evacuation destination evacuating from a predetermined area to the evacuation destination, disaster information acquisition step for acquiring disaster information, disaster information acquired in the disaster information acquisition step, and evacuation Based on the evacuation destination information stored in the destination information storage means, the provisional evacuation route calculation step for calculating the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination and the provisional evacuation route calculation step are performed. Based on the temporary evacuation route and the population for each evacuation destination calculated in the temporary evacuation destination population calculation step, the passing number calculation step for calculating the passing number of people in the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination, and the passing number calculation step Based on the calculated number of passing people, the congestion status calculation step for calculating the degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route, and the degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route calculated in the congestion state calculation step An evacuation route generation step for generating a new evacuation route and an output step for outputting the evacuation route generated in the evacuation route generation step are provided.

  In these inventions, evacuation to evacuate from a predetermined area to the evacuation destination based on the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information storage means and the population calculated by the population calculation means (population calculation step) The population for each destination is calculated. A temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination is calculated based on the disaster information and the evacuation destination information, and a temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination is calculated based on the calculated temporary evacuation route and the population for each evacuation destination. The number of people passing through is calculated. The degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route is calculated based on the calculated number of passing people, and a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination is generated based on the calculated degree of congestion. As described above, by generating the evacuation route using the information related to the user of the mobile device that actually exists in the predetermined area, it is possible to generate an evacuation route with high accuracy in accordance with the reality. Further, since the evacuation route is generated using the degree of congestion calculated according to the reality, the evacuation route information is highly accurate and has high utility value.

  The evacuation route generation means preferably further generates a new evacuation destination and a new evacuation route based on the degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route calculated by the congestion status calculation means. As a result, an evacuation route to a new evacuation destination is generated. Thus, since evacuation routes to a plurality of evacuation destinations are generated, the evacuation route information with high utility value is obtained.

  Further, the evacuation destination information storage means preferably stores information on the evacuation destination as the evacuation destination and information on the return destination of the user of the mobile device as the evacuation destination as the evacuation destination information. As a result, an evacuation route to the evacuation site and the return destination is generated, and a more suitable evacuation route can be provided.

  The information on the evacuation shelter stored in the evacuation destination information storage means includes information on the number of evacuation shelters. Based on the population evacuated to the refuge calculated by the temporary evacuation destination calculation means and the information on the number of evacuation shelters stored in the evacuation destination information storage means, Preferably, the degree of congestion is further calculated, and the evacuation route generation means further generates a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each refuge calculated by the congestion state calculation means. It is. Thereby, the evacuation route is generated in consideration of the degree of congestion of the evacuation center, and a more appropriate evacuation route can be obtained.

  Further, the evacuation route generated by the evacuation route generation means preferably includes a route to the evacuation destination that is shortest or reachable in the shortest time. Thereby, a more suitable evacuation route can be generated for those who have difficulty in returning home.

  The congestion status calculation means calculates the degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route for each predetermined time period, and the evacuation route generation means calculates the degree of congestion calculated for each predetermined time period by the congestion status calculation means. Based on this, it is preferable to generate a new evacuation route. Thereby, an evacuation route can be more accurately generated based on the degree of congestion that changes with the passage of time.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to generate an accurate evacuation route that is realistic.

It is a schematic block diagram of a mobile communication system. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of a mobile communication system. It is a figure which shows the relationship between BTS and a sector. It is a figure which shows the information which a population calculation part memorize | stores. It is a figure which shows the information which the population calculation part according to temporary evacuation destination memorize | stores. It is a figure which shows the population for every evacuation destination. It is a figure which shows the information which a temporary evacuation route calculation part memorize | stores. It is a figure which shows the evacuation path | route which a person with difficulty returning home passes, and the number of people who pass the said evacuation path. It is a figure which shows the structure from which the passing number of people in the predetermined road on an evacuation route changes. It is a figure which shows the information about the degree of congestion memorize | stored in a congestion condition calculation part. It is a figure which shows the degree of congestion of a road. It is a figure which shows the information about the degree of congestion of the shelter memorize | stored in a congestion condition calculation part. It is a figure which shows the evacuation route at the time of a person with difficulty returning home evacuating. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process at the time of producing | generating and outputting an evacuation route.

  A preferred embodiment of a mobile communication system to which an evacuation route providing system and an evacuation route providing method according to the present invention are applied will be described below with reference to the drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same elements are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant description is omitted.

  FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a mobile communication system. As shown in FIG. 1, the mobile communication system 10 includes a mobile device 100, a BTS (base station) 200, an RNC (radio network control device) 300, an exchange 400, and a management center 500. The management center 500 includes a social sensor unit 501, a petamining unit 502, a mobile demography unit 503, and a visualization solution unit 504.

  When the mobile station 100 makes a location registration request, communication connection, or the like via the BTS 200 and the RNC 300, the exchange 400 acquires the location information of the mobile station 100 (details will be described later). The exchange 400 stores the received position information, and outputs the collected position information to the management center 500 in response to a predetermined timing or a request from the management center 500. Here, in general, the RNC 300 is composed of about 1,000 pieces and is arranged throughout Japan. On the other hand, about 300 exchanges 400 are arranged in Japan.

  As described above, the management center 500 includes the social sensor unit 501, the petamining unit 502, the mobile demography unit 503, and the visualization solution unit 504. Each unit uses the distribution information of the mobile device 100. Perform statistical processing.

  The social sensor unit 501 is a server device that collects data including location information of the mobile device 100 from each exchange 400. The social sensor unit 501 is configured to receive data periodically output from the exchange 400 or to acquire data from the exchange 400 according to a predetermined timing in the social sensor unit 501.

  The petamining unit 502 is a server device that converts data received from the social sensor unit 501 into a predetermined data format. For example, the petamining unit 502 performs a sorting process using a user ID as a key, or performs a sorting process for each area to which data belongs.

  The mobile demography unit 503 is a server device that performs aggregation processing on the data processed in the petamining unit 502, that is, count processing for each item. For example, the mobile demography unit 503 can count the number of users of the mobile device 100 residing in a certain area, and can total the area distribution.

  The visualization solution unit 504 is a server device that processes the data aggregated in the mobile demography unit 503 so as to be visible. For example, the visualization solution unit 504 can map the aggregated data on a map. Data processed by the visualization solution unit 504 is provided to companies, government offices or individuals, and is used for store development, road traffic surveys, disaster countermeasures, environmental countermeasures, and the like. It should be noted that the information statistically processed in this way is processed so that individuals are not specified so as not to infringe privacy.

  The social sensor unit 501, petamining unit 502, mobile demography unit 503, and visualization solution unit 504 are all configured by the server device as described above, and although not shown, the basic configuration of a normal information processing device That is, it is needless to say that an input device such as a CPU, a RAM, a ROM, a keyboard and a mouse, a communication device that communicates with the outside, a storage device that stores information, an output device such as a display and a printer, and the like.

  Next, the functional block configuration of the mobile communication system 10 will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the mobile communication system 10. As shown in FIG. 2, the mobile communication system 10 includes a mobile device 100, a BTS 200, an RNC 300, an exchange 400, and an information analysis device 600. Note that the information analysis apparatus 600 of the present embodiment includes all of the constituent units (the social sensor unit 501, the petamining unit 502, the mobile demography unit 503, and the visualization solution unit 504) of the management center 500 shown in FIG. Realized by some. That is, the functional blocks of the information analysis apparatus 600 shown in FIG. 2 are distributed and arranged in each constituent unit constituting the management center 500, and one information analysis apparatus 600 is constituted by each constituent unit. Note that the information analysis apparatus 600 may be configured by one configuration unit.

  The mobile device 100 includes a location registration unit 101. The location registration unit 101 outputs a location registration signal for making a location registration request. The location registration signal is output every 54 minutes, for example.

  The BTS 200 performs wireless communication with the mobile device 100. A sector that is a communication area is formed by the BTS 200. In this sector, a plurality of mobile devices 100 are present. Here, FIG. 3 shows the relationship between the BTS 200 and sectors. As shown in FIG. 3, the BTS 200 is located at the center of the area indicated by the circle, and a plurality of equally divided parts are the sectors. For example, in FIG. 3, the communication area of the BTS 200 is composed of a maximum of 6 sectors, and the RNC 300 can grasp in which sector the mobile device 100 is located.

  The RNC 300 includes a communication control unit 301 and a sector identification unit 302. The communication control unit 301 is a part that performs communication connection with the mobile device 100 via the BTS 200. For example, communication connection processing based on outgoing call processing or incoming call processing from the mobile device 100, and communication connection based on a location registration request This is the part that performs processing. The sector identification unit 302 identifies the sector in which the mobile device 100 is located when the mobile device 100 outputs a location registration signal for location registration, and outputs the identification result to the exchange 400 through the communication control unit 301.

