JP5380119B2 - Power supply capacity estimation apparatus for small-scale power system, power supply capacity estimation method and power capacity estimation program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention estimates the power supply capacity of a generator or the like necessary for realizing a system that performs constant control of received power and simultaneous control of the same amount while a small-scale power system (microgrid) is linked to a commercial power system. The present invention relates to a power source capacity estimation device for a small-scale power system, a power source capacity estimation method thereof, and a power source capacity estimation program.

  In recent years, from the viewpoint of CO2 reduction, etc., combined with a commercial power system supplied by general consumers, a distributed power source that can generate power by itself, or a power storage system such as a storage battery, Demonstration tests and studies are being conducted on small-scale power supply networks (hereinafter referred to as small-scale power systems) that control the amount of power generation and the amount of charge and discharge in the power storage system to maintain the power supply and demand balance.

  Distributed power sources include controllable power sources such as gas turbine generators, diesel generators, etc. that can control power generation output, and non-variable control power sources such as solar power generation, wind power generation, etc. that cannot control power generation output. The power supply is in use.

  A small-scale power system is a small-scale power system that maintains its power supply and demand balance independently without being connected to the commercial power system, and that the power flow at the connection point is constant by connecting to the commercial power system. In some cases, the balance between electricity supply and demand is maintained.

  The small-scale power system dealt with in this application is intended for the case where it is connected to the latter commercial power system. At this time, the active power passing through the interconnection point is referred to as power receiving point power.

  When a small-scale power system is linked to a commercial power system, supply / demand balance control in the small-scale power system includes constant power reception point power control and simultaneous equal amount control. Power reception point constant power control is a control that suppresses power fluctuations at the connection point for several seconds and ensures followability of watts (W), which is a unit of power, and receives the target value of power reception point constant power control. This is called a point power target value. On the other hand, the same amount control is a control for suppressing the difference between the power reception point power amount and the power reception point power target value for a certain time by the demand power amount within a predetermined range (for example, within 3%). In this control, the target value (integrated value) of watt hour (Wh), which is a unit of electric energy for every fixed time, is made constant. The target value for this simultaneous equal amount control is referred to as a power receiving point power amount target value.

  However, after completing the small-scale power system, the receiving point power constant control and the simultaneous equal amount control are performed. In the operation plan, it is necessary to determine the capacity of the distributed power source capable of variable output control such as a generator and a storage battery, and to determine the power receiving point power target value.

  In the stage of operation planning, power load prediction, electric heat load prediction, and power generation output provisional setting are performed for each set time interval of the load in the small-scale power system and the output variable control disabled power source from the past power demand record and weather forecast. The temporary setting of the power generation output is to determine an approximate plan value at the operation planning stage because the actual output command is performed in consideration of the actual power demand on the day.

  Next, taking into consideration the electric power supply and demand balance calculated from the predicted electric heat value and equipment operation constraints in a small-scale power system, etc., minimize the evaluation indices such as operating costs such as fuel costs and greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide Target values such as the power generation output of the controllable distributed power source, the charge / discharge of the power storage system, the power at the receiving point, and the like are calculated.

  Conventionally, this type of power supply and demand control system predicts thermoelectric demand and the amount of power generated by distributed power sources using natural energy, and formulates an operation plan that minimizes energy costs in consideration of the energy storage amount. Has been proposed (Patent Document 1).

  Usually, the time interval of the operation plan is generally set to be several minutes to several tens of minutes for reasons such as the amount of calculation and the accuracy of the predicted value. For example, if the operation plan is every 5 minutes, the power receiving point power target value is a constant value for 5 minutes. On the other hand, the power receiving point power amount target value is obtained by integrating the power receiving point power target value with the set time. For example, if the operation plan is every 5 minutes, the power receiving point power target value every 5 minutes is taken over 5 minutes. The result of time integration is the power receiving point power amount target value. Therefore, in the operation plan, optimize the operating cost and greenhouse gas emissions by making the receiving point power follow the receiving point power target value and making the receiving point power amount follow the receiving point power amount target value. Can do.

  In short, if power receiving point power constant control or simultaneous same amount control that makes receiving point power and receiving point power follow the target value can be implemented, commercial power system by variable output of distributed variable power supply in a small scale power system Can be avoided, and can be optimally operated in terms of cost and environmental impact in a small-scale power system.

JP 2005-86953 A

  By the way, as mentioned above, when receiving point power constant control and simultaneous same amount control are performed, variable output power control such as gas turbine generators and diesel engine generators and equipment capable of output control such as storage batteries are required. It becomes. In general, the larger the equipment capacity, the easier the control, but the higher the cost.

  In addition, a simulation model that simulates a small-scale power system, supply and demand control, constant receiving point power control, and simultaneous equal amount control makes it possible to select the required equipment capacity and eventually the required generator. However, there is a problem that takes a lot of labor and labor.

  Therefore, in consideration of economy, it is important to estimate the required power capacity of the power supply equipment in order to accurately perform the constant power reception point power control and the simultaneous same amount control with the minimum capacity.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and in order to accurately perform power receiving point power constant control and simultaneous equal amount control, the required power capacity of power supply equipment required in a small-scale power system is simply estimated. It is an object of the present invention to provide a power source capacity estimation device, a power source capacity estimation method, and a power capacity estimation program for a small-scale power system.

(1) In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is a small-scale electric power that is connected to a commercial power system and supplies the power from the commercial power system and the power generation output of the distributed power source to a load facility that is a customer facility. A small-scale power system that estimates the required power capacity of a variable distributed power source that can control the output of the small-scale power system in order to balance power supply and demand by implementing constant power reception point control and simultaneous equal amount control for the system. A power capacity estimation device of
Storage means storing power demand actual data before the current time and at least power demand prediction results to be supplied to the load equipment predicted from temperature and weather; and the power demand actual data in a predetermined period> power demand prediction results; The maximum demand error and the average error are calculated separately for the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result (see formulas 12 and 13 described later), and the power demand prediction error correction capacity (the formulas 15a and 15 described later), respectively. 15b to 17a and 17b), the power demand actual data in a predetermined period> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result. Obtain the maximum power demand data difference maximum value from the absolute value of the difference between the actual power demand data start point and end point value for each control period of the same amount control within the period. (See formulas 8b, 16 and 18 to be described later), a fluctuation capacity calculation means for obtaining a required capacity for the maximum fluctuation of power demand, the power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data <the power demand Using the maximum demand error, the average error, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value separately from the prediction result, the necessity of a control distributed power source capable of variable output based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (19a to 19d described later) and provisional required power capacity estimation means for estimating the power capacity, the capacity from the required power capacity was determined using the average error and the great need power capacity of the capacitor from the required power capacity was determined using the maximum demand error Required power capacity (see formulas 20a and 20b to be described later), a capacity margin determined from the capacity lower limit value of the output-variable control distributed power supply and protection and durability of power supply facilities (described later) 21 to Equation 23), and a final required power source capacity estimating means for estimating a required power source capacity (see Equations 24 to 27 described later) as a final solution to which the maximum demand error and the average error are applied. It is.

