JP5387877B2 - Method for estimating the remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a method for estimating the remaining life of an oil-filled electrical device such as an oil-filled transformer based on the deterioration state of insulating paper.

In general, materials used in oil-filled electrical equipment include conductive materials such as copper and aluminum, insulating materials such as insulating oil and paper, pressboard, iron core materials of silicon steel strip, iron and stainless steel, etc. There are structural materials.
Among these materials, it is insulation materials such as insulating oil and insulating paper that are subject to deterioration over time in electrical equipment. For insulating oil, oil deterioration prevention devices (open type, air-sealed type, nitrogen-sealed type) Etc.), the deterioration is very slow and the breakdown voltage, which is an important characteristic, is small.
On the other hand, for insulating paper, the degree of decrease in dielectric breakdown voltage due to aging is small, but the degree of mechanical strength is large (that is, the paper is raged). As the mechanical strength of the insulating paper is lowered, the insulating paper is cracked or broken due to mechanical stress caused by an inrush current or an electromagnetic force generated at the time of an external short circuit, and the risk of causing dielectric breakdown increases.

  Therefore, the life of the oil-filled electrical device is strongly influenced by the mechanical strength of the insulating paper, particularly the degree of deterioration of the winding conductor insulating paper. That is, it may be considered that the remaining life of the oil-filled electrical device is determined by the dielectric breakdown of the winding conductor insulating paper, that is, the deterioration state of the insulating paper.

  Insulating paper is a polymer made by polymerizing a large number of cellulose molecules, and the number of basic molecules constituting cellulose is called the degree of polymerization. The average degree of polymerization in the case of new kraft paper is about 1000, and this average degree of polymerization is lowered by breaking the chain of cellulose molecules due to deterioration of the insulating paper. For example, in an oil-filled transformer used for 30 years, the average degree of polymerization is said to decrease to about 40 to 60% of the initial degree (average degree of polymerization of 400 to 600).

  In addition, in the Japan Electrical Manufacturers' Association standard JEM1463-1993, the evaluation standard of the average degree of polymerization of insulating paper (coil insulating paper) of oil-filled transformers and oil-filled reactors exceeding 1000 [kVA] is as shown in Table 1 below. It has established. In general, according to this standard, the time when the average degree of polymerization is supposed to be 450 is defined as the life of the oil-filled transformer.

However, it is not easy to extract insulating paper from an oil-filled transformer in operation, and it is generally difficult to measure the average degree of polymerization and tensile strength of insulating paper.
In view of the above points, CO ₂ + CO as a product of the decomposition process having a correlation with the average degree of polymerization of the insulator (press board, lead insulating paper, etc.) that can be collected inside the transformer and the average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper The amount and the amount of furfural (a kind of aldehyde produced in the process of cellulose decomposition) are measured, and deterioration diagnosis and remaining life estimation are performed using these insulating paper deterioration indicators (for example, IEEJ Technical Report No. 922). No. “Current Status and Trends in Transformer Transformer Reliability Maintenance Technology” and Electric Joint Research Vol. 54, No. 5 (Part 1)).

In the method of measuring the amount of CO ₂ + CO (hereinafter simply referred to as “CO ₂ + CO method”), gas analysis in oil is performed, and the average degree of polymerization is estimated from the amount of CO ₂ + CO that is the final degradation product of insulating paper. Perform deterioration diagnosis. An oil-immersed transformer deterioration / remaining life diagnosis system using this CO ₂ + CO method is described in Patent Document 1, for example.
On the other hand, in the method of estimating the average degree of polymerization by measuring the amount of furfural (hereinafter simply referred to as the furfural method), 85% of the furfural remains in the oil and diffuses into the gas even if the insulating oil is degassed. In addition, since the adsorption rate to the insulating paper does not depend on the temperature and is constant at about 85%, it is said that highly accurate diagnosis is possible as compared with the above-described CO ₂ + CO method. A degradation diagnosis method for oil-filled electrical equipment using this furfural method (or CO ₂ + CO method) is described in Patent Document 2, for example.