  The exchange 400 includes a communication control unit 401 and a location information management unit 402. Similar to the communication control unit 301 of the RNC 300, the communication control unit 401 is a part that performs communication connection processing. The location information management unit 402 includes a sector (sector identifier) identified by the sector identification unit 302 when the mobile device 100 performs location registration, a user identifier for identifying the mobile device 100, and the mobile device 100 The location registration time is associated with each other, and the association result is stored as location registration information. The location information management unit 402 outputs the stored location registration information to the information analysis device 600 at a predetermined timing or in response to a request from the information analysis device 600.

  The information analysis apparatus 600 includes an evacuation destination information database (evacuation destination information storage unit) 601, a population calculation unit (population calculation unit) 602, a temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit (temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit) 603, Disaster status monitoring unit (disaster information acquisition unit) 604, road information database 605, provisional evacuation route calculation unit (temporary evacuation route calculation unit, passing number calculation unit) 606, congestion status calculation unit (congestion status calculation unit) 607 And an evacuation route generation unit (evacuation route generation means) 608 and an output unit (output means) 609.

  The evacuation destination information database 601 stores the evacuation destination of the user of the mobile device 100 as evacuation destination information. Specifically, the information on the evacuation destination as the evacuation destination and the information on the return destination of the user of the mobile device 100 as the evacuation destination are stored as the evacuation destination information. The shelter information includes location information of the shelter and information on the number of people that can be accommodated in the shelter. Further, the return destination of the user of the mobile device 100 is the address of the user of the mobile device 100 in the present embodiment.

  The population calculation unit 602 calculates the population in the predetermined area based on the number of users of the mobile device 100. Specifically, the population calculation unit 602 calculates the number of users in a predetermined time zone for each sector based on the location registration information output from the location information management unit 402 of the exchange 400. Then, the population for each sector is calculated from the number of users for each sector using the contract rate of the mobile device 100 with respect to the total population. Then, the population in the predetermined area is calculated from the population for each sector. In the present embodiment, for example, a predetermined area is composed of a plurality of sectors, and it is determined to which predetermined area the sector belongs by a correspondence table or the like. The predetermined area is formed by polygons. As shown in FIG. 4, the population calculation unit 602 stores an area identifier (0000A, 0000B...) Of a predetermined area for which the population is to be calculated and the calculated population (100,000, 30,000,...) In association with each other. To do. The population in the predetermined area is the population of people who have difficulty returning home when a disaster occurs.

  The temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 evacuates from the predetermined area to the evacuation destination based on the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information database 601 and the population in the predetermined area calculated by the population calculation unit 602. Calculate the population for each evacuation destination.

  Specifically, first, the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 evacuates when the user of the mobile device 100 in the predetermined area evacuates based on the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information database 601. Calculate the number of (evacuation shelter, address) and the number of users for each evacuation destination. Here, a virtual model in the case where the user of the mobile device 100 in a predetermined area evacuates to a shelter in the vicinity of the predetermined area (for example, 1 km) instead of the user's address will be described. When the address of the user of the mobile device 100 is less than 10 km from the predetermined area, the user is evacuated to the address without going to the evacuation center. If the address of the user of the mobile device 100 is 10 km or more and less than 11 km from the predetermined area, the user evacuates to a shelter near the predetermined area without going from the predetermined area to the user's address at a rate of 10%. Suppose there is a user. Thereafter, it is assumed that the number of users who evacuate to a shelter increases at a rate of 10% every time the address of the user of the mobile device 100 is 1 km away from the predetermined area. The numerical values (10 km, 10%, etc.) used in the description of the virtual model are examples, and appropriate values can be used. The temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 calculates the evacuation destination of the user of the mobile device 100 and the number of users for each evacuation destination using such a virtual model.

  The provisional evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 acquires the population of the predetermined area stored in the population calculation unit 602, and calculates the acquired population, the evacuation destination of the user of the mobile device 100, and the number of users for each evacuation destination. Based on the above, the population for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home within a predetermined area is calculated. For example, by using the ratio between the total number of users of the mobile device 100 in the predetermined area and the number of users for each evacuation destination, the population in the predetermined area can be used for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home in the predetermined area. Population can be calculated. As shown in FIG. 5, the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 includes an area identifier (0000A...) Of a predetermined area to be calculated and the calculated population for each evacuation destination (evacuation shelter H: 10,000 people, within 23 wards). : 30,000, outside 23 wards: 10,000, etc.) are stored in association with each other.