(2) The present invention is connected to a commercial power system, and for a small-scale power system that supplies power from the commercial power system and power generation output of a distributed power source to a load facility, constant power reception point power control and simultaneous A power capacity estimation method for a small-scale power system that estimates the required power capacity of the distributed power supply of the small-scale power system in order to balance the power supply and demand by performing quantity control,
An input unit that inputs a control instruction, a first storage unit that stores actual power demand data before the current time, and a power demand prediction result that is supplied to the load equipment after the current time from at least temperature and weather, and a CPU A power capacity estimation processing unit,
When the power capacity estimation processing unit receives a control instruction for power capacity estimation from the input unit, the power capacity estimation processing unit retrieves power demand actual data and power demand prediction results for a predetermined period from the storage unit, and the power demand actual data> power The maximum demand error and the average error are calculated by dividing the demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result (the following formulas 12 and 13), respectively, and the power demand prediction error correction capacity (the following formula 15a, After calculating the correction capacity calculating step for obtaining Equations 15b to 17a, Equation 17b), and the difference between the values of the start point and the end point of the actual power demand data for each control period of the same amount control within a predetermined period, The difference between the power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result among the differences, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value that is the maximum value. Fluctuation capacity calculation step for obtaining required capacity (maximum power demand fluctuation required amount (formulas 8b, 16 and 18 described later)), the actual power demand data> the power demand prediction result, and the actual power demand data <the power demand prediction Using the maximum demand error, the average error, and the actual power demand actual data difference maximum value separately based on the result, it is necessary to control the distributed power source capable of variable output based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (Expression 19a to Expression 19d below) Temporary required power capacity estimation step for estimating power capacity and a required power capacity with a large capacity selected from the required power capacity determined using the maximum demand error, and the required power determined using the average error A necessary power source capacity selection step for selecting a large necessary power source capacity from among the capacities (formula 20a and 20b described later), and a necessary power capacity and a small-scale power for each selected large capacity Estimate the final required power capacity applying the maximum demand error and the final required power capacity applying the average error from the lower limit of the capacity of the controllable distributed power supply and the capacity margin determined from the protection and durability of the power supply equipment And a final required power capacity estimation step (formula 24 to formula 27 below).

  The series of processes of the power capacity estimation method for the small-scale power system described in (2) above is defined as program data, and similarly estimated by the computer to read the final required power capacity of the power equipment. Is possible.

  In addition to the control variable power supply with variable output in addition to the variable output controllable power supply in the small-scale power system, a prediction error regarding the variable power supply with controllable output cannot be calculated. By adding to the provisional required power supply capacity, it is also possible to estimate the final required power supply capacity in consideration of the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply.

  According to the present invention, the power supply capacity of a small-scale power system that can easily estimate the required facility capacity of the power supply facility required in a small-scale power system in order to accurately perform constant power reception point power control and simultaneous equal amount control. An estimation apparatus, a power capacity estimation method thereof, and a power capacity estimation program can be provided.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS The block diagram which shows 1st Embodiment of the power supply capacity estimation apparatus of the small scale electric power system which concerns on this invention. The flowchart explaining the flow of the process (a program process is included) by the operation | movement of 1st Embodiment in the power supply capacity estimation apparatus of the small-scale electric power system which concerns on this invention, and its power supply capacity estimation method. The general block diagram of the small-scale electric power system provided with the function for implementing receiving power constant power control and simultaneous same amount control. The figure which shows the function structure of a supply-and-demand control system. The figure explaining the case where the power demand actual data for explaining the long-term power demand processing part of the supply-demand control system shown in FIG. The figure explaining the example which calculates the receiving point power target value performed in the receiving point power target value calculation process part of the supply-and-demand control system shown in FIG. The figure explaining the example with which electric power demand actual data and electric power demand prediction results, such as the next day, correspond. The figure explaining the case where the power demand actual data and the power demand prediction result such as the next day are the actual demand <the prediction result. The block diagram which shows 2nd Embodiment of the power supply capacity estimation apparatus of the small scale electric power system which concerns on this invention. The flowchart explaining the flow of the process (a program process is included) by the operation | movement of 2nd Embodiment in the power supply capacity estimation apparatus of the small-scale electric power system which concerns on this invention, and its power supply capacity estimation method. In general, small-scale power systems that estimate required equipment capacity in consideration of the case of connecting variable power sources that are difficult to control, such as photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation, in addition to variable power sources that can control output, in parallel. Diagram. The figure which shows the function structure of a supply-and-demand control system.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a first embodiment of a power source capacity estimating apparatus for a small-scale power system according to the present invention.

  The power supply capacity estimation device for a small-scale power system includes an input unit 1 such as a keyboard and pointing device for inputting necessary data and control instructions by an operator, past actual power demand data 36 of load equipment, and weather such as temperature and weather. Database 2 that extracts and stores the next day power demand prediction result 23 for the load facility predicted from the data, and setting data that stores various arithmetic expressions and setting data for estimating the required power capacity of the small-scale power system The memory 21 is composed of a power source capacity estimation processing unit 3 constituted by a CPU and a display unit 4.

  Various arithmetic expressions and necessary data for estimating the required power capacity of the small-scale power system are stored in the setting data memory 21, but may be stored in the database 2 instead of the setting data memory 21. Good. The series of processes for estimating the required power capacity of the small-scale power system can be performed in advance according to the program data. In this case, a program memory 22 for newly executing the series of processes is provided. The configuration is provided.

  The power source capacity estimation processing unit 3 is a customer facility that is connected to a commercial power system and generates power from the commercial power system and the power generation output of the distributed power facility as will be described in detail with reference to FIG. In order to implement constant power receiving point power control and simultaneous equal amount control for a small-scale power system supplied to a load facility, the required power capacity of the distributed power facility of the small-scale power system is estimated, Functionally, it includes correction capacity calculation means 3A, variable capacity calculation means 3B, provisional required power supply capacity estimation means 3C, and final required power supply capacity estimation means 3D.

  The correction capacity calculation means 3A takes out the power demand actual data 36 and the power demand prediction result 23 for a predetermined period (for example, 24 hours a day) from the database 2 in accordance with a read instruction from the input unit 1, and calculates the actual power demand for the predetermined period. From the data 36 and the power demand prediction result 23, the maximum demand error and the average error are divided into the case of the power demand actual data 36> the power demand prediction result 23 and the case of the power demand actual data 36 <the power demand prediction result 23. It has a function of calculating (see formulas 12 and 13 described later) and setting the power demand prediction error correction capacity (see formulas 15a, 15b to 17a, and formula 17b described later).

  The fluctuating capacity calculation means 3B calculates the actual power demand data 36> the power demand prediction result from the absolute value of the difference between the values of the start point and the end point of the actual power demand data 36 in the control period of the same amount control within the predetermined period. The power demand actual data difference maximum value is acquired separately for the case of 23 and the case of the power demand actual data 36 <the power demand forecast result 23, and the required capacity for the power demand maximum fluctuation (formula 8b, formula 16, formula 18 described later) Function).

  The temporary required power capacity estimation means 3C is divided into the case of the power demand actual data 36> the power demand prediction result 23 and the case of the power demand actual data 36 <the power demand prediction result 23, and the maximum demand error, the average error and Using the power demand actual data maximum difference value, it has a function of estimating the required power capacity (see formulas 19a to 19d to be described later) of the output variable controllable distributed power facility based on a predetermined arithmetic expression.

  The final required power capacity estimation means 3D has a large required power capacity determined using the maximum demand error, a large required power capacity determined using the average error (see formulas 20a and 20b described later) and a small required power capacity. The power supply to which the maximum demand error is applied from the capacity upper limit value and the capacity lower limit value of the controllable distributed power supply facility of the scale power system and the capacity margin (see Equations 21 to 23 below) determined from the protection and durability of the power supply facility It has a function of estimating the final required power supply capacity (see formulas 24 to 27 below) from the final required power supply capacity as the equipment capacity and the power supply equipment capacity to which the average error is applied.

  Next, the operation of the power source capacity estimating apparatus for a small-scale power system as described above or the power source capacity estimating method of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

  First, for a small-scale power system with a load facility that is a customer facility, a distributed power source that can generate power by itself, and a distributed power source system that can be charged and discharged, etc. In order to carry out the control, in addition to the past actual power demand data 36 by the load facility, the power demand forecast result 23 for the next day, etc. is obtained from the weather forecast data related to temperature, weather, etc., and basic data for power source capacity estimation is obtained. , Stored in database 2.

  In the above state, when a control instruction for power source capacity estimation is received from the input unit 1 (S1), the power source capacity estimation processing unit 3 executes the correction capacity calculation means 3A.