However, in both the CO ₂ + CO method and the furfural method, the estimated average degree of polymerization has a wide range. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, the average residual degree of polymerization has a width of about 20% with respect to the measured amount of furfural of the oil-filled electrical equipment, which corresponds to several decades when converted to the remaining life of the electrical equipment. It is an error of the grade to do.
The occurrence of the error is considered to be because the amount of furfural and the average degree of polymerization are also affected by differences in the operating state and design specifications of the oil-filled electrical device.

As described above, both the CO ₂ + CO method and the furfural method have room for improvement in terms of accuracy in diagnosing deterioration and remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment. This is because these methods basically perform deterioration diagnosis using a single index that represents the deterioration of the insulation paper, and are not a method that makes a comprehensive decision based on operating conditions, design specifications, etc. Due to

On the other hand, Patent Document 3 discloses a deterioration diagnosis method for oil-filled electrical equipment that estimates an average degree of polymerization of insulating paper using a plurality of insulating paper deterioration indexes in insulating oil.
In this prior art, all measured values of furfural amount, CO ₂ amount, CO amount, moisture amount, oxygen amount, hydrogen amount in insulating oil, operation history of oil-filled electrical equipment, maintenance history, and design specifications are all included. Alternatively, a plurality of average polymerization degree estimation models are constructed by identifying or learning a model such as a neural network by using some combinations as input factor groups and using the average polymerization degree of insulating paper as an output factor. The average degree of polymerization of insulating paper is estimated by processing multiple average degree of polymerization estimates obtained by inputting each to each estimation model, and highly accurate deterioration without stopping the operation of oil-filled electrical equipment Diagnosis is possible.

Japanese Patent Laying-Open No. 2004-55858 (paragraphs [0017] to [0019], FIG. 1, FIG. 3, etc.) Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 7-272939 (paragraphs [0037] to [0042], FIG. 3, FIG. 4 etc.) Japanese Patent Laying-Open No. 2006-308515 (paragraphs [0031] to [0043], FIG. 1, FIG. 5, etc.)

However, the conventional technique according to Patent Document 3 estimates the average degree of polymerization at the present time using various deterioration indexes in the insulating oil at the present time (data measurement time) and the operating environment (load factor, operation years, etc.), It is a method of diagnosing on the assumption that the driving environment of the vehicle will remain unchanged in the future.
For this reason, when the operating environment changes due to the addition of load equipment, changes in system configuration, or the passage of time, there is a problem that it is difficult to perform highly accurate deterioration diagnosis and remaining life estimation of oil-filled electrical equipment. It was.
Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is to estimate the insulation paper deterioration index in consideration of future changes in the operating environment, and to use the estimated average polymerization degree based on this to increase the remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment with high accuracy. An object of the present invention is to provide a remaining life estimation method that can be estimated.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the invention according to claim 1 estimates the average degree of polymerization of insulating paper of oil-filled electrical equipment using the amount of deterioration index component contained in the insulating oil of oil-filled electrical equipment, and this average polymerization. In the method of estimating the remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment using the degree estimate,
A first step of creating an average polymerization degree estimation model that inputs at least the deterioration index component amount and the operating environment of the electric equipment, the operating environment such as the load factor, and outputs the average polymerization degree estimation value as actual data;
A second step of creating an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model that outputs at least the operating environment as output data and outputs the deterioration index component amount;
A third step of inputting the measurement data of the same type as the input data used for constructing the average polymerization degree estimation model to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and estimating a current average polymerization degree;
Estimate the amount of degradation index components in the expected operating environment by inputting the predicted future operating environment data of the same type as the input data used to construct the insulating paper degradation index estimation model into the insulating paper degradation index estimation model. And a fourth step
The current operating environment data of the same type as the input data used for the construction of the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is input to the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model to estimate the current deterioration index component amount. A fifth step of correcting the deterioration index component amount estimated in the fourth step using a correction value obtained from the actual measurement value of the deterioration index component amount in
A sixth step of estimating an average degree of polymerization in a driving environment assumed in the future using the average degree of polymerization estimation model using the deterioration index component amount corrected in the fifth step;
6 was estimated by step, determine the lifetime reduction ratio from an average polymerization degree of driving environment envisioned future, seventh to estimate the remaining life of the electrical device using the average degree of polymerization estimate in this lifetime reduction rate and the current And a step.