  Here, a specific example of the population for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home within a predetermined area calculated by the temporary evacuation destination population calculation unit 603 will be described. FIG. 6 is a diagram schematically illustrating a predetermined area and an evacuation destination. In FIG. 6, the population for each evacuation destination written in a balloon is the same as that shown in FIG. FIG. 6 shows a case where the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 calculates the population for each evacuation destination for those who have difficulty returning home in the area in front of Shibuya Station (area identifier: 0000A). The temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 acquires the population of people who have difficulty returning home from the population calculation unit 602 with the area identifier “0000A”. Here, it is assumed that the population of people who have difficulty in returning in the area identifier “0000A” is 100,000. Then, as shown in FIG. 6, the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 calculates the total number of users of the mobile device 100 having the area identifier in “0000A”, for example, for the 100,000 people as described above. By using the ratio with the number of users for each evacuation destination, the population of people who have difficulty returning home for each evacuation destination is calculated. Here, 10,000 people who have difficulty returning home to the evacuation center H near the area in front of Shibuya-ku station, 30,000 people who have difficulty returning home within the 23 wards address, and outside the 23 wards address 10,000 people who have difficulty evacuating to home, 30,000 people who have difficulty evacuating to Kanagawa prefecture, the address, 10,000 people who have difficulty evacuating to Chiba prefecture, the address, Saitama Assume that 10,000 people have difficulty evacuating to the prefecture.

  The disaster situation monitoring unit 604 collects disaster information when a disaster occurs. As this disaster information, for example, there is road regulation information (closed information) announced by local governments. The disaster situation monitoring unit 604 outputs the collected disaster information to the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606. It should be noted that this system can also be applied to a simulation when a disaster occurs, and in this case, temporary disaster occurrence data can be input to the disaster situation monitoring unit 604.

  The road information database 605 stores in advance information such as road capacity and road capacity (number of people allowed to pass) obtained from the road width and the like.

  First, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 is based on the disaster information acquired from the disaster situation monitoring unit 604, the road information stored in the road information database 605, and the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information database 601. To calculate the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination. Specifically, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 avoids an area where road regulation (blocking) is performed (hereinafter referred to as a road regulation area) based on road regulation information included in the disaster information. The route is calculated as a temporary evacuation route.

  Next, the provisional evacuation route calculation unit 606 performs provisional evacuation to the evacuation destination based on the calculated provisional evacuation route and the population for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home, which is stored in the provisional evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603. Calculate the number of people passing through the route. After calculating the number of passing people, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606, as shown in FIG. 7, calculates the provisional evacuation route identifier (S1, S2, T1,...) Of the provisional evacuation route and the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route (0 ., 50,000, 50,000, 20,000, etc.) are stored in association with each other.

  Here, a specific example of the temporary evacuation route calculated by the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 and the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route will be described. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a provisional evacuation route through which people who have difficulty returning home in the area in front of Shibuya station and the number of people passing through the provisional evacuation route. As shown in FIG. 8, when calculating the provisional evacuation route from the area in front of Shibuya Station (area identifier: 0000A) to Saitama Prefecture, which is the address location, the provisional evacuation route calculation unit 606 uses road regulation areas X1 and X2. The avoided temporary evacuation routes S1 and S2 are calculated, and the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation routes S1 and S2 is calculated (here, the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation routes S1 and S2 is calculated as 50,000 each. ). The calculation of the population for each provisional evacuation route is performed based on, for example, in which area of the evacuation destination (here, the address area in Saitama Prefecture) many people evacuate (return home).

  Similarly, the provisional evacuation route calculation unit 606 calculates a provisional evacuation route T1 that avoids the road regulation area X2 as a provisional evacuation route outside the 23 wards, which is the address, and determines the number of persons passing through the provisional evacuation route T1. Calculated as 10,000 people. Further, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 calculates temporary evacuation routes K1 and K2 as temporary evacuation routes to Kanagawa Prefecture, which is the address, and the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route K1 is 10,000, and the provisional evacuation route K2 The number of people passing through is calculated as 20,000 people. Further, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 calculates a temporary evacuation route C1 that avoids the road regulation area X3 as a temporary evacuation route to Chiba Prefecture, which is the address, and the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route C1 is 10,000. Calculate as The temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 calculates the temporary evacuation route H1 to the evacuation site H, and calculates the number of people passing through the temporary evacuation route H1 as 10,000.