  The correction capacity calculation means 3A takes out the power demand actual data 36 and the power demand prediction result 23 for a predetermined period (for example, 24 hours a day) from the database 2 in accordance with a read instruction from the input unit 1, and calculates the actual power demand for the predetermined period. From the data 36 and the power demand prediction result 23, the maximum demand error and the average error are divided into the case of the power demand actual data 36> the power demand prediction result 23 and the case of the power demand actual data 36 <the power demand prediction result 23. Calculation (see formulas 12 and 13 to be described later) and processing for obtaining the power demand prediction error correction capacity (see formulas 15a, 15b to 17a and 17b, which will be described later) (S2: correction capacity calculation step) .

  Subsequently, the power source capacity estimation processing unit 3 executes the variable capacity calculation means 3B. The fluctuating capacity calculation means 3B obtains a difference between the starting point value and the ending point value of the actual power demand data 36 for each control period of the simultaneous same amount control within a predetermined period (S3), and the actual power demand data 36 from these differences. > In the case of the power demand prediction result 23 and the case of the power demand actual data 36 <the case of the power demand prediction result 23, the maximum power demand actual data difference maximum value is extracted, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value = power The required capacity for the maximum demand fluctuation (see formula 8b, formula 16, and formula 18 described later) is calculated (S4). Steps S3 and S4 correspond to a variable capacity calculation step.

  Thereafter, the power supply capacity estimation processing unit 3 executes provisional necessary power supply capacity estimation means 3C. The temporary required power capacity estimating means 3C is a power demand based on power demand prediction error correction capacity + power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity = required power capacity (refer to formula 44 described later), which is setting data predetermined in the setting data memory 21. Actual data> Electric power demand prediction results and electric power demand actual data <Electric power demand prediction results, using the maximum demand error, average error, and maximum electric power actual data difference maximum value, based on a predetermined arithmetic expression After estimating the required power supply capacity of the control-distributed power supply equipment with variable output (see formulas 19a to 19d described later) (S5: provisional required power supply capacity estimation step), the final required power supply capacity estimation means 3D is executed.

  The final required power capacity estimating means 3D selects a required power capacity having a large capacity from the required power capacity determined using the maximum demand error, and includes the required power capacity determined using the average error. The required power capacity with a large capacity is selected from the following (see formulas 20a and 20b below) (S6: required power capacity selection step), and the required power capacity of each selected large capacity and the output variable control of the small power system The final required power supply capacity that is the power supply equipment capacity to which the maximum demand error is applied, from the capacity upper limit value and capacity lower limit value of the distributed power supply equipment and the capacity margin determined from the power supply equipment protection / durability (see Equations 21 to 23 below) The final required power supply capacity (see formulas 24 to 27 below) is estimated based on the power supply equipment capacity to which the average error is applied (S7: final required power supply capacity estimation step).

  Note that the flow of a series of processes according to the power supply capacity estimation method as described above is defined as a software flow by prescribing the flow of a series of processes in the program memory 22 and reading it into the CPU that is the power supply capacity estimation processing unit 3. Can also be processed.

  The power source capacity estimation apparatus according to the present invention estimates the required power capacity of a generator of a distributed power source facility to perform constant power reception point power control and simultaneous equal amount control for a small-scale power system. In the following, we will demonstrate the basis for the fact that the final required installed capacity, which is the estimation result, is accurate, using a real small-scale power grid that is linked to the commercial power grid. .

(1) Demonstration example of estimating the required installed capacity using an actual small-scale power system.

(1-1) FIG. 3 is a general configuration diagram of a small-scale power system having a function for performing constant power reception point power control and simultaneous equal amount control.

  The small-scale power system 5 is connected to the commercial power system 6 through the connection line 7. The small-scale power system 5 includes a load facility 8 that is a customer facility, a distributed power source that can generate power by itself, and a power that can be charged and discharged. A power supply facility (variable output controllable power source) 9 comprising a storage system or the like is provided, and the commercial power 12 from the commercial power system 6 and the power facility power 10 obtained from the power facility 9 in the small-scale power system 5 are load facilities. 8 is supplied.

Here, the required power capacity X of the small-scale power system 5 to be estimated according to the present invention is obtained by using the small-scale power system result data of the small-scale power system 5 as a function.
Required power capacity X = f (small-scale power system result data) (1)
It is possible to calculate by

If the power supplied to the load facility 8 is the power demand 11, the relationship of the formula (2) is established between the power supply facility power 10, the power demand 11, and the commercial power 12 if the power loss is ignored. To do.
Electric power demand 11 = commercial power 12 + power supply facility power 10 (2)
By the way, in the small scale electric power system 5, the supply / demand control system 13 and the simultaneous equal amount control system 14 which perform control called supply / demand control are usually provided.

  The demand control in the supply and demand control system 13 is different between the case where the economy is emphasized and the case where the simultaneous same amount control mode is performed. In the case of emphasis on economy, commercial power 12 and power demand 11 are inputted, and the operation command value that can be most economical is calculated and sent to the power supply facility 9. The invention of the present application implements the same amount control simultaneously. Therefore, the simultaneous and same amount control mode will be described below.

  In the simultaneous and same amount control mode, the supply and demand control system 13 uses a target value of the commercial power 12 (hereinafter referred to as a power receiving point power target) that allows simultaneous and same amount control from power data such as the commercial power 12 and the power demand 11. The value 15) is obtained and sent to the simultaneous same amount control system 14. When it is not a reverse power flow, the commercial power 12 becomes the power that flows through the interconnection line 7 to the power receiving point.

  The simultaneous equal amount control system 14 calculates a power generation command value 16 based on the power receiving point power target value 15 and controls the power generation output of the power supply facility 9 based on the power generation command value 16.

(1-2) The supply and demand control system 13 added to the small-scale power system 5 will be specifically described with reference to FIGS. 4 to 6.
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a functional configuration of the supply and demand control system 13. Functionally, the supply and demand control system 13 includes a long-term power demand prediction processing unit 18 and a power receiving point power target value calculation processing unit 19.

  The long-term power demand prediction processing unit 18 stores the power demand 11 stored in the power demand database 20 before the current time (hereinafter referred to as power demand stored data 21) and the weather prediction data related to the temperature and weather after the current time. 22, for example, the next day power demand is predicted and output as the next day power demand prediction result 23.

  The power receiving point power target value calculation processing unit 19 receives the power receiving point from the power facility capacity 25 of the power facility 9 that can be paralleled to the small power system 5 that can be used the next day from the power facility database 24 based on the next power demand prediction result 23. The power target value 15 is calculated.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating the long-term power demand prediction processing unit 18. In this figure, the vertical axis represents power (unit: kW, for example), the horizontal axis represents time t for one day, and the long-term power demand prediction processing unit 18 predicts the power demand forecast result 23 (dotted line) for the next day. This is an example representing the actual data of the power demand 11 (hereinafter referred to as the actual power demand data 36 (solid line)) having the same time period (date and time) accumulated in the power demand database 20 and the same weather conditions.

As a result, an error usually occurs between the power demand prediction result 23 such as the next day and the actual power demand data 36. At this time, the maximum value of the error is the maximum demand error 37, and the average value of the error is the average demand error. 38 and obtained from the following equations (4) and (5).
Maximum demand error 37 = max [Electric power demand actual data i36−Electric power demand forecast result i23 such as next day]
(I = i0, iN; i0: initial value of sampling, iN: final value of sampling)
...... (4)
Average demand error 38 = aver [actual power demand data i36-next day power demand forecast result i23]
(I = i0, iN; i0: initial value of sampling, iN: final value of sampling)
...... (5)
Here, the actual power demand data i36 is the i-th sampling data of the actual power demand data 36, and the next-day power demand prediction result i23 is the i-th sampling data of the next-day power demand prediction result 23. In addition, the sampling cycle of supply and demand control is set to 1 minute, for example. Further, max [data A] indicates the maximum value of data A, and aver [data B] indicates the average value of data B for 24 hours a day.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an example of calculating the power receiving point power target value 15 performed by the power receiving point power target value calculation processing unit 19.