The invention according to claim 2 estimates the average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper of the oil-filled electrical equipment using the amount of deterioration index component contained in the insulating oil of the oil-filled electrical equipment, and uses this average degree of polymerization estimate to estimate the oil In the method of estimating the remaining life of the input electrical equipment,
A first step of creating an average polymerization degree estimation model that inputs at least the deterioration index component amount and the operating environment of the electric equipment, the operating environment such as the load factor, and outputs the average polymerization degree estimation value as actual data;
A second step of creating an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model that outputs at least the operating environment as output data and outputs the deterioration index component amount;
A third step of inputting the measurement data of the same type as the input data used to construct the average polymerization degree estimation model to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and estimating the average polymerization degree at an arbitrary future time point;
Deterioration in the operating environment assumed after an arbitrary time in the future by inputting into the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model the same predicted future operating environment data as the input data used for the construction of the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model A fourth step of estimating the index component amount;
The current operating environment data of the same type as the input data used for the construction of the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is input to the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model to estimate the current deterioration index component amount. A fifth step of correcting the deterioration index component amount estimated in the fourth step using a correction value obtained from the actual measurement value of the deterioration index component amount in
A sixth step of estimating an average degree of polymerization in an operating environment assumed after an arbitrary time in the future using the average degree of polymerization estimation model using the deterioration index component amount corrected in the fifth step;
The life reduction rate is obtained from the average degree of polymerization in the operating environment assumed after the arbitrary time in the future estimated by the sixth step, and the electrical equipment is obtained by using this life reduction rate and the estimated average degree of polymerization at the arbitrary time in the future. A seventh step of estimating the remaining life of

  The invention according to claim 3 is the method for estimating the remaining life of an oil-filled device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the deterioration index is input as the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model using the operating years and load factor of the electric device as inputs. A neural network that outputs component amounts is used.

  The invention according to claim 4 is the method for estimating the remaining life of the oil-filled device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is a plurality of cases where the operating years and load factor of the electrical device are similar. The deterioration index component amount is estimated using the average value of the data.

  According to the present invention, an insulation paper deterioration index such as a furfural amount is estimated in consideration of a change in the expected operating environment in the future, and an average polymerization degree estimation value based on this is used, so only the current operating environment is considered. Compared to the conventional technology, the remaining life of the oil-filled electrical device can be estimated with high accuracy.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
First, FIG. 1 is a flowchart showing a remaining life estimation method of the present embodiment. In this embodiment, an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model is introduced in addition to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and the remaining life of the oil-filled electrical device is estimated using these estimation models.
For each estimation model, a neural network, multiple regression equation, ensemble processing means (means for obtaining a simple average value, a weighted average value, etc.), etc. can be used. Will be described.

Next, the remaining life estimation method according to the present embodiment will be described for each step shown in FIG.
(1) Past performance data collection step (S1)
In order to construct an average polymerization degree estimation model and insulation paper deterioration index estimation model of insulating paper of oil-filled electrical equipment, actual data of oil-filled electrical equipment is collected as learning data of a neural network. The types of actual data include various insulating paper deterioration index component amounts (for example, furfural amount, CO ₂ + CO amount, moisture amount, oxygen amount, hydrogen amount, etc.) obtained by analyzing insulating oil. ), Operating environment of the electrical equipment (for example, operating years, load factor, etc.), design specifications of the electrical equipment (for example, insulation oil deterioration prevention method, cooling method, amount of insulating paper, amount of insulating oil, etc.) And the average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper.
In addition, when the insulating oil has been replaced or when deaeration processing is being performed, it is necessary to correct the various deterioration indicators described above, so information such as insulating oil replacement history and deaeration processing history is also available. I need it.

(2) Step of constructing average polymerization degree estimation model (S2)
An average polymerization degree estimation model is constructed using the result data collected in step S1. Of the actual data, the average degree of polymerization is used as an output factor of the neural network, and other factors are used as input factors.

(3) Step of constructing an insulation paper degradation index estimation model (S3)
An insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is constructed using the actual data collected in step S1. Among the performance data, the above-described various deterioration indexes are used as output factors of the neural network, and the operating environment (for example, operation years, load factor) is used as the input factor.