  Based on the number of people passing the temporary evacuation route calculated by the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 and the capacity information of the road stored in the road information database 605, the congestion state calculation unit 607 Calculate the degree of congestion for each road. The degree of congestion is calculated for each predetermined time period (in this embodiment, the predetermined time period is set to, for example, 1 hour). Specifically, the congestion state calculation unit 607 is within one hour from the time when the disaster occurred (or the time assumed to have occurred) for a predetermined road on the provisional evacuation route, between 1 hour and 2 hours, The degree of congestion on the road is calculated every hour, such as between 2 hours and 3 hours.

  Here, how the number of people passing through the road changes every predetermined time period will be described. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a change in the number of passing people on a predetermined road on the temporary evacuation route. In addition, as shown in FIG. 9, area A, area B, and area C exist on the temporary evacuation route K, and 10,000 people from area A evacuate to Kanagawa Prefecture where the address is located, and 20,000 people from area B. Is evacuated to Kanagawa Prefecture, where the address is located, and 55,000 people from Area C evacuate to Kanagawa Prefecture, where the address is located. In this case, on the road d on the temporary evacuation route K, first, 10,000 people who are unable to return home in area A pass, then 20,000 people who are difficult to return home in area B pass, , 55,000 people who are difficult to go home in area C pass. The timing at which the person who has difficulty in returning in each area passes through the road d can be calculated based on the time required for the person who has difficulty in returning home to walk from each area to the road d. In addition to this, for example, in an evacuation plan planned by a local government or the like, if different times are set for each area as the timing to start evacuation after a disaster occurs, the roads are passed in consideration of this time difference. The number of people can also be calculated.

  Then, the congestion state calculation unit 607 calculates the degree of congestion for each predetermined time zone and each road based on the capacity of the road and the number of people passing through the road. In addition, as shown in FIG. 10, the congestion status calculation unit 607 includes a road identifier (0000X...), Time zone information (within 1 hour, 1 to 2 hours...), And a calculated degree of congestion (small, large). ...) are stored in association with each other.

  Here, a specific example of the degree of congestion calculated by the congestion status calculation unit 607 will be described. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the degree of congestion on Aoyama Street. As shown in FIG. 11, for example, regarding the Aoyama Street with a road identifier of 0000X, the congestion state calculation unit 607 determines that the number of people passing within 1 hour from the time when the disaster occurred is 10,000 people, between 1 hour and 2 hours. The number of people who pass in the meantime is calculated as 30,000, and the number of people who pass between 2 hours and 3 hours is 20,000. Then, the congestion status calculation unit 607 calculates the degree of congestion when the calculated population passes based on the information on the capacity of the road for Aoyama Street acquired from the road information database 605.

  Here, the comparison of the number of people passing through Aoyama Street capacity (first threshold, second threshold (where 1st threshold <second threshold)) and the number of people passing through Aoyama Street To calculate the degree of congestion. When 10,000 people pass through Aoyama Street, the relationship “number of people passing (10,000 people) <first threshold value” is established, and the degree of congestion is calculated as “degree of congestion: small”. Further, when 20,000 people pass Aoyama Street, the relationship of “first threshold value <passing number of people (20,000 people) <second threshold value” is satisfied, and the degree of congestion is set as “degree of congestion: medium”. calculate. Further, when 30,000 people pass Aoyama Street, the relationship of “second threshold <number of people passing through (30,000 people)” is established, and the degree of congestion is calculated as “degree of congestion: large”.

  In addition, the congestion status calculation unit 607 determines the number of shelters for each shelter based on the population evacuated to the shelter calculated by the provisional evacuation route calculation unit 606 and the information on the number of shelters stored in the evacuation destination information database 601. The degree of congestion is calculated. The degree of congestion in the evacuation center can be calculated based on, for example, the number of people who have difficulty returning home to evacuate to the evacuation center with respect to the number of evacuation shelters. For example, when the number of people who evacuate to the evacuation shelter is smaller than the number of evacuation shelters, the degree of congestion is calculated to be small. Further, for example, when the number of people evacuating to the evacuation shelter is larger than the number of evacuation shelters, the degree of congestion is calculated to be large. As shown in FIG. 12, the congestion state calculation unit 607 calculates the degree of congestion for each evacuation center by using the evacuation shelter identifiers (H0001, H0002...) And the degree of congestion (large, small...). Store in association with each other.

