JP5383767B2 - Inflow amount prediction apparatus, inflow amount prediction method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an inflow amount prediction device, an inflow amount prediction method, and a program.

  It is necessary to predict the inflow for the operation of the reservoir. If there is snow in the water source area, it is necessary to consider the amount of inflow in consideration of snow accumulation and melting. For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a system that predicts an inflow amount in consideration of the amount of snow melting.

JP 2009-167751 A

  Although the amount of snow melting varies depending on the temperature, there may be no effect on snow melting if the minimum temperature is low even if the maximum temperature is high. However, in Patent Document 1, since the model is constructed using the temperature at which snow melting begins, an accurate amount of snow melting cannot be predicted in situations where the minimum temperature is low and does not affect snow melting even if the maximum temperature is high. .

  The present invention has been made in view of such a background, and an object thereof is to provide an inflow amount prediction device, an inflow amount prediction method, and a program capable of accurately predicting an inflow amount.

A main invention of the present invention for solving the above problems is a system for predicting the amount of water flowing into a reservoir during a snowmelt period, and the predicted value of the inflow is calculated based on the past actual value of the inflow. An inflow amount calculation unit to calculate, a weather information acquisition unit to acquire information including respective predicted values of the highest temperature and the lowest temperature at the point corresponding to the reservoir, and the temperature obtained by adding the highest temperature and the lowest temperature An inflow amount prediction adjustment unit that calculates a weighted air temperature and increases the predicted value of the inflow amount when the weighted air temperature is equal to or higher than a predetermined threshold value.

Further, in the inflow amount prediction system of the present invention, the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit sets the minimum temperature as the weighted temperature when the predicted value of the maximum temperature is a predetermined value or less, and the predicted value of the minimum temperature is the value of the minimum temperature. When the predetermined temperature is equal to or higher than the predetermined value, the highest temperature is set as the weighted temperature, and when the predicted value of the highest temperature is larger than the predetermined value and the predicted value of the lowest temperature is less than the predetermined value, The maximum temperature is weighted by a value obtained by dividing the maximum temperature by a difference in minimum temperature, and the weighted temperature is calculated by weighting the minimum temperature by a value obtained by dividing the absolute value of the minimum temperature by the range. It may be.

The inflow amount prediction system of the present invention further includes an actual value storage unit that stores actual values of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature on the previous day, and the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit actually measures the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature on the previous day. When the difference between the weighted temperature of the previous day and the weighted temperature of the day is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, the inflow amount is predicted more than when the difference is smaller than the predetermined value. The value may be increased.

  The inflow amount prediction system of the present invention further includes a snow amount acquisition unit that acquires a predicted value of the snow amount at the point, and the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit, when the snow amount is a predetermined value or more, The predicted value of the inflow amount may be increased more than when the amount of snow is smaller than the predetermined value.

  Further, the inflow amount prediction system of the present invention is based on a winter type input unit that receives an input as to whether or not a weather map is a winter type, and based on the past actual value of the inflow amount or the past actual value of the snow cover amount. And an increase determination unit for determining whether or not the inflow amount has increased, and the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit has a winter type weather map and the inflow amount has increased in the past. In such a case, the predicted value of the inflow amount may be decreased.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for predicting an inflow amount of water into a reservoir during a snow melting period, wherein the computer calculates a predicted value of the inflow amount based on a past actual value of the inflow amount. Obtaining information including respective predicted values of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature at a point corresponding to the reservoir, calculating a weighted temperature that is a temperature obtained by adding the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature, and the weighted temperature is predetermined. When the value is equal to or greater than the threshold value, the predicted value of the inflow amount is increased.

According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a program for predicting an inflow amount of water into a reservoir during a snowmelt period, and calculating a predicted value of the inflow amount based on a past actual value of the inflow amount. Obtaining information including predicted values of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature at a point corresponding to the reservoir, and if the predicted value of the maximum temperature is less than or equal to a predetermined value, the minimum temperature, When the minimum temperature is equal to or higher than the predetermined value, the minimum temperature is used. In other cases, the maximum temperature is divided by the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature, and the absolute value of the minimum temperature is divided by the difference. And a step of increasing the predicted value of the inflow amount when the weighted temperature is equal to or higher than a predetermined threshold value.

  Other problems and solutions to be disclosed by the present application will be made clear by the embodiments of the invention and the drawings.

  According to the present invention, the inflow amount can be predicted with high accuracy.