  When performing the same amount control at the same time, the power receiving point power target value 15 is calculated for every predetermined amount control period T1. It can be seen that the power receiving point power target value 15 changes in a stepped manner for each simultaneous equal amount control period T1, as shown in FIG. This is because there is a power output upper limit value and a power output lower limit value because the power supply facility capacity 25 of the power supply facility 9 has a power output limit due to its capacity, etc., and these are respectively the power supply facility capacity upper limit value 26 and the power supply facility capacity lower limit value. 27.

  Here, the calculation formula of the power receiving point power target value 15 is shown in the formula (2). However, if the power demand 11 is replaced with the power demand prediction result 23 such as the next day, and the commercial power 12 is replaced with the power receiving point power target value 15, respectively. Equation (2) can be replaced with Equation (6).

Next-day power demand forecast result 23 = reception point power target value 15 + power supply facility power 10 (6)
The power supply facility power 10 can be adjusted only between the power supply facility capacity upper limit value 26 and the power supply facility capacity lower limit value 27, and the power supply facility power 10 and the power supply facility capacity upper limit value 26 and the power It is necessary to determine the power receiving point power target value 15 so as to fall between the equipment capacity lower limit value 27.

  By the way, if a value from the power supply facility capacity upper limit value 26 to the power supply facility capacity lower limit value 27 is defined as the power supply facility variable control range 28, the larger the power supply facility variable control range 28 is, the larger the power supply facility variable control range 28 is. It can be seen that the change in value 15 is small. This is because even if there is a large change in the power demand forecast result 23 such as the next day every simultaneous control period T1, the change width can be absorbed by the output adjustment within the power supply facility variable control range 28 of the power supply facility power 10, and the remaining power is received. This is because there is no need to change the point power target value 15.

  On the contrary, if the power supply facility variable control range 28 is small, it is necessary to constantly change the power receiving point power target value 15 for every simultaneous equal amount control cycle T1.

  Furthermore, when performing the same amount control, if the fluctuation of the actual power demand data 36 is larger than the power facility variable control range 28, it becomes difficult to absorb the fluctuation by the same amount control. The same amount control becomes difficult or impossible.

(1-3) The simultaneous same amount control system 14 shown in FIG. 3 added to the small-scale power system 5 will be described.
In the supply and demand control system 13, when the power receiving point power target value 15 for each simultaneous equal amount control cycle T1 is determined, in the simultaneous same amount control system 14, the power receiving point power target value 15 for each simultaneous same amount control cycle T2 section. Assuming that the integral value is the power receiving point power amount target value 29 and the integral value of the actual power receiving point power 30 for each simultaneous equal amount control cycle T2 section is the actual power receiving point power amount 31, actual power reception is performed every simultaneous same amount control cycle T2 section. A power generation command value 16 such that the point power amount 31 matches the power reception point power amount target value 29 is calculated and set as a power generation command value 16 to the power supply facility 9.

When evaluating the accuracy of the simultaneous equal amount control, the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy evaluation formula for obtaining the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy 33 shown in the equation (7a) is generally used.
Simultaneous same amount control accuracy 33 = (actual receiving point power amount 31−receiving point power amount target value 29) ÷ actual power demand integrated value 34 (7a)
Here, the actual power demand integrated value 34 is an integrated value of the actual power demand data 36 for each section of the simultaneous equal amount control period T2.

(A) Description of the power supply facility capacity 25 for the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy 33 to satisfy the specified value: the relationship between the change in the actual power demand data 36 and the power supply facility capacity 25.

  Here, the power supply facility capacity 25 for the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy 33 to satisfy the specified value is examined. First, for the sake of simplicity, a case will be considered in which the prediction error 45 shown in Expression (7b) is zero if the next-day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36 coincide completely.

Prediction error 45 = power demand actual data 36-next day etc. power demand forecast result 23 ... (7b)
FIG. 7 shows an example in which the prediction error 45 is zero in FIG. 6, that is, the next day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36 match.

Therefore, in this case, the above-described equation (6) can be replaced with the following equation (8a).
Power demand actual data 36 = reception point power target value 15 + power supply facility power 10 (8a)
That is, what can be said from this equation (8a) is that the power receiving facility power 10 is determined in order to absorb the change in the actual power demand data 36 because the power receiving point power target value 15 is determined by the supply and demand control system 13. It needs to be adjusted.

  Generally, not only the actual power demand data 36 is different for each simultaneous same amount control cycle T2 section, but also the actual power demand data 36 at the start point of the simultaneous same amount control period T2 section (hereinafter referred to as the start power demand actual data 36sta). This is also different from the actual power demand data 36 at the end point of the simultaneous same amount control period T2 (hereinafter referred to as the actual end power demand data 36end). There may be a maximum value and a minimum value between the actual power demand data 36end and the actual power demand data 36sta, but at least the difference between the actual power demand data 36end and the actual power demand data 36sta (hereinafter referred to as the actual power demand data). The output of the data difference 43) needs to be adjusted with the power supply facility power 10.

  In consideration of the case where the maximum value and the minimum value are between the end point power demand actual data 36end and the start point power demand actual data 36sta, all the same amount control periods T2 in the actual power demand data 36 for one day are considered. It is necessary to calculate the power demand actual data difference 43 that is the difference between the value of the start point and the end point of the power demand actual data 36 at each time interval, and to perform output adjustment corresponding to the power demand actual data difference 43 in the power supply facility power 10. is there.

  Accordingly, at least the maximum value of the absolute value of the power demand actual data difference 43 (hereinafter referred to as the power demand actual data difference maximum value 48) needs to be adjusted by the power facility power 10, so that the power facility capacity 25 Need to have an output adjustable capacity. For this reason, the capacity capable of adjusting the maximum output is set as the required capacity 44 for the power demand maximum fluctuation.

  The power demand actual data difference maximum value 48 is either plus or minus, but here, if only the plus side is considered, the following equation is obtained.

Power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 = power demand actual data difference maximum value 48 (8b)
(B) Description of the power supply facility capacity 25 for the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy 33 to satisfy the specified value: the relationship between the prediction error 45 and the power supply facility capacity 25.
As shown in FIG. 6, if there is an error between the next day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36, the power supply facility capacity 25 needs to have a capacity for absorbing this error. . This required capacity is referred to as a power demand prediction error correction capacity 46.

  This point will be described using Equation (6) and Equation (8a). In the supply and demand control system 13, the power receiving point power target value 15 is determined using the power demand prediction result 23 such as the next day. However, in the simultaneous equal amount control system 14, as shown in the equation (8a), the power supply facility power 10 is obtained using the power receiving point power target value 15 and the actual power demand data 36.

  As a result, when there is no prediction error 45, the next-day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36 are equal, and the power supply facility power 10 of equation (6) and the power supply facility power 10 of equation (8a) are equal. Become.

  On the other hand, when there is a prediction error 45, the next-day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36 are different, so that the power supply facility power 10 in Expression (6) and the power supply facility power 10 in Expression (8a) are different. That is, the relationship of the following formula (8c) is established.

Power supply facility power 10 in equation (8a) = Power supply facility power 10 in equation (6) + Prediction error 45 (8c)
When there is a prediction error 45, there are the following two cases between the actual power demand data 36 and the next day power demand forecast result 23.

Actual power demand data 36> Next day power demand forecast result 23 (hereinafter referred to as actual demand> forecast result case 55) (9a)
Actual power demand data 36 <Next day power demand forecast result 23 (hereinafter referred to as actual demand <forecast case 56) (9b)
In the case of actual demand> prediction result 55, the prediction error 45> 0, so from equation (8c)
Power supply facility power 10 of formula (6)> Power supply power 10 of formula (8a) (10a)
It becomes.