(4) Measurement data input step for diagnosis (S4)
For the oil-filled electrical equipment to be diagnosed, the input factors used in step S2, specifically, the various deterioration indicators obtained by analyzing the insulating oil, the operating environment of the electrical equipment, and the design specifications are used as measurement data. Input into the trained average polymerization degree estimation model.

(5) Average polymerization degree estimation step (S5)
The current average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper corresponding to the data input in step S4 is estimated using an average degree of polymerization estimation model.
Here, FIG. 2 is a conceptual graph showing a change in the estimated value of the average degree of polymerization with respect to the time axis. In Figure 2, the average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper at the start of the operation oil-filled electrical apparatus (initial degree of polymerization) D _p0 and 1000, an average degree of polymerization estimates at the present time obtained by the present step S5 D _{p (e.g.} 600) Is shown.

(6) Remaining life estimation step in the current operating environment (S6)
From the current average degree of polymerization estimated value obtained in step S5, the remaining life of the electric device is estimated.
The average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper (1000 in the initial state) gradually decreases as the insulating paper deteriorates, and when the average degree of polymerization reaches the reference value (450 in JEM1463-1993), the insulating paper, that is, the electric equipment Is defined as the lifetime of
A method for estimating the life or remaining life of electrical equipment from the average degree of polymerization of insulating paper is described in, for example, the reference “Electrical Joint Research Vol. 54, No. 5 (Part 1): Maintenance Management of Oil-filled Transformers” ing. Although details thereof are omitted, if the life reduction rate r is calculated using Equation 1 and the number of years until the average degree of polymerization reaches 450 from the present time using this life reduction rate r, it is determined that the remaining life is Become.
[Formula 1]
D _p = D _p0 (1-r) ⁿ
However,
D _p : Estimated average degree of polymerization after n years from the start of operation D _p0 : Initial average degree of polymerization r: Life reduction rate

Assuming the present time has passed 20 years since the start of operation (n = 20), when the average polymerization degree of the estimated value D _p of current obtained by the step S5 is 600, shorter service life by the following calculation by Equation 1 The rate r can be calculated.
600 = 1000 (1-r) ²⁰
r≈0.025
That is, in FIG. 2, the initial average degree of polymerization D _p0 (= 1000) gradually decreases with the life reduction rate r (≈0.025), and is estimated at the present time after n (= 20) years. The average degree of polymerization _Dp is 600. The characteristic line P1 in FIG. 2 is determined by the point of the initial average degree of polymerization D _p0 (= 1000) and the point at which the current average degree of polymerization D _p is 600.

Next, assuming that the life reduction rate r (≈0.025) will remain constant in the future, the number of years until the average degree of polymerization reaches the life level, that is, 450 (the number of years elapsed from the start of operation) according to Equation 1. ) Find n. That is, the number of years elapsed n when the characteristic line P1 intersects the line having an average degree of polymerization of 450 is obtained.
According to Equation 1,
450≈1000 (1-0.025) ⁿ
Therefore, n≈31, and, as shown in the figure, the life is reached about 31 years after the start of operation of the electric equipment (about 11 years after the present time).
In addition, when applying the present average degree of polymerization estimated value (= 600) to Equation 1, when n ′ is the number of years from the present time until the average degree of polymerization reaches the lifetime level,
450≈600 (1-0.025) ^{n ′}
Therefore, n′≈11.

(7) Insulating paper deterioration index estimated value correction value calculation step (S7)
Next, the current operating environment (the number of years of operation and the load factor) is input as measurement data to the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model constructed in step S3 to estimate the insulating paper deterioration index. Then, the correction value of the deterioration index estimated value is calculated by comparing this estimated value with various actually measured deterioration indexes.

Hereinafter, the contents of this step will be specifically described by taking the amount of furfural as an insulating paper deterioration index as an example.
The insulation paper deterioration index estimation model constructed in step S3 is a model that outputs the fullfural amount with the operating years and the load factor as inputs as the operating environment. Of course, the input factor is not limited to these two types, and the electric equipment Factors that affect the insulating paper deterioration index such as the design specifications (for example, the insulating oil deterioration prevention method, the cooling method, the amount of insulating paper, the amount of insulating oil, etc.) may be used.
In this step, first, the years of operation, the load factor, etc. are input to the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model, and the amount of furfural at the present time is estimated.