It is a figure which shows the hardware structural example of the inflow amount prediction apparatus. It is a figure which shows the software structure of the inflow amount prediction apparatus. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the performance data memorize | stored in the performance value storage part. It is a figure which shows the flow of the analysis process of the performance data by the inflow amount prediction apparatus. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which determines snow melting start temperature. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which determines snow melting start time. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which determines inflow amount increase weighted temperature. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which determines the inflow amount increase weighted day temperature difference the day before. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which determines an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula. It is a figure which shows the flow of the prediction process of inflow amount. It is a figure which shows the flow of the process which estimates the increase amount of inflow.

  Hereinafter, the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment will be described. The inflow amount prediction device 10 of the present embodiment is a system that predicts the inflow amount of water into a reservoir during the snow melting period, and, as will be described later, an air temperature (hereinafter referred to as a weighted air temperature) according to the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. And the inflow is predicted using a prediction formula corresponding to the weighted temperature. In the following description, it is assumed that the prediction target date is the day to which the time point when the prediction process is performed belongs.

  Although detailed prediction will be described later, the inflow amount prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment analyzes past results and calculates a weighted temperature at which the amount of inflow due to snow melting increases according to the amount of snow (hereinafter referred to as an inflow amount increase weighted temperature). )) And a prediction formula for increasing the inflow according to the change in the weighted temperature from the previous day (hereinafter referred to as an inflow increase prediction formula). Also, the amount of increase or decrease in inflow is predicted using the above inflow increase weighted temperature or inflow increase prediction formula, etc., for example, the inflow predicted by a general method such as calculation based on past actual values In addition, the predicted value of the inflow amount is adjusted by adding the predicted value of the increase / decrease amount.

== Hardware configuration ==
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration example of the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10. The inflow amount prediction device 10 includes a CPU 101, a memory 102, a storage device 103, a communication interface 104, an input device 105, and an output device 106. The storage device 103 stores various data and programs, such as a hard disk drive, a solid state drive, and a flash memory. The CPU 101 implements various functions by reading a program stored in the storage device 103 into the memory 102 and executing it. The communication interface 104 is an interface for connecting to the communication network 30. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, and a wireless communication network. Such as a wireless communication device. The inflow prediction device 10 is connected to a weather measurement device (not shown) via the communication interface 104, and can receive data such as the amount of snow, the depth of snow, and the precipitation from the measurement device. The input device 105 is, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a trackball, a touch panel, or a microphone that accepts data input. The output device 106 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data. The inflow amount prediction device 10 may include a plurality of input devices 105 and output devices 106.

== Software configuration ==
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10. The inflow amount prediction device 10 includes an analysis unit 11, a prediction unit 12, and a storage unit 13. The analysis unit 11 and the prediction unit 12 are realized by the CPU 101 included in the inflow amount prediction device 10 reading out the program stored in the storage device 103 to the memory 102 and executing it, and the storage unit 13 is configured to predict the inflow amount. This is realized as a part of a storage area provided by the memory 102 or the storage device 103 included in the device 10.

== Storage unit 13 ==
The storage unit 13 includes a performance value storage unit 131 and a prediction information storage unit 132.
The actual value storage unit 131 stores data including various actual values used for predicting the inflow amount (hereinafter referred to as actual data). A configuration example of the performance data stored in the performance value storage unit 131 is shown in FIG. In the actual data, in association with the date, the actual value of snow accumulation on that date, the actual value of snow melting and the actual value of inflow, and the increase in inflow from the previous day (if increased, a positive value is set. If the value decreases, a negative value is set.), The actual value of the highest and lowest temperatures on that date, the weighted temperature calculated based on the highest and lowest temperatures, the weighted temperature and the weighted temperature of the previous day And a winter type flag indicating whether or not the atmospheric pressure arrangement shown in the weather map is a winter type. The amount of snow accumulation, the amount of snow melting, and the amount of inflow are measured values measured in, for example, a reservoir. The maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are data acquired from, for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private weather company. The winter flag is input by the operator. The weighted temperature is calculated by the following equation (1).

  That is, the weighted temperature is the minimum temperature when the maximum temperature is 0 ° C. (not limited to 0 ° C., but may be an arbitrary predetermined value), and the minimum temperature is 0 ° C. (the above arbitrary predetermined value). In other cases, it is the maximum temperature. In other cases, the maximum temperature is divided by the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature, and the absolute value of the minimum temperature is divided by the above range. And the total value.