Further, in the case of actual demand <prediction result 56, since the prediction error 45 <0, the equation (8c)
Power supply facility power 10 in equation (6) <Power supply facility power 10 in equation (8a) (10b)
It becomes.

  That is, as shown in the equation (7b), since the prediction error 45 = the actual power demand data 36−the next day power demand forecast result 23, in the case 55 where the actual demand is greater than the forecast result, the power source is calculated from the formula (10a). Since the facility power 10 increases, the power source facility 9 needs to have a power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 that is a capacity for absorbing the increase.

The power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 becomes the prediction error 45 from the equations (8a), (7b), and (6). The reason is,
Power supply facility power 10 in equation (8a) = power supply facility power 10 in equation (6) + power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 (9c)
Then, from equation (7b)
This is because the prediction error 45 = equation (8a) −equation (6) = power demand prediction error correction capacity 46. In addition, when the expressions (6) and (8a) are re-displayed,
Next-day power demand forecast result 23 = reception point power target value 15 + power supply facility power 10 (6)
Power demand actual data 36 = reception point power target value 15 + power supply facility power 10 (8a)
It becomes.

  As described above, the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 is a capacity necessary to absorb the prediction error 45. As a calculation method thereof, a method of obtaining from the maximum demand error 37 shown in the equation (4), A method of obtaining from the average demand error 38 shown in Equation (5) is conceivable.

* Method to obtain from maximum demand error 37 (referred to as method 1)
This method 1 is a method for obtaining the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 from the maximum demand error 37 by the following equation (10c).
Electricity demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = maximum demand error 37 (10c)
Advantages: When the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 is obtained from the maximum demand error 37, the prediction error 45 is all absorbed and the capacity does not become insufficient.
Disadvantages: Since the simultaneous equal amount control accuracy 33 is expressed by an equation using an integral value for each interval of the simultaneous equal amount control period T2 in the equation (7), the maximum demand error 37 is always set during the simultaneous equal amount control period T2 interval. A corresponding prediction error 45 is rarely generated, and an excessive capacity may be considered.

* Method to obtain from average demand error 38 (referred to as method 2)
This method 1 is a method for obtaining the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 from the average demand error 38 by the following equation (10d).
Electricity demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = average demand error 38 (10d)
Advantages: The prediction error 45 increases or decreases in the same period control period T2 interval, and it is considered that the capacity is not excessive or insufficient when the average value is taken.
Disadvantages: When the prediction error 45 corresponding to the maximum demand error 37 always occurs in the simultaneous same amount control period T2 section, there may be a case where the capacity becomes insufficient.

  Since these methods 1 and 2 have advantages and disadvantages, respectively, when obtaining the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46, it is necessary to always consider two methods.

(1-4) Necessary power capacity of the controllable distributed power supply with variable output in the small-scale power system 5.

  As described above, when the actual power demand data 36 and the next day power demand prediction result 23 are different, a prediction error 45 occurs, and the output of the power supply facility power 10 needs to be adjusted accordingly. As a result, the power supply facility 9 needs to have a power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 in order to absorb the increase / decrease adjustment amount of the power supply facility power 10. Further, at least the actual power demand data difference 43 among the actual power demand data difference 43 which is the difference between the start point and end point values of the actual power demand data 36 for every time interval of the simultaneous same amount control period T1 during the day. For the power demand actual data difference maximum value which is the maximum value of the absolute value of 43, it is necessary to adjust the output of the power supply facility power 10, and therefore, the required capacity 44 for the maximum power demand fluctuation that can be adjusted to the maximum output is required. is there.

  Therefore, the required power capacity X based on the following equation is required as the variable output controllable power supply equipment to be installed when the small-scale power system 5 is constructed.

Required power capacity X = Power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + Required capacity 44 for maximum power demand fluctuation
... (11)
By the way, the actual demand> prediction case 55 has been mainly described so far. However, for example, as shown in FIG. In this case, the maximum demand error 37 needs to take a negative maximum value.

Therefore, if the maximum demand error 37 which is the maximum value on the minus side is the maximum demand error m47, it can be defined by Expression (12).
Maximum demand error m47 = max [next day power demand error prediction result i23−power demand actual data i36] (12)
Similarly, if the maximum demand error 37, which is the maximum value on the plus side, is the maximum demand error p50, it can be defined by equation (13).
Maximum demand error p50 = max [Electric power demand actual data i36−Electric power demand error prediction result i23 such as next day] (13)
Also, the maximum power demand data difference value 48 shown in the equation (8b) also has a sign on the plus side and the minus side, so the plus side maximum value and the minus side maximum value are distinguished, and the plus side power demand actual value Assuming that the maximum data difference value is p49 and the negative power demand actual data difference maximum value is m51, they can be defined by equations (13A) and (13B), respectively.

Power demand actual data difference maximum value p49 = max (power demand actual data difference 43) (13A)
Power demand actual data difference maximum value m51 = min (power demand actual data difference 43) (13B)
Therefore, it is as follows when the actual demand> the predicted result case 55 and the actual demand <the predicted result case 56 are divided.
* Actual demand> Case 55 of the prediction result The power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 in the method 1 is expressed by the following equation (15a) using the equation (13), and in the case of the method 2, from the equation (10d) It is represented by the following formula (15b).
Electricity demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = maximum demand error p50 (15a)
Or, power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = average demand error 38 (15b)
Power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 = power demand actual data difference maximum value p49 (16)
* In the case of actual demand <forecast case 56 The power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 in the method 1 is expressed by the following equation (17a), and in the case of the method 2, it is expressed by the following equation (17b).
Electricity demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = maximum demand error m52 (17a)
Electric power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 = average demand error 38 (17b)
Electric power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 = power demand actual data difference maximum value m51 (18)
Therefore, from these relational expressions, the necessary power source capacity X shown in Expression (11) is expressed by Expression (19a) and Expression (19b).

* Actual demand> Case 55 of forecast results Application of method 1 (method obtained from maximum demand error 37)
Required power capacity X = Power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + Required capacity 44 for maximum power demand fluctuation
= Maximum demand error p50 + power demand actual data difference maximum value p49
= Required power capacity pa53 (19a)
Application of Method 2 (method obtained from average demand error 38)
Required power capacity X = Power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + Required capacity 44 for maximum power demand fluctuation
= Average demand error 38 + power demand actual data difference maximum value p49
= Required power supply capacity pb54 (19b)
* In the case of actual demand <forecast case 56 In this case, the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 and the power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 are usually negative, and therefore take absolute values.

Application of method 1 (method obtained from maximum demand error 37)
Required power capacity X = abs (power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44) = abs (maximum demand error m52 + power demand actual data difference maximum value m51) = required power capacity ma57 (19c)
Application of Method 2 (method obtained from average demand error 38)
Required power capacity X = abs (power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44) = abs (average demand error 38 + power demand actual data difference maximum value m51) = required power capacity mb58 (19d)
In the above equation, the function abs (x) indicates the absolute value of the argument x.
Therefore, the required power supply capacity X is determined by the required power supply capacity pa53, pb54, ma57, mb58 in the equations (19a) to (19d) according to the size of the actual demand and the prediction result and the application of the methods 1 and 2. Desired.

By the way, the required power supply capacity X is expressed by Equation (20a) in consideration of the need for a larger capacity among the required power supply capacity pa53 and ma57 obtained by the application of Method 1 described above. Of the necessary power source capacities pb54 and mb58 obtained by the above, equation (20b) is obtained when considering the one requiring a larger capacity.
Method 1 → Required power supply capacity X = max [Required power supply capacity pa53, Required power supply capacity ma57]
... (20a)
Method 2 → Required power supply capacity X = max [Required power supply capacity pb54, Required power supply capacity mb58]
... (20b)
Next, the capacity upper limit value 26 and the capacity lower limit value 27 of the power supply equipment are considered.
Power supply capacity output variable value 59 = Power supply capacity upper limit 26-Power supply capacity lower limit 27
... (21)
Then, the necessary power supply capacity X is usually larger than the power supply facility capacity output variable value 59.
Power supply capacity upper limit 26 = Power supply capacity output variable value 59 + Power supply capacity lower limit 27
... (22)
It becomes.