When the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model regarding the amount of furfural is expressed by a function f, Formula 2 is obtained.
[Formula 2]
F ₀ = f (Y ₀ , LF ₀ ,...)
However,
F ₀ : Estimated value of furfural amount at present Y ₀ : Years of operation at present LF ₀ : Load factor at present

Here, when the actual measured value of the furfural amount at present is F, for example, the correction value (correction amount or correction rate) of the estimated value of the furfural amount as an insulating paper deterioration index is obtained by the following Equation 3 or Equation 4. Can do.
[Formula 3]
Correction amount = F−F ₀
[Formula 4]
Correction rate = F / F ₀
Here, the furfural amount has been described as an example of the insulating paper deterioration index, but correction values of estimated values are similarly obtained for other deterioration indices used as input factors in the average polymerization degree estimation model.
When the accuracy of the function f is high and the measured value F of the furfural amount is equal to the estimated value F ₀ , the correction amount of Equation 3 is zero and the correction rate of Equation 4 is 1, in other words, it is necessary to perform correction. Absent.

Here, as the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model, in addition to using the above-described neural network, a method using an average value of similar data using examples stored in a database can be considered.
That is, using the operation years Y ₀ and the load factor LF ₀ as search keys, the data of the corresponding fullfural amount in the range of Y ₀ ± x years and LF ₀ ± y% is extracted from the database, and the operation years Y ₀ years, load A plurality of furfural amount data similar to the rate LF ₀ % is obtained. Then, the average value of these extracted data is calculated, and this is estimated as the furfural amount F ₀ corresponding to the current operating environment. The x year and y% are arbitrarily set.
If the furfural amount F _i of the similar data extracted from the database is F ₁ , F ₂ , F ₃ ,..., F _n , F ₀ can be obtained by Equation 5.

(8) Insulating paper deterioration index estimation step in the future operating environment (presumed operating environment) (S8)
Using the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model constructed in step S3 and the correction value obtained in step S7, the insulating paper deterioration index in the future operating environment is estimated.
As described above, when the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model related to the furfural amount is expressed by the function f, the furfural amount in the future operating environment can be estimated by the following Equation 6 or Equation 7.
[Formula 6]
F _f = f (Y _f , L _f ,...) + Correction amount [Formula 7]
F _f = f (Y _f , L _f ,...) × correction rate where
F _f : Estimated value of future furfural amount Y _f : Future operation years L _f : Future load factor

According to Equation 6 or Equation 7, the future furfural amount F _f is not estimated only by the function f which is an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model as in Equation 2 described above, but the estimated value and actual measurement of the furfural amount. This means that the estimation is performed in consideration of a correction value (correction amount or correction rate) based on a deviation from the value.
Here, the furfural amount has been described as an example of the insulating paper deterioration index, but the component amount in the future operating environment is similarly estimated for other deterioration indexes used as input factors in the average polymerization degree estimation model.

(9) Step of estimating average polymerization degree in the future operating environment (S9)
The future operating environment, the insulation paper deterioration index in the future operating environment estimated in step S8, the design specifications of the electric device, etc. are input to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and the average degree of polymerization in the future operating environment is calculated. .

(10) Remaining life estimation step in future operating environment (S10)
Using Equation 8, determine the lifetime reduction rate r _f from the average degree of polymerization in the future operation environment estimated by the step S9, the estimated remaining life by using the lifetime reduction rate r _f.
[Formula 8]
D _Pf = D _P0 (1-r _f ) ⁿ
However,
D _Pf : Average degree of polymerization in the future operating environment estimated in step S9 D _p0 : Initial average degree of polymerization r _f : Life reduction rate in the future operating environment

Here, Formula 8 shows that the life reduction rate r _f is obtained if the initial average degree of polymerization D _p0 and the average degree of polymerization D _Pf in the future operating environment after elapse of n years are given, For example, if the elapsed time n is 20 years (that is, the current time), the average degree of polymerization _{DPf at} the intersection of the characteristic line P2 in FIG. 2 and the current time axis is the average degree of polymerization in the future operating environment estimated in step S9. It becomes.
Therefore, for example, when the average degree of polymerization D _Pf in the future operating environment estimated in step S9 is 700, and the elapsed time n is 20 years, Equation 8 is calculated.
700 = 1000 (1-r _f ) ²⁰
r _f ≈0.018
Thus, the life reduction rate r _f in the future operating environment can be obtained.