  The prediction information storage unit 132 stores information necessary for predicting the increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount (hereinafter also referred to as prediction information). The prediction information storage unit 132 stores a maximum temperature at which snow melting starts (hereinafter referred to as the maximum temperature at which snow melting starts), a date at which snow melting starts (hereinafter referred to as a snow melting start date), and a predetermined threshold value for determining the start of snow melting. (Hereinafter referred to as a snowmelt threshold), an inflow amount that is reduced by freezing of snowmelt water (hereinafter referred to as a freeze decrease amount), an inflow increase weighted temperature, and a predetermined threshold for determining an inflow increase weighted temperature. (Hereinafter referred to as the first increase threshold), a predetermined day-to-day difference in weighted temperature at which the inflow due to melting snow increases (hereinafter referred to as an inflow-increase weighted temperature difference in advance), and a predetermined day-to-day difference in inflow increase load temperature A threshold value (hereinafter referred to as a second increase threshold value), a statistical model for predicting an increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount (hereinafter referred to as an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula), and the like are stored.

== Analysis Unit 11 ==
The analysis unit 11 analyzes the result data stored in the result value storage unit 131, and calculates a prediction formula, a parameter, and the like for predicting the increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount according to snow accumulation or melting snow. The analysis unit 11 includes a snow melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111, a snow melting start time determining unit 112, an inflow increase weighted temperature determining unit 113, an inflow increasing weight prior temperature difference determining unit 114, and an inflow increasing prediction formula calculating unit 115. .

  The snow melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111 determines the snow melting start temperature and registers the determined snow melting start temperature in the prediction information storage unit 132. The snow-melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111 obtains the lowest one of the maximum temperatures included in the actual data corresponding to the year from the actual value storage unit 131 in the snow melting amount equal to or higher than the snow melting threshold. Read out and average the read out maximum temperature to determine the maximum temperature at which snow melting starts. The median or maximum value of the maximum temperature may be set as the maximum temperature at which snow melting starts.

  The snow melting start time determination unit 112 determines a snow melting start date, and registers the determined snow melting start date in the prediction information storage unit 132. Moreover, the snow melting start time determination unit 112 determines the amount of decrease in freezing. The snow melting start time determination unit 112 reads, from the actual value storage unit 131, the earliest date among the dates included in the actual data corresponding to the year for which the snow melting amount is equal to or greater than the snow melting threshold, The snowmelt start date is determined by averaging the date of the read date. Note that the median or maximum value of dates may be used as the snow melting start date. The snow melting start time determination unit 112 reads the increase inflow amount of the actual data whose date is after the snow melting start date and the winter type flag is “true”, and averages the read increase inflow amount to reduce the freeze. Determine the amount. In the case of winter-type atmospheric pressure arrangement, the average value of the above increase inflow is expected to be a negative value because the water due to the melting of the snow often freezes even if the temperature falls and the melting of the snow begins. The

  The inflow increase weighted temperature determining unit 113 determines the inflow increase weighted temperature according to the amount of snow, and registers the determined inflow increase weighted temperature in the prediction information storage unit 132. In the present embodiment, the amount of snow cover is increased for each predetermined step value (hereinafter referred to as a snow cover step amount). That is, the inflow increase weighted temperature determination unit 113 increases the snow cover amount 1 for each snow step amount, and the snow cover amount of the actual data corresponding to the year for each year is the snow cover amount 1 or more, and Read out the weighted temperature which is smaller than the snow cover amount 2 obtained by adding the snow cover step amount to the snow cover amount 1 and the increase inflow amount is equal to or higher than the first increase threshold, and On average, the inflow increase weighted temperature is determined. The median value or maximum value of the above-mentioned weighted temperature may be used as the inflow increase weighted temperature. If the weighted temperature does not exceed the inflow increase weighted temperature, it is expected that the weighted temperature does not increase or does not increase at all compared to the case where the weighted temperature is higher than the inflow increase weighting temperature. Therefore, in this embodiment, when the weighted temperature does not exceed the inflow amount increase weighted temperature, the inflow amount does not increase (the predicted increase / decrease inflow amount is 0).