As the power supply facility capacity 25, the power supply facility capacity upper limit value 26 may be constructed with some margin in consideration of equipment protection (safety), durability, and the like. For example, a margin is added to Expression (22), and the following Expression (23) is obtained.
Power supply capacity 25 = Power supply capacity upper limit 26 + Capacity margin 60
= Power supply capacity output variable value 59 + Power supply capacity lower limit 27 + Capacity margin 60 (23)
Furthermore, since the required power capacity X of the above equations (20a) and (20b) is considered to correspond to the power supply facility capacity output variable value 59 in the equation (23), the power supply facility capacity of the equation (23) Substituting the required power capacity X of the equation (20a) into the output variable value 59 yields the equations (24) and (25).

Method 1 → Power supply capacity 25 = max [Required power capacity pa53, Required power capacity ma57] + Power supply capacity lower limit 27 + Capacity margin 60 (24)
Method 2 → Power supply capacity 25 = max [Required power capacity pb54, Required power capacity mb58] + Power supply capacity lower limit 27 + Capacity margin 60 (25)
It becomes.

  Accordingly, the required power supply capacity to be finally obtained is the power supply facility capacity 25 represented by the equations (24) and (25). If these are the final required power supply capacity 61 and the final required power supply capacity 62, respectively, 24) and Expression (25) become the following Expression (26) and Expression (27), which are the final solutions of the necessary power supply capacity estimated by the power supply capacity estimation device for the small-scale power system according to the present invention.

Method 1 → final required power supply capacity 61 = max [required power supply capacity pa53, required power supply capacity ma57] + power supply facility capacity lower limit 27 + capacity margin 60 (26)
Method 2 → final required power capacity 62 = max [necessary power capacity pb54, required power capacity mb58] + power supply capacity lower limit 27 + capacity margin 60 (27)
Therefore, according to the embodiment as described above, the actual power demand data over a predetermined period using the actual power demand data before the present time and the predicted power demand supplied to the load facility 8 predicted from the temperature, weather, and the like. > The power demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <power demand prediction result are divided into the maximum demand error and average error, and the power demand prediction error correction capacity is calculated. The required capacity for the maximum power demand fluctuation is calculated from the absolute value of the difference between the start point and end point values of the actual power demand data for each control cycle, and the output can be varied based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (19a to 19d described later). Estimate the required power capacity of the control distributed power source, and further consider the capacity margin, etc., and easily output based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (19a to 19d described later). It is possible to estimate the capacity.

(Second Embodiment)
FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a second embodiment of a power source capacity estimating apparatus for a small-scale power system according to the present invention. In the figure, parts that are the same as or equivalent to those in FIG.

  In the second embodiment, a particularly different point is that, as shown in FIG. 11, in addition to the control distributed power supply 9A that can output variable in the small-scale power system 5, it is difficult to control output such as solar power generation or wind power generation. Since the control distributed power supply 9B is provided in parallel, the required power capacity of the power supply facility 9 is estimated in consideration of the prediction error related to the output variable control non-control distributed power supply 9B.

  The power source capacity estimation device for the small-scale power system newly adds the actual output result of the output variable non-controllable distributed power source 9B to the database 2 (hereinafter, the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data 68 and the output variable non-controllable distributed power source). The output variable non-controllable distributed power output prediction result 65 that is a long-term prediction result after the next day of 9B is stored.

  Further, the power capacity estimation processing unit 3 newly reads the output variable non-controllable distributed power actual output data stored in the database 2 and the next day or the like output variable non-controllable distributed power output prediction result, and the output variable cannot be controlled in a predetermined period. Control distributed power source actual output data> The next day, etc., non-variable output controllable distributed power output prediction result, and Output variable non-controllable, distributed power source actual output data <The following day, etc., non-variable output control, distributed power output prediction result, Prediction error calculation means 3E for obtaining the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error is provided, and the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error obtained by the prediction error calculation means 3E is supplied to the second provisional necessary power capacity estimation means 3C ′. Reflect it.

  Next, the operation of the power source capacity estimating apparatus for a small-scale power system shown in FIG. 9 or the power source capacity estimating method of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

  First, for a small-scale power system with a load facility that is a customer facility, a distributed power source that can generate power by itself, and a distributed power source system that can be charged and discharged, etc. In order to carry out the control, the past power demand actual data 36 by the load facility, the power demand forecast result 23 of the next day etc. from the weather forecast data related to temperature, weather, etc., as well as the output variable impossible control The output variable impossible control of the distributed power supply 9B The distributed power source actual output data 68 and the output variable impossible control distributed power source output prediction result 65 are obtained and stored in the database 2.

  In the above state, when a control instruction for power source capacity estimation is received from the input unit 1 (S1), as described with reference to FIG. 2, the power demand prediction error correction capacity (S2) and power of the output variable control distributed power source The required capacity (S3, S4) for the maximum demand fluctuation is calculated.

  On the other hand, when a control instruction for power supply capacity estimation is received (S1), it is determined in parallel whether or not there is an output variable disable control distributed power supply (S11), and if there is, the prediction error calculation means 3E is executed.

  This prediction error calculation means 3E reads the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data 68 and the next day output non-variable control distributed power source output prediction result 65 from the database 2, and outputs the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data in a predetermined period> The next day's output variable non-control distributed power output prediction result and the output variable non-control distributed power source actual output data <the next day's output variable non-control distributed power output prediction result, respectively. (Expression 28a and Expression 28b described later) are calculated (S12: prediction error calculation step) and supplied to provisional necessary power capacity estimation means 3C 'shown in FIG.

  Here, the provisional necessary power capacity estimation means 3C ′ adds the output variable impossible control distributed power supply maximum prediction error calculated in the prediction error calculation step S12 to the required power capacity estimated in the provisional necessary power capacity estimation step S5 of FIG. Is added to estimate the provisional required power supply capacity (S5a: provisional necessary power supply capacity estimation step).

  Further, a large necessary power capacity obtained using the maximum demand error in the provisional necessary power capacity estimating step S5a, and a large necessary power capacity obtained using the average error (see formulas 30a and 30b described later). From the required power capacity with a large capacity, the capacity lower limit value of the distributed power supply, and the capacity margin determined from the protection and durability of the power supply equipment, the required power capacity (the final solution applying the maximum demand error and average error) ( Equations 31 to 32, which will be described later, are estimated (S7a: final required power source capacity estimation step).

(2) About a demonstration example for estimating a required facility capacity when using an output variable non-controllable distributed power source 9B in an actual small-scale power system.

  FIG. 11 is a small diagram with a function for performing constant power reception point power control and simultaneous equal amount control used for explaining the second embodiment of the power source capacity estimating apparatus for a small-scale power system according to the present invention. It is a general block diagram of a scale power system. In the figure, the same or equivalent parts as in FIG. 3 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and detailed description thereof is omitted.

  In addition to the output variable controllable control distributed power supply 9A described in the first embodiment, this small scale power system is connected in parallel with an output variable non-controllable distributed power supply 9B that is difficult to control such as solar power generation or wind power generation. Has been.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a functional configuration of the supply and demand control system 13 in consideration of the output variable non-controllable distributed power source 9B.
In addition to the long-term power demand prediction processing unit 18, the supply and demand control system 13 adds an output variable non-distributed distributed power output long-term prediction processing unit 64 that performs long-term prediction after the next day of the output variable non-distributed power supply 9B. The next day's output variable non-distributed power output prediction result 65 is output together with the power demand prediction result 23 and sent to the power receiving point power target value calculation unit 19.