Next, it is assumed that the average degree of polymerization decreases from the current average degree of polymerization estimated value D _p (= 600) according to the lifetime reduction rate r _f (the average degree of polymerization is 450). N ′ (number of years since the present time) n ′ is obtained by Equation 9.
[Formula 9]
450≈600 (1-0.018) ^{n ′}
That is, the elapsed number of years n ′ from the present time at the intersection of the characteristic line P2 ′ in FIG. 2 having the same life reduction rate r _f and the characteristic line P2 and the line having an average degree of polymerization of 450 is obtained.
Solving Equation 9, since n′≈16, the remaining life n ′ is about 16 years at the present time, that is, the life from the start of operation is about 36 years.

(11) Remaining life comparison step (S11)
The remaining life n ′ estimated in step S6 was about 11 years, but as a result of estimation in step S10 based on the insulating paper deterioration index considering the future operating environment, the remaining life n ′ was about 16 years. That is, it is understood that the remaining life is extended by about 5 years when the change of the future operating environment is taken into consideration.

Note that the characteristic line P3 in FIG. 2 estimates the deterioration index in step S8 in consideration of the operation environment assumed after an arbitrary future time point (after a year), and uses the estimated deterioration index value in step S9. _Is a characteristic line for _{obtaining the} average degree of polymerization estimated value _Dpa by the above and further estimating the remaining life in step S10.
In this way, the remaining life may be estimated by estimating the deterioration index and the average degree of polymerization in consideration of not only the present time but also the future operating environment assumed at any future time.

  In addition, the remaining life estimated by the present embodiment is not used as a final conclusion as it is, but an average value of remaining lives estimated by the present embodiment at a plurality of time points is obtained, or an average degree of polymerization at a past time point is estimated. A final conclusion may be made by correcting the estimated remaining life value by a method such as considering the tendency of the remaining life when the value is the starting point.

Finally, an example of a system configuration for realizing the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
This system includes a data input means 10, a database 20, an insulating paper deterioration index estimation means 30, an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model 31, an average polymerization degree estimation means 40, an average polymerization degree estimation model 41, a remaining life estimation means 50, and data. An actual system configuration can be realized as a general-purpose electronic computer such as a personal computer and a program installed in the computer. In addition, each estimation means 30, 40, 50 in FIG. 3 is a function mainly realized by a program.

The data input means 10 can also input various data in cooperation with other computers on the network, or input from the screen system using a keyboard. It is also possible to input using a removable electronic storage medium. The data input means 10 is necessary for constructing the estimation models 31 and 41, or for the estimation means 30 and 40 to estimate the insulation paper deterioration index and the average degree of polymerization using the estimation models 31 and 41. Inputs various data, such as actual data of oil-filled electrical equipment, various degradation indicators as measurement data, operating environment of the electrical equipment, design specifications of the electrical equipment, average degree of polymerization of insulating paper, etc. .
In the database 20, input data by the data input means 10 is stored for the construction of the estimation models 31 and 41 and estimation by the estimation means 30 and 40.

As described above, the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model 31 and the average polymerization degree estimation model 41 are realized by a neural network, a multiple regression equation, or the like, and the insulating paper deterioration index estimation means 30 and the average polymerization degree estimation means 40 are the above estimation models. 31 and 41 are used to estimate the degradation index such as the amount of furfural and the average degree of polymerization of the insulating paper, respectively. The insulating paper deterioration index estimation means 30 can also calculate a correction value for the above-described deterioration index estimated value.
The remaining life estimation means 50 estimates the remaining life of the oil-filled electrical device in the current and future operating environment.

The data output means 60 displays the estimation result by the remaining life estimation means 50 on a CRT or a liquid crystal display, or prints out using a printer device or the like.
Note that the above system configuration examples are merely exemplary, and the present invention can be realized by other types of system configurations.

It is a flowchart which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a conceptual graph which shows the change of the estimated value of the average degree of polymerization with respect to the time axis in embodiment. It is a figure which shows the system configuration example for implement | achieving this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the amount of furfural of an oil-filled electrical equipment, and an average degree of polymerization remaining.