  The inflow amount increase weighted temperature pre-day difference determination unit 114 determines the inflow amount increase weight temperature pre-day difference, and registers the determined inflow amount increase weight temperature pre-day difference in the prediction information storage unit 132. The inflow amount increase weighted air temperature difference determination unit 114 determines that the increase inflow amount of the actual data corresponding to the year is the second increase threshold value (the second increase threshold is the first increase threshold value) from the actual value storage unit 131. (It is assumed that the value is larger than the increase threshold value.) Read out the lowest of the previous days of the weighted temperature included in the above, and average the read days before the weighted temperature to calculate the inflow increase weighted day-to-day difference To decide. In addition, the median value or the maximum value of the above-mentioned weighted temperature may be used as the day before the inflow increase weighted temperature. If the change in weighted temperature from the previous day is large, the inflow is expected to increase. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the increase amount of the inflow amount (predicted increase / decrease inflow amount) is calculated using an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula that varies depending on whether or not the day difference before the weighted temperature is equal to or greater than the day difference before the inflow amount increase weighted temperature. I am doing so.

  The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 creates an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula. The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 obtains an approximate expression of the past inflow amount increase amount and sets it as the inflow amount increase amount calculation formula. The inflow increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 includes, in the actual data, the weighted temperature is equal to or higher than the inflow increase weighted temperature for each snow accumulation, and the day before weighted temperature is equal to or greater than the day difference before the inflow increase weighted temperature. The inflow amount increase amount included in the stored amount is read out, an approximate expression for the read inflow amount increase amount is obtained, and an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula corresponding to the snow cover amount is determined. The inflow rate increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 reads out the inflow rate increase amount included in the actual data in which the day difference before the weighted temperature increase is smaller than the day difference before the inflow amount increase weighted temperature. Also, an approximate expression is obtained to determine an inflow increase calculation formula (hereinafter referred to as a default inflow increase calculation formula) when the difference in the day before the weighted temperature is not large. The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 registers the inflow amount increase amount calculation formula and the default inflow amount increase amount calculation formula for each snow accumulation amount in the prediction information storage unit 132. In addition, when the difference in the day before the weighted temperature is equal to or greater than the day before the increase in the inflow, the increase in the inflow calculated using the inflow increase calculation formula for each snow cover is the default inflow increase calculation formula. It is expected to be larger than the amount of increase in inflow calculated using

== Prediction unit 12 ==
The prediction unit 12 predicts the inflow amount. The prediction unit 12 includes a weather information acquisition unit 121, an atmospheric pressure arrangement input unit 122, an inflow amount prediction unit 123, and an inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124.

  The meteorological information acquisition unit 121 acquires information on a weather forecast at a predetermined weather forecast point corresponding to the reservoir (hereinafter referred to as weather information) from the Japan Meteorological Agency, a meteorological company, or the like. The weather information acquisition process by the weather information acquisition unit 121 is assumed to be general. In this embodiment, it is assumed that the weather information includes a weather map, a maximum temperature, a minimum temperature, a precipitation amount, a snowfall amount, and a predicted amount of snowfall. In addition, you may make it acquire the predicted value of snow cover from the measuring device of snow cover, for example. In this embodiment, the point corresponding to the reservoir is set in advance, but may be designated from the user.

  The atmospheric pressure arrangement input unit 122 receives an input of a winter type flag indicating whether or not the atmospheric pressure arrangement of the prediction target day is a winter type. When the weather information acquisition unit 121 can acquire the forecast weather map for the prediction target day, the atmospheric pressure arrangement input unit 122 displays the forecast weather map, and the user views the forecast weather map to determine whether or not the atmospheric pressure arrangement is a winter type. It is possible to make a determination and accept the result of the determination.

  The inflow amount prediction unit 123 predicts the inflow amount based on at least one of weather information and performance data. A general process can be used for the prediction process by the inflow amount prediction unit 123. For example, the inflow amount prediction unit 123 sets the average value or median value of the inflow amount of the actual data having the same month and day as the prediction target date as the predicted value of the inflow amount, or among the actual data, the maximum temperature of the prediction target day The mean or median of the inflows of actual data that includes the maximum temperature within the specified value and the difference between the predicted value and the minimum temperature within the specified date, and the minimum temperature within the specified temperature. Or the like can be used as a predicted value of the inflow amount. Note that the inflow amount prediction unit 123 may predict the inflow amount based on the weather forecast, not based on the actual data.

  The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 calculates a predicted value of the increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount (hereinafter referred to as a predicted increase / decrease inflow amount) in accordance with the amount of snow and the weighted temperature. Details of the predicted increase / decrease inflow calculation processing will be described later.

== Analysis processing ==
Hereinafter, the process performed in the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10 will be described.
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a flow of analysis processing of performance data by the inflow amount prediction device 10.