  The power receiving point power target value calculation unit 19 outputs the power receiving point power target value 15 in consideration of the next day output variable non-distributable power source output prediction result 65 received from the output variable non-distributable power source long-term prediction processing unit 64.

  Therefore, in the power source capacity estimation device for a small-scale power system according to the present invention, it is necessary to consider the error of the output variable non-distributed power source output prediction result 65 such as the next day for the necessary power source capacity X to be estimated.

  First, as shown in FIG. 6, if there is an error between the next-day power demand prediction result 23 and the actual power demand data 36, the power supply facility 9 needs to have a capacity for absorbing the error. It has been described that the required capacity is the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46.

  Therefore, the power supply equipment 9 of the small-scale power system needs to have a capacity for absorbing at least the error of the output variable non-distributed power output prediction result 65 such as the next day. This required capacity is assumed to be an output variable non-control power supply prediction error correction capacity 69.

  Similarly to the description of the maximum demand error p50 described in the above equation (13), the actual output result of the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply 9B (hereinafter, output variable non-controllable distributed power supply actual output data 68) and the next day output, etc. There is usually a prediction error between the variable non-distributed power supply output prediction result 65. Of these prediction errors, assuming that the positive-side prediction error maximum value is the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error p66 and the negative-side prediction error maximum value is the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error m67, (28a) and (28b).

Output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error p66 = max [output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data i68-next day etc. non-variable power supply output prediction result i65] (i = i0, iN; i0: initial value of sampling, iN: Final value of sampling) (28a)
Output variable uncontrollable distributed power supply maximum prediction error m67 = max [next day etc. output variable undistributable distributed power output prediction result i65−output variable uncontrollable distributed power source actual output data i68] (i = i0, iN; i0: initial value of sampling, iN: Final value of sampling) (28b)
Here, the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data i68 is the sampling i-th data of the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data 68, the next day output non-variable non-distributed power source output prediction result i65 is the next day non-output variable non-distributable power source, etc. This is the i-th sampling data of the output prediction result 65. The sampling period is a certain part of the day, for example, 0:00 to 24:00.

  As a result, the power source capacity estimation apparatus for a small-scale power system takes into consideration the error of the output variable non-distributed power output prediction result 65 such as the next day, and the required power capacity X ′ to be estimated is given by the above-described equation (19a). Instead of the expression (19d), the expressions (29a) to (29d) are obtained, respectively.

* Actual demand> Case 55 of forecast results * Application of method 1 (method obtained from maximum demand error 37)
Required power capacity X ′ = Power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + Power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 + Output variable control impossible power supply prediction error correction capacity 69
= Maximum demand error p50 + Maximum power demand actual data difference value p49 + Output non-variable control Distributed power source maximum prediction error m67 = Required power source capacity pa71 (29a)
* Application of method 2 (method obtained from average demand error 38)
Required power capacity X ′ = Power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + Power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 + Output variable control impossible power supply prediction error correction capacity 69
= Average demand error 38 + power demand actual data difference maximum value p49 + output variable impossible control distributed power supply maximum prediction error m67 = required power supply capacity pb72 (29b)
* In the case of actual demand <forecast result case 56 In this case, the power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 and the power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 are usually negative, and therefore take absolute values.

* Application of method 1 (method obtained from maximum demand error 37)
Required power capacity X ′ = abs (power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 + output variable control impossible power supply prediction error correction capacity 69)
= Abs (maximum demand error m52 + power demand actual data difference maximum value m51 + output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error p66) = required power supply capacity ma73 (29c)
* Application of method 2 (method obtained from average demand error 38)
Required power capacity X ′ = abs (power demand prediction error correction capacity 46 + power demand maximum fluctuation required capacity 44 + output variable control impossible power supply prediction error correction capacity 69)
= Abs (average demand error 38 + power demand actual data difference maximum value m51 + output variable impossible control distributed power supply maximum prediction error p66) = required power supply capacity mb74 (29d)
In the above equation, the function abs (x) indicates the absolute value of the argument x.

  Therefore, as the required power capacity X ′, the required power capacity pa 71, pb 72, ma 73, Expression (29a) to Expression (29d) according to the size of the actual demand and the prediction result and the application of the methods 1 and 2, mb74 is determined.

By the way, as the required power supply capacity X ′, the required power supply capacity pa71, ma73 obtained by applying the method 1 described above is the one that requires a larger capacity, so that the method (30a) and the method are used. Of the necessary power source capacities pb72 and mb74 obtained by application of 2, it is the one that requires a larger capacity, and therefore can be obtained by the equation (30b).
Method 1 → Required power supply capacity X ′ = max [Required power supply capacity pa71, Required power supply capacity ma73]
... (30a)
Method 2 → required power capacity X = max [necessary power capacity pb72, necessary power capacity mb74]
... (30b)
In addition, since the power supply facility capacity lower limit 27 + capacity margin 60 in the equations (26) and (27) described in the first embodiment can be shared also in the second embodiment, the final solution of the necessary power capacity is Equations (31) and (32) are obtained.

Method 1 → Required power supply capacity X ′ = max [Required power supply capacity pa71, Required power supply capacity ma73] + Power supply capacity lower current value 27 + Capacity margin 60 = Final required power supply capacity 75 (31)
Method 2 → required power supply capacity X ′ = max [necessary power supply capacity pb72, required power supply capacity mb74] + power supply capacity lower current value 27 + capacity margin 60 = final required power supply capacity 76 (32)
Therefore, according to the second embodiment as described above, when the output variable non-controllable distributed power source 9b is installed in the small-scale power system 5, the maximum prediction error p66, m67 related to the output variable non-controllable distributed power source 9b. Is calculated and reflected in the required power supply capacity X to estimate the required power supply capacity X ′ shown in Expressions 31 and 32, so that the required power supply capacity of the power supply facility 9 in the small-scale power system 5 can be calculated with high accuracy. Can be estimated.

  In addition, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the invention.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Input part, 2 ... Database, 3 ... Power supply capacity estimation process part, 3A ... Correction capacity calculation means, 3B ... Fluctuation capacity calculation means, 3C, 3C '... Temporary required power supply capacity estimation means, 3D, 3D' ... Final need Power supply capacity estimation means, 3E ... prediction error calculation means, 4 ... display unit, 5 ... small power system, 6 ... commercial power system, 7 ... interconnection line, 8 ... load equipment, 9 ... power supply equipment, 9A ... variable output Possible control distributed power supply, 9B ... Output variable control impossible control power supply, 13 ... Demand and supply control system, 14 ... Same simultaneous control system, 22 ... Program memory, 65 ... Next day etc. Uncontrolled distributed power supply actual output data.