  The evacuation route generation unit 608 stores information on the degree of congestion on the road on the temporary evacuation route (see FIG. 10) and information on the degree of congestion for each evacuation site stored in the congestion state calculation unit 607 (see FIG. 12). And get. The evacuation route generation unit 608 creates a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination (evacuation site, address location) stored in the evacuation destination information database 601 based on the acquired degree of congestion on the road and the degree of congestion on the evacuation site. Generate. The evacuation route generation unit 608 sets at least two of the evacuation center and the address place as evacuation destinations, and generates an evacuation route to the set evacuation destination.

  Specifically, first, the evacuation route generation unit 608 takes evacuation from the current position (the current position of the person who has difficulty returning home to generate the evacuation route) to the evacuation destination in consideration of the degree of congestion on the road. Generate a route. Here, since the degree of road congestion changes from time to time, the evacuation route generation unit 608 avoids roads with a high degree of congestion in a time zone in which a person who has difficulty returning home passes. Is generated.

  Next, the evacuation route generation unit 608 evaluates whether or not the generated evacuation route is an effective evacuation route. An effective evacuation route is, for example, a route from which the distance to the evacuation destination (evacuation center, address) is extremely far away (circumferential route) or a route that requires an extremely long time. Furthermore, the evacuation route generation unit 608 takes into consideration the degree of congestion of the evacuation destination for the evacuation route whose evacuation destination is an evacuation destination, for example, an evacuation route in which an evacuation place with a high degree of congestion is the evacuation destination Is evaluated as not valid.

  The evacuation route generation unit 608 generates a predetermined number or more (for example, three) of effective evacuation routes. In this manner, the evacuation route generation unit 608 calculates the evacuation route to the evacuation destination that is the shortest or shortest in reach. Further, the evacuation route generation unit 608 calculates an evacuation route to an evacuation site with a low degree of congestion for an evacuation route whose evacuation destination is an evacuation site. The evacuation route generation unit 608 outputs the generated evacuation route to the output unit 609.

  Here, a specific example of the evacuation route generated by the evacuation route generation unit 608 will be described. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an evacuation route when a person who has difficulty returning home in front of Shibuya Station evacuates. Here, a case will be described in which the address is in the direction of Kanagawa Prefecture, and an evacuation route is generated when a person who has difficulty returning home in the area in front of Shibuya Station (area identifier: 0000A) evacuates.

  As illustrated in FIG. 13, the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates a route to enter Kanagawa Prefecture via the evacuation route K1 as a recommended effective evacuation route in consideration of the degree of road congestion. Distance: 14 km and an estimated required time of 2:00 are calculated. In addition, the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates a route for evacuating to the evacuation site H via the evacuation route H1 as another effective evacuation route recommended, and the expected distance is 1 km. Time 0:35 is calculated. In addition, the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates a route to enter Kanagawa Prefecture via the evacuation route K3 as another effective evacuation route recommended, and the distance at that time: 10 km and the expected required time 4 : 00 is calculated. In the example shown in FIG. 13, of the evacuation routes H1, K1, and K3, the evacuation routes H1 and K1 are the same as the temporary evacuation routes H1 and K1 calculated by the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 (see FIG. 8). There is a case where the evacuation route K3 is newly calculated.

  The output unit 609 outputs the evacuation route generated by the evacuation route generation unit 608. The output here is, for example, displaying an evacuation route when a person who is difficult to return home evacuating in a predetermined direction evacuates in a specified predetermined area on the display provided in the management center 500 or the like. An evacuation route is provided through the mobile device 100 or the like to those who have difficulty returning home in the area.

  Next, the flow of processing when the information analysis apparatus 600 generates and outputs an evacuation route will be described. FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing a flow of processing when generating and outputting an evacuation route. First, the population calculation unit 602 calculates the population of people who have difficulty returning home for each predetermined area using the location registration information of the mobile device 100 (step S101: population calculation step). Next, the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 selects a predetermined area for calculating the population for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home (step S102), and for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home, for the selected predetermined area. Is calculated (step S103: provisional evacuation destination population calculation step).

  Next, the temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 acquires disaster information, and calculates a temporary evacuation route based on the acquired disaster information and evacuation destination information (step S104: disaster information acquisition step, provisional evacuation route calculation step). . The temporary evacuation route calculation unit 606 calculates the number of passing people on the road on the temporary evacuation route based on the calculated temporary evacuation route and the population for each evacuation destination of those who have difficulty returning home (step S105: calculation of the number of passing people). Step). Next, the congestion state calculation unit 607 calculates the degree of congestion for each road on the provisional evacuation route and the degree of congestion for each evacuation center based on the capacity information of the road (step S106: congestion state calculation). Step).