  The snow melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111 performs the process of determining the snow melting start temperature shown in FIG. 5 (S31). The snow melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111 reads the actual data of the date corresponding to the year for each year (S311), and the minimum maximum temperature included in the read actual data in which the amount of snow melting is equal to or greater than the snow melting threshold. A value is extracted (S312). The snow melting start maximum temperature determining unit 111 averages the minimum values of the extracted maximum temperatures to obtain the snow melting start maximum temperature (S313), and registers the snow melting start maximum temperature in the prediction information storage unit 132 (S314).

  The snow melting start time determination unit 112 performs a snow melting start time determination process shown in FIG. 6 (S32). That is, for each year, the snow melting start time determining unit 112 reads the actual data of the date corresponding to the year (S321), and among the read actual data, the date included in the snow melting amount that is equal to or greater than the snow melting threshold. To extract the earliest date (S322). The snow melting start time determination unit 112 averages the dates of the extracted dates as the snow melting start date (S323). Next, the snow melting start time determination unit 112 reads the increased inflow amount included in the actual data whose date is after the snow melting start date and the winter type flag is “true” (S324), and reads The increased inflow amount is averaged to obtain a freezing decrease amount (S325). The snow melting start time determination unit 112 registers the snow melting start date and the freeze decrease amount in the prediction information storage unit 132 (S326).

  The inflow increase weighted temperature determining unit 113 performs the inflow increase weighted temperature determination process shown in FIG. 7 (S33). The inflow increase weighted temperature determination unit 113 sets 0 (zero) and a predetermined snow accumulation step amount to the snow accumulation amount 1 and the snow accumulation amount 2, respectively (S331), and the snow accumulation amount is 1 or more from the actual value storage unit 131. And the performance data that is less than the snow cover amount 2 is read (S332). For each year, the actual value storage unit 131 extracts the data corresponding to the year from the read actual data (S333), and the increased inflow amount included in the extracted actual data is equal to or greater than the first increase threshold. The lowest value is extracted from the included weighted temperatures (S334). The inflow increase weighted temperature determining unit 113 averages the extracted minimum values of the weighted temperatures to calculate the inflow increase weighted air temperature (hereinafter referred to as inflow increase weighted temperature (hereinafter referred to as inflow increase weight)) corresponding to the snow cover from the snow cover 1 to the snow cover 2. (Snow accumulation amount)) is calculated (S335). The inflow increase weighted temperature determination unit 113 adds the snow accumulation step amount to the snow accumulation amount 1 and the snow accumulation amount 2 (S336), and if the snow accumulation amount 1 is less than a predetermined upper limit value (hereinafter referred to as the maximum snow accumulation amount). (S337: NO), the processing from step S332 is repeated. When the snow cover amount 1 becomes equal to or greater than the maximum snow cover amount (S337: YES), the inflow increase weighting temperature determining unit 113 determines the inflow increase weighting temperature for each snow cover amount for each snow cover step amount from 0 to less than the maximum snow cover (snow cover). Amount) is registered in the prediction information storage unit 132.

  The inflow amount increase weighted temperature pre-day difference determination unit 114 performs the inflow amount increase weight temperature pre-day difference determination process shown in FIG. 8 (S34). The inflow amount increase weighted temperature previous day difference determination unit 114 determines that the weighted temperature is greater than or equal to the inflow amount increase weighted temperature (snow cover amount) from the actual value storage unit 131 for each snow cover amount from 0 to less than the maximum snow cover amount. The actual result data is read (S341). For each year, the inflow amount increase weighted temperature pre-day difference determination unit 114 extracts the corresponding year from the read actual data (S342), and the increased inflow amount included in the extracted actual data is the second increase threshold value. The lowest value is extracted from the difference in the day before the weighted temperature included in the above (S343). The inflow increase weighted temperature pre-day difference determination unit 114 averages the extracted minimum values of the pre-weighted temperature pre-day difference, and corresponds to the inflow increase load temperature pre-day difference (hereinafter referred to as inflow increase load temperature pre-day difference (snow cover). (Amount).) Is calculated (S344). After repeating the above process, the inflow increase weighted temperature pre-day difference determination unit 114 calculates the inflow amount increase weighted temperature pre-day difference according to the snow cover amount for each snow cover step amount from 0 to less than the maximum snow cover amount ( The amount of snow) is registered in the prediction information storage unit 132 (S345).