Claims (5)

Power receiving point constant power control and simultaneous equal amount control for small-scale power systems that are connected to the commercial power system and supply the power from the commercial power system and the power generation output of the distributed power source to the load facility that is the customer facility In order to balance the power supply and demand by implementing the power supply capacity estimation device of the small-scale power system for estimating the required power capacity of the output variable control distributed power supply of the small-scale power system,
First storage means storing power demand actual data before the present time and power demand prediction results to be supplied to at least the load facility predicted from temperature and weather ;
The maximum power error and the average error are calculated separately for the power demand actual data in a predetermined period> the power demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result, and each is used as a power demand prediction error correction capacity. Correction capacity calculation means;
The power demand actual data in a predetermined period> The power demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data in each control period of the same amount control within the predetermined period. Fluctuation capacity calculation means for obtaining the power demand actual data difference maximum value from the absolute value of the difference between the start point and the end point value, and making it the required capacity for the power demand maximum fluctuation,
The power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result, and using the maximum demand error, the average error, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value, A first provisional necessary power capacity estimating means for estimating a required power capacity of the output variable controllable distributed power supply based on a predetermined arithmetic expression;
Great need power capacity and large power requirements capacitance of the capacitance from the required power capacity was determined using the average error and the output variable controllable distributed power capacity from the required power capacity was determined using the maximum demand error First required power capacity estimation means for estimating a required power capacity as a final solution to which the maximum demand error and average error are applied, from a capacity lower limit value and a capacity margin determined from protection and durability of power equipment. A power source capacity estimation device for a small-scale power system. Conduct power receiving point constant power control and simultaneous equal amount control for small-scale power systems that are connected to the commercial power system and supply the load facility with the power from the commercial power system and the power generation output of the distributed power source A power capacity estimation method for a small-scale power system that estimates a required power capacity of the distributed power supply of the small-scale power system in order to balance supply and demand,
An input unit that inputs a control instruction, a first storage unit that stores actual power demand data before the current time, and a power demand prediction result that is supplied to the load equipment after the current time from at least temperature and weather, and a CPU A power capacity estimation processing unit,
The power source capacity estimation processing unit
When receiving a control instruction for power supply capacity estimation from the input unit, the power demand actual data and the power demand prediction result for a predetermined period are extracted from the storage unit, and the power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand The maximum demand error and the average error are calculated separately from actual data <power demand prediction results (formula 12 and formula 13 below), and power demand forecast error correction capacities (formula 15a, formula 15b to formula 17a, formula 17b, respectively). ) To obtain a corrected capacity,
After obtaining the difference between the value of the start point and the end point of the actual power demand data for each control cycle of the same amount control within a predetermined period, the actual power demand data> the power demand prediction result from the difference, Fluctuation to obtain the required power (maximum power demand actual data difference required value (the following formulas 8b, 16 and 18), divided into the actual power demand data <the power demand forecast result). A capacity calculation step;
The power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result, and using the maximum demand error, the average error, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value, A first provisional required power supply capacity estimating step for estimating a required power supply capacity of the output variable control distributed power supply based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (following expressions 19a to 19d);
A required power capacity having a large capacity is selected from the required power capacity determined using the maximum demand error, and a required power capacity having a large capacity is selected from the required power capacity determined using the average error ( A first required power source capacity selection step to be described later (formula 20a, formula 20b);
Based on the required power capacity of each selected large capacity, the lower limit of the capacity of the distributed power supply that can control the output of the small-scale power system, and the capacity margin determined from the protection and durability of the power supply facilities, the final required application of the maximum demand error is applied. A power capacity estimation method for a small-scale power system, comprising: a first power capacity capacity estimation step for estimating a power capacity capacity and a final necessary power capacity by applying the average error (formulas 24 to 27 described later). . An input unit for inputting a control instruction, a storage unit for storing power demand actual data before and after the current time, and at least a power demand prediction result supplied to the load facility after the current time from temperature and weather, and a power capacity estimation processing unit A power capacity estimation program for estimating the required power capacity of a distributed power facility of a small-scale power system with a computer,
In the computer,
When the power supply capacity estimation processing unit receives a control instruction for power supply capacity estimation from the input unit, the power demand actual data and the power demand prediction result for a predetermined period are extracted from the storage unit, and the power demand actual data> power The maximum demand error and the average error are calculated by dividing the demand prediction result and the power demand actual data <the power demand prediction result (the following formulas 12 and 13), respectively, and the power demand prediction error correction capacity (the following formula 15a, After calculating the correction capacity calculating function for acquiring Expressions 15b to 17a, Expression 17b) and the difference between the start point and end point values of the actual power demand data for each control period of the same amount control within a predetermined period, The difference between the power demand actual data> the power demand forecast result and the power demand actual data <the power demand forecast result among the differences, and the power demand actual data difference maximum value which is the maximum value. A fluctuation capacity calculation function for acquiring a required capacity (hereinafter described with formulas 8b, 16, and 18), the power demand actual data> the power demand prediction result, and the power demand actual data <the power demand. Using the maximum demand error, the average error, and the actual power demand actual data difference maximum value separately from the prediction results, the output of the control distributed power source capable of variable output based on a predetermined arithmetic expression (formulas 19a to 19d described later) Necessary power supply capacity estimation function for estimating the required power supply capacity and a required power supply capacity having a large capacity from the required power supply capacity obtained using the maximum demand error, and obtained using the average error Necessary power capacity selection function for selecting a large required power capacity from the power capacity (formula 20a and 20b described later), the required power capacity of each selected large capacity and the output of the small power system The final required power capacity to which the maximum demand error is applied and the final required power capacity to which the average error is applied (formula 24 to be described later) from the lower limit of the capacity of the variable control distributed power supply and the capacity margin determined from the protection and durability of the power supply equipment A program for estimating a power supply capacity, which realizes a function of estimating a required power supply capacity for estimating Equation 27). In the apparatus for estimating a power capacity of a small-scale power system according to claim 1,
In addition to the output variable controllable distributed power supply in the small-scale power system, when an output variable non-controllable distributed power supply is provided,
The power source capacity estimation processing unit
The power demand actual data and the power demand prediction result stored in the first storage means are newly added to the output variable non-control distributed power source related to the output variable non-control distributed power source and the next day etc. Second storage means for storing a power output prediction result;
The output variable uncontrollable distributed power source actual output data and the next day non-variable control distributed power source output prediction result are read from the second storage means, and the output variable uncontrollable control distributed power source actual output data in a predetermined period> the next day equal output variable. Dividing into the non-controllable distributed power output prediction result and the output variable non-controllable distributed power actual output data <the next day's output variable non-controllable distributed power output prediction result, and the prediction for obtaining the output variable non-controllable distributed power supply maximum prediction error respectively. An error calculating means;
The second provisional necessary power supply for obtaining the required power supply capacity by adding the output variable impossible control distributed power supply maximum prediction error calculated by the prediction error calculating means to the required power supply capacity estimated by the first provisional required power supply capacity estimating means. Capacity estimation means;
And capacity lower limit value of the great need power capacity and the dispersed power source capacity which is obtained by using a great need power capacity and the average error of the capacity obtained by using the maximum demand error by the first provisional required power capacity estimating means And a second final required power capacity estimating means for estimating a required power capacity as a final solution to which the maximum demand error and the average error are applied from a capacity margin determined from protection and durability of power equipment. A power capacity estimation device for a small power system. In the power source capacity estimation method of the small-scale power system according to claim 2,
In addition to the output variable controllable distributed power supply in the small-scale power system, when an output variable non-controllable distributed power supply is provided,
The power demand actual data and the power demand prediction result stored in the first storage unit are newly added to the output variable non-control distributed power source related to the output variable non-control distributed power source and the next day output variable non-control distributed. A second storage unit storing the power output prediction result is provided;
The power source capacity estimation processing unit reads output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual output data and output variable non-controllable control distributed power source output prediction results such as next day from the second storage unit, and outputs the output variable non-controllable distributed power source actual result in a predetermined period. Output data> The next day's output variable non-controllable distributed power output prediction result and the output variable non-control distributed power source actual output data <The next day's output variable non-control distributed power output prediction result A prediction error calculating step for obtaining a distributed power source maximum prediction error (formula 28a and formula 28b described later);
The second provisional necessary power source for obtaining the required power source capacity by adding the output variable non-controllable distributed power source maximum prediction error calculated in the prediction error calculating step to the required power source capacity estimated in the first provisional necessary power source capacity estimating step. A capacity estimation step;
The second provisional required power capacity estimation step by a great need power capacity of the capacitor obtained by using the great need power capacity and the average error of the capacity obtained by using the maximum demand error (hereinafter Formula 30a, Formula 30b reference ) And the capacity lower limit value of the distributed power source and the capacity margin determined from the protection and durability of the power source equipment, the required power source capacity (formula 31 to formula 32 described later) as the final solution applying the maximum demand error and the average error is obtained. A method for estimating a power source capacity of a small-scale power system, comprising: a second final required power source capacity estimating step.

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