  Next, the temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculation unit 603 determines whether there is a predetermined area where the population for each evacuation destination is not calculated (step S107). Here, it is determined whether or not there is a predetermined area in which a population for each evacuation destination is not calculated in a predetermined area including a plurality of predetermined areas (for example, the Kanto area). When there is a predetermined area for which the population for each evacuation destination is not calculated (step S107: YES), the above-described processing (steps S102 to S107) is performed until there is no predetermined area for which the population for each evacuation destination is not calculated. repeat.

  On the other hand, when there is no predetermined area where the population for each evacuation destination is not calculated (step S107: NO), the evacuation route generation unit 608 determines the evacuation route for the person who has difficulty in returning home based on the degree of congestion on the road. Is generated (step S108: evacuation route generation step). Then, the evacuation route generation unit 608 evaluates whether or not the generated evacuation route is an effective evacuation route (step S109).

  The evacuation route generation unit 608 determines whether or not a predetermined number or more of effective evacuation routes have been generated (step S110). When the predetermined number or more of evacuation routes have not been generated (step S110: NO), The above processing (steps S108 to S110) is repeated until a predetermined number or more of effective evacuation routes are generated.

  On the other hand, when a predetermined number or more of effective evacuation routes have been generated (step S110: YES), the output unit 609 selects a plurality of evacuation routes generated by the evacuation route generation unit 608 for those who have difficulty returning home. As an evacuation route (step S111: output step).

  Next, the effect of the mobile communication system 10 according to the present embodiment will be described. According to the mobile communication system 10, the population for each evacuation destination evacuated from a predetermined area to the evacuation destination based on the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information database 601 and the population calculated by the population calculation unit 602. Is calculated. A temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination is calculated based on the disaster information and the evacuation destination information, and a temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination is calculated based on the calculated temporary evacuation route and the population for each evacuation destination. The number of people passing through is calculated. The degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route is calculated based on the calculated number of passing people, and a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination is generated based on the calculated degree of congestion. As described above, by generating the evacuation route by using the information related to the user of the mobile device 100 that actually exists in the predetermined area, it is possible to generate an evacuation route with high accuracy in accordance with reality. Further, since the evacuation route is generated using the degree of congestion calculated according to the reality, the evacuation route information is highly accurate and has high utility value.

  In addition, since the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates evacuation routes to a plurality of evacuation destinations, the evacuation route information has high utility value.

  Further, since the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates an evacuation route to the evacuation center and the return home, a more suitable evacuation route can be provided.

  In addition, since the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates an evacuation route in consideration of the degree of congestion at the evacuation center, a more appropriate evacuation route can be obtained.

  Further, the evacuation route generation unit 608 generates an evacuation route including a route to the evacuation site or home that can be reached in the shortest distance or in the shortest time. Thereby, a more appropriate evacuation route can be generated.

  In addition, the congestion status calculation unit 607 calculates the degree of road congestion every predetermined time, so that the evacuation route can be generated more accurately based on the degree of road congestion that changes with the passage of time.

  As mentioned above, although preferred embodiment of this invention was described, this invention is not limited to this. For example, the population calculation unit 602 calculates the number of users of the mobile device 100 in a predetermined area based on the location registration information of the mobile device 100. However, the mobile device 100 obtains location information through GPS (Global Positioning System). If it can be acquired, the population in the predetermined area can be calculated using the position information acquired through GPS.

  In addition, although the case where road regulation information is used as disaster information has been described as an example, other information such as fire information may be used. In this case, evacuation is performed by avoiding the fire occurrence area. A route may be generated.

  In addition, when outputting the evacuation route to the evacuation center, information on what kind of person who has difficulty returning home may be added to the evacuation center. For example, when the evacuation center is a hospital, it is considered that the evacuation center is easy for children to use. In this case, information indicating that the evacuation route is easy for children can be added to the evacuation route information. Good. Also, for example, if the evacuation center is a university, it is considered that the university is easy to use for foreigners because there are many people who can speak foreign languages. Information that it is easy to use for foreigners may be added to.