  The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 performs determination processing of the inflow amount increase amount calculation formula shown in FIG. 9 (S35). The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 obtains, from the actual value storage unit 131, the daily difference before the weighted air temperature from the actual value storage unit 131 for each snow cover amount from 0 to less than the maximum snow amount (the snow amount). (S351), an approximate expression with the weighted air temperature included in the read actual data as an explanatory variable and an increased inflow amount as an objective variable is calculated, and an inflow amount increase amount calculation formula according to the snow cover amount (Hereinafter referred to as an inflow increase calculation formula (snow cover)) (S352). The approximate expression can be obtained by a general approximation process. For example, it may be calculated by the least square method. Moreover, the inflow amount increase amount calculation formula may be an arbitrary order. The inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation unit 115 registers the inflow amount increase amount calculation formula (snow cover amount) for each snow cover amount for each snow cover step amount of 0 or more and less than the maximum snow cover amount in the prediction information storage unit 132, and the default inflow amount. The increase amount calculation formula is registered in the prediction information storage unit 132 (S355).

  Prediction information is registered in the prediction information storage unit 132 as described above.

== Prediction process ==
FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a flow of the inflow amount prediction process performed by the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment.

  When the inflow prediction adjustment unit 124 receives an input of a prediction target date (S401), the weather information acquisition unit 121 acquires weather information (S402), and the atmospheric pressure arrangement input unit 122 displays a weather map included in the acquired weather information. Is displayed, and an input of a winter type flag is received from the operator (S403). The inflow amount prediction unit 123 predicts the inflow amount based on weather information and performance data (S403). In addition, a well-known method is employable for the inflow amount prediction process.

  When the input winter type flag is “true” (S404: YES), the inflow prediction adjustment unit 124 determines whether the prediction target date is after the snowmelt start date (S406), and starts snowmelt. If it is after the day (S406: YES), the freeze decrease amount is set as the predicted increase / decrease inflow amount (S407), and if it is after the snowmelt start date (S406: NO), the predicted increase / decrease inflow amount is set to 0 (S408).

  When the winter type flag is “false” (S404: NO), the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 has a predicted value of the maximum temperature included in the weather information that is equal to or higher than the snowmelt start maximum temperature (S409: YES), and is included in the weather information. When the predicted value of the amount of precipitation is greater than 0, or when the predicted value of snowfall is 0 (S410: YES), the predicted increase / decrease inflow is set to 0 (S411). The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 determines whether or not the predicted value of the maximum temperature is lower than the snowmelt start maximum temperature (S409: NO), or if the predicted snowfall amount is greater than 0 (S410: NO), the inflow amount shown in FIG. A predicted increase / decrease inflow is predicted by the increase prediction process (S412), and the predicted increase / decrease inflow is adjusted by adding the predicted increase / decrease inflow to the inflow predicted by the inflow prediction unit 123 (S413).

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a flow of the inflow rate increase prediction process. The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 rounds the predicted snow amount value included in the weather information to the snow step amount unit to obtain the predicted snow amount (S421), and calculates the predicted maximum and minimum temperature values included in the weather information in the above formula. The predicted weighted temperature is calculated by applying to (1) (S422). The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 reads out the inflow amount increase weighted temperature (predicted snow amount) from the prediction information storage unit 132, and if the predicted weighted temperature is less than the inflow amount increase weighted temperature (snow amount) (S423: NO), The predicted increase / decrease inflow amount is set to 0 (S424).

  If the predicted weighted temperature is equal to or higher than the inflow increasing weighted temperature (predicted snow amount) (S423: YES), the inflow amount prediction adjusting unit 124 reads the weighted temperature of the day before the prediction target date from the actual value storage unit 131 and predicts it. A value obtained by subtracting the read-out weighted temperature from the weighted temperature is set as a day difference before prediction (S425). In addition, when the weighted temperature on the day before the prediction target day is not registered in the actual value storage unit 131, the weather information acquisition unit 121 acquires the weather information on the day before the prediction target day, and the highest temperature included in the weather information The weighted temperature of the previous day is calculated by applying the temperature and the minimum temperature to Equation (1).

  The inflow prediction adjustment unit 124 reads out the inflow increase weighted pre-day difference (predicted snow amount) from the prediction information storage unit 132, and the calculated pre-prediction day difference is greater than or equal to the inflow increase weighted pre-temperature difference (predicted snow amount). If there is (S426: YES), the inflow amount increase calculation formula (predicted snow amount) is read from the prediction information storage unit 132, and the predicted weighted temperature is applied to the read inflow amount increase calculation formula (predicted snow amount). The increase / decrease inflow amount is calculated (S427).

  The inflow prediction adjustment unit 124 reads the default inflow increase calculation formula from the prediction information storage unit 132 if the pre-prediction day difference is less than the inflow increase weighted temperature pre-day difference (predicted snow cover amount) (S426: NO), The predicted increase / decrease inflow is calculated by applying the predicted weighted temperature to the default inflow increase calculation formula (S428).