Explanation of symbols

10: Data input means 20: Database 30: Insulating paper deterioration index estimation means 31: Insulating paper deterioration index estimation model 40: Average polymerization degree estimation means 41: Average polymerization degree estimation model 50: Remaining life estimation means 60: Data output means

Claims (4)

Estimate the average degree of polymerization of insulating paper in oil-filled electrical equipment using the amount of degradation index component contained in the insulation oil of oil-filled electrical equipment, and estimate the remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment using this average degree of polymerization estimate In the way to
A first step of creating an average polymerization degree estimation model that inputs at least the deterioration index component amount and the operating environment of the electric equipment, the operating environment such as the load factor, and outputs the average polymerization degree estimation value as actual data;
A second step of creating an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model that outputs at least the operating environment as output data and outputs the deterioration index component amount;
A third step of inputting the measurement data of the same type as the input data used for constructing the average polymerization degree estimation model to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and estimating a current average polymerization degree;
Estimate the amount of degradation index components in the expected operating environment by inputting the predicted future operating environment data of the same type as the input data used to construct the insulating paper degradation index estimation model into the insulating paper degradation index estimation model. And a fourth step
The current operating environment data of the same type as the input data used for the construction of the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is input to the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model to estimate the current deterioration index component amount. A fifth step of correcting the deterioration index component amount estimated in the fourth step using a correction value obtained from the actual measurement value of the deterioration index component amount in
A sixth step of estimating an average degree of polymerization in a driving environment assumed in the future using the average degree of polymerization estimation model using the deterioration index component amount corrected in the fifth step;
6 was estimated by step, determine the lifetime reduction ratio from an average polymerization degree of driving environment envisioned future, seventh to estimate the remaining life of the electrical device using the average degree of polymerization estimate in this lifetime reduction rate and the current Steps,
A remaining life estimation method for oil-filled electrical equipment, comprising: Estimate the average degree of polymerization of insulating paper in oil-filled electrical equipment using the amount of degradation index component contained in the insulation oil of oil-filled electrical equipment, and estimate the remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment using this average degree of polymerization estimate In the way to
A first step of creating an average polymerization degree estimation model that inputs at least the deterioration index component amount and the operating environment of the electric equipment, the operating environment such as the load factor, and outputs the average polymerization degree estimation value as actual data;
A second step of creating an insulating paper deterioration index estimation model that outputs at least the operating environment as output data and outputs the deterioration index component amount;
A third step of inputting the measurement data of the same type as the input data used to construct the average polymerization degree estimation model to the average polymerization degree estimation model, and estimating the average polymerization degree at an arbitrary future time point;
Deterioration in the operating environment assumed after an arbitrary time in the future by inputting into the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model the same predicted future operating environment data as the input data used for the construction of the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model A fourth step of estimating the index component amount;
The current operating environment data of the same type as the input data used for the construction of the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model is input to the insulation paper deterioration index estimation model to estimate the current deterioration index component amount. A fifth step of correcting the deterioration index component amount estimated in the fourth step using a correction value obtained from the actual measurement value of the deterioration index component amount in
A sixth step of estimating an average degree of polymerization in an operating environment assumed after an arbitrary time in the future using the average degree of polymerization estimation model using the deterioration index component amount corrected in the fifth step;
The life reduction rate is obtained from the average degree of polymerization in the operating environment assumed after the arbitrary time in the future estimated by the sixth step, and the electrical equipment is obtained by using this life reduction rate and the estimated average degree of polymerization at the arbitrary time in the future. A seventh step of estimating the remaining life of
A remaining life estimation method for oil-filled electrical equipment, comprising: In the method for estimating the remaining life of an oil-filled device according to claim 1 or 2,
A method for estimating the remaining life of an oil-filled electrical device, wherein a neural network is used as the insulating paper degradation index estimation model, wherein the neural network that outputs the degradation index component amount with the operating years and load factor of the electrical device as inputs is used. In the method for estimating the remaining life of an oil-filled device according to claim 1 or 2,
Remaining life of oil-filled electrical equipment, characterized in that, as the insulating paper deterioration index estimation model, the deterioration index component amount is estimated using an average value of a plurality of case data having similar operating years and load factors of the electrical equipment Estimation method.

Images