  In addition, when the evacuation route generation unit 608 evaluates the evacuation route, the evacuation route with a large number of return home support facilities (for example, a place having a facility that is supposed to drop in on the way home of a person who has difficulty returning home in a convenience store or the like) Can be evaluated as a more effective evacuation route.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Mobile communication system, 100 ... Mobile equipment, 601 ... Evacuation destination information database, 602 ... Population calculation part, 603 ... Temporary evacuation destination population calculation part, 604 ... Disaster situation monitoring part, 606 ... Temporary evacuation route calculation part, 607 ... congestion status calculation unit, 608 ... evacuation route generation unit, 609 ... output unit.

Claims (7)

Population calculating means for calculating the population in the predetermined area based on the number of users of the mobile device;
Evacuation destination information storage means for storing the evacuation destination of the user of the mobile device as evacuation destination information;
Based on the evacuation destination information of the user of the mobile device in the predetermined area stored in the evacuation destination information storage means and the population calculated by the population calculation means, the evacuation destination from within the predetermined area Tentative evacuation destination population calculation means for calculating the population of each evacuation destination to evacuate to,
Disaster information acquisition means for acquiring disaster information;
Temporary evacuation route calculation means for calculating a temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the disaster information acquired by the disaster information acquisition means and the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information storage means; ,
Passing through the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the temporary evacuation route calculated by the temporary evacuation route calculation means and the population for each evacuation destination calculated by the temporary evacuation destination population calculation means. A passing number calculating means for calculating the number of persons;
Based on the number of passing people calculated by the passing number calculating means, a congestion situation calculating means for calculating the degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route;
An evacuation route generation means for generating a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route calculated by the congestion status calculation means;
Output means for outputting the evacuation route generated by the evacuation route generation means;
An evacuation route providing system characterized by comprising:   The evacuation route generation means further generates a new evacuation destination and an evacuation route to the new evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route calculated by the congestion status calculation means. The evacuation route providing system according to claim 1.   The evacuation destination information storage means stores, as the evacuation destination information, information on an evacuation destination serving as the evacuation destination and information on a return home of a user of the mobile device serving as the evacuation destination. Item 3. The evacuation route providing system according to Item 1 or 2. The information of the refuge stored in the evacuation destination information storage means includes information on the number of persons accommodated in the refuge,
The temporary evacuation destination-specific population calculating means calculates a population evacuating to the refuge stored in the evacuation destination information storage means,
The congestion status calculation means is configured to evacuate the evacuation based on the population evacuated to the evacuation site calculated by the temporary evacuation destination calculation means and the information on the number of evacuation shelters stored in the evacuation destination information storage means. Further calculate the degree of congestion for each location,
The evacuation route generation means further generates a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each evacuation site calculated by the congestion status calculation means.
The evacuation route providing system according to claim 3.   5. The evacuation route generated by the evacuation route generation unit includes a route to the evacuation destination that is shortest or reachable in the shortest time. The evacuation route provision system described. The congestion status calculation means calculates a degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route for each predetermined time period,
The evacuation route generation unit generates a new evacuation route based on the degree of congestion calculated for each predetermined time period by the congestion state calculation unit.
An evacuation route providing system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, An evacuation route providing method in an evacuation route providing system comprising an evacuation destination information storage means for storing evacuation destination information of a user of a mobile device as evacuation destination information,
A population calculating step of calculating a population in a predetermined area based on the number of users of the mobile device;
Based on the evacuation destination information of the user of the mobile device in the predetermined area and the population calculated in the population calculation step stored in the evacuation destination information storage means, the evacuation destination from within the predetermined area A temporary evacuation destination population calculation step for calculating a population for each evacuation destination evacuated to,
Disaster information acquisition step for acquiring disaster information;
A temporary evacuation route calculating step for calculating a temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the disaster information acquired in the disaster information acquisition step and the evacuation destination information stored in the evacuation destination information storage means; ,
Passing in the temporary evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the temporary evacuation route calculated in the temporary evacuation route calculation step and the population for each evacuation destination calculated in the population calculation step for each temporary evacuation destination A passing number calculation step for calculating the number of people,
Based on the passing number calculated in the passing number calculating step, a congestion state calculating step for calculating a degree of congestion for each temporary evacuation route;
An evacuation route generation step for generating a new evacuation route to the evacuation destination based on the degree of congestion for each provisional evacuation route calculated in the congestion state calculation step;
An output step of outputting the evacuation route generated in the evacuation route generation step;
An evacuation route providing method comprising:

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