  As described above, according to the inflow amount prediction apparatus 10 of the present embodiment, the inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 124 obtains an increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount that increases or decreases due to snow melting (predicted increase / decrease inflow amount), and thereby the inflow amount. The predicted value of the inflow amount calculated by the prediction unit 123 can be adjusted. That is, the predicted value of the inflow amount can be adjusted in consideration of melting snow. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the inflow amount can be improved.

  In the present embodiment, the increase in inflow is not determined by using the simple maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, or the average temperature, but the inflow increase is determined by using the weighted temperature obtained by the above equation (1). The condition is determined (S423, S426, etc. in FIG. 11). Even if the maximum temperature is high, if the minimum temperature is low, snow melting may not be affected. However, according to the inflow amount prediction device 10 of the present embodiment, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are calculated using the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. Since the weighted temperature is calculated after weighting, if the minimum temperature is low even if the maximum temperature is high, the weighted temperature can be lowered. Can be accurately predicted. Therefore, the accuracy of the predicted value of the final inflow amount can also be improved.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are evaluated based on the weighted temperature, and it can be determined whether the snow is accumulated or the snow is melted depending on whether the weighted temperature is equal to or higher than the inflow increase weighted temperature. In general, in the situation where it is difficult to determine whether it is snowfall or snowmelt, the accuracy of prediction is reduced. However, according to the inflow amount prediction device 10 of the present embodiment, it is determined whether the snowfall or snowmelt is performed using the weighted temperature. Since the increase / decrease amount of the inflow amount can be predicted above, the prediction accuracy of the inflow amount can be improved.

  Further, in this embodiment, when the atmospheric pressure arrangement is winter type, the predicted value of the inflow amount is adjusted so that the inflow amount decreases in consideration of the decrease in inflow amount that should increase due to snow melting due to freezing. can do. Thereby, the precision of the predicted value of the inflow amount can be improved.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the increase or decrease of the inflow is predicted only when the predicted value of the maximum temperature is lower than the maximum temperature at which snow melting starts or when there is no precipitation forecast (when the precipitation is 0). I am doing so. When the maximum temperature is high and precipitation is predicted, it is expected that the inflow according to snow melting is predicted with relatively high accuracy. The increase or decrease of the inflow can be predicted only for the situation where it is difficult to judge whether or not it will be snowmelt. Therefore, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the inflow amount without changing the predicted value of the inflow amount that is correctly predicted.

  In the present embodiment, the inflow amount prediction device 10 is realized by a single computer, but may be realized by a plurality of computers. For example, the analysis unit 11, the prediction unit 12, and the storage unit 13 can be realized by different computers.

  Further, in the present embodiment, threshold values such as the snowmelt start temperature, the snowmelt start date, the inflow increase weighted temperature, and the inflow increase weighted temperature difference the day before are determined based on the record data stored in the record value storage unit 131. However, these threshold values may be input from the operator.

  In the present embodiment, the approximate expression is obtained from the actual data stored in the actual value storage unit 131. However, from the user, a statistical model using the weighted air temperature as an explanatory variable and the increased inflow amount as an objective variable is used. The coefficient of the input statistical model may be estimated based on the actual data so as to be accepted. Further, the calculation formula (1) may be input from the user. In this case, the calculation formula (1) may be a model in which the increase inflow increases as the amount of snow accumulation increases and the increase inflow increases as the weighted temperature increases.

  In the present embodiment, the weighted temperature is obtained by the calculation formula (1). However, the temperature is not limited to this, and is a temperature according to the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. The lower the temperature, the lower. Therefore, it may be calculated as weighted temperature = maximum temperature + minimum temperature.

  Further, the depth of snow (snow depth) may be used instead of the amount of snow. In this case, the snow amount is simply replaced with the snow depth, and the unit of the snow amount is changed from the volume to the length.

  Although the present embodiment has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Inflow amount prediction apparatus 11 Analyzing part 111 Snow melting start maximum temperature determination part 112 Snow melting start time determination part 113 Inflow amount increase weighted temperature determination part 114 Inflow amount increase weight temperature pre-day difference determination part 115 Inflow amount increase prediction formula calculation part 12 Prediction part 121 meteorological information acquisition unit 122 atmospheric pressure arrangement input unit 123 inflow amount prediction unit 124 inflow amount prediction adjustment unit 13 storage unit 131 actual value storage unit 132 prediction information storage unit

Claims (9)

A system for predicting the amount of water flowing into a reservoir during the snowmelt season,
An inflow amount prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of the inflow amount based on a past actual value of the inflow amount;
A meteorological information acquisition unit for acquiring information including respective predicted values of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature at a point corresponding to the reservoir;
An inflow amount prediction adjustment unit that calculates a weighted temperature that is a temperature obtained by adding the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature, and increases the predicted value of the inflow amount when the weighted temperature is equal to or higher than a predetermined threshold;
An inflow rate prediction system comprising: The inflow amount prediction system according to claim 1,
The inflow prediction adjustment unit
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is below a predetermined value, the minimum temperature is the weighted temperature,
If the predicted value of the minimum temperature is greater than or equal to the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is the weighted temperature,
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is larger than the predetermined value and the predicted value of the minimum temperature is less than the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is obtained by dividing the maximum temperature by the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. Weighting the temperature, and calculating the weighted temperature by weighting the minimum temperature by a value obtained by dividing the absolute value of the minimum temperature by the range.
An inflow prediction system characterized by The inflow prediction system according to claim 1 or 2,
A performance value storage unit for storing the actual temperature values of the highest temperature and the lowest temperature of the previous day is further provided .
The inflow prediction adjustment unit calculates the weighted temperature from the actual measurement values of the highest temperature and the lowest temperature on the previous day, and when the difference between the weighted temperature on the previous day and the weighted temperature on the current day is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. Increasing the predicted amount of inflow more than if the difference is less than the predetermined value;
An inflow prediction system characterized by The inflow amount prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
A snow amount acquisition unit that acquires a predicted value of the snow amount at the point,
The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit increases the predicted value of the inflow amount when the snow amount is a predetermined value or more than when the snow amount is smaller than the predetermined value;
An inflow prediction system characterized by The inflow amount prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 4,
A winter type input unit that accepts an input as to whether or not the weather map is winter type,
An increase determination unit that determines whether the inflow amount has increased in the past based on the past inflow amount actual value or the past snow accumulation actual value;
Further comprising
The inflow amount prediction adjustment unit decreases the predicted value of the inflow amount when the weather map is a winter type and the inflow amount has increased in the past,
An inflow prediction system characterized by A method for predicting the amount of water flowing into a reservoir during the snowmelt season,
Computer
Calculate the predicted value of the inflow based on the past actual value of the inflow,
Obtain information including predicted values of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature at the point corresponding to the reservoir,
Calculating a weighted temperature that is a temperature obtained by adding the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature, and increasing the predicted value of the inflow when the weighted temperature is equal to or higher than a predetermined threshold;
An inflow rate prediction method characterized by The inflow amount prediction method according to claim 6,
The computer
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is below a predetermined value, the minimum temperature is the weighted temperature,
If the predicted value of the minimum temperature is greater than or equal to the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is the weighted temperature,
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is larger than the predetermined value and the predicted value of the minimum temperature is less than the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is obtained by dividing the maximum temperature by the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. Weighting the temperature, and calculating the weighted temperature by weighting the minimum temperature by a value obtained by dividing the absolute value of the minimum temperature by the range.
An inflow rate prediction method characterized by A program that predicts the amount of water flowing into a reservoir during the snowmelt season,
On the computer,
Calculating a predicted value of the inflow rate based on a past actual value of the inflow rate;
Obtaining information including respective predicted values of maximum temperature and minimum temperature at a point corresponding to the reservoir;
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is not more than a predetermined value, the minimum temperature is used. When the minimum temperature is not less than the predetermined value, the minimum temperature is used. Otherwise, the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature is used. The total value of the value obtained by dividing the maximum temperature by the value obtained by dividing the absolute value of the minimum temperature by the difference is calculated as a weighted temperature, and the inflow amount when the weighted temperature is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold value. Increasing the predicted value of,
A program for running The program according to claim 8, wherein
In the step of increasing the predicted value of the inflow, the computer
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is below a predetermined value, the minimum temperature is the weighted temperature,
If the predicted value of the minimum temperature is greater than or equal to the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is the weighted temperature,
When the predicted value of the maximum temperature is larger than the predetermined value and the predicted value of the minimum temperature is less than the predetermined value, the maximum temperature is obtained by dividing the maximum temperature by the difference between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. Weighting the temperature, weighting the minimum temperature by a value obtained by dividing the absolute value of the minimum temperature by the range, and calculating the weighted temperature,
A program characterized by

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